DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1106 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2008 ...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS NOW AFFECTING NORTHWESTERN VICTORIA COUNTY... ...DROUGHT CONDITIONS SPREAD SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST... SYNOPSIS... OVERALL THE PAST TWO WEEKS HAVE BEEN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH ON SEPTEMBER 14 EVENTUALLY MOVED NORTH BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HSA AND INTERACTED WITH AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE. AN INVERTED TROUGH ALSO AFFECTED THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ALL OF THIS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE HSA. UNFORTUNATELY...MOST OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY OCCURRED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HSA AND THEREFORE SOUTH OF THE DROUGHT STRICKEN AREA. IN FACT...MOST LOCATIONS WITHIN THE DROUGHT STRICKEN AREA RECEIVED LESS THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH. THUS...SEPTEMBER RAINFALL TURNED OUT TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH SOME LOCATIONS HAVING DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL EXCEEDING 3 INCHES. THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR PRODUCT...VALID FOR SEPTEMBER 30 2008 SHOWS THE FOLLOWING CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH TEXAS... SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS NOW EXIST IN VICTORIA COUNTY... GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 59... MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST SOUTH OF THE SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AREA AND INCLUDE THE REST OF VICTORIA COUNTY AND ESSENTIALLY ALL OF CALHOUN...GOLIAD...REFUGIO AND ARANSAS COUNTIES... ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXIST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AREA AND INCLUDE ESSENTIALLY ALL OF BEE AND SAN PATRICIO COUNTIES AND MOST OF LIVE OAK COUNTY...ONLY THE EXTREME SOUTH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY ARE NOT INCLUDED... PLEASE NOTE: THE INFORMATION BELOW PERTAINS ONLY TO THOSE COUNTIES EITHER IN SEVERE OR MODERATE DROUGHT STATUS OR HAVING ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS. THESE COUNTIES ARE VICTORIA...GOLIAD... BEE...LIVE OAK...CALHOUN...SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS AND REFUGIO. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS. ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE WEB SITE...AS OF OCTOBER 1 A BURN BAN REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LIVE OAK COUNTY. THUS THE BURN BAN HAS BEEN LIFTED FOR REFUGIO COUNTY. HOWEVER...RESIDENTS IN REFUGIO AND THE OTHER COUNTIES NOT IN BURN BANS SHOULD CONTACT COUNTY OFFICIALS TO ENSURE BURNING IS ALLOWED. ALSO...RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT WHEN DOING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WHICH INVOLVE FIRE OR SPARKS...BY MAKING SURE WATER IS READILY AVAILABLE SHOULD AN UNWANTED FIRE BEGIN. TO CONSERVE WATER...RESIDENTS SHOULD WATER THEIR LAWNS BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 AM AND ONLY WHEN NEEDED. WATERING LAWNS AND LANDSCAPES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WASTES WATER...SINCE MOST OF IT WILL EVAPORATE AND NOT PERCOLATE INTO THE SOIL AND ROOTS. AGRICULTURAL AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. THE LATEST SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY GRAPHIC FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SHOWS SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY BELOW NORMAL SOIL CONDITIONS OVER THE RAINFALL DEFICIT AREAS. OVERALL...CROP MOISTURE INDICES ARE IN THE ABNORMALLY DRY RANGE. ACCORDING TO THE OCTOBER 1 TEXAS A & M AGRICULTURAL PROGRAM CROP AND WEATHER REPORT...MUCH OF THE AREA NEEDED RAIN. THE SECOND CROP RICE HARVEST BEGAN AND THE SESAME HARVEST WAS UNDER WAY. LIVESTOCK REMAINED IN GOOD CONDITION. FIRE DANGER HAZARDS. ON AVERAGE...A MODERATE FIRE DANGER EXISTS OVER THE DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS OF SOUTH TEXAS. THE OCTOBER 2 KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES HAVE VALUES BETWEEN 400 AND 500 OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES...EXCEPT FOR LIVE OAK COUNTY WHERE THE VALUES RANGE BETWEEN 400 AND 500. INDICES WILL LIKELY RISE IF SUFFICIENT (IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL) RAINFALL IS NOT RECEIVED OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. RIVER AND HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS. RESERVOIR LEVELS FELL SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND CONTINUED HIGH WATER USAGE. AS OF OCTOBER 2...THE LEVEL AT CHOKE CANYON DAM WAS 216.6 FEET (86.2 PERCENT CAPACITY)...WITH LAKE CORPUS CHRISTI AT 90.7 FEET (77.2 PERCENT CAPACITY). THE COMBINED SYSTEM CAPACITY NOW STANDS AT 83.7 PERCENT... WHICH IS 1.1 PERCENTAGE POINTS LOWER THAN ON SEPTEMBER 18. THE POOL LEVEL AT COLETO CREEK FELL 0.2 FEET TO 94.7 FEET. OVERALL...RIVERS AND CREEKS IN THE RAINFALL DEFICIT AREAS ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW BASEFLOW. CLIMATE SUMMARY... OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS...2008 RAINFALL DEFICITS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE AREAS IN SEVERE AND MODERATE DROUGHT STATUS. AS OF OCTOBER 2...THE YEARLY RAINFALL DEFICIT AT VICTORIA WAS 12.13 INCHES. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...OCTOBER IS ONE OF THE WETTER MONTHS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. IF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT RECEIVED OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...RAINFALL FOR THE YEAR WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE AREA. SINCE THE TROPICAL SEASON FOR SOUTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE NEEDED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS... NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASING BY EARLY/MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE EIGHT TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD OCTOBER 9 THROUGH OCTOBER 15 INDICATES A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL. THE LATEST DROUGHT OUTLOOK PRODUCT...RELEASED OCTOBER 2... INDICATES THAT THE DROUGHT SITUATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR. FINALLY...THE SOIL MOISTURE OUTLOOK THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER EXPECTS NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SOIL CONDITIONS. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED ON OR AFTER OCTOBER 16 FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...LIVE OAK...BEE...SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO...GOLIAD...VICTORIA AND CALHOUN. RELATED WEB SITES...
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (INCLUDES DROUGHT AND SOIL MOISTURE OUTLOOKS... DROUGHT ARCHIVES AND TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL OUTLOOKS)...
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (INCLUDES ONLY TEXAS)...
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/dm_state.htm?tx,s
TEXAS DROUGHT MONITORING SITE...
http://www.txwin.net/monitoring/meteorological/drought/indices.htm
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...
http://www.drought.noaa.gov/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
AGNEWS: TEXAS A & M AGRICULTURAL PROGRAM (CROP AND WEATHER REPORT)...
http://agnews.tamu.edu/
TEXAS INTERAGENCY COORDINATION CENTER (TICC)...
http://www.tamu.edu/ticc/
TEXAS BURN BANS...
http://tfsfrp.tamu.edu/wildfires/decban.png
TEXAS KBDI...
http://webgis.tamu.edu/tfs/kbdi_daily/kbdicounty.png
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS.... http://www.weather.gov/water/
USGS... http://water.usgs.gov/ ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 300 PINSON DRIVE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 78406 PHONE: 361-289-0959 SR-CRP.webmaster@noaa.gov
KRR