DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
140 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2008

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS...

OVERVIEW...

THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED BY THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF
AGRICULTURE ON JUNE 26 SHOWS PROGRESSIVELY WORSENING DRY CONDITIONS
FROM MODERATE IN THE AREAS OF GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY TO
EXCEPTIONAL AT ELKHART.  SOME SPECIFICS INCLUDE BIG BOW 4 WSW, 5.91
INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE OCTOBER 1, 2007, WHICH IS 64 PERCENT OF
NORMAL (9.21 INCHES), AND ELKHART HAVING ONLY 3.49 INCHES OF
RAINFALL SINCE OCTOBER 1, 30 PERCENT OF THE NORMAL OF 11.65 INCHES.
FOR OTHER SELECTED LOCATIONS SINCE OCTOBER 1: HUGOTON 4.97 INCHES,
41 PERCENT OF NORMAL (12.06 INCHES); LAKIN 4.67 INCHES, 40 PERCENT
OF NORMAL (11.59 INCHES); RICHFIELD 10 WSW 3.64 INCHES, 36 PERCENT
OF NORMAL (10.17 INCHES) AND ULYSSES 3NE 4.32 INCHES, 39 PERCENT OF
NORMAL (10.97 INCHES).

FOR DODGE CITY, THERE HAS BEEN 11.49 INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE
OCTOBER 1, WHICH IS 78 PERCENT OF NORMAL.  HOWEVER, SINCE JUNE 2001
(85 MONTHS) THE RAINFALL DEFICIT IS 22.88 INCHES (ROUGHLY THE YEARLY
AVERAGE), AND IS IN THE TOP 20 PERCENT OF THE DRIEST 85-MONTH
PERIODS ON RECORD.  THE DRIEST SUCH PERIOD WAS OCTOBER 1932-NOVEMBER
1939 WHEN THERE WAS A DEFICIT OF 55.4 INCHES OR 65 PERCENT OF
NORMAL.

THE JET STREAM PATTERN RESPONSIBLE FOR VERY HEAVY TO EXCEPTIONAL
FLOODING RAINFALL FOR AREAS SUCH AS EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI INTO
PARTICULARLY HARD HIT IOWA HAS ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO THE INTENSE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS (EXTENDING INTO THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES).  THIS WEATHER PATTERN HAS
WEAKENED DURING THE LAST FEW WEEKS.  WHILE MORE "TYPICAL" SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS PROBABLE, NO SIGNIFICANT RELIEF IS
LIKELY FROM THE DROUGHT THROUGH THIS SUMMER.  OFFICIAL FORECASTS
FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) SUGGEST SOME IMPROVEMENT.

HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NO WATER FLOWING IN THE STREAM AND CREEK BEDS FOR
THE LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS DROUGHT.  FLOWS ALONG THE ARKANSAS
RIVER IN EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS ARE A RESULT OF RELEASES FROM JOHN
MARTIN RESERVOIR FOR IRRIGATION PURPOSES.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

RAINFALL THIS SPRING HAS BEEN INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MUCH GREEN UP
OF VEGETATION IN STANTON, MORTON AND STEVENS COUNTIES, AND CURED
VEGETATION WILL SUPPORT RAPID SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. THE POTENTIAL FOR
WILDFIRES WILL BE EXTREME WHENEVER STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES DEVELOP. IN GRANT, HASKELL AND SEWARD COUNTIES, THERE HAS
BEEN ENOUGH RAINFALL TO SUPPORT ABOUT 80% GREEN UP. CURED GRASSES
WILL CARRY FIRE EFFECTIVELY, AND RAPIDLY SPREADING WILDFIRES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHENEVER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE. A COUNTYWIDE
BURN BAN IS IN EFFECT IN MORTON COUNTY. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED UNLESS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURS.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS ARE VERY HIGH, GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL FOR MORTON AND STEVENS COUNTIES PER CPC THROUGH JULY 1.
YIELDS FROM DRY LAND CROPS HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED.  THERE
HAS ALSO BEEN CONSIDERABLE WIND EROSION PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS
IN STEVENS COUNTY.

OUTLOOK...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE
DROUGHT IMPACTED AREAS.  HOWEVER, FORECASTS FROM CPC THROUGH WEEK-2
TILT THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL.  THESE SAME OFFICIAL FORECASTS SHOW NO PROBABILITY SHIFTS
OF TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH AUGUST.

BERRY/RUTHI/HUTTON/SLOAN