DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
215 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2008
...DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...
SYNOPSIS...
DURING SEPTEMBER WE SAW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AT TIMES THIS HIGH WEAKENED AND ALLOWED
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE MOST
PART THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE WIDELY SCATTERED WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS. MOST LOCATIONS EXPERIENCED LESS THAN ONE HALF
INCH OF RAIN DURING SEPTEMBER. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY SAW 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. THE RAINFALL OBSERVED MAY HAVE PROVIDED SHORT TERM
DROUGHT RELIEF...BUT RAINFALL WAS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
ALLEVIATE THE LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
THE LACK OF RAINFALL DURING SEPTEMBER DID LITTLE TO HELP WITH
YEARLY RAINFALL DEFICITS. NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE RECORDED 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THERE
ARE STILL SECTIONS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THAT HAVE SEEN LESS THAN 10 INCHES OF
RAINFALL SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2008. RAINFALL DEFICITS ACROSS
MOST AREAS ARE 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS DOWN AS
MUCH AS 20 INCHES FOR THE YEAR TO DATE.
THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID SEPTEMBER 30TH SHOWED AN AREA OF
(D3)...EXTREME DROUGHT SEVERITY CENTERED ACROSS TRAVIS...
BASTROP...CALDWELL...AND HAYS COUNTIES. THE (D3) EXTREME DROUGHT
AREA EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF WILLIAMSON...BLANCO...KENDALL...
FAYETTE...THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF LLANO AND GILLESPIE COUNTIES...
THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF KENDALL COUNTY...THE NORTHERN HALF
OF LAVACA COUNTY...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF GONZALES COUNTY. A
LARGE AREA OF (D2)... SEVERE DROUGHT WAS SEEN ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION REMAIN IN (D0) ABNORMALLY DRY
TO (D1) MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
FIRE DANGER IS LOW TO MODERATE ACROSS THE REGION. MOST GRASS AND
FINE FUELS THAT WERE GREEN HAVE BEGUN TO TURN BROWN. THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL INCREASE THE WILDFIRE THREAT. SEVERAL
COUNTIES HAVE DROPPED THE COUNTY WIDE BURN BANS AND OTHERS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT COUNTY WIDE BURN BANS. AS OF OCTOBER 6TH BURN
BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 16 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE...ATASCOSA...
BASTROP...BURNET...CALDWELL...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GUADALUPE...KARNES...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...TRAVIS AND
WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. RESIDENTS IN COUNTIES NOT LISTED SHOULD
CONTACT THEIR LOCAL COUNTY JUDGE'S OFFICE BEFORE DECIDING TO
BURN...IN ORDER TO ENSURE THAT THE COUNTY HAS NOT ENACTED A BURN
BAN.
THE OCTOBER 6TH KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWS THAT MOST
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS IN THE 500 TO 700 RANGE. BASTROP...
TRAVIS...AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES WERE REPORTING A KBDI OF 700 TO
800. VAL VERDE COUNTY REPORTED A KBDI INDEX OF 200 TO 300 DUE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN LATE AUGUST. THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE
KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL
INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE
OF THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED
TO BRING THE SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO
800...WITH ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY
DRY SOIL. REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE
DAY TO ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
THE OCTOBER 1ST TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS
A AND M AGRICULTURAL PROGRAM...THE FOLLOWING AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS
WERE NOTED. MUCH OF THE REGION RECEIVED ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL
OR LESS DURING SEPTEMBER. THE YEAR TO DATE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL
REMAINS LESS THAN 60 PERCENT OF THE LONG TERM AVERAGE. FORAGES,
WHICH WERE IMPROVED WITH AUGUST RAINS, WERE SHOWING MOISTURE STRESS.
FALL CROPS MADE GOOD PROGRESS UNDER HEAVY IRRIGATION. THE PEANUT
HARVEST GAINED MOMENTUM. THE COTTON HARVEST CONTINUED. THE FALL
CABBAGE HARVEST BEGAN WITH EXCELLENT QUALITY AND HIGH YIELDS REPORTED.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
SINCE JANUARY 1, 2008 RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION HAS SEEN
10 TO 15 INCHES. HIGHER AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES HAVE
FALLEN ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND IN THE DEL RIO REGION ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE REGION ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS MANY
LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED LESS THAN 10 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE YEAR
SO FAR.
PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2008 TO OCTOBER 5, 2008 AND
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:
2008 RAINFALL NORMAL TO DATE DEPARTURE
AUSTIN MABRY 12.94 25.19 -12.25
AUSTIN BERGSTROM 14.29 25.79 -11.50
SAN ANTONIO 13.24 25.12 -11.88
DEL RIO 16.64 15.44 +1.20
SEPTEMBER IS NORMALLY ONE OF THE WETTEST MONTHS OF THE YEAR...
YET SEPTEMBER 2008 SAW MUCH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION. MOST LOCATIONS RECORDED LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH OF
RAIN DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.
DEL RIO SAW SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AUGUST AND THEY ARE
CURRENTLY AT 107 PERCENT OF NORMAL SINCE JANUARY 1ST. DURING
SEPTEMBER DEL RIO RECORDED 0.28 OF AN INCH OF RAIN AND THIS
MADE SEPTEMBER 2008 THE 8TH DRIEST ON RECORD.
SO FAR SAN ANTONIO HAS RECEIVED 53 PERCENT OF THE NORMAL YEARLY
RAINFALL SINCE JANUARY 1ST. SAN ANTONIO REPORTED 0.46 OF AN INCH
OF RAIN DURING SEPTEMBER MAKING SEPTEMBER 2008 THE 9TH DRIEST ON
RECORD. FOR THE PERIOD FROM JANUARY THROUGH SEPTEMBER SAN ANTONIO
REPORTED 13.24 INCHES OF RAIN AND THIS WAS THE 14TH DRIEST JANUARY
TO SEPTEMBER PERIOD ON RECORD.
AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECORDED 51 PERCENT OF THEIR NORMAL YEARLY
RAINFALL THROUGH SEPTEMBER 30TH. THE 0.02 OF AN INCH OF RAIN
RECORDED DURING SEPTEMBER PLACED THE MONTH IN A TIE FOR THE 3RD
DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD. FOR THE PERIOD OF JANUARY THROUGH
SEPTEMBER THE 12.94 INCHES OF RAINFALL MADE THIS PERIOD THE 7TH
DRIEST ON RECORD.
AUSTIN BERGSTROM HAS RECEIVED 55 PERCENT OF THEIR NORMAL YEARLY
RAINFALL TO DATE. DURING SEPTEMBER THE 0.34 OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL
REPORTED MADE SEPTEMBER THE THIRD DRIEST ON RECORD. FOR THE PERIOD
OF JANUARY THROUGH SEPTEMBER THE 14.29 INCHES OF RAINFALL MADE THIS
PERIOD THE 6TH DRIEST ON RECORD.
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY OCTOBER.
THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT
6 TO 10 DAYS ARE CALLING FOR GREATER CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE OUTLOOK FOR RAINFALL IS CALLING FOR EQUAL CHANCES
FOR ABOVE...BELOW OR NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA TO SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN NORMAL CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION.
THE OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER THROUGH JANUARY IS CALLING FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE...NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND
GREATER CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
THE MAIN IMPACTS OF DROUGHT HAVE BEEN TO AGRICULTURE...BUT THE
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE BEING FELT AS WATER USAGE REMAINS HIGH
AND RESERVOIRS...LAKES AND AQUIFERS CONTINUE FALLING.
MOST RIVERS...STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGE IS IN THE 25 TO 75
PERCENT (NORMAL) RANGE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WITH AN
AREA OF 10 TO 24 PERCENT (BELOW NORMAL) NOTED OVER THE LOWER
COLORADO AND GUADALUPE RIVER BASINS.
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF OCTOBER 6TH...
ALL AREA LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS ARE NOW SEVERAL FEET
BELOW NORMAL POOL ELEVATIONS AND CONTINUE TO FALL. LAKE AMISTAD
HAS RISEN DUE TO RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL UPSTREAM AND IN MEXICO DURING
SEPTEMBER. BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS
AND NORMAL POOLS.
NORMAL POOL (FT) LATEST ELEVATIONS (FT)
MEDINA LAKE 1064.2 1048.09
CANYON LAKE 909 899.81
LAKE TRAVIS 681 657.73
LAKE BUCHANAN 1020 1008.06
LAKE GEORGETOWN 791 771.80
LAKE AMISTAD 1117 1117.94
RESTRICTIONS...
MANY LOCATIONS HAVE IMPLEMENTED WATER RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LACK
OF RAINFALL AND DECREASING SUPPLIES. ALL LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO
STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED NOVEMBER 7TH OR SOONER AS
NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN AREA CONDITIONS.
RELATED WEB SITES...
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
http://www.srh.weather.gov/ewx/
NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
http://www.drought.noaa.gov/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
http://www.met.tamu.edu/osc/
UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
http://water.usgs.gov/
UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
http://www.swf.usace.army.mil/
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
http://www.ibwc.state.gov/
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA'S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS
BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE
COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND USGS.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE NAY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS 78130
830-606-3617