DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 415 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2008 ...CENTRAL TEXAS DROUGHT PERSISTS... -------------------------------------------------------------------- SYNOPSIS... MODERATE (D1) TO SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF BELL AND MILAM COUNTIES...WHERE RAINFALL HAS BEEN AS SCANT AS 1/2 INCH DURING THE LAST 30 DAYS. EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) HAS PERSISTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SINCE JUNE...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF WHICH REMAINS IN FAR SOUTHERN MILAM COUNTY. POCKETS OF ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) CONDITIONS REMAIN IN OTHER PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...WHERE ISOLATED 12-MONTH DEFICITS ARE AS HIGH AS 12 TO 15 INCHES. A FEW AREAS...PARTICULARLY IN EAST TEXAS...HAVE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS YEAR-TO-DATE. DROUGHT-STRESSED AND HEALTHY PASTURES ARE OFTEN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. -------------------------------------------------------------------- SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION SERVICE...STATEWIDE AGRICULTURAL LOSSES IN 2008 DUE TO DROUGHT ARE NEAR 1.4 BILLION DOLLARS. WELL OVER ONE BILLION DOLLARS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO CROPS... WITH ANOTHER 260 MILLION IN LOSSES RELATED TO LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION. DESPITE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS HAY PRODUCTION THIS YEAR...THE LATE SEASON RAINFALL HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME HAY CUTTING IN PREVIOUSLY DORMANT PASTURES. IN MILAM COUNTY...WHERE THE DROUGHT HAS BEEN BOTH SEVERE AND PROLONGED...VEHICLE-ANIMAL COLLISIONS HAVE BEEN NOTICEABLY MORE COMMON. THIS HAS BEEN ATTRIBUTED TO DROUGHT-STRESSED VEGETATION IMPELLING ANIMALS TO GRAZE ON HEALTHIER FORAGE IN DRAINAGE DITCHES ALONGSIDE ROADWAYS. FIRE DANGER DESPITE RECENT RAINS...SOME AREAS HAVE MAINTAINED SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION DEFICITS. THE VEGETATION IN THESE AREAS IS STRESSED OR DORMANT AND REMAINS RECEPTIVE TO FIRE INITIATION AND MAINTENANCE. OUTDOOR BURN BANS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR 7 COUNTIES IN THE NWS FORT WORTH AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...INCLUDING FANNIN...HILL...LAMPASAS... MCLENNAN...MONTAGUE...ROCKWALL...AND WISE. LATE SUMMER AND EARLY AUTUMN RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN CONSIDERABLE LATE SEASON GROWTH. AFTER THIS VEGETATION GOES DORMANT FOR THE WINTER...THE BIOMASS COULD SERVE AS FINE FUEL FOR COLD SEASON WILDFIRES...PARTICULARLY DURING EXTENDED RAIN-FREE PERIODS. -------------------------------------------------------------------- CLIMATE SUMMARY... LATE SUMMER RAIN ERASED MUCH OF THE NORTH TEXAS DROUGHT...BUT DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. YOUNGSPORT IN BELL COUNTY RECEIVED LESS THAN 3 INCHES OF RAIN (2.95) DURING THE 4-MONTH PERIOD JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER...AND ONLY 19.01 INCHES FROM OCTOBER 2007 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2008. THIS IS A 12-MONTH DEFICIT AROUND 17 INCHES. AREAS FROM LAMPASAS...TO WACO AND HILLSBORO...HAVE SEEN ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION SO FAR THIS MONTH. ELSEWHERE...OCTOBER RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY UNDER 2 INCHES. NORMAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF OCTOBER RANGE FROM 3 INCHES IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TO 5 INCHES IN EAST TEXAS. -------------------------------------------------------------------- PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC PATTERN THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH KEEPS TEXAS PRIMARILY UNDERNEATH MID-LEVEL RIDGING. AS A RESULT...THE 6-10 DAY (OCT 24-28) AND 8-14 DAY (OCT 26-NOV 1) OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SHOW A LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER...WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY ONE OF THE WETTEST MONTHS OF THE YEAR. BEYOND THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...THERE IS LITTLE TO INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFER FROM NORMAL THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR. AS A RESULT...THE U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK PORTENDS THAT THE CENTRAL TEXAS DROUGHT WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO 2009. -------------------------------------------------------------------- HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... THE SUMMER OF 2008 WAS ONE OF EXTRAORDINARY USAGE AND EVAPORATION. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS...RAINFALL FROM 2007 AND EARLY 2008 HAVE HELPED NEARLY EVERY RESERVOIR REMAIN ABOVE 80 PERCENT CAPACITY. ONE NOTABLE EXCEPTION IS LAKE WHITNEY...WHICH HAS FALLEN TO 34 PERCENT OF CONSERVATION. AT ONLY 62 PERCENT...LAKE BENBROOK IS OVER 8 FEET LOW. IN GENERAL...WATER SUPPLIES ARE STILL ADEQUATE TO HANDLE DEMAND... THUS THE CENTRAL TEXAS DROUGHT REMAINS PRIMARILY ONE OF AGRICULTURAL IMPACT. SOME LOCAL WATER SUPPLIES HAVE ENACTED STAGE 2 WATER RESTRICTIONS...BUT MOST JURISDICTIONS HAVE MAINTAINED CALLS FOR VOLUNTARY CONSERVATION WITHOUT FORMAL RESTRICTIONS. EVEN IF WATER RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR YOUR AREA...RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO BE SENSIBLE ABOUT WATER USAGE. AVOID WATERING BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6 PM...WHEN EVAPORATION LIMITS ITS EFFECTIVENESS. -------------------------------------------------------------------- NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... IF DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE...AN UPDATED DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NOVEMBER. -------------------------------------------------------------------- RELATED WEB SITES...
NWS FORT WORTH DROUGHT PAGE -
http://weather.gov/fortworth/drought.html
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM -
http://drought.gov/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER -
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER -
http://drought.unl.edu/
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR -
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER -
http://droughtreporter.unl.edu/ -------------------------------------------------------------------- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS... THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR FACILITATES CONTINUOUS DISCUSSION AMONG NUMEROUS AGENCIES...ACADEMIA...AND OTHER LOCAL INTERESTS. THE EXPERTISE OF ITS MEMBERS HAS BEEN INVALUABLE IN DEVELOPING DROUGHT PRODUCTS AND SERVICES FOR OUR CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS. THE DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER (MAINTAINED BY THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER) HAS ALLOWED VARIOUS IMPACTS TO BE COMPILED WITHIN ONE CLEARING HOUSE. THESE IMPACTS INCLUDE AGRICULTURAL ISSUES... HYDROLOGIC DEFICITS...FIRE DANGER...AND OTHER SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES. A SUMMARY OF THE SUBMITTED IMPACTS IS INCLUDED IN EACH DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE (TFS) CONTINUALLY MONITORS VEGETATION CONDITIONS AND WILDFIRE POTENTIAL. THE STATE AGENCY ALSO MAINTAINS A CURRENT LIST OF COUNTYWIDE BURN BANS. OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ARE SUMMARIZED FROM A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS CREATED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC). CPC IS A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) ENTITY WITHIN THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION (NCEP). -------------------------------------------------------------------- QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK ON OUR DROUGHT PRODUCTS AND SERVICES...PLEASE CONTACT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE 3401 NORTHERN CROSS BLVD. FORT WORTH, TX 76137 PHONE: (817) 429-2631 E-MAIL: SR-FWD.webmaster@noaa.gov -------------------------------------------------------------------- HUCKABY/25