DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 850 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2008
...VERY DRY PERIOD CONTINUES...
SYNOPSIS...
ACCORDING TO THE DROUGHT MONITOR VALID ON SEPTEMBER 30TH...MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY. PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHWEST ALABAMA ARE CLASSIFIED AS ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/. SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/ CONDITIONS COVER LESS THAN HALF OF JACKSON AND DE KALB COUNTIES IN ALABAMA AND FRANKLIN COUNTY TENNESSEE.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
STATE AND LOCAL DECLARATIONS: AS OF THE LATEST DECLARATION FROM THE STATE OF ALABAMA...ON SEPTEMBER 26TH...A DROUGHT ADVISORY HAS BEEN DECLARED FOR ALL OF NORTH ALABAMA. THIS IS THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE FOUR-LEVEL DROUGHT DECLARATION SYSTEM IN ALABAMA.
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS: GROUNDWATER AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS HAVE BOTH BEEN GRADUALLY DETERIORATING DURING THE LAST FEW WEEKS. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR GROUNDWATER LEVELS TO DROP...OR SOIL TO BECOME DRIER...THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE DROP HAS BEEN A BIT MORE PRECIPITOUS DUE TO THE PROLONGED DRY SPELL.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS: IMPACTS HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY SMALL TO CROPS...LIKELY BECAUSE THIS DRY SPELL IS COMING DURING HARVEST SEASON...AND RAIN WAS SUFFICIENT EARLIER IN THE YEAR. THERE ARE SOME IMPACTS TO PASTURELANDS... ESPECIALLY IN EXTREME NORTHEAST ALABAMA.
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS: THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX /KBDI/ IS OVER 500 IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO 500 ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY. VALUES OVER 500 INDICATE AN INCREASED RISK FOR WILDFIRES.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
NO RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE REGION SINCE SEPTEMBER 20TH. NORMAL RAINFALL FOR A WEEK IN EARLY OCTOBER IS AROUND ONE INCH.
RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 60 DAYS IS BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE...GENERALLY BY BETWEEN ONE AND FOUR INCHES. SOME OF THE DRIEST CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN IN NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY TENNESSEE...NEAR WOODS RESERVOIR.
THE YEAR-TO-DATE RAINFALL TOTAL AT HUNTSVILLE IS CURRENTLY 29.65 INCHES...AS OF OCTOBER 1ST. THIS IS ALMOST EQUAL TO 2006 /30.30 INCHES/...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW 2000 /31.62 INCHES/ AND 2005 /32.16 INCHES/. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL SUBSTANTIALLY MORE THAN LAST YEAR /20.86 INCHES/.
AREAWIDE...RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE GENERALLY RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 INCHES...BUT SOME OF THE WETTER SPOTS...SUCH AS CULLMAN COUNTY AND WESTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY...HAVE SEEN MORE THAN 40 INCHES.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL DEFICITS...AND PERCENT OF NORMAL: HUNTSVILLE...THROUGH OCTOBER 2ND: SEPTEMBER ... 1.33 INCHES ... DEFICIT 2.96 INCHES ... 31 PCT LAST 30 DAYS ... 1.33 INCHES ... DEFICIT 2.95 INCHES ... 31 PCT LAST 90 DAYS ... 7.53 INCHES ... DEFICIT 4.16 INCHES ... 64 PCT LAST 180 DAYS ... 16.31 INCHES ... DEFICIT 9.08 INCHES ... 64 PCT LAST 365 DAYS ... 37.44 INCHES ... DEFICIT 19.95 INCHES ... 65 PCT
SINCE JAN 2008... 29.65 INCHES ... DEFICIT 13.76 INCHES ... 68 PCT SINCE JAN 2007... 58.30 INCHES ... DEFICIT 42.62 INCHES ... 58 PCT SINCE JAN 2006...100.89 INCHES ... DEFICIT 57.54 INCHES ... 64 PCT SINCE JAN 2005...141.04 INCHES ... DEFICIT 74.90 INCHES ... 65 PCT
MUSCLE SHOALS...THROUGH OCTOBER 2ND: SEPTEMBER ... 0.86 INCH ... DEFICIT 3.44 INCHES ... 20 PCT LAST 30 DAYS ... 0.86 INCH ... DEFICIT 3.43 INCHES ... 20 PCT LAST 90 DAYS ... 6.44 INCHES ... DEFICIT 4.94 INCHES ... 57 PCT LAST 180 DAYS ... 17.33 INCHES ... DEFICIT 8.49 INCHES ... 67 PCT LAST 365 DAYS ... 40.44 INCHES ... DEFICIT 15.25 INCHES ... 73 PCT
SINCE JAN 2008... 28.78 INCHES ... DEFICIT 13.51 INCHES ... 68 PCT SINCE JAN 2007... 67.03 INCHES ... DEFICIT 31.06 INCHES ... 68 PCT SINCE JAN 2006...116.86 INCHES ... DEFICIT 37.03 INCHES ... 76 PCT SINCE JAN 2005...157.97 INCHES ... DEFICIT 51.72 INCHES ... 75 PCT
SCOTTSBORO...THROUGH OCTOBER 2ND: SEPTEMBER ... 0.99 INCH ... DEFICIT 3.82 INCHES ... 21 PCT LAST 30 DAYS ... 0.99 INCH ... DEFICIT 3.81 INCHES ... 21 PCT LAST 90 DAYS ... 11.05 INCHES ... DEFICIT 1.39 INCHES ... 89 PCT LAST 180 DAYS ... 19.50 INCHES ... DEFICIT 6.59 INCHES ... 75 PCT LAST 365 DAYS ... 45.60 INCHES ... DEFICIT 12.96 INCHES ... 78 PCT
SINCE JAN 2008... 36.40 INCHES ... DEFICIT 8.32 INCHES ... 81 PCT SINCE JAN 2007... 70.81 INCHES ... DEFICIT 32.60 INCHES ... 69 PCT SINCE JAN 2006...122.32 INCHES ... DEFICIT 39.78 INCHES ... 76 PCT SINCE JAN 2005...169.02 INCHES ... DEFICIT 51.77 INCHES ... 77 PCT
WINCHESTER...THROUGH OCTOBER 2ND: SEPTEMBER ... 0.44 INCH ... DEFICIT 4.02 INCHES ... 10 PCT LAST 30 DAYS ... 0.44 INCH ... DEFICIT 4.01 INCHES ... 10 PCT LAST 90 DAYS ... 7.80 INCHES ... DEFICIT 2.79 INCHES ... 74 PCT LAST 180 DAYS ... 15.76 INCHES ... DEFICIT 8.22 INCHES ... 66 PCT LAST 365 DAYS ... 37.11 INCHES ... DEFICIT 17.04 INCHES ... 69 PCT
SINCE JAN 2008... 29.72 INCHES ... DEFICIT 11.44 INCHES ... 72 PCT SINCE JAN 2007... 59.04 INCHES ... DEFICIT 36.38 INCHES ... 62 PCT SINCE JAN 2006...101.49 INCHES ... DEFICIT 48.19 INCHES ... 68 PCT SINCE JAN 2005...145.18 INCHES ... DEFICIT 58.76 INCHES ... 71 PCT
CULLMAN...THROUGH OCTOBER 2ND: SEPTEMBER ... 1.40 INCHES ... DEFICIT 3.55 INCHES ... 28 PCT LAST 30 DAYS ... 1.40 INCHES ... DEFICIT 3.55 INCHES ... 28 PCT LAST 90 DAYS ... 13.03 INCHES ...*SURPLUS* 0.37 INCH ...103 PCT LAST 180 DAYS ... 24.57 INCHES ... DEFICIT 2.46 INCHES ... 91 PCT LAST 365 DAYS ... 50.27 INCHES ... DEFICIT 9.55 INCHES ... 84 PCT
SINCE JAN 2008... 42.45 INCHES ... DEFICIT 3.52 INCHES ... 92 PCT SINCE JAN 2007... 72.42 INCHES ... DEFICIT 33.51 INCHES ... 68 PCT SINCE JAN 2006...128.35 INCHES ... DEFICIT 37.54 INCHES ... 77 PCT SINCE JAN 2005...180.95 INCHES ... DEFICIT 44.90 INCHES ... 80 PCT
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.
THE OUTLOOK FROM OCTOBER THROUGH DECEMBER FAVORS EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL...BELOW NORMAL...OR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE LATEST SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...VALID THROUGH DECEMBER... INDICATES THAT THE DROUGHT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
STREAMFLOW...SOIL MOISTURE...AND GROUNDWATER...ARE ALL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NORMALLY THEY WOULD ALL BE LOW ANYWAY...SO THEY ARE ACTUALLY UNUSUALLY LOW.
LAKE LEVELS ARE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS ARE BEAR CREEK LAKE...WHICH IS BEING HELD BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CONSTRUCTION...AND LITTLE BEAR CREEK LAKE...WHICH WAS DROPPED TO A LOWER LEVEL EARLIER IN THE SUMMER AND HAS NOT RECOVERED.
THE OUTLOOK FOR RIVER AND LAKE LEVELS IS GENERALLY FOR LITTLE CHANGE OR A SLOW FALL. THE OUTLOOK FOR SOIL MOISTURE AND GROUNDWATER IS FOR DRYING TO CONTINUE.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
DUE TO THE MORE LIMITED IMPACT OF THE ONGOING DROUGHT...THE NEXT SCHEDULED DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY OCTOBER 16TH. UPDATES WILL OCCUR SOONER IF CONDITIONS DEPICTED IN THIS STATEMENT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY...OR IF MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE OBSERVED.
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RELATED WEB SITES... /ALL LOWER CASE/
FOR MUCH MORE DROUGHT INFORMATION...INCLUDING LINKS TO MANY DROUGHT INDICATORS...VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.
FOR A TABLE OF PRECIPITATION DEFICITS...GO TO HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE/PRODUCTVIEW.PHP?PIL=PNS&SID=HUN
YOU MAY NEED TO CLICK ON THE PREVIOUS VERSIONS NUMBERS TO ACCESS THE LATEST TABULAR INFORMATION.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...
SOME DATA USED IN THIS STATEMENT WERE PROVIDED BY THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...COUNTY EXTENSION AGENTS...THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY...AND THE STATES OF ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ON THE DROUGHT...CONTACT: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 320A SPARKMAN DRIVE HUNTSVILLE AL 35805 PHONE: 256-890-8503 SR-HUN.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
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ELLIOTT