DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
112 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008
...SUMMERTIME CONVECTION AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY BRING
RELIEF TO SOME AREAS...BUT DROUGHT CONDITIONS LINGER ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...
SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LAST FEW WEEKS
HAS ALLOWED MOISTURE LEVELS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST
TEXAS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. THE MAIN AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS
WERE THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...BIG BEND REGION...MARFA PLATEAU...TRANS
PECOS REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS. EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALSO ADDED EXTRA LIFT FOR MUCH
OF THIS CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.
ON JULY 25...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY MOVED ACROSS THE BIG BEND
REGION BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FELL ACROSS THE
TRANS PECOS REGION WITH THE VAN HORN REGION AND BIG BEND AREA
GETTING WELCOME RAINFALL AS WELL. OVERALL...DROUGHT CONDITIONS
IMPROVED IN MOST OF THESE AREAS.
THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID JULY 29 SHOWED IMPROVEMENT ACROSS
MOST AREAS OF WEST TEXAS. THE PERMIAN BASIN IS THE ONLY AREA WHERE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATED. PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...
MUCH OF THE BIG BEND...AND THE TRANS PECOS REGION WERE IN A
MODERATE DROUGHT (D1). SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) WAS OCCURRING NEAR THE
RIO GRANDE IN THE SOUTHERN BIG BEND REGION AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PERMIAN BASIN. MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN WAS PLACED UNDER
EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) CONDITIONS AS VERY LITTLE RAIN FELL ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
HAS GENERALLY COME TO AND END. OVERALL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON
IN WEST TEXAS GENERALLY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY
THROUGH AUGUST. ALTHOUGH A LONGER THAN NORMAL SEASON OCCURRED THIS
YEAR...GREEN UP HAS OCCURRED ACROSS MOST AREAS OF WEST TEXAS AND FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE SLOWLY IMPROVED. MOST OF THE TEXAS COUNTIES
IN THE MIDLAND CWA STILL REMAIN UNDER A BURN BAN AT THIS TIME.
THE JULY 31 KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWS THAT MOST OF
WEST TEXAS FALLS WITHIN THE 400 TO 600 RANGE...WITH MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN IN THE 500 TO 700 RANGE. THE TEXAS FOREST
SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A SYSTEM FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR. IT IS A
NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS
AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX
RANGES FROM 0 TO 800...WITH 0 REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND
800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL. NOTE THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE
QUICKLY FROM DAY TO DAY AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.
FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED BY 20 FOOT WINDSPEEDS GREATER THAN 20 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LESS THAN 15 PERCENT. WHEN THESE
CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED OR MET...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AS APPROPRIATE.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
ACCORDING TO THE JULY 30 TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY THE
TEXAS A AND M AGRICULTURAL PROGRAM...THE FOLLOWING AGRICULTURAL
IMPACTS WERE NOTED ACROSS WEST TEXAS...THE REGION WAS HOT AND DRY
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SPRING-PLANTED ONIONS WERE HARVESTED.
CHILES WERE IN FULL BLOOM AND DEVELOPING FRUIT. MANY AREA FARMERS
WERE DECLARING THEIR COTTON LOST. SORGHUM SHOWED SIGNS OF SEVERE
STRESS FROM LACK OF MOISTURE. AREA RANCHERS WERE TRYING TO DEAL
WITH HIGH FEED COSTS AND NO GRASS.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) OUTLOOKS INDICATE EQUAL CHANCES
FOR ABOVE AVERAGE...AVERAGE...OR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 14 DAYS. IT IS SHOWING NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL FOR THE SAME PERIOD. IN ADDITION...CPC
CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH OCTOBER.
THIS IS LIKELY TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THE CONTINUATION OF THE
FALL MONSOON SEASON THAT GENERALLY BRINGS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO
WEST TEXAS IN THE FORM OF RAINFALL.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
WHILE THE FORECAST AND HYDROLOGIC SERVICES AREA (HSA) CONTINUE UNDER
DROUGHT CONDITIONS...NO KNOWN WATER RESTRICTIONS OR ADVISORIES ARE
KNOWN ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS VARY GREATLY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MANY LOCATIONS ONLY RECEIVING SMALL AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE MONTH.
MUCH OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO SEE 5 TO 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE MONTH OF JULY. LOCATIONS ALONG THE
PECOS RIVER HAVE SMALL POCKETS THAT HAVE SEEN MORE THAN 100 PERCENT
OF THE MONTHLY NORMAL VALUES FOR JULY.
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...
POOL 24-HR % CONSERVATION
TDY CHG. CAPACITY
LAKE JB THOMAS 2216.07 -0.03 8
LAKE COLORADO CITY 2064.70 -0.02 74
CHAMPION CREEK RESERVOIR 2026.53 -0.02 22
NATURAL DAM SALT LAKE 2447.32 -0.01 49
MOSS CREEK LAKE 2319.00 -0.39 34
BRANTLEY RES...CARLSBAD 3249.98 -0.02 64
LAKE AVALON - 3N CARLSBAD 3173.81 0.11 37
RED BLUFF DAM 2811.09 -0.05 24
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY SEPTEMBER 1 OR SOONER AS NECESSARY IN
RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN AREA CONDITIONS.
RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES:
OUR LOCAL HYDROLOGY WEB PAGE...
http://www.srh.weather.gov/maf/drought/
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...
http://www.drought.noaa.gov/
OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST...
http://www.met.tamu.edu/osc/
NWS ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS)...
http://www.weather.gov/ahps/
US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS)...
http://water.usgs.gov/
US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE)...
http://www.mvr.usace.army.mil/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION (IBWC)...
http://www.ibwc.state.gov/
TEXAS INTERAGENCY COORDINATION CENTER...
http://www.tamu.edu/ticc/
TEXAS FOREST SERVICE...
http://txforestservice.tamu.edu/
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE IBWC...THE USDA...STATE AND
REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION
CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS
AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2500 CHALLENGER DRIVE
MIDLAND TEXAS 79706
PHONE: 432.563.5006
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