DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
100 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2008

...DROUGHT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY IN EAST TENNESSEE, EXTREME SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA, AND CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA...

SYNOPSIS...

MOST PLACES HAVE RECEIVED NO RAIN ALL SINCE MID-SEPTEMBER, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF RAINS OVERNIGHT ON OCTOBER 8. THIS IS NORMAL FOR THE SEASON, BUT ONLY
SERVES TO MAKE ALREADY DRY CONDITIONS DRIER.

ALL GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTIONS ARE APPROXIMATE.

D4 (EXCEPTIONAL) DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN OUTSIDE THE REGION.

D3 (EXTREME) DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST IN CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES IN NORTH
CAROLINA, AND IN TENNESSEE IN AN AREA ENCLOSED BY A LINE FROM CONASAUGA TO
ETOWAH TO OLIVER SPRINGS TO LAKE CITY TO ROGERSVILLE TO ERWIN. THIS INCLUDES
THE KNOXVILLE METRO AREA.

D2 (SEVERE) DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF EAST
TENNESSEE. D2 CONDITIONS ALSO COVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN STRIP OF LEE, SCOTT,
AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN VIRGINIA. THIS AREA INCLUDES MOST OF THE TRI-CITIES
METRO AREA OF TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA AND INCLUDES BRISTOL, VA.

D1 (MODERATE) DROUGHT EXISTS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA,
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NORTON.

D0 (ABNORMALLY DRY) CONDITIONS DO NOT EXIST IN EAST TENNESSEE, EXTREME
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

THIS TIME OF YEAR IS NORMALLY THE DRIEST SEASON, SO IMPACTS MAY BE HIDDEN BY
WHAT APPEAR TO BE NORMAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, CONTINUED DRYNESS, NORMAL
OR NOT, WILL ONLY DEEPEN DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

SPRINGS, WELLS, AND SMALL STREAMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THAT REBOUNDED
IN EARLY SEPTEMBER CONTINUE TO DROP BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS, SOME QUITE 
DRAMATICALLY. EVEN WITH THE RAIN ON OCTOBER 8, MANY STREAMS DID NOT REACH 
NORMAL LEVELS, AND ARE QUICKLY DROPPING TO PREVIOUS LEVELS. EVEN LARGER 
TRIBUTARIES OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER ARE VISIBLY DROPPING.

SOME WATER DISTRICTS ARE ON LOCAL RESTRICTIONS. FOR INFORMATION ON LOCAL WATER
RESTRICTIONS, PLEASE CALL YOUR WATER BOARD. NO WIDESPREAD FIRE RESTRICTIONS ARE
KNOWN TO EXIST. CONTACT LOCAL AUTHORITIES FOR FURTHER INFORMATION OR PERMITS.
SEE STATE WEBSITES AT THE END OF THIS STATEMENT.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

RAINFALL AT INDIVIDUAL POINTS IS NOT ALWAYS AN ACCURATE REFLECTION OF AN AREA`S
PRECIPITATION. LONG TERM RAINFALL OVER LARGE AREAS IS A MORE REALISTIC
REPRESENTATION A REGION'S RAIN SITUATION. BELOW ARE THE DATA FOR THE MAIN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OBSERVATION POINTS FOR THE PERIOD STARTING
JANUARY 1, 2007. THE DATA GO THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 8, 2008:

SITE            RAIN   NORM   DEFICIT %NORM
CHATTANOOGA     72.44  96.96  -24.52  75
KNOXVILLE       68.46  86.00  -17.54  80
OAK RIDGE       69.48  97.58  -28.10  71
TRI-CITIES      50.48  74.53  -24.05  68
NWS MORRISTOWN  56.76  81.35  -24.59  70

RAIN TOTALS OVER LARGE AREAS SUCH AS RESERVOIR DRAINAGE BASINS IS A MUCH BETTER
INDICATOR OF AN AREA'S "RAIN HEALTH" THAN SIMPLE POINT TOTALS. BELOW ARE THE
DATA FOR THE TVA BASINS IN THE UPPER TENNESSEE RIVER DRAINAGE FOR THE PERIOD
STARTING JANUARY 1, 2007. THE DATA GO THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2008:

BASIN                RAIN    NORM   DEFICIT %NORM
SOUTH HOLSTON        60.46   78.52  -18.06  77
WATAUGA              63.60   83.10  -19.50  77
BOONE                60.18   80.12  -19.94  75
CHEROKEE             57.78   77.63  -19.85  74
DOUGLAS              61.19   83.67  -22.48  73
FONTANA              75.11  103.51  -28.40  73
NORRIS               59.42   81.21  -21.79  73
MELTON HILL          64.06   87.58  -23.52  73
CHATUGE              67.66   82.23  -14.57  82
NOTTELY              77.18   96.69  -19.51  80
HIWASSEE             69.83  100.95  -31.12  69
FT. LOUDOUN/TELLICO  60.01   85.87  -25.86  70
WATTS BARR           68.00   90.33  -22.33  75
CHICKAMAUGA          60.48   93.55  -33.07  65
NICKAJACK            60.12   94.53  -34.41  64
GUNTERSVILLE         58.89   95.53  -36.64  62

AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION DURING THE LAST WEEK HAVE BEEN NEAR NORMAL.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THROUGH ABOUT MID-OCTOBER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AND
RAINFALL BELOW NORMAL.

THE REMAINDER OF OCTOBER IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT NORMAL, WHICH MEANS WARM AND
DRY.

FOR NOVEMBER THROUGH JANUARY, CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE FOR SLIGHTLY WARM AND DRY.

WE ARE SMACK DAB IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIEST PART OF THE YEAR. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE IS USUALLY TROPICAL STORMS THAT PASS UP THIS WAY.
TROPICAL STORM SEASON OFFICIALLY CONTINUES UNTIL OCTOBER 31, BUT THE PEAK IS
WELL PAST.

THE LATEST OUTLOOK (ISSUED OCTOBER 2) IS FOR THE DROUGHT TO PERSIST OVER THE
REGION.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

DURING THE LAST WEEK STREAMS IN THE REGION HAVE DROPPED DRAMATICALLY. SMALLER
FEEDER STREAMS ARE THE MOST APPARENT, WITH LARGER RIVERS SLOWER TO RESPOND. THE
TENNESSEE RIVER, BEING CONTROLLED FOR ITS ENTIRE LENGTH, IS ALWAYS THE LAST TO
RESPOND.

THE OUTLOOK FOR LARGE TRIBUTARIES OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER THROUGH AUTUMN IS FOR
A LESS THAN NORMAL CHANCE OF FLOODING. THIS WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON THE AMOUNT
OF RAIN OVER THE LONG TERM AND THE NUMBER OF HEAVY RAIN EVENTS IN THE PERIOD.
IT WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE HYDROGRAPHY OF THE INDIVIDUAL STREAM. THINGS LIKE
LOCAL GEOGRAPHY, WHETHER SINKHOLES ACCOUNT FOR MUCH UNDERGROUND STORAGE, LOCAL
LAND USE, FLORA, AND SO FORTH, WILL ALSO HAVE AN INFLUENCE.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON OR BEFORE
NOVEMBER 6, 2008 DEPENDING ON THE SITUATION. IF NO LARGE SCALE CHANGES OCCUR IN
THE DROUGHT SITUATION, IT WILL BE LATER THAN SOONER. WE WILL MONITOR THE
SITUATION AND KEEP YOU ABREAST.

RELATED WEB SITES...
FOR ONE-STOP SHOPPING ON THE DROUGHT IN THE REGION GO TO...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mrx/hydro/drought07/main.php
OR YOU CAN GO TO...
http://weather.gov/
THEN CLICK ON THE EAST TENNESSEE REGION, AND THEN CLICK ON THE DROUGHT 
INFORMATION LINK AT THE BOTTOM OF THE MORRISTOWN, TENNESSEE HOME PAGE.

YOU MAY ALSO VISIT...
http://www.tva.gov/

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LAKES LEVELS, STREAMFLOWS, AND RAINFALL IN THE 
TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY SYSTEM.

STREAMFLOW DATA CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED FROM THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
AT...
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt/
AND THEN CLICKING ON YOUR STATE OF INTEREST.

ADDITIONAL LONG TERM STREAMFLOW FORECASTS CAN BE OBTAINED AT THE NWS
MORRISTOWN "ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES" WEBSITE AT...
http://ahps.srh.noaa.gov/index.php?wfo=mrx
THE TENNESSEE DIVISION OF FORESTRY HAS FIRE INFORMATION AT...
http://burnsafetn.org/
THE VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY HAS FIRE INFORMATION AT...
http://www.dof.virginia.gov/
THE NORTH CAROLINA DIVISION OF FOREST RESOURCES IS LOCATED AT...
http://www.dfr.state.nc.us/
FOR SPECIFIC DATA, DROUGHT INDICES, AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT PICTURE WITH
CLICKABLE ZOOMING, GO TO...
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

APPRECIATION FOR THE DATA IN THIS DOCUMENT GOES TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AUTHORITY (TVA), UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS), THE STATES OF
TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA, THE COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA, THE U.S. ARMY CORPS
OF ENGINEERS (USACE), THE TENNESSEE DIVISION OF FORESTRY, THE VIRGINIA
DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY, THE NORTH CAROLINA DIVISION OF FOREST RESOURCES, THE
NATIONAL PARK SERVICE (NPS), THE NATIONAL FOREST SERVICE (NFS), THE UNIVERSITY
OF NEBRASKA AT LINCOLN FOR HOSTING THE DROUGHT MONITOR WEBSITE, AND NUMEROUS
COUNTY, CITY, AND UTILITY OFFICIALS. ALSO, THANKS TO VARIOUS MEDIA OUTLETS
INCLUDING TELEVISION AND RADIO STATIONS AND NEWSPAPERS, FOR ASKING THE
QUESTIONS THE DRIVE THE GATHERING OF DATA AND INFORMATION ON DROUGHT IMPACTS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

FOR MORE INFORMATION OR FOR MEDIA INTERVIEWS PLEASE CONTACT:

BRIAN BOYD
SENIOR SERVICE HYDROLOGIST/METEOROLOGIST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
5974 COMMERCE BLVD.
MORRISTOWN, TN 37814
423-586-1964 (MEDIA ONLY; FOR IMMEDIATE RESPONSE)
423-586-2296 (ALL OTHER CALLS; MAY GET VOICE MAIL)
423-586-6429 (FOR IMMEDIATE RESPONSE, NON-MEDIA CALLS, IF 2296 IS NOT AVAILABLE)
EMAIL: Brian.Boyd@noaa.gov 
WEBSITE: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mrx/ 

NOTE: IN THE EVENT THE ABOVE PERSON IS NOT AVAILABLE, OTHER STAFF MEMBERS WILL
BE ABLE TO HELP YOU.