DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 100 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2008 ...DROUGHT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY IN EAST TENNESSEE, EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA... SYNOPSIS... MOST PLACES HAVE RECEIVED NO RAIN ALL SINCE MID-SEPTEMBER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RAINS OVERNIGHT ON OCTOBER 8. THIS IS NORMAL FOR THE SEASON, BUT ONLY SERVES TO MAKE ALREADY DRY CONDITIONS DRIER. ALL GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTIONS ARE APPROXIMATE. D4 (EXCEPTIONAL) DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN OUTSIDE THE REGION. D3 (EXTREME) DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST IN CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA, AND IN TENNESSEE IN AN AREA ENCLOSED BY A LINE FROM CONASAUGA TO ETOWAH TO OLIVER SPRINGS TO LAKE CITY TO ROGERSVILLE TO ERWIN. THIS INCLUDES THE KNOXVILLE METRO AREA. D2 (SEVERE) DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF EAST TENNESSEE. D2 CONDITIONS ALSO COVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN STRIP OF LEE, SCOTT, AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN VIRGINIA. THIS AREA INCLUDES MOST OF THE TRI-CITIES METRO AREA OF TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA AND INCLUDES BRISTOL, VA. D1 (MODERATE) DROUGHT EXISTS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, INCLUDING THE CITY OF NORTON. D0 (ABNORMALLY DRY) CONDITIONS DO NOT EXIST IN EAST TENNESSEE, EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... THIS TIME OF YEAR IS NORMALLY THE DRIEST SEASON, SO IMPACTS MAY BE HIDDEN BY WHAT APPEAR TO BE NORMAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, CONTINUED DRYNESS, NORMAL OR NOT, WILL ONLY DEEPEN DROUGHT CONDITIONS. SPRINGS, WELLS, AND SMALL STREAMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THAT REBOUNDED IN EARLY SEPTEMBER CONTINUE TO DROP BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS, SOME QUITE DRAMATICALLY. EVEN WITH THE RAIN ON OCTOBER 8, MANY STREAMS DID NOT REACH NORMAL LEVELS, AND ARE QUICKLY DROPPING TO PREVIOUS LEVELS. EVEN LARGER TRIBUTARIES OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER ARE VISIBLY DROPPING. SOME WATER DISTRICTS ARE ON LOCAL RESTRICTIONS. FOR INFORMATION ON LOCAL WATER RESTRICTIONS, PLEASE CALL YOUR WATER BOARD. NO WIDESPREAD FIRE RESTRICTIONS ARE KNOWN TO EXIST. CONTACT LOCAL AUTHORITIES FOR FURTHER INFORMATION OR PERMITS. SEE STATE WEBSITES AT THE END OF THIS STATEMENT. CLIMATE SUMMARY... RAINFALL AT INDIVIDUAL POINTS IS NOT ALWAYS AN ACCURATE REFLECTION OF AN AREA`S PRECIPITATION. LONG TERM RAINFALL OVER LARGE AREAS IS A MORE REALISTIC REPRESENTATION A REGION'S RAIN SITUATION. BELOW ARE THE DATA FOR THE MAIN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OBSERVATION POINTS FOR THE PERIOD STARTING JANUARY 1, 2007. THE DATA GO THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 8, 2008: SITE RAIN NORM DEFICIT %NORM CHATTANOOGA 72.44 96.96 -24.52 75 KNOXVILLE 68.46 86.00 -17.54 80 OAK RIDGE 69.48 97.58 -28.10 71 TRI-CITIES 50.48 74.53 -24.05 68 NWS MORRISTOWN 56.76 81.35 -24.59 70 RAIN TOTALS OVER LARGE AREAS SUCH AS RESERVOIR DRAINAGE BASINS IS A MUCH BETTER INDICATOR OF AN AREA'S "RAIN HEALTH" THAN SIMPLE POINT TOTALS. BELOW ARE THE DATA FOR THE TVA BASINS IN THE UPPER TENNESSEE RIVER DRAINAGE FOR THE PERIOD STARTING JANUARY 1, 2007. THE DATA GO THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY, OCTOBER 9, 2008: BASIN RAIN NORM DEFICIT %NORM SOUTH HOLSTON 60.46 78.52 -18.06 77 WATAUGA 63.60 83.10 -19.50 77 BOONE 60.18 80.12 -19.94 75 CHEROKEE 57.78 77.63 -19.85 74 DOUGLAS 61.19 83.67 -22.48 73 FONTANA 75.11 103.51 -28.40 73 NORRIS 59.42 81.21 -21.79 73 MELTON HILL 64.06 87.58 -23.52 73 CHATUGE 67.66 82.23 -14.57 82 NOTTELY 77.18 96.69 -19.51 80 HIWASSEE 69.83 100.95 -31.12 69 FT. LOUDOUN/TELLICO 60.01 85.87 -25.86 70 WATTS BARR 68.00 90.33 -22.33 75 CHICKAMAUGA 60.48 93.55 -33.07 65 NICKAJACK 60.12 94.53 -34.41 64 GUNTERSVILLE 58.89 95.53 -36.64 62 AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION DURING THE LAST WEEK HAVE BEEN NEAR NORMAL. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... THROUGH ABOUT MID-OCTOBER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AND RAINFALL BELOW NORMAL. THE REMAINDER OF OCTOBER IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT NORMAL, WHICH MEANS WARM AND DRY. FOR NOVEMBER THROUGH JANUARY, CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE FOR SLIGHTLY WARM AND DRY. WE ARE SMACK DAB IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIEST PART OF THE YEAR. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE IS USUALLY TROPICAL STORMS THAT PASS UP THIS WAY. TROPICAL STORM SEASON OFFICIALLY CONTINUES UNTIL OCTOBER 31, BUT THE PEAK IS WELL PAST. THE LATEST OUTLOOK (ISSUED OCTOBER 2) IS FOR THE DROUGHT TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... DURING THE LAST WEEK STREAMS IN THE REGION HAVE DROPPED DRAMATICALLY. SMALLER FEEDER STREAMS ARE THE MOST APPARENT, WITH LARGER RIVERS SLOWER TO RESPOND. THE TENNESSEE RIVER, BEING CONTROLLED FOR ITS ENTIRE LENGTH, IS ALWAYS THE LAST TO RESPOND. THE OUTLOOK FOR LARGE TRIBUTARIES OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER THROUGH AUTUMN IS FOR A LESS THAN NORMAL CHANCE OF FLOODING. THIS WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER THE LONG TERM AND THE NUMBER OF HEAVY RAIN EVENTS IN THE PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE HYDROGRAPHY OF THE INDIVIDUAL STREAM. THINGS LIKE LOCAL GEOGRAPHY, WHETHER SINKHOLES ACCOUNT FOR MUCH UNDERGROUND STORAGE, LOCAL LAND USE, FLORA, AND SO FORTH, WILL ALSO HAVE AN INFLUENCE. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON OR BEFORE NOVEMBER 6, 2008 DEPENDING ON THE SITUATION. IF NO LARGE SCALE CHANGES OCCUR IN THE DROUGHT SITUATION, IT WILL BE LATER THAN SOONER. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION AND KEEP YOU ABREAST. RELATED WEB SITES...
FOR ONE-STOP SHOPPING ON THE DROUGHT IN THE REGION GO TO...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mrx/hydro/drought07/main.php
OR YOU CAN GO TO...
http://weather.gov/
THEN CLICK ON THE EAST TENNESSEE REGION, AND THEN CLICK ON THE DROUGHT INFORMATION LINK AT THE BOTTOM OF THE MORRISTOWN, TENNESSEE HOME PAGE. YOU MAY ALSO VISIT...
http://www.tva.gov/ FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LAKES LEVELS, STREAMFLOWS, AND RAINFALL IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY SYSTEM. STREAMFLOW DATA CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED FROM THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY AT...
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt/
AND THEN CLICKING ON YOUR STATE OF INTEREST. ADDITIONAL LONG TERM STREAMFLOW FORECASTS CAN BE OBTAINED AT THE NWS MORRISTOWN "ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES" WEBSITE AT...
http://ahps.srh.noaa.gov/index.php?wfo=mrx
THE TENNESSEE DIVISION OF FORESTRY HAS FIRE INFORMATION AT...
http://burnsafetn.org/
THE VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY HAS FIRE INFORMATION AT...
http://www.dof.virginia.gov/
THE NORTH CAROLINA DIVISION OF FOREST RESOURCES IS LOCATED AT...
http://www.dfr.state.nc.us/
FOR SPECIFIC DATA, DROUGHT INDICES, AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT PICTURE WITH CLICKABLE ZOOMING, GO TO...
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/ ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... APPRECIATION FOR THE DATA IN THIS DOCUMENT GOES TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY (TVA), UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS), THE STATES OF TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA, THE COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA, THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE), THE TENNESSEE DIVISION OF FORESTRY, THE VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY, THE NORTH CAROLINA DIVISION OF FOREST RESOURCES, THE NATIONAL PARK SERVICE (NPS), THE NATIONAL FOREST SERVICE (NFS), THE UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA AT LINCOLN FOR HOSTING THE DROUGHT MONITOR WEBSITE, AND NUMEROUS COUNTY, CITY, AND UTILITY OFFICIALS. ALSO, THANKS TO VARIOUS MEDIA OUTLETS INCLUDING TELEVISION AND RADIO STATIONS AND NEWSPAPERS, FOR ASKING THE QUESTIONS THE DRIVE THE GATHERING OF DATA AND INFORMATION ON DROUGHT IMPACTS. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... FOR MORE INFORMATION OR FOR MEDIA INTERVIEWS PLEASE CONTACT: BRIAN BOYD SENIOR SERVICE HYDROLOGIST/METEOROLOGIST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 5974 COMMERCE BLVD. MORRISTOWN, TN 37814 423-586-1964 (MEDIA ONLY; FOR IMMEDIATE RESPONSE) 423-586-2296 (ALL OTHER CALLS; MAY GET VOICE MAIL) 423-586-6429 (FOR IMMEDIATE RESPONSE, NON-MEDIA CALLS, IF 2296 IS NOT AVAILABLE) EMAIL: Brian.Boyd@noaa.gov WEBSITE: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mrx/ NOTE: IN THE EVENT THE ABOVE PERSON IS NOT AVAILABLE, OTHER STAFF MEMBERS WILL BE ABLE TO HELP YOU.