DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 210 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2008 ...DROUGHT EXPANDING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE... SYNOPSIS... THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH 93 PERCENT OF THE STATE EXPERIENCING AT LEAST ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS...79 PERCENT EXPERIENCING AT LEAST MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS...59 PERCENT EXPERIENCING AT LEAST SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS...AND ABOUT 14 PERCENT OF THE STATE EXPERIENCING EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE SEVERE DROUGHT REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... BUT HAS RECENTLY EXPANDED INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE...INCLUDING THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA. LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA SAW SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE EARLY PART OF SEPTEMBER...BUT THE DRYNESS DURING THE REST OF THE MONTH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME DEGRADATION. THE AREAS EXPERIENCING EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE COUNTIES IN EASTERN TENNESSEE FROM THE KNOXVILLE AREA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. DESPITE THE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THIS PAST WINTER AND SPRING...THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THIS SUMMER AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS FALL HAS CAUSED DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS. THERE ARE SOME REPORTS OF A FEW WATER SYSTEMS EXPERIENCING DROUGHT RELATED IMPACTS...AND HAVE MANDATORY AND VOLUNTARY WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE. SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPERIENCING SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS IN THE UPPER PORTIONS DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS THIS SUMMER AND INTO THIS FALL. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF NASHVILLE ARE SEEING NEAR NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL FROM PASSING TROPICAL SYSTEMS. DEEPER SOIL MOISTURE IS STILL LACKING IN THE SEVERE DROUGHT AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS PAST WINTER...SPRING...AND SUMMER HAS BEEN ABOUT 70 TO 80 PERCENT OF NORMAL. RIVER AND STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS... MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS EXPERIENCING BELOW NORMAL RIVER AND STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...NEAR NORMAL RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS CAN BE FOUND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE DUCK RIVER. DROUGHT DEFINITIONS. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS MEAN GROWTH OF CROPS...PLANTS...OR PASTURES MAY BE SLOWED...AND THE FIRE RISK MAY BE ELEVATED. MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS MEAN CROPS...PLANTS...OR PASTURES MAY HAVE SOME DAMAGE...THE FIRE RISK CONTINUES TO BE ELEVATED...WATER LEVELS IN AREA RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS ARE BELOW NORMAL...AND WATER SHORTAGES AND RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP. A SEVERE DROUGHT MEANS AGRICULTURAL LOSSES MAY OCCUR...THE FIRE RISK IS VERY HIGH...AND WATER SHORTAGES ARE COMMON AND RESTRICTIONS MAY BE IMPOSED. A SIGN OF EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE SIGNIFICANT AGRICULTURAL LOSSES...EXTREME FIRE DANGER...AND WIDESPREAD WATER SHORTAGES AND RESTRICTIONS ARE COMMON. IN AN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT...WATER SHORTAGES AND RESTRICTIONS ARE WIDESPREAD AND THERE ARE MAJOR AGRICULTURAL LOSSES. THE DROUGHT CATEGORIES IN DEGRADING ORDER ARE ABNORMALLY DRY... MODERATE...SEVERE...EXTREME AND EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT. CLIMATE SUMMARY... BELOW ARE SOME PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN INCHES FOR THE LAST 3 MONTHS...JULY THROUGH SEPTEMBER...THE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...AND THE PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE LAST 3 MONTHS...6 MONTHS...9 MONTHS... AND 12 MONTHS: COUNTY % OF NORMAL LOCATION PRECIP DEP 3 MO 6 MO 9 MO 12 MO --------------------------------------------------------------------- CANNON WOODBURY 6.96 -6.24 53% 58% 65% 66% CHEATHAM KINGSTON SPRINGS 7.69 -3.64 68% 83% 93% 95% CUMBERLAND CROSSVILLE AIRPORT 9.11 -4.00 69% 81% 83% 82% DAVIDSON NASHVILLE INTL AIRPORT 6.87 -3.77 65% 92% 96% 103% OLD HICKORY DAM 9.91 -0.41 96% 101% 105% 107% DE KALB SMITHVILLE 7.31 -5.75 56% 68% 69% 69% FENTRESS ALLARDT 12.17 -1.34 90% 79% 84% 87% JAMESTOWN 11.63 -1.74 87% 79% 79% 80% GILES PULASKI 9.44 -2.61 78% 96% 93% 86% HICKMAN CENTERVILLE 11.59 +0.02 100% 104% 110% 112% MACON LAFAYETTE 8.65 -4.37 66% 74% N/A N/A MARSHALL LEWISBURG 9.43 -2.77 77% 84% 82% 79% MAURY COLUMBIA 7.78 -4.67 62% 83% 79% 83% PUTNAM COOKEVILLE 8.35 -5.11 62% 74% 77% 75% MONTEREY 7.65 -5.97 56% 67% 75% 77% RUTHERFORD MURFREESBORO 5.25 -7.82 40% 67% 73% 78% STEWART DOVER 5.66 -6.28 47% 81% 94% 105% SUMNER BETHPAGE 5.60 -6.86 45% 58% 76% 81% PORTLAND 13.20 +1.37 112% 106% 104% 105% WAYNE WAYNESBORO 8.04 -4.80 63% 79% 82% 88% WILLIAMSON FRANKLIN 7.31 -4.80 60% 89% 92% 92% WILSON LEBANON 6.51 -5.84 53% 76% 79% 82% PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...OR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. THE 3 MONTH OUTLOOK FOR OCTOBER...NOVEMBER...AND DECEMBER INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...OR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY OUTLOOK... THE FALL IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE DRY TIME OF YEAR IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND WHILE PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AMOUNTS MAY STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR SOME AREAS. THIS MAY CAUSE FURTHER DEGRADATION OF THE ONGOING DROUGHT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED BY FRIDAY OCTOBER 17 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS. RELATED WEB SITES...
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
STATE DROUGHT MONITOR
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/dm_state.htm?tn,s
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SOIL MOISTURE
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml
USGS RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS
http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/?m=dryw&r=tn
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE
http://www.weather.gov/nashville/ ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...AND STATE AND REGIONAL CLIMATOLOGISTS. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...AND USGS. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT PLEASE CONTACT... JAMES LAROSA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 500 WEATHER STATION ROAD OLD HICKORY, TN 37138 615-754-8500 EXT. 228 James.LaRosa@noaa.gov LAROSA