DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA HAVE EASED
SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS...

SYNOPSIS...RAINFALL DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS HAS FAVORED THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS INCLUDES THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT...THE SANDHILLS...AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS ACROSS THE NORTH HAS GENERALLY RANGED FROM 3
TO 5 INCHES. THE SOUTH HAS BEEN THE BENEFICIARY OF MORE NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE EVENTS...AND HAVE RECEIVED FROM 6 TO MORE THAN 10 INCHES
OF RAIN. THESE ARE GENERAL NUMBERS...HOWEVER...AND LOCATIONS ONLY A
FEW MILES APART COULD HAVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS DIFFERING BY SEVERAL
INCHES. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED ABOUT ONE HALF
DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH JULY AND EARLY AUGUST.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...MOST OF THE AREA HAS HAD NEAR NORMAL TO
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER...FROM SAMPSON COUNTY WESTWARD AS FAR AS THE
YADKIN RIVER BASIN. THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED FROM D2 (SEVERE
DROUGHT) TO D1 (MODERATE DROUGHT) AND D0 (ABNORMALLY DRY). RAIN
EVENTS HAVE LARGELY MISSED MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT...WHICH
INCLUDES THE TRIAD AND WESTERN TRIANGLE AREAS. THESE AREAS REMAIN
LARGELY CLASSIFIED AS D1 (MODERATE DROUGHT). MUCH OF THE YADKIN
RIVER BASIN...WHICH INCLUDES THE WINSTON SALEM AREA SOUTH TO
WADESBORO...REMAINS CLASSIFIED AS D2 (SEVERE DROUGHT).

VOLUNTARY WATER RESTRICTIONS ARE IN EFFECT OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AT THIS TIME.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...TEMPERATURES WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FROM LATE
SPRING THROUGH JUNE. JUNE...IN PARTICULAR...WAS EXCEEDINGLY WARM...WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES IN
JULY REMAINED SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BY AROUND ONE HALF DEGREE.

                          RAINFALL
                         PAST 30 DAYS
                        AMOUNT/%NORMAL

RALEIGH-DURHAM            3.73 / 91%
ITN`L APT (RDU)

PIEDMONT TRIAD            1.10 / 26%
INTN`L APT (GSO)

FAYETTEVILLE              8.52 / 167%
AIRPORT (FAY)

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...LA NINA CONDITIONS IN THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC HAVE BECOME NEARLY NEUTRAL. THERE ARE NO CLEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL SIGNALS WHICH MIGHT INDICATE TEMPERATURE OR
PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES. AS SUCH...THE OUTLOOK CALLS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR
THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.

THE LATEST TROPICAL OUTLOOK FROM NOAA HAS AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF
AN ACTIVE SEASON. THE OUTLOOK CALLS FOR AN INCREASED NUMBER OF NAMED
STORMS (BETWEEN 14 AND 18 ARE EXPECTED...AS COMPARED TO 12 TO 14
FROM THE MAY OUTLOOK). ADDITIONALLY...7 TO 10 HURRICANES (3 TO 6 OF
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAJOR HURRICANES) ARE EXPECTED...AS
COMPARED TO 6 TO 9 FROM THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS HAVE FALLEN
BELOW THEIR TARGET LEVELS...AND THE WATER SUPPLY IS AT 94 PERCENT IN
FALLS LAKE. (THE WATER SUPPLY FOR RALEIGH). INFLOWS INTO THESE
RESERVOIRS HAS BEEN WOEFULLY LOW AS WELL...WITH INFLOW INTO
LAKE JORDAN CURRENTLY ABOUT 15 PERCENT OF MEDIAN...AND NET INFLOWS AT
FALLS LAKE ARE ACTUALLY NEGATIVE.

UNREGULATED STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE FLOWING BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE
OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN PARTICULAR...THE FLOW IN THE
YADKIN RIVER IS BELOW THE 5TH PERCENTILE...WHILE UPPER HEADWATERS OF
THE CAPE FEAR...NEUSE...AND TAR RIVERS ARE ALL IN SINGLE DIGIT
PERCENTILES AS WELL. IN ADDITION...THE FLOW ON THESE STREAMS AND
RIVERS FALLS VERY QUICKLY TO LOW LEVELS AFTER RAINFALL EVENTS END.
THIS IS STRONGLY INDICATIVE OF A DEEPER SOIL MOISTURE DEFICIT.

THERE ARE FEW GROUNDWATER MONITORING WELLS IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...BUT THREE REPRESENTATIVE WELLS IN CHAPEL HILL...PITT
COUNTY NEAR GREENVILLE...AND IN CLEVELAND COUNTY NEAR SALISBURY HAVE
WATER LEVELS BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE. ANOTHER WELL IN SCOTLAND
COUNTY WEST OF RAEFORD IS IN THE NORMAL RANGE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND SEPTEMBER 5TH.

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.

NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM (NIDIS)...

http://www.drought.gov/

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...

http://www.drought.noaa.gov/

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

NORTH CAROLINA DROUGHT MANAGEMENT ADVISORY COUNCIL...

http://www.ncdrought.org/

STATE CLIMATE OFFICE OF NORTH CAROLINA...

http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...

http://www.weather.gov/ahps/

SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/alr/

U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...

http://water.usgs.gov/

U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS...

http://www.saw.usace.army.mil/

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE
AND REGIONAL CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION
CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS
AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1005 CAPABILITY DRIVE - SUITE 300
RALEIGH NC 27606
PHONE: 919-515-8209
E-MAIL: RAH.webmaster@noaa.gov 

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