HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
900 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2008
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN UTAH...
WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED THE RATE OF SNOWMELT...AND THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THEN A
SERIES OF PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE WORK WEEK...WITH A PARTICULARLY VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
IN WESTERN COLORADO...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING 2008 FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT CONTINUES TO
BE HIGH FOR PORTIONS OF THE YAMPA...WHITE...GUNNISON...AND UPPER
COLORADO RIVER MAINSTEM BASINS.
BANKFULL STAGE HAS ALREADY BEEN REACHED OR EXCEEDED AGAIN AT A
NUMBER OF FORECAST POINTS...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE YAMPA
AND ELK RIVERS NEAR FLOOD STAGE. PEAK FLOWS AND STAGES FOR THIS
CURRENT WARM PERIOD WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...THEN TAPER OFF DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
THE SNOWMELT RATE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DUE TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
IN EASTERN UTAH...
MOST SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS HAVE DROPPED WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE
RIVER BASINS ACROSS EASTERN UTAH. THEREFORE...SPRING FLOODING DUE TO
SNOWMELT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
EXPERIENCE INCREASED RIVER LEVELS WITH ADDED WATER FROM COLORADO.
THE GREEN RIVER NEAR JENSEN IS ONE LOCATION WHERE THE RISING RIVER
STAGE HAS AGAIN EXCEEDED BANKFULL STAGE AND SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
BANKFULL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION (% OF AVERAGE) AS OF MAY 1:
SUB-BASIN APR OCT-APR MAY1 APR
PRECIP PRECIP SNOW STRMFLW
---------------------- ------ ------- ---- --------
UPPER COLORADO 90 120 120 95
GUNNISON 75 130 120 130
DOLORES/SAN MIGUEL 65 105 100 145
SAN JUAN 45 110 110 125
YAMPA/WHITE 80 115 110 100
RESERVOIR STORAGE (KAF) AS OF APRIL 30:
RESERVOIR USABLE EOM USABLE % OF
CAPACITY CONTENTS CAPACITY
---------------------- --------- ---------- ----------
LAKE GRANBY 490.3 217.6 44
WILLIAMS FORK 96.9 81.1 84
DILLON 254.0 222.2 87
GREEN MOUNTAIN 146.9 65.4 44
TAYLOR PARK 106.2 63.1 59
BLUE MESA 829.5 410.8 50
RIDGWAY 83.2 52.8 64
MCPHEE 381.1 42.4 9 0
VALLECITO 125.4 42.8 34
NAVAJO 1701.3 1360.2 80
LAKE POWELL 24322.0 11194.8 46
STREAMFLOW FORECASTS (PERIOD MAY-JUL 2008):
DEVELOPED: MAY 6 2008
ALL FORECAST VOLUMES REFLECT NATURAL FLOW. ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT. ABBREVIATION KEY AT THE
BOTTOM.
UPPER COLORADO, ABOVE GUNNISON CONFLUENCE...
MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
---- --- ---- ---- ---
LAKE GRANBY, GRANBY, NR 220 98 260 183 225
WILLOW CK
WILLOW CK RES, GRANBY, NR 62 122 76 50 51
WILLOW CK RES, GRANBY, NR 58 123 72 46 47
FRASER RIVER
WINTER PARK 21 105 26 17.0 20
WINTER PARK 20 104 25 16.0 19.3
WILLIAMS FORK RIVER
WILLIAMS FORK RES, PARSHALL, N 109 115 127 92 95
WILLIAMS FORK RES, PARSHALL, N 102 115 120 85 89
BLUE RIVER
DILLON RES 195 117 230 166 167
DILLON RES 186 118 220 157 158
GREEN MTN RES 335 120 395 285 280
GREEN MTN RES 315 119 375 265 265
MUDDY CK
WOLFORD MTN RES, BLO 68 113 84 52 60
WOLFORD MTN RES, BLO 63 121 79 47 52
COLORADO RIVER
KREMMLING, NR 980 113 1170 780 870
KREMMLING, NR 910 113 1100 710 805
EAGLE RIVER
GYPSUM, BLO 425 127 515 330 335
GYPSUM, BLO 400 127 490 305 315
COLORADO RIVER
DOTSERO, NR 1670 116 2010 1370 1440
DOTSERO, NR 1560 117 1900 1260 1330
FRYING PAN RIVER
RUEDI RES, BASALT, NR 195 138 245 156 141
RUEDI RES, BASALT, NR 187 140 235 148 134
ROARING FORK RIVER
GLENWOOD SPRINGS 1000 141 1180 850 710
GLENWOOD SPRINGS 945 142 1120 795 665
COLORADO RIVER
GLENWOOD SPRINGS, BLO 2660 123 3120 2210 2160
GLENWOOD SPRINGS, BLO 2500 125 2960 2050 2000
CAMEO, NR 3020 125 3500 2500 2420
CAMEO, NR 2830 127 3310 2310 2220
PLATEAU CK
CAMEO, NR 150 130 215 82 115
CAMEO, NR 133 137 200 65 97
GUNNISON BASIN...
MP MP% RMAX RMIN
AVG ---- --- ---- ----
--- TAYLOR RIVER
TAYLOR PARK RES 140 136 167 116 103
TAYLOR PARK RES 133 140 160 109 95
ALMONT 230 139 270 190 165
ALMONT 220 146 265 176 151
EAST RIVER
ALMONT 300 156 340 260 192
ALMONT 285 160 325 260 178
GUNNISON RIVER
GUNNISON, NR 585 150 695 485 390
GUNNISON, NR 550 155 660 450 355
TOMICHI CK
GUNNISON 115 142 164 83 81
GUNNISON 95 140 144 63 68
LAKE FORK RIVER
GATEVIEW 170 135 195 147 126
GATEVIEW 159 134 184 136 119
GUNNISON RIVER
BLUE MESA RES 1060 147 1280 875 720
BLUE MESA RES 955 148 1170 770 645
MORROW POINT RES 1160 148 1300 1020 785
MORROW POINT RES 1050 150 1230 870 700
CRYSTAL RES 1310 143 1500 1120 915
CRYSTAL RES 1190 146 1410 960 815
MUDDY CK
PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR 140 140 182 108 100
PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR 110 147 151 77 75
PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR 145 142 190 109 102
PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR 118 144 163 82 82
GUNNISON RIVER
SOMERSET, NR 430 141 515 355 305
SOMERSET, NR 375 144 460 300 260
SURFACE CK
CEDAREDGE 23 135 29 18.4 17.1
CEDAREDGE 20 134 26 15.0 14.9
UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER
RIDGWAY RES 130 127 160 105 102
RIDGWAY RES 117 127 147 92 92
COLONA 175 126 225 134 139
COLONA 155 126 205 114 123
DELTA 150 128 210 89 117
DELTA 128 129 184 72 99
GUNNISON RIVER
GRAND JUNCTION, NR 2270 146 2610 1930 1560
GRAND JUNCTION, NR 1970 147 2310 1630 1340
DOLORES BASIN
MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
---- --- ---- ---- ---
DOLORES RIVER
DOLORES 325 123 410 255 265
DOLORES 260 118 345 192 220
MCPHEE RES 400 125 495 320 320
MCPHEE RES 295 113 390 215 260
SAN MIGUEL RIVER
PLACERVILLE, NR 160 121 197 130 132
PLACERVILLE, NR 142 121 179 112 117
DOLORES RIVER
CISCO, NR 870 141 1060 680 615
CISCO, NR 680 145 840 520 470
UPPER COLORADO, CONFLUENCE
MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
---- --- ---- ---- ---
COLORADO RIVER
CISCO, NR 6200 133 7270 5130 4650
CISCO, NR 5510 135 6580 4440 4080
MILL CK
MOAB, NR, SHELEY TUN, AT 3.7 74 5.3 2.5 5.0
MOAB, NR, SHELEY TUN, AT 3.3 77 4.9 2.1 4.3
SAN JUAN BASIN
MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
---- --- ---- ---- ---
SAN JUAN RIVER
PAGOSA SPRINGS 290 129 335 245 225
PAGOSA SPRINGS 240 125 285 195 192
CARRACAS, NR 540 133 630 460 405
CARRACAS, NR 430 132 520 350 325
RIO BLANCO RIVER
PAGOSA SPRINGS, NR, BLANCO DAM 73 138 89 60 53
PAGOSA SPRINGS, NR, BLANCO DAM 63 140 79 50 45
NAVAJO RIVER
CHROMO, NR, OSO DIV DAM, BLO 90 130 109 74 69
CHROMO, NR, OSO DIV DAM, BLO 75 129 94 59 58
PIEDRA RIVER
ARBOLES, NR 305 133 360 255 230
ARBOLES, NR 210 122 265 163 172
LOS PINOS RIVER
VALLECITO RES, BAYFIELD, NR 240 117 280 205 205
VALLECITO RES, BAYFIELD, NR 205 111 245 170 184
SAN JUAN RIVER
NAVAJO RES, ARCHULETA, NR 1030 131 1240 845 785
NAVAJO RES, ARCHULETA, NR 785 128 1000 605 615
FLORIDA RIVER
LEMON RES, DURANGO, NR 64 110 77 53 58
LEMON RES, DURANGO, NR 56 106 69 45 53
ANIMAS RIVER
DURANGO 515 117 625 420 440
DURANGO 450 115 560 355 390
SAN JUAN RIVER
FARMINGTON 1600 132 1820 1380 1210
FARMINGTON 1270 129 1490 1050 985
LAPLATA RIVER
HESPERUS 26 104 32 22 25
HESPERUS 21 100 27 16.2 21
SAN JUAN RIVER
BLUFF, NR 1580 128 1910 1250 1230
BLUFF, NR 1270 130 1600 940 975
MANCOS RIVER
MANCOS, NR 40 121 54 26 33
MANCOS, NR 35 121 49 21 29
SOUTH CK
LLOYD'S RSVR NR MONTICELLO, AB 1.90 145 3.2 1.01 1.31
LAKE POWELL
MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
---- --- ---- ---- ---
COLORADO RIVER
LAKE POWELL, GLEN CYN DAM, AT 9200 116 11400 7000 7930
LAKE POWELL, GLEN CYN DAM, AT 8200 118 10400 6000 6940
MP MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN 1000 ACRE-FEET.
MP% MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN PERCENT OF THE 71-00 AVERAGE.
RMAX VOLUME THAT HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
RMIN VOLUME THAT HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
AVG AVERAGE VOLUME FOR THE 71-00 PERIOD.
ALL FORECAST VOLUMES REFLECT NATURAL FLOW. ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.
SUB-BASIN MAR OCT-MAR APR1 MAR
PRECIP PRECIP SNOW STRMFLW
---------------------- ------ ------- ---- --------
UPPER COLORADO 85 125 125 95
GUNNISON 70 140 130 90
DOLORES/SAN MIGUEL 35 115 130 125
SAN JUAN 35 120 125 135
YAMPA/WHITE 70 115 110 50
RESERVOIR STORAGE (KAF) AS OF APRIL 23:
RESERVOIR USABLE USABLE % OF
CAPACITY CONTENTS CAPACITY
---------------------- --------- ---------- ----------
LAKE GRANBY 490.3 266.1 49
WILLIAMS FORK 96.9 81.7 84
DILLON 254.0 225.6 89
GREEN MOUNTAIN 146.9 62.3 41
TAYLOR PARK 106.2 65.7 62
BLUE MESA 829.5 410.9 50
RIDGWAY 83.2 55.0 66
MCPHEE 381.1 327.7 86
VALLECITO 125.4 36.0 29
NAVAJO 1701.3 1343.6 79
LAKE POWELL 24322.0 11013.5 45
STREAMFLOW FORECASTS (PERIOD APR-JUL 2008):
ALL FORECAST VOLUMES REFLECT NATURAL FLOW. ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT. ABBREVIATION KEY AT THE
BOTTOM.
UPPER COLORADO BASIN, ABOVE GUNNISON CONFLUENCE...
MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
---- --- ---- ---- ---
COLORADO RIVER
LAKE GRANBY, GRANBY, NR 230 102 285 183 225
WILLOW CK
WILLOW CK RES, GRANBY, NR 60 118 78 45 51
FRASER RIVER
WINTER PARK 22 110 27 16.0 20
WILLIAMS FORK RIVER
WILLIAMS FORK RES, PARSHALL, N 109 115 133 88 95
BLUE RIVER
DILLON RES 200 120 245 161 167
GREEN MTN RES 335 120 415 270 280
MUDDY CK
WOLFORD MTN RES, BLO 68 113 88 51 60
COLORADO RIVER
KREMMLING, NR 990 114 1260 725 870
EAGLE RIVER
GYPSUM, BLO 425 127 535 330 335
COLORADO RIVER
DOTSERO, NR 1700 118 2080 1360 1440
FRYING PAN RIVER
RUEDI RES, BASALT, NR 200 142 250 159 141
ROARING FORK RIVER
GLENWOOD SPRINGS 1050 148 1270 860 710
COLORADO RIVER
GLENWOOD SPRINGS, BLO 2730 126 3320 2140 2160
CAMEO, NR 3120 129 3760 2480 2420
PLATEAU CK
CAMEO, NR 150 130 230 70 115
GUNNISON BASIN...
MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
---- --- ---- ---- ---
TAYLOR RIVER
TAYLOR PARK RES 140 136 172 111 103
ALMONT 230 139 275 187 165
EAST RIVER
ALMONT 300 156 350 250 192
GUNNISON RIVER
GUNNISON, NR 600 154 725 485 390
TOMICHI CK
GUNNISON 125 154 184 80 81
LAKE FORK RIVER
GATEVIEW 180 143 215 147 126
GUNNISON RIVER
BLUE MESA RES 1060 147 1370 860 720
MORROW POINT RES 1160 148 1350 975 785
CRYSTAL RES 1350 148 1600 1100 915
MUDDY CK
PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR 160 157 215 115 102
NF GUNNISON RIVER
SOMERSET, NR 450 148 555 360 305
SURFACE CK
CEDAREDGE 25 146 32 18.9 17.1
UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER
RIDGWAY RES 140 137 180 107 102
COLONA 190 137 260 133 139
DELTA 165 141 235 97 117
GUNNISON RIVER
GRAND JUNCTION, NR 2350 151 2800 1900 1560
DOLORES BASIN...
MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
---- --- ---- ---- ---
DOLORES RIVER
DOLORES 370 140 480 280 265
MCPHEE RES 450 141 550 330 320
SAN MIGUEL RIVER
PLACERVILLE, NR 180 136 235 136 132
DOLORES RIVER
CISCO, NR 940 153 1160 725 615
UPPER COLORADO BASIN, BELOW GUNNISON CONFLUENCE...
MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
---- --- ---- ---- ---
COLORADO RIVER
CISCO, NR 6500 140 7990 5010 4650
MILL CK
MOAB, NR, SHELEY TUN, AT 4.8 96 7.0 3.1 5.0
COLORADO RIVER
LAKE POWELL, GLEN CYN DAM, AT 9700 122 12400 7010 7930
YAMPA/WHITE BASINS...
MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
---- --- ---- ---- ---
YAMPA RIVER
STAGECOACH RSVR, ABV 33 114 50 20 29
STEAMBOAT SPRINGS 295 105 375 225 280
ELK RIVER
MILNER, NR 405 125 500 320 325
ELKHEAD CK
ELKHEAD, NR 50 128 69 34 39
MAYNARD GULCH, BLO 84 142 112 60 59
7.5 YAMPA RIVER
MAYBELL, NR 1150 116 1490 820 990
LITTLE SNAKE RIVER
SLATER, NR 200 126 250 154 159
DIXON, NR 430 130 590 295 330
LILY, NR 470 129 650 320 365
WHITE RIVER
MEEKER, NR 300 103 385 225 290
WATSON, NR 325 107 450 200 305
SAN JUAN BASIN...
MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
---- --- ---- ---- ---
SAN JUAN RIVER
PAGOSA SPRINGS 320 142 380 260 225
CARRACAS, NR 620 153 780 485 405
RIO BLANCO RIVER
PAGOSA SPRINGS, NR, BLANCO DAM 83 157 107 66 53
NAVAJO RIVER
CHROMO, NR, OSO DIV DAM, BLO 101 146 129 77 69
PIEDRA RIVER
ARBOLES, NR 345 150 455 275 230
LOS PINOS RIVER
VALLECITO RES, BAYFIELD, NR 255 124 320 200 205
SAN JUAN RIVER
NAVAJO RES, ARCHULETA, NR 1220 155 1590 910 785
FLORIDA RIVER
LEMON RES, DURANGO, NR 70 121 89 54 58
ANIMAS RIVER
DURANGO 610 139 755 485 440
SAN JUAN RIVER
FARMINGTON 1840 152 2260 1420 1210
LA PLATA RIVER
HESPERUS 30 120 39 22 25
SAN JUAN RIVER
BLUFF, NR 1910 155 2410 1410 1230
MANCOS RIVER
MANCOS, NR 48 145 66 30 33
GREEN RIVER BASIN...
MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
---- --- ---- ---- ---
BIG BRUSH CK
VERNAL, NR, RED FLEET RES, ABV 23 110 32 15.3 21
ASHLEY CK
VERNAL, NR 55 106 80 35 52
DUCHESNE RIVER
MYTON 280 106 435 158 265
WHITEROCKS RIVER
WHITEROCKS, NR 58 104 82 38 56
DUCHESNE RIVER
RANDLETT, NR 350 108 555 193 325
GREEN RIVER
GREEN RIVER, UT 3200 101 4310 2090 3170
MP MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN 1000 ACRE-FEET.
MP% MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN PERCENT OF THE 71-00 AVERAGE.
RMAX VOLUME THAT HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
RMIN VOLUME THAT HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
AVG AVERAGE VOLUME FOR THE 71-00 PERIOD.
ALL FORECAST VOLUMES REFLECT NATURAL FLOW. ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EXACERBATE PEAK RUNOFF.
IT APPEARS THAT THE RECENT TRENDS OF ALTERNATING COOLER WETTER
WEATHER AND WARMER DRIER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...AS THE LATEST
CLIMATIC OUTLOOK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF JUNE INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES
OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK FOR THE REMAINDER OF JUNE CALLS FOR ODDS
FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES OF NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. THE EXCEPTION IS FOR SOME AREAS OF NORTHEAST UTAH AND
NORTHWEST COLORADO WHERE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
PERSONS PARTICIPATING IN ACTIVITIES NEAR RIVERS...CREEKS...AND
STREAMS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION. KEEP CHILDREN AWAY FROM FAST
FLOWING WATER.
JRP