INTERNATIONAL SESSION ON NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION
AGENDA JANUARY 11, 2007
08:30 Numerical Weather Prediction at NCEP (DiMego)
Where We Are and Where We're Going
[presentation]*
Capabilities and Limitations
09:30 Forecasting the Weather (Davison)
How to Apply Numerical Model Guidance
Forecast Funnel, Streamlining Thought Process
Weather Matrix/Forecast Worksheet Applications
10:30 Coffee Break
10:45 Applied Climatology (in the Americas) (Davison)
Understanding and Identifying Climatological Pattern Variations
Operational Applications to Weather Forecasting
Skill Test, Recognizing Weather Patterns
12:15 Lunch
13:15 Ensemble Models (Davison)
Forecasting Tools for Establishing Uncertainty
Improving the Forecast
QPF Techniques
14:15 Coffee Break
14:30 WINGRIDDS (Davison)
Evolution of the PCGRIDDS/PCGRIDDS32 Software
15:15 Cross Equatorial Systems (Davison)
Southern Hemisphere Upper Level Incursions
16:00 Induced Troughs and Tropical Waves (Davison)
International application of DWS capability – Eric Altshuler (COLA)
[presentation]*
Use of DWS in Senegal – Aida Diongue-Niang [presentation]*
On January 11, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s)
National Weather Service (NWS) of the United States organized a special International
Session on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) in San Antonio, Texas that ran parallel
to the 87th annual American Meteorological Society meeting. The session was planned
by the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) Capacity Building Committee’s (CBC) US
Lead, John Jones, Deputy Director, NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS), who
serves as the principle on the implementation of GEO Weather Task 06-05 (WE-06-05).
As part of the execution of WE 06-05 the workshop on NWP was held as part of the 2007
AMS International Session.
The GEO WE 06-05 task objective is to co-organize a series of regional capacity building
workshops with major numerical weather-prediction training centers to assist developing
countries in their utilization of currently available forecasts; building in particular upon
the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) programs for developing countries.
Information regarding workshops centered on numerical weather prediction (NWP) that
have either taken place in the recent past, are currently scheduled or are planned for the
near-term was gathered from international organizations such as the WMO, National
Hydrometeorological Services (NMHSs) in targeted countries and international centers
that focus on specialized meteorological services. The information was used to identify
possible gaps in NWP training on a global scale and help accomplish capacity building in
developing countries. The outcomes revealed WMO Regions I and IV suffer from a
dearth of capacity-building activities in the area of NWP. The Regions with the most
activities are WMO Regions III and VI. Regions II and V receive moderate attention,
however near-term activities identified RAII as being the focus of WMO activities,
especially in preparation for the 2008 Beijing Games.
In order to begin to address these gaps NOAA’s NWS presented a one-day workshop on
numerical weather prediction to a select group of Permanent Representatives from
NMHSs around the globe, however, this year there was a large showing from both RAI
and RAIV. The emphasis of the workshop was to provide an overview of the operational
use of NWP products and models, and provide examples of a regional approach to NWP.
The intergovernmental GEO is leading a worldwide effort to build a Global Earth
Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) over the next 10 years. GEO comprises 64
member countries, the European Commission, and 43 participating international
organizations. The Capacity Building Committee supports GEO in strengthening the
capability of all countries, in particular developing countries, to use Earth observation
data and products in a sustainable manner and to contribute observations and systems to
GEOSS.
This international forum was an opportunity to highlight the importance of numerical
weather prediction to forecasting and daily operations. The workshop stressed the
importance of adopting a regional approach to numerical weather prediction as a more
sustainable means of strengthening the modeling and forecasting capacity of NMHSs
around the globe.
The welcoming remarks were given by BGEN John J. Kelly, Jr. USAF (ret.), Deputy
Under Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere, U.S. Department of Commerce, who
discussed the importance of a regional approach and encouraged the audience to consider
partnering within their regions as a model to adopt when thinking managerially and
monetarily about modeling capabilities, and when providing guidance and
recommendations to the WMO on modernization of NMHSs.
The welcoming remarks were delivered by John Jones. In his remarks, Mr. Jones
reinforced General Kelly’s statement on regionalization of modeling capabilities, as well
as stressed the importance of capacity building in improving not only the operational
capacities of NMHSs, but also their ability to contribute to the mission of saving lives
and livelihood.
The session was started with an overview of numerical weather prediction by Dr. Geoff
DiMego, NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for
Environmental Prediction (NCEP), titled Numerical Modeling: Where We Are and
Where We Are Going. He provided an overview of numerical weather prediction, the
current state of the science, the advances in the field, and the future direction of
modeling. Dr. DiMego also discussed the tools needed for implementation of NWP in an
operational structure and the benefits of cooperating within regions in order to realize an
economical solution to global modeling capabilities.
Dr. DiMego’s presentation was followed by a tutorial on NWP uses in operational
forecasting by Michel Davison, NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) National
Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Mr. Davison presented on the
following topic areas: Applied Climatology; Ensemble Models; WINGRIDDS, Cross
Equatorial Systems; and Induced Troughs and Tropical Waves. The workshop
highlighted the use of applicable NWP tools in operational forecasting. The workshop
material had an emphasis on WMO Region IV, which includes North and Central
America, and the Caribbean. Although the examples as well as geographical and
environmental data were specific to that region, the information and tools behind the
science can be applied to any region of the global.
The emphasis on regional applications was the theme of the workshop and to illustrate
the theme in an international operational setting, the workshop concluded with
presentations by Eric Altshuler from the Center for Ocean Land and Atmosphere on the
benefits and uses of a desktop workstation approach. Mr. Altshuler’s presentation was
followed by Aida Diongue-Niang’s demonstration of Senegal’s use of desktop
workstation using the PC Eta model.
The meeting resulted in improved capacity and understanding of NWP in developing
countries and methods of implementation into operations of NMHSs.
INTERNATIONAL SESSION ON GLOBAL CHALLENGES FACING NATIONAL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
AGENDA JANUARY 12, 2007
FRIDAY MORNING
07:30Continental Breakfast
08:30 Overview of Agenda, Speakers and Participation
Dr. William Hooke, Facilitator for the International Session
Director,
Atmospheric Policy Program and Senior Policy Fellow
American Meteorology Society (AMS)
08:45Welcoming Remarks
BGEN John J. Kelly, Jr. USAF (Ret.), Deputy Under Secretary for
Oceans and Atmosphere, U.S. Department of Commerce
09:00 Emerging Issues to Global Challenges
A Review of the Past Four Years
Dr. John W. Zillman
Past President of the Australian Academy of Technological
Sciences and Engineering (ATSE) [presentation]*
09:30WMO Response to the Global Challenges and Opportunities
Mr. Michel Jarraud, Secretary General
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) [presentation]*
10:00 Questions and Discussion
10:30Photo Opportunity
10:45 Coffee Break
11:00Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Current and future challenges
Mr. Dominique Marbouty, Director
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) [presentation]*
11:30Questions and Discussion
12:00Hosted Lunch
FRIDAY AFTERNOON
13:00 Long-Term Climate Change, Climate Variability, and Extreme Weather
Events:
Future Roles and Responsibilities of NMHSs in the Provision of a Continuum of
Climate Information and Services for Decisional Support.
Dean Solofa
Secretariat of the Pacific Environment Programme (SPREP) [presentation]*
Jim Weyman
Director, Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Honolulu and
Chairperson, WMO RAV Working Group on Climate [presentation]*
13:30Questions and Discussion
14:00Coping with Forecast Uncertainty for Water Management and
Public Warning:
A Global Perspective
Dr. Konstantine P. Georgakakos, Managing Director
Hydrologic Research Center (HRC) [presentation]*
14:30Questions and discussion
15:00 Coffee Break
15:30Multidisciplinary Approach to Earth Science
Utilizing Global Earth Observing Systems to improve Water Resource
and Ecosystem Forecasting Capabilities
Dr. Charles Vorosmarty
University of New Hampshire [presentation]*
16:00Questions and Discussion
16:30 Group Discussion and Summary of International Session and
Closing Remarks
Dr. William Hooke, Facilitator
On January 12, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) National Weather Service
(NWS) of the United States organized a special International Session in San Antonio, Texas that ran parallel to
the 87th annual American Meteorological Society meeting. This session, one in a series of International
Sessions over the past several years, brings together representatives of National Meteorological and Hydrologic
Services (NMHSs), the private sector, academia, and international finance and aid organizations. This forum
provides a venue in which to explore and informally debate complex, global issues of particular relevance to the
NMHSs. This year, over 60 participants from 34 countries took part in the presentations and discussions on the
session topic, global challenges facing NMHSs.
This year’s International Session re-examined those issues highlighted at the 2003 AMS International Session
by then-World Meteorological Organization (WMO) President, John Zillman. At the 2003 AMS International
Session, a series of topics were presented as emerging issues for NMHSs. The premise behind the meeting was
for NMHSs to begin to consider what issues the upcoming 14th Session of WMO Congress should focus
attention. Now four years later and as NMHSs prepare for the 15th Session of the WMO Congress we felt it
relevant to re-visit the list of emerging issues and which have developed into global challenges facing NMHSs.
The session discussed the challenges these issues present National Hydrometeorological Services and the
importance of ensuring the World Meteorological Organization is cognizant of the challenges and actively
engaged in addressing them.
The opening remarks were given by BGEN John J. Kelly, Jr. USAF (ret.), Deputy Under Secretary for
Oceans and Atmosphere, U.S. Department of Commerce, who reminded the audience about the importance
of focusing on how National Hydrometeorological Services have lost sight of our roots and our unique
contributions. He emphasized that National Hydrometeorological Services tend to focus too much on
reputation, visibility and prestige. Within the international arena, most notably the World Meteorological
Organization, we spend too much time focused on matters that have little impact to the publics we serve. To
truly have an impact, he believes we need to return the discourse within the meteorological community back to
the fundamentals, such as
Applied Science
Improved technology
Stronger data links
Assimilation of different data types
Capacity building
Observing system strengthening, expansion, integration
General Kelly also encouraged the audience to consider if we are asking the right questions? His remarks
stressed that we as whole should be focused on questions that impact our ability to serve the public, such as:
What new science and technology hold the greatest promise to help National Hydrometeorological
Services do their job?
How we doing improving our data exchange mechanisms?
Have we seen improvement in incorporating data and observations from multiple source/multiple
disciplines?
Are we seeing new leaders and experts being trained and groomed?
Are we looking to make our capabilities relevant to decision makers?
Do we engage to ensure there is a climate and weather literate public who can use our information and
services?
General Kelly closed by stating in a few months from the meeting we all would be sitting behind our countries
flags and we should take advantage of the opportunity we had at the AMS International Sessions to learn about
what the international community was doing to respond to the global challenges that were presented at the
meeting so we can charge the WMO to arm NMHSs with the right tools to meet those challenges.
Session Topics and Presentations
Six speakers were invited to lead talks on the discussion areas described below, and after each presentation, all
the session’s participants had the opportunity to ask questions, provide comments, and engage in discussion
with the group. Dr. William Hooke, Director of the Atmospheric Policy Program and Senior Policy Fellow at
the American Meteorology Society, was the session moderator and led a group discussion and summary after
all the presentations were completed. Following are the topics and a few highlights from each talk:
Emerging Issues to Global Challenges: A Review of the Past Four Years
Dr. John W. Zillman, Past President of the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering
This presentation served as re-cap of the comprehensive WMO (World Meteorological Organization) survey on
the role and operation of National Meteorological Services (NMSs) in 2001 which identified an extensive list of
issues facing the NMHSs of both the developed and developing countries and shaped both the thrust of the
February 2003 AMS International Session at Long Beach and the agenda for, and priorities of, the Fourteenth
World Meteorological Congress in Geneva in May 2003.
This presentation took stock, from an outsider perspective, of the evolution of the issues canvassed at Long
Beach over the following four years. In particular, it offered comment on the changed, and changing, scene in
respect of:
the 'top ten' issues identified in the 2001 survey;
the issues canvassed in detail at Long Beach;
some other then-emerging issues identified at Long Beach;
the major issues of the Fourteenth Congress;
and summarized the author's more recent 2005 synthesis of the major challenges for meteorology in the 21st
century.
Finally, it updated the earlier assessment and identified, at least in broad outline, what now seem to be emerging
as the global challenges for NMHSs for the next few years.
WMO Response to the Global Challenges and Opportunities
Michel Jarraud, Secretary-General, World Meteorological Organization
This presentation referred briefly to the evolving role of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and to
a number of new challenges to be met in the context of specific changes occurring in international meteorology
and hydrology within the frameset beginning in February 2003, when the U.S. National Weather Service held
another of its successful International Sessions in Long Beach, California, to address emerging issues and new
technologies having the potential to impact on the National Meteorological and Hydrologic Services (NMHSs).
Some of the particular milestones involved in this evolution have included XIVth World Meteorological
Congress (Geneva, May 2003) and the adoption by WMO Members of new crosscutting programs, in particular
the WMO Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Program, as well as the birth of GEO and GEOSS, the
Indian Ocean tsunami of December 2004 and several other important events and changes that took place in the
international arena after the Long Beach International Session.
The presentation provided highlights of a WMO metamorphosis during the period, as well as of several major
issues to be discussed at the upcoming XVth Congress (Geneva, May 2007) by all WMO Members, particularly
in terms of a new WMO Strategic Plan, a resource-based budget and increasingly integrated scientific and
technical Programs. In concluding, the presentation showed that the challenges to be met and the promising
opportunities offered to scientific research by globalization, computers and satellites, will increasingly demand
strengthened and renewed partnerships, at all levels of international cooperation in meteorology and hydrology.
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), Current and Future Challenges Dominique Marbouty, Director, European Center for Medium and Long-Range Weather Forecasting
This presentation was linked to the previous day’s international Group on Earth Observation’s Capacity-
Building Workshop on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). Dr. Marbouty mainly dealt with current and
future challenges of global NWP. The presentation highlighted the importance of numerical modeling in
routine operations, research and decision-making activities of NMHSs. It did not address very high resolution
and very short-range/nowcast):
Dr. Marbouty addressed severe weather (early warning, probabilistic forecasts, verification), challenges in the
use of satellite data (rain-affected areas, continents, new instruments' geometry, volume, real-time availability),
challenges in model development (multidisciplinary), challenges in computing (high parallelism, complexity,
power), and continuity weather to climate.
Long-Term Climate Change, Climate Variability, and Extreme Weather Events:
Future Roles and Responsibilities of NMHSs in the Provision of a Continuum of Climate
Information and Services for Decisional Support
Dean Solofa, Secretariat of the Pacific Environment Programme (SPREP)
Jim Weyman, Director, Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Honolulu and Chairperson, WMO RAV
Working Group on Climate
This presentation focused on how national meteorological/hydrological services (NMHSs) of the Pacific play a
crucial role in the delivery of weather and climate information for various end users in their countries and
territories. While the range of climate services varies with the capacities of Pacific NMHSs, the importance of
and the resulting demand for climate information has evolved greatly over the past ten years.
In the Pacific, El Nino Southern Oscillation related climate variability has been one major driver of this raised
climate awareness for those in the primary sectors of agriculture, fisheries, water management, and risk
analysis/management. For over a decade, many Pacific Island jurisdictions have been actively engaged in the
applications of ENSO-based forecasts to support decision making in these key sectors and much attention has
been paid recently to enhancing the local capability to develop as well as apply seasonal-to-interannual climate
forecasts. With increased knowledge of climate change, global warming, and associated possible impacts, there
is now a demand for a continuum of climate information stretching from extreme weather events, climate
variability, to long-term climate change.
The demands for increased climate information has also identified the need for NMHSs to be involved in a
wider collective of local, national, and international agencies and organizations. Working together, this
collective is required to identify key roles not only in climate information collection, production, and
dissemination but for long term strategies to assist in climate change adaptation efforts.
This presentation discussed some of the current core challenges NMHSs face and suggestions and
recommendations to meet these challenges derived from the lessons learned in the application of ENSO-based
forecasts in the Pacific during the past decade. The presentation also included the role of regional organizations
such as Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP), Pacific Islands Applied
Geoscience Commission (SOPAC), and the proposed WMO Pacific Regional Climate Centre (RCC) to support
capacity building and sustainability for the provision of user required climate information by NMHSs in Pacific
Island countries and territories. In addition, an overview of evolving plans for an integrated Pacific Climate
Information System (PaCIS) designed to support decision making and provide an effective U.S. contribution to
the WMO RCC in the Pacific were discussed.
Coping with Forecast Uncertainty for Water Management and Public Warning: A Global
Perspective
Dr. Konstantine P. Georgakakos, Managing Director Hydrologic Research Center (HRC)
Continuing pressures from floods and droughts worldwide and from the expanding needs of the Earth's
population, necessitate the continuing improvement of the effectiveness of water management and of disaster
warning-response practices.
The availability of global meteorological information (observations and forecasts) and of digital databases of
various attributes of the land surface now allows the use of hydrologic and water resources models in an
operational environment for providing numerical guidance for regional and local forecast/warning and
management applications. The internet and the global communication networks facilitate the dissemination and
use of such numerical guidance throughout the globe.
Because of inaccuracies in meteorological and global land surface data, and the limited availability of
streamflow records for reliable hydrologic model calibration, uncertainty is part of the numerical guidance.
This is especially so for smaller scale operational applications and it must be taken into consideration in
forecast/warning and water resource management practices for realizing improvements in effectiveness.
How to cope with the uncertainty in numerical guidance during operations is a significant challenge for the
forecasters and water managers. Characterizing and conveying local forecast uncertainty to users, and assisting
in the appropriate incorporation of the uncertainty in participatory decision support systems are two important
challenges that the National Hydrological and Meteorological Services of the world are beginning to face.
The presentation exemplified these issues through the discussion of two regional operational systems
implemented by the Hydrologic Research Center in Northern California and Central America: the former for
increasing reservoir-water management effectiveness and the latter for providing flash flood guidance for
warnings. Lessons derived from these applications pertain to: the required cooperation and reciprocal training
of forecasters and managers, creating new operational paradigms in developing countries, developing effective
approaches for validation and continuing improvement of operations, developing and educating a viable user
community for warning information and products and the establishment of operational requirements for sources
of global forecasts and observations.
Background information may be found at the following sources:
National Research Council 2006: Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating
Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts. National Academies Press,
Washington, D.C., 178 pp.
Multidisciplinary Approach to Earth Science: Utilizing Global Earth Observing Systems to
improve Water Resource and Ecosystem Forecasting Capabilities
Dr. Charles Vorosmarty, University of New Hampshire
Dr. Vorosmarty’s presentation addressed some the contributions from Earth System Science which include, In
situ networks, Operational satellite-based monitoring of the hydrosphere and Simulation models and data
analysis tools (NWP-4DDA, GCMs, RCMs, ESMs).
Research indicates that in last 5 years that 16 % of people live in the wettest part of Earth and everyone else
lives in the driest half. Many pressing fresh water resource problems --transcend state & national boundaries.
New water science & assessment capabilities are emerging from Earth System sciences. All require in situ hydrographic network data--but widespread availability is in severe decline. The willingness of NHMSs to
provide consistent, high quality data for common good is essential for clear vision of emerging problems.
Dr. Vorosmarty’s recommended that the community Capitalize on existing agreements (i.e. Resolution #25,
WMO Cg-XIII, 1999) & consensus-based frameworks (e.g. GCOS, IGOS-IGWCO, GTN-R & GTN-H, WMOWHYCOS,
GEOSS)
Concluding Remarks
The session’s goals were ambitious: to provide a clearer understanding of some the challenges facing the
international community of National Hydrometeorological Services, an overview of the science providing
solutions to these challenges, and to give you all the opportunity to dialogue with other National Hydrometeorological Services and experts and discuss how such issues and solutions can be applied to the National,
Regional and Global context.
There were themes thread repeatedly throughout the day’s discussions regarding ways the international
community is addressing the issues. The themes included: collective international response to the challenges,
modeling approaches, climatologically decision making, communication, technological innovations, and
interdisciplinary science that all participants seemed to agree were primary areas for future inquiry. By
discussing these issues, the international session took a step toward a answering the question, “are we better off
today then we were four years ago?” As the session concluded, participants said the exchange of ideas
regarding the challenges and opportunities facing NMHSs had been worthwhile and will be useful as these
issues are addressed in other forums, including the upcoming 15th Session of the WMO Congress.
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