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'> H ;E">%#a) ,.146:5>AW'D<cF4II}KbM,P QMZQMQtSEWMW9YZ$^^VbeyjTm8pBGrRtty2~4FzeߋbA-Fs*JtD0ߦM,MyMƧMI\WPC ##2  I  .3  TheNationalWeatherServiceFloodandFlashFloodForecastandWarningProgram....2  1  .3  InternationalHydrologicForecastingCourseKansasCity,MONovember3,2003JeffZimmermanChief,SupportBranchOfficeofClimateWaterandWeatherServices/HydrologicServicesDivision# #2  I  .3  NWSMission..2  A  .3  TheNationalWeatherService(NWS)providesweather,hydrologic,andclimateforecastsandwarningsfortheUnitedStates,itsterritories,adjacentwatersandoceanareas,fortheprotectionoflifeandpropertyandtheenhancementofthenationaleconomy.NWSdataandproductsformanationalinformationdatabaseandinfrastructurewhichcanbeusedbyothergovernmentalagencies,theprivatesector,thepublic,andtheglobalcommunity.( "st(2  I  .3  WhatIsFlooding..2  A  .3  NWSPolicyhasthefollowingdefinitions:....2  1  .3  Flood-anyhighflow,overflow,orinnundationwhichcausesorthreatensdamage....2  1  .3  FlashFlood-afloodwhichoccurswithin6hoursorlessofthecausativeevent....2  1  .3  BankfullStage-anestablishedgageheightatagivenlocationalongariverorstream,abovewhichariseinwatersurfacewillcausetheriverorstreamtooverflowthelowestnaturalstreambanksomewherealongthereach.Notnecessarilythesameasfloodstage( #uv(2  I  .3  WhatIsFlooding..2  A  .3  NWSPolicyhasthefollowingdefinitions:....2  1  .3  FloodStage-anestablishedgageheightatagivenlocationabovewhichariseinwatersurfacelevelisdefinedasafloodforthecorrespondingriverorstreamreach.FloodstageisusuallysetatalevelwheretheriverorstreambeginstooverflowitsbanksANDcreateapotentialhazardtolife,propertyorcommerce.Floodstagemayequalorexceedbankfullstage,butshouldrarelybelessthanbankfullstage.'  '2  I  .3  ImpactofFlooding..2  A  .3  Overthepast30years(1973-2002),anaverageof110peopleperyearhavelosttheirlivesasaresultofflooding..2  A  .3  Exceptforheat-relatedfatalities,overthepast10years,morepeoplehavebeenkilledbyfloodingthananyotherweather-relatedphenomenon,"  ,2  I  .3  ImpactofFlooding..2  A  .3  Approximatelyhalfofallflashfloodfatalitiesarevehicle-related..2  A  .3  Fortheperiod1971-2000,morethanhalfofthefatalitiesassociatedwithland-fallingtropicalstormsareduetofreshwaterflooding..2  A  .3  Floodingdeathsaffectallagegroups((2  I  .3  NWSStructureandRolesinSupportofHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  DefinitionofRolesandResponsibilities..2  A  .3  NWSPolicyandInstructionalDirectivesdefinetherolesandresponsibilities(http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/):....2  1  .3  NWSPD10-9HydrologicServicesProgram....2  1  .3  NWSI10-911RFCOperations....2  1  .3  NWSI10-921WFOOperations..2  A  .3  TheHydrologicServicesProgramisimplementedbyNWSHeadquarters,NWSRegions,andNWSFieldOffices(  (2  I  .3  NWSStructureandRolesinSupportofHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  NWSHeadquarters..2  A  .3  OfficeofClimate,Water,andWeatherServices(OCWWS):....2  1  .3  EstablishnationalpoliciesandproceduresfortheprovisionofconsistentNWShydrologicforecastandwarningservices....2  1  .3  Conductmeteorological,climate,training,performanceandawareness,andobservingserviceprogramswhichsupporthydrologicoperationsandservices....2  1  .3  Consolidate,analyze,andoverseenationalperformanceandeffectivenessindicatorsofhydrologicservices....2  1  .3  Provideoutreachtonationalcustomerstopromotehydrologicservices-#   -2  I  .3  NWSStructureandRolesinSupportofHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  NWSHeadquarters..2  A  .3  OfficeofHydrologicDevelopment(OHD):....2  1  .3  Plan,develop,demonstrate,andintegratescientifictechniquesandsoftwarecapabilitiesfortheHydrologicServicesProgram....2  1  .3  FormulateandmaintainaresearchanddevelopmentplaninresponsetotherequirementsoftheHydrologicServicesProgram-#-2  I  .3  NWSStructureandRolesinSupportofHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  NWSRegionalHeadquarters..2  A  .3  EnsurethatWFOsandRFCsareorganized,trained,andequippedtofulfilltheHydrologicServicesProgramobligationswithintheirRegions..2  A  .3  Providehydrology-relatedrequirementstoOCWWS..2  A  .3  DevelopsupplementstoproceduraldirectivesfortheHydrologicServicesProgram..2  A  .3  ProvidetechnicalandoperationalsupporttoWFOsandRFCs..2  A  .3  Overseehydrologicserviceoutreachefforts-#-2  I  .3  NWSStructureandRolesinSupportofHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  NWSRegionalHeadquarters..2  A  .3  Evaluateperformanceandeffectivenessofhydrologicserviceswithintheirregion..2  A  .3  EnsureWFOsandRFCscomplywithHydrologicServiceProgramdirectivesandregionalsupplements-#-2  I  .3  NWSStructureandRolesinSupportofHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  NWSFieldOffices..2  A  .3  NationalCentersforEnvironmentalPrediction(NCEP):....2  1  .3  Providemeteorologicalforecastguidanceservingasinputtothehydrologicforecastingprocessforalltimescales....2  1  .3  PreparenationalproductswhichintegratehydrometeorologicalinformationproducedbyWFOsandRFCs-# -2  I  .3  NWSStructureandRolesinSupportofHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  NWSFieldOffices..2  A  .3  RiverForecastCenters(RFC):....2  1  .3  Conducthydrologicmodelingandforecastoperationsforrivers,reservoirs,andlakesinlarge,mult-stateareasofrepsonsibility....2  1  .3  ProducetheforecastandguidanceinformationusedinNWShydrologicproducts....2  1  .3  Provideproductsdescribingobserved,current,andfuturehydrometeorologicalconditionsovertheirareaofresponsibilitysuchasdiscussions,significantriverfloodoutlooks,quantitativeprecipitaitonestimates,andwatersupplyforecasts-# -2  I  .3  NWSStructureandRolesinSupportofHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  NWSFieldOffices..2  A  .3  WeatherForecastOffices(WFO):....2  1  .3  Providehydrologicforecasts,watches,warnings,statements,andrelatedproductsforlocalserviceareas.Theseproductscopvereventsrangingfromshort-fusedflashfloodstoregionaldroughtsandslow-risingfloodsonlargeriversandlakes( !((2  I  .3  NWSStructureandRolesinSupportofHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  CoordinationBetweenRFCsandWFOs..2  A  .3  RFCissuehydrologicforecastguidanceandflashfloodguidancetoWFOsforuseinpublicproductsandwarningprocess..2  A  .3  WFOsmaychangeRFCforecastguidancebasedoncurrentobservationsorotherinformation..2  A  .3  ChangestoforecastguidancearecoordinatedwiththeRFC-#$wxy-2  I  .3  NWSStructureandRolesinSupportofHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  CoordinationBetweenRFCsandWFOs..2  A  .3  RFCstaffincludesaHydrometeorologicalAnalysisandSupport(HAS)function..2  A  .3  HASresponsibilitiesincludeobservedandforecasttemperatureandprecipitationanalyses..2  A  .3  HASfunctionservesaliaisonbetweenRFCandWFOonissuessuchastemperatureandprecipitation-#%z{|-2  I  .3  NWSStructureandRolesinSupportofHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  CoordinationBetweenRFCsandWFOs..2  A  .3  RFCsarerepositoriesofhydrologicexpertise..2  A  .3  RFCsworkwithWFOstoprovidenecessarytrainingonhydrologicissuesofimportancetotheWFO....2  1  .3  FlashFloodGuidance....2  1  .3  Smallbasin,site-specificoperations-#&}~-2  I  .3  NWSStructureandRolesinSupportofHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  CoordinationBetweenRFCsandWFOs..2  A  .3  RFCsandWFOshaveoverlappingcustomers..2  A  .3  RFCsandWFOsworktogethertoprovidenecessaryinformationtotheseoverlappingcustomers-# )*+-2  I  .3  NWSStructureandRolesinSupportofHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  HydrologicOutreach..2  A  .3  OutreachconductedinsupportofNWSmission..2  A  .3  WFO-hasprimaryroleforoutreach/coordinationwith:....2  1  .3  EmergencyManagement....2  1  .3  Media....2  1  .3  Otherlocalusers..2  A  .3  WFOWarningCoordinationMeteorologist(WCM)istheleadonWFOoutreachactivities-#,-.-2  I  .3  NWSStructureandRolesinSupportofHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  HydrologicOutreach..2  A  .3  WFOServiceHydrologistsupportsWCMactivitieswithrespecttohydrology..2  A  .3  RFCcoordinateswithpartnersandcustomers:....2  1  .3  Otherfederalagencies....2  1  .3  Watermanagementagencies....2  1  .3  Reservoiranddamoperators..2  A  .3  ManyWFOandRFCcustomersareshared-#'-2  I  .3  NWSStructureandRolesinSupportofHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  WFOServiceHydrologist..2  A  .3  ServiceHydrologist(SH)servesastheHydrologicServicesProgramManagerwithintheWFO..2  A  .3  NotallWFOshaveaSH....2  1  .3  SomeSHsresponsibleformultipleWFOs..2  A  .3  SHresponsibleforsettingupandensuringproperoperationofhydrologicsoftwareapplications..2  A  .3  SHresponsiblefortrainingWFOstaffonhydrologicoperations-#(-2  I  .3  NWSStructureandRolesinSupportofHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  WFOServiceHydrologist..2  A  .3  SHresponsibleforconductingnecessaryfieldworktoensurethatdatatosupportHydrologicServicesProgramiscurrentandreliable..2  A  .3  SHishydrologicexpertattheWFO--servesashydrologicliaisonwithRFC# /0#2  I  .3  TechnologiesUsedtoCarryOuttheProgram..2  A  .3  NEXRADWSR-88DRadar..2  A  .3  AWIPS....2  1  .3  FFMP....2  1  .3  Hydroview/MPE....2  1  .3  SiteSpecific(123(2  I  .3  TechnologiesUsedtoCarryOuttheProgram....2  1  .3  NEXRADWSR-88DRadar..2  A  .3  Implementedinmid1990s..2  A  .3  Includesprecipitationprocessingsystem(PPS)..2  A  .3  FlashFloodverificationscoresshowedsignificantimprovementwithimplementationoftheradar..2  A  .3  PPSundergoescontinuousenhancementandimprovement-#456-2  I  .3  TechnologiesUsedtoCarryOuttheProgram....2  1  .3  AWIPS..2  A  .3  Implementedinlate1990s..2  A  .3  Integratedsatellite,radar,observation,andmodeldataononeplatform..2  A  .3  Undergoescontinuousenhancement-multiplereleasesperyear1'789 12  I  .3  TechnologiesUsedtoCarryOuttheProgram....2  1  .3  AWIPS..2  A  .3  FlashFloodMonitoringandPrediction(FFMP)implementedin2001..2  A  .3  Providesmeanbasinrainfallforsmallflood-pronebasins-#:;<-2  I  .3  TechnologiesUsedtoCarryOuttheProgram....2  1  .3  AWIPS..2  A  .3  Hydroview/MPEallowsforintegrationofriverdata,pointprecipitationdata,andmulti-sensorprecipitationanalyses..2  A  .3  SiteSpecificprovidesWFOcapabilitytogenerateapoint-specificforecastforheadwaterandotherfast-repsondinglocations..2  A  .3  Demonstrationofcapabilitiesthisafternoon,"@. ,2  I  .3  TechnologiesUsedtoCarryOuttheProgram....2  1  .3  AWIPS! 2  I  .3  ! 2  I  .3  # =>#2  I  .3  HydrologicProductsandServices..2  A  .3  WFOsandRFCsissueasuiteofproductsinsupportofNWSmission..2  A  .3  Mostproductsaretext..2  A  .3  Gradualintroductionofgraphicalproductsandinformation-#?A@-2  I  .3  HydrologicProductsandServices....2  1  .3  RFCProducts..2  A  .3  Routinecoordinationanddiscussionproducts....2  1  .3  HMD....2  1  .3  HCM..2  A  .3  Dailyforecastproducts..2  A  .3  FlashFloodGuidanceproducts....2  1  .3  Areal....2  1  .3  Headwater....2  1  .3  Gridded! 2  I  .3  1'BCD 12  I  .3  HydrologicProductsandServices....2  1  .3  RFCProducts..2  A  .3  GraphicalProducts....2  1  .3  SignificantFloodOutlook1'EFG 12  I  .3  HydrologicProductsandServices....2  1  .3  RFCProducts..2  A  .3  GraphicalProducts....2  1  .3  GraphicalHMD-#HIJ-2  I  .3  HydrologicProductsandServices....2  1  .3  WFOProducts..2  A  .3  Routinedailyproducts....2  1  .3  RiverandLakeSummary....2  1  .3  HydrologicSummary/Statement..2  A  .3  Ready-Set-Goapproach....2  1  .3  Ready:HydrologicOutlook-Issued36-48hoursbeforeevent....2  1  .3  Set:WatchProducts-Issuedwithin24hoursofexpectedevent....2  1  .3  Go:WarningsandStatementsthatdescribeanon-goingevent-# "#$-2  I  .3  HydrologicProductsandServices....2  1  .3  WeatherForecastOffices..2  A  .3  Warningproductscanbearealorpoint-specific..2  A  .3  Arealproductswhenpotentialorexistingfloodingcannotbeaccountedforinforecastsforspecifichydrologiclocations..2  A  .3  FlashFloodWarningprimeexampleofarealproduct....2  1  .3  Small,ungagedwatersheds....2  1  .3  Urbanareas-# %&'-2  I  .3  HydrologicProductsandServices....2  1  .3  WeatherForecastOffices..2  A  .3  Pointspecificproductsprovidedforlocationswhere:....2  1  .3  Userrequirementhasbeendocumented....2  1  .3  Real-timedataavailable....2  1  .3  Ratingtableavailable....2  1  .3  Otherresourcesavailable..2  A  .3  Smallscalevslargescale-#KLM-2  I  .3  HydrologicProductsandServices....2  1  .3  WeatherForecastOffices..2  A  .3  Smallscalepoint-specificproducts....2  1  .3  Usuallyheadwaterorsmallertributaries....2  1  .3  NotmodeledbyRFC....2  1  .3  LocalapproachesusedbyWFOtodeterminecrest..2  A  .3  Largescalepoint-specificproducts....2  1  .3  LocationsmodeledbyRFCs....2  1  .3  RFCprovidesforecastguidancetoWFO....2  1  .3  WFOconsultswithRFCwhenchangesneededtoforecastguidance# NO#2  I  .3  TrainingtoSupportHydrologicServices..2  A  .3  NWSprovidestrainingviaacombinationofresidenceclasses,distancelearning,andteletraining..2  A  .3  NWSsupports3trainingcenters--eachfocusedondifferentaspectsofoperations,service,andscience....2  1  .3  NWSTrainingCenter....2  1  .3  COMET(CooperativeprogramforOperationalMeteorology,Education,andTraining)....2  1  .3  WDTB(WarningDecisionTrainingBranch)-#PRQ-2  I  .3  TrainingtoSupportHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  NWSTrainingCenter..2  A  .3  Focusonsystems,leadership,andoperations..2  A  .3  Offer3residencecoursesinsupportofHydrologicServices..2  A  .3  Supportssometeletraining-#STU-2  I  .3  TrainingtoSupportHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  COMET..2  A  .3  Focusonhydrometeorologicalscience..2  A  .3  Untilrecently,hydrologyhasnotbeenasignificanteffortatCOMET..2  A  .3  Newactivitiessettofocusonhydrologicscience-#VWX-2  I  .3  TrainingtoSupportHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  WDTB..2  A  .3  Trainingfocusonwarningdecision-makingprocess..2  A  .3  WSR-88Dradartraining..2  A  .3  Offersometrainingrelatedtoflashfloodforecasting/warninginconjunctionwithFFMPapplication# YZ#2  I  .3  VerificationofHydrologicServices..2  A  .3  NWSverificationandperformanceactivitiesareoutlinedinNWSpolicy..2  A  .3  Objectives:....2  1  .3  Measureservicequalityandproductaccuracy....2  1  .3  Assesscustomersatisfaction....2  1  .3  Collectdataonsignificantevents....2  1  .3  Communicateperformanceinformationtoseniorgovernmentofficials....2  1  .3  Determinerequiredserviceimprovements....2  1  .3  Assessfieldofficeoperationaleffectiveness..2  A  .3  Verificationinformationisnotusedtoevaluateindividualperformance-#[]\-2  I  .3  VerificationofHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  HydrologicVerification..2  A  .3  Hydrologicverificationconsistsof:....2  1  .3  FlashFloodWarningsissuedbyWFOs....2  1  .3  RiverstageforecastsissuedbyRFCs..2  A  .3  FlashFloodWarnings....2  1  .3  Warningsareissuedbycounty....2  1  .3  Eachwarningissuedisdatabased....2  1  .3  1Warningcoveringmultiplecountiesiscountedasaseparatewarningforeachcounty....2  1  .3  Verificationoccursonacounty-by-countybasis-#^_`-2  I  .3  VerificationofHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  HydrologicVerification..2  A  .3  FlashFloodWarnings(cont)....2  1  .3  EachWFOdocumentsFlashFloodeventsinapublicationcalledStormData....2  1  .3  Eventsaredatabsedseparatelyfromwarnings....2  1  .3  VerificationstatisticisLeadTimeofWarning....2  1  .3  LeadTime=TimeofWarning-TimeofEvent....2  1  .3  Ifwarningissuedat1200UTCandeventbeginsat1245UTC,LeadTime=45minutes....2  1  .3  Canhave0minuteleadtime....2  1  .3  Canhaveunwarnedevents-#abc-2  I  .3  VerificationofHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  HydrologicVerification..2  A  .3  RiverStageForecasts....2  1  .3  Statisticscalculatedforasubsetofallfloodwarninglocations....2  1  .3  Observedandforecaststagesarecapturedanddatabased....2  1  .3  Mean,meanabsolute,androotmeansquaredifferencesarecalculated....2  1  .3  Locationscanbegroupedaccordingtoforecastleadtimeaswellashydrologiccharacteristics:......2  a  .3  Fastrespondingstreams......2  a  .3  Intermediaterespondingstreams......2  a  .3  Slowrespondingstreams-#def-2  I  .3  VerificationofHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  GPRA..2  A  .3  GovernmentPerformanceReviewAct(GPRA)....2  1  .3  Allgovernmentagenciesrequiredtomeasureperformance....2  1  .3  Significantimplicationstofundingandresourcedecisions..2  A  .3  NWShas11GPRAmeasures....2  1  .3  HydrologicmeasuresareFlashFloodWarningLeadTimeandProbabilityofDetection-#ghi-2  I  .3  VerificationofHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  GPRA..2  A  .3  NOAAmanagementbriefedonGPRAperformanceeveryquarter....2  1  .3  NWSverificationstatisticsarebasisforbriefing..2  A  .3  GPRAmeasuresevaluatedeveryyear--opportunityformodification,"@/  ,2  I  .3  VerificationofHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  HydrologicVerification-#jkl-2  I  .3  VerificationofHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  ServiceEvaluations..2  A  .3  NWSofficesconductvariousserviceevaluationactivitieswithpartnersandcustomers..2  A  .3  Purposeofserviceevaluationactivities....2  1  .3  Measureservicequality....2  1  .3  Identifyserviceimprovementareas....2  1  .3  Encourageuseofbestpractices-# mno-2  I  .3  VerificationofHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  ServiceAssessments..2  A  .3  NWSconductsserviceassessmentsaftersignificanthydrometeorologicalevents....2  1  .3  Eventresultedinasignificantontheeconomyofalargeareaorpopulation....2  1  .3  Eventresultedinasignificantnumberoffatalities....2  1  .3  Eventresultedinasignificantnumberofinjuriesrequiringhospitalization....2  1  .3  Eventresultedinextensivenationalpublicinterestormediacoverage....2  1  .3  EventresultedinanunusuallevelofscrutinyofNWSoperationsbymedia,emergencymanagementcommunityorelectedofficials-#!pqr-2  I  .3  VerificationofHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  ServiceAssessments..2  A  .3  ServiceassessmentsreportonNWSperformanceduringsignificantevents....2  1  .3  Completedwithin90days....2  1  .3  Identifiesbestcaseoperationalproceduresandpractices....2  1  .3  Identifiesservicedeficiencies..2  A  .3  Actionitemsidentifedandtracked((2  I  .3  FutureofHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  AdvancedHydrologicPredictionService(AHPS)..2  A  .3  AHPSisacongressionallyfundedserviceimprovementprogramthatallowstheincrementalintroductionofnewproductsandservicesacrossthecountry-#)-2  I  .3  FutureofHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  AdvancedHydrologicPredictionService(AHPS)..2  A  .3  AHPSgoals:....2  1  .3  Producemoreaccurateproductsincorporatingadvancedhydrologicscienceintoourmodels....2  1  .3  Providemorespecificandtimelyinformationonfast-risingfloodswithincreasedleadtime....2  1  .3  Createeasiertouseproductsinnewformats,includinggraphics....2  1  .3  Createinformationusefulinassessingrisktofloodingincludingforecastprobability-#*-2  I  .3  FutureofHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  AdvancedHydrologicPredictionService(AHPS)..2  A  .3  AHPSgoals(cont):....2  1  .3  Provideproductswithforecasthorizonsfortwoweeksintothefutureandbeyond....2  1  .3  Increasethedistributionofproductsusingadvancedinformationtechnologies(e.g.Internet)therefore,providingbroaderandmoretimelyaccessanddeliveryofinformation....2  1  .3  Expandoutreachandengagepartnersandcustomersinallaspectsofhydrologicproductimprovement-#+-2  I  .3  FutureofHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  AdvancedHydrologicPredictionService(AHPS)..2  A  .3  AHPSServicesatforecastpoints:....2  1  .3  Basic-hydrographdepictingobservedandforecastconditions....2  1  .3  Enhanced-shortthrulongtermprobabilisticinformation....2  1  .3  Partnered-floodforecastmapping!  2  I  .3  !  2  I  .3  !  2  I  .3  !  2  I  .3  -#,-2  I  .3  FutureofHydrologicServices....2  1  .3  AdvancedHydrologicPredictionService(AHPS)..2  A  .3  AHPSServiceThemes:....2  1  .3  Short-fused,smallbasinhydrology....2  1  .3  Probabilisticservices....2  1  .3  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