Significant Weather Page - Flood Threat

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FLUS43 KJKL 190714
HWOJKL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
314 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-200715-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City,
Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville,
Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City,
Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville,
Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton,
Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson,
Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden,
Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville,
and South Williamson
314 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible through this afternoon, and may possibly
linger into this evening near the Virginia border. Storms could
produce gusty winds, small hail, and brief downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Frost is possible in many locations early Monday morning.

Thunderstorms are possible in some locations Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

JKL

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FXUS63 KJKL 191122
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
722 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will pass through the area today, bringing
showers/thunderstorms for most if not all locations.

- Cooler and more seasonable temperatures will arrive behind the
cold front and carry through the first part of next week.

- Frost will be possible in some sheltered valley locations Sunday
morning, but is expected to become widespread Monday morning,
especially through the valleys.

- Another cold front is forecast for late Tuesday through
Wednesday morning, bringing another round of rain along with a
possible thunderstorm.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 714 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2024

Made minor tweaks to PoPs and Sky grids, as well as blending in
latest observations to the NDFD forecast grids. If present trends
continue the late morning update might be able to clear north and
west areas from any thunderstorm mention behind the current
showers and thunderstorms moving across eastern Kentucky.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2024

Shortwave disturbance within zonal flow continues to fire off
early morning shower and thunderstorm activity, with additional
convective activity through the mid- and late morning periods
before cold frontal passage during the afternoon hours today. A
Marginal Risk for an isolated severe storm or two exists with the
primary threat being gusty winds, with small hail a lesser threat.

Even though the cold front passes in the afternoon, low clouds
and low-level moisture will linger ahead of a secondary cold
frontal passage tonight that will be the leading edge of a much
cooler and drier air mass into the region along with a slight
increase in northwest winds. Dry and stable conditions will occur
Saturday, with high clouds arriving in the late afternoon and
early evening ahead of the next system arriving from the west.

Temperatures today will begin a decreasing trend as increased clouds
and precipitation along with a cold frontal passage brings cooler
weather into the region, with highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s,
which is close to normal for this time of year. With low-level
moisture and clouds lingering along the highest terrain of southeast
Kentucky for much if not all of tonight, lows will fall only
slightly below normal with lower to mid 40s, with perhaps some upper
30s in sheltered valleys that can clear out especially in
northeastern parts of our CWA. Despite sunny to mostly sunny skies
Saturday, high temperatures will be around 4 to 8 degrees below
normal with highs in the lower to mid 60s within a cold advection
regime.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 256 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2024

The period begins with the are the base of a flattened trough, with
zonal flow, that`ll slowly eject off to the east through the
overnight Saturday into Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will
continue to nudge into the region allowing for dry weather for first
part of the period. However, the area will be on the backside of an
exiting trough and cold front with CAA occurring through the early
part of next week. Surface high pressure, coupled with clear skies
and CAA, areas of near freezing temperatures and frost chances will
increase Sunday night and again Monday night.

Temperatures will be on the cooler side to start the period but as
an upper-level wave moves across Canada, upper-level flow will back
to the southwest allowing for temperatures to gradually warm through
the middle of next week. As the associated surface wave moves across
the Great Lakes, a cold front extending southwest through the Ohio
Valley will gradually approach the area for the middle of next week.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected along and head of the front
but with frontal timing expected to be late Tuesday night and into
the day Wednesday, severe thunderstorms chances look to be limited.
Ahead of the front, temperatures are forecast to climb back into the
70s before cold frontal passage lowers them back into the mid-60s
for the remainder of the week. Model confidence begins to degrade
toward the end of the period as model solutions deviate on how to
handle a system for the end of the period; therefore, opted to stick
with the NBM.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2024

VFR conditions with embedded MVFR/IFR conditions in areas of
showers and thunderstorms will quickly give way to deteriorating
ceilings to widespread low MVFR to IFR in its wake ahead of a cold
frontal passage this afternoon. However, it will take a secondary
cold frontal passage late tonight to usher in a drier air mass
and help to clear skies. Therefore, expect the low-MVFR and IFR
cigs to be slow to improve until late afternoon or the evening,
with considerable uncertainty as to when VFR conditions return
tonight. Outside of thunderstorms, expect light southwest winds
becoming northwesterly at 10 kts or less this afternoon with the
frontal passage.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC