National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service
Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center, Slidell LA
1235 PM CST Wednesday March 1 2017

Lower Mississippi Valley - Spring Flood Potential Outlook
              National Weather Service
Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center - Slidell, LA
          valid for Thursday March 2 2017


Streamflow data provided by the U.S. Geological Survey and
the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

...Introduction...

Over the past several months, below normal precipitation has occurred over
the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. Warmer temperatures have kept
areas in the lower Mississippi River from receiving significant snow this
season. Snow depths of 2 to 4 inches are confined to portions of Minnesota,
Wisconsin, and north Iowa. Snow water equivalents are generally 0.5 inches or
less. The remainder of the area is snow free.

Soil moisture conditions are generally below normal over the lower Missouri and
middle Mississippi Valleys and near normal over lower Ohio Valley.

...Mississippi River below Chester IL AND Ohio River below
Smithland Dam IL (WFOs PAH/MEG/JAN/LIX/LCH)...

The flood season has been uneventful on the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers.
Streamflows have been near to below normal and no flooding has occurred this
season. The current forecast shows no flooding over the next couple of weeks but
higher flows will occur later into March.

See the chart below for specific locations showing percent of normal
streamflows:

                                            3/1
Mississippi River              Thebes IL    111%
Ohio River                      Cairo IL     67%
Mississippi River             Memphis TN     36%
Mississippi River       Arkansas City AR     49%
Mississippi River           Vicksburg MS     66%
Mississippi River             Natchez MS     70%
Mississippi River   Red River Landing LA     75%
Mississippi River         Baton Rouge LA     74%
Mississippi River         New Orleans LA     74%
Atchafalaya River          Simmesport LA     75%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflow conditions, and normal spring
rainfall patterns; an Average Flood Potential is expected along the lower
Mississippi and lower Ohio Rivers. The magnitude of future crests will depend on
the amount and extent of any upstream accumulation of snow cover and resultant
snowmelt; coupled with the frequency, intensity, and extent of spring rains.

...French Broad/Upper Pigeon...Little Tennessee...Tuckasegee
...and Hiwassee Basins (WFO GSP/MRX)...

Streamflows continue to run below normal along all rivers in the outlook area.
Soil moisture content is also below normal. No flooding is occurring or forecast
at this time. Observed daily streamflows as a percent of median are given below.

          1/4 1/18  2/1  2/15  3/1
French Broad River          Asheville NC     78%  42%  47%   42%  33%
Pigeon River                    Hepco NC     74%  39%  52%   50%  40%
Tuckasegee River          Bryson City NC     61%  67%  54%   47%  45%
Little Tennessee River       Needmore NC     76%  34%  38%   33%  57%

Based on existing soil moisture content, streamflows, and Climate Prediction
Center outlooks; a Below Average Flood Potential is expected for the French
Broad, Upper Little Tennessee, Tuckasegee, and Pigeon River Basins.

...East Tennessee River Valley (WFO RNK/MRX/FFC)...

Overnight rainfall has temporarily elevated streamflows to normal and above
normal. Long term soil moisture content continues to run below normal. No
flooding is occurring or expected during the next several days. Observed daily
streamflows as a percent of median are given below.

     3/1
N Fork Holston River        Saltville VA    111%
Clinch River                Cleveland VA     84%
Clinch River                 Tazewell TN     88%
Powell River                   Arthur TN    100%
Emory River                   Oakdale TN    175%


Based on existing soil moisture content, streamflows, and Climate Prediction
Center Outlooks; a Below Average Flood Potential is expected for the East
Tennessee River Valley.


...Duck/Buffalo/Elk River Basins (WFO OHX)...

Currently, streamflows are running normal to below normal. Soil moisture content
is near seasonal averages. No flooding is occurring or expected over the next
several days. Observed daily streamflows as a percent of median are given below.

                                             3/1
Duck River                Shelbyville TN     98%
Duck River                   Columbia TN     66%
Buffalo River              Lobelville TN     52%

Based on existing soil moisture content, streamflows, and Climate Prediction
Center Outlooks; an Average Flood Potential is expected for the middle
Tennessee Basins.

...Flint/Paint Rock/Big Nance Basins (WFO HUN)...

Long term drought conditions continue over north Alabama. Soil moisture content
is well below normal but overnight rainfall has temporarily elevated the
streamflows to above normal. No flooding is occurring or expected over the next
several days. Observed daily streamflows as a percent of median are given below.

                                              3/1
Paint Rock River            Woodville AL     352%
Flint River                Brownsboro AL     251%
Big Nance River             Courtland AL     226%

Based on existing soil moisture content, streamflows, and Climate Prediction
Center Outlooks; a Below Average Flood Potential is expected for the northern
Alabama Basins.

...Obion/Loosahatchie/Hatchie/Wolf Basins (WFO MEG)...

Soil moisture and streamflows are at seasonal levels. No flooding is occurring
or expected over the next several days. Observed daily streamflows as a percent
of median are given below.

                                             3/1
Hatchie River                 Bolivar TN     36%
Wolf River                 Germantown TN    198%

Based on existing soil moisture content, streamflows, and Climate Prediction
Center Outlooks; an Average Flood Potential is expected for the western
Tennessee Basins.

...St. Francis Basin of south Missouri (WFO PAH/MEG)...

Over the past 60 days, the St. Francis Basin has received below normal
precipitation and streamflow conditions accordingly have been below normal.
No flooding is occurring or expected during the next several days. Observed
daily streamflows as a percent of median are given below.

                                            2/15  3/1
St. Francis River           Patterson MO     39%  42%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring rainfall
patterns; a Below Average Flood Potential is expected over the St. Francis
Basin. Percent of available flood control storage for the St. Francis Reservoirs
are given below.

                                             2/15   3/1
                      Wappapello Res. MO     100%  100%

...Black/Upper White Basins (WFO SGF/LSX/PAH/TSA)...

Below normal precipitation has occurred over the past 60 days. Soil moisture
content and streamflow conditions are below normal. No flooding is occurring or
expected during the next several days. Observed daily streamflow as a percent of
median are given below.

                                            2/15  3/1
Black River                 Annapolis MO     41%  48%
Black River              Poplar Bluff MO     68%  67%
James River                    Galena MO     32%  28%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring rainfall
patterns; a Below Average Flood Potential is expected over the Black and Upper
White Basins.

Percent of available flood control storage for the Black/Upper White Basin
Reservoirs are given below.

                                            2/15   3/1
                      Clearwater Res. MO    100%  100%
                          Beaver Res. AR    100%  100%
                      Table Rock Res. MO    100%  100%
                     Bull Shoals Res. AR    100%  100%
                         Norfork Res. AR    100%  100%

...Lower White River Basins (WFO LZK)...

Streamflows have remained below normal this year due to less than normal
rainfall. Soil moisture is below normal and no flooding is occurring or expected
during the next several days. Observed daily streamflows as a percent of median
are given below.

                                             3/1
White River              Batesville  AR      64%
White River                 Newport  AR      51%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring rainfall
patterns; a Below Average Flood Potential is expected over the lower White
Basins.

...Lower Arkansas Basin Below Pine Bluff AR (WFO LZK)...

Soil moisture conditions are normal to below normal for the Arkansas River
Basin. Observed flow along the lower Arkansas River is currently 32000 cfs which
is 42% of normal compared to the long term average of 76000 cfs for early March.
Based on current soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring rainfall
patterns; an Average Flood Potential is expected over the lower Arkansas Basin.

...Ouachita/Black Basins of Arkansas and Louisiana  (WFO LZK/SHV/JAN)...

Streamflows are running near seasonal averages. Soil moisture content
is near normal and no flooding is occurring or expected at this time. Observed
daily streamflows as a percent of median are given below.

                                             3/1
Ouachita River                 Camden AR    119%
Ouachita River                 Monroe LA     88%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring rainfall
patterns; an Average Flood Potential is expected over the Ouachita and
Black River Basins.

Percent of available reservoir flood control storage is given below.

                                            3/1
                        Lake Ouachita AR    100%
                          Degray Res. AR    100%

 ...Lower Red Basin Below Fulton AR (WFO FWD/SHV/LCH)...

Streamflows have generally been near seasonal averages and soil moisture is
normal to below normal. No flooding is occurring or expected over the next
several days. Percent of available reservoir flood control storage is given
below.

                                             3/1
                          Cooper Res. TX    100%
                       Texarkana Res. TX     97%
                        Lake O` Pines TX     99%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring rainfall
patterns; an Average Flood Potential is expected over the lower Red River
Valley.

...BIG BLACK BASINS IN MISSISSIPPI (WFO JAN)...

Soil moisture and streamflows have been seasonal to below seasonal averages. No
flooding is occurring or expected over the next several days. Observed daily
streamflows as a percent of median are given below.

                                             3/1
Big Black River                  West MS    107%
Big Black River                Bovina MS     29%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring rainfall
patterns; an Average Flood Potential is expected over the Big Black River
Basin.

...Yazoo Basin in Mississippi (WFO MEG/JAN)...

Streamflows are running below seasonal averages. Soil moisture content is near
seasonal averages and no flooding is expected during the next several days.
Percent of available flood control storage is given below.


                                             3/1
                       Arkabutla Res. MS     96%
                          Sardis Res. MS     95%
                            Enid Res. MS     94%
                         Grenada Res. MS     92%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring rainfall
patterns; an Average Flood Potential is expected over the Yazoo River Basin.

...Calcasieu/Mermentau Basins in southwest Louisiana (WFO LCH)...

Soil moisture content is near normal and streamflows are running below normal. Seasonalflooding has occurred this year but all locations are currently below flood stage. Observed daily streamflows as a percent of median are given below.

                                              3/1
Calcasieu River              Glenmora LA      30%
Calcasieu River                Kinder LA      41%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring rainfall
patterns; an Average Flood Potential is expected over the Mermentau and
Calcasieu Basins.

...Pearl River Basin (WFO JAN LIX)...

Soil moisture content and streamflows have been normal to below seasonal
averages. No flooding is occurring or expected over the next several days.
Observed daily streamflows as a percent of median are given below.

                                              3/1
Pearl River                  Carthage MS      36%
Pearl River                  Columbia MS      23%
Pearl River                  Bogalusa LA      24%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring rainfall
patterns; an Average Flood Potential is expected over the Pearl River
Basin.

...Amite/Comite/Northshore Drainage Basins (WFO LIX)...

During the winter, seasonal rainfall in January produced some minor flooding in
the basin. No flooding is occurring or expected over the next several days. Soil
moisture content and streamflows are near seasonal levels. Observed daily
streamflows as a percent of median are given below.

                                              3/1
Amite River                Darlington LA      41%
Amite River            Denham Springs LA      68%
Comite River             Olive Branch LA     128%
Tchefuncte River               Folsom LA     103%
Tickfaw River                  Holden LA      63%
Tangipahoa River               Robert LA      70%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring rainfall
patterns; an Average Flood Potential is expected over the Amite, Comite,
and Northshore River Basins.

...Pascagoula Basin in south Mississippi (WFO JAN MOB LIX).....

Seasonal rainfall in January caused minor flooding over portions of the basin.
No flooding is occurring or expected over the next several days. Soil moisture
contetnt is near seasonal levels while streamflows are running below normal. Observed daily streamflows as a percent of median are given below.

                                              3/1
Leaf River                     McLain MS      67%
Chickasawhay River        Leakesville MS      54%
Pascagoula River              Merrill MS      54%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring rainfall
patterns; an Average Flood Potential is expected over the Pascagoula River
Basin.

...Extended Temperature and Precipitation Outlook...

The 8-14 Day Outlook issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center indicates
chances of above normal temperatures. Chances of below normal precipitation
are expected over Gulf Coast and Tennessee Valley while equal chances of
above/below normal precipitation is expected over the remainder of the lower
Mississippi Valley.

The 30 Day Outlook indicates chances of above normal temperatures across the
area. Equal chances of above/below normal precipitation is indicated over the
lower Mississippi Valley.

The 90 Day Outlook issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center indicates
chances of above normal temperatures over the lower Mississippi Valley. Equal
chances of above/below normal precipitation is indicated over the lower
Mississippi Valley.

This will be the last scheduled springflood outlook for 2017.