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Product Description and Call for Public Feedback

Contents:

1. Overview
2. Product Description
3. Methodology
4. Availability
5. Examples
6. Feedback and Comments

3. Methodology

The experimental Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Probabilities product is a statistical combination of an ensemble of SLOSH model runs. All ensemble members are based on the current NHC tropical cyclone advisory. Ensemble members take into account historical error characteristics by varying input parameters such as forward speed, cross track location, radius of maximum wind, and hurricane intensity. Two types of probability values are produced: cumulative probabilities and exceedance heights. The cumulative probabilities indicate the overall chance that storm surges will be more than N feet (where N = 2 - 10) above normal tide levels at a given location during the hurricane. The exceedance height is the storm surge height, above normal tide levels, such that there is a 10 percent chance of exceeding it.

A full description of other NWS Tropical Cyclone Weather Services Program Products is provided in NWSI 10-601, which is available on the Internet at: http://www.weather.gov/directives/sym/pd01006001curr.pdf.