Drought Information Statement for New Hampshire and Western Maine October 2 2025 Issued By: NWS Gray Maine Contact Information: gyx.skywarn@noaa.gov Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Worst drought conditions in over 20 years for parts of Maine and New Hampshire with Extreme Drought Conditions (D3) present New Hampshire had its highest coverage of extreme drought in the history of the U.S. Drought Monitor (since 2000) at 32.80% Recent rain brought some brief relief, but no sustainable drought improvements Required Slide https://docs.google.com/document/d/1vZogJDIrCFtbid42QlRJO3fyxHQhjVLUU3c0HHHlKGU/edit Directions for Brief 1 U.S. Drought Monitor U.S. Drought Monitor for the Northeast Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): Grafton & Carroll Counties, plus small sections of other counties in New Hampshire, Southern Oxford / Franklin / Somerset, Northern Cumberland, Androscoggin, and Kennebec / Waldo Counties in Maine. D2 (Severe Drought): Northern Grafton, Southern Carroll, Coos Counties, Sullivan, Merrimack, Belknap, Strafford, and northern Rockingham Counties in New Hampshire. Northern Oxford and Franklin Counties, Southern Androscoggin and Kennebec Counties, Waldo, Knox, Lincoln, Sagadahoc, Southern Cumberland, and Somerset counties in Maine. D1 (Moderate Drought): Cheshire,Hillsborough, and Rockingham Counties in New Hampshire. Required Recent Change in Drought Intensity 4-week change map for New England Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. 2 class degradation in the White Mountains of New Hampshire Generally 1 class degradation or no change elsewhere Drought impacts can vary based on type of sector (fire, agriculture, water management, recreational, etc. ) and on local infiltration rates based on soil types. A drought category defines the general regional level of impact, but local impacts can be more or less severe than the categories suggest. Precipitation Maine and New Hampshire saw beneficial rainfall last week, but for most areas, it only provided a temporary reprieve from severe to extreme drought conditions. The heaviest rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches fell over the most drought stricken areas Dry weather conditions followed the rainmaker of the 26th 7 Day Observed Precipitation Sep 25 - Oct 1 Drought Task Force Holder Precipitation- 30 Day 30 Day Precipitation Ending Oct 1, 2025 Drought Task Force Holder Precipitation Deficits Regional View Maps of Departures from Normal by County Local Departures 2-4” Local Departures 3-8” Local Departures 4-10” Drought Task Force Holder Precipitation Deficits 30 Day Ending Sep 30 60 Day Ending Sep 30 90 Day Ending Sep 30 Drought Task Force Holder Precipitation % of Normal Precipitation anomalies were near normal for central Maine, but generally below normal for the rest of the region for September The last 90 days have been around 50% of normal or less ADD 90 Day% Normal https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-90-day-precipitation_-percent-of-prism-normal-new-england.png Temperature Anomalies Temperatures were well above normal for September, and above normal during the summer season. Evaporation was well above normal as a result. LEGEND CUT OFF Resource provided for updating photos not available in northeast 3 Week Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) Evaporation EDDI is a drought monitoring tool that shows the anomaly in daily evaporative demand over a given period of time. Above normal temperatures and a stretch of 14-17 days of no rainfall in September led to above normal evaporation across the region. Unusually high evaporative demand can lead to moisture stress on the land surface, and ultimately to drought—even when precipitation has been near-normal. LEGEND CUT OFF Resource provided for updating photos not available in northeast Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Drought conditions have reduced rivers to much below to new all time daily recorded low levels for September based on USGS streamflow stations. Streamflows briefly returned to normal levels at the end of September, but quickly receded to near pre-storm levels due to the severe drought conditions Image 1 (left): USGS 7-Day Streamflow based on the percentile of existing streamflow records on this day of the year. Image 2 (right): USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map. Agricultural Impacts Despite soaking rainfall on September 26, by the 30th soil moisture percentiles were well below climatological normals, confirming the severe and extreme drought conditions Note: Soil moisture percentiles already take into account seasonality and fall is already the driest time of year, so being dry at the driest time of year is exceptional. NWM Soil Moisture Map indicating the moisture content of the top 4 inches of soil compared to historical conditions based on NOAA’s National Water Model. Note the soil moisture depletion between September 29 and October 1 due to drier conditions below the topsoils and evaporative loss at the surface. Top Soil Moisture National Current Conditions | Drought.gov (Left) NWM Soil Moisture Map indicating the moisture content of 4-16 inches of soil compared to historical conditions based on NOAA’s National Water Model. Soil Moisture (Right) NWM Soil Moisture Map indicating the moisture content of the 40-79 inches of soil compared to historical conditions based on NOAA’s National Water Model. National Current Conditions | Drought.gov Groundwater Impacts Location: Carroll County, New Hampshire Location: Oxford County, Maine Several groundwater monitoring wells are Below to Much Below Normal. Drought Task Force Holder Statewide Runoff Location: Carroll County, New Hampshire Location: Oxford County, Maine Several groundwater monitoring wells are Below to Much Below Normal. Drought Task Force Holder Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Climate prediction center drought outlooks favor drought persistence with some improvement by late December October and November are often the wettest months in Maine and New Hampshire The end of the growing season means less water demand and more water used for groundwater recharge Required Rainfall needed to “end the drought” Generally speaking, much of drought-stricken areas needs 125-175% of normal precipitation over the next few months to ameliorate drought conditions before the ground freezes Once frozen, precipitation that would normally replenish groundwater won’t soaking in, leaving wells and aquifers with little recovery until the spring thaw Steady, light-rain events with high absorption rates are ideal As little as 6” above normal rainfall could be sufficient for some locations Harder hit areas may need as much as 12” of extra rainfall spread out over months to see full recovery Month Normal Rainfall Inches October 4.5-5 November 4.5-5 December 4.0-4.5 Total 13-14.5 Much of the area needs 6 or more inches of additional rainfall to “end the drought” 6-10 Day Outlooks Drought Task Force Holder 8-14 Day Outlooks Drought Task Force Holder Fall Outlook The Climate Prediction Center outlook for Fall (OND) indicates strong signals favoring above normal temperatures but does not show any strong climate signals for precipitation. Conditions are similar to last fall. Fire Hazard Impacts Prolonged drying conditions have rapidly depleted the moisture from our last significant rainfall with elevated fire weather concerns expected to return as a result. Temperatures trend well above normal through Monday (10/6) which will increase drying of fuels. Some precipitation is looking likely toward the middle of next week (10/7-8), but confidence on significant amounts is low. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Image Captions: NIFC September Significant Fire Potential Outlook Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Despite recent rises, most rivers and streams have receded back to well below normal levels for this date based on USGS gauges. Groundwater Impacts Dry wells have been reportedly increasing across both Maine and New Hampshire as groundwater levels decline despite slight rebounds from recent rains. Click on your respective state for a link to report a dry well New Hampshire Dry Well Survey Maine Dry Well Survey Fire Hazard Impacts Limited soil moisture continues to put stress on trees leading to early shedding of leaves. Colder temperatures will be realized further south as Fall continues, leading to annual grasses shutting down in those areas as well. Other Impacts Water management, agricultural, fisheries, and forestry impacts have been reported. Reach out to the various representatives from those sectors for more information regarding specific impacts. Mitigation Actions Call to Actions: Conserve water, practice fire prevention, and follow directions from local officials. Required Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Summarize conditions and impacts here Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Summarize conditions/impacts here Main Takeaways The latest US Drought Monitor has 100% of Maine and 100% of New Hampshire classified as D0 or greater drought conditions, and 33% of New Hampshire and 16% of Maine experiencing an Extreme Drought (D3) Beneficial rainfall brought short-term and limited relief to drought stricken areas in late September, but it was insufficient to improve drought categories and much of that rainfall has already been depleted either by vegetation, runoff, or evaporation Streamflows were low to very low - 10th to 24th percentile or less with several sites in daily record lows Additional impacts include but are not limited to declining lake levels, dried swamps and a growing number of dry wells being reported. D1 or more severe drought regions need 6 or more inches of additional rainfall, roughly 125-175% of normal, between now and when the ground freezes to improve drought conditions, otherwise drought could linger through the winter Drought-reducing rainfall is not on in the forecast at this time, however shorter days and cooler temperatures will lessen evaporation compared to the the past few months. Steady state in the drought classification is likely over the next week. Required Past ME & NH Droughts The periods of statewide hydrologic drought that were most severe were 1947-50 and 1999-2002. The current drought is the worst drought observed in the White Mountains region since 2001 Past D3 Events in Maine: Dec 2001-Mar 2002 Central/East Sep 2020-Nov 2020 NE NW SW Past D3 Events in New Hampshire: Sep 2020-Dec 2020 SE Aug 2022 S NH Note: USDM was developed in 1999 Resources on Past Maine Drought: USGS Drought Conditions Maine 1999-2002 Gray-Portland, ME National Weather Service 2:08 PM Contact Information Briefing Webpage www.weather.gov/gyx/EMhome https://www.weather.gov/gyx/drought Disclaimer Information contained in this briefing is time-sensitive Do Not Use After: October 9, 2025 ! Contact Information Web www.weather.gov/gyx Phone (public) (207) 688-3216 Email gyx.skywarn@noaa.gov sarah.jamison@noaa.gov Facebook NWSGray Twitter @NWSGray Mandatory! Update the next briefing information. If this is the last briefing, replace the first bullet with “This is the last update unless conditions warrant.” and delete the “Method” bullet. 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