Drought Information Statement for New Hampshire and Western Maine November 1, 2023 Issued By: NWS Gray Maine Contact Information: gyx.skywarn@noaa.gov Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Recent improvements to surface water conditions are the first signs of drought recovery Extreme drought conditions (D3) remain for a large part Maine and New Hampshire due primarily to lingering groundwater deficits Required Slide https://docs.google.com/document/d/1vZogJDIrCFtbid42QlRJO3fyxHQhjVLUU3c0HHHlKGU/edit Directions for Brief 1 U.S. Drought Monitor U.S. Drought Monitor for the Northeast Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): 38% of New Hampshire 43% of Maine D2 (Severe Drought): 45% of New Hampshire 38% of Maine D1 (Moderate Drought): 17% of New Hampshire 10% of Maine D0 (Abnormally Dry): None 100% of Maine and New Hampshire in Moderate Drought (D1) or worse Severity Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor valid October November 4, 2025 Required Recent Change in Drought Intensity 4 week change map for New England 4 Week Drought Monitor Class Change D3 Expansion northward in Maine and in New Hampshire Generally 1 class degradation from central Maine northward from D0 to D2 2 week Data Tables Recent Change in Drought Intensity 1 week change map for New England One Week Drought Monitor Class Change Some D2 expansion and reductions across parts of northern Maine October 28, 2025 November 4 2025 Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor 4-week change map valid November 4, 2025 U.S. Drought Monitor Weekly Maps Recent Precipitation Heavy rainfall was observed on October 29-30th, followed by an active pattern with on/off showers thereafter. Note: November is often one of the wettest months of the year, and averages close to 5 inches regionally for the month Month-to-Date Precipitation Ending October 30 2025 Month-to-Date Precipitation % of Normal Ending October 30 2025 Drought Task Force Holder Recent Precipitation Near to above normal rainfall occurred across the White Mountains and foothills of the Western ME Mountains, elsewhere were generally below normal particularly along the southern ME coast. Month-to-Date Precipitation Ending October 30 2025 Month-to-Date Precipitation % of Normal Ending October 30 2025 Drought Task Force Holder Precipitation- 30 Day Precipitation amounts increased in late October and early November, but remained well below normal for the first half of October. Overall precipitation was below normal for much of the region apart from the White Mountains Drought Task Force Holder Precipitation Deficits 30 Days 90 Days Since June 1 Ending November 5 Drought Task Force Holder Precipitation Deficits- Regional View Maps of Departures from Normal by County Local Departures 1-2” Local Departures 2-4” Local Departures 4-10” Drought Task Force Holder Precipitation % of Normal Precipitation anomalies were near normal for the White Mountains Region and parts of the Foothills of the Western Maine Mountains, but generally below normal for the rest of the region through early November The last 90 days have been around 50% of normal or less ADD 90 Day% Normal https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-90-day-precipitation_-percent-of-prism-normal-new-england.png Temperature Anomalies 30 and 90 Day temperature anomalies all indicated above normal temperatures across both Maine and New Hampshire. The above normal temperatures were the main drivers for excessive evaporation, a primary driver for the drought. LEGEND CUT OFF Resource provided for updating photos not available in northeast Short Term Drought Index The Short-Term Multi-Indicator Drought Index (MIDI) estimates current short-term drought conditions across the U.S. by combining several indicators of drought into a single, map from changes in precipitation and moisture over the past 3 months. This experimental map is based on methodology from the NOAA National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center. LEGEND CUT OFF Resource provided for updating photos not available in northeast Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) Evaporation Evaporation rates dropped off in late October due to cooler temperatures and wetter conditions. Cumulative EDDI over the last few months were a primary catalyst in the 2025 drought. Looking at rainfall deficits alone does not quantify the drought magnitude if the evaporative losses aren’t included. LEGEND CUT OFF Resource provided for updating photos not available in northeast Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) Evaporation-National View LEGEND CUT OFF Resource provided for updating photos not available in northeast Satellite Based Estimated Relative Humidity Anomalies Evaporation Satellite data from AIRS used to estimate CONUS relative humidity anomalies over the last 56 days The final integrated AIRS data often, but not always, follows these drought regimes: D0: Abnormally dry (yellow) D1: Moderate drought (tan) D2: Severe drought (orange) D3: Extreme drought (red) D4: Exceptional drought (brown) Anomaly plot of 56-day-averaged CONUS Surface Relative Humidity for 56 days ending Oct 21, 2025 source Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) onboard NASA’s Aqua satellite Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streams have returned to normal flows for much of the region, initial signs of recovery as the surface water recharges. Image 1 (left): USGS 7-Day Streamflow based on the percentile of existing streamflow records on this day of the year. Image 2 (right): USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map. USGS Streamgage Information Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Image 1 (Left): USGS 7-Day Streamflow Runoff Duration Hydrograph for Maine based on the percentile of existing streamflow records on this day of the year. USGS Streamgage Information Image 2 (Right): USGS 7 day Runoff Duration Hydrograph for New Hampshire based on the percentile of existing streamflow records on this day of the year. (Left) NWM Soil Moisture Map indicating the moisture content of 4-16 inches of soil compared to historical conditions based on NOAA’s National Water Model. Soil Moisture (Right) NWM Soil Moisture Map indicating the moisture content of the 40-79 inches of soil compared to historical conditions based on NOAA’s National Water Model. National Water Model Soil Moisture Estimates National Current Conditions | Drought.gov Soil Moisture Deeper soil moisture percentiles remain well below climatological normals, confirming the severe and extreme drought conditions remain Some improvement was made in the hardest hit D3 region in the western Maine Mountains and White Mountain ranges Satellite Based This map shows the moisture content of the top 1 meter of soil compared to historical conditions from 1981–2013, based on NASA's Short-term Prediction and Transition Center – Land Information System (SPoRT-LIS). https://www.drought.gov/watersheds/New-England Soil Moisture Satellite Based Image: Peak soil moisture depletion around Oct 20 2025 based on analysis of NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-200 cm percentiles Image: NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-200 cm soil moisture percentiles at the beginning of August, September, October, and November of 2025 https://www.drought.gov/watersheds/New-England Groundwater Levels Several groundwater monitoring wells are Below to Much Below Normal per NH Groundwater monitoring dashboard (https://nhdes.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/6b333fa640994c17a31993a9e5298043) and the USGS Groundwater Levels (https://newengland.water.usgs.gov/web_app/GWW/GWW.html) in New England dashboard. Drought Task Force Holder Groundwater Levels Several groundwater monitoring wells are Below to Much Below Normal per NH Groundwater monitoring dashboard (https://nhdes.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/6b333fa640994c17a31993a9e5298043) and the USGS Groundwater Levels (https://newengland.water.usgs.gov/web_app/GWW/GWW.html) in New England dashboard. Groundwater network in NH indicated limited improvements to groundwater conditions compared to climatology, despite recent rainfall NH Groundwater Network Conditions Since July 1 Drought Task Force Holder Groundwater Impacts Above are two real-time wells observations (red dots) with climatology percentiles in the background. (Left) A USGS groundwater well in Oxford Maine with a period of record from 1980. (Right) Groundwater well from Lisbon New Hampshire in Grafton County from 2006. Drought Task Force Holder 7- Day Rainfall Forecast An active weather pattern is on pace to impact the region over the next 7 days There will be multiple low pressure systems with wind, rain, and some snow Forecasted precipitation totals could reach an inch or more, particularly in the mountains Drought Task Force Holder 6-10 Day Outlooks Equal chances for near, above, or below normal precipitation 40-50% chance of below normal temperatures Drought Task Force Holder 8-14 Day Outlooks There are no strong signals for mid November due to large swings expected in the weather pattern, likely to favor near average on the whole Drought Task Force Holder Rainfall needed to “end the drought” 125-150% of normal precipitation over the next 2 months is needed to ameliorate drought conditions before the ground freezes Once frozen, precipitation that would normally replenish groundwater won’t soaking in, leaving wells and aquifers with little recovery until the spring thaw Steady, light-rain events with high absorption rates are ideal Around 6” of above normal or extra rainfall is needed to see full recovery Ground frost in ME and NH can start as early as mid November in the North and higher elevations, and mid to late December in southern areas on average, with long cold snaps often necessary to make depths over 4” 9-13” for Maine and New Hampshire Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Persisting: Climate prediction center drought outlooks favor drought persistence through January It is likely that precipitation will fall short of eliminating drought conditions prior to the winter freeze The region is likely to maintain some state of drought through winter Required Winter Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Persisting: Climate prediction center is predicting an emerging La Nina to influence the upcoming winter patterns This leads to a split storm track over New England Past La Nina years have resulted in: Both above and below normal precipitation and snowpacks Often wild temperature swings, though often winters averaged near normal Other global indicators suggest some similarities between this year and 2017-2018 Active year for nor’easters Large temperature swings Required Monthly Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Summarize conditions/impacts here Long-Range Outlook The Climate Prediction Center outlook for Fall (OND) indicates strong signals favoring above normal temperatures but does not show any strong climate signals for precipitation. Conditions are similar to last fall. October through December Fire Hazard Impacts High Fire Danger in NH and Moderate Danger in ME as recent rainfall slightly improved conditions Windy and dry conditions through the weekend could increase the fire danger Some precipitation is looking likely on Monday and Tuesday, particularly near the coast Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Image Captions: NIFC September Significant Fire Potential Outlook Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Groundwater Impacts New dry wells are reported across both Maine and New Hampshire as groundwater levels decline despite slight rebounds from recent rains. Click on your respective state for a link to report a dry well The Drinking Water Program strongly discourages homeowners from introducing water into their wells for 3 reasons: It’s illegal unless specifically allowed in the statute. The well is dry because the water table is below the well screen. Any introduced water will dissipate out into the aquifer. The delivered water may contaminate the aquifer with bacteria or other potential pathogens. For example, once iron bacteria is introduced into a well, it’s difficult (if not impossible) to remove, clogs the well screen, and turns the water reddish-brown. New Hampshire Dry Well Survey Maine Dry Well Survey Required Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Most smaller, unregulated rivers and streams have responded to recent heavy rainfall with near normal streamflow, though they are expected to recede to below normal to much below normal flows without additional rainfall in the coming days Small to medium sized reservoirs remain below long term averages with some at daily record low levels Other Impacts Water management, agricultural, fisheries, and forestry impacts have been reported. Reach out to the various representatives from those sectors for more information regarding specific impacts. Mitigation actions ● Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information Have a drought impact to report? go.unl.edu/cmor_drought Required Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Summarize conditions and impacts here Main Takeaways Widespread Moderate to Extreme Drought holds across Maine and New Hampshire, with 100% of each state experiencing D1-D3 drought conditions Surface water improvements have been widespread from late October into early November, though groundwater deficits persists Soil moisture and streamflow improvements were due to late October rains and reduced water withdrawals from vegetation at the end of the growing season. These are a prime indicator of improving drought conditions, as it allows more water to reach the aquifers. In total, 9-13” of liquid precipitation is needed before the freeze. This is roughly 125-150% of normal for November and December The severity of the drought suggests some degree of long-term drought conditions are likely to persist into the 2025-26 winter Upcoming active weather pattern with widespread precipitation are likely to bring incremental relief with improvements likely with next week’s USDM Required Past ME & NH Droughts The periods of statewide hydrologic drought that were most severe were 1947-50 and 1999-2002. The current drought is the worst drought observed in the White Mountains region since 2001 Past D3 Events in Maine: Dec 2001-Mar 2002 Central/East Sep 2020-Nov 2020 NE NW SW Past D3 Events in New Hampshire: Sep 2020-Dec 2020 SE Aug 2022 S NH Note: USDM was developed in 1999 Resources on Past Maine Drought: USGS Drought Conditions Maine 1999-2002 Gray-Portland, ME National Weather Service 1:07 PM Contact Information Briefing Webpage www.weather.gov/gyx/EMhome https://www.weather.gov/gyx/drought Disclaimer Information contained in this briefing is time-sensitive Do Not Use After: November 14, 2025 ! Contact Information Web www.weather.gov/gyx Phone (public) (207) 688-3216 Email gyx.skywarn@noaa.gov sarah.jamison@noaa.gov Facebook NWSGray Twitter @NWSGray Mandatory! Update the next briefing information. If this is the last briefing, replace the first bullet with “This is the last update unless conditions warrant.” and delete the “Method” bullet. 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