Drought Information Statement for New Hampshire and Western Maine November Issued By: NWS Gray Maine Contact Information: gyx.skywarn@noaa.gov Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Fall precipitation was down 6 to 10 inches, which is 30% to 50% of normal. Required Slide https://docs.google.com/document/d/1vZogJDIrCFtbid42QlRJO3fyxHQhjVLUU3c0HHHlKGU/edit Directions for Brief 1 U.S. Drought Monitor U.S. Drought Monitor for the Northeast Drought intensity and Extent D2 (Severe Drought): Southern Cheshire, Hillsborough, Rockingham, and York Counties D1 (Moderate Drought): Sullivan, Merrimack, Belknap, Strafford, Cumberland, Androscoggin, Kennebec, Lincoln, Sagadahoc, and Knox Counties, including southern portions of Grafton, Carroll, Oxford, Franklin, and Somerset Counties. D0: (Abnormally Dry): Northern portions of Grafton, Carroll, Oxford, Franklin, and Somerset Counties. Required Recent Change in Drought Intensity 4-week change map for New England Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: Across most of New Hampshire and western Maine Precipitation Drier than normal conditions started in September and continued into late November Most of the region only observed a months worth of rainfall for the entire Fall season Precipitation was 2 standard deviations below normal Fall Precipitation Ending Nov 21 2024 Drought Task Force Holder Precipitation Deficits of 6-10” were observed in the Fall One of the top 5 driest falls on record ADD 90 Day% Normal https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-90-day-precipitation_-percent-of-prism-normal-new-england.png Seasonal Precipitation * Summer Precipitation Departures Jun-Aug Spring Precipitation Departures Mar-May Drought Task Force Holder Monthly Precipitation* Monthly Precipitation September Monthly Precipitation October Monthly Precipitation November *Thru 11/20 Drought Task Force Holder Precipitation Anomalies* Most locations observed deficits of 6-10” below normal 25-50% of Normal Coinciding with temperature anomalies of 2-5 degrees above normal Fall Precipitation Anomalies Sep 1 - Nov 20 2024 Fall Precipitation % of Normal Sep 1 - Nov 20 2024 Drought Task Force Holder Anomalies Temperature Above normal temperatures coincided with dry-period, increasing evaporation and accelerating drought LEGEND CUT OFF Resource provided for updating photos not available in northeast Climate Station November (thru Nov 20) October September Fall (Sep 1- Nov 20) Year to Date Precipitation and Departure (Inches) Driest Ranking Precipitation and Departure (Inches) Driest Ranking Precipitation and Departure (Inches) Driest Ranking Precipitation and Departure (Inches) Driest Ranking Total (Inches) Driest Ranking Caribou Period 1939-Today 1.17 -0.90 1.48 -2.51 9th 0.93 -2.51 2nd 3.58 -5.9 1st 29.71 -6.00 Houlton Period 1939-Today 1.43 -0.90 1.65 -2.39 10th 0.99 -2.41 4th 4.07 -5.70 1st 25.87 -8.80 4th Millinocket Period 1944-Today 0.40 -2.00 3rd 1.25 -3.30 7th 0.94 -2.67 4th 2.59 -8.00 2nd 29.10 -8.40 9th Bangor Period 1925-Today 0.14 -2.20 1st 1.32 -3.26 10th 1.33 -2.43 13th 2.79 -7.80 1st 34.21 -2.20 Augusta Period 1948-Today 0.06 -2.30 1st 1.65 -3.04 7th 1.57 -2.33 15th 3.28 -7.70 1st 30.43 -6.40 13th Portland Period 1871-Today 0.12 -2.40 2nd 1.68 -3.57 1.93 -1.87 3.73 -7.80 3rd 38.07 -3.90 Drought Task Force Holder Longer-Term Precipitation Anomalies* Drought conditions lagged behind fall rainfall deficits due to predecessor wet conditions 90 Day Standard Precipitation Index New Hampshire The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) measures water supply, specifically precipitation. SPI captures how observed precipitation (rain, hail, snow) deviates from the climatological average over a given time period—in this case, over the 9 months leading up to the selected date. 90 Day Standard Precipitation Index Maine Antecedent wet conditions starting in 2023 Drought Task Force Holder Historical Drought Stripes | Climate Toolbox https://www.drought.gov/historical-information?dataset=1&selectedDateUSDM=20241119&selectedDateSpi=20240901&state=Maine Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Drought conditions have reduced rivers to near record low levels for November based on USGS streamflow stations Image 1 (left): USGS Streamflow: Low Flow Low flows are based on the percentile of existing streamflow records on this day of the year. Image 2(right): USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid November 21 2024 USGS Streamflow: Low Flow Nov 22, 2024 Agricultural Impacts Though the agricultural growing season has passed, limited soil moisture can put stress on forests Groundwater Impacts Location: Merrimack County, New Hampshire Location: Oxford County, Maine Several groundwater monitoring wells are the lowest they’ve been in November for the period of record (30-40 years) Source: USGS Groundwater Wells Steady decline since spring Drought Task Force Holder Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Climate prediction center drought outlooks favor little change in conditions through the winter season Drought is favored to persist, particularly across southern areas Note: Once the ground freezes groundwater conditions show little change until the spring thaw. Required Broad area of low pressure to dominate most of the country next week into next weekend, bringing colder temperatures. Increasingly active pattern to be monitored for snow potential. Big Change on the Way 8-14 Day Forecast Drought Task Force Holder Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Below normal to all time low streamflows and groundwater levels for this date in November based on USGS gages Agricultural Impacts Though the agricultural growing season has passed, limited soil moisture can put stress on forests Fire Hazard Impacts The total count of wildfires was slightly above average Other Impacts Dry wells can occur during periods of drought. Report dry wells in Maine to the Dry Well Dashboard Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Required Fire Hazard Impacts Summarize conditions/impacts here Latest TX Burn Ban map available here. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Summarize conditions here Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Summarize conditions and impacts here Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Summarize conditions/impacts here La Nina Outlooks* Snowfall During Weak La Nina Winters Recent analysis of data from 1959-2024 show weak La Nina events favor above normal snowfall for the southern portion of the state and slightly lower than normal snowfall for the northern half CAUTION: A weak La Nina does not give high confidence in seasonal snowfall forecast across Maine Drought Task Force Holder Main Takeaways Fall 2024 was one of the driest falls on record with deficits of 6-10” as of Nov 20 Preceding wet conditions over the last year slowed the onset of drought impacts despite the rapid drying Drought conditions will likely still be present when the ground freezes despite late November rain Winter Outlooks influenced by a weak La Nina, suggest above normal temperatures and precipitation Bottom line: A weak La Nina does not give high confidence in seasonal snowfall forecast across Maine Contact Information Web www.weather.gov/gyx www.weather.gov/car Questions? Email gyx.skywarn@noaa.gov sarah.jamison@noaa.gov Louise.fode@noaa.gov Donald.dumont@noaa.gov Required Gray-Portland, ME National Weather Service 12:39 PM Contact Information Briefing Webpage www.weather.gov/gyx/EMhome https://www.weather.gov/gyx/drought Disclaimer Information contained in this briefing is time-sensitive Do Not Use After: December 21, 2024 ! Contact Information Web www.weather.gov/gyx Phone (public) (207) 688-3216 Email gyx.skywarn@noaa.gov sarah.jamison@noaa.gov Facebook NWSGray Twitter @NWSGray Mandatory! Update the next briefing information. If this is the last briefing, replace the first bullet with “This is the last update unless conditions warrant.” and delete the “Method” bullet. The Disclaimer date and time should be approximately 12 hours from the current briefing or less.