Drought Information Statement for New Hampshire and Western Maine December 4, 2025 Issued By: NWS Gray Maine Contact Information: gyx.skywarn@noaa.gov Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Maine and New Hampshire’s drought is likely to persists over the winter with frozen soils hurting recovery NOTE: Due to the change in season the Drought Information Statements will only be updated once a month unless significant changes occur. Weekly updates to the US Drought Monitor can be found at droughtmonitor.unl.edu Required Slide https://docs.google.com/document/d/1vZogJDIrCFtbid42QlRJO3fyxHQhjVLUU3c0HHHlKGU/edit Directions for Brief 1 U.S. Drought Monitor U.S. Drought Monitor for the Northeast Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): 0% of New Hampshire 3% of Maine D2 (Severe Drought): 64% of New Hampshire 57% of Maine D1 (Moderate Drought): 14% of New Hampshire 40% of Maine D0 (Abnormally Dry): 22% of New Hampshire Required 2025 US Drought Monitor Drought “PEAK” 92% ME & 83% NH D2 or D3 2025 US Drought Monitor Continued Precipitation- 30 Day Precipitation totals remain below normal for much of the region, apart from upslope portions of the White Mountains and areas northward to the international boundary in NH. Drought Task Force Holder Precipitation Deficits 30 Days 90 Days Since June 1 Ending December 3 Drought Task Force Holder Precipitation Deficits- Regional View Maps of Departures from Normal by County Local Departures 0-2” Local Departures 1-6” Local Departures 2-5” Drought Task Force Holder Snowpack A widespread snow storm on December 2 brought measurable snowfall to the entire region. Note: While accumulating snow is often a positive sign for areas experiencing drought, the stored water, measured as Snow Water Equivalent (SWE), does not provide an immediate benefit for drought recovery until it actually melts and begins to enter the wider water system. NOAA’s National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center Modeled Snow Depth Link: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/ Drought Task Force Holder Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts A lack of appreciable precipitation and runoff from snowmelt has led to a recession in streamflows for much of the region since mid-November Note: Many regulated lakes have recently undergone or are undergoing seasonal drawdowns, which temporarily increase flows Image 1 (left): USGS 7-Day Streamflow based on the percentile of existing streamflow records on this day of the year. Image 2 (right): USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map. USGS Streamgage Information USGS Monthly Streamflows USGS Streamgage Basin Average Streamflows Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Image 1 (Left): USGS 7-Day Streamflow Runoff Duration Hydrograph for Maine based on the percentile of existing streamflow records on this day of the year. USGS Streamgage Information Image 2 (Right): USGS 7 day Runoff Duration Hydrograph for New Hampshire based on the percentile of existing streamflow records on this day of the year. Soil Moisture Deeper soil moisture percentiles remain well below climatological normals, confirming that severe and extreme drought conditions remain Cold temperatures have frozen some topsoils, but deeper frost depths have yet to develop Satellite Based This map shows the moisture content of the top 1 meter of soil compared to historical conditions from 1981–2013, based on NASA's Short-term Prediction and Transition Center – Land Information System (SPoRT-LIS). https://www.drought.gov/watersheds/New-England Soil Moisture Satellite Based Image: NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-10 cm percentiles soil moisture (top soils) Image: NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-200 cm soil moisture percentiles (0-6ft) Surface topsoil (left) moisture levels have rebounded due to reduced vegetation demand, but deeper soil moisture deficits (right) remain https://www.drought.gov/watersheds/New-England Groundwater Levels- New Hampshire Several groundwater monitoring wells are Below to Much Below Normal per NH Groundwater monitoring dashboard (https://nhdes.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/6b333fa640994c17a31993a9e5298043) and the USGS Groundwater Levels Groundwater levels have shown a seasonal “bounce” with some improvements across the state. Overall aquifers remain below normal to much below normal for the majority of the wells. Drought Task Force Holder Groundwater Impacts Above is a real-time well observation from a USGS groundwater well in Oxford Maine with a period of record from 1980. Note: Lowest approved groundwater level: 10.77 feet on 2002-02-10 USGS Groundwater Levels (https://newengland.water.usgs.gov/web_app/GWW/GWW.html) in New England dashboard. Drought Task Force Holder Rainfall needed to “end the drought” 200-250% of normal precipitation over the next month is needed to ameliorate drought conditions before the ground freezes 7-12” for Maine and New Hampshire 8-14 Day Outlooks 40-50% chance of below normal temperatures through mid December Precipitation chances are near normal Drought Task Force Holder Winter Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Persisting: Climate prediction center is predicting an emerging La Nina to influence the upcoming winter patterns with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely in January-March 2026 This leads to a split storm track over New England and frequent but brief intrusions of Arctic air, and an active storm track through the Ohio Valley Past La Nina years have resulted in: Both above and below normal precipitation and snowpacks Often wild temperature swings, though often winters averaged near normal Other global indicators suggest some similarities between this year and 2017-2018 Active year for nor’easters Large temperature swings Required Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Winter Hydrologic Impacts With well drillers in high demand and soils freezing soon, a primary concern is that some households may not have any water going into winter. State agencies advised against drinking water from roadside springs as an alternate source, which can be hazardous to public health. The availability of adequate winter feed for livestock due to poor summer pasture conditions and low hay yields is still a concern. The impact of the summer and fall drought on fruit trees and berries may linger into the next growing season. Dry ground may also impact field preparations next year. Other Impacts Water management, agricultural, fisheries, and forestry impacts have been reported. Reach out to the various representatives from those sectors for more information regarding specific impacts. Mitigation actions ● Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information go.unl.edu/cmor_drought Have a drought impact to report? Required Summary of Impacts Groundwater Impacts New dry wells are reported across both Maine and New Hampshire as groundwater levels decline despite slight rebounds from recent rains. Click on your respective state for a link to report a dry well People should continue the habits they picked up during the recent summer drought, such as: Taking shorter showers Limiting car washes It also suggests waiting until loads are full before using laundry machines and dishwashers, turning off the faucet when brushing your teeth and installing low-flow faucets. New Hampshire Dry Well Survey Maine Dry Well Survey Maine Dry Well Dashboard screen capture taken December 1, 2025 depicting 534 dry well reports distributed across the state, a jump of over 2 dozen since the beginning of November. Required Winter Drought Considerations Overview: Maine and New Hampshire’s drought is likely to persists over the winter with frozen soils hurting recovery. Recharging soil moisture before freeze-up is critical so it can be locked-in and saved for spring There is some potential for rainfall as an active pattern through mid December favors mixed precipitation events tracking into the region If the snowpack in December remains or grows, it can act as an insulator, limiting deeper frost depths Once the ground freezes, water infiltration becomes difficult regardless of winter rainfall or snowmelt Winter is the driest time of the year since cold air cannot hold as much moisture as warm air Monthly precipitation averages drop below 3 inches for both January and February Looking ahead to Spring: A snowpack through winter is crucial to act as a natural water reservoir, as spring snowmelt helps recharge soil and aquifers. Below-normal snowfall could extend the drought and impact agriculture in 2026. The timing and rate of snowmelt will be vital to sustaining base flow in rivers and lakes the next warm season Even an active flood season can be insufficient to fully recharge aquifers in severe drought conditions Main Takeaways Widespread Moderate to Severe Drought continues across Maine and New Hampshire, due primarily to significant groundwater deficits Recent precipitation events and limited vegetation demands have improved soil moisture, but it's insufficient for water to seep several feet down into well systems In total, 7-12” of liquid precipitation is needed before deep ground frost develops to alleviate the drought, roughly 200-250% of normal for the remainder of December Alleviating drought conditions during the winter months is challenging due to less precipitation and frozen ground conditions Residents are encouraged to conserve water this winter as the colder months will make it even more difficult for wells to be replenished The Climate Prediction Center says La Niña is favored to continue into the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely in January-March 2026 Analog years point to a volatile pattern with periods of wild temperature swings and an active storm track The outcome of December’s rainfall and the upcoming snowfall this winter will be key to mitigating the long-term impacts of this drought Required Gray-Portland, ME National Weather Service 10:27 AM Contact Information Briefing Webpage www.weather.gov/gyx/EMhome https://www.weather.gov/gyx/drought Disclaimer Updates to the Drought Information Statement will be made monthly unless significant changes necessitate more frequent updates. Weekly updates to the US Drought Monitor can be found at droughtmonitor.unl.edu Drought conditions are less variable in the winter season due to dormant vegetation and frozen ground conditions. ! Contact Information Web www.weather.gov/gyx Phone (public) (207) 688-3216 Email gyx.skywarn@noaa.gov sarah.jamison@noaa.gov Facebook NWSGray Twitter @NWSGray Mandatory! Update the next briefing information. If this is the last briefing, replace the first bullet with “This is the last update unless conditions warrant.” and delete the “Method” bullet. The Disclaimer date and time should be approximately 12 hours from the current briefing or less. Recent Change in Drought Intensity 4 week change map for New England 4 Week Drought Monitor Class Change D3 Expansion northward in Maine and in New Hampshire Generally 1 class degradation from central Maine northward from D0 to D2 2 week Data Tables Recent Change in Drought Intensity 1 week change map for New England The area saw modest reductions in Severe Drought (D2) across Eastern ME and Presidential Mountains in New Hampshire U.S. Drought Monitor Weekly Maps Recent Precipitation Much of the precipitation in northern counties fell as snowfall, with upslope favoring higher accumulations. From the foothills southward precipitation was more sparse, and a mix of frozen and liquid throughout the month. Note: November is often one of the wettest months of the year, and averages close to 5 inches regionally for the month Month-to-Date Precipitation Ending November 25 2025 Month-to-Date Precipitation % of Normal Ending November 25 2025 Drought Task Force Holder Temperature Anomalies 30 Day temperature anomalies registered near to slightly below normal for the first time since the onset of the drought. 90 Day temperature anomalies still indicate above normal temperatures across both Maine and New Hampshire. The above normal temperatures were the main drivers for excessive evaporation, a primary driver for the drought. LEGEND CUT OFF Resource provided for updating photos not available in northeast Precipitation % of Normal Precipitation anomalies were near normal for the White Mountains Region and parts of the Foothills of the Western Maine Mountains, but generally below normal for the rest of the region through early November The last 90 days have been around 50% of normal or less ADD 90 Day% Normal https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-90-day-precipitation_-percent-of-prism-normal-new-england.png Short Term Drought Index The Short-Term Multi-Indicator Drought Index (MIDI) estimates current short-term drought conditions by combining several indicators of drought into a single, map from changes in precipitation and moisture over the past 3 months. Short term drought conditions indicate significant improvements relative to early Fall. This experimental map is based on methodology from the NOAA National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center. LEGEND CUT OFF Resource provided for updating photos not available in northeast Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) Evaporation Evaporation rates dropped off due to the seasonal transition. Cumulative EDDI over the last few months were a primary catalyst in the 2025 drought. Looking at rainfall deficits alone does not quantify the drought magnitude if the evaporative losses aren’t included. LEGEND CUT OFF Resource provided for updating photos not available in northeast Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) Evaporation-National View LEGEND CUT OFF Resource provided for updating photos not available in northeast Satellite Based Estimated Relative Humidity Anomalies Evaporation Satellite data from AIRS used to estimate CONUS relative humidity anomalies over the last 56 days The final integrated AIRS data often, but not always, follows these drought regimes: D0: Abnormally dry (yellow) D1: Moderate drought (tan) D2: Severe drought (orange) D3: Extreme drought (red) D4: Exceptional drought (brown) Anomaly plot of 56-day-averaged CONUS Surface Relative Humidity for 56 days ending Oct 21, 2025 source Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) onboard NASA’s Aqua satellite (Left) NWM Soil Moisture Map indicating the moisture content of 4-16 inches of soil compared to historical conditions based on NOAA’s National Water Model. Soil Moisture (Right) NWM Soil Moisture Map indicating the moisture content of the 40-79 inches of soil compared to historical conditions based on NOAA’s National Water Model. National Water Model Soil Moisture Estimates National Current Conditions | Drought.gov Soil Moisture Satellite Based Image: Peak soil moisture depletion around Oct 20 2025 based on analysis of NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-200 cm percentiles Image: NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-200 cm soil moisture percentiles at the beginning of August, September, October, and November of 2025 https://www.drought.gov/watersheds/New-England 6-10 Day Outlooks High confidence for below normal temperatures through mid December Near normal precipitation Drought Task Force Holder Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Persisting: Climate prediction center drought outlooks favor drought persistence through January It is likely that precipitation will fall short of eliminating drought conditions prior to the winter freeze The region is likely to maintain some state of drought through winter Required Monthly Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Summarize conditions/impacts here Long-Range Outlook The Climate Prediction Center outlook for Fall (OND) indicates strong signals favoring above normal temperatures but does not show any strong climate signals for precipitation. Conditions are similar to last fall. October through December Fire Hazard Impacts High Fire Danger in NH and Moderate Danger in ME as recent rainfall slightly improved conditions Windy and dry conditions through the weekend could increase the fire danger Some precipitation is looking likely on Monday and Tuesday, particularly near the coast Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Image Captions: NIFC September Significant Fire Potential Outlook Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Summarize conditions and impacts here Past ME & NH Droughts The periods of statewide hydrologic drought that were most severe were 1947-50 and 1999-2002. The current drought is the worst drought observed in the White Mountains region since 2001 Past D3 Events in Maine: Dec 2001-Mar 2002 Central/East Sep 2020-Nov 2020 NE NW SW Past D3 Events in New Hampshire: Sep 2020-Dec 2020 SE Aug 2022 S NH Note: USDM was developed in 1999 Resources on Past Maine Drought: USGS Drought Conditions Maine 1999-2002