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000
FNUS54 KMRX 221529 AAA
FWFMRX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for East Tennessee...UPDATED
Virginia...and Extreme Southwest North Carolina
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1029 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure begins to settle across the region today
bringing dry conditions through Friday and a gradual warming trend
toward the end of the week.



VAZ001-002-005-006-008-231630-
Jefferson National Forest/Virginia District 6-
1029 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Thu

Cloud cover           PCldy        MClear       MClear
Temp (24h trend)      46-51 (-11)  24-29 (-9)   48-53
RH % (24h trend)      35-40 (-7)   84-89 (-6)   27-32
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     N  8 G18                  LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     N  7 G16     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
Precip type           NONE         NONE         NONE
Chance precip (%)     0            0            0
Precip duration
Precip begin
Precip end
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI/Haines           4                         5
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    4800                      4600
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   2700                      2600
Transport wnd (mph)   N 14                      W  8
Dispersion            33 Fair                   18 Gen poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)     N 10 G18                  LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     N  8 G16     NE  5        LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 30s. South winds less
than 10 mph in the evening becoming light.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. South winds less
than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 40s to upper 50s.
Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Colder. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the
30s to upper 40s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s to
mid 50s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 50s
to lower 60s. South winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-231630-
Northern Cherokee National Forest-
1029 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Thu

Cloud cover           PCldy        MClear       MClear
Temp (24h trend)      47-52 (-6)   25-30 (-9)   48-53
RH % (24h trend)      37-42 (-11)  80-85 (-16)  32-37
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     NW  9 G25                 LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     NW  8 G23    LGT/VAR      W  5
Precip type           NONE         NONE         NONE
Chance precip (%)     0            0            0
Precip duration
Precip begin
Precip end
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI/Haines           5                         5
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    5200                      5400
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   2400                      2600
Transport wnd (mph)   NW 16                     W 10
Dispersion            33 Fair                   23 Fair
33ft wind-AM(mph)     NW 11 G25                 SW  5
33ft wind-PM(mph)     NW 10 G23    N  5         W  6

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Southwest winds
less than 10 mph in the evening becoming light.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 60s. Southeast
winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid to upper 30s.
Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 60s.
Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Colder. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in
the 30s to upper 40s. North winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s to mid
50s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the
upper 40s to lower 60s. South winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ072-074-231630-
Tennessee Portion Of The Great Smoky Mountain National Park-
1029 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Thu

Cloud cover           MClear       MClear       MClear
Temp (24h trend)      48-53 (-7)   28-33 (-6)   48-53
RH % (24h trend)      32-37 (-16)  92-97 (-2)   39-44
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     N  7 G22                  LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     N  7 G21     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
Precip type           NONE         NONE         NONE
Chance precip (%)     0            0            0
Precip duration
Precip begin
Precip end
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI/Haines           5                         5
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    5200                      5400
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   2100                      2400
Transport wnd (mph)   N 13                      W  8
Dispersion            22 Fair                   15 Gen poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)     N  9 G22                  W  5
33ft wind-PM(mph)     N  9 G21     NE  5        W  5

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Light winds.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 60s. South winds
less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 60s.
Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the upper
30s to lower 50s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the mid 40s to
upper 50s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 50s
to lower 60s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ087-102-231630-
Southern Cherokee National Forest-
1029 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Thu

Cloud cover           MClear       MClear       MClear
Temp (24h trend)      51-56 (-6)   29-34 (-6)   52-57
RH % (24h trend)      34-39 (-18)  87-92 (-5)   41-46
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     N  8 G23                  LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     N  8 G23     NE  5        LGT/VAR
Precip type           NONE         NONE         NONE
Chance precip (%)     0            0            0
Precip duration
Precip begin
Precip end
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI/Haines           4                         5
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    4500                      4900
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   2500                      2900
Transport wnd (mph)   N 15                      W  5
Dispersion            32 Fair                   11 Poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)     N 11 G23                  LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     N 11 G23     NE  6        NW  5

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Light winds.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Southeast winds
less than 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows near 40. South winds less than
10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 60s.
Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Clear. Lows around 30. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s.
Northeast winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s to upper
50s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the 50s
to lower 60s. South winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

NCZ060-061-231630-
Nantahala National Forest-
1029 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Thu

CLOUD COVER           MClear       MClear       MClear
TEMP (24H TREND)      54-59 (-6)   29-34 (-7)   53-58
RH % (24H TREND)      34-39 (-19)  89-94 (-6)   37-42
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     N  8 G23                  LGT/VAR
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     N  7 G23     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0
PRECIP DURATION
PRECIP BEGIN
PRECIP END
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI/Haines           5                         4
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5300                      5400
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL)*   3000                      3200
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   N 13                      W  5
DISPERSION            33 Fair                   12 Poor
MAX LVORI             3                         5
33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     N 10 G23                  LGT/VAR
33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     N  9 G23     NE  5        LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Light winds.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Southeast winds
less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
South winds less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the 40s to lower
50s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the upper 40s to
lower 60s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 40. Highs in the 50s to
lower 60s. South winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-231630-
East Tennessee District East-
1029 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Thu

Cloud cover           PCldy        MClear       MClear
Temp (24h trend)      50-55 (-5)   24-29 (-10)  50-55
RH % (24h trend)      37-42 (-9)   86-91 (-8)   32-37
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     NW  6 G18                 LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     N  6 G18     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
Precip type           NONE         NONE         NONE
Chance precip (%)     0            0            0
Precip duration
Precip begin
Precip end
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI/Haines           4                         5
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    4400                      4100
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   2900                      2600
Transport wnd (mph)   N 10                      W  8
Dispersion            26 Fair                   18 Gen poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)     NW  8 G18                 LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     N  7 G18     LGT/VAR      SW  5

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Light
winds.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Southeast winds
less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. South
winds less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 60s.
Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Colder. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in
the 30s to upper 40s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s to upper
50s. Light winds.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 40. Highs in the 50s to
lower 60s. South winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-231630-
East Tennessee District West-
1029 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

                      Today        Tonight      Thu

Cloud cover           MClear       MClear       MClear
Temp (24h trend)      50-55 (-6)   27-32 (-7)   51-56
RH % (24h trend)      33-38 (-17)  83-88 (-8)   34-39
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     N  7 G18                  LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     N  7 G18     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
Precip type           NONE         NONE         NONE
Chance precip (%)     0            0            0
Precip duration
Precip begin
Precip end
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI/Haines           4                         5
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    3800                      3800
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   2600                      2500
Transport wnd (mph)   N 14                      W  6
Dispersion            29 Fair                   12 Poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)     N  8 G18                  LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     N  9 G18     NE  5        LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the 20s to upper 30s. Light
winds.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. East winds less
than 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows near 40. Southwest winds less
than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Cooler. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in
the 40s to lower 50s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s to upper
50s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the 50s
to lower 60s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ077-079>085-097>101-231630-
Cumberland District South-
1029 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 /929 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017/

                      Today        Tonight      Thu

Cloud cover           MClear       MClear       MClear
Temp (24h trend)      52-57 (-4)   29-34 (-5)   52-57
RH % (24h trend)      33-38 (-22)  79-84 (-12)  40-45
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     N  8 G22                  LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     N  8 G20     N  6         LGT/VAR
Precip type           NONE         NONE         NONE
Chance precip (%)     0            0            0
Precip duration
Precip begin
Precip end
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI/Haines           4                         5
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    3500                      3800
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   2400                      2600
Transport wnd (mph)   N 16                      W  3
Dispersion            34 Fair                   9 Poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)     N 10 G22                  LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     N 10 G20     N  7         LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the 30s. Light winds.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Northeast
winds less than 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows near 40. Southwest winds less
than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Highs in the 50s to mid 60s. North
winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the 40s
to mid 50s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 50s to lower
60s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid
50s to lower 60s. South winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Day 1 Forecast Precipitation Day 2 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Day 3 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation

 

Products
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  MADIS Meteorological Surface Observation Viewer            Keetch-Byram Drought Index Map of the U.S.

 

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