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These products and outlook graphics can be used to support the fire weather program across east Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and southwest North Carolina. For more information, please call the NWS Morristown, Tennessee.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

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376
FNUS54 KMRX 240805
FWFMRX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for East Tennessee...Southwest
Virginia...and Extreme Southwest North Carolina
National Weather Service Morristown TN
305 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Gradually clearing skies, and temperatures below seasonal normals
can be expected for today. A warming trend will begin on Thursday
and continue into the weekend. No precipitation is expected until
the upcoming weekend.

VAZ001-002-005-006-008-250915-
Jefferson National Forest/Virginia District 6-
305 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Thu

Cloud cover           MCldy        PCldy        MClear
Temp (24h trend)      36-41 (-8)   20-25 (-5)   42-47
RH % (24h trend)      45-50 (-6)   88-93 (+6)   33-38
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     W  7 G16                  LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     W  9 G22     W  6 G19     SW  5
Precip type           NONE         NONE         NONE
Chance precip (%)     0            0            0
Precip duration
Precip begin
Precip end
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI/Haines           3                         5
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    5400                      3100
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   3400                      1100
Transport wnd (mph)   W 13                      W  6
Dispersion            36 Fair                   5 Very poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)     W  8 G16                  LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     W 12 G22     W  8 G19     SW  6

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the 20s to lower 30s. South
winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. South winds up to
10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the 30s. South winds up to
10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs in the 40s to
upper 50s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Showers likely. Lows around 30. Highs in the 40s to mid
50s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Colder. Lows
in the lower 20s. Highs in the lower 30s to mid 40s. Northwest
winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the 30s to
mid 40s. South winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-250915-
Northern Cherokee National Forest-
305 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Thu

Cloud cover           PCldy        PCldy        MClear
Temp (24h trend)      34-39 (-9)   18-23 (-5)   40-45
RH % (24h trend)      45-50 (-6)   84-89 (+8)   26-31
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     NW  9 G27                 NW  6 G19
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     W 11 G29     NW 11 G28    LGT/VAR
Precip type           flurries     NONE         NONE
Chance precip (%)     0            0            0
Precip duration
Precip begin
Precip end
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI/Haines           3                         5
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    5300                      3200
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   2500                      500
Transport wnd (mph)   W 16                      NW 10
Dispersion            31 Fair                   2 Very poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)     NW 11 G27                 NW  7 G19
33ft wind-PM(mph)     W 14 G29     NW 14 G28    W  5

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the 20s. South winds less than
10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 40s to upper 50s. South winds
up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the 20s to upper 30s. South
winds 5 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 40s to upper 50s.
South winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Showers likely and chance of snow showers. Lows in the
upper 20s. Highs in the 40s to lower 50s. Northwest winds up to
10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Chance of snow showers and slight chance
of showers. Lows in the lower 20s. Highs in the lower 30s to mid
40s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the mid
30s to upper 40s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ072-074-250915-
Tennessee Portion Of The Great Smoky Mountain National Park-
305 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Thu

Cloud cover           PCldy        PCldy        Clear
Temp (24h trend)      35-40 (-6)   19-24 (-3)   41-46
RH % (24h trend)      40-45 (-9)   88-93 (+10)  23-28
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     W  5 G16                  LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     W 10 G27     W  6 G20     LGT/VAR
Precip type           NONE         NONE         NONE
Chance precip (%)     0            0            0
Precip duration
Precip begin
Precip end
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI/Haines           4                         5
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    5300                      3700
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   2300                      700
Transport wnd (mph)   W 13                      NW  6
Dispersion            20 Gen poor               2 Very poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)     W  7 G16                  N  5 G15
33ft wind-PM(mph)     W 13 G27     W  8 G20     LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the 20s to lower 30s. South
winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. South winds 5 to
15 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s to upper 30s.
South winds 5 to 20 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 40s to upper 50s.
South winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Showers likely and chance of snow showers. Lows around
30. Highs in the lower 40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds up to
10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Chance of snow showers and slight chance
of showers. Lows in the lower 20s. Highs in the 30s to 40s. North
winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the
upper 30s to lower 50s. South winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ087-102-250915-
Southern Cherokee National Forest-
305 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Thu

Cloud cover           PCldy        MClear       Clear
Temp (24h trend)      40-45 (-5)   22-27 (-1)   46-51
RH % (24h trend)      39-44 (-7)   89-94 (+9)   27-32
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     NW  9 G23    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
Precip type           NONE         NONE         NONE
Chance precip (%)     0            0            0
Precip duration
Precip begin
Precip end
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI/Haines           4                         5
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    4900                      3400
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   2900                      1300
Transport wnd (mph)   NW 10                     N  5
Dispersion            25 Fair                   5 Very poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)     NW  6                     LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     NW 11 G23    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
Southeast winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. Southeast winds
5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s to lower 40s.
Southeast winds 5 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 40s to upper 50s.
South winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the 40s
to mid 50s. North winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the mid 30s
to lower 50s. North winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the 40s
to lower 50s. South winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

NCZ060-061-250915-
Nantahala National Forest-
305 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Thu

CLOUD COVER           MClear       MClear       Clear
TEMP (24H TREND)      42-47 (-3)   21-26 (-1)   47-52
RH % (24H TREND)      35-40 (-11)  95-100 (+18) 24-29
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     NW  5                     LGT/VAR
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW  9 G25    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0
PRECIP DURATION
PRECIP BEGIN
PRECIP END
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI/Haines           4                         5
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5200                      3800
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL)*   2900                      1500
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   NW 12                     N  6
DISPERSION            28 Fair                   7 Poor
MAX LVORI             4                         3
33FT WIND-AM(MPH)     NW  6                     LGT/VAR
33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     NW 12 G25    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the 20s. Southeast winds less
than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. Southeast winds
up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Southeast winds
5 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s.
Southeast winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the
upper 40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the upper
30s to lower 50s. North winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the 40s
to lower 50s. South winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-250915-
East Tennessee District East-
305 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Thu

Cloud cover           PCldy        PCldy        MClear
Temp (24h trend)      38-43 (-8)   21-26 (-5)   44-49
RH % (24h trend)      44-49 (-2)   85-90 (+9)   30-35
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     W  7 G17                  LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     W 10 G25     W  6 G19     LGT/VAR
Precip type           NONE         NONE         NONE
Chance precip (%)     0            0            0
Precip duration
Precip begin
Precip end
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI/Haines           3                         5
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    5000                      3000
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   3500                      1500
Transport wnd (mph)   W 13                      SW  5
Dispersion            37 Fair                   5 Very poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)     W  9 G17                  LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     W 13 G25     W  7 G19     LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the 20s to lower 30s. Southeast
winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. South winds less
than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the 20s to upper 30s.
Southeast winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s. South
winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the 40s
to mid 50s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the mid 30s
to upper 40s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the 30s to
upper 40s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-250915-
East Tennessee District West-
305 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Thu

Cloud cover           PCldy        MClear       Clear
Temp (24h trend)      40-45 (-4)   23-28 (-3)   46-51
RH % (24h trend)      39-44 (-7)   83-88 (+3)   31-36
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     W  5                      LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     W  8 G21     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
Precip type           NONE         NONE         NONE
Chance precip (%)     0            0            0
Precip duration
Precip begin
Precip end
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI/Haines           3                         5
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    4900                      3200
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   3600                      1900
Transport wnd (mph)   W  9                      W  2
Dispersion            30 Fair                   4 Very poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)     W  6                      LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     W 11 G21     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the 20s to mid 30s. Southeast
winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the 50s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s to lower 40s.
South winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the 50s. South winds less
than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the
upper 40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs in the upper
30s to lower 50s. North winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the 40s
to lower 50s. South winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ077-079>085-097>101-250915-
Cumberland District South-
305 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2018 /205 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2018/

                      Today        Tonight      Thu

Cloud cover           MClear       MClear       Clear
Temp (24h trend)      44-49 (-2)   26-31 (+1)   49-54
RH % (24h trend)      34-39 (-9)   83-88 (+2)   31-36
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     NW  5                     LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     NW  9 G24    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
Precip type           NONE         NONE         NONE
Chance precip (%)     0            0            0
Precip duration
Precip begin
Precip end
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1
LASI/Haines           4                         5
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    4400                      2700
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   3300                      1600
Transport wnd (mph)   NW 12                     NE  2
Dispersion            31 Fair                   4 Very poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)     NW  6                     LGT/VAR
33ft wind-PM(mph)     NW 11 G24    N  5 G15     LGT/VAR

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 20s to mid 30s. South
winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the 50s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
South winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the 50s. South winds less
than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the 40s
to upper 50s. North winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the 40s
to lower 50s. North winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the mid
40s to lower 50s. South winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$


Digital Tabular Forecast
Hourly Forecast

Minimum Potential Accumulation

Expect at least this much. This is what we see as the least amount of snow the storm can produce.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.
 

Most Likely Snow Accumulation

Represents our official snow forecast in inches within the next one to three days. The snowfall amounts are provided in point (single number) and ranges (1-2", 2-4", etc.). You can toggle between the two by hovering over the "Point" and "Range" text above the image. The point amount is our forecast but the range for the "most likely" represents the forecast uncertainty in predefined ranges.

Maximum Potential Accumulation

What you should be prepared for. This is what we see as the storm's maximum potential snowfall accumulation.

This information is for advance planning ahead of the storm. It is provided out as far as three days. However, when the snow starts to fall, this will be discontinued to focus on the forecast snow amount.

 

Short to Long-Range Forecast
 
Day 1 Forecast Precipitation Day 2 Forecast Precipitation
Days 1-2 Precip Days 1-3 Precip
   
Day 3 Forecast Precipitation Days 1-3 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature  Precipitation
6-10 day temperature 6-10 day precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE  PRECIPITATION
8-14 day temperature 8-14 day precipitation

 

Products
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST DISCUSSION SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

 

 

  Additional Forecasts and Outlooks

  Fire Weather Outlook Issued by the Storm Prediction Center

  National Fire Weather Page

  Forecast Fire Danger Rating

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  Local RAWS Sites Information                                             Observed Fire Danger Rating                                 Observed 10-hour Fuel Moisture

  Current Local Observations                                                  Palmer Drought Index Map of the U.S.                   Observed 100-hour Fuel Moisture                    

  Wildland Fire Assessment System                                       Haines Index Map of the U.S.                                 Observed 1000-hour Fuel Moisture

  MADIS Meteorological Surface Observation Viewer            Keetch-Byram Drought Index Map of the U.S.

 

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 Southern Area Coordination Center                                                                                                                      Tri-Cities

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