Effective April 30, 2009 at 1400 UTC – Nine Convective Outlook Hazard Probability Elements in the National Digital Forecast Database to be upgraded to operational status for the CONUS

Effective April 30, 2009 at 1400 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), the 9 Convective Outlook Hazard Probability elements (see Table 1) in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) will be upgraded from experimental to operational status.  These elements are available for the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) and for all 16 pre-defined NDFD CONUS subsectors.  These elements are not available for Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands; Hawaii; or Guam.   These forecasts are prepared by NWS’ Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK.  

Table 1.  Convective Outlook Hazard Probability Elements to be upgraded to operational status in NDFD on April 30, 2009 at 1400 UTC
Refer to TIN 09-14

NDFD Convective Outlook Hazard Probability Elements

Convective Hazard Outlook - Day 1, Day 2, Day 3

Probability Of Tornadoes - Day 1

Probability Of Hail - Day 1

Probability Of Damaging Thunderstorm Winds – Day 1

Probability Of Extreme Tornadoes - Day 1

Probability Of Extreme Hail - Day 1

Probability Of Extreme Thunderstorm Winds - Day 1

Total Probability Of Severe Thunderstorms - Day 2 And Day 3

Total Probability Of Extreme Severe Thunderstorms - Day 2 And 3

With this change to operational status, all of these elements will begin to be archived by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on the effective date. See the NDFD Access Data web page for information on accessing operational NDFD elements from NCDC's archive.   An updated Product Description Document (PDD) for the operational NDFD Convective Outlook Hazard Probability elements will be posted before the implementation date in the Catalog of Official NWS Products and Services.   As with all NDFD elements the Convective Outlook Hazard Probability elements will be accessible via several methods in various formats:

• Pull Gridded Binary (GRIB2) files via anonymous File Transfer Protocol (ftp) via the Internet
• NDFD eXtensible Markup Language (XML) via web service
• online graphical forecasts you can zoom in on

Partners and customers who access the Convective Outlook Hazard Probability elements via anonymous ftp may need to update their procedures and scripts. Detailed information for ftp users is included below. 

For customers who key on the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) super heading to access NDFD elements, click here for the list of super headings for the experimental Convective Outlook Hazard Probability elements.

Customers who use the NDFD in XML via web service, or the online graphical NDFD forecasts can use the same methods they currently use to acquire these new elements; this change will be transparent to those users.

Questions or feedback?  Please e-mail nws.ndfd@noaa.gov or complete a Customer Survey:
GRIB2 file users               NDFD XML               Graphics users

Other useful NDFD web pages:

• See the NDFD Access Data web page for information about NDFD elements and how to access them in real time or from the archive
• NDFD Element Status Table (status of all elements for all domains)
• NDFD-related Product Description Documents (PDDs) and Service Description Documents (SDDs)
• NDFD-related Technical Implementation Notices
• Information on GRIB2 format and a GRIB2 decoder
• The 16 predefined CONUS subsectors
• .gif images (Need to scroll down a bit to get the sector info)
• Flash application (rollover display)

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Instructions for ftp Users:

On April 30, 2009 at 1400 UTC, files for nine Convective Outlook Hazard Probability elements in GRIB2 format will be added to the NDFD experimental ftp subdirectories for the CONUS and the 16 pre-defined CONUS NDFD subsectors, as shown below.  The file names for the GRIB2 files within each subdirectory are shown in Table 2.
 
NOTE:  Since none of the nine Convective Outlook Hazard Probability elements extend beyond Day 3, these elements (files) will not be in the NDFD Days 4-7 ftp subdirectories for the CONUS or for the 16 pre-defined CONUS NDFD subsectors.

The National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) CONUS Mosaic:

On April 30, 2009 at 1400 UTC, nine Convective Outlook Hazard Probability elements (see Table 2 for the 9 filenames) will be added to the NDFD ftp subdirectory for operational elements for the CONUS:

ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/AR.conus/VP.001-003/

The 16 pre-defined NDFD CONUS subsectors:

On April 30, 2009 at 1400 UTC, nine Convective Outlook Hazard Probability elements (see Table 2 for the 9 filenames) will be added to the NDFD ftp subdirectories for operational elements for the 16 pre-defined NDFD CONUS subsectors:

Pacific Northwest subsector:
ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/AR.pacnwest/VP.001-003/

Pacific Southwest subsector:
ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/AR.pacswest/VP.001-003/

Northern Rockies subsector:
ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/AR.nrockies/VP.001-003/

Central Rockies subsector:
ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/AR.crrocks/VP.001-003/

Southern Rockies subsector:
ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/AR.srockies/VP.001-003/

Northern Plains subsector:
ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/AR.nplains/VP.001-003/

Central Plains subsector:
ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/AR.crplains/VP.001-003/

Southern Plains subsector:
ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/AR.splains/VP.001-003/

Upper Mississippi Valley subsector:
ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/AR.umissvly/VP.001-003/

Central Mississippi Valley subsector:
ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/AR.crmissvy/VP.001-003/

Southern Mississippi Valley subsector:
ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/AR.smissvly/VP.001-003/

Central Great Lakes subsector:
ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/AR.crgrlake/VP.001-003/

Eastern Great Lakes subsector:
ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/AR.ergrlake/VP.001-003/

North East subsector:
ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/AR.neast/VP.001-003/

South East subsector:
ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/AR.seast/VP.001-003/

Mid-Atlantic subsector:
ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/AR.midatlan/VP.001-003/

Table 2.  File names to access the 9 Convective Outlook Hazard Probability
elements from the ftp file server

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