DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 1100 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2008
...MODERATE DROUGHT LINGERS IN UNION COUNTY...
SYNOPSIS...
THE GRADUAL END OF THE SUMMER THUNDERSTORM SEASON AND SUBSEQUENT RETURN OF THE DRY WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT DURING SEPTEMBER RESULTED IN A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO. THE LAST TEN DAYS OF SEPTEMBER WERE GENERALLY PRECIPITATION FREE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.
AS WE MOVE FURTHER INTO AUTUMN...DROUGHT CONCERNS ARE MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
THE CURRENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP CAN BE FOUND AT... HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/DM_STATE.HTM?NM,W
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
MOISTURE FROM SUMMER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALLOWED ANY FIRE RELATED RESTRICTIONS TO BE LIFTED FROM ALL STATE AND FEDERAL RECREATIONAL LANDS.
THE NAVAJO NATION RETAINS FIRE RESTRICTIONS ON THE RESERVATION IN NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO WHERE CAMPFIRES ARE PERMITTED ONLY IN DEVELOPED RECREATION AREAS. SMOKING AND FIREWORKS ARE PROHIBITED. THE ZUNI PUEBLO ENTERED RESTRICTIONS ON MAY 11. MOST OF THE PUEBLOS IN NEW MEXICO REMAIN UNDER STAGE 1 FIRE RESTRICTIONS.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
SUMMER PRECIPITATION...JUNE THROUGH AUGUST...WAS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST...ABOVE NORMAL IN LINCOLN AND TORRANCE COUNTIES IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE... AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE FOUR CORNERS PART OF NEW MEXICO.
SUMMER PRECIPITATION AT THE NEW MEXICO STATE UNIVERSITY IN LAS CRUCES WAS 6.72 INCHES...155 PERCENT OF NORMAL...SIXTH HIGHEST SINCE 1892. AT WINSTON...NORTHWEST SIERRA COUNTY...SUMMER PRECIPITATION WAS 16.34 INCHES...A RECORD FOR THE MOST SUMMER PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST SIXTY YEARS.
EVEN IN THE NORTHERN NEW MEXICO HIGH COUNTRY THERE WERE ISOLATED SPOTS THAT RECEIVED ABUNDANT SUMMER RAINFALL. EAGLE NEST RECORDED 10.59 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION...THE THIRD HIGHEST SUMMER TOTAL SINCE 1937.
ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...NEW MEXICO STATEWIDE SUMMER PRECIPITATION...JUNE THROUGH AUGUST...WAS THE 17TH HIGHEST OF THE PAST 115 YEARS...WHILE JULY THROUGH AUGUST WAS THE 7TH WETTEST OF THE LAST 115 YEARS.
ON THE DRY END OF THE SCALE...FRUITLAND 2E IN SAN JUAN COUNTY RECEIVED ONLY AN INCH OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION...ABOUT HALF THEIR SUMMER NORMAL. LAKE MALOYA JUST NORTHEAST OF RATON NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER RECEIVED 5.61 INCHES OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION...BUT THAT WAS ONLY 60 PERCENT OF THEIR SUMMER NORMAL.
SOME NOTABLE SUMMER PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND RANKINGS...
TULAROSA 9.76 INCHES NEW SUMMER RECORD...WAS 8.79 IN 1988 WINSTON 16.34 INCHES NEW SUMMER RECORD...WAS 12.69 IN 2006 DEMING 8.68 INCHES MOST SINCE THE SUMMER OF 1986 T OR C 8.89 INCHES SECOND HIGHEST SUMMER TOTAL ON RECORD CLOUDCROFT 19.34 INCHES THIRD HIGHEST SUMMER TOTAL ON RECORD FORT BAYARD 12.47 INCHES THIRD HIGHEST SUMMER TOTAL ON RECORD RUIDOSO 15.95 INCHES FOURTH HIGHEST SUMMER TOTAL ON RECORD
THE NEAR UNIFORMLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS SPRING LEFT SEVERAL REGIONS WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION DEFICITS THROUGH THE FIRST SIX MONTHS OF THIS YEAR. DESPITE THE NEAR NORMAL TO ABUNDANT SUMMER RAINFALL IN MOST AREAS OF THE STATE...PARTS OF UNION COUNTY AND FAR NORTHEAST COLFAX COUNTY STILL REPORT MODERATE PRECIPITATION DEFICITS AS OF THE END OF AUGUST.
A FEW PRECIPITATION STATISTICS FOR SELECT LOCATIONS THROUGH THE FIRST 8 MONTHS OF 2008...
OBSERVED DEFICIT PERCENT OF NORMAL PASAMONTE 9.68 INCHES 2.57 INCHES 79 GRENVILLE 11.02 2.41 82 AMISTAD 5SSW 9.44 2.36 80 RATON FILTER 9.81 4.00 71
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...
THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF OCTOBER IS FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 4TH THROUGH THE 6TH WHEN A DEEP COOL TROUGH ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. DURING THIS PERIOD... CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE HIGHEST IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS COLORADO.
THE OCTOBER THROUGH DECEMBER OUTLOOK IS FOR NEAR NORMAL TO DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS NEW MEXICO.
LA NINA CONDITIONS...WHICH WERE PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MEAGER SPRING PRECIPITATION REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO... HAD FADED TO ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN REGIONS BY MID SUMMER. ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF 2008. LOOKING BEYOND THE END OF 2008 ...A HISTORICAL TENDENCY FOR MULTI-YEAR LA NINA EPISODES WOULD IMPLY THAT A RETURN TO WEAK LA NINA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE.
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO, PLEASE SEE THE NWS WFO ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE AT... HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABQ
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
RESERVOIR STORAGE IS ABOVE NORMAL AT ABIQUIU LAKE...EL VADO LAKE AND COSTILLA LAKE...WHILE WATER LEVELS WERE CLOSE TO. NORMAL AT EAGLE NEST LAKE...NAVAJO LAKE...AND HERON LAKE. WELL BELOW NORMAL STORAGE PERSISTS AT CONCHAS LAKE...ELEPHANT BUTTE LAKE...BLUEWATER LAKE...SANTA ROSA LAKE AND SUMNER LAKE.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ABOUT MID OCTOBER OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WEATHER... WATER SUPPLY...OR DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT OR PAST DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/
U.S DROUGHT MONITOR...
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
NWS PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS PAGE...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/precip_analysis_new.php
PUBLIC LANDS INFORMATION CENTER...
http://publiclands.org/firenews/pressreleases/nm.php
CLIMATOLOGY AND PALEOCLIMATOLOGY LINKS...
http://www.drought.unl.edu/whatis/climlinks.htm
WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...
http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS...
http://ahps.srh.noaa.gov/index.php?wfo=abq
USGS...
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nm/nwis/current?type=flow
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2341 CLARK CARR LOOP SE ALBUQUERQUE NM 87106 PHONE...505-244-9147 SR-ABQ.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
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