DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 2 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008 .SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXPAND ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. SYNOPSIS... ACCORDING TO THE UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR, EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE EXPANDED INTO PORTIONS OF HIDALGO, ZAPATA, STARR, JIM HOGG, BROOKS AND WESTERN KENEDY COUNTIES. SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO EXPANDED INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF EASTERN KENEDY, WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES. THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY AFFECTING AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS, INCLUDING PASTURES AND GRASSLANDS. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... FIRE DANGER IMPACTS. WILDFIRE DANGER CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ACCORDING TO THE STATE OF TEXAS FOREST SERVICE, THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, DRY FUELS, AND OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS WILL ALLOW THE FIRE DANGER TO REMAIN MODERATE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE, LATEST KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI) ARE CURRENTLY 600 TO 700 KBDI OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. COUNTY BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT FOR JIM HOGG, STARR, HIDALGO AND WILLACY COUNTIES. RESIDENTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ARE URGED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN DISPOSING OF SMOKING MATERIALS, AND REFRAIN FROM ALL OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS. ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER, SOIL MOISTURE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS SEVERELY DRY. ACCORDING TO THE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL, AND TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION SERVICE AGENTS..."TOP SOIL MOISTURE WAS MOSTLY VERY SHORT TO SHORT ACROSS THE REGION. COTTON, CORN, SORGHUM CONDITION WAS MOSTLY FAIR TO GOOD. SORGHUM HARVEST IS BEGINNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. EXTREME DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE STRESSED CROPS. PASTURES AND RANGELAND CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DECLINE. PRODUCERS CONTINUED SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING OF LIVESTOCK. WATERMELON HARVEST CONTINUED". CURRENT EVAPORATION RATES OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ARE AVERAGING NEAR HALF AN INCH. WATER RESTRICTIONS. ACCORDING TO THE STATE OF TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY (TCEQ), THERE ARE CURRENTLY 3 PUBLIC WATER SYSTEMS IN HIDALGO COUNTY WHICH ARE UNDER MILD RATIONING. CLIMATE SUMMARY... EXTREME DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE PAST WEEK. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVED OVER EASTERN KENEDY COUNTY ON THE 15TH. YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE AVERAGING 3 TO 6 INCHES, OR 3 TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. SINCE THE START OF THE YEAR, MUCH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS HAS RECEIVED ONLY 25 TO NEAR 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... JUNE 20TH-JULY 4TH. MID LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM JUNE 20TH AND 21ST. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP FROM JUNE 22ND THROUGH JULY 4TH WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH SOME BETTER TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM JUNE 22ND THROUGH JULY 4TH. OVERALL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM JUNE 20TH THROUGH JULY 4TH WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. NORMAL HIGHS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THIS UPCOMING PERIOD GENERALLY RANGE FROM NEAR 90 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AREAS. NORMAL NIGHTTIME LOWS FOR THIS SAME PERIOD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS. ANY OF THE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD WILL RESULT IN ONLY SHORT TERM RELIEF FROM THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS. LONG RANGE CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR JULY AND AUGUST OF 2008...DERIVED FROM GUIDANCE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT LA NINA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST OF SUMMER OF 2008. AS A RESULT OF THE WEAKENING LA NINA CONDITIONS...MORE NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INTO AUGUST. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL DROUGHT CONDITIONS AROUND THE AREA THROUGH LATE SUMMER OF 2008. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... FALCON AND AMISTAD RESERVOIRS PROVIDE MUCH OF THE WATER FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CURRENTLY, STORAGE AT AMISTAD IS AT 68 PERCENT OF NORMAL CONSERVATION. STORAGE AT FALCON IS CURRENTLY AT 34 PERCENT OF NORMAL CONSERVATION. THE U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK AND OTHER GUIDANCE FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MAY IMPROVE SOME THROUGH AUGUST. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON FRIDAY JULY 4 2008 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.
RELATED WEB SITES... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND THE LATEST WEATHER FORECAST FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bro/
YOU MAY ALSO VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER WEBSITE AT...
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/index.php
GET THE LATEST INFORMATION ON RESERVOIR LEVELS FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION AT...
http://www.ibwc.state.gov/
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS... THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...THE USDA...STATE AGRILIFE EXTENSION SERVICE DISTRICT AGENTS, TEXAS FOREST SERVICE AND IBWC. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 20 SOUTH VERMILLION ROAD BROWNSVILLE, TEXAS 78521 PHONE: 956-504-1432 EMAIL: SR-BRO.webmaster@noaa.gov VEGA/SPEECE/CASTILLO