DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
130 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2008
...RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS HAS BEEN INSUFFICIENT TO
SIGNIFICANTLY EASE THE DROUGHT...
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SYNOPSIS...
EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF FALLS...MILAM...AND
ROBERTSON COUNTIES. IN THIS AREA...LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN FELL
DURING THE MONTHS OF JUNE AND JULY...ADDING AN ADDITIONAL 5 INCHES
TO LONGTERM PRECIPITATION DEFICITS. MODERATE (D1) TO SEVERE DROUGHT
(D2) REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS.
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD PASSED OVER THOSE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
WHERE EXTREME DROUGHT PERSISTS...BUT PROVIDED NO RELIEF. EDOUARD DID
HOWEVER BRING COPIOUS RAIN TO A SMALL AREA BETWEEN COMANCHE...
HAMILTON...AND GOLDTHWAITE. RADAR ESTIMATES IN THIS RURAL AREA WERE
AS HIGH AS 8 TO 10 INCHES THE MORNING OF AUGUST 6...PROMPTING A
REDUCTION TO SIMPLY ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) IN THE MOST RECENT DROUGHT
MONITOR (AUGUST 14). YEAR-TO-DATE AND 10-MONTH PRECIPITATION
DEFICITS STILL REMAIN.
AFTER A BRIEF INTRODUCTION OF THE ABNORMALLY DRY CATEGORY IN
NORTHEAST TEXAS...RECENT RAINS REMOVED IT. AREAS EAST OF LINE FROM
DENISON DAM...TO WOLFE CITY...TO EMORY REMAIN FREE OF ANY DROUGHT
CLASSIFICATION. PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THIS AREA HAVE BEEN NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS.
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SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS
THE GROWING SEASON BEGAN WITH AMPLE PRECIPITATION...BUT WELL BELOW
NORMAL RAINFALL HAS DOMINATED THE LAST THREE MONTHS. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF VEGETATION IS STRESSED...AND MANY AGRICULTURAL AREAS ARE
IN POOR CONDITION. CONSIDERABLE IMPACTS TO LOCAL CORN...SOYBEANS...
AND COTTON HAVE BEEN REPORTED...AS WELL AS DIRE PROJECTIONS FOR MILO
AND OTHER SORGHUM.
PASTURE FORAGE HAS GONE DORMANT IN SOME AREAS. HAY CUTTING BEGAN
MUCH EARLIER THAN NORMAL...WITH HAY ALREADY BEING USED FOR FEED.
SIMILAR ISSUES OCCURRED IN 2006...BUT ADDITIONAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS
ARE IN PLAY THIS YEAR BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE DROUGHT. MUCH OF THE
TEXAS CORN CROP IS STRESSED TO THE POINT THAT ANY SUMMER RAIN IS
UNLIKELY TO SAVE IT. CONSIDERABLE LOSSES TO LOCAL CORN...COMBINED
WITH CATASTROPHIC FLOOD LOSSES IN THE MIDWEST CORN BELT...AND AN
INCREASE IN THE PRODUCTION OF CORN-BASED ETHANOL...HAVE RESULTED IN
DRAMATIC INCREASES IN THE PRICE OF FEED CORN. WITH INCREASES IN FUEL
AND ENERGY PRICES SERVING AS ADDITIONAL ECONOMIC STRESSORS...
RANCHERS ARE SELLING OFF CATTLE TO MITIGATE LOSSES.
FIRE DANGER
THE THREAT OF WILDFIRES DURING THE SUMMER IS TYPICALLY LOW...DUE TO
LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONALLY HIGH HUMIDITY. WHEN DROUGHT CONDITIONS
OCCUR DURING THE WARM SEASON...STRESSED OR DORMANT VEGETATION CAN
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY CURED TO SUSTAIN FIRE. IN ADDITION...ABUNDANT
GROWTH FROM 2007 REMAINS AS FINE FUEL...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A
SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN FIRE INITIATION AND MAINTENANCE.
NEARLY ALL WILDFIRES ARE EITHER INTENTIONALLY OR CARELESSLY SET...
AND EXERCISING CAUTION CAN HELP PREVENT FIRE INITIATION. ONE
IMPROPERLY DISCARDED CIGARETTE CAN PUT HOMES AND LIVES IN DANGER.
FOUR ADDITIONAL COUNTIES ENACTED OUTDOOR BURN BANS IN EARLY AUGUST.
OF THE 46 COUNTIES IN THE NWS FORT WORTH AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...
THERE ARE NOW 38 WITH COUNTYWIDE BURN BANS. ANDERSON COUNTY RECENTLY
RE-ENACTED THE BAN THAT WAS IN PLACE EARLIER THIS SUMMER. AFTER
SEVERAL MONTHS WITHOUT FORMAL BANS...FANNIN...KAUFMAN...AND JACK ARE
NOW AMONG THOSE COUNTIES RESTRICTING OUTDOOR BURNING.
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CLIMATE SUMMARY...
IN PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS...RAINFALL TOTALS FOR JUNE AND JULY WERE
AMONG THE DRIEST ON RECORD. BELOW ARE COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS WHO
RECEIVED LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN DURING THESE TWO MONTHS.
COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS
2-MONTH PRECIPITATION DATA
(JUNE 1 - JULY 31, 2008)
TOTAL NORMAL DEPARTURE PERCENT OF NORMAL
--- EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) ---
BREMOND 0.57 5.33 -4.76 11
MARLIN 0.60 5.64 -5.04 11
ROCKDALE 0.77 5.47 -4.70 14
ROSEBUD 0.57 5.38 -4.81 11
--- SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) ---
WACO DAM 0.62 6.00 -5.38 10
WHITNEY DAM 0.96 5.99 -5.03 16
ASIDE FROM MARCH AND APRIL...THE LAST 10 MONTHS HAVE BEEN DOMINATED
BY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE MOST EXTREME DEFICITS HAVE BEEN
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO PALESTINE...WHERE SOME LOCATIONS
HAVE RECEIVED AS LITTLE AS HALF THEIR NORMAL PRECIPITATION SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF OCTOBER 2007.
COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS
10-MONTH PRECIPITATION DATA
(OCTOBER 1, 2007 - JULY 31, 2008)
TOTAL NORMAL DEPARTURE PERCENT OF NORMAL
--- EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) ---
BREMOND 20.66 32.65 -11.99 63
FRANKLIN 19.99 32.78 -12.79 61
MARLIN 17.56 31.94 -14.38 55
ROCKDALE 21.62 31.15 -9.53 69
ROSEBUD 22.02 32.05 -10.03 69
--- SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) ---
NIX STORE 15.09 27.46 -12.37 55
PALO PINTO 21.31 28.58 -7.27 75
WEATHERFORD 21.82 29.25 -7.43 75
WACO DAM 22.65 31.04 -8.39 73
WHITNEY DAM 18.76 29.94 -11.18 63
--- MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) ---
BARDWELL DAM 22.69 32.43 -9.74 70
BOWIE 18.81 27.78 -8.97 68
CENTERVILLE 25.44 36.96 -11.52 69
CHALK MOUNTAIN 21.30 27.37 -6.07 78
NAVARRO MILLS DAM 25.17 33.05 -7.88 76
--- ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) ---
ATHENS 33.05 36.53 -3.48 90
GAINESVILLE 27.86 32.73 -4.87 85
MUENSTER 20.25 30.12 -9.87 67
TRENTON 31.66 37.95 -6.29 83
WILLS POINT 35.78 38.03 -2.25 94
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PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. HOWEVER...ONE OR TWO RAIN EVENTS WILL BE
INSUFFICIENT TO END THE DROUGHT. IN ADDITION...WHEN THE GROUND IS
VERY DRY...A LARGE PORTION OF HEAVY RAIN BECOMES RUNOFF AND IS NOT
CONVERTED TO LONGTERM SOIL MOISTURE. THE RAIN EVENT OF AUGUST 14-15
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. WHILE
INSIGNIFICANT FOR REVERSING THE DROUGHT...THIS RAIN MAY ALLOW FOR
BETTER SOIL ABSORPTION DURING SUBSEQUENT EVENTS.
THE 6-10 DAY (AUG 21-25) AND 8-14 DAY (AUG 23-29) OUTLOOKS ALSO HAVE
FAVORABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THUS...THE U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT
OUTLOOK CONTENDS THAT AN IMPROVEMENT OF AT LEAST ONE DROUGHT
CATEGORY IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS. NONETHELESS...
SUCH LARGE PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ARE UNLIKELY TO BE ERASED DURING
THE WARM SEASON...AND THE DROUGHT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING
AUTUMN.
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HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
THANKS TO EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION IN 2007 AND SOME PLENTIFUL RAINS
IN MARCH AND APRIL OF THIS YEAR...NEARLY EVERY RESERVOIR IN NORTH
TEXAS REMAINS AT LEAST 80 PERCENT CAPACITY. SEVERAL WATER SUPPLY
LAKES ARE STILL ABOVE 90 PERCENT...DESPITE EXTRAORDINARY EVAPORATION
AND USAGE. ONE NOTABLE EXCEPTION IS LAKE WHITNEY...WHICH HAS FALLEN
TO 44 PERCENT OF CONSERVATION. ALSO...LAKE BENBROOK DROPPED ANOTHER
TWO AND A HALF FEET DURING THE FIRST HALF OF AUGUST TO FALL TO 68
PERCENT.
RESERVOIR DATA - AUGUST 15, 2008
NORMAL POOL CURRENT PERCENT OF
POOL HEIGHT DEFICIT CONSERVATION
RED RIVER BASIN
LAKE TEXOMA 619.0 615.40 -3.60 91
PAY MAYSE LAKE 451.0 450.25 -0.75 96
JIM CHAPMAN LAKE 440.0 438.01 -1.99 87
TRINITY RIVER BASIN
LAKE BRIDGEPORT 836.0 832.17 -3.83 87
EAGLE MOUNTAIN LAKE 649.0 646.32 -2.68 88
LAKE WORTH 594.0 593.27 -0.73 93
LAKE BENBROOK 694.0 687.21 -6.79 68
LAKE RAY ROBERTS 632.5 631.58 -0.92 97
LAKE LEWISVILLE 522.0 519.44 -2.56 86
LAKE GRAPEVINE 535.0 531.91 -3.09 86
LAKE LAVON 492.0 488.41 -3.59 84
LAKE RAY HUBBARD 435.5 434.22 -1.28 94
JOE POOL LAKE 522.0 520.68 -1.32 93
BARDWELL LAKE 421.0 419.32 -1.68 89
NAVARRO MILLS LAKE 424.5 423.18 -1.32 88
CEDAR CREEK RESERVOIR 322.0 320.63 -1.37 93
RICHLAND CHAMBERS 315.0 313.07 -1.93 93
BRAZOS RIVER BASIN
POSSUM KINGDOM LAKE 1000.0 996.59 -3.41 87
PROCTOR LAKE 1162.0 1159.08 -2.92 75
BELTON LAKE 594.0 593.74 -0.26 99
STILLHOUSE HOLLOW 622.0 620.50 -1.50 96
LAKE GRANBURY 693.0 690.33 -2.67 85
LAKE WHITNEY 533.0 526.50 -6.50 44
AQUILLA LAKE 537.5 535.15 -2.35 78
WACO LAKE 462.0 460.23 -1.77 92
LAKE LIMESTONE 363.0 360.75 -2.25 85
IN GENERAL...WATER SUPPLIES ARE STILL ADEQUATE TO HANDLE DEMAND...
THUS THE CURRENT DROUGHT REMAINS PRIMARILY ONE OF AGRICULTURAL
IMPACT. HOWEVER...SOME LOCAL WATER SUPPLIES HAVE REACHED LEVELS
REQUIRING STAGE 2 WATER RESTRICTIONS...INCLUDING MUNICIPALITIES IN
THE GREATER DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA.
IN CENTRAL TEXAS...WHERE EXTREME DROUGHT HAS PREVAILED...MORE
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS HAVE BEEN ONGOING. WATER IS BEING
PUMPED FROM THE BRAZOS RIVER TO SUPPLEMENT THE WATER SUPPLY FOR THE
CITY OF MARLIN. HOWEVER...MOST JURISDICTIONS...INCLUDING MARLIN...
HAVE MAINTAINED CALLS FOR VOLUNTARY CONSERVATION WITHOUT FORMAL
WATER RESTRICTIONS.
EVEN IF WATER RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR YOUR
AREA...RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO BE SENSIBLE ABOUT WATER USAGE. WATER
USAGE INCREASES DRAMATICALLY DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS...PARTICULARLY
DURING TIMES OF LIMITED RAINFALL. AVOID WATERING BETWEEN 10 AM AND
6 PM...WHEN EVAPORATION LIMITS ITS EFFECTIVENESS.
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NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
AN UPDATED DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED IN EARLY
SEPTEMBER. THE NEW STATEMENT WILL INCORPORATE PRECIPITATION DATA
THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST...INCLUDING A DISCUSSION ABOUT THE IMPACTS
THE CURRENT RAIN CHANCES MAY HAVE YIELDED. AN OUTLOOK FOR THE FALL
SEASON WILL ALSO BE INCLUDED.
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RELATED WEB SITES...
NWS FORT WORTH DROUGHT PAGE - WEATHER.GOV/FORTWORTH/DROUGHT.HTML
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM - DROUGHT.GOV
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER - WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER - DROUGHT.UNL.EDU
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR - DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER - DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR FACILITATES CONTINUOUS DISCUSSION AMONG
NUMEROUS AGENCIES...ACADEMIA...AND OTHER LOCAL INTERESTS. THE
EXPERTISE OF ITS MEMBERS HAS BEEN INVALUABLE IN DEVELOPING DROUGHT
PRODUCTS AND SERVICES FOR OUR CUSTOMERS AND PARTNERS.
THE DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER (MAINTAINED BY THE NATIONAL DROUGHT
MITIGATION CENTER) HAS ALLOWED VARIOUS IMPACTS TO BE COMPILED WITHIN
ONE CLEARING HOUSE. THESE IMPACTS INCLUDE AGRICULTURAL ISSUES...
HYDROLOGIC DEFICITS...FIRE DANGER...AND OTHER SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC
CONSEQUENCES. A SUMMARY OF THE SUBMITTED IMPACTS IS INCLUDED IN EACH
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT.
THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE (TFS) CONTINUALLY MONITORS VEGETATION
CONDITIONS AND WILDFIRE POTENTIAL. THE STATE AGENCY ALSO MAINTAINS A
CURRENT LIST OF COUNTYWIDE BURN BANS.
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ARE SUMMARIZED FROM A
VARIETY OF PRODUCTS CREATED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC).
CPC IS A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) ENTITY WITHIN THE NATIONAL
CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION (NCEP).
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QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK ON OUR DROUGHT
PRODUCTS AND SERVICES...PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
3401 NORTHERN CROSS BLVD.
FORT WORTH, TX 76137
PHONE: (817) 429-2631
E-MAIL: SR-FWD.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
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$$
HUCKABY/25