DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 1000 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2008 ...GOOD CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT DRY CONDITIONS TO RESUME THIS WEEKEND... SYNOPSIS... ACCORDING TO THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY SINCE LAST WEEK. SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/ CONDITIONS NOW EXIST IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65.... INCLUDING THE CITIES OF HUNTSVILLE...ATHENS...DECATUR...MOULTON... CULLMAN...FORT PAYNE...AND SCOTTSBORO. IT ALSO INCLUDES ALL THREE COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE REMAINDER OF NORTHWEST ALABAMA IS NOW IN MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/...EXCEPT FOR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... STATE AND LOCAL DECLARATIONS: AS OF THE LATEST DECLARATION ON JULY 14TH...THE STATE OF ALABAMA HAS NO COUNTIES UNDER A DROUGHT EMERGENCY. CULLMAN COUNTY REMAINS IN A STATE-DECLARED DROUGHT WARNING. THE REMAINING 10 COUNTIES OF NORTH ALABAMA ARE IN A STATE-DECLARED DROUGHT WATCH. A WATCH IS THE SECOND-HIGHEST OF THE FOUR-LEVEL ALABAMA DROUGHT DECLARATION LEVEL SYSTEM. A WARNING IS THE THIRD-HIGHEST. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS: CROPS WERE GENERALLY REPORTED IN FAIR TO GOOD CONDITION ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH THERE IS AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF CROPS THAT ARE NOW CONSIDERED POOR. PONDS ARE REPORTED TO HAVE VERY LOW LEVELS IN SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND A SECOND CUTTING OF HAY APPEARS UNLIKELY. BUT NOT ALL AREAS ARE SUFFERING...AS IS TYPICAL IN THE SUMMER...SOME LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN MORE RAIN THAN OTHERS AND THUS CROPS ARE IN BETTER SHAPE IN THOSE AREAS. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS: THE ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION CURRENTLY HAS NO COUNTIES IN A FIRE ALERT OR DROUGHT EMERGENCY. THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) CURRENTLY IS GREATER THAN 500 IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS INDICATES CONDITIONS THAT COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WILDFIRES. IN AREAS IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...THE KBDI IS IN THE 300 TO 400 RANGE. THESE AREAS USUALLY RECEIVE MORE RAINFALL THAN AREAS TO THE WEST DUE TO THEIR LOCATION ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...AND ITS ABILITY TO AID IN AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY DUE TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. CLIMATE SUMMARY... OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED RAINFALL DUE TO AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SEVERAL OBSERVERS REPORTED AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN WITHIN THE PAST FEW DAYS. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING LOOKS TO HOLD THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY FRIDAY...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TO THE AREA...WITH FEW CHANCES FOR RAIN UNTIL NEXT WEEK. MONTH-TO-DATE RAINFALL IS ABOVE NORMAL JUST WEST OF MUSCLE SHOALS... IN MUCH OF CULLMAN COUNTY...NEAR VALLEY HEAD...AND IN THE HARVEST AND MONROVIA AREAS. EVERYWHERE ELSE THOUGH IS BELOW NORMAL...AND IN SOME CASES MORE THAN THREE INCHES BELOW NORMAL. THE DRIEST LOCATION RELATIVE TO NORMAL IS NEAR SEWANEE IN FRANKLIN COUNTY TENNESSEE. EXTREMELY HOT TEMPERATURES OCCURRED OVER THE PAST WEEK...BUT SOME COOL MORNINGS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA...SPARKING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THIS TIME. LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT BENEFICIAL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE ACTIVITY LATER TODAY...WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA RECEIVING OVER AN INCH OF RAIN. SOME LOCATIONS WILL POSSIBLY RECEIVE UPWARDS OF TWO INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...HOT AND DRY. A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL RETURN TO THE AREA THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BEGINNING TOMORROW. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL NOT RETURN TO THE AREA UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE OUTLOOK FOR WEEK TWO...AUGUST 5TH THROUGH AUGUST 9TH...FAVORS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE ENTIRE TENNESSEE VALLEY. NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR A WEEK IN EARLY AUGUST IS ABOUT ONE INCH. THE OUTLOOK FROM AUGUST THROUGH OCTOBER FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA...BUT EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL...BELOW NORMAL...OR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE. EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL...BELOW NORMAL...OR NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXIST FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THE LATEST SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...THROUGH OCTOBER...INDICATES SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE IN THE REMAINING DROUGHT AREAS IN THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT IMPLY AN END TO THE DROUGHT. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT CONDITIONS COULD STILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE...IF DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE ARE GENERALLY RUNNING SLIGHTLY TO SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MANY ARE NEAR BASEFLOW...AND BASEFLOW ITSELF REMAINS A BIT BELOW THE USUAL DUE TO REMAINING DROUGHT EFFECTS. LAKE LEVELS ARE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS ARE BEAR CREEK LAKE AND LITTLE BEAR CREEK LAKE...WHICH HAVE LEVELS BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CONSTRUCTION AND INSPECTION PROJECTS. SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE DRY...WITH ALL OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT OR BELOW THE 20TH PERCENTILE. GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME STRAIN THOUGH THEY ARE CERTAINLY IN BETTER SHAPE THAN AT THIS SAME TIME LAST YEAR. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT BOTH SOIL MOISTURE AND GROUNDWATER SHOW LINGERING EFFECTS FROM DROUGHT THE LONGEST AND TAKE THE LONGEST TO RECHARGE ONCE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE. THEREFORE...THEY ARE IMPORTANT LONG-TERM INDICATORS. THE OUTLOOK FOR RIVER AND LAKE LEVELS IS FOR LITTLE CHANGE FROM CURRENT CONDITIONS. SOME LOCALIZED RIVER RISES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO SPOTTY RAINFALL. LAKE LEVELS ON TIMS FORD LAKE AND SMITH LAKE ARE LIKELY TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT WEEK WITH THE FORECAST CALLING FOR LITTLE RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY JULY 31ST. UPDATES WILL OCCUR SOONER IF CONDITIONS DEPICTED IN THIS STATEMENT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY. RELATED WEB SITES... FOR MUCH MORE DROUGHT INFORMATION...INCLUDING LINKS TO MANY DROUGHT INDICATORS...VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT:
http://www.weather.gov/huntsville/
FOR A TABLE OF PRECIPITATION DEFICITS...GO TO:
http://www.weather.gov/huntsville/productview.php?pil=pns&sid=hun
YOU MAY NEED TO CLICK ON THE PREVIOUS VERSIONS NUMBERS TO ACCESS THE LATEST TABULAR INFORMATION. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS... SOME DATA USED IN THIS STATEMENT WERE PROVIDED BY THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...COUNTY EXTENSION AGENTS...THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY...AND THE STATES OF ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ON THE DROUGHT...CONTACT: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 320A SPARKMAN DRIVE HUNTSVILLE AL 35805 PHONE: 256-890-8503 SR-HUN.webmaster@noaa.gov PARCUS