HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
115 PM CST THU JAN 18 2007
...MODEST IMPROVEMENT SEEN IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS THE LAST MONTH...
.SYNOPSIS...
DROUGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL... SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HOWEVER... PORTIONS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
REMAIN UNDER EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS. A SERIES OF STORMS THAT
OCCURRED OVER THE LAST MONTH PROVIDED THIS RELIEF. HOWEVER...
FOR 2006... CHANUTE HAD A PRECIPITATION DEFICIT OF 13.10 INCHES...
SALINA WAS 6.80 INCHES BELOW NORMAL... RUSSELL WAS 4.91 INCHES
BELOW NORMAL AND WICHITA WAS 1.02 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. NEEDLESS TO
SAY... SEVERAL MORE MONTHS OF SURPLUS PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEEDED
TO SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
.LOCAL AREA AFFECTED...
THERE ARE FIVE LEVELS OF INTENSITY DEPICTED ON THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR /USDM/. THE USDM LEVELS ARE THE FOLLOWING:
D0 - ABNORMALLY DRY... GOING INTO DROUGHT - CAUSES SHORT-TERM
DRYNESS SLOWING PLANTING... GROWTH OF CROPS OR PASTURES AND
ABOVE AVERAGE FIRE RISK. COMING OUT OF DROUGHT - THERE ARE SOME
LINGERING WATER DEFICITS... PASTURES AND CROPS ARE NOT FULLY
RECOVERED.
D1 - MODERATE DROUGHT... SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS OR PASTURES...
HIGH FIRE RISK EXISTS... STREAMS... RESERVOIRS OR WELLS ARE
LOW... SOME WATER SHORTAGES DEVELOP OR ARE IMMINENT AND
VOLUNTARY USE RESTRICTIONS ARE REQUESTED.
D2 - SEVERE DROUGHT... CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES ARE LIKELY... FIRE
RISK IS VERY HIGH... WATER SHORTAGES ARE COMMON... WATER
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE IMPOSED.
D3 - EXTREME DROUGHT... MAJOR CROP AND PASTURE LOSSES... FIRE DANGER
IS EXTREME AND WIDESPREAD WATER SHORTAGES AND RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.
D4 - EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT... EXCEPTIONAL AND WIDESPREAD CROP AND
PASTURE LOSSES... EXCEPTIONAL FIRE DANGER EXISTS... SHORTAGES
OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS... STREAMS... AND WELLS OCCUR CREATING
WATER EMERGENCIES.
D4 - EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE NOT OCCURRING AT THIS TIME
ACROSS ANY PORTION OF CENTRAL... SOUTH CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
D3 - EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF HARPER AND SUMNER COUNTIES AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST
COWLEY COUNTY.
D2 - SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
HARPER AND SUMNER COUNTIES AS WELL AS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF COWLEY
AND FAR SOUTHERN KINGMAN COUNTY.
D1 - MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL OF RENO...
RICE... SALINE... MCPHERSON... HARVEY... SEDGWICK... MARION...
CHASE... BUTLER... GREENWOOD... ELK... WOODSON... WILSON... ALLEN
AND NEOSHO COUNTIES. MODERATE DROUGHT IS ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS MOST
OF CHAUTAUQUA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MONTGOMERY AND LABETTE
COUNTIES AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF BARTON AND ELLSWORTH
COUNTIES.
D0 - ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS NORTHERN BARTON AND
ELLSWORTH COUNTIES AS WELL AS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF RUSSELL AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES.
.STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS...
THE LATEST COUNTY DROUGHT DECLARATIONS ISSUED BY THE GOVERNOR
INDICATE THAT THE ENTIRE STATE OF KANSAS IS UNDER A DROUGHT WARNING.
A DROUGHT WARNING MEANS THAT A SEVERE DROUGHT EXISTS IN THE STATE
WITH CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES LIKELY... THERE ARE SOME STOCK WATER
SHORTAGES... VERY HIGH RANGELAND FIRE DANGER EXISTS AND SOME PUBLIC
WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES AND SOME STREAMFLOW TARGETS NOT BEING MET.
.CLIMATE SUMMARY...
THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL FOR
2006 FOR AREAS REPRESENTING CENTRAL... SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.
RUSSELL SALINA WICHITA CHANUTE
MONTH DEPARTURE DEPARTURE DEPARTURE DEPARTURE
JAN -0.58 -0.66 -0.73 -0.27
FEB -0.78 -1.06 -1.02 -1.90
MAR -0.85 -1.06 -0.43 -1.32
APR -0.52 +0.68 -0.58 +1.66
MAY -2.23 -3.10 +2.60 -0.11
JUN -0.02 +0.47 +2.07 -3.20
JUL -3.06 -3.53 -1.15 -1.79
AUG +2.45 +3.21 +2.99 -1.47
SEP -0.10 -0.64 -2.24 -3.05
OCT -0.17 -0.95 -1.51 -0.98
NOV -0.96 -1.53 -1.36 -1.20
DEC +1.91 +1.37 +0.34 +0.53
YEAR -4.91 -6.80 -1.02 -13.10
.SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...
SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES ARE RUNNING FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AROUND 3.1
INCHES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER... ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THE RANGE IS FROM ABOUT 1.6 TO 3.1
INCHES BELOW NORMAL.
.RIVER AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...
MOST OF THE RIVERS IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS ARE RUNNING
AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. RIVERS IN CENTRAL KANSAS ARE RUNNING AT
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
.PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THE LATEST 3 MONTH PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS FOR THE
FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL TIME FRAME FROM ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) INDICATE AN EQUAL CHANCE FOR ABOVE... BELOW
OR NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH BETWEEN A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE IS A 33 TO 40 PERCENT
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. FOR THE REST OF
JANUARY... BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE POSSIBLE.
.QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
PLEASE CONTACT...
CHRIS BOWMAN
DROUGHT FOCAL POINT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2142 SOUTH TYLER RD
WICHITA, KS 67209
316-942-3102
Chris.Bowman@noaa.gov
.RELATED WEB SITES...
US DROUGHT MONITOR http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/
KANSAS WATER OFFICE http://www.kwo.org/
US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE http://www.weather.gov/ict/
NWS WICHITA DROUGHT PAGE http://www.weather.gov/ict/?n=drought
.ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...
THE US DROUGHT MONITOR IS A WEEKLY COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN A
NUMBER OF FEDERAL AGENCIES INCLUDING NOAA/NWS... US DEPARTMENT OF
AGRICULTURE... STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT
HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES... THE USGS AND
THE KANSAS WATER OFFICE.
.NEXT ISSUANCE...
THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED BY MID-FEBRUARY.
BOWMAN