DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 330 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008
...SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DUE TO LONG TERM PRECIPITATION DEFICITS...
SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS BROUGHT SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE LAST WEEK WITH MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVING OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL ON THE 15TH ALONE. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE WEEK ENDING THURSDAY MORNING RANGED FROM TWO TO THREE INCHES OVER HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES TO LESS THAN AN INCH WEST OF INTERSTATE 75. DESPITE THE RECENT RAINS... LONG TERM PRECIPITATION DEFICITS REMAIN LARGE AND IT IS FOR THAT REASON THAT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE DROUGHT CHARACTERIZATION WITH THE LATEST EDITION OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR RELEASED ON THURSDAY NOVEMBER 20TH. MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT CONDITIONS WHILE THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION... ROUGHLY LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MOUNT VERNON TO PINEVILLE TO THE TENNESSEE BORDER... ARE EXPERIENCING EXTREME (D3) DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO THE DROUGHT MONITOR.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS. ON OCTOBER 31ST THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE DECLARED ALL KENTUCKY COUNTIES TO BE A NATURAL DISASTER AREA DUE TO RECENT DROUGHT AND WIND DAMAGE. THIS DECLARATION PERMITS AFFECTED FARMERS... RANCHERS AND OTHER AGRICULTURAL PRODUCERS TO APPLY FOR LOW-INTEREST EMERGENCY LOANS FROM THE FARM SERVICE AGENCY.
THE KENTUCKY DIVISION OF WATER HAS ISSUED A WATER SHORTAGE EMERGENCY FOR MAGOFFIN COUNTY DUE TO CRITICALLY LOW WATER LEVELS IN THE LICKING RIVER WHICH ARE THREATENING THE ABILITY OF SALYERSVILLE MUNICIPAL WATER TO SUPPLY ITS CUSTOMERS. A WATER SHORTAGE WATCH ISSUED BY THE DIVISION OF WATER FOR HARLAN... LETCHER... BREATHITT... CLAY... KNOTT... LESLIE... OWSLEY AND PERRY COUNTIES REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE WATER SHORTAGE WATCH INCLUDES THOSE CITIZENS RELYING ON UNDERGROUND MINES AND WELLS FOR THEIR WATER. CITIZENS IN THE WATCH AREAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO ADHERE TO ALL REQUESTS MADE BY THEIR LOCAL WATER SUPPLIER TO HELP REDUCE DEMAND FOR WATER. THEY ARE ENCOURAGED TO LIMIT CAR WASHING AND OUTDOOR WATERING... AVOID HOSING DOWN PATIOS AND DRIVEWAYS AND LIMIT THE USE OF CLOTHES WASHERS AND DISHWASHERS.
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. AS OF THURSDAY NOVEMBER 20TH... MIDWEST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER ESTIMATES INDICATE SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS IN THE TOP 12 INCHES OF SOIL OF AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH. SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS IN THE TOP 72 INCHES OF SOIL RANGE FROM AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER TO AS MUCH AS 3.5 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN BLUEGRASS REGION OF EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS. FIRE DANGER HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY OVER THE PAST WEEK AND AS OF NOVEMBER 20TH... ALL BURN BANS HAVE BEEN LIFTED. THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX... WHICH IS A DROUGHT INDEX DESIGNED SPECIFICALLY FOR FIRE POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT... HAS DECREASED TO BETWEEN 350 AND 450 AT MOST REPORTING STATIONS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS LEVEL THE LOWER LITTER AND DUFF LAYERS WILL BURN ACTIVELY.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
THE FOLLOWING TABLE ILLUSTRATES THE SHORT... MEDIUM... AND LONG RANGE PRECIPITATION DEFICITS OR SURPLUSES BEING OBSERVED AT SEVERAL EAST KENTUCKY OBSERVING STATIONS. THESE AMOUNTS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION WHICH FELL THROUGH 8 AM THURSDAY NOVEMBER 20TH...
MONTH DEPART| SINCE DEPART| SINCE DEPART STATION COUNTY TO DATE NRML | 1JUN08 NRML | 1JAN08 NRML
CAVE RUN LAKE ROWAN 2.38 +0.13 | 16.60 -5.97 | 40.80 -1.28 WEST LIBERTY MORGAN 1.86 -0.25 | 12.87 -7.72 | 33.55 -6.07 WFO JACKSON BREATHITT 1.61 -1.09 | 14.97 -8.07 | 32.22 -11.39 BUCKHORN PERRY 1.50 -0.87 | 13.73 -7.36 | 31.78 -9.80 WILLIAMSON WV MINGO 2.17 -0.10 | 18.13 -3.67 | 35.44 -5.11 CLOSPLINT HARLAN 3.30 +0.39 | 21.86 -3.44 | 44.11 -7.88 BARBOURVILLE KNOX 2.96 +0.15 | 17.23 -5.43 | 36.17 -8.88 LONDON ASOS LAUREL 1.88 -0.62 | 12.45 -8.21 | 29.49 -12.21 MOUNT VERNON ROCKCASTLE 2.00 -0.71 | 13.08 -10.07 | 34.94 -11.16 SOMERSET 2N PULASKI 2.50 -0.19 | 14.21 -8.43 | 34.44 -10.26 MONTICELLO WAYNE 2.27 -0.37 | 11.82 -10.14 | 31.49 -13.18
IT IS ESTIMATED THAT AROUND FOUR AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL IS NEEDED OVER THE NEXT THREE MONTH PERIOD... IN ADDITION TO WHAT NORMALLY FALLS DURING THAT PERIOD... TO END THE HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT.
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MODERATE FROM THE CHILLY 30S ON FRIDAY TOWARD 50 DEGREES TO END THE WEEKEND. A QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS STATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO AMOUNT TO A HALF INCH OR LESS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... BUT PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY ADD UP TO BE BELOW NORMAL.
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK... PROVIDED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER... FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY NOVEMBER 28TH THROUGH THURSDAY DECEMBER 4TH IS FOR A WEATHER PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD OF DECEMBER 2008 THROUGH FEBRUARY 2009... ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER... INDICATES A PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. BASED ON THIS FORECAST... DROUGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD AT LEAST PERSIST IN SOME FORM OR ANOTHER INTO THE EARLY MONTHS OF 2009.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
AS OF FRIDAY NOVEMBER 21ST... STREAMFLOWS ON MOST AREA RIVERS ARE RUNNING ON THE LOW END OF NORMAL RANGES FOR THE DATE. MUCH BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOWS... SOME NEAR RECORD LOW LEVELS FOR THE DATE... CONTINUE TO BE FOUND ON THE RED RIVER AND ON THE SOUTH FORK OF THE KENTUCKY. ALSO VERY LOW STREAMFLOWS CONTINUE ON THE LICKING RIVER CAUSING WATER SUPPLY PROBLEMS IN MAGOFFIN COUNTY.
THE KENTUCKY DIVISION OF WATER REPORTS THAT LAKES UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS AND SMALL WATER SUPPLY LAKES CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT NORMAL DRAWDOWN TO WINTER POOL LEVELS.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT DROUGHT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY DECEMBER 4TH... OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.
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RELATED WEB SITES...
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES ARE AVAILABLE FOR FURTHER WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION (ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN LOWER CASE)...
LOCAL WEATHER...CLIMATE AND WATER INFO... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JACKSONKY ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION... USGS - HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV COE - HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER... HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR... HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/INDEX.HTML CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER... HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV USDA NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS SERVICE...7 HTTP://WWW.NASS.USDA.GOV MIDWEST CLIMATE WATCH... HTTP://MRCC.SWS.UIUC.EDU/CLIWATCH/WATCH.HTM UNIVERSITY OF KENTUCKY AGRICULTURAL WEATHER CENTER... HTTP://WWWAGWX.CA.UKY.EDU/DROUGHT.HTML KENTUCKY DIVISION OF WATER... HTTP://WWW.WATER.KY.GOV/ KENTUCKY DIVISION OF FORESTRY... HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.KY.GOV/ NWS OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER... HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/OHRFC/
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER... THE USDA... STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATIONS SITES... COOPERATIVE NETWORK STATIONS... THE USGS... AND THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 1329 AIRPORT ROAD JACKSON KENTUCKY 41339 PHONE: 606-666-2560 W-JKL.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
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ABE