DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
929 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008
...REPEATED STORM SYSTEMS BROUGHT NEEDED RAIN TO SOME AREAS WHILE
OTHERS CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL RESULTING IN CONTINUED DROUGHT CONDITIONS...
SYNOPSIS...
THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
FOR ROUGHLY THE PAST WEEK. THIS HAS ALLOWED SEVERAL MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS (MCS) TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SPECIFICALLY SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TEXAS
PERMIAN BASIN...AND THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. AS MANY OF
THESE SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS
OVER THE COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS...FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING
HAS BRIEFLY OCCURRED. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS WERE ALSO PRESENT
IN THESE STORMS THAT HAS CAUSED DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ACROSS
THOSE SAME AREAS.
IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...CONVECTION AND
RAINFALL WERE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE AND WERE
GENERALLY THE RESULT OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS
ALTHOUGH IN SOME CASES THE RESULT OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE
MCS/S TO THE NORTH AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
AND LINGER IN THE LEE OFF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS ALSO PROVIDED SOME
ISOLATED HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL AS WELL AS IMPRESSIVE HAIL AT
TIMES. HOWEVER THE OVERALL AFFECTS OF RAINFALL ALONG AND WEST OF
THE PECOS RIVER IN WEST TEXAS REMAIN FAIRLY MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID JUNE 17 SHOWED A DETERIORATION
IN CONDITIONS BY AN ENTIRE CATEGORY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH
OF EDDY AND LEA COUNTIES IN NEW MEXICO...THE TEXAS PERMIAN BASIN AND
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS...THE STOCKTON PLATEAU...AND INTO
THE BIG BEND REGION WERE DETERIORATED TO A SEVERE DROUGHT (D2)
DESIGNATION WHILE THE LOWER TRANS PECOS...AREAS JUST WEST OF THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS...NORTHERN PRESIDIO COUNTY...AND THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS WERE ALL DETERIORATED TO EXTREME DROUGHT (D3).
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
WHICH WOULD LEAVE THE MIDLAND FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THAT HAS PROVIDED THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
MCS/S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH MERELY WOBBLES IN PLACE WITHOUT ANY TRUE
MOVEMENT. IN ADDITION...THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS. WHILE THE MCS DEVELOPMENTS WILL LIKELY HAVE CONTINUED
LOCALIZED AND AT TIMES SCATTERED HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING WILL BE
IN ABUNDANCE WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS WHICH CAN LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL STARTS ALONG THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS MAY RESULT IN MORE DRY LIGHTNING AS DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE HAD IN THOSE LOCATIONS. OVERALL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON
IN WEST TEXAS GENERALLY SHOWS A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY TOWARDS MID TO
LATE JUNE. HOWEVER...LACK OF ABUNDANT RAINFALL THIS YEAR...COUPLED
WITH HEAVIER FUELS FROM A WETTER THAN NORMAL WATER YEAR IN 2007
COULD LEAD TO A LONGER SEASON THAN NORMAL. ALL BUT TWO OF THE
MIDLAND CWA COUNTIES REMAIN UNDER A BURN BAN AT THIS TIME. THE TWO
THAT HAVE LIFTED BURN BANS ARE GAINES AND BORDEN COUNTIES.
THE JUNE 20 KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWS THAT MUCH OF
WEST TEXAS FALLS WITHIN THE 600 TO 800 RANGE...WITH ISOLATED
LOCATIONS IN THE 300 TO 500 RANGE. THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES
THE KBDI AS A SYSTEM FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR. IT IS A NUMERICAL
INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE
OF THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED
TO BRING THE SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO
800...WITH 0 REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY
SOIL. NOTE THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM DAY TO DAY AS
WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.
FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED BY 20 FOOT WINDSPEEDS GREATER THAN 20 MPH
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LESS THAN 15 PERCENT. WHEN THESE
CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED OR MET...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AS APPROPRIATE.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
ACCORDING TO THE JUNE 17 TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY
THE TEXAS A AND M AGRICULTURAL PROGRAM...THE FOLLOWING AGRICULTURAL
IMPACTS WERE NOTED ACROSS WEST TEXAS...HOT...DRY...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS PREVAILED. WILDFIRES OCCURRED ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH
MORE THAN 45000 ACRES BURNED IN JEFF DAVIS COUNTY ALONE.
TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS WERE ABOVE 100 DEGREES NEARLY
EVERY DAY...WITH 60 MPH WIND GUSTS MANY DAYS. THE WINTER WHEAT
HARVEST BEGAN. FALL PLANTED ONIONS WERE HARVESTED. THE SECOND
CUTTING OF ALFALFA WAS UNDER WAY. COTTON WAS AT LEAST THREE WEEKS
BEHIND IN MATURITY...AND MUCH OF WHAT COTTON EMERGED WAS DAMAGED BY
HEAT AND BLOWN SAND. CHILES WERE IN VEGETATIVE STAGE BUT WERE YET
TO MAKE FRUIT. PECAN DEVELOPMENT WAS ON SCHEDULE. FOR PECOS
COUNTY...HOT...DRY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 60 MPH ARE AN ALMOST
CONSTANT...AND TEMPERATURES ARE COMMONLY IN THE 100 PLUS DEGREE
RANGE. FARMERS ARE FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO KEEP THEIR YOUNG...
EMERGING CROPS FROM BEING DAMAGED BY THE WINDS...SOIL GLARE...AND
BLOWING SANDS. IN PRESIDIO COUNTY...HIGHS WERE NOTED IN THE MID 90S
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ABOVE 105 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.
RANGE CONDITIONS ARE VERY POOR WITH MOST CATTLE ON SUPPLEMENTAL FEED
AND CONSUMING HIGH AMOUNTS OF MINERAL.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) OUTLOOKS INDICATE EQUAL CHANCES
FOR ABOVE...NORMAL...OR BELOW TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 14 DAYS. IN
ADDITION...THEY CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH
SEPTEMBER. THIS IS LIKELY TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL ONSET OF THE FALL MONSOON SEASON IN THE JULY/AUGUST
TIME FRAME THAT GENERALLY BRINGS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO WEST TEXAS IN
THE FORM OF RAINFALL.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
WHILE THE FORECAST AND HYDROLOGIC SERVICES AREA (HSA) CONTINUE UNDER
DROUGHT CONDITIONS...NO KNOWN WATER RESTRICTIONS OR ADVISORIES ARE
KNOWN ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS VARY GREATLY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA WHERE THE NEAR DAILY MCS/S
HAVE DEVELOPED AND TRACKED...TO CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL AMOUNTS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF WHERE ONLY ISOLATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE
BEEN RECORDED. RESERVOIR LEVELS ARE RUNNING GENERALLY BETWEEN 20
AND 50 PERCENT OF CONSERVATION CAPACITY. LAKE JB THOMAS IS RUNNING
BELOW 10 PERCENT...HOWEVER LOOKING AT HISTORICAL RECORDS...THIS
APPEARS TO BE WITHIN A NORMAL FLUCTUATION RANGE FOR THIS RESERVOIR
AND NO PROBLEMS ARE NOTED AT THIS TIME.
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...
POOL 24-HR % CONSERVATION
TDY CHG. CAPACITY
LAKE JB THOMAS 2216.96 0.03 9
LAKE COLORADO CITY 2065.56 0.04 81
CHAMPION CREEK RESERVOIR 2027.34 0.09 23
NATURAL DAM SALT LAKE 2447.32 -0.01 49
MOSS CREEK LAKE 2329.99 0.12 70
BRANTLEY RES...CARLSBAD 3239.23 -0.34 23
LAKE AVALON - 3N CARLSBAD 3173.36 0.16 30
RED BLUFF DAM 2813.94 -0.09 28
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED JULY 20 OR SOONER AS NECESSARY IN
RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN AREA CONDITIONS.
&&
RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
OUR LOCAL HYDROLOGY WEB PAGE...
http://www.srh.weather.gov/maf/drought/
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...
http://www.drought.noaa.gov/
OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST...
http://www.met.tamu.edu/osc/
NWS ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS)...
http://www.weather.gov/ahps/
US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS)...
http://water.usgs.gov/
US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE)...
http://www.mvr.usace.army.mil/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION (IBWC)...
http://www.ibwc.state.gov/
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE IBWC...THE USDA...STATE AND
REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION
CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS
AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2500 CHALLENGER DRIVE
MIDLAND TEXAS 79706
PHONE: 432.563.5006
$$
MUELLER