DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 100 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2008 ...DROUGHT SLIGHTLY DEEPENS IN EAST TENNESSEE, EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA... SYNOPSIS... ALL GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTIONS ARE APPROXIMATE. D3 (EXTREME) DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST IN TENNESSEE IN THE MOUNTAIN PORTIONS OF POLK, MONROE, BLOUNT, SEVERE, COCKE, GREENE, UNICOI, AND CARTER COUNTIES, AND IN NORTH CAROLINA IN CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES. D2 (SEVERE) DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST IN TENNESSEE ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROCKWOOD TO HALLS TO CHEROKEE LAKE TO KINGSPORT. THIS INCLUDES MOST OF THE KNOXVILLE AND TRI-CITIES METRO AREAS. THEY EXIST IN VIRGINIA IN A SLIVER OF WASHINGTON COUNTY ALONG THE TENNESSEE LINE. THIS INCLUDES THE INDEPENDENT CITY OF BRISTOL. D1 (MODERATE) DROUGHT EXISTS IN TENNESSEE ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM RUGBY TO LA FOLLETTE TO TAZEWELL TO SNEEDVILLE. THEY EXIST IN VIRGINIA IN SCOTT, RUSSELL, MOST OF WASHINGTON, AND THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF WISE AND LEE COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES THE INDEPENDENT CITY OF NORTON. D0 (ABNORMALLY DRY) CONDITIONS EXIST IN EAST TENNESSEE IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SCOTT, CAMPBELL, CLAIBORNE, AND HANCOCK COUNTIES. IN VIRGINIA THIS COVERS LEE AND MOST OF WISE COUNTIES. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... NO WIDESPREAD SERIOUS LOCAL OR REGIONAL WATER SUPPLY, FIRE, NAVIGATION, OR RECREATIONAL IMPACTS ARE KNOWN, ALTHOUGH SOME SOME WATER DISTRICTS IN NORTH CAROLINA ARE ON EITHER MANDATORY OR VOLUNTARY RESTRICTIONS. SOME SMALL SPRINGS AND WELLS ARE STILL LOWER THAN NORMAL AROUND THE REGION, WHICH AFFECT LOCAL OR INDIVIDUAL WATER SUPPLIES. FOR INFORMATION ON LOCAL WATER RESTRICTIONS, PLEASE CALL YOUR LOCAL WATER BOARD. NO WIDESPREAD FIRE RESTRICTIONS ARE KNOWN TO EXIST. CONTACT LOCAL AUTHORITIES FOR FURTHER INFORMATION OR PERMITS. CLIMATE SUMMARY... RAINFALL AT INDIVIDUAL POINTS IS NOT ALWAYS AN ACCURATE REFLECTION OF AN AREA'S PRECIPITATION. RAINFALL OVER LARGE AREAS IS A MORE REALISTIC REPRESENTATION A REGION'S RAIN SITUATION. BELOW ARE THE DATA FOR THE MAIN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OBSERVATION POINTS FOR THE PERIOD STARTING JANUARY 1, 2007. THE DATA GO THROUGH MIDNIGHT THURSDAY, JUNE 26, 2008: SITE RAIN NORM DEFICIT %NORM CHATTANOOGA 60.40 83.03 -22.63 73 KNOXVILLE 55.27 74.24 -18.97 74 OAK RIDGE 58.58 81.16 -20.87 72 TRI-CITIES 38.88 63.21 -24.33 62 NWS MORRISTOWN 47.74 69.35 -21.61 69 IN TOTAL OVER LARGE AREAS SUCH AS RESERVOIR DRAINAGE BASINS IS A MUCH BETTER INDICATOR OF AN AREA'S "RAIN HEALTH" THAN SIMPLE POINT TOTALS. BELOW ARE THE DATA FOR THE TVA BASINS IN THE UPPER TENNESSEE RIVER DRAINAGE FOR THE PERIOD STARTING JANUARY 1, 2007. THE DATA GO THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY, JUNE 27, 2008: BASIN RAIN NORM DEFICIT %NORM SOUTH HOLSTON 49.53 66.03 -16.50 75 WATAUGA 50.52 69.60 -19.08 73 BOONE 46.52 67.79 -21.27 69 CHEROKEE 47.28 65.91 -18.63 72 DOUGLAS 49.84 70.21 -20.37 71 FONTANA 63.13 89.04 -25.91 71 NORRIS 49.36 69.07 -19.71 71 MELTON HILL 54.21 75.09 -20.88 72 CHATUGE 54.63 82.23 -27.60 66 NOTTELY 60.32 82.42 -22.10 73 HIWASSEE 56.96 86.42 -29.46 66 FT. LOUDOUN/TELLICO 49.25 73.68 -24.43 67 WATTS BAR 56.55 77.59 -21.04 73 CHICKAMAUGA 49.30 80.34 -31.04 61 NICKAJACK 48.11 81.32 -33.21 59 GUNTERSVILLE 47.30 82.71 -35.41 57 TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION DURING THE LAST WEEK HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEK, WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THE MOST ABOVE. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... THROUGH ABOUT JULY 3, GENERAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL (WHICH MEANS ROUGHLY HOT AND DRY) FOR THE REGION AS A WHOLE. INDIVIDUAL LOCATIONS MAY VARY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, JUNE 28 AND 29. AS IS THE USUAL CASE WITH SUMMERTIME RAIN, SOME PLACES WILL GET IT AND SOME WILL NOT. THE PERIOD FROM JULY 3 TO JULY 6 IS EXPECTED TO HOT AND DRY, OVERALL. FROM JULY 7 TO JULY 10, CONDITIONS WILL BE HOT WITH ABOUT NORMAL RAIN FOR THE PERIOD, WHICH MEANS HIT AND MISS THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR THE REST OF JULY THROUGH SEPTEMBER, CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE FOR CLOSE TO NORMAL AVERAGES FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL. THE RAMIFICATIONS OF THIS OUTLOOK IS THAT NORMAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IS EXPECTED. THIS MEANS DRYING OUT OF THE SOILS, AND ADDED STRESS ON PLANTS. THE FORECAST IS FOR THE DROUGHT TO PERSIST. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... DURING THE SECOND HALF OF JUNE, STREAMS IN THE REGION EXPERIENCED A GENERAL DROP IN WATER VOLUME DUE TO SPORADIC RAINS FOR THE SEASON. SOME PLACES HAVE RECEIVED NO RAIN IN THE LAST WEEK. SMALL STREAMS ARE GENERALLY IN THE BOTTOM TEN PERCENT OF STREAMFLOW FOR THE DATE IN HISTORY. A FEW, ESPECIALLY THOSE FLOWING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS, ARE AT RECORD LOW LEVELS. TOPSOIL HAS DRIED OUT CONSIDERABLY SINCE LAST WEEK. RESERVOIRS ARE FILLING MORE SLOWLY THAN NORMAL. THE OUTLOOK FOR LARGE TRIBUTARIES OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER THROUGH MID SUMMER IS FOR A LESS THAN NORMAL CHANCE OF FLOODING. THIS WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER THE LONG TERM AND THE NUMBER OF HEAVY RAIN EVENTS IN THE PERIOD. BUT IT WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE HYDROGRAPHY OF THE INDIVIDUAL STREAM. THINGS LIKE LOCAL GEOGRAPHY, WHETHER SINKHOLES ACCOUNT FOR MUCH UNDERGROUND STORAGE, LOCAL LAND USE, FLORA, AND SO FORTH, WILL ALSO MAKE A DIFFERENCE. TROPICAL STORM SEASON IS UNDERWAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH OCTOBER. THE PASSAGE OF A FEW SUCH STORMS THROUGH THE REGION, WITHOUT DOING ACTUAL DAMAGE, WOULD GREATLY BENEFIT STREAMS, RESERVOIRS, AND AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON OR BEFORE JULY 18, 2008 DEPENDING ON THE SITUATION. IF NO LARGE SCALE CHANGES OCCUR IN THE DROUGHT SITUATION, IT WILL BE LATER THAN SOONER. WE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION AND KEEP YOU ABREAST. RELATED WEB SITES...
FOR ONE-STOP SHOPPING ON THE DROUGHT IN THE REGION GO TO...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mrx/hydro/drought07/main.php
OR YOU CAN GO TO...
http://www.weather.gov/
THEN CLICK ON THE EAST TENNESSEE REGION, AND THEN CLICK ON THE DROUGHT INFORMATION LINK AT THE BOTTOM OF THE MORRISTOWN, TENNESSEE HOME PAGE. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LAKES LEVELS, STREAMFLOWS, AND RAINFALL IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY SYSTEM YOU MAY ALSO VISIT...
http://www.tva.gov/
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON LAKES LEVELS, STREAMFLOWS, AND RAINFALL IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY SYSTEM. STREAMFLOW DATA CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED FROM THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY AT...
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt/
AND THEN CLICKING ON YOUR STATE OF INTEREST. ADDITIONAL LONG TERM STREAMFLOW FORECASTS CAN BE OBTAINED AT THE NWS MORRISTOWN "ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES" WEBSITE AT
http://ahps.srh.noaa.gov/index.php?wfo=mrx
FOR SPECIFIC DATA, DROUGHT INDICES, AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT PICTURE WITH CLICKABLE ZOOMING, GO TO...
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/ ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... APPRECIATION FOR THE DATA IN THIS DOCUMENT GO TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY (TVA), UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS), THE STATES OF TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA, THE COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA, THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE), THE NATIONAL PARK SERVICE (NPS), THE NATIONAL FOREST SERVICE (NFS), THE UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA AT LINCOLN FOR HOSTING THE DROUGHT MONITOR WEBSITE, AND NUMEROUS COUNTY AND CITY OFFICIALS. ALSO, THANKS TO VARIOUS MEDIA OUTLETS INCLUDING TELEVISION AND RADIO STATIONS AND NEWSPAPERS, FOR ASKING THE QUESTIONS THE DRIVE THE GATHERING OF DATA AND INFORMATION ON DROUGHT IMPACTS. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... FOR MORE INFORMATION OR FOR MEDIA INTERVIEWS PLEASE CONTACT: BRIAN BOYD SENIOR SERVICE HYDROLOGIST/METEOROLOGIST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 5974 COMMERCE BLVD. MORRISTOWN, TN 37814 423-586-1964 (MEDIA ONLY; FOR IMMEDIATE RESPONSE) 423-586-2296 (ALL OTHER CALLS; MAY GET VOICE MAIL) 423-586-6429 (FOR IMMEDIATE RESPONSE, NON-MEDIA CALLS, IF 2296 IS NOT AVAILABLE) EMAIL: Brian.Boyd@noaa.gov WEBSITE: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mrx/ NOTE: IN THE EVENT THE ABOVE PERSON IS NOT AVAILABLE, OTHER STAFF MEMBERS WILL BE ABLE TO HELP YOU