DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 100 AM PDT SAT AUG 16 2008
...DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
SYNOPSIS... ON JUNE 4TH...CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER PROCLAIMED A STATEWIDE DROUGHT. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS INDICATING A SEVERE DROUGHT...CLASSIFICATION D2...IN THE HIGH DESERT PORTION OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...INCLUDING VICTORVILLE...THE APPLE VALLEY...AND PHELAN. THE REMAINDER OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA IS CLASSIFIED AS MODERATE DROUGHT.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... AT THIS TIME...A FEW AGENCIES ARE BEGINNING TO URGE WATER USERS TO CONSERVE WHERE POSSIBLE...AND SOME LOCAL MANDATORY CUTBACKS FOR FARMERS HAVE ALREADY BEEN IMPLEMENTED. A STAGE ONE WATER SHORTAGE EMERGENCY HAS BEEN DECLARED IN SAN DIEGO...URGING RESIDENTS TO VOLUNTARILY CONSERVE OR FACE MANDATORY CUTBACKS NEXT YEAR.
CLIMATE SUMMARY... THE 2006-2007 SEASON WAS VERY DRY FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...WHILE THE 2007-2008 SEASON WAS NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS PAST WINTER FELL PRIOR TO FEBRUARY. SINCE MAY...OUR STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI) FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDING JULY HAS IMPROVED FROM -1 TO NEAR 0...SINCE RAINFALL HAS BEEN CLOSE TO...OR ABOVE NORMAL. A NEGATIVE VALUE INDICATES DROUGHT.
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK THROUGH OCTOBER SHOWS NO DEFINITIVE TRENDS. THE AUGUST THROUGH OCTOBER FORECAST IS INDICATING EQUAL CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL...NORMAL...AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR THE REGION IS SIMILAR...WITH NO DEVIATION FROM THE NORMAL.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS...BUT RAINFALL HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD. THE WEAK MONSOONAL PATTERN THROUGH MID-AUGUST IS INDICATED TO END...WITH DRY WEATHER DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...THIS IS THE DRY SEASON...SO NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS CONSIDERED NORMAL. IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS HOWEVER...THIS IS TYPICALLY MONSOON SEASON. SO PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONSIDERED NORMAL. MOST LOCAL RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE AT LOW FLOW...OR CARRY LITTLE IF ANY WATER...EXCEPT DURING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHEN INTENSE DOWNPOURS CREATE LOCALLY HEAVY RUNOFF FROM THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
THE U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK CALLS FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OR INTENSIFY THROUGH OCTOBER.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED BY SEPTEMBER 17TH...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY...IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.
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RELATED WEBSITES... CALIFORNIA DATA EXCHANGE CENTER:HTTP://CDEC.WATER.CA.GOV/ CALIFORNIA NEVADA RIVER FORECAST CENTER:HTTP://WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/ DROUGHT MONITOR:HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML CALIFORNIA DROUGHT PAGE: HTTP://WATERSUPPLYCONDITIONS.WATER.CA.GOV/ CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO: HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/SGX/
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER DROUGHT MONITOR NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES CALIFORNIA STATE CLIMATOLOGIST US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS SOUTHERN DISTRICT
QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS...PLEASE REFER ALL QUESTIONS TO W-SGX.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV.
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JAD