DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 207 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008 ...DRY CONDITIONS DETERIORATE PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM)...ISSUED THROUGH THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER ON JUNE 10...DEPICTS EXTREME AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. THIS AREA HAS MISSED MUCH OF THE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER RAINS...AND HAS ACCUMULATED RAINFALL DEFICITS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE LAST 90 DAYS. THE USDM SHOWS MODERATE TO SEVERE AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY...REMAINING PARTS OF THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE DEPICTED ACROSS THE REST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... FIRE DANGER IMPACTS. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO THREATEN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AS DRYING WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN. AS OF JUNE 12...THE FOLLOWING WEST CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES SUPPORT A COUNTY WIDE OUTDOOR BURN BAN. COLEMAN...CONCHO...CROCKETT...KIMBLE...MENARD...STERLING AND SUTTON. THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) AS A SYSTEM FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR. IT IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO 800...WITH 0 REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL. AS OF JUNE 11...THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX SHOWS THAT AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU FALL WITHIN THE 600 TO 700 RANGE. THIS RANGE IS OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH MORE SEVERE DROUGHT AND INCREASED WILDFIRE OCCURRENCE... INTENSE DEEP BURNING FIRES WITH SIGNIFICANT DOWNWIND SPOTTING CAN BE EXPECTED...LIVE FUELS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED TO BURN ACTIVELY AT THESE LEVELS. MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY FALL WITHIN THE 400 TO 600 RANGE WHICH IS CHARACTERIZED AS TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER... EARLY FALL. IN THIS RANGE...LOWER LITTER AND DUFF LAYERS ACTIVELY CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE INTENSITY AND WILL BURN ACTIVELY. NOTE THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM DAY TO DAY AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY. THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE ADVISES TO WATCH OUT FOR KEY WEATHER THRESHOLDS OF WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 25 PERCENT. WHEN THESE THRESHOLDS ARE EXCEEDED...EXPECT THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS. ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS CROP WEATHER REPORT ISSUED JUNE 10 BY THE TEXAS A&M AGRICULTURE PROGRAM...THE FOLLOWING AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS WERE NOTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... EXTREMELY HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUED DEPLETING SOIL MOISTURE...TEMPERATURES BROKE LONG STANDING RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BURN BANS WERE PUT IN PLACE...COTTON PLANTING CONTINUED IN SOME COUNTIES...HAY BALING WAS UNDER WAY...THE OAT AND WHEAT HARVESTS WERE IN FULL SWING WITH GOOD YIELDS...WATER LEVELS IN STOCK TANKS DROPPED... RANGE AND PASTURE GRASSES WERE DRYING UP AND GROWTH HAS SLOWED BUT LIVESTOCK WERE STILL IN GOOD CONDITION. CLIMATE SUMMARY... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS DURING MAY BROUGHT VALUABLE MOISTURE TO AREAS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY, SOUTHERN HEARTLAND AND PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. MUCH OF THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY RECEIVED LESS THAN HALF OF AN INCH OF RAIN DURING THE MONTH. THESE AREAS ARE DRYING QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES AVERAGED ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MONTH. IN SAN ANGELO, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES REACHED THE UPPER NINETIES FOR THIRTEEN DAYS DURING THE MONTH (SIX DAYS RECORDED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100 DEGREES). THE FOLLOWING REMARKS SUMMARIZE THE MAY AND YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL AT ABILENE...SAN ANGELO AND JUNCTION... IN ABILENE...2.40 INCHES OF RAIN WAS REPORTED IN MAY WHICH WAS 0.43 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL MONTHLY AMOUNT OF 2.83 INCHES. FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY THROUGH JUNE 12...ABILENE RECEIVED 10.43 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH WAS 1.10 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. IN SAN ANGELO...1.01 INCHES OF RAIN WAS REPORTED IN MAY WHICH WAS 2.08 INCHES BELOW THE NORMAL MONTHLY AMOUNT OF 3.09 INCHES. FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY THROUGH JUNE 12...SAN ANGELO RECEIVED 6.96 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH WAS 1.89 INCHES BELOW THE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. IN JUNCTION...0.42 OF AN INCH OF RAIN WAS REPORTED IN MAY. THE NORMAL MONTHLY RAINFALL FOR MAY IN JUNCTION IS ABOUT 3.25 TO 3.50 INCHES. FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY THROUGH MAY...JUNCTION RECEIVED 3.19 INCHES OF RAIN. NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY THROUGH MAY IN JUNCTION IS ABOUT 9.00 INCHES. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK FOR JUNE THROUGH AUGUST INDICATES THAT THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...NEAR AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CLIMATE TRENDS AND INDICATIONS OF WEAKENING LA NINA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD JUNE THROUGH AUGUST. THE LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD JUNE THROUGH AUGUST SHOWS THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS INCLUDING THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... THE TYPICAL HOT AND DRY SUMMER TIME CONDITIONS BRING CONCERN THAT OUR SURFACE WATER SUPPLIES WILL RAPIDLY DEPRECIATE. ACCORDING TO THE USGS WATERWATCH...FLOWS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF JUNE 12... / CURRENT CONSERVATION CURRENT % / ELEVATION CAPACITY CAPACITY CONSERVATION RESERVOIR (FT) (AC-FT) (AC-FT) CAPACITY FORT PHANTOM HILL 1635.34 70036 67870 97 LAKE STAMFORD 1415.21 51570 43910 85 HUBBARD CREEK 1182.04 318070 304050 96 HORDS CREEK LAKE 1896.67 8112 4140 73 LAKE BROWNWOOD 1422.36 131428 117260 89 E.V. SPENCE 1847.04 517272 66040 13 O.C. FISHER 1867.86 119200 8460 7 O.H. IVIE 1539.95 554340 360920 65 TWIN BUTTES (N+S) 1922.47 186200 79040 42 LAKE NASWORTHY 1870.82 10108 8240 82 NEXT ISSUANCE... THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS. RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES:
OUR LOCAL DROUGHT WEB PAGE...
http://www.srh.weather.gov/sjt/html/climate/drought.html
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...
http://www.drought.noaa.gov/
OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST...
http://www.met.tamu.edu/osc/
NWS...
http://weather.gov/water/
USGS...
http://water.usgs.gov/
USACE...
http://www.mvr.usace.army.mil/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 7654 KNICKERBOCKER ROAD SAN ANGELO TEXAS 76904 PHONE: 325-944-9445 NWS.sanangelo@noaa.gov