National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH 1004 AM EDT Wednesday November 1 2017 THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER .WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK... Streamflows are forecast to be near normal for start of November for most of the Ohio Valley. Above normal flows are forecast across Ohio, Kentucky and West Virginia. Streamflows will trend towards above normal for the second half of the month for the entire Ohio Valley. ..................................................................... .HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL... Drought conditions are not expected to develop. Flood potential will increase as the month progresses. ..................................................................... .PAST 30 DAY HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL REVIEW... RAINFALL DEPARTURES... Areas north of the Ohio River received 2 to 8 inches of rainfall (90 to 200 percent of normal). South of the Ohio River, 3 to 10 inches fell (75 to 300 percent of normal). The highest amounts of 8 to 10 inches fell in a band across west central Kentucky. The New River basin also received 6 to 10 inches. The driest locations were found in northwest Ohio and northeast Indiana. Amounts across those locations were 2 to 4 inches. http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/images/dynamic/latest30day.jpeg SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS... Soil moisture conditions were generally near normal across West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, western Pennsylvania, southeastern Illinois and southwestern New York. Across far southern Ohio, Kentucky and middle Tennessee soil moisture conditions were in the 70th to 95th percentiles. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS... Across Ohio and Indiana, streamflows are normal to above normal. Much above normal values can be found for most of of the remainder of the region. Below normal streamflow can be found across northeast Ohio. http://watermonitor.gov ..................................................................... .ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR NOVEMBER... TELECONNECTION/OSCILLATION PATTERN ARCTIC OSCILLATION Positive = normal trending to above normal NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION Positive = normal trending to above normal PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION Negative = normal trending to above normal ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION Neutral trending towards La Nina = normal trending to above normal http://www.cpc.noaa.gov ..................................................................... .TECHNICAL DISCUSSION... Streamflows for the month of November will start near normal and will become above normal across Ohio, Kentucky and West Virginia. Streamflows will trend towards above normal for the second half of the month for the entire Ohio Valley. All teleconnection/oscillation patterns and the latest CFS model are pointing towards above normal precipitation as we approach the month of December. This will allow for streamflows to increase. ....................................................................... VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A 60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE $$