National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH 1202 PM EST Thursday December 28 2017 THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF January ...WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK for January... Streamflows are expected to be above normal across portions of Kentucky and middle Tennessee. With a large snowpack in place across the Lake Erie snow belt, flood potential is above normal. Elsewhere, streamflows are forecast to be near normal. ..................................................................... ...HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL... Flood potential will be near normal for most of the Ohio Valley. Flood potential is elevated across the Lake Erie snow belt where a large snowpack exists. Flood potential is also slightly elevated across portions of Kentucky and middle Tennessee where heavy rains fell before Christmas. Drought conditions are not expected. ..................................................................... ...December HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL REVIEW... The highest amounts of liquid precipitation fell across the Lake Erie snowbelt. 6 to 7 inches water equivalent fell near Erie Pennsylvania (close to 200 percent of normal). Close to 7 inches of rain fell across Middle Tennessee (around 150 percent of normal). Kentucky, southern Ohio, western Pennsylvania and West Virginia received 2 to 4 inches of rain (75 to 110 percent of normal). Across the remainder of Ohio, Indiana and southeastern Illinois received 1 to 2 inches (25 to 70 percent of normal). http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/images/dynamic/latest30day.jpeg ...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS... Soil moisture is in the 70th to 90th percentile across Ohio, western Pennsylvania and pockets in Tennessee and Kentucky. Elsewhere, soil moisture is near normal. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml ...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS... Current streamflow conditions are normal across a good chunk of the Ohio Valley. Pockets of above normal exist across northern Ohio. The northern half of Indiana has below normal streamflows. http://watermonitor.gov ..................................................................... ...ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR January... ARCTIC OSCILLATION neutral = average NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION neutral trending positive = wetter PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION negative = wetter Weak La Nina = wetter http://www.cpc.noaa.gov ..................................................................... ...Summary... The start of January will be fairly dry and cold across most of the Ohio Valley. The snowpack across Lake Erie will build as more snow is expected in the coming days. The weather pattern will become more active the second half of January. ....................................................................... VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A 60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE $$