FFMP Provides Advance Warning

Flash Flood and Monitoring Prediction (FFMP) played a major role in preparing 5 eastern Kentucky counties with the hydrologic information they needed to prepare for flooding during the long February 14-17, 2003,weekend. FFMP, a component of the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) zeroed on the precise creeks where flash flooding would occur mitigating the loss of life and property.

A flash flood event evolved into area-wide flooding Saturday, February 15. Mike Lewis (Science and Operations Officer) from the National Weather Service Forecast Office (WFO) in Jackson, KY issued flash flood warnings Saturday morning based on the FFMP and other hydrologic applications as an influx of moisture surged across the region. FFMP isolated areas where the estimated precipitation exceeded the 1 hour flash flood guidance. The staff at the Jackson WFO was able to analyze and monitor the storm and utilize FFMP and other AHPS applications to generate short-term forecasts and warning guidance for specific sub-basins and tributaries.

"The terrain is complex in Kentucky," stated Lewis. "I used the [FFMP] tools to key in which streams and creeks would have the greatest impact. Without FFMP, I wouldn't have been able to narrow it down to the precise location where flooding would occur."

The local rescue squad rescued nearly 50 people from rising water at several locations throughout Floyd County. Eddie Patton, Director for Disaster Emergency Services for Floyd, County, said, "Because the NWS told us when, where, and how high the rivers would crest, we were able to redirect our emergency services to locations that needed the most help." The Floyd emergency services made timely mitigating decisions based, in part, on the Jackson AHPS webpage. County officials said this was the smoothest performance they had ever experienced and the flow of information was far and above the best yet.

Eric Thomas, Assistant Director East Kentucky Science Center, Prestonsburg, KY expressed similar appreciation to the NWS in the following letter to the Jackson WFO:

"I would like to take this opportunity to thank the staff of the Jackson, KY National Weather Service Office for all of their hard work. I began monitoring the river stage about 11:30 PM on the 15th, and after referring to the Jackson NWS website (especially the AHPS page) and talking by phone to the on-duty forecaster, we decided shortly after midnight to begin moving our belongings from the ground floor to the second floor of the house. We ended with very minimal property loss and normal flood related damage to the structure of my mother's home as a result of this flooding event.

Let me state at this time that the AHPS webpage was a critical part of my decision making process. Being able to see the actual river stage, follow the graph to see the rate the river is rising, and the projected crest elevation and projected time of crest were very crucial elements in deciding what to move and where to move it. I should also say that during the time between midnight and about 6:00 am, I made about four calls to the Jackson NWS office getting updated stage, crest, and rate of rise information. The on-duty forecaster who answered my calls was always very courteous and generous with the information I requested. I found that the information received was of a truly higher caliber than what was coming from local television and radio stations.

Again, on behalf of my wife, my mother, and myself thanks again to the Jackson National Weather Service Staff for all of their hard work over the last week. I doubt we would have been able to come through this time with such a minimal loss of property without the assistance the staff of the Jackson National Weather Service gave to us."

AHPS is the NWS' frontline solution to provide improved river and flood forecasting and water information across America. AHPS builds upon the NWS' long history of around-the-clock forecasting excellence bridging past successes with new sciences and technologies of the 21st century. AHPS includes state-of-the-science forecasting tools covering short-fused flash floods observations from highly sophisticated Doppler radars, satellites, and a network of automated surface observing stations.

Because every minute counts, AHPS provides the information community leaders and business owners will need to make better life and cost saving decisions about evacuating people or moving property before a flood occurs. Learn more about AHPS at http://weather.gov/rivers_tab.php.

Larry Wenzel, 301-713-0006, x147
Larry.Wenzel@noaa.gov