Southeast River Forecast Center Provides Critical Streamflow Information

October 2007

The National Weather Service Southeast River Forecast Center (SERFC) has been providing incident support services across the southeast United States in the midst of the current severe drought. Briefings were provided to constituents along the Lower Pee Dee River Watershed in South Carolina and the Savannah River along the Georgia/South Carolina Line.

On September 28, 2007, in response to the severe drought gripping the southeast United States , Department of National Resources Director Dr. Carol Couch ordered the tightest watering restrictions available to her under the state's drought plan, banning virtually all residential outdoor watering in metro Atlanta and all of North Georgia . This is a "Stage 4" drought action - the highest level.

“Todd Hamill, SERFC Senior Hydrologist and Water Resources Manager and other staff members have been providing briefings via conference calls, a multimedia Water Resources Outlook product, and on-site coordination visits.”  stated John Feldt, Hydrologist-in-Charge at the SERFC.

Todd Hamill has been working closely with Dr. David Stooksbury (Georgia State Climatologist) on several water issues.  Athens Georgia is having a critical water shortage and could run out of water by mid November.  Mr. Hamill has been producing custom ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) runs for this river location.  Based in part on information from these ESP runs, Director Couch signed an executive order in late September taking emergency actions to transfer water resources to this county.

At a recent State of Georgia Drought Response Committee meeting, Dr. Stooksbury showed another ESP run to the group. Director Couch specifically asked several questions about it.  It showed that there was only a 20% (or less) probability of reaching normal levels along critical rivers (by mid November). The Level-4 ban enacted was based, in part, on this information.

“I was quite pleased to see some very major decisions that will impact a large population were based in part on NWS AHPS information” stated Feldt.