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Winter storm conditions possible for parts of Central Plains on Saturday

Widespread precipitation, including heavy snow, will push farther east on Saturday east across the central and southern Rockies. Snow will extend from the Rockies into the central High Plains by late Saturday, spreading farther east on Sunday, with moderate to heavy snows and gusty winds expected across portions of South Dakota and Minnesota by the end of the weekend. Read More >

 

PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook

The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an expirimental consenus forecast, produced monthly for 14 stations within Hawaii and the USAPI. The PEAC Outlook uses data from the following 7 models: UKMONASA GMAOECMWFIRINCEP Constructed AnalogNCEP Coupled Model and APCC MME.

The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is a probabalistic forecast displayed in tercile form (3 categories). The three categories represent the chances of an event falling into the "Below Average", "Near Average" and "Above Average" categories, respectively. For example, a seasonal rainfall forecast of 20:30:50 should be interpreted as follows: There is a 20% chance of "Below Average" rainfall for the season; a 30% chance of "Near Average" rainfall for the season; and a 50% chance of "Above Average" rainfall for the season.

For more information on terciles, click here.

 


January - February - March (JFM) 2018

Model:
Final Outlook
Final Probabilities
 
Republic of Palau
 

Koror

L 7 ° 22' N,
λ 134° 32' E
Above
Above
Avg-Above
Avg
Avg-Above
Above
Above
Above
Avg-Above
20:40:40
 
Federated States of Micronesia
 
Yap
L 9° 29' N,
λ 138° 05' E
Above
Above
Above
Avg
Above
Above
Above
Above
Average
30:40:30
Chuuk
L 7° 28' N,
λ 151° 51' E
Above
Above
Above
Avg-Below
Above
Avg
Avg
Above
Avg-Above
30:35:35
Pohnpei
L 6 ° 59' N,
λ 158° 12' E
Avg-Above
Above
Above
Below
Above
Avg
Avg
Above
Avg-Above
30:35:35
Kosrae
L 5 ° 21' N,
λ 162° 57' E
Avg
Above
Above
Below
Above
Avg
Avg
Clim
Avg-Above
30:35:35
 
Republic of the Marshall Islands
 
Kwajalein
L 8 ° 43' N,
λ 167° 44' E
Avg
Above
Above
Below
Above
Avg
Below
Above
Average
30:40:30
Majuro
L 7° 04' N,
λ 171° 17' E
Avg-Above
Above
Avg-Above
Below
Avg-Above
Below
Below
Above
Avg-Above
30:35:35
 
Guam and CNMI
 
Guam
L 13 ° 29' N,
λ 144° 48' E
Above
Above
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
Above
Above
Above
Average
30:40:30
Saipan
L 15 ° 06' N,
λ 145° 48' E
Above
Above
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
Above
Above
Average
30:40:30
 
American Samoa
 
Pago Pago
L 14 ° 20' S,
λ 170° 43' E
Avg-Above
Above
Avg-Above
Avg
Avg-Above
Avg
Avg
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
30:35:35
 
State of Hawaii
 
Lihue
L 21 ° 59' N,
λ 159 ° 20' E
Avg
Above
Avg-Above
Avg
Avg-Above
Above
Avg
Above
Avg-Above
30:35:35
Honolulu
L 21 ° 19' N,
λ 157° 56' W
Avg
Above
Avg-Above
Avg
Avg-Above
Above
Avg
Above
Average
30:40:30
Kahului
L 20 ° 54' N,
λ 156° 26' E
Avg
Above
Avg-Above
Avg
Avg-Above
Above
Below
Above
Avg-Above
30:35:35
Hilo
L 19 ° 43' N,
λ 155° 03' E
Avg
Above
Avg-Above
Avg
Avg-Above
Above
Below
Avg-Above
Avg-Above
30:35:35

 


Forecast Discussion

Koror: Rainfall for January - February - March 2018 is expected to be Average or Average Above for Koror. There is a 20% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 23.9 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 23.9 inches and 32.43 inches; and a 40% chance that rainfall will be greater than 32.43 inches.

Yap: Rainfall for January - February - March 2018 is expected to be Average for Yap. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 14.98 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 14.98 inches and 21.91 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 21.91 inches.

Chuuk: Rainfall for January - February - March 2018 is expected to be Average or Average Above for Chuuk. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 22.35 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 22.35 inches and 31.31 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 33.31 inches.

Pohnpei: Rainfall for January - February - March 2018 is expected to be Average or Average Above for Pohnpei. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 34.4 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 34.4 inches and 43.28 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 43.28 inches.

Kosrae: Rainfall for January - February - March 2018 is expected to be Average or Average Above for Kosrae. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 43.67 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 43.67 inches and 53.33 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 53.33 inches.

Kwajalein: Rainfall for January - February - March 2018 is expected to be Average for Kwajalein. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 7.24 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 7.24 inches and 11.19 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 11.19 inches.

Majuro: Rainfall for January - February - March 2018 is expected to be Average or Average Above for Majuro.There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 20.29 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 20.29 inches and 24.26 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 24.26 inches.

Guam: Rainfall for January - February - March 2018 is expected to be Average for Guam. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 8.52 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 8.52 inches and 11.35 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 11.35 inches.

Saipan: Rainfall for January - February - March 2018 is expected to be Average for Saipan. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 6.98 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 6.98 inches and 9.47 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 9.47 inches.

Pago Pago: Rainfall for January - February - March 2018 is expected to be Average or Average Above for Pago Pago. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 35.08 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 35.08 inches and 42.92 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 42.92 inches.

Lihue: Rainfall for January - February - March 2018 is expected to be Average or Average Above for Lihue. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 6.52 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 6.52 inches and 13.75 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 13.75 inches.

Honolulu: Rainfall for January - February - March 2018 is expected to be Average for Honolulu. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 2.08 inches; a 40% chance that rainfall will be between 2.08 inches and 7.8 inches; and a 30% chance that rainfall will be greater than 7.8 inches.

Kahului: Rainfall for January - February - March 2018 is expected to be Average or Average Above for Kahului. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 4.24 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 4.24 inches and 8.23 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 8.23 inches.

Hilo: Rainfall for January - February - March 2018 is expected to be Average or Above Average for Hilo. There is a 30% chance that rainfall during the JFM season will be less than 22 inches; a 35% chance that rainfall will be between 22 inches and 44.53 inches; and a 35% chance that rainfall will be greater than 44.53 inches.


The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an experimental consensus forecast, produced monthly by the Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center for 14 stations within Hawaii and the USAPI. Tercile cut-offs for each location and season are based on Pacific Rainfall Climatologies (Climate Prediction Center) 1981-2010. The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook for January - February - March (JFM) 2018 was made available on 11 January 2018.