National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce


000
FXZS60 NSTU 120108
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago AS
208 PM SST Mon Dec 11 2017

.Short term...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Latest model runs show the main
convergence zone axis north of the area. This weather feature is
connected to a low pressure system to the south. As this low
pressure system moves further south, the chances for the main axis
to move back across the islands are high. Further north of this
axis is a ridge remaining nearly stationary blocking the axis from
moving further north. Therefore...expect variable winds and
scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms to
persist throughout the short term forecast period.

.Long term...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...The aforementioned convergence zone axis
will move to the north Thursday and remaining nearly stationary
through the weekend. The GFS models are hinting at moving the main
convergence axis back across the islands with embedded lows by
the new week. Variable winds and isolated to scattered showers
will persist in the beginning of the long term forecast. Expect
weather features to change drastically due to the active convergence
zone in the latter part of the forecast. Therefore...will
continue to monitor this event as the week progresses.

&&

.Marine...
Wave Watch III model solutions show combined seas of 5 to 7 feet
across the Samoan Islands through Tuesday afternoon. The PacIOOs
Aunu`u wave buoy is reporting heights of 8 to 10 feet with periods
of 9 to 12 seconds. Sea heights are expected to gradually subside
to 4 to 6 feet by Tuesday afternoon before building to 5 to 7 feet
Saturday. Therefore...will continue the advisories for small
crafts and high surfs through Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
A High surf advisory remains in effect through Tuesday afternoon.
A small craft advisory remains in effect through Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

$$

JT