National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Severe Weather and Flooding From Portions of the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic

A potent spring storm system with abundant moisture will bring a chance of significant severe weather and heavy rain today into tonight. Damaging winds, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across the Tennessee Valley, middle Ohio Valley, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Heavy rain and flooding are possible from the Ozarks to the Tennessee Valley. Read More >

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Last Map Update: Sat, May. 27, 2017 at 8:19:37 pm CDT

National Weather Service Tulsa, OKNational Weather Service Little Rock, ARNational Weather Service Memphis, TN
National Weather Service Fort Worth/Dallas, TXZoom
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National Weather Service Jackson, Mississippi
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston, TXNational Weather Service Lake Charles, LANational Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge

 

A complex weather pattern shaping up across the central and southern sections of the country on the surface and aloft will combine with available moisture to produce strong to severe thunderstorms with a range of severe parameters today and overnight. A wavy, quasi-stationary frontal zone from VA to OH then west-southwest across southern IL and central MO. A cold front from northwestern IA across eastern/south-central NE to northeastern NM. A wavy dry-line was from the eastern TX Panhandle to the Big bend region. The dry-line will move east today to central/southern OK and west-central TX. The cold front will overtake the dry and an outflow boundary from northwest- southeast through the overnight hours, will reach eastern MO and southwest through southwest TX. By late evening, a swath of convection should extend from the Ohio Valley into southern OK and perhaps north TX.
Large hail and wind damage will be possible across parts of the southern Plains and Arklatex. West to southwest mid-level flow is forecast to be in place on Sunday as a cold front advances southeastward across the southern Plains and Arklatex. As surface heating takes place along and ahead of the front on Sunday, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development should take place during the afternoon from the Texas Hill Country northeastward into the Arklatex. Surface dew-points ahead of the front should be in the upper 60s to lower 70s F resulting in moderate to strong instability by afternoon.
An upper level trough will be gradually pushing east towards the Four-State Region. On the surface an associated cold front will move across southeast OK and northeast TX late tonight/early Sunday morning, and it will overtake a dry line extending from the same surface low pressure system over the Southern plains and will interact with a moist and unstable air- mass. As a result, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible with large hail, damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes being the primary threats., and mainly over the Northwest sections of the forecast area. With all thunderstorms deadly lightning and heavy rain will be possible.
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as measured wind gusts to at least 58 MPH, and/or hail to at least one inch in diameter, and /or a tornado. All thunderstorm categories imply lightning and the potential for flooding. Categories are also tied to the probability of a severe weather event within 25 miles of your location.
Climate Data for 05/27/2017

 

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