000
FXUS64 KSHV 190236
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
936 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
The center of a 1027mb sfc ridge late this evening was located
across Eastern Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas and while the
pressure gradient in advance of this ridge has continued to
decouple, we continue to see light north to northeast winds attm.
This coupled with very high/thin cirrus across the southern 2/3rds
of our region has resulted in ambient hourly temperatures slightly
higher than our diurnal forecast temperature trend would otherwise
suggest. As we go through the remainder of the night, this surface
ridge should continue to slowly shift south and east into the I-20
Corridor by sunrise in the morning. 00z NAM output suggests that
the thin cirrus will likely hang around at least the southwest
half of our region through the night but the light winds may help
to counter act that with the radiational cooling.
For the forecast update, did not make any changes to forecast min
temperatures but did adjust sky grids slightly to account for the
thin cirrus. Also slowed the diurnal temperatures downward fall
slightly and also added areas of frost to the grids.
Update has been sent...13.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Surface high pressure building across the region will continue
to advect cold air areawide. A late season light freeze is
expected overnight across southwest Arkansas, northeast Texas,
southeast Oklahoma and parts of north Louisiana. Could see low
temperatures ranging from the upper 20s across McCurtain county to
around the freezing mark of 32 degrees as far south as I-20.
Surface high to shift east on Tuesday allowing for south winds to
return shortly after daybreak becoming southwest during the
afternoon. Southerly flow will allow for temps and moisture to
gradually increase through the end of the short-term period
Tuesday night. High temperatures on Tuesday will average in the
mid 60s with overnight lows on Tuesday night in the low to mid
40s. /05/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Upper-level ridging to prevail through Wednesday allowing for dry
conditions areawide with temperatures on Wednesday approaching 70
degrees with overnight lows on Wednesday night in the lower 50s.
Pattern shift expected on Thursday as an upper-level low shifts
east and moves across the ArkLaTex. Instability across the region
is forecast to increase ahead of the low as upper-flow becomes
southwest. Additionally, low-level moisture advection ahead of a
surface dryline across east Texas will further aid in
destabilizing the environment enough to support increased
convection beginning Thursday morning and continuing through
Thursday night. The heaviest convection will mainly occur on
Thursday afternoon into the evening hours before convection
diminishes and exits the region to the east through the overnight
period. At this time, no severe weather is expected.
Weak northwest flow in the wake of the departing upper-low will
allow for dry conditions to prevail across the region through the
early part of the weekend. On Sunday, upper-flow to become
southwest, creating an environment conducive for mainly diurnally
driven showers and isolated thunderstorms. Under mostly cloudy
skies, temperatures through the weekend to range from highs in the
70s to lows in the lower 60s. /05/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
For the ArkLaTex terminals, just a few high clouds with our NW sfc
winds decoupling after sunset to VRB03KT or calm for the bulk of
the night. Canadian high pressure will slide right across the
midSouth tonight and calm the wind with some daybreak frost, and
sub-freezing E of I-49. As the high moves eastward, our winds
will back to SW for Tuesday less than 10KT. Clouds returning with
S/SE flow mid to late week with an upper low on approach with
showers & isold TS by Thurs, ending early on Fri with fropa. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 35 66 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 33 63 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 28 65 39 69 / 0 0 0 10
TXK 32 66 44 69 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 30 63 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 35 66 48 69 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 34 66 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 36 67 46 70 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006-012>014-
019>022.
OK...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077.
TX...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-138.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...24
000
FXUS64 KSHV 190236
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
936 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
The center of a 1027mb sfc ridge late this evening was located
across Eastern Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas and while the
pressure gradient in advance of this ridge has continued to
decouple, we continue to see light north to northeast winds attm.
This coupled with very high/thin cirrus across the southern 2/3rds
of our region has resulted in ambient hourly temperatures slightly
higher than our diurnal forecast temperature trend would otherwise
suggest. As we go through the remainder of the night, this surface
ridge should continue to slowly shift south and east into the I-20
Corridor by sunrise in the morning. 00z NAM output suggests that
the thin cirrus will likely hang around at least the southwest
half of our region through the night but the light winds may help
to counter act that with the radiational cooling.
For the forecast update, did not make any changes to forecast min
temperatures but did adjust sky grids slightly to account for the
thin cirrus. Also slowed the diurnal temperatures downward fall
slightly and also added areas of frost to the grids.
Update has been sent...13.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Surface high pressure building across the region will continue
to advect cold air areawide. A late season light freeze is
expected overnight across southwest Arkansas, northeast Texas,
southeast Oklahoma and parts of north Louisiana. Could see low
temperatures ranging from the upper 20s across McCurtain county to
around the freezing mark of 32 degrees as far south as I-20.
Surface high to shift east on Tuesday allowing for south winds to
return shortly after daybreak becoming southwest during the
afternoon. Southerly flow will allow for temps and moisture to
gradually increase through the end of the short-term period
Tuesday night. High temperatures on Tuesday will average in the
mid 60s with overnight lows on Tuesday night in the low to mid
40s. /05/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Upper-level ridging to prevail through Wednesday allowing for dry
conditions areawide with temperatures on Wednesday approaching 70
degrees with overnight lows on Wednesday night in the lower 50s.
Pattern shift expected on Thursday as an upper-level low shifts
east and moves across the ArkLaTex. Instability across the region
is forecast to increase ahead of the low as upper-flow becomes
southwest. Additionally, low-level moisture advection ahead of a
surface dryline across east Texas will further aid in
destabilizing the environment enough to support increased
convection beginning Thursday morning and continuing through
Thursday night. The heaviest convection will mainly occur on
Thursday afternoon into the evening hours before convection
diminishes and exits the region to the east through the overnight
period. At this time, no severe weather is expected.
Weak northwest flow in the wake of the departing upper-low will
allow for dry conditions to prevail across the region through the
early part of the weekend. On Sunday, upper-flow to become
southwest, creating an environment conducive for mainly diurnally
driven showers and isolated thunderstorms. Under mostly cloudy
skies, temperatures through the weekend to range from highs in the
70s to lows in the lower 60s. /05/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
For the ArkLaTex terminals, just a few high clouds with our NW sfc
winds decoupling after sunset to VRB03KT or calm for the bulk of
the night. Canadian high pressure will slide right across the
midSouth tonight and calm the wind with some daybreak frost, and
sub-freezing E of I-49. As the high moves eastward, our winds
will back to SW for Tuesday less than 10KT. Clouds returning with
S/SE flow mid to late week with an upper low on approach with
showers & isold TS by Thurs, ending early on Fri with fropa. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 35 66 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 33 63 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 28 65 39 69 / 0 0 0 10
TXK 32 66 44 69 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 30 63 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 35 66 48 69 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 34 66 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 36 67 46 70 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006-012>014-
019>022.
OK...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077.
TX...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-138.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...24
Latest Hazardous Weather Outlook
000
FLUS44 KSHV 180939
HWOSHV
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
439 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-012>014-019>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-138-191100-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-Bienville-
Jackson-Ouachita-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Red River-
Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Harrison-
439 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT
TUESDAY...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Colder and drier air will continue to spill south today into
Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, Northeast Texas, and North
Louisiana, in wake a cold front that will exit the region to the
south. With the sky clearing later today, and high pressure building
into the region this evening, good radiational cooling will result
in a widespread freeze across much of the area late tonight.
Precautions should be made today to protect tender vegetation and
outdoor pipes from these cold temperatures.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
A gradual warming trend will commence Tuesday and continue through
Wednesday, with dry conditions persisting through midweek. However,
increasing low level moisture return Wednesday afternoon and night
will set the stage for increasing showers and a few thunderstorms
late over Southeast Oklahoma and East Texas, which will spread across
the remainder of the region Thursday ahead of an upper level
disturbance. No hazardous weather is expected, with the showers and
embedded storms diminishing from west to east Thursday night with the
departing disturbance. Warmer and drier conditions will return to
the area Friday through next weekend.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
$$
LAZ010-011-017-018-TXZ136-137-149>153-165>167-191100-
De Soto-Red River-Sabine-Natchitoches-Smith-Gregg-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
439 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Louisiana, east
Texas and northeast Texas.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Colder and drier air will continue to spill south today into
East Texas and North Louisiana, in wake a cold front that will exit
the region to the south. With the sky gradually clearing later today,
and high pressure building into the region this evening, good
radiational cooling will result in a areas of frost across much of
the area late tonight. Precautions should be made today to protect
tender vegetation from these cold temperatures.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
A gradual warming trend will commence Tuesday and continue through
Wednesday, with dry conditions persisting through midweek. However,
increasing low level moisture return Wednesday afternoon and night
will set the stage for increasing showers and a few thunderstorms
late over Southeast Oklahoma and East Texas, which will spread across
the remainder of the region Thursday ahead of an upper level
disturbance. No hazardous weather is expected, with the showers and
embedded storms diminishing from west to east Thursday night with
this departing disturbance. Warmer and drier conditions will return
to the area Friday through next weekend.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
$$
15
IMPORTANT: This page is a tool to help pilots better visualize weather and weather-related hazards, and is not a substitute for a weather briefing obtained from a Flight Service Station (1-800-WXBRIEF). The information contained here does not meet the FAA requirements for a pre-flight weather brief. Therefore, it is important that pilots call and obtain a briefing from an FAA Flight Service Specialist.