WFO - ABR net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ATNS2 75 (123/165) 100 (274/274) 70 (115/165) 70 (191/274) 41 ( 67/165) 23 ( 64/274) 8 ( 13/165) over 20 under -10 over 5 under -20 under -16 under -13 under -3 12.4 -5.3 12.8 -10.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CMBS2 78 (129/165) 100 (274/274) 74 (122/165) 72 (197/274) 45 ( 75/165) 24 ( 66/274) 10 ( 16/165) over 17 under -10 over 1 under -22 under -20 under -14 under -5 12.7 -7.6 13.4 -13.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CSWS2 94 (150/159) 100 (261/261) 86 (137/159) 67 (174/261) 38 ( 60/159) 29 ( 75/261) 12 ( 19/159) over 1 under -10 under -11 under -17 under -13 under -19 under -7 11.1 -10.9 14.0 -14.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FTPS2 84 (132/157) 100 (241/241) 75 (117/157) 63 (152/241) 25 ( 39/157) 24 ( 57/241) 12 ( 19/157) over 11 under -10 spot-on 0 under -13 spot-on 0 under -14 under -7 7.9 -4.7 7.4 -7.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIES2 89 (144/161) 100 (258/258) 80 (128/161) 62 (160/258) 41 ( 66/161) 37 ( 95/258) 27 ( 43/161) over 6 under -10 under -5 under -12 under -16 under -27 under -22 14.0 -12.3 14.0 -14.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RFDS2 77 (127/165) 100 (274/274) 72 (119/165) 67 (183/274) 41 ( 68/165) 22 ( 61/274) 12 ( 20/165) over 18 under -10 over 3 under -17 under -16 under -12 under -7 11.9 -5.9 11.6 -10.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFDS2 73 (120/165) 100 (274/274) 66 (109/165) 66 (180/274) 39 ( 64/165) 25 ( 68/274) 11 ( 18/165) over 22 under -10 over 9 under -16 under -14 under -15 under -6 13.1 -4.3 12.8 -9.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SNKS2 58 ( 30/ 52) 100 ( 52/ 52) 50 ( 26/ 52) 44 ( 23/ 52) 27 ( 14/ 52) 4 ( 2/ 52) 0 ( 0/ 52) over 37 under -10 over 25 over 6 under -2 over 6 over 5 13.0 9.6 9.8 5.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WBSS2 91 (144/159) 100 (261/261) 81 (128/159) 60 (156/261) 42 ( 66/159) 26 ( 68/261) 14 ( 23/159) over 4 under -10 under -6 under -10 under -17 under -16 under -9 10.3 -9.1 11.8 -11.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WBWS2 92 (146/159) 100 (261/261) 83 (132/159) 57 (150/261) 33 ( 52/159) 14 ( 37/261) 13 ( 20/159) over 3 under -10 under -8 under -7 under -8 under -4 under -8 6.9 -6.0 7.4 -7.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WESS2 84 (138/165) 100 (274/274) 80 (132/165) 68 (185/274) 42 ( 69/165) 24 ( 66/274) 12 ( 19/165) over 11 under -10 under -5 under -18 under -17 under -14 under -7 11.7 -8.6 12.8 -12.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHIS2 89 (144/161) 100 (258/258) 81 (130/161) 69 (177/258) 49 ( 79/161) 41 (105/258) 22 ( 35/161) over 6 under -10 under -6 under -19 under -24 under -31 under -17 16.1 -14.4 18.0 -18.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WTRS2 94 (150/159) 100 (261/261) 87 (139/159) 67 (174/261) 45 ( 72/159) 22 ( 57/261) 15 ( 24/159) over 1 under -10 under -12 under -17 under -20 under -12 under -10 11.7 -11.4 14.2 -14.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= WFO - BIS net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BREN8 75 (120/161) 100 (258/258) 65 (105/161) 55 (141/258) 27 ( 44/161) 29 ( 76/258) 13 ( 21/161) over 20 under -10 over 10 under -5 under -2 under -19 under -8 10.6 -2.0 9.2 -5.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BVRN8 99 (159/161) 100 (199/199) 93 (150/161) 70 (140/199) 35 ( 57/161) 15 ( 30/199) 11 ( 17/161) under -4 under -10 under -18 under -20 under -10 under -5 under -6 10.4 -10.4 12.6 -12.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GCEN8 84 (139/165) 100 (274/274) 81 (134/165) 79 (217/274) 50 ( 83/165) 28 ( 77/274) 17 ( 28/165) over 11 under -10 under -6 under -29 under -25 under -18 under -12 15.9 -12.7 17.6 -17.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HZNN8 80 (132/166) 100 (271/271) 71 (118/166) 57 (154/271) 34 ( 57/166) 20 ( 53/271) 8 ( 13/166) over 15 under -10 over 4 under -7 under -9 under -10 under -3 8.3 -2.9 8.0 -6.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LAMN8 87 (143/165) 100 (274/274) 84 (138/165) 84 (230/274) 66 (109/165) 35 ( 97/274) 19 ( 31/165) over 8 under -10 under -9 under -34 under -41 under -25 under -14 20.1 -17.9 23.8 -23.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LMCN8 93 (154/166) 100 (271/271) 89 (147/166) 73 (197/271) 47 ( 78/166) 25 ( 67/271) 16 ( 27/166) over 2 under -10 under -14 under -23 under -22 under -15 under -11 13.9 -13.3 16.8 -16.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDAN8 91 (151/166) 100 (271/271) 83 (137/166) 77 (208/271) 51 ( 84/166) 31 ( 85/271) 11 ( 19/166) over 4 under -10 under -8 under -27 under -26 under -21 under -6 14.6 -13.4 18.4 -18.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDNN8 90 (150/166) 100 (271/271) 85 (141/166) 70 (191/271) 43 ( 71/166) 27 ( 73/271) 16 ( 26/166) over 5 under -10 under -10 under -20 under -18 under -17 under -11 13.0 -11.6 15.0 -15.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MENN8 81 (135/166) 100 (271/271) 73 (122/166) 44 (120/271) 19 ( 31/166) 11 ( 29/271) 6 ( 10/166) over 14 under -10 over 2 over 6 over 6 under -1 under -1 5.7 2.3 5.0 0.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MNGN8 96 (160/166) 100 (271/271) 93 (154/166) 80 (216/271) 50 ( 83/166) 20 ( 54/271) 10 ( 17/166) under -1 under -10 under -18 under -30 under -25 under -10 under -5 14.1 -14.1 18.6 -18.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MTHN8 87 (144/166) 100 (271/271) 83 (138/166) 75 (203/271) 48 ( 79/166) 33 ( 89/271) 9 ( 15/166) over 8 under -10 under -8 under -25 under -23 under -23 under -4 14.4 -12.1 17.8 -17.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PGEN8 96 (159/165) 100 (274/274) 92 (151/165) 90 (246/274) 67 (111/165) 41 (112/274) 28 ( 46/165) under -1 under -10 under -17 under -40 under -42 under -31 under -23 23.4 -23.4 28.0 -28.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- REGN8 81 (131/161) 100 (258/258) 59 ( 95/161) 39 (101/258) 26 ( 42/161) 12 ( 30/258) 8 ( 13/161) over 14 under -10 over 16 over 11 under -1 under -2 under -3 8.1 3.6 8.0 2.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RLGN8 83 (133/161) 100 (258/258) 71 (114/161) 47 (120/258) 38 ( 61/161) 21 ( 55/258) 23 ( 37/161) over 12 under -10 over 4 over 3 under -13 under -11 under -18 10.1 -4.7 8.2 -5.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WLTN8 79 ( 70/ 89) 100 ( 89/ 89) 78 ( 69/ 89) 74 ( 66/ 89) 69 ( 61/ 89) 55 ( 49/ 89) 39 ( 35/ 89) over 16 under -10 under -3 under -24 under -44 under -45 under -34 25.1 -20.6 25.2 -25.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WTFN8 94 (156/166) 100 (271/271) 92 (152/166) 79 (213/271) 61 (102/166) 34 ( 91/271) 23 ( 39/166) over 1 under -10 under -17 under -29 under -36 under -24 under -18 19.3 -19.0 23.2 -23.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ZAPN8 96 (159/166) 100 (271/271) 89 (147/166) 64 (174/271) 39 ( 65/166) 13 ( 36/271) 6 ( 10/166) under -1 under -10 under -14 under -14 under -14 under -3 under -1 8.1 -8.1 11.0 -11.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= WFO - BOU net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ATWC2 71 ( 61/ 86) 100 ( 86/ 86) 59 ( 51/ 86) 44 ( 38/ 86) 26 ( 22/ 86) 16 ( 14/ 86) 7 ( 6/ 86) over 24 under -10 over 16 over 6 under -1 under -6 under -2 9.3 3.9 7.8 1.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BZNC2 75 (109/145) 100 (169/169) 58 ( 84/145) 43 ( 73/169) 21 ( 30/145) 15 ( 26/169) 5 ( 7/145) over 20 under -10 over 17 over 7 over 4 under -5 spot-on 0 9.0 4.7 8.6 2.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DKKC2 59 ( 86/145) 100 (155/155) 59 ( 86/145) 60 ( 93/155) 52 ( 75/145) 47 ( 73/155) 39 ( 57/145) over 36 under -10 over 16 under -10 under -27 under -37 under -34 24.3 -9.4 20.0 -13.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DNVC2 92 (134/145) 100 (174/174) 89 (129/145) 83 (144/174) 68 ( 99/145) 44 ( 77/174) 30 ( 44/145) over 3 under -10 under -14 under -33 under -43 under -34 under -25 23.1 -22.3 26.8 -26.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DRBC2 97 (140/145) 100 (174/174) 90 (130/145) 77 (134/174) 66 ( 95/145) 43 ( 75/174) 39 ( 57/145) under -2 under -10 under -15 under -27 under -41 under -33 under -34 23.1 -23.1 25.2 -25.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FOMC2 70 ( 60/ 86) 100 ( 86/ 86) 47 ( 40/ 86) 24 ( 21/ 86) 14 ( 12/ 86) 12 ( 10/ 86) 5 ( 4/ 86) over 25 under -10 over 28 over 26 over 11 under -2 spot-on 0 14.6 11.1 15.4 10.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FTDC2 92 (134/145) 100 (178/178) 90 (131/145) 86 (153/178) 63 ( 92/145) 44 ( 78/178) 15 ( 22/145) over 3 under -10 under -15 under -36 under -38 under -34 under -10 20.9 -20.0 26.6 -26.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLDC2 83 (120/145) 100 (176/176) 81 (118/145) 77 (135/176) 57 ( 83/145) 46 ( 81/176) 28 ( 40/145) over 12 under -10 under -6 under -27 under -32 under -36 under -23 20.9 -17.4 22.2 -22.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GRPC2 90 (130/145) 100 (181/181) 86 (125/145) 78 (141/181) 56 ( 81/145) 34 ( 62/181) 12 ( 18/145) over 5 under -10 under -11 under -28 under -31 under -24 under -7 16.6 -15.1 20.8 -20.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HNDC2 84 (122/145) 100 (174/174) 75 (109/145) 63 (109/174) 38 ( 55/145) 21 ( 36/174) 13 ( 19/145) over 11 under -10 spot-on 0 under -13 under -13 under -11 under -8 9.4 -6.3 9.4 -9.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JULC2 76 (110/145) 100 (169/169) 66 ( 96/145) 53 ( 89/169) 37 ( 54/145) 29 ( 49/169) 17 ( 25/145) over 19 under -10 over 9 under -3 under -12 under -19 under -12 12.0 -4.0 10.6 -7.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KERC2 76 (110/145) 100 (174/174) 62 ( 90/145) 51 ( 89/174) 30 ( 43/145) 14 ( 25/174) 7 ( 10/145) over 19 under -10 over 13 under -1 under -5 under -4 under -2 7.7 1.4 6.6 -1.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LOVC2 90 (131/145) 100 (176/176) 84 (122/145) 77 (136/176) 62 ( 90/145) 48 ( 85/176) 30 ( 44/145) over 5 under -10 under -9 under -27 under -37 under -38 under -25 21.6 -20.1 24.2 -24.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LUPC2 85 ( 69/ 81) 100 ( 81/ 81) 80 ( 65/ 81) 64 ( 52/ 81) 32 ( 26/ 81) 14 ( 11/ 81) 10 ( 8/ 81) over 10 under -10 under -5 under -14 under -7 under -4 under -5 7.9 -5.0 8.0 -8.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MRRC2 94 (137/145) 100 (174/174) 89 (129/145) 81 (141/174) 59 ( 86/145) 47 ( 82/174) 34 ( 49/145) over 1 under -10 under -14 under -31 under -34 under -37 under -29 22.3 -22.0 25.2 -25.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NGTC2 88 (127/144) 100 (165/165) 83 (120/144) 77 (127/165) 67 ( 96/144) 62 (102/165) 47 ( 68/144) over 7 under -10 under -8 under -27 under -42 under -52 under -42 26.9 -24.9 27.8 -27.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- POUC2 93 (135/145) 100 (181/181) 92 (133/145) 86 (155/181) 70 (101/145) 50 ( 90/181) 20 ( 29/145) over 2 under -10 under -17 under -36 under -45 under -40 under -15 23.6 -23.0 29.6 -29.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHRC2 86 (125/145) 100 (174/174) 83 (120/145) 70 (122/174) 54 ( 78/145) 30 ( 53/174) 19 ( 27/145) over 9 under -10 under -8 under -20 under -29 under -20 under -14 15.7 -13.1 17.4 -17.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPTC2 44 ( 64/145) 100 (174/174) 39 ( 56/145) 37 ( 64/174) 26 ( 38/145) 23 ( 40/174) 15 ( 22/145) over 51 under -10 over 36 over 13 under -1 under -13 under -10 19.1 9.4 14.6 5.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WNAC2 79 (115/145) 100 (169/169) 65 ( 94/145) 50 ( 84/169) 32 ( 46/145) 11 ( 19/169) 6 ( 8/145) over 16 under -10 over 10 spot-on 0 under -7 under -1 under -1 6.4 1.0 5.6 -1.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= WFO - BYZ net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BFYM8 94 (160/171) 100 (215/215) 84 (144/171) 75 (161/215) 53 ( 91/171) 37 ( 80/215) 22 ( 37/171) over 1 under -10 under -9 under -25 under -28 under -27 under -17 16.7 -16.4 19.8 -19.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BILM8 96 (164/171) 100 (215/215) 90 (154/171) 87 (186/215) 74 (127/171) 50 (107/215) 26 ( 45/171) under -1 under -10 under -15 under -37 under -49 under -40 under -21 24.7 -24.7 30.2 -30.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BNYM8 95 (163/171) 100 (195/195) 94 (160/171) 90 (175/195) 85 (146/171) 75 (147/195) 57 ( 98/171) spot-on 0 under -10 under -19 under -40 under -60 under -65 under -52 35.1 -35.1 38.8 -38.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BTMM8 94 (161/171) 100 (215/215) 89 (152/171) 85 (182/215) 70 (120/171) 53 (114/215) 39 ( 66/171) over 1 under -10 under -14 under -35 under -45 under -43 under -34 26.0 -25.7 29.4 -29.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORM8 95 (163/171) 100 (215/215) 81 (138/171) 70 (151/215) 46 ( 78/171) 28 ( 60/215) 13 ( 23/171) spot-on 0 under -10 under -6 under -20 under -21 under -18 under -8 11.9 -11.9 15.0 -15.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EDGM8 92 (157/171) 100 (174/174) 84 (144/171) 67 (117/174) 53 ( 91/171) 35 ( 61/174) 21 ( 36/171) over 3 under -10 under -9 under -17 under -28 under -25 under -16 15.4 -14.6 17.8 -17.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FRYM8 94 (102/108) 100 (108/108) 93 (100/108) 84 ( 91/108) 81 ( 88/108) 44 ( 48/108) 25 ( 27/108) over 1 under -10 under -18 under -34 under -56 under -34 under -20 24.7 -24.4 30.4 -30.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HLWM8 88 (126/143) 100 (143/143) 87 (124/143) 78 (112/143) 74 (106/143) 53 ( 76/143) 42 ( 60/143) over 7 under -10 under -12 under -28 under -49 under -43 under -37 26.6 -24.6 28.4 -28.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HRDM8 97 (105/108) 100 (108/108) 94 (101/108) 84 ( 91/108) 69 ( 75/108) 43 ( 46/108) 29 ( 31/108) under -2 under -10 under -19 under -34 under -44 under -33 under -24 23.7 -23.7 28.0 -28.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIVM8 94 (161/171) 100 (215/215) 86 (147/171) 75 (161/215) 50 ( 86/171) 32 ( 69/215) 22 ( 37/171) over 1 under -10 under -11 under -25 under -25 under -22 under -17 15.9 -15.6 18.6 -18.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LVNM8 94 (134/143) 100 (143/143) 92 (130/142) 79 (113/143) 65 ( 92/142) 55 ( 78/143) 44 ( 63/142) over 1 under -10 under -17 under -29 under -40 under -45 under -39 25.9 -25.6 28.2 -28.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MICM8 87 (148/171) 100 (189/189) 87 (148/171) 83 (157/189) 68 (116/171) 41 ( 78/189) 29 ( 50/171) over 8 under -10 under -12 under -33 under -43 under -31 under -24 23.0 -20.7 25.8 -25.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MILM8 94 (101/108) 100 (108/108) 91 ( 98/108) 87 ( 94/108) 82 ( 89/108) 54 ( 58/108) 40 ( 43/108) over 1 under -10 under -16 under -37 under -57 under -44 under -35 28.6 -28.3 32.8 -32.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MUSM8 91 (129/142) 100 (142/142) 87 (123/142) 73 (104/142) 57 ( 81/142) 42 ( 60/142) 33 ( 47/142) over 4 under -10 under -12 under -23 under -32 under -32 under -28 20.1 -19.0 21.8 -21.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RUPM8 79 (112/142) 100 (142/142) 74 (105/142) 61 ( 87/142) 46 ( 65/142) 32 ( 45/142) 21 ( 30/142) over 16 under -10 over 1 under -11 under -21 under -22 under -16 13.9 -9.0 13.0 -12.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHAM8 92 (132/143) 100 (143/143) 87 (125/143) 75 (107/143) 57 ( 82/143) 43 ( 62/143) 34 ( 49/143) over 3 under -10 under -12 under -25 under -32 under -33 under -29 20.6 -19.7 22.4 -22.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHBW4 77 (118/153) 100 (153/153) 76 (117/153) 76 (116/153) 65 (100/153) 50 ( 77/153) 39 ( 60/153) over 18 under -10 under -1 under -26 under -40 under -40 under -34 24.1 -19.0 23.4 -23.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SLDM8 82 (140/171) 100 (215/215) 68 (116/171) 50 (108/215) 26 ( 44/171) 19 ( 40/215) 11 ( 19/171) over 13 under -10 over 7 spot-on 0 under -1 under -9 under -6 6.6 -0.9 5.4 -2.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SRAM8 95 (163/171) 100 (209/209) 88 (151/171) 80 (167/209) 64 (109/171) 43 ( 90/209) 22 ( 37/171) spot-on 0 under -10 under -13 under -30 under -39 under -33 under -17 20.3 -20.3 25.0 -25.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= WFO - CYS net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BGPN1 63 ( 91/144) 100 (150/150) 58 ( 84/144) 51 ( 76/150) 42 ( 60/144) 38 ( 57/150) 32 ( 46/144) over 32 under -10 over 17 under -1 under -17 under -28 under -27 18.9 -4.9 14.6 -7.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BOSW4 81 (116/144) 100 (165/165) 79 (114/144) 67 (111/165) 51 ( 74/144) 45 ( 75/165) 34 ( 49/144) over 14 under -10 under -4 under -17 under -26 under -35 under -29 19.3 -15.3 18.4 -18.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ECRW4 94 (135/144) 100 (155/155) 92 (132/144) 90 (139/155) 78 (112/144) 63 ( 97/155) 47 ( 67/144) over 1 under -10 under -17 under -40 under -53 under -53 under -42 30.9 -30.6 34.6 -34.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FLAW4 86 (124/144) 100 (165/165) 82 (118/144) 73 (120/165) 60 ( 86/144) 49 ( 81/165) 38 ( 55/144) over 9 under -10 under -7 under -23 under -35 under -39 under -33 22.3 -19.7 22.8 -22.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLNW4 69 (100/144) 100 (159/159) 68 ( 98/144) 63 (100/159) 54 ( 78/144) 42 ( 66/159) 33 ( 48/144) over 26 under -10 over 7 under -13 under -29 under -32 under -28 20.7 -11.3 18.2 -15.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HANW4 90 (129/144) 100 (165/165) 83 (119/144) 73 (120/165) 58 ( 83/144) 47 ( 77/165) 31 ( 45/144) over 5 under -10 under -8 under -23 under -33 under -37 under -26 20.3 -18.9 22.2 -22.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HENN1 60 ( 86/144) 100 (158/158) 56 ( 81/144) 47 ( 75/158) 40 ( 58/144) 39 ( 61/158) 28 ( 41/144) over 35 under -10 over 19 over 3 under -15 under -29 under -23 19.1 -2.9 15.2 -6.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LLRW4 86 (124/144) 100 (165/165) 83 (119/144) 70 (115/165) 54 ( 78/144) 39 ( 65/165) 31 ( 45/144) over 9 under -10 under -8 under -20 under -29 under -29 under -26 18.7 -16.1 19.2 -19.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MICN1 63 ( 91/144) 100 (150/150) 56 ( 81/144) 49 ( 74/150) 34 ( 49/144) 30 ( 45/150) 18 ( 26/144) over 32 under -10 over 19 over 1 under -9 under -20 under -13 14.9 0.0 11.8 -3.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MNTN1 44 ( 64/144) 100 (150/150) 42 ( 60/144) 35 ( 52/150) 28 ( 40/144) 24 ( 36/150) 17 ( 24/144) over 51 under -10 over 33 over 15 under -3 under -14 under -12 19.7 8.6 15.0 4.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ORIW4 76 (110/144) 100 (159/159) 76 (110/144) 75 (120/159) 68 ( 98/144) 57 ( 91/159) 45 ( 65/144) over 19 under -10 under -1 under -25 under -43 under -47 under -40 26.4 -21.0 25.2 -25.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SINW4 91 (131/144) 100 (155/155) 81 (117/144) 70 (108/155) 59 ( 85/144) 54 ( 83/155) 40 ( 57/144) over 4 under -10 under -6 under -20 under -34 under -44 under -35 21.9 -20.7 22.8 -22.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SRAW4 84 (121/144) 100 (165/165) 72 (103/144) 62 (102/165) 51 ( 74/144) 42 ( 69/165) 29 ( 42/144) over 11 under -10 over 3 under -12 under -26 under -32 under -24 16.9 -12.9 16.6 -15.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WODW4 94 (136/144) 100 (165/165) 91 (131/144) 80 (132/165) 65 ( 93/144) 52 ( 85/165) 39 ( 56/144) over 1 under -10 under -16 under -30 under -40 under -42 under -34 24.7 -24.4 27.6 -27.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= WFO - DDC net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ARNK1 78 (120/153) 100 (197/197) 71 (108/153) 53 (104/197) 17 ( 26/153) 8 ( 16/197) 1 ( 1/153) over 17 under -10 over 4 under -3 over 8 over 2 over 4 6.9 3.1 5.4 0.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HYSK1 99 (152/153) 100 (197/197) 98 (150/153) 92 (181/197) 63 ( 96/153) 25 ( 49/197) 14 ( 21/153) under -4 under -10 under -23 under -42 under -38 under -15 under -9 20.1 -20.1 25.6 -25.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SCSK1 88 (135/153) 100 (197/197) 84 (129/153) 60 (118/197) 35 ( 53/153) 11 ( 21/197) 7 ( 11/153) over 7 under -10 under -9 under -10 under -10 under -1 under -2 7.0 -5.0 8.0 -8.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WAAK1 89 (136/153) 100 (197/197) 85 (130/153) 76 (150/197) 48 ( 73/153) 19 ( 37/197) 11 ( 17/153) over 6 under -10 under -10 under -26 under -23 under -9 under -6 12.9 -11.1 15.6 -15.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= WFO - DMX net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ATCI4 90 (137/153) 100 (253/253) 73 (111/153) 53 (133/253) 25 ( 38/153) 7 ( 17/253) 7 ( 10/153) over 5 under -10 over 2 under -3 spot-on 0 over 3 under -2 3.6 -0.7 3.6 -1.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BDFI4 93 (141/152) 100 (252/252) 69 (105/152) 66 (167/252) 48 ( 73/152) 31 ( 78/252) 18 ( 27/152) over 2 under -10 over 6 under -16 under -23 under -21 under -13 13.0 -10.7 15.2 -12.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CHTI4 84 (130/154) 100 (249/249) 63 ( 97/154) 55 (136/249) 34 ( 53/154) 20 ( 51/249) 11 ( 17/154) over 11 under -10 over 12 under -5 under -9 under -10 under -6 9.0 -2.4 9.2 -4.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DVSI4 97 (150/154) 100 (249/249) 77 (118/154) 61 (151/249) 25 ( 38/154) 11 ( 28/249) 6 ( 9/154) under -2 under -10 under -2 under -11 spot-on 0 under -1 under -1 3.9 -3.9 4.8 -4.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MOLI4 77 (119/154) 100 (249/249) 62 ( 96/154) 53 (132/249) 25 ( 38/154) 12 ( 31/249) 6 ( 10/154) over 18 under -10 over 13 under -3 spot-on 0 under -2 under -1 6.7 2.1 5.6 -0.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRMI4 97 (149/154) 100 (249/249) 68 (104/154) 47 (116/249) 20 ( 31/154) 16 ( 39/249) 5 ( 8/154) under -2 under -10 over 7 over 3 over 5 under -6 spot-on 0 4.7 -0.4 6.2 -0.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= WFO - EAX net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AGYM7 94 (143/152) 100 (252/252) 74 (113/152) 64 (161/252) 39 ( 60/152) 11 ( 27/252) 9 ( 13/152) over 1 under -10 over 1 under -14 under -14 under -1 under -4 6.4 -5.9 8.0 -7.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ATCK1 71 ( 52/ 73) 100 ( 73/ 73) 49 ( 36/ 73) 29 ( 21/ 73) 14 ( 10/ 73) 3 ( 2/ 73) 1 ( 1/ 73) over 24 under -10 over 26 over 21 over 11 over 7 over 4 14.7 11.9 15.0 11.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BLRM7 91 (127/140) 100 (140/140) 74 (103/140) 51 ( 72/140) 20 ( 28/140) 4 ( 5/140) 2 ( 3/140) over 4 under -10 over 1 under -1 over 5 over 6 over 3 4.3 1.1 4.6 0.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BLVM7 93 (142/152) 100 (229/229) 74 (112/152) 54 (124/229) 28 ( 42/152) 3 ( 8/229) 0 ( 0/152) over 2 under -10 over 1 under -4 under -3 over 7 over 5 4.6 -0.3 5.0 -1.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONM7 95 (145/152) 100 (229/229) 85 (129/152) 69 (158/229) 28 ( 43/152) 6 ( 13/229) 5 ( 7/152) spot-on 0 under -10 under -10 under -19 under -3 over 4 spot-on 0 6.6 -5.4 9.2 -7.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BOZM7 86 ( 64/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 61 ( 45/ 74) 38 ( 28/ 74) 15 ( 11/ 74) 3 ( 2/ 74) 0 ( 0/ 74) over 9 under -10 over 14 over 12 over 10 over 7 over 5 9.6 6.7 10.6 6.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BRLM7 85 (129/152) 100 (252/252) 69 (105/152) 41 (103/252) 28 ( 43/152) 8 ( 19/252) 1 ( 2/152) over 10 under -10 over 6 over 9 under -3 over 2 over 4 6.3 2.6 6.0 0.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BVCM7 56 ( 65/116) 100 (116/116) 41 ( 48/116) 30 ( 35/116) 21 ( 24/116) 11 ( 13/116) 8 ( 9/116) over 39 under -10 over 34 over 20 over 4 under -1 under -3 15.9 11.9 13.8 9.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAXM7 97 (147/152) 100 (229/229) 85 (129/152) 57 (130/229) 14 ( 21/152) 5 ( 12/229) 5 ( 7/152) under -2 under -10 under -10 under -7 over 11 over 5 spot-on 0 6.4 -1.9 8.6 -2.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CHZM7 97 (149/154) 100 (249/249) 79 (121/154) 57 (141/249) 34 ( 53/154) 15 ( 38/249) 10 ( 16/154) under -2 under -10 under -4 under -7 under -9 under -5 under -5 6.0 -6.0 7.0 -7.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DSOK1 83 (119/143) 100 (143/143) 59 ( 84/143) 37 ( 53/143) 15 ( 21/143) 1 ( 2/143) 1 ( 2/143) over 12 under -10 over 16 over 13 over 10 over 9 over 4 10.6 7.7 11.6 7.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ESTK1 89 (137/154) 100 (156/156) 62 ( 95/154) 26 ( 41/156) 11 ( 17/154) 1 ( 1/156) 0 ( 0/154) over 6 under -10 over 13 over 24 over 14 over 9 over 5 11.6 8.7 14.0 10.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FFXM7 94 (144/153) 100 (253/253) 75 (114/153) 46 (117/253) 15 ( 23/153) 1 ( 3/253) 1 ( 1/153) over 1 under -10 spot-on 0 over 4 over 10 over 9 over 4 5.4 2.6 6.6 2.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FYTM7 93 (142/152) 100 (229/229) 69 (105/152) 48 (111/229) 10 ( 15/152) 1 ( 3/229) 1 ( 2/152) over 2 under -10 over 6 over 2 over 15 over 9 over 4 6.9 4.0 8.4 4.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GAZM7 100 (154/154) 100 (249/249) 87 (134/154) 66 (164/249) 38 ( 59/154) 17 ( 43/249) 14 ( 22/154) under -5 under -10 under -12 under -16 under -13 under -7 under -9 10.3 -10.3 11.6 -11.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLZM7 86 ( 64/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 62 ( 46/ 74) 36 ( 27/ 74) 14 ( 10/ 74) 3 ( 2/ 74) 0 ( 0/ 74) over 9 under -10 over 13 over 14 over 11 over 7 over 5 9.9 7.0 11.0 7.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAYM7 47 ( 71/152) 100 (173/173) 41 ( 62/152) 25 ( 43/173) 17 ( 26/152) 9 ( 16/173) 3 ( 5/152) over 48 under -10 over 34 over 25 over 8 over 1 over 2 18.3 15.4 15.6 11.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KBRM7 91 (139/152) 100 (229/229) 84 (127/152) 66 (151/229) 28 ( 42/152) 8 ( 18/229) 7 ( 11/152) over 4 under -10 under -9 under -16 under -3 over 2 under -2 6.6 -4.9 8.0 -7.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KCCM7 98 (149/152) 100 (229/229) 88 (133/152) 64 (147/229) 16 ( 25/152) 8 ( 19/229) 4 ( 6/152) under -3 under -10 under -13 under -14 over 9 over 2 over 1 7.4 -4.0 9.6 -5.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KCDM7 81 ( 60/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 59 ( 44/ 74) 38 ( 28/ 74) 16 ( 12/ 74) 4 ( 3/ 74) 1 ( 1/ 74) over 14 under -10 over 16 over 12 over 9 over 6 over 4 10.1 7.3 10.6 6.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KCKK1 86 ( 64/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 64 ( 47/ 74) 47 ( 35/ 74) 16 ( 12/ 74) 8 ( 6/ 74) 5 ( 4/ 74) over 9 under -10 over 11 over 3 over 9 over 2 spot-on 0 6.3 3.4 7.0 3.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KCTM7 97 (147/152) 100 (173/173) 82 (124/152) 57 ( 99/173) 17 ( 26/152) 6 ( 11/173) 3 ( 4/152) under -2 under -10 under -7 under -7 over 8 over 4 over 2 5.7 -1.7 7.2 -2.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KNYM7 61 ( 93/152) 100 (173/173) 51 ( 77/152) 35 ( 60/173) 32 ( 49/152) 16 ( 27/173) 9 ( 14/152) over 34 under -10 over 24 over 15 under -7 under -6 under -4 14.3 6.6 12.4 3.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KSDM7 95 (145/152) 100 (173/173) 86 (131/152) 55 ( 96/173) 16 ( 24/152) 6 ( 11/173) 2 ( 3/152) spot-on 0 under -10 under -11 under -5 over 9 over 4 over 3 6.0 -1.4 7.8 -2.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KSVM7 51 ( 78/152) 100 (173/173) 42 ( 64/152) 20 ( 35/173) 16 ( 24/152) 8 ( 13/173) 5 ( 8/152) over 44 under -10 over 33 over 30 over 9 over 2 spot-on 0 18.3 15.4 16.8 12.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LCGK1 90 ( 77/ 86) 100 ( 86/ 86) 74 ( 64/ 86) 52 ( 45/ 86) 16 ( 14/ 86) 9 ( 8/ 86) 7 ( 6/ 86) over 5 under -10 over 1 under -2 over 9 over 1 under -2 4.3 0.3 4.6 -0.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEVK1 86 ( 64/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 66 ( 49/ 74) 35 ( 26/ 74) 16 ( 12/ 74) 8 ( 6/ 74) 3 ( 2/ 74) over 9 under -10 over 9 over 15 over 9 over 2 over 2 8.0 5.1 9.0 5.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LKCM7 97 (148/152) 100 (229/229) 82 (124/152) 68 (155/229) 24 ( 37/152) 10 ( 23/229) 3 ( 5/152) under -2 under -10 under -7 under -18 over 1 spot-on 0 over 2 5.7 -4.9 7.2 -6.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSCK1 97 (149/154) 100 (156/156) 73 (112/154) 40 ( 63/156) 20 ( 31/154) 3 ( 5/156) 0 ( 0/154) under -2 under -10 over 2 over 10 over 5 over 7 over 5 5.9 2.4 6.8 2.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MYVM7 98 (149/152) 100 (252/252) 79 (120/152) 71 (179/252) 47 ( 72/152) 27 ( 69/252) 18 ( 27/152) under -3 under -10 under -4 under -21 under -22 under -17 under -13 12.9 -12.9 14.8 -14.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NAPM7 86 ( 64/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 59 ( 44/ 74) 38 ( 28/ 74) 20 ( 15/ 74) 5 ( 4/ 74) 5 ( 4/ 74) over 9 under -10 over 16 over 12 over 5 over 5 spot-on 0 8.1 5.3 9.6 5.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVZM7 94 (145/154) 100 (249/249) 73 (113/154) 53 (133/249) 29 ( 45/154) 13 ( 32/249) 6 ( 10/154) over 1 under -10 over 2 under -3 under -4 under -3 under -1 3.4 -2.6 4.4 -3.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OSMK1 87 ( 75/ 86) 100 ( 86/ 86) 76 ( 65/ 86) 62 ( 53/ 86) 26 ( 22/ 86) 17 ( 15/ 86) 13 ( 11/ 86) over 8 under -10 under -1 under -12 under -1 under -7 under -8 6.7 -4.4 6.2 -6.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OTTM7 93 (141/152) 100 (229/229) 80 (122/152) 62 (142/229) 16 ( 24/152) 2 ( 4/229) 0 ( 0/152) over 2 under -10 under -5 under -12 over 9 over 8 over 5 7.3 -0.4 8.8 -2.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PATM7 91 (140/154) 100 (249/249) 82 (126/154) 53 (133/249) 35 ( 54/154) 12 ( 31/249) 8 ( 13/154) over 4 under -10 under -7 under -3 under -10 under -2 under -3 5.6 -4.4 6.4 -6.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PKVM7 87 ( 47/ 54) 100 ( 54/ 54) 63 ( 34/ 54) 26 ( 14/ 54) 11 ( 6/ 54) 2 ( 1/ 54) 0 ( 0/ 54) over 8 under -10 over 12 over 24 over 14 over 8 over 5 11.6 8.7 13.6 9.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRIM7 95 (146/154) 100 (249/249) 73 (113/154) 48 (120/249) 23 ( 36/154) 17 ( 42/249) 11 ( 17/154) spot-on 0 under -10 over 2 over 2 over 2 under -7 under -6 4.1 -2.4 4.6 -2.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICM7 97 (148/152) 100 (229/229) 82 (124/152) 59 (136/229) 24 ( 36/152) 7 ( 16/229) 5 ( 7/152) under -2 under -10 under -7 under -9 over 1 over 3 spot-on 0 4.6 -3.4 6.0 -4.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SJSM7 91 ( 67/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 70 ( 52/ 74) 36 ( 27/ 74) 22 ( 16/ 74) 9 ( 7/ 74) 0 ( 0/ 74) over 4 under -10 over 5 over 14 over 3 over 1 over 5 6.0 3.1 6.6 2.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SMHM7 98 (149/152) 100 (252/252) 93 (142/152) 83 (209/252) 63 ( 96/152) 37 ( 94/252) 20 ( 31/152) under -3 under -10 under -18 under -33 under -38 under -27 under -15 20.6 -20.6 25.2 -25.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SNZM7 96 (148/154) 100 (249/249) 71 (109/154) 50 (125/249) 32 ( 49/154) 14 ( 35/249) 10 ( 16/154) under -1 under -10 over 4 spot-on 0 under -7 under -4 under -5 4.4 -3.3 5.0 -3.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SSTM7 89 (135/152) 100 (252/252) 68 (103/152) 56 (141/252) 30 ( 45/152) 11 ( 27/252) 7 ( 11/152) over 6 under -10 over 7 under -6 under -5 under -1 under -2 5.3 -1.6 5.8 -3.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TNGK1 94 (144/154) 100 (156/156) 60 ( 92/154) 21 ( 32/156) 3 ( 4/154) 3 ( 4/156) 1 ( 1/154) over 1 under -10 over 15 over 29 over 22 over 7 over 4 12.6 9.7 16.6 12.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TPOK1 97 ( 83/ 86) 100 ( 86/ 86) 80 ( 69/ 86) 56 ( 48/ 86) 19 ( 16/ 86) 7 ( 6/ 86) 2 ( 2/ 86) under -2 under -10 under -5 under -6 over 6 over 3 over 3 5.0 -1.6 6.0 -2.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TTZM7 96 (148/154) 100 (249/249) 78 (120/154) 61 (153/249) 29 ( 45/154) 22 ( 55/249) 12 ( 19/154) under -1 under -10 under -3 under -11 under -4 under -12 under -7 6.9 -6.9 8.0 -8.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- URHM7 92 (129/140) 100 (140/140) 77 (108/140) 65 ( 91/140) 29 ( 41/140) 9 ( 13/140) 7 ( 10/140) over 3 under -10 under -2 under -15 under -4 over 1 under -2 5.3 -4.1 6.4 -6.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VLYM7 97 (148/152) 100 (229/229) 80 (122/152) 55 (126/229) 20 ( 31/152) 7 ( 17/229) 3 ( 4/152) under -2 under -10 under -5 under -5 over 5 over 3 over 2 4.6 -1.7 5.6 -2.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WVYM7 86 ( 64/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 62 ( 46/ 74) 41 ( 30/ 74) 20 ( 15/ 74) 11 ( 8/ 74) 8 ( 6/ 74) over 9 under -10 over 13 over 9 over 5 under -1 under -3 7.1 3.1 7.6 3.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= WFO - FSD net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AKRI4 93 (148/159) 100 (261/261) 77 (122/159) 60 (157/261) 32 ( 51/159) 11 ( 29/261) 6 ( 9/159) over 2 under -10 under -2 under -10 under -7 under -1 under -1 4.7 -4.1 6.0 -6.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ALTI4 91 (144/159) 100 (261/261) 75 (120/159) 58 (151/261) 34 ( 54/159) 16 ( 43/261) 14 ( 22/159) over 4 under -10 spot-on 0 under -8 under -9 under -6 under -9 6.6 -5.4 6.6 -6.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BRKS2 92 (146/159) 100 (261/261) 72 (115/159) 63 (164/261) 30 ( 47/159) 17 ( 44/261) 9 ( 14/159) over 3 under -10 over 3 under -13 under -5 under -7 under -4 6.4 -4.7 7.6 -6.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CHKI4 82 (130/159) 100 (261/261) 73 (116/159) 49 (128/261) 35 ( 55/159) 19 ( 49/261) 19 ( 31/159) over 13 under -10 over 2 over 1 under -10 under -9 under -14 8.4 -3.9 6.4 -5.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COSS2 94 (150/159) 100 (261/261) 81 (129/159) 68 (178/261) 40 ( 64/159) 26 ( 67/261) 18 ( 29/159) over 1 under -10 under -6 under -18 under -15 under -16 under -13 11.3 -11.0 13.0 -13.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CRRI4 82 (131/159) 100 (261/261) 69 (109/159) 57 (149/261) 33 ( 52/159) 21 ( 55/261) 14 ( 23/159) over 13 under -10 over 6 under -7 under -8 under -11 under -9 9.1 -3.7 8.4 -6.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DERS2 89 (142/159) 100 (261/261) 74 (118/159) 64 (168/261) 33 ( 53/159) 22 ( 57/261) 10 ( 16/159) over 6 under -10 over 1 under -14 under -8 under -12 under -5 8.0 -6.0 9.0 -8.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FORS2 84 (138/165) 100 (274/274) 79 (130/165) 72 (196/274) 44 ( 72/165) 23 ( 63/274) 11 ( 18/165) over 11 under -10 under -4 under -22 under -19 under -13 under -6 12.1 -9.0 13.6 -13.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HOKI4 84 (133/159) 100 (261/261) 74 (117/159) 48 (126/261) 25 ( 40/159) 15 ( 38/261) 8 ( 12/159) over 11 under -10 over 1 over 2 spot-on 0 under -5 under -3 4.6 -0.6 3.6 -2.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HURS2 81 (133/165) 100 (274/274) 76 (126/165) 70 (191/274) 38 ( 62/165) 19 ( 52/274) 7 ( 11/165) over 14 under -10 under -1 under -20 under -13 under -9 under -2 9.9 -5.9 10.6 -10.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HWDI4 94 ( 94/100) 100 (100/100) 77 ( 77/100) 56 ( 56/100) 41 ( 41/100) 24 ( 24/100) 16 ( 16/100) over 1 under -10 under -2 under -6 under -16 under -14 under -11 8.6 -8.3 9.6 -9.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JMEI4 92 (147/159) 100 (261/261) 80 (127/159) 67 (174/261) 40 ( 64/159) 18 ( 48/261) 16 ( 26/159) over 3 under -10 under -5 under -17 under -15 under -8 under -11 9.9 -9.0 11.0 -11.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JRMS2 77 (127/165) 100 (274/274) 72 (119/165) 67 (183/274) 36 ( 59/165) 16 ( 45/274) 6 ( 10/165) over 18 under -10 over 3 under -17 under -11 under -6 under -1 9.4 -3.4 9.4 -8.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LMRI4 72 (115/159) 100 (261/261) 58 ( 92/159) 28 ( 74/261) 25 ( 40/159) 9 ( 23/261) 10 ( 16/159) over 23 under -10 over 17 over 22 spot-on 0 over 1 under -5 11.1 6.9 10.0 6.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LNNI4 88 (140/159) 100 (261/261) 77 (122/159) 65 (169/261) 30 ( 47/159) 23 ( 60/261) 13 ( 21/159) over 7 under -10 under -2 under -15 under -5 under -13 under -8 8.6 -6.6 9.0 -9.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LUVM5 87 (138/159) 100 (261/261) 76 (121/159) 64 (167/261) 40 ( 63/159) 20 ( 53/261) 9 ( 15/159) over 8 under -10 under -1 under -14 under -15 under -10 under -4 8.9 -6.6 10.0 -10.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MIFI4 87 ( 68/ 78) 100 ( 78/ 78) 78 ( 61/ 78) 47 ( 37/ 78) 14 ( 11/ 78) 5 ( 4/ 78) 3 ( 2/ 78) over 8 under -10 under -3 over 3 over 11 over 5 over 2 6.0 2.3 6.4 1.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MRLI4 40 ( 63/159) 100 (261/261) 28 ( 45/159) 16 ( 42/261) 6 ( 9/159) 1 ( 3/261) 0 ( 0/159) over 55 under -10 over 47 over 34 over 19 over 9 over 5 25.6 22.7 23.8 19.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MTVS2 92 (152/165) 100 (274/274) 90 (148/165) 79 (216/274) 45 ( 74/165) 26 ( 72/274) 12 ( 20/165) over 3 under -10 under -15 under -29 under -20 under -16 under -7 14.3 -13.4 18.0 -18.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PKRS2 98 (161/164) 100 (273/273) 97 (159/164) 92 (250/273) 74 (122/164) 59 (160/273) 44 ( 72/164) under -3 under -10 under -22 under -42 under -49 under -49 under -39 30.6 -30.6 34.4 -34.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RAPI4 81 (129/159) 100 (250/250) 70 (112/159) 57 (143/250) 29 ( 46/159) 18 ( 44/250) 8 ( 12/159) over 14 under -10 over 5 under -7 under -4 under -8 under -3 7.3 -1.9 6.8 -4.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RKVI4 76 (121/159) 100 (261/261) 67 (106/159) 64 (166/261) 26 ( 42/159) 22 ( 58/261) 9 ( 15/159) over 19 under -10 over 8 under -14 under -1 under -12 under -4 9.7 -2.0 9.0 -5.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SCOS2 86 (142/165) 100 (274/274) 81 (134/165) 76 (207/274) 45 ( 73/164) 19 ( 51/274) 10 ( 16/164) over 9 under -10 under -6 under -26 under -20 under -9 under -5 12.1 -9.6 14.2 -14.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFLS2 69 (110/159) 100 (261/261) 64 (102/159) 51 (134/261) 27 ( 43/159) 12 ( 31/261) 6 ( 10/159) over 26 under -10 over 11 under -1 under -2 under -2 under -1 7.6 3.0 5.2 -0.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHLI4 63 (100/159) 100 (261/261) 50 ( 80/159) 28 ( 74/261) 23 ( 37/159) 5 ( 13/261) 4 ( 6/159) over 32 under -10 over 25 over 22 over 2 over 5 over 1 13.9 11.0 12.8 8.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SIFS2 94 (149/159) 100 (261/261) 82 (131/159) 78 (203/261) 42 ( 66/159) 31 ( 80/261) 21 ( 33/159) over 1 under -10 under -7 under -28 under -17 under -21 under -16 14.3 -14.0 16.6 -16.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SIOI4 87 (139/159) 100 (261/261) 74 (118/159) 71 (185/261) 45 ( 71/159) 39 (102/261) 22 ( 35/159) over 8 under -10 over 1 under -21 under -20 under -29 under -17 15.1 -12.6 16.2 -15.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPOI4 96 (153/159) 100 (185/185) 89 (142/159) 77 (142/185) 48 ( 77/159) 27 ( 50/185) 16 ( 26/159) under -1 under -10 under -14 under -27 under -23 under -17 under -11 14.7 -14.7 18.2 -18.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPWI4 78 (124/159) 100 (261/261) 72 (115/159) 54 (140/261) 26 ( 42/159) 11 ( 29/261) 9 ( 14/159) over 17 under -10 over 3 under -4 under -1 under -1 under -4 5.7 0.0 3.8 -2.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SSCN1 77 ( 57/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 65 ( 48/ 74) 41 ( 30/ 74) 26 ( 19/ 74) 16 ( 12/ 74) 14 ( 10/ 74) over 18 under -10 over 10 over 9 under -1 under -6 under -9 9.0 1.6 7.2 0.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- STUI4 51 ( 81/159) 100 (260/260) 45 ( 71/159) 20 ( 53/260) 22 ( 35/159) 7 ( 19/260) 9 ( 14/159) over 44 under -10 over 30 over 30 over 3 over 3 under -4 17.7 13.7 15.2 11.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SXCI4 69 (109/159) 100 (261/261) 57 ( 91/159) 31 ( 82/261) 20 ( 32/159) 11 ( 28/261) 8 ( 13/159) over 26 under -10 over 18 over 19 over 5 under -1 under -3 11.7 7.7 10.6 6.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SXFS2 90 (143/159) 100 (261/261) 77 (123/159) 64 (167/261) 25 ( 40/159) 18 ( 47/261) 3 ( 4/159) over 5 under -10 under -2 under -14 spot-on 0 under -8 over 2 5.9 -3.9 6.8 -6.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VERS2 86 (141/164) 100 (273/273) 76 (125/164) 68 (187/273) 38 ( 62/164) 16 ( 44/273) 7 ( 11/164) over 9 under -10 under -1 under -18 under -13 under -6 under -2 8.4 -5.9 9.6 -9.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VRPS2 89 (146/164) 100 (273/273) 83 (136/164) 75 (205/273) 43 ( 71/164) 24 ( 65/273) 13 ( 22/164) over 6 under -10 under -8 under -25 under -18 under -14 under -8 12.7 -11.0 15.0 -15.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YNNS2 87 (142/164) 100 (189/189) 82 (134/164) 69 (131/189) 41 ( 67/164) 17 ( 32/189) 8 ( 13/164) over 8 under -10 under -7 under -19 under -16 under -7 under -3 10.0 -7.7 11.8 -11.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= WFO - GGW net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BCHM8 86 (166/192) 100 (206/206) 81 (155/192) 74 (152/206) 56 (107/192) 30 ( 61/206) 15 ( 29/192) over 9 under -10 under -6 under -24 under -31 under -20 under -10 15.7 -13.1 18.2 -18.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CLBM8 86 ( 76/ 88) 100 ( 88/ 88) 85 ( 75/ 88) 78 ( 69/ 88) 73 ( 64/ 88) 60 ( 53/ 88) 48 ( 42/ 88) over 9 under -10 under -10 under -28 under -48 under -50 under -43 28.3 -25.7 29.2 -29.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DMRM8 90 (172/192) 100 (206/206) 86 (165/192) 78 (160/206) 64 (123/192) 46 ( 94/206) 33 ( 64/192) over 5 under -10 under -11 under -28 under -39 under -36 under -28 22.4 -21.0 24.8 -24.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLNM8 87 ( 94/108) 100 (108/108) 87 ( 94/108) 85 ( 92/108) 79 ( 85/108) 52 ( 56/108) 44 ( 47/108) over 8 under -10 under -12 under -35 under -54 under -42 under -39 28.6 -26.3 30.6 -30.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLWM8 79 (152/192) 100 (265/265) 72 (138/192) 58 (154/265) 41 ( 79/192) 22 ( 59/265) 18 ( 35/192) over 16 under -10 over 3 under -8 under -16 under -12 under -13 11.1 -5.7 9.8 -8.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MALM8 79 (152/192) 100 (265/265) 76 (146/192) 56 (149/265) 48 ( 93/192) 23 ( 61/265) 21 ( 40/192) over 16 under -10 under -1 under -6 under -23 under -13 under -16 12.1 -7.6 10.6 -10.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSBM8 94 (134/142) 100 (142/142) 91 (129/142) 85 (120/142) 76 (108/142) 65 ( 93/142) 52 ( 74/142) over 1 under -10 under -16 under -35 under -51 under -55 under -47 30.7 -30.4 33.4 -33.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NSHM8 84 (162/192) 100 (265/265) 79 (151/192) 74 (195/265) 53 (102/192) 35 ( 92/265) 24 ( 46/192) over 11 under -10 under -4 under -24 under -28 under -25 under -19 17.3 -14.1 18.2 -18.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PLRM8 93 (179/192) 100 (265/265) 91 (174/192) 88 (233/265) 71 (136/192) 47 (125/265) 34 ( 66/192) over 2 under -10 under -16 under -38 under -46 under -37 under -29 25.4 -24.9 29.4 -29.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SACM8 84 (161/192) 100 (258/258) 82 (157/192) 66 (169/258) 47 ( 91/192) 27 ( 70/258) 22 ( 42/192) over 11 under -10 under -7 under -16 under -22 under -17 under -17 14.3 -11.1 14.4 -14.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SIDM8 98 (106/108) 100 (108/108) 95 (103/108) 90 ( 97/108) 83 ( 90/108) 55 ( 59/108) 33 ( 36/108) under -3 under -10 under -20 under -40 under -58 under -45 under -28 29.1 -29.1 34.6 -34.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TMPM8 82 (157/192) 100 (265/265) 76 (145/192) 69 (182/265) 51 ( 97/192) 28 ( 74/265) 20 ( 38/192) over 13 under -10 under -1 under -19 under -26 under -18 under -15 14.6 -10.9 14.8 -14.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WPTM8 88 ( 77/ 88) 100 ( 88/ 88) 86 ( 76/ 88) 78 ( 69/ 88) 74 ( 65/ 88) 53 ( 47/ 88) 44 ( 39/ 88) over 7 under -10 under -11 under -28 under -49 under -43 under -39 26.7 -24.7 28.2 -28.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= WFO - GID net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ALDN1 45 ( 70/154) 100 (196/196) 42 ( 64/154) 34 ( 67/196) 9 ( 14/154) 5 ( 9/196) 0 ( 0/154) over 50 under -10 over 33 over 16 over 16 over 5 over 5 19.3 16.4 16.0 12.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVN1 54 ( 84/155) 100 (185/185) 43 ( 66/155) 21 ( 38/185) 16 ( 25/155) 11 ( 21/185) 12 ( 19/155) over 41 under -10 over 32 over 29 over 9 under -1 under -7 18.4 13.3 16.2 11.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BLTK1 85 (123/144) 100 (144/144) 78 (112/144) 60 ( 86/144) 22 ( 32/144) 3 ( 4/144) 1 ( 1/144) over 10 under -10 under -3 under -10 over 3 over 7 over 4 6.7 0.1 6.6 -2.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAMN1 48 ( 75/155) 100 (159/159) 46 ( 71/155) 40 ( 64/159) 23 ( 36/155) 13 ( 21/159) 10 ( 16/155) over 47 under -10 over 29 over 10 over 2 under -3 under -5 15.1 10.0 10.8 5.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DWEN1 88 (133/152) 100 (228/228) 67 (102/152) 52 (118/228) 18 ( 28/152) 7 ( 15/228) 1 ( 2/152) over 7 under -10 over 8 under -2 over 7 over 3 over 4 5.9 2.4 6.0 1.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FULN1 78 (119/153) 100 (220/220) 45 ( 69/153) 33 ( 73/220) 12 ( 19/153) 13 ( 29/220) 4 ( 6/153) over 17 under -10 over 30 over 17 over 13 under -3 over 1 13.0 9.3 14.6 9.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GDEK1 97 (148/153) 100 (197/197) 91 (139/153) 68 (134/197) 34 ( 52/153) 18 ( 35/197) 6 ( 9/153) under -2 under -10 under -16 under -18 under -9 under -8 under -1 9.1 -9.1 12.2 -12.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GELN1 89 (136/153) 100 (220/220) 86 (131/153) 70 (155/220) 52 ( 79/153) 39 ( 85/220) 24 ( 36/153) over 6 under -10 under -11 under -20 under -27 under -29 under -19 17.4 -15.7 19.4 -19.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GEON1 95 (146/153) 100 (174/174) 69 (105/153) 45 ( 79/174) 20 ( 30/153) 7 ( 12/174) 4 ( 6/153) spot-on 0 under -10 over 6 over 5 over 5 over 3 over 1 4.3 1.4 5.8 1.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GIDN1 60 ( 29/ 48) 100 ( 48/ 48) 52 ( 25/ 48) 31 ( 15/ 48) 15 ( 7/ 48) 0 ( 0/ 48) 0 ( 0/ 48) over 35 under -10 over 23 over 19 over 10 over 10 over 5 16.0 13.1 14.4 10.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GRIN1 92 (141/154) 100 (169/169) 89 (137/154) 71 (120/169) 52 ( 80/154) 30 ( 51/169) 19 ( 30/154) over 3 under -10 under -14 under -21 under -27 under -20 under -14 15.6 -14.7 18.4 -18.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GUIN1 89 (136/152) 100 (155/155) 76 (116/152) 54 ( 84/155) 34 ( 52/152) 14 ( 22/155) 3 ( 5/152) over 6 under -10 under -1 under -4 under -9 under -4 over 2 5.1 -2.9 5.6 -5.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HDYN1 88 (133/152) 100 (155/155) 69 (105/152) 46 ( 72/155) 26 ( 39/152) 10 ( 16/155) 6 ( 9/152) over 7 under -10 over 6 over 4 under -1 spot-on 0 under -1 4.1 0.7 4.2 -0.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KEAN1 86 (133/154) 100 (170/170) 81 (125/154) 65 (110/170) 43 ( 66/154) 27 ( 46/170) 23 ( 35/154) over 9 under -10 under -6 under -15 under -18 under -17 under -18 13.3 -10.7 13.2 -13.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ORNN1 69 (107/155) 100 (159/159) 59 ( 92/155) 43 ( 69/159) 26 ( 40/155) 14 ( 22/159) 10 ( 16/155) over 26 under -10 over 16 over 7 under -1 under -4 under -5 9.9 4.1 7.6 1.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OSBK1 90 (130/144) 100 (144/144) 82 (118/144) 64 ( 92/144) 28 ( 41/144) 4 ( 6/144) 1 ( 2/144) over 5 under -10 under -7 under -14 under -3 over 6 over 4 7.0 -2.7 8.0 -5.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OVTN1 89 (115/129) 100 (129/129) 83 (107/129) 61 ( 79/129) 36 ( 47/129) 26 ( 33/129) 20 ( 26/129) over 6 under -10 under -8 under -11 under -11 under -16 under -15 11.0 -9.3 11.2 -11.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PTIK1 98 (152/155) 100 (158/158) 90 (140/155) 72 (113/158) 27 ( 42/155) 6 ( 10/158) 3 ( 5/155) under -3 under -10 under -15 under -22 under -2 over 4 over 2 8.3 -6.6 10.6 -9.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RVRN1 93 (141/151) 100 (153/153) 85 (129/151) 73 (111/153) 46 ( 69/151) 20 ( 31/153) 13 ( 20/151) over 2 under -10 under -10 under -23 under -21 under -10 under -8 12.0 -11.4 14.8 -14.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SKTK1 99 (152/153) 100 (197/197) 99 (151/153) 88 (173/197) 61 ( 93/153) 30 ( 60/197) 16 ( 24/153) under -4 under -10 under -24 under -38 under -36 under -20 under -11 20.4 -20.4 25.6 -25.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SMIN1 97 (149/153) 100 (220/220) 76 (117/153) 51 (112/220) 32 ( 49/153) 14 ( 31/220) 8 ( 13/153) under -2 under -10 under -1 under -1 under -7 under -4 under -3 4.0 -4.0 4.6 -4.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPLN1 99 (151/153) 100 (220/220) 93 (142/153) 74 (163/220) 50 ( 77/153) 38 ( 83/220) 24 ( 36/153) under -4 under -10 under -18 under -24 under -25 under -28 under -19 18.3 -18.3 21.0 -21.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPUN1 95 (145/153) 100 (220/220) 85 (130/153) 72 (158/220) 46 ( 71/153) 38 ( 83/220) 27 ( 41/153) spot-on 0 under -10 under -10 under -22 under -21 under -28 under -22 16.1 -16.1 18.2 -18.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- STMN1 86 (134/155) 100 (185/185) 82 (127/155) 61 (112/185) 29 ( 45/155) 16 ( 29/185) 10 ( 16/155) over 9 under -10 under -7 under -11 under -4 under -6 under -5 7.4 -4.9 7.6 -7.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SWTN1 92 (140/153) 100 (220/220) 71 (109/153) 36 ( 80/220) 12 ( 18/153) 5 ( 10/220) 4 ( 6/153) over 3 under -10 over 4 over 14 over 13 over 5 over 1 7.1 4.3 9.2 5.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WDRK1 97 (151/155) 100 (159/159) 88 (136/155) 64 (102/159) 36 ( 56/155) 18 ( 28/159) 10 ( 16/155) under -2 under -10 under -13 under -14 under -11 under -8 under -5 9.0 -9.0 11.2 -11.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WODK1 87 (130/149) 100 (149/149) 85 (126/149) 62 ( 93/149) 37 ( 55/149) 9 ( 14/149) 1 ( 2/149) over 8 under -10 under -10 under -12 under -12 over 1 over 4 8.1 -4.4 9.0 -8.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= WFO - GLD net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEKN1 35 ( 55/155) 100 (159/159) 34 ( 53/155) 25 ( 40/159) 10 ( 16/155) 4 ( 7/159) 2 ( 3/155) over 60 under -10 over 41 over 25 over 15 over 6 over 3 22.9 20.0 19.4 15.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BENN1 53 ( 82/155) 100 (185/185) 51 ( 79/155) 56 (103/185) 42 ( 65/155) 37 ( 68/185) 30 ( 46/155) over 42 under -10 over 24 under -6 under -17 under -27 under -25 21.6 -2.7 16.8 -7.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CDBK1 97 (150/155) 100 (185/185) 95 (147/155) 62 (114/185) 45 ( 70/155) 17 ( 32/185) 9 ( 14/155) under -2 under -10 under -20 under -12 under -20 under -7 under -4 10.7 -10.7 13.8 -13.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CULN1 88 (136/155) 100 (159/159) 84 (130/155) 71 (113/159) 55 ( 85/155) 34 ( 54/159) 28 ( 43/155) over 7 under -10 under -9 under -21 under -30 under -24 under -23 17.7 -15.7 18.8 -18.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HAIN1 59 ( 91/155) 100 (185/185) 57 ( 88/155) 51 ( 95/185) 34 ( 53/155) 24 ( 44/185) 20 ( 31/155) over 36 under -10 over 18 under -1 under -9 under -14 under -15 14.7 0.7 10.4 -3.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LDLK1 2 ( 3/155) 100 (185/185) 2 ( 3/155) 2 ( 3/185) 0 ( 0/155) 0 ( 0/185) 0 ( 0/155) over 93 under -10 over 73 over 48 over 25 over 10 over 5 37.7 34.9 33.2 29.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MCKN1 97 (150/155) 100 (159/159) 91 (141/155) 65 (103/159) 37 ( 58/155) 19 ( 31/159) 15 ( 24/155) under -2 under -10 under -16 under -15 under -12 under -9 under -10 10.6 -10.6 12.4 -12.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MKRN1 73 (113/155) 100 (159/159) 71 (110/155) 56 ( 89/159) 38 ( 59/155) 19 ( 31/159) 12 ( 19/155) over 22 under -10 over 4 under -6 under -13 under -9 under -7 10.1 -2.7 8.4 -6.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NCRK1 82 (127/155) 100 (185/185) 73 (113/155) 62 (115/185) 32 ( 50/155) 15 ( 27/185) 7 ( 11/155) over 13 under -10 over 2 under -12 under -7 under -5 under -2 7.3 -3.0 7.2 -6.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OKYK1 73 (112/153) 100 (197/197) 65 ( 99/153) 46 ( 91/197) 22 ( 33/153) 14 ( 27/197) 9 ( 14/153) over 22 under -10 over 10 over 4 over 3 under -4 under -4 8.1 3.0 6.2 0.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- STTN1 71 (110/155) 100 (159/159) 70 (109/155) 58 ( 93/159) 46 ( 72/155) 36 ( 57/159) 29 ( 45/155) over 24 under -10 over 5 under -8 under -21 under -26 under -24 16.9 -8.6 14.0 -12.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= WFO - ICT net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ELWK1 100 (153/153) 100 (197/197) 80 (123/153) 49 ( 96/197) 21 ( 32/153) 4 ( 7/197) 1 ( 2/153) under -5 under -10 under -5 over 1 over 4 over 6 over 4 5.0 -0.7 5.2 -0.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LINK1 94 (135/144) 100 (144/144) 86 (124/144) 68 ( 98/144) 22 ( 32/144) 6 ( 8/144) 4 ( 6/144) over 1 under -10 under -11 under -18 over 3 over 4 over 1 6.9 -4.3 9.2 -6.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LNSK1 96 (138/144) 100 (144/144) 88 (126/144) 63 ( 90/144) 27 ( 39/144) 6 ( 8/144) 1 ( 1/144) under -1 under -10 under -13 under -13 under -2 over 4 over 4 6.7 -4.4 8.4 -6.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MTRK1 92 (133/144) 100 (144/144) 82 (118/144) 60 ( 86/144) 23 ( 33/144) 7 ( 10/144) 1 ( 2/144) over 3 under -10 under -7 under -10 over 2 over 3 over 4 5.6 -2.1 6.4 -4.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NCMK1 79 (114/144) 100 (144/144) 51 ( 74/144) 24 ( 35/144) 5 ( 7/144) 2 ( 3/144) 1 ( 1/144) over 16 under -10 over 24 over 26 over 20 over 8 over 4 15.4 12.6 17.6 13.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSLK1 97 (149/153) 100 (159/159) 84 (129/153) 58 ( 92/159) 29 ( 44/153) 9 ( 15/159) 3 ( 5/153) under -2 under -10 under -9 under -8 under -4 over 1 over 2 5.1 -4.3 6.4 -6.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RUSK1 90 (138/153) 100 (197/197) 78 (120/153) 60 (118/197) 28 ( 43/153) 12 ( 23/197) 7 ( 11/153) over 5 under -10 under -3 under -10 under -3 under -2 under -2 5.0 -3.6 5.6 -5.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SLNK1 92 (143/155) 100 (158/158) 88 (136/155) 62 ( 98/158) 22 ( 34/155) 4 ( 7/158) 1 ( 2/155) over 3 under -10 under -13 under -12 over 3 over 6 over 4 7.3 -2.7 8.8 -5.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= WFO - LBF net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BDYN1 71 (109/154) 100 (169/169) 66 (102/154) 50 ( 84/169) 31 ( 47/154) 17 ( 29/169) 14 ( 21/154) over 24 under -10 over 9 spot-on 0 under -6 under -7 under -9 9.3 0.1 6.4 -2.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EWIN1 97 (150/154) 100 (208/208) 97 (150/154) 87 (181/208) 64 ( 99/154) 41 ( 86/208) 25 ( 38/154) under -2 under -10 under -22 under -37 under -39 under -31 under -20 23.0 -23.0 27.8 -27.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEWN1 78 (113/144) 100 (150/150) 76 (109/144) 71 (106/150) 60 ( 86/144) 51 ( 77/150) 47 ( 67/144) over 17 under -10 under -1 under -21 under -35 under -41 under -42 23.9 -19.0 21.6 -21.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LSON1 78 (112/144) 100 (150/150) 70 (101/144) 63 ( 95/150) 55 ( 79/144) 45 ( 68/150) 38 ( 55/144) over 17 under -10 over 5 under -13 under -30 under -35 under -33 20.4 -14.1 18.6 -16.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NPSN1 88 (128/145) 100 (169/169) 83 (121/145) 70 (118/169) 47 ( 68/145) 35 ( 59/169) 26 ( 37/145) over 7 under -10 under -8 under -20 under -22 under -25 under -21 16.1 -14.1 17.0 -17.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NPTN1 87 (125/144) 100 (150/150) 83 (119/144) 77 (115/150) 71 (102/144) 55 ( 82/150) 45 ( 65/144) over 8 under -10 under -8 under -27 under -46 under -45 under -40 26.3 -24.0 27.2 -27.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PALN1 88 (137/155) 100 (159/159) 85 (132/155) 78 (124/159) 64 ( 99/155) 45 ( 71/159) 32 ( 49/155) over 7 under -10 under -10 under -28 under -39 under -35 under -27 22.3 -20.3 24.4 -24.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PASN1 96 (149/155) 100 (185/185) 90 (139/155) 79 (146/185) 63 ( 97/155) 39 ( 72/185) 28 ( 44/155) under -1 under -10 under -15 under -29 under -38 under -29 under -23 20.7 -20.7 24.2 -24.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSON1 60 ( 88/146) 100 (170/170) 52 ( 76/146) 45 ( 77/170) 27 ( 39/146) 21 ( 36/170) 13 ( 19/146) over 35 under -10 over 23 over 5 under -2 under -11 under -8 13.4 4.6 10.2 1.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPKN1 95 (149/157) 100 (219/219) 96 (149/156) 92 (202/219) 84 (131/156) 62 (135/219) 47 ( 74/156) spot-on 0 under -10 under -21 under -42 under -59 under -52 under -42 32.3 -32.3 36.8 -36.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= WFO - LSX net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CMSM7 81 ( 60/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 64 ( 47/ 74) 41 ( 30/ 74) 15 ( 11/ 74) 5 ( 4/ 74) 0 ( 0/ 74) over 14 under -10 over 11 over 9 over 10 over 5 over 5 9.1 6.3 9.0 5.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HRNM7 61 ( 45/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 54 ( 40/ 74) 36 ( 27/ 74) 16 ( 12/ 74) 5 ( 4/ 74) 0 ( 0/ 74) over 34 under -10 over 21 over 14 over 9 over 5 over 5 14.0 11.1 11.8 7.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JCMM7 93 (142/152) 100 (229/229) 78 (118/152) 62 (141/229) 30 ( 45/152) 10 ( 22/229) 5 ( 8/152) over 2 under -10 under -3 under -12 under -5 spot-on 0 spot-on 0 4.6 -4.0 6.0 -6.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JFFM7 85 ( 63/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 70 ( 52/ 74) 39 ( 29/ 74) 14 ( 10/ 74) 3 ( 2/ 74) 0 ( 0/ 74) over 10 under -10 over 5 over 11 over 11 over 7 over 5 8.4 5.6 8.8 4.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MOAM7 89 ( 64/ 72) 100 ( 72/ 72) 79 ( 57/ 72) 60 ( 43/ 72) 32 ( 23/ 72) 17 ( 12/ 72) 6 ( 4/ 72) over 6 under -10 under -4 under -10 under -7 under -7 under -1 6.4 -4.7 7.6 -7.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RIFM7 99 (150/152) 100 (229/229) 91 (139/152) 64 (146/229) 28 ( 42/152) 15 ( 35/229) 11 ( 16/152) under -4 under -10 under -16 under -14 under -3 under -5 under -6 8.3 -8.3 9.6 -9.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SCLM7 91 ( 67/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 74 ( 55/ 74) 47 ( 35/ 74) 12 ( 9/ 74) 1 ( 1/ 74) 0 ( 0/ 74) over 4 under -10 over 1 over 3 over 13 over 9 over 5 6.4 3.6 7.2 3.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- STTM7 96 ( 71/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 93 ( 69/ 74) 84 ( 62/ 74) 51 ( 38/ 74) 16 ( 12/ 74) 4 ( 3/ 74) under -1 under -10 under -18 under -34 under -26 under -6 over 1 13.7 -13.4 18.8 -18.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHGM7 95 ( 70/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 78 ( 58/ 74) 50 ( 37/ 74) 16 ( 12/ 74) 4 ( 3/ 74) 0 ( 0/ 74) spot-on 0 under -10 under -3 spot-on 0 over 9 over 6 over 5 4.7 1.0 5.6 0.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WPHM7 97 (148/152) 100 (229/229) 91 (139/152) 82 (188/229) 49 ( 74/152) 30 ( 68/229) 20 ( 31/152) under -2 under -10 under -16 under -32 under -24 under -20 under -15 17.0 -17.0 20.4 -20.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= WFO - OAX net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ABRN1 88 (135/153) 100 (253/253) 69 (105/153) 60 (152/253) 35 ( 54/153) 14 ( 35/253) 7 ( 10/153) over 7 under -10 over 6 under -10 under -10 under -4 under -2 7.0 -3.3 8.0 -5.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ASLN1 96 (148/154) 100 (169/169) 84 (130/154) 65 (110/169) 42 ( 64/154) 12 ( 20/169) 5 ( 8/154) under -1 under -10 under -9 under -15 under -17 under -2 spot-on 0 7.7 -7.7 10.6 -10.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BARN1 90 (137/152) 100 (228/228) 72 (110/152) 43 ( 97/228) 20 ( 30/152) 7 ( 16/228) 5 ( 7/152) over 5 under -10 over 3 over 7 over 5 over 3 spot-on 0 4.7 1.9 5.6 1.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEAN1 91 (139/152) 100 (228/228) 75 (114/152) 50 (115/228) 23 ( 35/152) 13 ( 29/228) 4 ( 6/152) over 4 under -10 spot-on 0 spot-on 0 over 2 under -3 over 1 2.9 -0.9 3.0 -2.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BLAN1 86 ( 64/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 69 ( 51/ 74) 53 ( 39/ 74) 36 ( 27/ 74) 28 ( 21/ 74) 20 ( 15/ 74) over 9 under -10 over 6 under -3 under -11 under -18 under -15 10.3 -6.0 9.6 -7.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BRON1 74 ( 54/ 73) 100 ( 73/ 73) 55 ( 40/ 73) 29 ( 21/ 73) 18 ( 13/ 73) 8 ( 6/ 73) 5 ( 4/ 73) over 21 under -10 over 20 over 21 over 7 over 2 spot-on 0 11.6 8.7 12.0 8.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CLBN1 92 (142/154) 100 (196/196) 80 (123/154) 48 ( 95/196) 20 ( 31/154) 6 ( 12/196) 3 ( 5/154) over 3 under -10 under -5 over 2 over 5 over 4 over 2 4.4 0.1 5.2 -0.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CRTN1 88 (134/152) 100 (228/228) 74 (113/152) 51 (117/228) 27 ( 41/152) 7 ( 17/228) 2 ( 3/152) over 7 under -10 over 1 under -1 under -2 over 3 over 3 3.9 0.1 3.4 -1.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DCTN1 72 ( 53/ 74) 100 ( 74/ 74) 59 ( 44/ 74) 46 ( 34/ 74) 30 ( 22/ 74) 20 ( 15/ 74) 15 ( 11/ 74) over 23 under -10 over 16 over 4 under -5 under -10 under -10 11.1 1.1 9.0 -1.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DNCN1 91 (140/154) 100 (169/169) 86 (132/154) 68 (115/169) 48 ( 74/154) 28 ( 47/169) 17 ( 26/154) over 4 under -10 under -11 under -18 under -23 under -18 under -12 13.7 -12.6 16.0 -16.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DRGN1 81 (123/152) 100 (228/228) 66 (101/152) 40 ( 92/228) 14 ( 21/152) 5 ( 12/228) 1 ( 1/152) over 14 under -10 over 9 over 10 over 11 over 5 over 4 9.0 6.1 9.0 5.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FLLN1 97 (148/153) 100 (253/253) 73 (112/153) 51 (130/253) 35 ( 54/153) 15 ( 37/253) 11 ( 17/153) under -2 under -10 over 2 under -1 under -10 under -5 under -6 5.1 -4.6 5.6 -4.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FRBN1 95 (145/152) 100 (228/228) 70 (106/152) 53 (120/228) 23 ( 35/152) 9 ( 21/228) 5 ( 7/152) spot-on 0 under -10 over 5 under -3 over 2 over 1 spot-on 0 3.0 -0.7 4.2 -1.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GRNN1 99 (152/154) 100 (196/196) 88 (136/154) 67 (131/196) 34 ( 52/154) 11 ( 21/196) 5 ( 7/154) under -4 under -10 under -13 under -17 under -9 under -1 spot-on 0 7.7 -7.7 10.0 -10.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HBLN1 95 (146/153) 100 (253/253) 76 (116/153) 55 (140/253) 33 ( 51/153) 17 ( 43/253) 8 ( 12/153) spot-on 0 under -10 under -1 under -5 under -8 under -7 under -3 4.9 -4.9 6.2 -6.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HMBI4 95 (145/153) 100 (253/253) 75 (115/153) 51 (130/253) 18 ( 28/153) 5 ( 12/253) 3 ( 4/153) spot-on 0 under -10 spot-on 0 under -1 over 7 over 5 over 2 3.6 0.4 4.6 0.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HNKI4 90 (138/153) 100 (253/253) 63 ( 96/153) 47 (118/253) 24 ( 37/153) 6 ( 16/253) 5 ( 7/153) over 5 under -10 over 12 over 3 over 1 over 4 spot-on 0 5.0 2.1 6.0 2.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ICLI4 98 (150/153) 100 (253/253) 86 (132/153) 63 (160/253) 41 ( 62/152) 24 ( 60/253) 11 ( 17/152) under -3 under -10 under -11 under -13 under -16 under -14 under -6 10.4 -10.4 12.8 -12.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ITHN1 95 (147/154) 100 (196/196) 76 (117/154) 54 (105/196) 14 ( 21/154) 4 ( 7/196) 1 ( 2/154) spot-on 0 under -10 under -1 under -4 over 11 over 6 over 4 5.1 0.9 6.4 0.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LCNN1 98 (151/154) 100 (196/196) 90 (139/154) 70 (137/196) 32 ( 50/154) 12 ( 24/196) 5 ( 8/154) under -3 under -10 under -15 under -20 under -7 under -2 spot-on 0 8.1 -8.1 10.8 -10.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LESN1 97 (150/154) 100 (168/168) 91 (140/154) 68 (115/168) 39 ( 60/154) 19 ( 32/168) 12 ( 18/154) under -2 under -10 under -16 under -18 under -14 under -9 under -7 10.9 -10.9 13.4 -13.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LGNI4 90 (137/153) 100 (253/253) 69 (106/153) 47 (120/253) 25 ( 38/153) 11 ( 28/253) 7 ( 10/153) over 5 under -10 over 6 over 3 spot-on 0 under -1 under -2 3.9 0.1 4.0 -0.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LOUN1 98 (151/154) 100 (169/169) 86 (132/154) 67 (114/169) 34 ( 52/154) 15 ( 26/169) 5 ( 8/154) under -3 under -10 under -11 under -17 under -9 under -5 spot-on 0 7.9 -7.9 10.4 -10.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPI4 92 (147/159) 100 (261/261) 76 (121/159) 61 (160/261) 35 ( 55/159) 28 ( 73/261) 23 ( 36/159) over 3 under -10 under -1 under -11 under -10 under -18 under -18 10.1 -9.3 10.0 -10.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NBDN1 97 (150/154) 100 (169/169) 90 (138/154) 72 (122/169) 47 ( 72/154) 28 ( 47/169) 14 ( 21/154) under -2 under -10 under -15 under -22 under -22 under -18 under -9 14.0 -14.0 17.4 -17.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NEBN1 74 ( 54/ 73) 100 ( 73/ 73) 53 ( 39/ 73) 33 ( 24/ 73) 23 ( 17/ 73) 14 ( 10/ 73) 8 ( 6/ 73) over 21 under -10 over 22 over 17 over 2 under -4 under -3 11.3 6.4 11.0 5.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NFKN1 97 (150/154) 100 (208/208) 90 (139/154) 75 (155/208) 46 ( 71/154) 25 ( 52/208) 17 ( 26/154) under -2 under -10 under -15 under -25 under -21 under -15 under -12 14.3 -14.3 17.2 -17.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NKRN1 95 (141/149) 100 (149/149) 71 (106/149) 53 ( 79/149) 33 ( 49/149) 15 ( 22/149) 4 ( 6/149) spot-on 0 under -10 over 4 under -3 under -8 under -5 over 1 4.4 -3.0 6.0 -4.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NLIN1 84 (130/154) 100 (208/208) 60 ( 92/154) 31 ( 64/208) 17 ( 26/154) 10 ( 21/208) 6 ( 9/154) over 11 under -10 over 15 over 19 over 8 spot-on 0 under -1 9.1 6.0 10.4 6.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OMHN1 58 ( 42/ 73) 100 ( 73/ 73) 40 ( 29/ 73) 32 ( 23/ 73) 19 ( 14/ 73) 14 ( 10/ 73) 8 ( 6/ 73) over 37 under -10 over 35 over 18 over 6 under -4 under -3 16.1 11.3 14.6 9.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PLGN1 95 (147/154) 100 (208/208) 88 (136/154) 69 (144/208) 32 ( 50/154) 17 ( 36/208) 6 ( 9/154) spot-on 0 under -10 under -13 under -19 under -7 under -7 under -1 8.1 -8.1 11.2 -11.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRCN1 95 (146/154) 100 (208/208) 90 (138/154) 72 (150/208) 41 ( 63/154) 23 ( 47/208) 17 ( 26/154) spot-on 0 under -10 under -15 under -22 under -16 under -13 under -12 12.6 -12.6 15.2 -15.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PSGI4 92 (140/153) 100 (253/253) 76 (116/153) 58 (147/253) 44 ( 67/153) 23 ( 59/253) 21 ( 32/153) over 3 under -10 under -1 under -8 under -19 under -13 under -16 10.0 -9.1 10.2 -10.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PTMN1 59 ( 24/ 41) 100 ( 41/ 41) 34 ( 14/ 41) 15 ( 6/ 41) 5 ( 2/ 41) 0 ( 0/ 41) 0 ( 0/ 41) over 36 under -10 over 41 over 35 over 20 over 10 over 5 22.4 19.6 23.2 19.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RDOI4 90 (138/153) 100 (253/253) 75 (114/153) 58 (146/253) 24 ( 37/153) 6 ( 16/253) 3 ( 5/153) over 5 under -10 spot-on 0 under -8 over 1 over 4 over 2 4.3 -0.9 4.6 -2.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RDPI4 93 (143/153) 100 (253/253) 71 (109/153) 45 (113/253) 19 ( 29/153) 8 ( 19/253) 5 ( 7/153) over 2 under -10 over 4 over 5 over 6 over 2 spot-on 0 4.1 1.3 5.4 1.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROCN1 97 (149/154) 100 (196/196) 82 (126/154) 66 (130/196) 42 ( 64/154) 19 ( 38/196) 11 ( 17/154) under -2 under -10 under -7 under -16 under -17 under -9 under -6 9.6 -9.6 11.8 -11.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RULN1 74 ( 54/ 73) 100 ( 73/ 73) 60 ( 44/ 73) 34 ( 25/ 73) 22 ( 16/ 73) 12 ( 9/ 73) 7 ( 5/ 73) over 21 under -10 over 15 over 16 over 3 under -2 under -2 9.9 5.9 9.2 4.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SRPN1 97 (147/152) 100 (228/228) 83 (126/152) 65 (149/228) 37 ( 56/152) 22 ( 51/228) 9 ( 13/152) under -2 under -10 under -8 under -15 under -12 under -12 under -4 9.0 -9.0 11.4 -11.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SWDN1 96 (146/152) 100 (228/228) 83 (126/152) 56 (127/228) 30 ( 45/152) 9 ( 21/228) 6 ( 9/152) under -1 under -10 under -8 under -6 under -5 over 1 under -1 4.6 -4.3 6.0 -5.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SWRN1 95 (144/152) 100 (228/228) 83 (126/152) 56 (127/228) 20 ( 30/152) 9 ( 20/228) 4 ( 6/152) spot-on 0 under -10 under -8 under -6 over 5 over 1 over 1 4.4 -2.4 6.0 -3.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TURI4 95 (151/159) 100 (261/261) 84 (133/159) 63 (164/261) 39 ( 62/159) 25 ( 64/261) 17 ( 27/159) spot-on 0 under -10 under -9 under -13 under -14 under -15 under -12 10.4 -10.4 12.2 -12.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UEHN1 95 (147/154) 100 (208/208) 84 (129/154) 61 (126/208) 28 ( 43/154) 14 ( 29/208) 7 ( 11/154) spot-on 0 under -10 under -9 under -11 under -3 under -4 under -2 5.6 -5.6 7.4 -7.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UION1 98 (150/153) 100 (253/253) 82 (126/153) 63 (160/253) 39 ( 60/153) 15 ( 38/253) 5 ( 7/153) under -3 under -10 under -7 under -13 under -14 under -5 spot-on 0 7.4 -7.4 9.8 -9.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VERN1 95 (148/156) 100 (240/240) 83 (130/156) 70 (167/240) 52 ( 81/156) 35 ( 84/240) 22 ( 34/156) spot-on 0 under -10 under -8 under -20 under -27 under -25 under -17 15.3 -15.3 18.0 -18.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VRDN1 96 (150/156) 100 (240/240) 95 (148/156) 92 (220/240) 79 (124/156) 55 (133/240) 48 ( 75/156) under -1 under -10 under -20 under -42 under -54 under -45 under -43 30.7 -30.7 34.2 -34.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WLBN1 89 (135/152) 100 (228/228) 67 (102/152) 47 (107/228) 33 ( 50/152) 11 ( 25/228) 8 ( 12/152) over 6 under -10 over 8 over 3 under -8 under -1 under -3 5.6 -0.7 6.0 -1.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WLON1 98 (136/139) 100 (139/139) 90 (125/139) 60 ( 84/139) 22 ( 31/139) 6 ( 9/139) 1 ( 1/139) under -3 under -10 under -15 under -10 over 3 over 4 over 4 7.0 -3.9 8.4 -5.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WPNN1 95 (147/154) 100 (208/208) 92 (141/154) 72 (150/208) 40 ( 62/154) 22 ( 45/208) 9 ( 14/154) spot-on 0 under -10 under -17 under -22 under -15 under -12 under -4 11.4 -11.4 15.2 -15.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WTRN1 95 (146/154) 100 (208/208) 79 (122/154) 53 (110/208) 21 ( 33/154) 14 ( 30/208) 6 ( 9/154) spot-on 0 under -10 under -4 under -3 over 4 under -4 under -1 3.7 -2.6 5.0 -3.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= WFO - RIW net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BBRW4 97 ( 97/100) 100 (100/100) 95 ( 95/100) 92 ( 92/100) 86 ( 86/100) 82 ( 82/100) 66 ( 66/100) under -2 under -10 under -20 under -42 under -61 under -72 under -61 38.3 -38.3 41.0 -41.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BHBW4 96 ( 96/100) 100 (100/100) 96 ( 96/100) 91 ( 91/100) 78 ( 78/100) 64 ( 64/100) 53 ( 53/100) under -1 under -10 under -21 under -41 under -53 under -54 under -48 32.6 -32.6 35.8 -35.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPRW4 79 (114/144) 100 (159/159) 79 (114/144) 76 (121/159) 72 (104/144) 65 (104/159) 51 ( 74/144) over 16 under -10 under -4 under -26 under -47 under -55 under -46 29.1 -24.6 28.4 -28.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CROW4 93 (107/115) 100 (115/115) 92 (106/115) 90 (104/115) 86 ( 99/115) 77 ( 89/115) 74 ( 85/115) over 2 under -10 under -17 under -40 under -61 under -67 under -69 38.0 -37.4 39.0 -39.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DUBW4 99 (153/155) 100 (195/195) 95 (147/155) 94 (183/195) 80 (124/155) 73 (142/195) 57 ( 89/155) under -4 under -10 under -20 under -44 under -55 under -63 under -52 35.4 -35.4 38.4 -38.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GYBW4 84 ( 84/100) 100 (100/100) 74 ( 74/100) 68 ( 68/100) 62 ( 62/100) 52 ( 52/100) 44 ( 44/100) over 11 under -10 over 1 under -18 under -37 under -42 under -39 22.6 -19.1 21.6 -21.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KINW4 97 (112/115) 100 (115/115) 97 (112/115) 90 (104/115) 83 ( 96/115) 73 ( 84/115) 61 ( 70/115) under -2 under -10 under -22 under -40 under -58 under -63 under -56 35.9 -35.9 38.6 -38.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NFSW4 99 (153/155) 100 (200/200) 99 (153/155) 97 (194/200) 89 (138/155) 81 (161/200) 55 ( 85/155) under -4 under -10 under -24 under -47 under -64 under -71 under -50 38.6 -38.6 43.2 -43.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RVTW4 99 ( 99/100) 100 (100/100) 98 ( 98/100) 95 ( 95/100) 80 ( 80/100) 63 ( 63/100) 52 ( 52/100) under -4 under -10 under -23 under -45 under -55 under -53 under -47 33.9 -33.9 37.2 -37.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SLOW4 85 ( 85/100) 100 (100/100) 85 ( 85/100) 81 ( 81/100) 77 ( 77/100) 72 ( 72/100) 63 ( 63/100) over 10 under -10 under -10 under -31 under -52 under -62 under -58 33.3 -30.4 33.0 -33.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SXXW4 16 ( 17/108) 100 (108/108) 16 ( 17/108) 13 ( 14/108) 13 ( 14/108) 7 ( 8/108) 5 ( 5/108) over 79 under -10 over 59 over 37 over 12 over 3 spot-on 0 28.6 25.7 24.2 20.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TFLW4 91 (155/171) 100 (214/214) 80 (137/171) 67 (144/214) 46 ( 78/171) 29 ( 61/214) 16 ( 27/171) over 4 under -10 under -5 under -17 under -21 under -19 under -11 12.4 -11.3 14.4 -14.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WDRW4 96 (110/115) 100 (115/115) 95 (109/115) 93 (107/115) 84 ( 97/115) 71 ( 82/115) 64 ( 74/115) under -1 under -10 under -20 under -43 under -59 under -61 under -59 36.1 -36.1 38.6 -38.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WRCW4 99 (154/155) 100 (195/195) 97 (151/155) 86 (168/195) 79 (123/155) 62 (121/195) 57 ( 89/155) under -4 under -10 under -22 under -36 under -54 under -52 under -52 32.9 -32.9 34.8 -34.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YLOW4 91 (156/171) 100 (214/214) 84 (143/171) 78 (167/214) 63 (107/171) 64 (136/214) 52 ( 89/171) over 4 under -10 under -9 under -28 under -38 under -54 under -47 27.1 -26.0 27.8 -27.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= WFO - SGF net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGM7 97 (134/138) 100 (138/138) 86 (118/138) 64 ( 89/138) 34 ( 47/138) 15 ( 21/138) 9 ( 13/138) under -2 under -10 under -11 under -14 under -9 under -5 under -4 7.9 -7.9 9.8 -9.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CMZM7 99 ( 85/ 86) 100 ( 86/ 86) 95 ( 82/ 86) 67 ( 58/ 86) 23 ( 20/ 86) 7 ( 6/ 86) 1 ( 1/ 86) under -4 under -10 under -20 under -17 over 2 over 3 over 4 8.6 -6.0 10.4 -8.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FSKK1 88 (123/140) 100 (140/140) 66 ( 92/140) 41 ( 57/140) 17 ( 24/140) 7 ( 10/140) 2 ( 3/140) over 7 under -10 over 9 over 9 over 8 over 3 over 3 7.0 4.1 7.8 3.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FTNK1 93 (130/140) 100 (140/140) 71 (100/140) 42 ( 59/140) 14 ( 19/140) 2 ( 3/140) 0 ( 0/140) over 2 under -10 over 4 over 8 over 11 over 8 over 5 6.9 4.0 8.2 4.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HTNM7 90 (126/140) 100 (140/140) 72 (101/140) 50 ( 70/140) 18 ( 25/140) 7 ( 10/140) 4 ( 5/140) over 5 under -10 over 3 spot-on 0 over 7 over 3 over 1 4.1 1.3 4.6 0.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HZLM7 96 (146/152) 100 (229/229) 89 (136/152) 75 (171/229) 45 ( 68/152) 24 ( 54/229) 13 ( 19/152) under -1 under -10 under -14 under -25 under -20 under -14 under -8 13.1 -13.1 16.6 -16.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JRMM7 98 (149/152) 100 (229/229) 88 (134/152) 63 (145/229) 28 ( 43/152) 14 ( 32/229) 11 ( 16/152) under -3 under -10 under -13 under -13 under -3 under -4 under -6 7.4 -7.4 8.6 -8.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDM7 91 (127/140) 100 (140/140) 76 (107/140) 46 ( 64/140) 15 ( 21/140) 7 ( 10/140) 4 ( 5/140) over 4 under -10 under -1 over 4 over 10 over 3 over 1 4.7 1.6 5.6 1.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RBXM7 89 ( 93/104) 100 (104/104) 85 ( 88/104) 70 ( 73/104) 49 ( 51/104) 21 ( 22/104) 11 ( 11/104) over 6 under -10 under -10 under -20 under -24 under -11 under -6 12.4 -10.7 15.0 -15.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TBVM7 96 ( 48/ 50) 100 ( 50/ 50) 74 ( 37/ 50) 60 ( 30/ 50) 46 ( 23/ 50) 24 ( 12/ 50) 16 ( 8/ 50) under -1 under -10 over 1 under -10 under -21 under -14 under -11 9.7 -9.4 11.2 -10.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= WFO - TFX net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BCMM8 93 (179/192) 100 (206/206) 92 (176/192) 85 (175/206) 52 (100/192) 33 ( 68/206) 27 ( 52/192) over 2 under -10 under -17 under -35 under -27 under -23 under -22 19.4 -18.9 22.4 -22.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BSMM8 96 (184/192) 100 (206/206) 93 (179/192) 81 (166/206) 64 (122/192) 48 ( 98/206) 38 ( 73/192) under -1 under -10 under -18 under -31 under -39 under -38 under -33 24.3 -24.3 27.2 -27.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CCMM8 94 (181/192) 100 (206/206) 93 (179/192) 81 (167/206) 67 (128/192) 45 ( 93/206) 39 ( 75/192) over 1 under -10 under -18 under -31 under -42 under -35 under -34 24.4 -24.1 27.2 -27.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBRM8 94 (116/123) 100 (123/123) 93 (114/123) 84 (103/123) 74 ( 91/123) 49 ( 60/123) 24 ( 29/123) over 1 under -10 under -18 under -34 under -49 under -39 under -19 24.3 -24.0 30.0 -30.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DTTM8 86 (107/124) 100 (124/124) 82 (102/124) 75 ( 93/124) 58 ( 72/124) 41 ( 51/124) 32 ( 40/124) over 9 under -10 under -7 under -25 under -33 under -31 under -27 20.3 -17.7 21.2 -21.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ERNM8 90 (172/192) 100 (206/206) 89 (171/192) 84 (173/206) 65 (124/192) 38 ( 79/206) 32 ( 61/192) over 5 under -10 under -14 under -34 under -40 under -28 under -27 22.6 -21.1 25.2 -25.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FBNM8 100 ( 90/ 90) 100 ( 90/ 90) 99 ( 89/ 90) 98 ( 88/ 90) 97 ( 87/ 90) 78 ( 70/ 90) 67 ( 60/ 90) under -5 under -10 under -24 under -48 under -72 under -68 under -62 41.3 -41.3 44.4 -44.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLGM8 96 (162/169) 100 (214/214) 95 (161/169) 87 (187/214) 73 (124/169) 50 (106/214) 33 ( 56/169) under -1 under -10 under -20 under -37 under -48 under -40 under -28 26.3 -26.3 31.0 -31.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HRLM8 71 (137/192) 100 (265/265) 63 (121/192) 63 (166/265) 40 ( 77/192) 34 ( 89/265) 17 ( 32/192) over 24 under -10 over 12 under -13 under -15 under -24 under -12 15.7 -5.4 14.8 -10.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HVRM8 63 (121/192) 100 (265/265) 55 (106/192) 48 (128/265) 41 ( 78/192) 36 ( 96/265) 26 ( 49/192) over 32 under -10 over 20 over 2 under -16 under -26 under -21 18.1 -2.7 14.8 -6.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LDKM8 100 ( 89/ 89) 100 ( 89/ 89) 99 ( 88/ 89) 99 ( 88/ 89) 94 ( 84/ 89) 80 ( 71/ 89) 67 ( 60/ 89) under -5 under -10 under -24 under -49 under -69 under -70 under -62 41.3 -41.3 44.4 -44.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LGEM8 74 (143/192) 100 (206/206) 73 (141/192) 70 (145/206) 56 (108/192) 32 ( 65/206) 26 ( 50/192) over 21 under -10 over 2 under -20 under -31 under -22 under -21 18.1 -11.6 17.0 -16.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LOGM8 96 (153/160) 100 (160/160) 91 (145/160) 84 (134/160) 58 ( 93/160) 36 ( 58/160) 26 ( 42/160) under -1 under -10 under -16 under -34 under -33 under -26 under -21 20.1 -20.1 23.8 -23.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDYM8 68 (115/169) 100 (193/193) 60 (101/169) 57 (110/193) 40 ( 68/169) 35 ( 68/193) 28 ( 48/169) over 27 under -10 over 15 under -7 under -15 under -25 under -23 17.4 -5.4 14.4 -8.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MLRM8 94 (159/169) 100 (214/214) 87 (147/169) 80 (171/214) 59 ( 99/169) 27 ( 57/214) 11 ( 19/169) over 1 under -10 under -12 under -30 under -34 under -17 under -6 15.7 -15.4 20.6 -20.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHLM8 98 (141/144) 100 (144/144) 94 (136/144) 75 (108/144) 49 ( 71/144) 36 ( 52/144) 31 ( 44/144) under -3 under -10 under -19 under -25 under -24 under -26 under -26 19.0 -19.0 20.8 -20.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SMBM8 98 (188/192) 100 (243/243) 97 (186/192) 93 (227/243) 85 (164/192) 72 (176/243) 53 (102/192) under -3 under -10 under -22 under -43 under -60 under -62 under -48 35.4 -35.4 39.4 -39.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SSRM8 81 (100/124) 100 (124/124) 78 ( 97/124) 73 ( 90/124) 60 ( 75/124) 52 ( 64/124) 48 ( 59/124) over 14 under -10 under -3 under -23 under -35 under -42 under -43 24.3 -20.3 22.6 -22.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TFKM8 88 (109/124) 100 (124/124) 82 (102/124) 75 ( 93/124) 64 ( 79/124) 44 ( 54/124) 33 ( 41/124) over 7 under -10 under -7 under -25 under -39 under -34 under -28 21.4 -19.4 23.0 -23.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOSM8 94 (116/124) 100 (124/124) 87 (108/124) 76 ( 94/124) 62 ( 77/124) 40 ( 50/124) 23 ( 29/124) over 1 under -10 under -12 under -26 under -37 under -30 under -18 19.1 -18.9 23.0 -23.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TWIM8 87 (124/143) 100 (143/143) 80 (115/143) 72 (103/143) 62 ( 88/143) 45 ( 64/143) 31 ( 44/143) over 8 under -10 under -5 under -22 under -37 under -35 under -26 20.4 -18.1 21.8 -21.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TWNM8 66 ( 82/124) 100 (124/124) 65 ( 80/124) 60 ( 75/124) 48 ( 60/124) 30 ( 37/124) 21 ( 26/124) over 29 under -10 over 10 under -10 under -23 under -20 under -16 16.9 -5.7 14.6 -10.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ULMM8 99 ( 89/ 90) 100 ( 90/ 90) 99 ( 89/ 90) 99 ( 89/ 90) 98 ( 88/ 90) 82 ( 74/ 90) 68 ( 61/ 90) under -4 under -10 under -24 under -49 under -73 under -72 under -63 42.1 -42.1 45.6 -45.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VAUM8 74 ( 92/124) 100 (124/124) 72 ( 89/124) 67 ( 83/124) 57 ( 71/124) 47 ( 58/124) 35 ( 44/124) over 21 under -10 over 3 under -17 under -32 under -37 under -30 21.4 -14.6 19.8 -18.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= WFO - TOP net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ADAK1 99 (142/144) 100 (144/144) 88 (127/144) 68 ( 98/144) 39 ( 56/144) 8 ( 12/144) 3 ( 5/144) under -4 under -10 under -13 under -18 under -14 over 2 over 2 9.0 -7.9 11.4 -10.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BANK1 89 ( 58/ 65) 100 ( 65/ 65) 65 ( 42/ 65) 29 ( 19/ 65) 5 ( 3/ 65) 0 ( 0/ 65) 0 ( 0/ 65) over 6 under -10 over 10 over 21 over 20 over 10 over 5 11.7 8.9 14.2 10.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BLRK1 95 (143/150) 100 (226/226) 78 (117/150) 49 (111/226) 29 ( 43/150) 11 ( 24/226) 9 ( 14/150) spot-on 0 under -10 under -3 over 1 under -4 under -1 under -4 3.3 -3.0 3.8 -3.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BVUK1 85 (122/143) 100 (143/143) 66 ( 95/143) 40 ( 57/143) 13 ( 18/143) 1 ( 2/143) 0 ( 0/143) over 10 under -10 over 9 over 10 over 12 over 9 over 5 9.3 6.4 10.0 6.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CHPK1 95 (147/154) 100 (156/156) 86 (133/154) 57 ( 89/156) 29 ( 44/154) 6 ( 10/156) 5 ( 7/154) spot-on 0 under -10 under -11 under -7 under -4 over 4 spot-on 0 5.1 -4.0 7.2 -5.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CNKK1 91 (138/152) 100 (155/155) 78 (119/152) 54 ( 84/155) 29 ( 44/152) 13 ( 20/155) 5 ( 7/152) over 4 under -10 under -3 under -4 under -4 under -3 spot-on 0 4.0 -2.9 4.8 -4.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CYCK1 91 (139/152) 100 (155/155) 72 (109/152) 54 ( 83/155) 35 ( 53/152) 18 ( 28/155) 13 ( 19/152) over 4 under -10 over 3 under -4 under -10 under -8 under -8 6.7 -4.7 7.0 -5.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DELK1 100 (154/154) 100 (156/156) 86 (133/154) 63 ( 99/156) 27 ( 42/154) 15 ( 23/156) 9 ( 14/154) under -5 under -10 under -11 under -13 under -2 under -5 under -4 7.1 -7.1 8.2 -8.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ENTK1 72 (104/144) 100 (144/144) 50 ( 72/144) 28 ( 40/144) 6 ( 8/144) 1 ( 1/144) 1 ( 1/144) over 23 under -10 over 25 over 22 over 19 over 9 over 4 16.0 13.1 17.0 13.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FKFK1 93 (139/150) 100 (226/226) 76 (114/150) 52 (117/226) 18 ( 27/150) 9 ( 21/226) 5 ( 8/150) over 2 under -10 under -1 under -2 over 7 over 1 spot-on 0 3.3 -0.4 4.2 -1.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FTRK1 81 (116/143) 100 (143/143) 59 ( 84/143) 35 ( 50/143) 8 ( 11/143) 1 ( 2/143) 1 ( 1/143) over 14 under -10 over 16 over 15 over 17 over 9 over 4 12.1 9.3 13.4 9.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GRTK1 91 ( 68/ 75) 100 ( 75/ 75) 77 ( 58/ 75) 48 ( 36/ 75) 28 ( 21/ 75) 16 ( 12/ 75) 8 ( 6/ 75) over 4 under -10 under -2 over 2 under -3 under -6 under -3 4.3 -2.6 4.6 -3.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HBGK1 86 (131/152) 100 (228/228) 70 (107/152) 43 ( 98/228) 18 ( 28/152) 4 ( 9/228) 3 ( 5/152) over 9 under -10 over 5 over 7 over 7 over 6 over 2 6.6 3.7 7.0 3.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JNCK1 88 (123/140) 100 (140/140) 76 (107/140) 54 ( 75/140) 24 ( 34/140) 4 ( 5/140) 2 ( 3/140) over 7 under -10 under -1 under -4 over 1 over 6 over 3 4.6 0.3 4.4 -1.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LAWK1 89 (127/143) 100 (143/143) 73 (105/143) 37 ( 53/143) 14 ( 20/143) 6 ( 8/143) 3 ( 5/143) over 6 under -10 over 2 over 13 over 11 over 4 over 2 6.9 4.0 8.0 4.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LCPK1 90 (128/143) 100 (143/143) 68 ( 97/143) 41 ( 59/143) 20 ( 29/143) 4 ( 6/143) 0 ( 0/143) over 5 under -10 over 7 over 9 over 5 over 6 over 5 6.7 3.9 7.4 3.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LISK1 86 (133/154) 100 (156/156) 76 (117/154) 49 ( 77/156) 28 ( 43/154) 15 ( 24/156) 5 ( 8/154) over 9 under -10 under -1 over 1 under -3 under -5 spot-on 0 4.1 -1.3 4.0 -3.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LNDK1 90 (137/153) 100 (181/181) 70 (107/153) 49 ( 89/181) 27 ( 41/153) 14 ( 26/181) 10 ( 16/153) over 5 under -10 over 5 over 1 under -2 under -4 under -5 4.6 -1.4 4.4 -2.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LNEK1 82 (125/153) 100 (181/181) 67 (102/153) 41 ( 74/181) 21 ( 32/153) 7 ( 12/181) 4 ( 6/153) over 13 under -10 over 8 over 9 over 4 over 3 over 1 6.9 4.0 6.8 2.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LWRK1 92 (132/143) 100 (143/143) 90 (128/143) 81 (116/143) 50 ( 71/143) 19 ( 27/143) 8 ( 11/143) over 3 under -10 under -15 under -31 under -25 under -9 under -3 13.7 -12.9 18.0 -18.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MHKK1 80 (115/143) 100 (143/143) 69 ( 98/143) 47 ( 67/143) 16 ( 23/143) 3 ( 4/143) 0 ( 0/143) over 15 under -10 over 6 over 3 over 9 over 7 over 5 7.9 5.0 7.0 3.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MPSK1 92 (132/144) 100 (144/144) 85 (122/144) 72 (103/144) 29 ( 42/144) 8 ( 11/144) 3 ( 5/144) over 3 under -10 under -10 under -22 under -4 over 2 over 2 7.6 -5.6 9.6 -8.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MRYK1 95 (145/152) 100 (228/228) 78 (118/152) 46 (105/228) 22 ( 34/152) 9 ( 21/228) 4 ( 6/152) spot-on 0 under -10 under -3 over 4 over 3 over 1 over 1 3.1 -0.6 4.2 -1.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MWCK1 75 ( 86/114) 100 (114/114) 63 ( 72/114) 40 ( 46/114) 29 ( 33/114) 13 ( 15/114) 6 ( 7/114) over 20 under -10 over 12 over 10 under -4 under -3 under -1 8.6 3.4 7.8 1.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NLSK1 78 (112/144) 100 (144/144) 67 ( 96/144) 40 ( 58/144) 11 ( 16/144) 1 ( 2/144) 1 ( 1/144) over 17 under -10 over 8 over 10 over 14 over 9 over 4 10.3 7.4 10.2 6.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OTWK1 97 ( 83/ 86) 100 ( 86/ 86) 86 ( 74/ 86) 57 ( 49/ 86) 24 ( 21/ 86) 15 ( 13/ 86) 8 ( 7/ 86) under -2 under -10 under -11 under -7 over 1 under -5 under -3 5.6 -5.3 6.8 -6.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PXCK1 96 (148/154) 100 (156/156) 73 (112/154) 46 ( 71/156) 22 ( 34/154) 6 ( 9/156) 5 ( 8/154) under -1 under -10 over 2 over 4 over 3 over 4 spot-on 0 3.4 0.3 4.6 0.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QNMK1 50 ( 43/ 86) 100 ( 86/ 86) 44 ( 38/ 86) 30 ( 26/ 86) 16 ( 14/ 86) 3 ( 3/ 86) 0 ( 0/ 86) over 45 under -10 over 31 over 20 over 9 over 7 over 5 18.1 15.3 15.4 11.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RDNK1 91 (139/153) 100 (180/180) 71 (109/153) 43 ( 77/180) 25 ( 38/153) 7 ( 13/180) 4 ( 6/153) over 4 under -10 over 4 over 7 spot-on 0 over 3 over 1 4.1 1.3 4.8 0.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RDPK1 67 (101/150) 100 (226/226) 53 ( 80/150) 39 ( 88/226) 25 ( 38/150) 15 ( 34/226) 11 ( 16/150) over 28 under -10 over 22 over 11 spot-on 0 under -5 under -6 11.7 5.7 9.6 3.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSSK1 89 (137/154) 100 (156/156) 73 (112/154) 44 ( 69/156) 25 ( 38/154) 9 ( 14/156) 5 ( 8/154) over 6 under -10 over 2 over 6 spot-on 0 over 1 spot-on 0 3.6 0.7 3.8 -0.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SNCK1 90 (137/153) 100 (254/254) 67 (102/153) 45 (114/254) 26 ( 40/153) 18 ( 45/254) 10 ( 15/153) over 5 under -10 over 8 over 5 under -1 under -8 under -5 6.0 -0.9 6.4 -1.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SNDK1 81 (123/152) 100 (155/155) 68 (104/152) 54 ( 83/155) 38 ( 57/152) 12 ( 19/155) 9 ( 14/152) over 14 under -10 over 7 under -4 under -13 under -2 under -4 7.7 -1.7 7.2 -4.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOPK1 99 (153/154) 100 (156/156) 81 (124/154) 47 ( 73/156) 27 ( 42/154) 12 ( 19/156) 5 ( 8/154) under -4 under -10 under -6 over 3 under -2 under -2 spot-on 0 3.9 -3.0 4.6 -3.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TPAK1 89 (127/143) 100 (143/143) 71 (101/143) 45 ( 64/143) 23 ( 33/143) 7 ( 10/143) 0 ( 0/143) over 6 under -10 over 4 over 5 over 2 over 3 over 5 5.0 2.1 4.8 0.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TSCK1 98 (141/144) 100 (144/144) 89 (128/144) 68 ( 98/144) 16 ( 23/144) 6 ( 8/144) 3 ( 4/144) under -3 under -10 under -14 under -18 over 9 over 4 over 2 8.6 -4.3 11.0 -5.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WMGK1 67 ( 96/143) 100 (143/143) 52 ( 75/143) 31 ( 44/143) 7 ( 10/143) 2 ( 3/143) 0 ( 0/143) over 28 under -10 over 23 over 19 over 18 over 8 over 5 15.9 13.0 15.6 11.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WSHK1 92 (140/152) 100 (228/228) 74 (113/152) 60 (136/228) 33 ( 50/152) 14 ( 33/228) 9 ( 13/152) over 3 under -10 over 1 under -10 under -8 under -4 under -4 5.7 -4.6 6.6 -6.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= WFO - UNR net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BWSW4 96 (155/161) 100 (200/200) 95 (153/161) 90 (179/200) 75 (121/161) 38 ( 76/200) 18 ( 29/161) under -1 under -10 under -20 under -40 under -50 under -28 under -13 23.1 -23.1 29.6 -29.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CACS2 94 (156/166) 100 (271/271) 87 (145/166) 84 (227/271) 45 ( 74/166) 25 ( 69/271) 12 ( 20/166) over 1 under -10 under -12 under -34 under -20 under -15 under -7 14.1 -13.9 18.2 -18.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EMSS2 93 (149/161) 100 (259/259) 86 (139/161) 76 (196/259) 52 ( 84/161) 25 ( 66/259) 12 ( 19/161) over 2 under -10 under -11 under -26 under -27 under -15 under -7 14.0 -13.4 17.8 -17.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FTHS2 88 (141/161) 100 (259/259) 76 (122/161) 66 (170/259) 26 ( 42/161) 31 ( 80/259) 14 ( 23/161) over 7 under -10 under -1 under -16 under -1 under -21 under -9 9.3 -7.3 9.8 -9.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KDKS2 96 (150/157) 100 (195/195) 86 (135/157) 65 (126/195) 36 ( 56/157) 22 ( 42/195) 11 ( 17/157) under -1 under -10 under -11 under -15 under -11 under -12 under -6 9.4 -9.4 11.8 -11.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MIDS2 75 (118/157) 100 (241/241) 65 (102/157) 56 (134/241) 25 ( 40/157) 21 ( 51/241) 9 ( 14/157) over 20 under -10 over 10 under -6 spot-on 0 under -11 under -4 8.7 -0.1 7.4 -3.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OACS2 92 (145/157) 100 (240/240) 82 (129/157) 75 (179/240) 34 ( 53/157) 32 ( 76/240) 8 ( 12/157) over 3 under -10 under -7 under -25 under -9 under -22 under -3 11.3 -10.4 14.6 -14.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PLNS2 87 (140/161) 100 (259/259) 81 (130/161) 78 (202/259) 55 ( 89/161) 38 ( 99/259) 17 ( 28/161) over 8 under -10 under -6 under -28 under -30 under -28 under -12 17.4 -15.1 20.4 -20.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SBFS2 98 (157/161) 100 (200/200) 89 (143/161) 76 (151/200) 50 ( 80/161) 25 ( 50/200) 16 ( 25/161) under -3 under -10 under -14 under -26 under -25 under -15 under -11 14.9 -14.9 18.0 -18.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WASS2 99 (159/161) 100 (259/259) 94 (152/161) 90 (234/259) 70 (113/161) 53 (136/259) 29 ( 47/161) under -4 under -10 under -19 under -40 under -45 under -43 under -24 26.4 -26.4 31.4 -31.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHRS2 90 (141/157) 100 (195/195) 82 (129/157) 55 (108/195) 19 ( 30/157) 10 ( 19/195) 4 ( 6/157) over 5 under -10 under -7 under -5 over 6 spot-on 0 over 1 4.9 -1.4 5.6 -3.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================