National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Turning Stormy in the Northwest

An active fall storm pattern developing in the Pacific Northwest this week will bring areas of heavy rain and high elevation snow. Northern California will benefit from rainfall this week that will aid firefighters given the recent large wildfires. Read More >

 

  Climate Home Hydrology Home

November & Autumn 2015

  • Tulsa: November 2015 was the 23rd warmest (52.6°F, tied 2012; since 1905) and the 4th wettest (7.21", tied 1996; since 1888) November on record.
  • Using the radar-derived estimated observed precipitation from the RFCs, rainfall totals for November 2015 ranged from around 3.5” to near 15”. Most of the area received 6”-10” of rain this month. This corresponds to around 150% to around 300% of the normal November rain across eastern OK and northwest AR. Much of southeast OK and west central AR received 10”-14” of rain.
  • All of eastern OK and northwest AR received above normal rainfall during November 2015 due to several rounds of heavy rain.
  • Minor to moderate river flooding occurred at the end of the month. Eight forecast points went into flood, including Polecat Creek near Sapulpa, the Caney River near Collinsville, the Neosho River near Commerce, the Illinois River near Watts and Tahlequah, the Poteau River near Panama, the Kiamichi River near Antlers, and the Red River near Arthur City. Moderate flooding occurred along the Neosho River near Commerce and the Kiamichi River near Antlers, with minor flooding elsewhere.
  • According to the Drought Monitor from December 1, 2015, there were not drought or abnormally dry conditions present in eastern OK and northwest AR.
  • According to the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, November 2015 was the 1st (record) wettest for northeast Oklahoma, the 3rd wettest for east central Oklahoma, and the 2nd wettest for southeast Oklahoma.  Records go back to 1921. For the Cool Growing Season September 1 - November 30, 2015, northeast Oklahoma ranked as the 37th wettest, east central Oklahoma was the 21st wettest, and southeast Oklahoma was the 10th wettest period.  For Year-to-Date 2015 (January 1-November 30, 2015), northeast Oklahoma ranked as the 10th wettest, east central Oklahoma was the 1st (record) wettest, and southeast Oklahoma was the 5th wettest Year-to-Date.
Autumn (September-October-November) 2015
Outlook
  • The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlook for December 2015 (issued November 30, 2015) indicates an enhanced chance for above normal temperatures and equal chances for above, near, and below median precipitation across eastern OK and northwest AR. This outlook is based on both short- and extended-range weather forecasts as well as strong El Niño influences. Positive phases of the Arctic Oscillation and the North Pacific Oscillation also favor mild temperatures for at least the first half of December across much of North America.
  • For the 3-month period December-January-February 2015-16, CPC is forecasting an equal chance for above, near, and below normal temperatures across all of eastern OK and northwest. This outlook also indicates an enhanced chance for above median precipitation across all of eastern OK and west central AR, with equal chances for above, near, and below median rainfall in northwest AR (outlook issued November 19, 2015). This outlook is based primarily on both statistical and dynamical forecast tools, as well as typical impacts resulting from El Niño conditions.
  • According to CPC, strong El Niño conditions remain in place and are an important driver of climate scale forecasts over North America. The ongoing El Niño is among the strongest on record and is expected to persist into Spring 2016. This event is likely to peak in strength during Winter 2015-16. There is a 95% chance for El Niño to continue through the upcoming winter and peak as a very strong (sometimes referred to as a “super”) El Niño, with sea surface temperature anomalies near or exceeding +2.0°C. El Niño impacts are generally most significant in the Southern Plains during the cold season. .  An El Niño Advisory is in effect.