000
ACPN50 PHFO 031955
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST FRI JUL 3 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
$$
KINEL
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031846
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
CORRECTED TO ADD GENESIS PROBABILITY STATEMENT...
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 031804
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO NWS
TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT VIERNES 3 DE JULIO DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
UN AREA NO TROPICAL DE BAJA PRESION...LOCALIZADA COMO A 1000 MILLAS
AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE AZORES...CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS Y
TRONADAS DESPLAZADOS HACIA EL ESTE DEL CENTRO DE ESTE SISTEMA. LOS
VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS DE LA ATMOSFERA PERMANECEN
DESFAVORABLES PARA EL DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA HACIA UN CICLON
SUBTROPICAL. EXISTE UNA BAJA PROBABILIDAD...MENOS DE 30
PORCIENTO....DE QUE ESTE SISTEMA SE CONVIERTA EN CICLON TROPICAL O
SUBTROPICAL EN LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
EN EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BERG
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
AXNT20 KNHC 031757
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 03 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM OBSERVED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES AN INVERTED-V LOW CLOUD BAND ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS WITH A RELATED BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FURTHER
W NEAR 13N45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY CONFINED
TO THE ITCZ FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 36W-42W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 58W-65W. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN
NEAR 14N66W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 80W-84W.
THIS ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE FROM
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N84W.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N30W 9N39W 6N50W AND TO
THE NE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
14W-20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N
BETWEEN 20W-26W...FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 32W-34W...AND FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 42W-47W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
ALONG 31N84W 30N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30
NM OF THE FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 24N83W. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF
THE HIGH FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 82W-90W. 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR 26N95W MOVING SW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 93W-96W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER N FLORIDA N OF 27N SUPPORTING THE COLD
FRONT. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT W TO THE
CENTRAL GULF WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE S OF 25N.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
BELIZE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA.
EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE QUICKLY W OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH CONVECTION.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N61W. A 1013 MB LOW
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N43W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 26N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 31N-33N BETWEEN 39W-42W. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N25W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N40W. EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
E TO NEAR 32N38W IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.
$$
FORMOSA
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031754
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
CORRECTED TO ADD ELSEWHERE SECTION...
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031750
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN
000
ABNT20 KNHC 031747
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF ITS CENTER.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031519
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUL 03 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE EAST PACIFIC ALONG 79W N OF 04N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE LIES IN AN
UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION N OF 02N E OF 82W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 112W FROM 05N TO 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THERE IS SLIGHT LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGES ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE
INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N81W 10N101W 08N125W 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 08N E OF 82W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 15N
BETWEEN 90W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N AND 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
115W AND 125W.
...DISCUSSION...
N OF 20N...
SFC WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS DUE TO A
STALLED FRONT NW OF THE AREA...INTERRUPTING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING. ONLY EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE N COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA AND A SHIP OBS INDICATE NW 15-20 KT
WINDS. DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST AS
WINDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO OCCASIONALLY PULSE TO NEAR 20 KT
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ENHANCED BY TERRAIN VARIATIONS
OVER THE PENINSULA. 20 KT WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
SUSTAINED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH STRENGTHENS.
N SWELL...ORIGINATING FROM STRONG N FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW...IS
ELEVATING SEAS TO 7 FT NEAR 30N. SEAS WILL GENERALLY SUBSIDE A
COUPLE OF FT OVER THE DAY OR TWO AS THE SWELLS DIMINISH.
ALOFT...RIDGING EXTENDS FROM A HIGH NEAR THE W TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER TO NEAR 20N140W. SW FLOW TO THE W OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS
ADVECTING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE...BUT IS ONLY IN THE FORM OF
HIGH CLOUDINESS. CONVECTION OVER MEXICO IS BEING DRIVEN OFF THE
COAST BY ELY FLOW CURRENTLY FROM 20N-23N E OF 107W. MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER EXISTS ELSEWHERE SUPPORTED BY WIDESPREAD DRY AIR ALOFT.
S OF 20N...
ONLY AREA IN THE TROPICS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED IS A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF 11N101W. GFS APPEARS TO HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON ITS INITIALIZATION SUGGESTIVE OF A NW TO
SE-ORIENTED TROUGH FROM 17N103W TO 07N100W. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT
PASS INDICATED 20 KT E TO SE WINDS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE AXIS N
OF 14N. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER BULLISH ON DEVELOPING
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS BECOME LESS AGGRESSIVE TODAY. THIS SEEMS VERY
REASONABLE AS THE BROAD LOW HAS YET TO CONSOLIDATE...BUT STILL
AM SHOWING A LOW DEVELOP IN TEXT/GRAPHICS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.
SW SWELL OF 15-17 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT FROM
S TO N. THE ITCZ IS FAIRLY ACTIVE E OF 125W ENHANCED BY A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AND THE TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED ABOVE.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT NE WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 20 KT. THE NEAR GALE FORCE SURGE IN THE
CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO PENETRATE THROUGH THE GAP INCREASING
WINDS TO 30 KT BY TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
$$
CANGIALOSI
000
ACPN50 PHFO 031345
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST FRI JUL 3 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
$$
000
AXNT20 KNHC 031203
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 03 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1000 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N35W TO 4N36W MOVING W NEAR
20 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-7N BETWEEN 34W-38W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 56W-60W. THIS
CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 77W-81W.
HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE E PACIFIC
ITCZ.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N24W 9N35W 5N46W AND TO
THE NE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN
15W-19W AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 40W-43W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE ACROSS THE N CENTRAL
AND ERN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE PRIMARILY DIED OUT BESIDES A SMALL
AREA IN THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 90W-92W. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN UNITED STATES HAS BEGUN TO
SHIFT EWD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO
AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NWRN CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N84W IS
SUPPORTING A SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 23N
BETWEEN 90W-95W. THE REMAINDER OF THE NW GULF OF MEXICO IS UNDER
A WEAK RIDGE WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT
THE RIDGE TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N84W.
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY NEAR THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN
77W-80W...AND OVER HAITI FROM 18N-19N BETWEEN 73W-75W. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N79W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WRN
CARIBBEAN S OF 18N W OF 80W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE E
PACIFIC ITCZ ALONG WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W ARE
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N W OF 77W. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN BRINGING DEEP LAYER
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. DUE TO THIS...THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN
CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. ELY TRADE
WINDS OF 20-30 KT COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO REACH THE FAR
ERN CARIBBEAN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE WRN ATLC NEAR 29N60W SUPPORTING
A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 27N60W. A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC AT THE EDGE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N45W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 28N45W. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS TROUGH AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
TO THE E OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 42W
ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 39W-43W. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BRINGING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH NEAR 27N60W AND A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR
31N26W. A BROAD LOW/MID-LEVEL DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERS THE E
ATLC S OF 25N E OF 55W LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS AREA.
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
11N41W ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ.
$$
WALTON
000
ABNT20 KNHC 031155
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF ITS CENTER.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031139
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030919
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JUL 03 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE FROM 5N-17N ALONG 107W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE WAVE
BETWEEN 5N-10N
...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 6N78W 10N95W 10N115W 6N130W 5N140W. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS E OF 80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM S
OF AXIS FROM 100W-106W AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM FROM
107-127W.
...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR
23N124W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION SW TO 17N140W. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
OTHERWISE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS N OF THE ITCZ W
OF 110W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N121W TO OFF
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 26N115W.
A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR
THE SW TEXAS BORDER AT 30N105W...WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF MEXICO. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS E OF
105W WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING STRONG CONVECTION OVER
NICARAGUA AND OFF THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR.
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 6N-14N ALONG 97W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN
93W-98W. SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 30N140N TO 22N120W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA N OF 15N W OF
115W.
$$
DGS
000
ACPN50 PHFO 030814
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST THU JUL 2 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
$$
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 030542
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO NWS
TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT VIERNES 3 DE JULIO DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
UN AREA NO TROPICAL DE BAJA PRESION...LOCALIZADA COMO A 1100 MILLAS
AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE AZORES...CONTINUA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS Y
TRONADAS QUE SE DESPLAZAN HACIA EL ESTE DEL CENTRO DE ESTE SISTEMA.
EL DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA...SI ALGUNO...SERA LENTO DEBIDO A LOS
VIENTOS DESFAVORABLES EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS DE LA ATMOSFERA A MEDIDA
QUE SE MUEVE HACIA EL ESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH EN LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.
EXISTE UNA LEVE PROBABILIDAD...MENOS DE 30 PORCIENTO....DE QUE ESTE
SISTEMA SE CONVIERTA EN CICLON TROPICAL O SUBTROPICAL EN LAS
PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
EN EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BERG
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 030535
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
ABNT20 KNHC 030535
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF ITS LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW
TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
EASTWARD NEAR 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
AXNT20 KNHC 030520
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 03 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 20
KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-8N BETWEEN 32W-37W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 53W-58W. THIS
CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 11N24W 7N36W AND TO THE
NE S AMERICA COAST NEAR 5N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 16W-21W AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 38W-41W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND E
GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N E OF 93W...AND FROM 22N-24N E OF 85 INTO
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN UNITED STATES INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF TO NEAR 26N88W...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N83W...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN
ATLC ALONG WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT ARE SUPPORTING THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
OVER MEXICO AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN ARE
SUPPORTING A LARGE CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N
BETWEEN 89W-93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE NW GULF OF MEXICO IS UNDER
A WEAK RIDGE WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT SE TO S
WINDS. EXPECT THE RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN AND PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 26N88W.
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY NEAR THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CUBA AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS N OF 19N BETWEEN 75W-85W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N79W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND NELY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE E PACIFIC IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 76W
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF COLUMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND
NICARAGUA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN
BRINGING DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. DUE TO THIS...THE
REMAINDER OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. ELY TRADE WINDS
OF 20 KT COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN REACHING 30 KT IN
SOME AREAS...WITH THE HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST OF COLUMBIA.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
DOWN THE ERN UNITED STATES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC CENTERED AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH NEAR 29N63W ALONG WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT ARE SUPPORTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW ATLC EXTENDING FROM
THE ERN GULF N OF 27N W OF 74W. A 1016 MB SURFACE LOW IS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC AT THE EDGE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N45W.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS LOW AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS
ALONG 44W ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N BETWEEN
38W-45W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1024
MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 27N59W AND A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 32N28W. A
BROAD LOW/MID-LEVEL DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERS THE E ATLC S OF
25N E OF 55W LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 15N39W
ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ.
$$
WALTON
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030308
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUL 03 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVE...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N105W TO 11N106W TO 05N106W
MOVING W ABOUT 12 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
FROM CIMSS. THE WAVE MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF A RATHER BROAD
AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION...AND BISECTS THE
ITCZ. AT THE PRESENT TIME...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM E OF THE WAVE N OF THE ITCZ. THE WAVE IS UNDER MODERATE
TO STRONG ELY SHEAR OCCURRING ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A
MID/UPPER LEVEL WARM CORE ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO NEAR 21N102W. ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP NEAR
THE WAVE IS WILL LIKELY BE A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE ITCZ.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 9N90W 10N105W 9N120W 6N130W
6N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 83W-85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W-102W...AND BETWEEN 109W-112W.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
116W-127W.
...DISCUSSION...
A NARROWING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE FAR NE CORNER OF
THE AREA THROUGH 32N19W...THEN EXTENDS SE TO NEAR 25N117W. TO
THE SW OF THE TROUGH...AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
IS SITUATED NEAR 18N129W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 14N140W. A LARGER
DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS WELL W OF THE REGION. A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL SW FLOW PATTERN IS OBSERVED BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. THIS
CONTINUES TO ADVECT DEEP TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC NEWD INTO THE AREA FROM 18N TO 21N E TO OVER THE
CREST OF THE ANTICYCLONE. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ENCROACHING INTO THE FAR NW CORNER IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGE
TROUGH W OF THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION W OF LINE FROM
23N107W TO 17N122W TO 10N120W IS UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
PROVIDING RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS AS INDICATED BY MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHES OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING S AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY
OF WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRES PRESENT N OF 14N W OF 123W. WEAK HIGH
PRES GENERALLY COVERS THE AREA N OF 13N W OF 125W. A LAYER OF
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IS OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA
N OF 18N E OF 119W TO ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE THAT
EXTENDS FROM 23N107W TO 17N122W TO 10N120W ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL
MOSITURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS MOISTURE IS
PRINCIPALLY ATTRIBUTED TO CONDITIONS ALREADY DESCRIBED
ABOVE UNDER TROPICAL WAVE...BUT IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED IN THE
ITCZ REGION AS THE REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS ARE UNDER
A BROAD LOW PRES FIELD. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS CONTRIBUTING FURTHER TO THIS MOISTURE BY
ADVECTING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE
FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA...AND SIMILARLY OVER NICARAGUA SWD INTO THE
FAR ERN PACIFIC.
THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER SRN MEXICO
AND BROAD LOW PRES ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ WILL INCREASE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL E-SE WINDS SW OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT
THE SAME TIME...CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE
INCREASING E TO SE FLOW RESULTING IN AN AREA OF INCREASED
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY WELL OFF THE MEXICAN COAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS LEADING TO GENESIS OF SURFACE LOW PRES JUST N
OF THE ITCZ IN THE VICINITY OF 103W-105W. CURRENTLY...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 96W FROM 7N-12N MOVING W 13 KT. THE LOW
COULD POSSIBLY FORM ON THE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED
BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS FIELD...
AND ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE TROUGH AS PART
OF THE BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED DISTURBED WEATHER TIED TO
THE TROPICAL WAVE DESCRIBED ABOVE. WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN 240 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW BY 48
HOURS DUE TO THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER MEXICO.
AT THE SAME TIME...CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW IS BRINGING SE TO S
WINDS TO 20 KT S OF 5N BETWEEN 90W AND 105W...WITH THIS AREA
LIKELY EXPANDING NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ALSO...MODERATE EASTERLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW S OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WILL BLEED INTO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH SURFACE WINDS BEING ACCELERATED INTO THE
20-30 KT RANGE NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY
EARLY SATURDAY DUE TO VARIATIONS IN LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY. THESE
WINDS WILL BE MAXIMIZED LATE AT NIGHT WHEN NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW IS AT ITS PEAK. STRONG SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC STORMS ARE ALSO
SENDING LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL NORTHWARD...WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT COVERING A LARGE PART OF THE AREA S OF 15N
E OF 116W BY LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING LARGE BATTERING WAVES TO THE
SW COAST OF MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
$$
AGUIRRE
000
ACPN50 PHFO 030200
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST THU JUL 2 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
$$
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 030107
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO NWS
TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT JUEVES 2 DE JULIO DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION NO TROPICAL LOCALIZADA A 1150 MILLAS AL
OESTE-SUROESTE DE AZORES PRODUCIRA AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS QUE SE ESTAN
DESPLAZANDOSE HACIA EL ESTE DEBIDO A LOS FUERTES VIENTOS EN LOS
NIVELES ALTOS. ESTOS VIENTOS SE ESPERAN SE MANTENGAN
DESFAVORABLES...PARA LA FORMACION ADICIONAL DE ESTE SISTEMA...SI HAY
ALGUN DESARROLLO...SERA LENTO MIENTRAS SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL
ESTE A 10 MPH. HAY UNA LEVE PROBABILIDAD...MENOS DE 30
PORCIENTO...QUE ESTE SISTEMA SE CONVIENTA EN TORMENTA TROPICAL O
SUBTROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BERG
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
AXNT20 KNHC 030005
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 02 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A LARGE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W TO THE SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS BROAD WITH THE LAST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY TODAY INDICATING AN AREA OF
CYCLONIC TURNING COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 28W
AND 40W. THE WAVE POSITION IS ROUGHLY IN THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WHERE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS SUGGEST A VORTICITY
MAXIMUM NEAR 10N31W. SYNOPTIC PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOW A 3 MB PRESSURE INCREASE DURING AT LEAST
THE LAST 24 HOURS. QUIKSCAT DATA REVEAL NORTHEASTERLY 20 KT TO
25 KT WIND SPEEDS TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE TO THE NORTH OF 14N
DUE TO THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REALLY DOES NOT
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS BETWEEN 30W AND 40W
TO THE SOUTH OF THE WAVE.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED W TO ALONG
50W/51W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. THE
INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
TO ITS WEST IS GIVING ENERGY TO ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 52W AND 58W.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W TO THE SOUTH
OF 17N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NO DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE AREA THAT IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE 20N83W CARIBBEAN
SEA UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
...THE ITCZ...
FROM AFRICA NEAR 13N17W TO 12N27W TO 9N34W TO 6N49W...INTO
SURINAME NEAR 5N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 37W AND 39W. ISOLATED
MODERATE
SHOWERS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W...AND ELSEWHERE
FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND 45W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A 20N83W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN
FLORIDA AND 92W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN THE MIDDLE OF CYCLONIC
FLOW TO THE NORTH WITH AN EASTERN U.S.A. DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 20N83W
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN CUBA FROM EAST TO
WEST AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LINED UP ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL
FROM 23N TO 30N...WITH AN INTERIOR MEXICO 25N104W MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE WESTERN HALF OF HONDURAS TO GUATEMALA
AND MEXICO FROM THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT
IS MOVING AROUND THE 20N83W CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS TO THE SOUTH
OF CUBA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTH OF
PANAMA AND REACHING EASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA HELPING TO ENERGIZE THIS PRECIPITATION. IT DOES
NOT HURT THAT THE 20N83W CYCLONIC CENTER IS TO THE NORTH WITH
ITS OWN CIRCULATION.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INTERACTING WITH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN ORDER TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF 31N72W 26N79W...INCLUDING
IN THE NW BAHAMAS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE STREAMING AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N70W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR
31N37W TO 22N42W. A BROAD AREA OF LOW/MID-LEVEL DRY SAHARAN AIR
COVERS THE E ATLC S OF 25N TO THE ITCZ E OF 55W AND IS LIMITING
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS AREA.
$$
MT
000
AXNT20 KNHC 030005 RRA
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 02 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A LARGE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W TO THE SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS BROAD WITH THE LAST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY TODAY INDICATING AN AREA OF
CYCLONIC TURNING COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 28W
AND 40W. THE WAVE POSITION IS ROUGHLY IN THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WHERE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS SUGGEST A VORTICITY
MAXIMUM NEAR 10N31W. SYNOPTIC PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOW A 3 MB PRESSURE INCREASE DURING AT LEAST
THE LAST 24 HOURS. QUIKSCAT DATA REVEAL NORTHEASTERLY 20 KT TO
25 KT WIND SPEEDS TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE TO THE NORTH OF 14N
DUE TO THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REALLY DOES NOT
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS BETWEEN 30W AND 40W
TO THE SOUTH OF THE WAVE.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED W TO ALONG
50W/51W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. THE
INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
TO ITS WEST IS GIVING ENERGY TO ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 52W AND 58W.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W TO THE SOUTH
OF 17N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NO DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD
THE AREA THAT IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE 20N83W CARIBBEAN
SEA UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
...THE ITCZ...
FROM AFRICA NEAR 13N17W TO 12N27W TO 9N34W TO 6N49W...INTO
SURINAME NEAR 5N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 37W AND 39W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W...AND
ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND 45W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A 20N83W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN
FLORIDA AND 92W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN THE MIDDLE OF CYCLONIC
FLOW TO THE NORTH WITH AN EASTERN U.S.A. DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 20N83W
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN CUBA FROM EAST TO
WEST AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LINED UP ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL
FROM 23N TO 30N...WITH AN INTERIOR MEXICO 25N104W MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE WESTERN HALF OF HONDURAS TO GUATEMALA
AND MEXICO FROM THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT
IS MOVING AROUND THE 20N83W CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS TO THE SOUTH
OF CUBA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTH OF
PANAMA AND REACHING EASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA HELPING TO ENERGIZE THIS PRECIPITATION. IT DOES
NOT HURT THAT THE 20N83W CYCLONIC CENTER IS TO THE NORTH WITH
ITS OWN CIRCULATION.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INTERACTING WITH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN ORDER TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF 31N72W 26N79W...INCLUDING
IN THE NW BAHAMAS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE STREAMING AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N70W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR
31N37W TO 22N42W. A BROAD AREA OF LOW/MID-LEVEL DRY SAHARAN AIR
COVERS THE E ATLC S OF 25N TO THE ITCZ E OF 55W AND IS LIMITING
THE AREAL COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS AREA.
$$
MT
000
ABNT20 KNHC 022349
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT ARE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE...AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF
ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY EASTWARD NEAR 10
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 022340
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022203
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUL 02 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVE...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N102W TO 11N104W TO 05N104W
MOVING W ABOUT 12 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
FROM CIMSS. THE WAVE MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF A RATHER BROAD
AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION...AND BISECTS
THE ITCZ. ONLY ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF
THE WAVE N OF THE ITCZ AT THE PRESENT TIME AS STRONGER CONVECTION
THAT DOES FORM IS SHORT-LIVED DUE TO STRONG ELY SHEAR INDUCED BY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL NE-E WINDS OCCURRING ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
A MID/UPPER LEVEL WARM CORE ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO NEAR 21N102W. ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP NEAR
THE WAVE IS WILL LIKELY BE A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE ITCZ. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED THAT
WINDS NEAR THE WAVE ARE LIGHT...WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SWLY FLOW
OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE S HALF OF THE WAVE EXCEPT 15-20 KT NEAR
ITCZ CONVECTION.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 9N90W 10N100W 10N110W 8N125W
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180
NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 81W-90W...AND 120 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 106W-112W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 96W-100W...AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 120W-126W.
...DISCUSSION...
A NARROWING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE FAR NE CORNER OF
THE AREA THROUGH 32N19W...THEN EXTENDS SSW TO 26N116W TO NEAR
21N117W. TO THE SW OF THE TROUGH...AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS SITUATED NEAR 18N129W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 14N140W.
A LARGER DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS WELL W OF THE REGION. A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW PATTERN IS OBSERVED BETWEEN THESE FEATURES.
THIS CONTINUES TO ADVECT DEEP TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE FROM
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NEWD INTO THE AREA FROM 18N TO 21N E TO OVER
THE CREST OF THE ANTICYCLONE. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ENCROACHING INTO THE FAR NW CORNER IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGE
TROUGH W OF THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION W OF LINE FROM
23N107W TO 17N122W TO 10N120W IS UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
PROVIDING RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS AS INDICATED BY MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHES OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING S AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY
OF WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRES PRESENT N OF 14N W OF 123W. WEAK HIGH
PRES GENERALLY COVERS THE AREA N OF 13N W OF 125W. A LAYER OF
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IS OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE
AREA N OF 18N E OF 119W TO ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED AN AREA OF N-NE TO 20
KT WINDS FROM JUST ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 122W AND 127W N TO
ABOUT 17N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE WEAK HIGH AND LOWER PRES IN THE ITCZ REGION. EXPECT THESE
WINDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS.
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE THAT
EXTENDS FROM 23N107W TO 17N122W TO 10N120W ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL
MOSITURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS MOISTURE IS
PRINCIPALLY ATTRIBUTED TO CONDITIONS ALREADY DESCRIBED
ABOVE UNDER TROPICAL WAVE...BUT IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED IN THE
ITCZ REGION AS THE REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS ARE UNDER
A BROAD LOW PRES FIELD. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS CONTRIBUTING FURTHER TO THIS MOISTURE BY
ADVECTING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE
FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA...AND SIMILARLY OVER NICARAGUA SWD INTO THE
FAR ERN PACIFIC.
THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER SRN MEXICO
AND BROAD LOW PRES ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ WILL INCREASE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL E-SE WINDS SW OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT
THE SAME TIME...CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE
INCREASING E TO SE FLOW RESULTING IN AN AREA OF INCREASED
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY WELL OFF THE MEXICAN COAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS LEADING TO GENESIS OF SURFACE LOW PRES JUST N
OF THE ITCZ IN THE VICINITY OF 103W-105W. CURRENTLY...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 97W FROM 6N-12N MOVING W 13 KT. THE LOW
COULD POSSIBLY FORM ON THE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED
BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS FIELD...
AND ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE TROUGH AS PART
OF THE BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED DISTURBED WEATHER TIED TO
THE TROPICAL WAVE DESCRIBED ABOVE. WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN 240 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW BY 48
HOURS DUE TO THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER MEXICO.
AT THE SAME TIME...CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW IS BRINGING SE TO S
WINDS TO 20 KT S OF 05N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W...WITH THIS AREA
LIKELY EXPANDING NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ALSO...MODERATE EASTERLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW S OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WILL BLEED INTO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH SURFACE WINDS BEING ACCELERATED INTO THE
20-30 KT RANGE NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY
EARLY SATURDAY DUE TO VARIATIONS IN LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY. THESE
WINDS WILL BE MAXIMIZED LATE AT NIGHT WHEN NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW IS AT ITS PEAK. STRONG SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC STORMS ARE ALSO
SENDING LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL NORTHWARD...WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT COVERING A LARGE PART OF THE AREA S OF 15N
E OF 116W BY LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING LARGE BATTERING WAVES TO THE
SW COAST OF MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
$$
AGUIRRE
000
ACPN50 PHFO 022000
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST THU JUL 2 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
$$
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021751
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 021750
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO NWS
TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT JUEVES 2 DE JULIO DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABNT20 KNHC 021748
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
AXNT20 KNHC 021731
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 02 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 20
KT. THIS WAVE IS VERY BROAD WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATING AN AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING COVERING NEARLY A 1000 NM
AREA. THE AXIS IS PLACED ROUGHLY IN THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE WHERE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS SUGGEST A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
NEAR 10N29W. SYNOPTIC PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS SHOW A 3 MB PRESSURE INCREASE OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...INDICATIVE OF THE WAVE PASSAGE. QUIKSCAT DATA REVEALS NE
20-25 KT WINDS W OF THE AXIS N OF 14N DUE TO THE TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
CONVECTION IS FAIRLY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERSECTION OF
THE ITCZ.
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED W TO ALONG 47W/48W S OF 16N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE ADJUSTMENT IN POSITION WAS BASED ON AN
INVERTED V-SHAPE IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD WHICH AGREES WITH
A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE INTERACTION WITH AN
UPPER LOW TO ITS W IS FUELING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
9N-11N BETWEEN 49W-52W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W/71W S OF
17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW SLIGHT CYCLONIC
TURNING IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. ONE SMALL PATCH OF ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS IS APPARENT NEAR THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE FROM
16N-17N BETWEEN 70W-72W...ENHANCED BY INSTABILITY ALONG AN E-W
UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 9N27W 7N38W 6N46W 7N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 24W-37W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 49W-54W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING INTO THE
N GULF. DEEP LAYER SW-W FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM 26N-28N E OF 94W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A HIGH
OVER W MEXICO AND AN UPPER LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW SFC WINDS EXIST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE
ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A FRONT OVER THE SE U.S. THIS FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE LOW MOVES NE ALLOWING SFC RIDGING TO BUILD W ACROSS THE GULF.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NE OF
HONDURAS NEAR 15N83W WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO COSTA RICA. ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 77W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...DEEP LAYER DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT W OF THE UPPER LOW IS
SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN...A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRESENT. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND
ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND E ATLC IS SUPPORTING NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT...HIGHEST
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC...ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IN SOUTHWESTERLY
ALOFT IS INTERACTING WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 32N73W TO 27N80W INCLUDING THE NW BAHAMAS. TO THE
E...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE STREAMING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 27N70W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 43W-52W. FARTHER TO THE
E...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND E ATLC...WHERE SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING NEAR A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1025 MB SURFACE
HIGH NEAR 27N58W AND A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 31N27W.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW NEAR 31N37W TO 22N42W. A BROAD AREA OF LOW/MID-LEVEL DRY
SAHARAN AIR COVERS THE E ATLC S OF 25N TO THE ITCZ E OF 55W AND
IS LIMITING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS AREA.
ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR
10N36W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ.
$$
COHEN/CANGIALOSI
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021651 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 02 2009
...CORRECTED TYPO IN FINAL PARAGRAPH...
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVE...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N101W TO 12N103W TO 05N103W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
FROM CIMSS. HOWEVER...THE WAVE IS NOT PARTICULARLY WELL-DEFINED
AS FAR AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IS CONCERNED BASED ON THE
QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 02/1200 UTC...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT N TO NE
WINDS ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE WAVE...AND CROSS EQUATORIAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE S HALF OF THE WAVE.
THE POSITION OF THE WAVE IS BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS
POSITIONS. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...AND ANY DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE IS LIKELY BEING DRIVEN BY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE ITCZ.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N83W TO 10N95W TO 11N105W TO
09N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF 04N BETWEEN 93W AND 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF 14N BETWEEN 98W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 101W AND 106W.
...DISCUSSION...
S OF 20N...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ACROSS THE TROPICS WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ABOUT 420 NM SW OF GUERRERO MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
QUASI-STATIONARY DEEP-LAYER WARM-CORE HIGH CONTINUES BUILDING
OVER MEXICO...SUPPORTED BY THE JUXTAPOSITION OF AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH AND SURFACE HIGH OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SW OF THIS HIGH WILL INCREASE LOW/MID-LEVEL E TO SE WINDS SW OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THE SAME TIME...CROSS
EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE INCREASING E TO
SE FLOW...RESULTING IN AN AREA OF INCREASED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY WELL OFF THE MEXICAN COAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ALL GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE
LOW...WITH THE CONSENSUS POINTING TOWARD A 24-HOUR POSITION OF
10N101W OF A 1009 MB LOW. THIS LOW COULD FORM ON A
WESTWARD-MOVING SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 15N95W TO 11N97W TO 07N98W. THIS TROUGH IS
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED BASED ON THE 02/1200 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS
AND CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS FIELD. WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW BY
48 HOURS AS THE LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW STEERS THE LOW WESTWARD
AROUND 10 KT. THEREAFTER...THE LOW WILL BE ACCELERATED WESTWARD
AS IT INTERACTS WITH STRONGER STEERING FLOW SW OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. THE ENHANCED WINDS IN THE E SEMICIRCLE ARE
THE RESULT OF THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER MEXICO.
AT THE SAME TIME...CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW IS BRINGING SE TO S
WINDS TO 20 KT S OF 05N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W...WITH THIS AREA
LIKELY EXPANDING NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ALSO...MODERATE EASTERLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW S OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WILL BLEED INTO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH SURFACE WINDS BEING ACCELERATED INTO THE
20-30 KT RANGE NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY
EARLY SATURDAY DUE TO VARIATIONS IN LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY. THESE
WINDS WILL BE MAXIMIZED LATE AT NIGHT WHEN NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW IS AT ITS PEAK. STRONG SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC STORMS ARE ALSO
SENDING LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL NORTHWARD...WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT COVERING A LARGE PART OF THE AREA S OF 15N
E OF 116W BY LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING LARGE BATTERING WAVES TO THE
SW COAST OF MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
N OF 20N...
A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 26N143W IS SUPPORTING A SMALL AREA
OF NE TO E TRADE WINDS TO 20 KT FROM 08N TO 14N W OF 125W NE TO
E WINDS TO 20 KT. THIS AREA OF TRADE WINDS WILL BECOME CONFINED
TO LOCATIONS W OF 137W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
CORRESPONDING SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES MORE N/S-ORIENTED NW OF
THE AREA...WITH A WEAKER SECONDARY RIDGE AXIS OVER THE N PORTION
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 28N W OF 120W. A STRONGER
W/E-ORIENTED RIDGE IS NOT BEING SUPPORTED AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BECOMES SITUATED OVER THE N PORTION OF THE AREA...WITH A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX SWINGING THROUGH THE TROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. THE ONLY IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THE
VORTICITY MAX WILL BE STRENGTHENING UPSTREAM SUBSIDENCE BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE N DISCUSSION AREA BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.
$$
COHEN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021600
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 02 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVE...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N101W TO 12N103W TO 05N103W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT
FROM CIMSS. HOWEVER...THE WAVE IS NOT PARTICULARLY WELL-DEFINED
AS FAR AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IS CONCERNED BASED ON THE
QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 02/1200 UTC...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT N TO NE
WINDS ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE WAVE...AND CROSS EQUATORIAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE S HALF OF THE WAVE.
THE POSITION OF THE WAVE IS BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS
POSITIONS. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...AND ANY DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE IS LIKELY BEING DRIVEN BY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE ITCZ.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N83W TO 10N95W TO 11N105W TO
09N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF 04N BETWEEN 93W AND 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF 14N BETWEEN 98W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 101W AND 106W.
...DISCUSSION...
S OF 20N...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ACROSS THE TROPICS WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ABOUT 420 NM SW OF GUERRERO MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
QUASI-STATIONARY DEEP-LAYER WARM-CORE HIGH CONTINUES BUILDING
OVER MEXICO...SUPPORTED BY THE JUXTAPOSITION OF AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH AND SURFACE HIGH OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SW OF THIS HIGH WILL INCREASE LOW/MID-LEVEL E TO SE WINDS SW OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THE SAME TIME...CROSS
EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE INCREASING E TO
SE FLOW...RESULTING IN AN AREA OF INCREASED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY WELL OFF THE MEXICAN COAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ALL GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE
LOW...WITH THE CONSENSUS POINTING TOWARD A 24-HOUR POSITION OF
10N101W OF A 1009 MB LOW. THIS LOW COULD FORM ON A
WESTWARD-MOVING SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 15N95W TO 11N97W TO 07N98W. THIS TROUGH IS
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED BASED ON THE 02/1200 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS
AND CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS FIELD. WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW BY
48 HOURS AS THE LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW STEERS THE LOW WESTWARD
AROUND 10 KT. THEREAFTER...THE LOW WILL BE ACCELERATED WESTWARD
AS IT INTERACTS WITH STRONGER STEERING FLOW SW OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. THE ENHANCED WINDS IN THE E SEMICIRCLE ARE
THE RESULT OF THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER MEXICO.
AT THE SAME TIME...CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW IS BRINGING SE TO S
WINDS TO 20 KT S OF 05N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W...WITH THIS AREA
LIKELY EXPANDING NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ALSO...MODERATE EASTERLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW S OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WILL BLEED INTO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH SURFACE WINDS BEING ACCELERATED INTO THE
20-30 KT RANGE NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY
EARLY SATURDAY DUE TO VARIATIONS IN LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY. THESE
WINDS WILL BE MAXIMIZED LATE AT NIGHT WHEN NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW IS AT ITS PEAK. STRONG SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC STORMS ARE ALSO
SENDING LONG-PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL NORTHWARD...WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT COVERING A LARGE PART OF THE AREA S OF 15N
E OF 116W BY LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING LARGE BATTERING WAVES TO THE
SW COAST OF MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
N OF 20N...
A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 26N143W IS SUPPORTING A SMALL AREA
OF NE TO E TRADE WINDS TO 20 KT FROM 08N TO 14N W OF 125W NE TO
E WINDS TO 20 KT. THIS AREA OF TRADE WINDS WILL BECOME CONFINED
TO LOCATIONS W OF 137W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
CORRESPONDING SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES MORE N/S-ORIENTED NW OF
THE AREA...WITH A WEAKER SECONDARY RIDGE AXIS OVER THE N PORTION
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 28N W OF 120W. A STRONGER
W/E-ORIENTED RIDGE IS NOT BE SUPPORTED AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BECOMES SITUATED OVER THE N PORTION OF THE AREA...WITH A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX SWINGING THROUGH THE TROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. THE ONLY IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THE
VORTICITY MAX WILL BE STRENGTHENING UPSTREAM SUBSIDENCE BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE N DISCUSSION AREA BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.
$$
COHEN
000
ACPN50 PHFO 021345
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST THU JUL 2 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
$$
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021139
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 021135
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO NWS
TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT JUEVES 2 DE JULIO DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABNT20 KNHC 021134
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
AXNT20 KNHC 021120
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 02 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1000 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED
ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 21W-27W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 12N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N66W TO 3N69W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY. THIS WAVE IS JUST E OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN WHICH IS INHIBITING
CONVECTION BESIDES A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION OVER VENEZUELA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 67W-70W.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N17W 9N22W 6N31W 5N47W AND
INTO NE S AMERICA NEAR 5N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 28W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 45W-53W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 24N-28N E OF 86W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN UNITED STATES INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF TO NEAR 24N91W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WRN ATLC ALONG WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT ARE SUPPORTING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
FROM 16N92W TO 20N91W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN ARE
SUPPORTING A LARGE CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 16N-21N
BETWEEN 91W-94W. THE REMAINDER OF THE NW GULF OF MEXICO IS
UNDER A WEAK RIDGE AND REMAINS CALM WITH GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENCE WHICH IS PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NW GULF.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N82W. UPPER
LEVEL CONFLUENCE NW OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROVIDING
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
BRINGING THE NW GULF GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY NEAR THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N W OF 80W AND FROM
18N-20N BETWEEN 802-92W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE ERN
CARIBBEAN CENTERED AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 12N72W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG
WITH MOIST SLY FLOW ALOFT ARE SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 77W-80W. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW OVER COLUMBIA NEAR 7N76W
IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN
76W-81W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY A START OF THE ITCZ
IN THE E PACIFIC. THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS
EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A
TROPICAL WAVE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ELY TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT
COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN REACHING 30 KT IN SOME AREAS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
DOWN THE ERN UNITED STATES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC CENTERED AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH NEAR 28N65W ALONG WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT ARE SUPPORTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW ATLC EXTENDING FROM
THE ERN GULF N OF 26N W OF 76W. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC EXTENDS FROM 31N48W TO 29N49W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR
THIS TROUGH AS WELL AS A 1017 MB SURFACE LOW N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 34N48W ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 28N
BETWEEN 42W-52W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED
BY A SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS...A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
27N55W...A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N33W...AND A 1025 MB
HIGH AT THE EDGE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N22N.
$$
WALTON
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020924
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUL 02 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0730 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVE...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W FROM 04N TO 16N IS MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ BUT THERE IS LITTLE DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY UNDER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FUNNELING BETWEEN
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N101W AND
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN UPPER LOW NEAR 17N81W. EXPECT THE WAVE TO
CONTINUE W AND GRADUALLY INCREASE IN SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW EXPANDS WESTWARD BETWEEN 10N
AND 20N E OF 120W.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 06N78W TO 09N90W TO 09N98W TO
10N110W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CAN
BE FOUND WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS AND 150 NM N OF THE AXIS E
OF 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES BETWEEN 80W AND 88W
WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS AND N OF THE AXIS TO THE COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA.
...DISCUSSION...
TROPICS...
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL ALLOW EASTERLY FLOW TO EXPAND W THROUGH THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A 30 TO 40 KT EASTERLY MID LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION E OF 95W ALONG 13N BY TONIGHT. GAP WINDS AT
THE SURFACE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE
20 KT BY TONIGHT AS A RESULT. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE
WILL REMAIN UNDER STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW...MAKING CONDITIONS LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP. FARTHER E...THE EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BE
CENTERED FROM 10N TO 15N AND IS EXPECTED TO MEET UP WITH THE
CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW E OF 100W. THE SUBSEQUENT ENHANCEMENT OF
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A
SURFACE LOW NEAR 10N98W TONIGHT. WINDS ABOVE 20 KT WILL BUILD IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
BETWEEN THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SE PACIFIC AND THIS
1008 MB LOW. DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THIS LOW WILL LIKELY BE
INHIBITED BY THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT. CROSS-EQUATORIAL S WINDS TO
20 KT ARE ALREADY OBSERVED S OF 05N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W WHERE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENT. CROSS-EQUATORIAL WINDS
ABOVE 20 KT ARE ALSO NOTED IN FAR SW WATERS WHERE THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE ON FRI. IN ADDITION...A STRONG SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE STORM IS BRINGING LONG PERIOD SW SWELL INTO FORECAST
WATERS S OF 07N GENERALLY BETWEEN 95W AND 130W TODAY AND FRI.
SUBTROPICS...
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER W WATERS NEAR 17N130W
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND JOIN FORCES WITH
THE ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE RESULTING UPPER RIDGE
WILL STRETCH ACROSS N WATERS ALONG 24N BY FRI AND WILL FORCE THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NW WATERS N OF THE AREA. THE
SURFACE TROUGH FOUND FROM 30N123W TO 27N124W ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY INTO FRI AS THE TROUGH ALOFT IS PUSHED NE. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT
AND CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE U.S. DESERT SW. WINDS
OFF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 20 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHEN SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE
DESERT SW ARE LOWEST. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE SE EDGE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL BROAD TROUGH HAS TRANSPORTED SOME MID TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION FROM 14N TO 22N W OF
132W BUT THIS CLOUDINESS IS ALREADY WANING AS THE BUILDING DEEP
LAYER HIGH ENHANCES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.
$$
SCHAUER CLARK
000
ACPN50 PHFO 020845
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST WED JUL 1 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
$$
000
AXNT20 KNHC 020535
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 02 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W S OF 13N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED
ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 22W-25W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
A TROPICAL WAVE JUST W OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM
17N64W TO 1N67W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS JUST E OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ERN CARIBBEAN WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-1N BETWEEN 67W-68W AND FROM 6N-7N BETWEEN
65W-67W.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N21W 7N29W 4N45W AND
INTO NE S AMERICA NEAR 5N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 14W-20W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 27W-33W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 24N-30N E OF 90W ESPECIALLY CONCENTRATED OVER S
FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN UNITED
STATES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TO NEAR 25N91W AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC ALONG WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT ARE
SUPPORTING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE WRN GULF OF
MEXICO IS UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND REMAINS CALM WITH
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE OVER THE NW GULF WHICH IS PROVIDING
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WRN GULF.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N82W. UPPER
LEVEL CONFLUENCE NW OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROVIDING
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
BRINGING THE NW GULF GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 78W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE ERN
CARIBBEAN CENTERED AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 14N67W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG
WITH MOIST SLY FLOW ALOFT ARE SUPPORTING... SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 12N
BETWEEN 72W-78W INCLUDING N COLUMBIA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 74W-80W INCLUDING
JAMAICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE
DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE E OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ELY TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT COVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE CARIBBEAN REACHING 30 KT IN SOME AREAS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
DOWN THE ERN UNITED STATES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC CENTERED AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH NEAR 28N65W ALONG WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT ARE SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW ATLC EXTENDING
FROM THE ERN GULF N OF 26N W OF 74W. A SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 28N BETWEEN
42W-54W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS...A 1022 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 26N57W AND A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N34W. A
BROAD AREA OF LOW/MID-LEVEL DRY SAHARAN AIR COVERS THE E ATLC S
OF 25N TO THE ITCZ E OF 55W...WHICH IS LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE ITCZ.
$$
WALTON
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 020521
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO NWS
TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT JUEVES 2 DE JULIO DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BERG
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABNT20 KNHC 020520
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 020519
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020332
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUL 02 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVE...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 100W FROM 5N-16N IS MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. THIS WAVE IS PART OF A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS...WHICH IS ALSO TIED THAT IF THE ITCZ. DEEP
CONVECTION EARLIER NOTED WITH THE WAVE HAS SINCE DISSIPATED
UNDER RATHER STRONG ELY SHEAR INDUCED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL NE-E
WINDS ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N99W. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS E OF THE WAVE
AS IT REMAINS UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AS THE NE-E WINDS
ALOFT DISPERSE ACROSS THE FAR ERN PACIFIC OVER AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 9N90W 10N100W 9N120W 6N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 81W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 98W-103W.
...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES NW TO SE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH 32N127W...AND EXTENDS SEWD TO NEAR 28N118W. A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 23N114W EARLIER. THIS
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAD EARLIER EVOLVED FROM THE TROUGH...AND
IS NEARLY STATIONARY. TO THE SW OF THE TROUGH...AN ELONGATED
MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS SITUATED NEAR 18N128W. A LARGER
DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS WELL W OF THE REGION. A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL SW FLOW PATTERN IS OBSERVED BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. THIS
IS ADVECTING DEEP TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE FROM THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC NEWD INTO THE AREA FROM 14N TO 22N E TO OVER THE CREST
OF THE ANTICYCLONE. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ENCROACHING INTO THE FAR NW CORNER IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGE
TROUGH W OF THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA
W OF 110W IS UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO RATHER STABLE
CONDITIONS. AS INDICATED BY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHES OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING S AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRES PRESENT N OF 14N W OF 120W. WEAK HIGH PRES
COVERS THE AREA N OF 19N W OF 125W. A LAYER OF BROKEN TO
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IS OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE
AREA N OF 22N AND E OF 119W TO NEAR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
QUIKSCAT DATA FROM YESTERDAY REVEALED A SMALL AREA OF N-NE 20 KT
WINDS FROM ABOUT 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W. EXPECT THESE
WINDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HRS.
OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE AREA E OF ABOUT 110W...ABUNDANT
UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. MUCH OF
THIS MOISTURE IS ATTRIBUTED TO CONDITIONS ALREADY DESCRIBED
ABOVE UNDER TROPICAL WAVE...BUT IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED IN THE
ITCZ REGION AS THE REGION AND SURROUNDING AREAS ARE UNDER
A BROAD LOW PRES FIELD. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS CONTRIBUTING FURTHER TO THIS MOISTURE BY
ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA
...AND OVER NICARAGUA SWD INTO THE FAR ERN PACIFIC.
$$
AGUIRRE
000
ACPN50 PHFO 020150
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED JUL 1 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
$$
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 012340
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO NWS
TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MIERCOLES 1 DE JULIO DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BERG
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABNT20 KNHC 012340
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012336
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
AXNT20 KNHC 012315
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 01 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2245 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W TO THE SOUTH
OF 14N MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 19W AND 22W.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W TO THE SOUTH
OF 14N MOVING WEST 15 KT TO 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 9N37W.
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE...FROM 17N62W TO 10N65W
TO SOUTHERN VENEZUELA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.
...ITCZ...
AT THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 9N23W TO 7N35W TO 4N45W...
INTO NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA TO 5N57W ALONG THE BORDER OF
SURINAME AND GUYANA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...
AND FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND THE COASTS OF FRENCH GUIANA/
SURINAME/GUYANA/VENEZUELA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN AFRICA FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 13W AND 15W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 70W
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST SUPPORTS
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N78W ACROSS INTERIOR
NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 85W...TO SOUTHERN
COASTAL LOUISIANA...BEYOND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N90W 28N82W 30N74W TO 32N66W.
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IN THE DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
IS INTERACTING WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONT. AN UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF INTERIOR MEXICO
NEAR 25N103W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER...TO NORTH 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N80W.
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 72W AND THE LINE FROM THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO HONDURAS. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CYCLONIC CENTER HAVE
BEEN DISSIPATING WITH TIME. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WITH
LINGERING BUT WEAKENING SHOWERS ARE FROM PANAMA TO 13N BETWEEN
79W AND 82W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A RIDGE
COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE 18N80W CYCLONIC CENTER.
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 20N42W TO 8N53W.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL DRY SAHARAN AIR COVERS
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE ITCZ TO 25N TO EAST OF 55W.
THE DRY AIR IS LIMITING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA.
$$
MT
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012204
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 01 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVE...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 99W FROM 5N-16N MOVING W 12 KT. THIS
WAVE IS PART OF A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...WHICH
ALONG WITH THAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ CONTAINS SMALL CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF THE ITCZ
FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 93W-98W. THE CONVECTION IS BEING SUSTAINED
PRIMARILY BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OCCURRING ON THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYLONE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO NEAR 20N100W...HOWEVER STRONG UPPER LEVEL NE WINDS ARE
PROVIDING FOR A RATHER HOSTILE UPPER ENVIRONMENT LEADING TO
SHEARING OF THE TOPS OF THE CONVECTION.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 9N90W 10N104W 10N104W 9N115W
7N125W 6N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 80W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 95W-101W.
...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES NW TO SE INTO THE REGION
AT 32N127W...AND EXTENDS SEWD TO NEAR 28N118W AND THEN SE TO A
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 25N115W. THIS
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS SEPARATING AWAY FROM THE TROUGH AS IT
MOVES NE. TO THE SW OF THE TROUGH...AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS SITUATED NEAR 18N129W. A LARGER DEEP LAYER TROUGH
IS WELL W OF THE REGION. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW PATTERN
IS OBSERVED BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. THIS IS ADVECTING DEEP
TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NEWD INTO
THE AREA FROM 14N TO 21N E TO ABOUT 127W. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS ENCROACHING INTO THE FAR NW CORNER IN ADVANCE OF THE
LARGE TROUGH. OTHERWISE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA W OF 110W
IS UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO RATHER STABLE
CONDITIONS. AS INDICATED BY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHES OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING S AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRES PRESENT N OF 14N W OF 120W WITH A PARENT WEAK
HIGH CENTER OF 1017 MB LOCATED NEAR 26N139W. A LAYER OF BROKEN
TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IS OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE
AREA N OF 22N AND E OF 119W TO NEAR THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1450 UTC THIS MORNING
REVEALED A SMALL AREA OF N-NE 20 KT WINDS FROM ABOUT 10N TO 18N
BETWEEN 120W AND 127W. EXPECT THESE WINDS
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HRS.
OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE AREA E OF ABOUT 110W...ABUNDANT
UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. MUCH OF
THIS MOISTURE IS ATTRIBUTED TO CONDITIONS ALREADY DESCRIBED
ABOVE UNDER TROPICAL WAVE...BUT IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED IN
THE BROAD ITCZ REGION AS THE REGION LIES IN A BROAD LOW PRES
FIELD. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN
IS CONTRIBUTING FURTHER TO THIS MOISTURE BY ADVECTING MOISTURE
FROM CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA AND NICARAGUA SWD
INTO THE FAR ERN PACIFIC.
$$
AGUIRRE
000
ACPN50 PHFO 011950
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST WED JUL 1 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
$$
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011756
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011751
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO NWS
TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MIERCOLES 1 DE JULIO DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
AXNT20 KNHC 011747
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 01 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST AND IS
APPROXIMATELY ALONG 20W S OF 13N. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IN THIS AREA SHOWS THIS WELL-DEFINED FEATURE MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT IN THE WAKE OF A LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
THAT RECENTLY MOVED OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST. ALSO...CYCLONIC
MOTION OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IS EVIDENT NEAR THIS FEATURE.
TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSES FROM DAKAR SENEGAL INDICATE AN ABRUPT SHIFT
OF ANOMALOUS FLOW BELOW THE 600 MB LEVEL FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 01/0900 UTC...INDICATING THAT WAVE PASSAGE
LIKELY OCCURRED AT DAKAR AROUND THAT TIME. THIS FEATURE
COINCIDES WITH A DISTINCT MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. THUS...A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ADDED TO THE 01/1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS
OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLC. CONSIDERABLE LOW/MID-LEVEL DRY SAHARAN
AIR IS LIMITING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THIS
WAVE...HOWEVER SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N
BETWEEN 13W-22W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. RECENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN
INVERTED-V PATTERN IN THE COVERAGE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS INDICATE CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW NEAR THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-9N BETWEEN 34W-37W.
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN FROM 15N60W
TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W TO 2N65W MOVING W 15-20
KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD BASED ON RECENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...SCATTEROMETER DATA...AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
DATA. IN PARTICULAR...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...ALONG WITH THE QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 01/0945 UTC...
INDICATE CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
WAVE. SURFACE PRESSURE RISES HAVE RECENTLY BEEN NOTED ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS FOLLOWING WAVE PASSAGE. ADDITIONALLY...RECENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE CORRESPONDS
WITH AN INVERTED-V PATTERN IN THE COVERAGE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
THIS WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 62W-65W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. WHILE THIS
WAVE IS PRIMARILY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION...IT IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 92W-97W
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF S MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE SW
GULF OF MEXICO.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 7N23W 7N36W 5N48W 6N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 23W-27W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 38W-44W
AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 51W-59W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE E UNITED STATES EXTENDS INTO THE NE
GULF. ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IN MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT E OF
THE TROUGH AXIS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N E OF 90W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE W
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY ABUNDANT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA.
ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SW GULF IS CENTERED NEAR
22N96W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N
W OF 95W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W/98W S OF 17N
DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. ACROSS THE S
CENTRAL AND SE GULF...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER...WHERE SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF
A SURFACE RIDGE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THIS SURFACE RIDGE
IS RESULTING IN E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SW GULF.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
15N78W WITH ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
13N W OF 76W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT W OF THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN...A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS PRESENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 13N67W.
ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS
THE FAR E CARIBBEAN IS BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...AND THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS
DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND E
ATLC IS SUPPORTING E TO SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC...ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IN SOUTHWESTERLY
ALOFT IS INTERACTING WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 70W-79W...
AS WELL AS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 76W-79W INCLUDING THE NW
BAHAMAS. TO THE E...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE STREAMING AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N70W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N BETWEEN 46W-55W.
FARTHER TO THE E...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC...WHERE SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING NEAR A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
1025 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 28N30W. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 31N37W TO
22N42W. DIFFLUENCE IN MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N BETWEEN
33W-38W. A BROAD AREA OF LOW/MID-LEVEL DRY SAHARAN AIR COVERS
THE E ATLC S OF 25N TO THE ITCZ E OF 55W AND IS LIMITING THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS AREA.
$$
COHEN
000
ABNT20 KNHC 011738
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011516
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUL 01 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVE...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W/98W N OF 04N MOVING WEST AT 10 TO
15 KT. THE UPPER FLOW IS SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT HOWEVER NORTHEAST
UPPER LEVEL WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT OVER THE SYSTEM IS LIMITING THE
PERSISTENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 300 NM EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...07N77W TO
10N100W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ EAST OF 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 11N97W.
...DISCUSSION...
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS A BROAD WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW
PATTERN COVERS MOST OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 110W.
THE AREA IS MOSTLY DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS. THE EXCEPTION IS A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THIS AREA THAT IS SOUTH OF 20N AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF
130W. THIS AREA IS ALSO NOT DRY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS
WITH SOME UPPER MOISTURE THAT EMANATES FROM FROM ITCZ CONVECTION
THAT IS WEST OF THE AREA. ONLY HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS MOISTURE. IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS
COVER THIS AREA NORTH OF 15N EAST OF 120W WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 120W. ELSEWHERE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ARE FOUND IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
TO THE EAST OF 110W BROAD WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT TO
90W. THE AREA IS MOIST IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH MULTI
LEVEL BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS. THE AREA NORTH OF ABOUT 12N
FROM 105W TO 110W IS MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED IN THE BROAD ITCZ REGION EAST OF
110W. THE ENHANCED CONVECTION EXTENDS NORTH OF 06N FROM 91W TO
98W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE.
THE UPPER FLOW IN THIS REGION IS DIFFLUENT ALOFT WHICH
CONTRIBUTES TO THE ENHANCED CONVECTION. TO THE EAST OF 90W
CYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT AND IS THE WESTERN PART OF A LARGE
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR JAMAICA.
ENHANCED CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE ITCZ REGION EAST OF 86W.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 110W. REMAINDER
OF THE SURFACE AREA IS ANALYZED AS A WEAK TROUGH.
$$
LL
000
ABPZ30 KNHC 011447
TWSEP
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM PDT WED JUL 01 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES WERE OBSERVED DURING JUNE...TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE-E AND HURRICANE ANDRES. THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE FOR
JUNE IS FOR ABOUT TWO TROPICAL STORMS TO FORM AND ONE OF THEM TO
BECOME A HURRICANE. INTERESTINGLY...ANDRES IS THE FIRST HURRICANE
TO FORM IN JUNE SINCE 2000.
THE 2009 SEASON IS OFF TO A SLOW START WITH ONLY ONE NAMED STORM
THIS SEASON. IN AN AVERAGE YEAR...ABOUT THREE TROPICAL STORMS FORM
BY THE END OF JUNE.
REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER CASE LETTERS...
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/2009EPAC.SHTML
SUMMARY TABLE
NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH) DEATHS
---------------------------------------------------------------
TD ONE-E 18-19 JUN 35 0
H ANDRES 21-24 JUN 75 1
---------------------------------------------------------------
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
ACPN50 PHFO 011330
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED JUL 1 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
1. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 780 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO
MOVED WEST SLOWLY...PRODUCING A LARGE THUNDERSTORM NEAR 13N 146W.
ALTHOUGH THIS STORM WAS IMPRESSIVE...WARMING CLOUD TOPS SUGGEST THAT
IT WILL WEAKEN NOW. PULSING ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IMPLIES
POOR ORGANIZATION...SO THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP SLOWLY IF AT ALL
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
$$
000
ABNT30 KNHC 011151
TWSAT
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0800 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE.
HOWEVER...A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED DURING LATE MAY.
ON AVERAGE...A TROPICAL STORM IS NOTED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN IN
JUNE ABOUT ONCE EVERY OTHER YEAR.
REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER CASE LETTERS...
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/2009ATLAN.SHTML
SUMMARY TABLE
NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH) DEATHS
--------------------------------------------------------------
TD ONE 28-29 MAY 35 0
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011150
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 011150
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO NWS
TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MIERCOLES 1 DE JULIO DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABNT20 KNHC 011149
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
AXNT20 KNHC 011122
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED
ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD STRUCTURE S OF
10N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
3N-8N BETWEEN 33W-37W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED
ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND CONTINUES ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF DUST AND A MIDDLE LAYER SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE W.
WHILE NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE...THE WAVE MAY BE ENHANCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION W OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE SRN LESSER ANTILLES FROM
11N-14N BETWEEN 61W-64W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT. WHILE
THIS WAVE IS PRIMARILY IN THE E PACIFIC...IT IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER SRN MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 93W-99W.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N11W 9N18W 7N27W 5N43W AND
INTO NE S AMERICA NEAR 5N54W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 17W-21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 38W-50W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN UNITED
STATES AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL/NE GULF FROM N OF 27N E OF 92W TO OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE W ATLC. THIS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
PATTERN IS ALSO SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA E OF 82W N OF 25N. A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDS FROM 20N89W
TO 25N85W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 21N95W AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N78W ARE SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS S OF 20N BETWEEN 91W-96W. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
96W IS ALSO ENHANCING THIS ACTIVITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO REMAINS UNDER A WEAK RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1010 MB
SURFACE HIGH 28N94W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS UP TO 15 KT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N78W DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE
SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N68W DOMINATING THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES. MOIST DIFFLUENT FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N82W TO 16N84W. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW OVER NRN
COLUMBIA WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF
10N BETWEEN 76W-80W. MOIST SLY FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 74W-76W. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS ALSO SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 61W-64W. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROBABLY BEING ENHANCED BY THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ELY TRADE
WINDS OF UP TO 25 KT COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN
BRINGING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOIST WLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE W
ATLC NEAR 28N70W AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AT THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES ARE SUPPORTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE WRN
/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 29N BETWEEN 47W-79W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 47W. ON THE SURFACE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC IS UNDER A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF
SURFACE HIGHS...A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N36W AND A 1023
MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N20W. A BROAD AREA OF
AFRICAN DUST COVERS THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC S OF 25N TO THE ITCZ E
OF 53W.
$$
WALTON
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010908
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 01 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0700 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVE...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W N OF 04N MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15
KT. 20 TO 30 KT UPPER LEVEL NE WINDS OVER THE SYSTEM ARE
LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION OVER FORECAST WATERS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND NEAR THE WAVE PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF THE
MEXICAN COAST FROM 94W TO 101W AND WITHIN 45 NM OF THE COSTA
RICA...NICARAGUA...AND EL SALVADOR COAST FROM 10N TO 13N. THE
FORECAST FOR THIS WAVE IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ LIES ALONG AN AXIS FROM 08N78W TO 07N82W TO 12N106W TO
08N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND
ALONG THE NW COAST OF PANAMA AND EXTREME SW COAST OF COSTA RICA
WITHIN 90 NM S AND 75 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 84W.
...DISCUSSION...
TROPICS...
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UNDER A
REGION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...MAKING CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL
ALLOW EASTERLY FLOW TO BUILD THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE 30-40 KT MID LEVEL EASTERLY JET
WILL BE CENTERED NEAR 13N AND COULD HELP ENHANCE THE VORTICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE TONIGHT AND BECOME THE
DOMINANT FEATURE BY THU NIGHT AS IT APPROACHES 100W. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE SE QUADRANT BY THU NIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IN THE SE PACIFIC AND THIS 1008 MB LOW. CROSS-EQUATORIAL S
WINDS TO 20 KT ARE ALREADY OBSERVED S OF 05N BETWEEN 82W AND 97W
WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUFFICIENT. CROSS-EQUATORIAL
WINDS ABOVE 20 KT ARE ALSO NOTED IN FAR SW WATERS. A STRONG
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE STORM WILL BRING LONG PERIOD SW SWELL INTO
FORECAST WATERS S OF 06N BETWEEN 100W AND 130W BEGINNING THIS
EVENING.
SUBTROPICS...
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER W WATERS NEAR 15N130W
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL FORCE THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NW WATERS N OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH FOUND FROM
31N122W TO 28N128W TO LINGER OVER THIS REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PUSHED NE. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SW U.S. WINDS OFF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAY
BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHEN
SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE DESERT SW ARE LOWEST. STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH HAS TRANSPORTED SOME MID
TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS INTO THE REGION S OF 25N W OF
125W BUT THIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD WANE AS THE BUILDING DEEP LAYER
HIGH ENHANCES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.
$$
SCHAUER CLARK
000
ACPN50 PHFO 010730
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST TUE JUN 30 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
$$
000
AXNT20 KNHC 010550
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED
ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD STRUCTURE S OF
9N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
3N-7N BETWEEN 31W-33W. ALSO AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST
ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. WHILE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
THIS ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY THE WAVE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND CONTINUES ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF DUST AND A MIDDLE LAYER SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S AMERICA FROM 1N-5N
BETWEEN 56W-59W. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS MORE PROMINENT IN THE E PACIFIC REGION...REFER
TO THE TWDEP FOR MORE DETAILS.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N11W 9N18W 7N28W 5N41W AND
INTO NE S AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 14W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 34W-38W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS ACROSS THE NRN GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W
ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA ENTERING THE GULF WATERS NEAR 30N84W
EXTENDING TO NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA NEAR 29N92W. THE FRONT
IS LOCATED UNDER THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
UNITED STATES. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH ALONG WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT ARE SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE E GULF FROM 24N-29N E
OF 86W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE W ATLC. A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF EXTENDS FROM 18N91W TO 26N87W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH OVER SRN MEXICO NEAR 18N100W AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N77W ARE SUPPORTING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS S OF 22N BETWEEN 87W-91W. THESE FEATURES
ARE ALSO SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER S
FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 26N E OF 82W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS UNDER A WEAK RIDGE
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS UP TO 15 KT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N77W DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE
FAR SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N63W DOMINATING THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES. MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 67W-75W. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE LOW OVER COLUMBIA NEAR 9N74W IS ALSO
SUPPORTING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WRN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALSO SUPPORTING A LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N79W TO 14N83W. THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS ALSO SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-14N E
OF 63W AND INTO THE ATLC. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROBABLY BEING
ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ELY
TRADE WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN
BRINING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SMALL PIECE OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE W
ATLC DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N81W AND CONTINUES TO 31N80W. MOIST
WLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE W ATLC
NEAR 27N72W AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE NW
BAHAMAS AND THE WRN ATLC N OF 24N BETWEEN 64W-81W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A
SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 26N-29N
BETWEEN 35W-38W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS...A 1021 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N52W AND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 28N38W. A
BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN DUST COVERS THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC S OF 26N
TO THE ITCZ E OF 50W.
$$
WALTON
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 010520
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO NWS
TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MIERCOLES 1 DE JULIO DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABNT20 KNHC 010518
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010518
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010259
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 01 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0230 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVE...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W/95W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING
WEST 10 KT TO 15 KT. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN
SUGGESTING THAT A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N. SOME OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION WAS ORGANIZED AT LEAST DURING THE LAST 6 TO
8 HOURS AGO. THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DISSIPATING
AND/OR ALREADY HAS DISSIPATED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...
AT LEAST FOR THE MOMENT. THE GFS FORECAST COMPUTER MODEL HAS
NOT BEEN DEVELOPING ANY SYSTEM IN THE AREA.
...ITCZ...
07N77W TO 06N86W 12N105W TO 07N128W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 98W AND
101W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN 81W AND 98W.
THE EARLIER DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DISSIPATING.
NOW ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN
130W AND 140W...UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
...DISCUSSION...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 21N112W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N TO 27N
BETWEEN 108W AND 127W.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N125W
TO 29N128W TO 24N140W.
$$
MT
000
ACPN50 PHFO 010145
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST TUE JUN 30 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
1. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO
IS MOVING TO THE WEST SLOWLY. THE DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL BE THE LAST MENTION OF THIS
FEATURE UNLESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION REDEVELOPS.
ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
$$
BRAVENDER
000
AXNT20 KNHC 302343
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS
WAVE REMAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS
OBSERVED ON THE TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS AND EXHIBITS A LOW-
LATITUDE INVERTED-V CLOUD SIGNATURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS S OF 9N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 29W-39W AND IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ITCZ. ALSO OF NOTE...THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE
ERN ATLC UNDER A DRY MIDDLE LEVEL SAHARAN AIR LAYER OF DUST...
FURTHER SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. THE
WAVE MATCHES UP WELL WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED
ON THE TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS AND CONTINUES ON THE LEADING EDGE
OF DUST AND A MIDDLE LAYER SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 54W-61W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
TRINIDAD.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W/93W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT. THE
WAVE REMAINS MORE PROMINENT IN THE E PACIFIC REGION...BUT IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS SRN MEXICO AND
ALONG THE WRN YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING INTO THE FAR ERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N19W 7N26W 5N30W 3N38W
4N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN
11W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN
29W-39W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE NRN GULF EXTENDING
FROM THE W ATLC NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO NEAR NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA AND THEN ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST TO NEAR PORT
ARTHUR TEXAS. LOCATED ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN GULF FROM
24N-28N E OF 90W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE W
ATLC. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FURTHER ENHANCED BY A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS EXTENDING TO NEAR 88W. THE
WRN GULF REMAINS UNDER A WEAK AND NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO NEAR GALVESTON TEXAS...
THUS PROVIDING A MAJORITY OF THE GULF WITH LIGHT WINDS TO 15 KT
THIS EVENING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LOW DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN
CENTERED NEAR 16N77W WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH
AMERICA OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES. MOIST SWLY
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS NRN COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA
THAT IS SPREADING UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ENHANCING THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 54W IN THE WRN TROPICAL
ATLC. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND THE
PROXIMITY OF THE E PACIFIC ITCZ AXIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WRN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.
MODERATE TO STRONG ELY TRADE WINDS COVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
USHERING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N77W AND CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA AND INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND EXTENDS TO NEAR 31N. IT IS
PROVIDING A LARGE AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE W ATLC TO
ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 25N W OF 68W. THIS
ACTIVITY EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND STRAITS OF
FLORIDA INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SAME UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES EWD TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 26N60W THAT IS
PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 53W-68W. OTHERWISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS INFLUENCED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM SWRN PORTUGAL TO THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO NEAR 25N65W
THAT IS ANCHORED ON A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N34W. A BROAD
AREA OF AFRICAN DUST COVERS THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC S OF 26N TO
THE ITCZ E OF 50W.
$$
HUFFMAN
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 302333
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO NWS
TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MARTES 30 DE JUNIO DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302330
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
ABNT20 KNHC 302330
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302158
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 30 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2100 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVE...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W/93W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N MOVING
WEST 10 KT TO 15 KT. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 10N WITH SOME ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
10N TO 12N BETWEEN 88W AND 93W. THE GFS FORECAST COMPUTER
MODEL AT THIS TIME DOES NOT DEVELOP ANY SYSTEM IN THE AREA.
...ITCZ...
07N77W TO 12N91W TO 10N96W TO 12N108W TO 09N120W TO 12N140W.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 06N TO 07N
BETWEEN 92W AND 94W...FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W...AND
FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 96W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 81W
AND 88W...AND FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 127W AND 130W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 13N139W 15N138W 17137W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND TO THE
EAST OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
...DISCUSSION...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N112W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N TO 27N
BETWEEN 108W AND 127W.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N125W
TO 29N128W TO 24N140W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING IN SOUTHWESTERN HONDURAS ALONG THE BORDER
WITH EL SALVADOR...AND INTO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA ALSO.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING AT THE PERIPHERY OF
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS IN THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
$$
MT
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