000
FOUS30 KWBC 230554
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1254 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
...VALID 06Z MON NOV 23 2009 - 12Z TUE NOV 24 2009...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.
SULLIVAN
$$
000
FOUS30 KWBC 230117
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
816 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
...VALID 03Z MON NOV 23 2009 - 00Z TUE NOV 24 2009...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.
PETERSEN
$$
000
FOUS30 KWBC 221739
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1239 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
...VALID 18Z SUN NOV 22 2009 - 00Z TUE NOV 24 2009...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.
ECKERT
$$
000
FOUS30 KWBC 221337
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
836 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
...VALID 15Z SUN NOV 22 2009 - 12Z MON NOV 23 2009...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.
ECKERT
$$
000
FOUS30 KWBC 220554
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1254 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
...VALID 06Z SUN NOV 22 2009 - 12Z MON NOV 23 2009...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.
SULLIVAN
$$
000
FOUS30 KWBC 220124
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
824 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
...VALID 03Z SUN NOV 22 2009 - 00Z MON NOV 23 2009...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.
PETERSEN
$$
000
FOUS30 KWBC 211738
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1237 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
...VALID 18Z SAT NOV 21 2009 - 00Z MON NOV 23 2009...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.
ECKERT
$$
000
FOUS30 KWBC 211340
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
839 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
...VALID 15Z SAT NOV 21 2009 - 12Z SUN NOV 22 2009...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE
EXPECTED.
ECKERT
$$
000
FOUS30 KWBC 210128
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
828 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
...VALID 03Z SAT NOV 21 2009 - 00Z SUN NOV 22 2009...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNW RBO 40 NW RKP 30 WSW VCT 15 NNW VCT 20 WNW 5R5 20 NE 5R5
15 S SGR LBX 25 SSE LBX 45 SSE BYY 50 E 2R8 45 SSE NGP 40 SE NQI
15 SSE NQI 20 NNW RBO.
DECIDED TO KEEP A SLGT RISK OUT FOR PTNS OF SERN TX..MAINLY FOR
THE NEXT SVRL HRS..BFR HVY RNFL THREAT
DIMINISHES. ALTHO SIGNIFICANT CNVCTN HAS MOVD OFFSHORE AND SFC
FLOW HAS TURNED NELY INTO SERN TX..SOME HIER PWS..AOA 1.50
INCHES..AND LGT SELY H85 FLO PERSISTS INTO THE REGION AND A WELL
DEFINED S/WV NOW VCNTY OF THE MID RIO GRANDE VLY WL BE MOVG THRU
THE AREA SHORTLY. LRG SCALE LIFT WITH THIS S/WV WL LIKELY SUPPORT
SOME CONTD CNVCTV DVLPMNT UNTIL 06Z OR SO OVR PARTS OF SERN
TX..AND GIVEN STILL REASONABLY HI MSTR IN PLACE..SOME ISOLD HVIER
RNFL AMTS ARE PSBL. DON`T SEE THE INTENSITY OF RAINS WE HAD LAST
NGT..BUT SOME LCL 1-2 INCH TOTALS IN AN HR OR SO STILL PSBL..WHICH
COULD CAUSE PROBS IN AREAS WHERE THE HVIER RNFL OCCURRED LAST
NGT/ERY FRI MRNG.
TERRY
$$
000
FOUS30 KWBC 201809
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
108 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
...VALID 18Z FRI NOV 20 2009 - 00Z SUN NOV 22 2009...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
LVJ 20 NE GLS 35 SE GLS 60 SSE LBX 45 E 2R8 25 SSE 2R8
40 SSE NQI 15 SE BKS RBO 45 WSW VCT 45 SE BAZ 35 N VCT
10 WSW 5R5 15 NW LBX LVJ.
...SERN TX...
DEEP MSTR CONTINUES TO SURGE NWD ACRS THE WRN GULF COAST AND INTO
SERN TX AHEAD OF A S/WV TROF PUSHING EWD ACRS THE SRN PLAINS
ATTM...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL LOCALLY HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS
ACRS PORTIONS OF SRN/SERN TX THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND
EARLY EVENING HRS. MUCH OF THE EARLIER DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS
SITUATED ALONG THE TX COAST HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE...HOWEVER
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SEWD ACRS CNTRL TX. LATEST SAT/RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRMS NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BNDRY...AND EVEN NR THE TX COAST AS MOIST/UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE INLAND FROM THE GULF. STG FORCING IN ASSOC
WITH THE S/WV TROF AND VERY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FRM IT
WILL CONTINUE TO HELP SUSTAIN THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER SERN
TX...WITH THE CONVECTION LIKELY INTENSIFYING FURTHER AS IT
APPROACHES THE TX COAST WHERE STRONGER LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND
THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE SITUATED. GIVEN PWATS 1.75 INCHES AND STG
FORCING...THE RAINFALL RATES AGAIN SHOULD BE QUITE
INTENSE...EXCEEDING 2 IN/HR. FFG VALUES ARE ALREADY QUITE LOW
LOCALLY AS A RESULT OF THE HVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 12 HRS...AND
HENCE ADDITIONAL FF WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ORRISON
$$
000
FOUS30 KWBC 201406
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
905 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
...VALID 15Z FRI NOV 20 2009 - 12Z SAT NOV 21 2009...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 SSE LBX 35 S PSX 15 ESE NGP RBO 35 N ALI 35 E COT 10 WSW COT
10 SE UVA 15 S ERV 20 ESE T82 TPL 20 ENE TRL 15 WSW LBR 30 E LBR
35 ENE 4F4 25 S GGG 10 NNW UTS 15 NW DWH 15 SE IAH 20 NE GLS
15 SSE GLS 30 SSE LBX.
...TX COAST...
SURGE OF VERY DEEP MSTR NWD ACRS THE WRN GULF AHEAD OF S/WV TROF
PUSHING EWD ACRS THE SRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ACRS PORTIONS OF SRN/SERN TX. TWO MAIN AREAS OF
RAIN/CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE WITH ONE ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SEWD ACRS CNTRL TX...AND THE OTHER NEAR DVLPG SFC LOW PRESSURE AND
AN ASSOCD WARM FRONT ACRS THE NWRN GULF. THIS LATTER AREA HAS
ALREADY BEEN A FOCUS OF SOME VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LAST 6 TO
12 HRS ALONG THE S TX COAST...AND IS IN PROXIMITY TO PWS AOA 1.75
INCHES AND AN INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT REGION BETWEEN SUBTROP AND
SRN BRANCH OF SPLIT POLAR JET. HOWEVER LATEST SATL/RADAR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS/STRONGEST
CONVECTION PUSHING OFFSHORE INTO THE NWRN GULF...AND THIS TREND IS
FAVORED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE 00Z/06Z MDLS. NEVERTHELESS...STRONG
WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD CONTINUE OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING S/WV TROF AND ASSOC COLD FRONT...AND WITH STRONG LARGE
SCALE FORCING STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST...FEEL THAT MUCH OF
SRN/SERN TX WILL STILL SEE A THREAT OF VERY HVY CONVECTIVE RAINS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE LOCALLY...WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME ISOLATED FF PROBS.
ORRISON
$$
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