000
ACCA62 TJSJ 210001
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
700 PM EST VIERNES 20 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
AXNT20 KNHC 202355
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 6N25W 7N44W 7N60W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 24W-32W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 12N42W TO 5N45W. THE CONVECTION COVERS AN
AREA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 39W-48W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
TEXAS NEAR 27N95W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO
26N90W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
24N98W. 25 KT WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO IN
VICINITY OF THE LOW. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 90W-94W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW
COVERS THE GULF. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 26N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE S GULF. EXPECT THE
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE TO THE MISSISSIPPI COAST IN 24 HOURS WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND A
WARM FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. EXPECT 15-20 KT N WINDS W
OF THE COLD FRONT AND 10 KT S WINDS E OF THE COLD FRONT. ALSO
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER N FLORIDA AND
E OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS DOMINATES THE BASIN. A 1004 MB LOW
IS CENTERED INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 75W-79W. PATCHES OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA NAMELY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 14N AND E OF
62W...OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM
17N-22N BETWEEN 82W-90W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 11N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS
PRODUCING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING ONLY OVER N COLOMBIA. EXPECT...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT...SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N75W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR
25N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF PUERTO RICO
ALONG 25N64W 19N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM E OF
THIS TROUGH AXIS. A LONG STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE ATLANTIC
ALONG 32N26W 29N33W TO AN EMBEDDED 1015 MB LOW NEAR 27N51W TO
30N64W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 46W-52W...AND FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 59W-68W. FURTHER E
...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM S PORTUGAL TO SW OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 25N27W. EXPECT THE LOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE
NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LEAVING THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE AREA S OF 30N. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 40W-55W DUE TO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC LOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
$$
FORMOSA
000
ABNT20 KNHC 202327
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202325
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202202
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI NOV 20 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 04N80W TO 06N91W TO 05N106W
TO 08N119W TO 06.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS E OF 81W...AND WITHIN 240 NM
N OF AXIS AND 90 NM S OF AXIS W OF 116W.
...DISCUSSION...
W OF 115W...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALONG THE COASTS
OF WASHINGTON-OREGON-N CAL TO 23N127W WAS DIGGING E-SE ON THE
EAST SIDE OF REX BLOCK CENTERED ON THE LARGE RIDGE N OF HAWAII.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NRN CALIFORNIA TO 30N133W
TO 28N40W AND CONTINUES WWD AS A SHEAR AXIS. THE FRONT WAS
SHIFTING ESE AND TOWARDS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NE PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N132W WAS
COLLAPSING...WITH THE STRONGER CENTRAL PACIFIC RIDGE...CENTERED
ON A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH ALONG 33N AND N OF HAWAII...WAS
SLIDING AND BUILDING EWD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS
S OF THE HIGH PRES FROM GENERALLY 20-22N TO THE NRN FRINGES OF
THE ITCZ ALONG 07.5N FROM 114W WWD BEHIND 140W. THE RESULTANT
WIND WAVES WERE MIXING WITH A FADING PULSE OF NW SWELL TO
PRODUCE SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT N OF 10N AND W OF 115W...WITH SEAS UP
12 TO 14 FT FROM 17N138W AND DOWNWIND...IN THE STRONGEST NE
TRADE WIND FLOW. FARTHER E...THE TRADE WIND FLOW HAS DIMINISHED
SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. THESE FRESH TRADES WILL EXPAND AND SPREAD FARTHER E
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUILD E BEHIND THE FRONT N OF THE AREA. THE FRONT ITSELF IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE BY SAT NIGHT ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DYNAMICS LIFT OUT. MEANWHILE
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE AREA OF A WEAK
JET MAX ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH
THE MODEST TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE TO ENHANCE SCATTERED
CONVECTION N OF THE ITCZ W OF 120W. LOOKING AHEAD THE
WEEKEND...THE BLOCKING RIDGE N OF HAWAII WILL BREAK DOWN AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING CENTRAL PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS BEGUN TO BUILD BEHIND THE CURRENT
WEAKENING W COAST COLD FRONT TO REMAIN IN PLACE N OF THE
AREA...MAINTAINING A BROAD SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM
10N TO 25N W OF 120W. SE CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW WILL CONVERGE
WITH THE NE TRADES TO KEEP CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ACTIVE ALONG
THE ITCZ W OF 120W AS WELL. MEANWHILE ANOTHER PULSE OF NW SWELL
YIELDING COMBINED SEAS OF 10 FT AND GREATER WILL DOMINATE MOST
OF THE MARINE AREA W OF 115W TONIGHT AND SAT.
E OF 115W...THE MAIN WEATHER PHENOMENA REMAINS THE PERSISTENT
CENTRAL AMERICA GAP WINDS. HIGH RESOLUTION SCATTEROMETER DATA
SHOWED NELY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...AGAIN THIS MORNING...ENHANCED BY DRAINAGE EFFECTS...
WITH 20 KT WINDS NOTED OFF OF THE GULF OF FONSECA. FRESH TRADE
WINDS ARE PUSHING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN S ACROSS PANAMA AS
WELL...INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA NEAR 20 KT...ENHANCING MODERATE
TO STRONG NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST.
MEANWHILE...SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SHOWED NLY FLOW OF 20-25 KT
PERSISTING TO FLOW S OUT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BUT
IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BRIEFLY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY BEFORE
POST FRONTAL WINDS ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO FLOW DRAIN
THROUGH THE PASS AGAIN SUNDAY.
$$
STRIPLING
000
ACPN50 PHFO 202000
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST FRI NOV 20 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
$$
FOSTER
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 201818
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
100 PM EST VIERNES 20 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
AXNT20 KNHC 201756
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 6N25W 7N41W 8N46W 7N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 20W-36W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS AND ANALYZED FROM 11N39W TO 5N45W. THE
CONVECTION COVERS AN AREA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 40W-47W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND IS INDUCING
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS AS A DEVELOPING 1013 MB
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N95W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THE
LOW TO 25N91W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT ALONG WITH A ZONE OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE LOCATED NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT AND EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 91W.
PRIMARILY W-SW ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THIS ALONG WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SE CONUS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR SKIES E
OF 90W AND ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO
CUBA AND HISPANIOLA COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 65W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 77W-81W. ALSO...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...WESTERN
PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N W OF 81W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 65W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 50W. DRY
NW FLOW ALOFT IS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES...
HOWEVER...HIGHER VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER STRETCH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS OCCURRING N
OF 16N BETWEEN 65W-70W AND ALSO EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 53W-61W. THIS INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NE CONUS AND
EASTERN CANADA SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N76W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL AND INTO THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW
NEAR 31N75W TO 28N74W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 23N78W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND STATIONARY FRONT. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NE NORTH ATLC AND SUPPORTS A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N28W AND
EXTENDS W-SW TO A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N50W. THE
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W-NW FROM THE LOW ALONG 29N60W TO THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N75W IN THE W
ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE ENTIRE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. AIDED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS FOCUSED NEAR THE 1016
MB LOW ARE BEING ENHANCED FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 40W-52W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM PUERTO RICO TO 25N63W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY E OF THE TROUGH FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN
58W-65W. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
17N40W TO 24N36W AND ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 18N45W TO
24N44W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 18N TO THE STATIONARY
FRONT BETWEEN 34W-46W.
$$
HUFFMAN
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 201740
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
100 PM EST VIERNES 20 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201739
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
ABNT20 KNHC 201739
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201545 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI NOV 20 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N78W 08N90W TO 06N105W TO 09N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S
OF AXIS E OF 82W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS W OF 120W.
...DISCUSSION...
W OF 115W...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST TO 27N140W IS DIGGING ON THE EAST SIDE OF REX
BLOCK CENTERED N OF HAWAII. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 29N140W AND IS SHIFTING ESE. A 1020
MB SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 27N132W IS DISSIPATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH KT TRADE WINDS
S OF THE HIGH PRES FROM GENERALLY 10N TO 18N W OF 120W. THE
TRADE WIND FLOW HAS DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY AS THE
HIGH TO THE NORTH HAS WEAKENED. TRADES WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY
HOWEVER AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT N OF THE AREA. THE
FRONT ITSELF WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH SAT AS UPPER
DYNAMICS LIFT OUT. MEANWHILE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE RIGHT
REAR ENTRANCE AREA OF A WEAK JET MAX ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE MODEST TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE TO
ENHANCE SCATTERED CONVECTION N OF THE ITCZ W OF 120W. LOOKING
AHEAD THE WEEKEND...THE BLOCKING RIDGE N OF HAWAII WILL BREAK
DOWN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CENTRAL PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE WEAKENING
COLD FRONT TO REMAIN IN PLACE N OF THE AREA...MAINTAINING A
BROAD SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 10N TO 25N W OF 120W.
SE CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW WILL CONVERGE WITH THE NE TRADES TO
KEEP CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ACTIVE ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 120W AS
WELL. MEANWHILE ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL UP TO 10 FT WITH UP TO
14S PERIODS WILL S INTO THE AREA.
E OF 115W...MAIN ISSUE IS PERSISTENT GAP WINDS. HIGH RESOLUTION
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...AGAIN THIS MORNING DUE TO MAINLY DRAINAGE
EFFECTS...WITH 20 KT WINDS NOTED OFF OF THE GULF OF FONSECA.
FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE PUSHING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS
PANAMA AS WELL...INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA...ENHANCING MODERATE TO
STRONG NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST.
$$
CHRISTENSEN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201542
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI NOV 20 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N78W 08N90W TO 06N105W TO 09N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S
OF AXIS E OF 82W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS W OF 120W.
...DISCUSSION...
W OF 115W...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OFF THE
WASHINGTON COAST TO 27N140W IS DIGGING ON THE EAST SIDE OF REX
BLOCK CENTERED N OF HAWAII. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 29N140W AND IS SHIFTING ESE. A 1020
MB SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 27N132W IS DISSIPATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH KT TRADE WINDS
S OF THE HIGH PRES FROM GENERALLY 10N TO 18N W OF 120W. THE
TRADE WIND FLOW HAS DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY AS THE
HIGH TO THE NORTH HAS WEAKENED. TRADES WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY
HOWEVER AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT N OF THE AREA. THE
FRONT ITSELF WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH SAT AS UPPER
DYNAMICS LIFT OUT. MEANWHILE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE RIGHT
REAR ENTRANCE AREA OF A WEAK JET MAX ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE MODEST TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE TO
ENHANCE SCATTERED CONVECTION N OF THE ITCZ W OF 120W. LOOKING
AHEAD THE WEEKEND...THE BLOCKING RIDGE N OF HAWAII WILL BREAK
DOWN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CENTRAL PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE WEAKENING
COLD FRONT TO REMAIN IN PLACE N OF THE AREA...MAINTAINING A
BROAD SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 10N TO 25N W OF 120W.
SE CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW WILL CONVERGE WITH THE NE TRADES TO
KEEP CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ACTIVE ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 120W AS
WELL. MEANWHILE ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELL UP TO 10 FT WITH UP TO
14S PERIODS WILL S INTO THE AREA.
E OF 115W...MAIN ISSUE IS PERSISTENT GAP WINDS. HIGH RESOLUTION
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO...AND 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AGAIN
THIS MORNING DUE TO MAINLY DRAINAGE EFFECTS...WITH 20 KT WINDS
NOTED OFF OF THE GULF OF FONSECA. FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE PUSHING
FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS PANAMA AS WELL...INTO THE GULF OF
PANAMA...ENHANCING MODERATE TO STRONG NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OFF
THE COLOMBIAN COAST.
$$
CHRISTENSEN
000
ACPN50 PHFO 201345
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST FRI NOV 20 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
$$
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 201143
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
700 AM EST VIERNES 20 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR AVILA
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
AXNT20 KNHC 201138
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 19 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
10N14W 7N27W 8N37W 8N50W 11N60W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 9N
BETWEEN 14W AND 16W...FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 24W AND 35W...
AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 41W AND 48W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 13N33W 6N40W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 10N53W 16N58W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM
6N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EVERYWHERE. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OF TEXAS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N TO 28N
BETWEEN 95W AND 96W.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND REACHES 15N59W JUST OUTSIDE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH
OF 14N...CURVING NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH
AMERICA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 23N58W 21N61W 18N65W NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO...TO 16N66W...IN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
31N77W TO JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...THROUGH THE
FLORIDA KEYS...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
31N74W TO 25N74W TO THE CUBA COAST NEAR 21N77W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 31N71W.
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE 31N74W 21N77W TROUGH. ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
31N63W TO 23N62W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N54W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE AREA
FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 46W AND 57W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N33W TO 28N50W TO 30N63W. A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE IS
NEAR 27N50W...WITH A TROUGH FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO 22N53W.
WAS ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO
30N BETWEEN 44W AND 60W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N32W
17N41W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE SPINNING CYCLONICALLY
AROUND THIS TROUGH. A SECOND ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 16N46W 23N45W BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE SPINNING
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THIS TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WESTERN SAHARA TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO 11N39W.
$$
MT
000
ABNT20 KNHC 201133
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201133
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
ABNT20 KNHC 201133
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201133
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200905
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI NOV 20 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 05N77W 07N89W 06N99W 08N112W 07N118W 08N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS
FROM 126W TO 132W.
...DISCUSSION...
A LARGE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS TO THE N OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM 30N136W TO 27W140W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
1021 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 26N132W. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE NW AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE FOUND TO THE SOUTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE FROM 09N TO
18N W OF 111W. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED N OF THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS GENERATED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT HAVE MOVED INTO THE W PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. NE
SWELLS WILL BE GENERATED WITH THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES. THIS
WILL MAKE FOR CONFUSED COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED NW
AND NE SWELLS IN THE WATERS N OF 09N AND W OF 111W THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS CENTERED FROM 22N140W TO 26N124W TO
24N107W. TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET..ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ALONG MUCH OF THE S
PORTION OF THE AREA. THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF WEAK TROUGHING SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET...ONE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 14N140W TO
02N131W AND THE OTHER WITH AXIS FROM 16N98W TO 01N112W. MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG 10N BETWEEN 126W AND 132W. THERE
IS RESIDUAL CONVECTION ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...GENERATED
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION...180 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 105W
AND 109W...HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS
THE STRENGTH OF THE GUST FRONT WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE
IS HELPING TO LIMIT CONVECTION ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE
ITCZ.
$$
AL
000
ACPN50 PHFO 200745
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST THU NOV 19 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
$$
000
AXNT20 KNHC 200604
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 19 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
10N15W 7N22W 9N33W 7N57W 8N36W 7N44W 12N60W. ISOLATED AND
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
4N TO 12N BETWEEN 23W AND 48W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
33W/34W FROM 4N TO 12N. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
59W/60W FROM 7N TO 18N.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EVERYWHERE.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS SUPPORTS THE STATIONARY FRONT.
THE STATIONARY FRONT REACHES 23N90W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM
23N90W TO THE COAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 96W AND 98W.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND REACHES 14N61W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ANY PRECIPITATION NEAR THIS TROUGH HAS DISSIPATED ALREADY
FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N...CURVING
NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH AMERICA.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 73W/74W FROM 28N TO 33N. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND AND 71W.
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N55W ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM
20N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER
THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...AND FROM 25N
TO 30N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
25N60W 20N64W TO 16N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N35W 17N38W. A SECOND ATLANTIC OCEAN
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 43W/44W FROM 19N TO 22N. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WESTERN SAHARA
TO 18N26W AND 11N36W.
$$
MT
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 200537
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
100 AM EST VIERNES 20 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI/BEVEN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABNT20 KNHC 200536
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200534
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST THU NOV 19 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200318
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI NOV 20 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 5N77W 6N90W 5N100W 7N1114W 8N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS FROM
127W-130W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS W OF 136W.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N135W TO 28N140W. OTHERWISE A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA W OF 110W. THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
11N117W N TO 32N120W...ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NE TO 16N106W. A 90-100 KT JET STREAM
ENTERS THE AREA AT 23N140W TO 27N120W THEN SE ACROSS SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA THEN INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS
N OF THE JET. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 420 NM S
OF THE JET AXIS FROM 140W-125W. DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ACROSS NW MEXICO TO THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH E OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE
DEEP TROPICS WITH AXIS FROM 14N102W TO 5N103W. EXCEPT FOR AN
AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG THE ITCZ MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 15N E OF 120W
HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IN THIS AREA.
THE PRES GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 1020 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 29N130W IS PRODUCING A STRONG
ENOUGH GRADIENT FOR WINDS TO REACH 20 TO 25 KT FROM 10N TO 20N W
OF 120W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA
N OF 20N BETWEEN 115W-135W.
A SURFACE TROUGHS IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 14N110W TO
4N109W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N WITHIN 150
NM E OF TROUGH.
$$
DGS
000
ACPN50 PHFO 200155
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST THU NOV 19 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
$$
KINEL
000
AXNT20 KNHC 192355
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N20W 9N33W 7N45W 12N60W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE AXIS FROM
5N-11N BETWEEN 27W-30W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM 12N32W TO 5N33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-10N BETWEEN 32W-37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-8N BETWEEN 44W-46W...FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 49W-51W...AND FROM
12N-15N BETWEEN 54W-57W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
NEAR 28N80W TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N90W. A
WARM FRONT CONTINUES NW TO THE COAST OF SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 26N97W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW GULF FROM 23N-27N W OF 90W. A
1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N ALABAMA NEAR 34N87W. 10-15 KT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF N OF THE FRONTS.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER S GULF S OF THE FRONTS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE GULF. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE S GULF. EXPECT A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF
NEAR 28N94W IN 24 HOURS WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND
CONVECTION.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS DOMINATES THE BASIN. PATCHES OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA NAMELY OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...NEAR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 82W-86W...THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF
80W...AND INLAND FROM BELIZE S TO PANAMA. THE ITCZ ALSO
TRAVERSES NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA FROM TRINIDAD TO N COLOMBIA TO
PANAMA WITH BROKEN TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS PRODUCING SHOWERS E OF 64W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE
CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE N OF 10N. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS S OF 10N DUE TO THE ITCZ. EXPECT... SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT...SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTS W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA ALONG 32N78W
28N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF IDA IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC ALONG 27N58W 20N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E ALONG
23N43W 18N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG
23N34W 18N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THIS TROUGH
AXIS. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 32N32W TO 30N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W ALONG
29N48W 30N60W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 36N10W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO SW OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N22W.
$$
FORMOSA
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 192349
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
700 PM EST JUEVES 19 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI/BEVEN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABNT20 KNHC 192335
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192335
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST THU NOV 19 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192156
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU NOV 19 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 4N77W 6N90W 7N105W 5N120W 8N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM S OF AXIS FROM 107W-110W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF AXIS W OF 136W.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. OTHERWISE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE
AREA W OF 110W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 11N118W N TO 32N134W...ANOTHER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NE TO 16N107W. A
90-105 KT JET STREAM ENTERS THE AREA AT 24N140W TO 26N125W THEN
SE ACROSS SOUTHERN TIP BAJA CALIFORNIA THEN INTO CENTRAL MEXICO.
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF THE JET. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS
ARE WITHIN 600 NM S OF THE JET AXIS FROM 140W-130W. DOWNSTREAM
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS NW MEXICO TO THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH E OF THE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IN THE DEEP TROPICS WITH AXIS FROM 15N102W TO
4N113W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ AND A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
107W-110W. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 15N E OF
120W HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IN THIS AREA.
THE PRES GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 1023 MB
SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 31N130W IS PRODUCING STRONG
ENOUGH GRADIENT FOR WINDS TO REACH 20 TO 25 KT FROM 10N TO 21N W
OF 120W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA
N OF 20N BETWEEN 115W-135W.
A SURFACE TROUGHS IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 14N109W TO
5N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
107W-110W.
$$
DGS
000
ACPN50 PHFO 191955
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST THU NOV 19 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
$$
KINEL
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191800
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
100 PM EST JUEVES 19 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABNT20 KNHC 191759
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191759
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST THU NOV 19 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
000
ABNT20 KNHC 191759
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191759
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST THU NOV 19 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
000
AXNT20 KNHC 191738
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 6N20W 9N30W 6N44W 11N57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE AXIS
BETWEEN 25W-29W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM
11N32W TO 4N30W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS SHEARED E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 25W-31W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N
BETWEEN 50W-55W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A DYING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO
S OF FORT MYERS NEAR 26N82W CONTINUING ALONG 24N86W 22N91W. THE
FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS
EXTENDING TO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT PROTRUDES INTO A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN CENTERED N OF
THE AREA NEAR A 1024 MB HIGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER. ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS OF 10-15 KTS ARE AROUND THE
SURFACE RIDGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW
ALOFT IS DRAWING SLIGHTLY MOIST AIR ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO BECOME DIFFUSE LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE N AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST
FRI.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM HONDURAS ACROSS
ERN CUBA AND INTO THE WRN ATLC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AFFECTING JAMAICA...CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA/PANAMA S OF 10N
BETWEEN 76W-80W DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE E PACIFIC
ITCZ ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC CROSSES INTO THE NE
CARIBBEAN TO 17N65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
TROUGH AXIS. SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO BEGINNING
TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE
TROUGH JUST E OF THE ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH HIGHER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA AND S AMERICA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. AS OF 1500
UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB LOW OFF THE S
CAROLINA COAST NEAR 33N78W TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST NEAR
28N80W CONTINUING AS A DYING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT AXIS.THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER
THE ERN CONUS. UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THIS UPPER
TROUGH AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WRN
CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE WRN ATLC TO NEAR 39N69W...NW OF
BERMUDA...IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
29N-33N BETWEEN 71W-75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 26N61W
21N62W INTO THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N65W. THE TROUGH IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N58W TO E OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 10N51W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO
SUPPORTS A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
AXIS FROM 16N59W TO 9N59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. TO
THE N...A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N50W. A COLD FRONT E OF
THE LOW CENTER ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N34W BECOMING
STATIONARY AT 30N41W CONTINUING THROUGH THE LOW CENTER ALONG
30N50W 30N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM
OF THE FRONT...AND N OF 23N BETWEEN 47W-58W. ACROSS THE ERN
ATLC... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR
35N11W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A PAIR
OF SURFACE TROUGHS PROTRUDE INTO THE RIDGE. THE FIRST IS FROM
23N42W TO 18N46W. THE SECOND IS FROM 22N34W TO 16N36W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG BOTH TROUGH AXES. THESE SMALL SURFACE
TROUGHS ARE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
NW AFRICA TO W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO NEAR 12N40W. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET TO THE E SIDE OF THE
TROUGH IS SHEARING MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE ITCZ TO
THE NE-E.
$$
WALTON
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191536
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU NOV 19 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM
04N77W TO 07N87W TO 05N99W TO 07N109W TO 04N123W TO 08N140W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.
...DISCUSSION...
SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA CAPTURE A 1026 MB HIGH
PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 34N129W N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
SCATTEROMETER ALSO SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT TRADE
WINDS S OF THE HIGH PRES...MAINLY FROM 10N TO 25N W OF 120W.
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT N OF 25N WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...ALLOWING AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT OVER THE NE PACIFIC TO PUSH SOUTHEAST. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRES WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH TODAY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RELAX A LITTLE AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM 30N125W TO
25N140W BY LATE FRI...BUT WILL BE PRACTICALLY WASHED BY THAT
TIME WITH ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
MORE SUBSTANTIALLY...THE FRONT WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF 11 TO 13S NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS TO 10 FT
PUSHING INTO THE AREA W OF 120W THIS WEEKEND. THIS IS IN
ADDITION TO THE 8 TO 12 FT NW SWELL ALREADY IN PLACE N OF 10N W
OF 120W AS DEPICTED TO AN EXTENT BY AN OVERNIGHT JASON ALTIMETER
PASS.
FURTHER SOUTH...DESPITE PERSISTENT TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE INTO
THE ITCZ...THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL UPPER SUPPORT GIVEN THE
NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT IS LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 120W. SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE
EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 11N117W
IS SUPPRESSING ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 110W TO 120W. HOWEVER...WEAK
UPPER TROUGHING EAST OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS AIDING MODEST
CONVECTION BETWEEN 105W AND 110W. A VERY DRY AIRMASS E OF 110W
IS PROHIBITING ANY CONVECTIVE GROWTH.
STRONG GAP WIND FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS LIKELY STILL IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
NEAR THE COAST. THIS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY TO LESS THAN 20
KT BY EARLY FRI. MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL
AMERICAN COAST IS RESULTING IN A BROAD PLUME OF 20 TO 25 KT FLOW
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AND A SMALLER AREA OF 20 KT FLOW
IN THE GULF OF FONSECA.
$$
CHRISTENSEN
000
ACPN50 PHFO 191345
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST THU NOV 19 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
$$
000
AXNT20 KNHC 191154
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 19 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
7N11W 7N29W 7N50W 8N60W IN NORTHEASTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 4N TO 10N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29W FROM
3N TO 11N. IT IS NOT EASY TO SEPARATE THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION
FROM PRECIPITATION JUST WITH THIS TROUGH. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 10N53W TO 17N59W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN CLUSTERS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LARGE-SCALE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 26N...THANKS TO A MISSOURI/ILLINOIS/IOWA
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT IS ON
TOP OF A 1015 LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A COLD FRONT THAT IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CYCLONIC CENTER PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 27N83W...TO JUST OFF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM
22N89W AND CURVES TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AS A WARM FRONT.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE NORTH OF 26N. NO
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N
TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND THE MEXICO GULF COAST.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF IDA FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS
DISSIPATED. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OF THE NOW-DISSIPATED IDA
COVERS THE AREA FROM 25N59W TO 16N60W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA
TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM
15N TO 18N BETWEEN 64W AND 69W. THE SHOWERS NEAR DOMINICA AND
GUADELOUPE HAVE DISSIPATED. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N...CURVING NORTHWARD
FROM THE NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH AMERICA.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 26N58W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO 21N62W TO 15N61W IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF IDA HAS
DISSIPATED. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N60W 24N65W 21N69W.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N52W
26N56W 19N59W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN
39W AND 60W WITH THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT THAT WERE TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA AT 19/0000 UTC. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
21N32W 19N36W 15N37W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA
FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 32W AND 38W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 25N40W 20N45W 16N47W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVER
THE AREA FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 41W AND 46W. AN EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N9W TO
SOUTHERN MOROCCO TO THE SOUTHERN WESTERN SAHARA...TO THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS TO 12N40W. THIS TROUGH BORDERS THE ITCZ
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 24W AND 31W.
$$
MT
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 191152
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
700 AM EST JUEVES 19 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR AVILA
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191152
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST THU NOV 19 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
ABNT20 KNHC 191151
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST THU NOV 19 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190924
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU NOV 19 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM
08N82W TO 05N94W TO 08N107W TO 06N117W TO 08N140W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 104W AND 106W AND BETWEEN 113W AND 117W.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM NEAR 24N112W TO 23N128W TO
28N140W WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE N OF IT. SURFACE
HIGH PRES IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N135W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO 20N112W. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATER TODAY REACHING 30N136W TO
28N138W BY THIS EVENING...THEN NEAR 30N128W TO 26N133W BY FRI
EVENING WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN N OF 32N WITH THE FRONT
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE. BUILDING NW
SWELL OF UP TO 15 FT WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL
PROPAGATE THROUGH THE N PORTION OF THE WATERS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
TO THE S...THE SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR 24N107W TO
21N129W TO 15N140W WITH STRONG SW FLOW TRANSPORTING MOISTURE
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
CENTERED S OF THE JET NEAR 12N119W. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE S OF THE JET HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGHOUT THE PAST 24 HOURS.
MODERATE NE TO E TRADES IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE PERSIST MAINLY
FROM 09N AND 25N W OF 117W AS INDICATED BY EARLY MORNING
SCATTEROMETER PASSES DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH TO THE N AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. WIND
WAVES COMMINGLING WITH NORTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO RESULT IN
COMBINED SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT OVER THIS SAME AREA AS CAPTURED BY
AN EARLIER JASON ALTIMETER PASS.
GAP WINDS...
N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY FRI
AFTERNOON AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. TO THE
SE...THE COMBINATION OF TIGHT GRADIENT FLOW AND DRAINAGE EFFECTS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALL FOR 20 TO 25 KT NE TO E WINDS THROUGH THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH FRI.
$$
LEWITSKY
000
ACPN50 PHFO 190745
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST WED NOV 18 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
$$
000
AXNT20 KNHC 190551
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 19 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
7N11W 8N21W 7N41W 8N54W 9N61W IN NORTHEASTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 21W
AND 23W...AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 4N TO 10N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30W/31W
FROM 3N TO 11N. SURFACE TROUGHS HAVE BEEN ANALYZED DURING THE
LAST FEW DAYS IN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W.
IT IS NOT EASY TO PINPOINT EXACT LOCATIONS OF THESE TROUGHS
AT THIS TIME. QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT HIGH RESOLUTION DATA JUST HAVE
MISSED THIS AREA AND THEY HAVE PROVEN TO BE INCONCLUSIVE.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN
48W AND 50W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 17N
BETWEEN 52W AND 60W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LARGE-SCALE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 26N...THANKS TO A MISSOURI/ILLINOIS
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT IS
ON TOP OF A 1014 LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A COLD FRONT THAT IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CYCLONIC CENTER PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 27N...TO JUST OFF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM
22N89W AND CURVES TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AS A WARM FRONT.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE NORTH OF 26N. NO
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF IDA FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS
DISSIPATED. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OF THE NOW-DISSIPATED IDA
COVERS THE AREA FROM A 27N60W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO
21N62W AND 15N61W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA TO THE WEST
OF THE TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 20N
BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 40 NM TO THE EAST OF
DOMINICA...AND BETWEEN 60W AND GUADELOUPE. OTHER SHOWERS ARE
FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 59W AND 60W...AND ULTIMATELY TO THE
NORTH OF 20N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HE MONA PASSAGE. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE
SOUTH OF 14N...CURVING NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
SOUTH AMERICA.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N60W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO 21N62W TO 15N61W IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF IDA HAS
DISSIPATED. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N61W 25N65W 22N68W.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N56W
25N58W 20N61W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N46W
TO 31N60W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN
39W AND 60W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 34N9W TO SOUTHERN MOROCCO TO THE SOUTHERN WESTERN
SAHARA...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 12N40W. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH.
$$
MT
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 190533
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
100 AM EST JUEVES 19 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABNT20 KNHC 190532
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST THU NOV 19 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190531
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST WED NOV 18 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190316
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU NOV 19 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 8N83W 5N95W 7N105W 6N115W 8N130W 7N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF 125W. DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA TO 25N122W. A 90-105 KT JET STREAM IS S
OF THE TROUGH FROM 24N140W TO 25N118W WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
115 KT THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE WINDS DECREASE
TO 95-100 KT THEN INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS
N OF THE JET. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 600 NM S
OF THE JET AXIS FROM 140W-120W. A BROAD FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS S OF THE JET BETWEEN 115W-130W...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 112N121W. TO THE E AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 12N109W WITH A TROUGH FROM
THE CIRCULATION S TO 4N114W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SEPARATES
THIS CIRCULATION WITH ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 12N94W.
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 15N E OF 115W HAS SUPPRESSED
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IN THIS AREA.
STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WAS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS
MOVED E AND THE PRES GRADIENT HAS WEANED SOME ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND THE GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 20-30 KT IN
THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF
115W. THE HIGH IS PRODUCING STRONG ENOUGH GRADIENT FOR WINDS TO
REACH 20 TO 25 KT FROM 10N TO 25N W OF 120W. LARGE NW SWELLS ARE
N OF 25N W OF 125W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
COVER THE AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 118W-135W.
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. ONE
FROM 12N104W TO 4N104W. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE TROUGH,
ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N131W TO 4N134W. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.
$$
DGS
000
ACPN50 PHFO 190154
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
ISSUED BY TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM HST WED NOV 18 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180..
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN
000
ACPN50 PHFO 190150
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
ISSUED BY TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM HST WED NOV 18 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...WEST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN
000
ACPN50 PHFO 190145
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED NOV 18 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180...
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 182355
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MIERCOLES 18 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABNT20 KNHC 182343
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST WED NOV 18 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182343
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST WED NOV 18 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN
000
AXNT20 KNHC 182334
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 18 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 7N20W 9N28W 6N35W 11N60W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
18W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN
55W-58W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR 30N83W TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N86W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES TO THE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 20N94W 18N95W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS. A STATIONARY
FRONT IS INLAND OVER MEXICO E OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL
MOUNTAINS ALONG 17N96W 20N98W 24N99W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT TO THE GULF COAST. A 1020 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N93W. 10-15 KT
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
IS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N AND W OF 88W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF PRODUCING MOSTLY ZONAL
FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT TO DRIFT TO CENTRAL FLORIDA
WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT TO RETROGRADE BACK NORTH
TOWARDS THE S TEXAS COAST WITH SHOWERS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS DOMINATES THE BASIN. PATCHES OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA NAMELY OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...E CUBA BETWEEN
76W-80W...NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 81W-84W
...THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...AND INLAND FROM S GUATEMALA S TO
PANAMA. THE ITCZ ALSO TRAVERSES NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA FROM
TRINIDAD TO N COLOMBIA TO PANAMA WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS PRODUCING SHOWERS S OF 17N
AND E OF 62W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE CARIBBEAN IS
EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE N OF 12N. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
S OF 12N DUE TO THE ITCZ. EXPECT... SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT...SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTS W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N66W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. A
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E ALONG 29N55W 21N60W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THIS TROUGH.
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N61W. THE TAIL END
OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N50W TO
31N60W 31N65W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 35N15W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 29N30W
24N50W.
$$
FORMOSA
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182122
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED NOV 18 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 9N83W 5N95W 8N100W 5N115W 9N128W 7N140W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF 130W. DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
FROM 32N120W TO 25N120W. THE COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH HAS DISSIPATED. A 90-105 KT JETSTREAM IS S OF
THE TROUGH FROM 23N140W TO 24N120W THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF THE
JET. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE
JET AXIS FROM 140W-125W. A BROAD FLAT RIDGE IS S OF THE JET
BETWEEN 115W-130W...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED
NEAR 13N122W. TO THE E AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS IS
CENTERED NEAR 12N110W WITH A TROUGH FROM THE CIRCULATION S
TO 5N114W.. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 25O NM
EITHER SID OF THE TROUGH.
STRONG HIGH PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING E AND THE PRES
GRADIENT HAS WEANED SOME ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE GALE
FORCE WINDS HAVE DECREASE TO 25-30 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SURFACE
HIGH PRES RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. THE HIGH IS PRODUCING
STRONG ENOUGH GRADIENT FOR WINDS TO REACH 20 TO 25 KT FROM 8N TO
25N W OF 120W. LARGE NW SWELLS ARE N OF 25N W OF 125W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN
118W-135W.
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. ONE
FROM 13N102W TO 4N102W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 7N-10N. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
12N130W TO 5N131W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. FROM 8N-12N.
$$
DGS
000
ACPN50 PHFO 181945
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
ISSUED BY TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM HST WED NOV 18 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180...
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
000
AXNT20 KNHC 181744
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 18 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 8N25W 6N37W 9N47 10N56W.
ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
26W-32W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED WITHIN THE AXIS FROM
13N49W TO 7N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS SHEARED
E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 45W-48W. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N59W TO 8N57W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION TO THE E OF THE AXIS FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 51W-58W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM GEORGIA THROUGH
THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N83W
CONTINUING ALONG 25N85W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W
LINING THE MEXICO COASTLINE ALONG 19N91W 18N95W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AXIS N OF 22N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N BETWEEN 90W-97W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. MODERATELY DRY AIR
BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS DRY
AIR IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE NW GULF. SURFACE WINDS UP TO 20 KTS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT THE FRONT TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NW GULF.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
HONDURAS ACROSS ERN CUBA AND INTO THE WRN ATLC. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF COSTA RICA/PANAMA S OF 10N BETWEEN 76W-82W DUE TO SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE E PACIFIC ITCZ. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OVER PUERTO RICO
INDICATED BY RADAR DATA. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE BASIN WITH HIGHER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED AT A
1012 MB LOW NEAR 26N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
CENTER ALONG 23N66W 21N70W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS TO
THE E ALONG 28N54W 25N55W 22N56W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN
53W-59W. THIS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MORE ENHANCED
BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED
NEAR 27N62W EXTENDING TO JUST E OF THE NRN LESSER ANTILLES AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E WITH AXIS ALONG 48W. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE SURFACE LOW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FARTHER E FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN
46W-49W. ACROSS THE ERN ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 30N26 SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONGWAVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC ACROSS PORTUGAL TO THE
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N16W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
17N25W TO NEAR 11N33W. AN UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG THE E SIDE OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SHEARING MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TO THE NE
ENHANCING A LINE OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 11N29W TO
28N6W.
$$
WALTON
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 181734
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
100 PM EST MIERCOLES 18 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181732
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST WED NOV 18 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
ABNT20 KNHC 181730
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST WED NOV 18 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181552
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED NOV 18 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM
09N83W TO 06N90W TO 08N100W TO 06N113W TO 09N128W TO 09N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS W OF 125W.
...DISCUSSION...
W OF 115W...SCATTEROMETER PASSES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
INDICATED 20 TO 30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM 31N125W TO 27N140W 20N127W TO 27N138W. THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE ENERGY SUPPORTING THIS FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO STALL AND
WEAKEN. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH N OF 25N W OF
125W THROUGH TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND SHIFT E...CREATING A SQUEEZE WITH THE COAST THAT WILL
ALLOW NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE N OF 25N E OF 125W THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WITH HEIGHTS TO
15 FT IS PUSHING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. FURTHER
SOUTH...SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW A LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES WINDS PERSISTING FROM 08N TO 25N W OF 125W. THE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH LATE THU AS THE HIGH PRES N OF
THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD...AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE NE PACIFIC. THE TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF
125W...WHICH WILL DIMINISH AS TRADE WIND FLOW DIMINISHES.
E OF 115W...HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 12Z THIS MORNING
SHOWS 35 TO 40 KT WINDS STILL ACTIVE THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS FILTERING THROUGH FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE ITHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SHIFT EAST
AND MODERATE...ALLOWING THE GALES OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE STRENGTH BY THIS AFTEROON...WITH WINDS
FURTHER DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT BY THU AFTERNOON. FRESH NE TO
E FLOW IS NOTED EMERGING SOME DISTANCE OUT OF THE TEHUANTEPEC
AREA OFFSHORE TO AS FAR W AS 100W. ELSEWHERE LAND-BASED
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL
AMERICA CONFIRM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ARE SHOWING THE COOL AND DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT HAS
ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT IS
ALSO SHOWING FRESH DRAINAGE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF
FONSECA...AS WELL AS FRESH TO STRONG FLOW IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. THIS FLOW WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THROUGH TODAY...BUT
EXPECT A REPEAT OVERNIGHT AT LEAST OVER PAPAGAYO.
$$
CHRISTENSEN
000
ACPN50 PHFO 181355
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED NOV 18 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
$$
KINEL
000
AXNT20 KNHC 181155
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 18 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
FROM 10N13W AT THE AFRICA COAST TO 6N30W TO 7N45W 7N51W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED DISORGANIZED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
12N16W 7N30W 9N43W 14N59W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 48W/49W
FROM 7N TO 14N. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 7N53W 15N58W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE-SCALE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE U.S.A. MIDWEST TO THE NORTH OF 30N...THANKS TO A
MISSOURI/ILLINOIS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THAT IS ON TOP OF A 1011 LOW PRESSURE CENTER. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MISSOURI/ILLINOIS CYCLONIC CENTER
TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS. A COLD FRONT THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE
WHOLE CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH FEATURE PASSES THROUGH THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 25N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO MEXICO BETWEEN THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GUATEMALA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE 1009 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF IDA THAT IS NEAR
27N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS PART OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH 22N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 17N65W IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM
17N TO 19N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE 1009 MB REMNANT OF IDA
REACHES THE MONA PASSAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N...CURVING NORTHWARD
FROM THE NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH AMERICA. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA WITH THE ITCZ.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO 22N64W TO 17N65W IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMNANT OF IDA HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWLY BUT SURELY
AND NOW IS NEAR 27N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM THE REMNANT
LOW CENTER OF IDA TO 22N65W TO THE MONA PASSAGE. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 54W AND 61W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
25N TO 28N BETWEEN 49W AND 50W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N15W JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 23N18W TO THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 10N35W.
$$
MT
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 181131
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MIERCOLES 18 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR AVILA
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181128
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST WED NOV 18 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
ABNT20 KNHC 181127
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST WED NOV 18 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180923
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED NOV 18 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM
08N78W TO 07N105W TO 06N107W TO 10N130W TO 11N137W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 90
NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 79W AND 82W AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 123W AND 130W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 138W.
...DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
AREA FROM 30N129W TO 26N140W AHEAD OF A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING N OF THE AREA FROM NEAR POINT CONCEPCION CA TO
27.5N140W. A 0300 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS AND A 0624 UTC ASCAT PASS
BOTH INDICATED N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT W OF THE FRONT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 26N133W TO NEAR 16N112W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES TO THE S/THE ITCZ...WITH
NE TO E TRADES IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE PERSISTING W OF 120W.
THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES FARTHER TO THE
SE TODAY AS THE RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE. BUILDING NW SWELL UP TO 15
FT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY N OF 09N AND W OF
114W...GRADUALLY DECAYING AS IT MOVES FARTHER TO THE S. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER BY THU NIGHT REACHING
FROM NEAR 30N130W TO 26N135W BY FRI...WITH YET ANOTHER SET OF NW
SWELL OF UP TO 15 FT ARRIVING BEHIND IT FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CONVECTION IS BEHIND ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 120W MAINLY
DUE TO TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE SE
SIDE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE S BAJA
PENINSULA ALL THE WAY TO JUST SE OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. A
PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM
13N130W TO 08N132.5W AND FROM 18N136W TO 08N139W RESPECTIVELY...
AS CAPTURED BY A 0304 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS AND A 0620 UTC ASCAT
PASS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR 10N106W TO 05N107W IS
WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS DEEP SW SHEAR ALOFT AND DRY AIR JUST
TO THE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS AS INDICATED BY UPPER LEVEL
SATELLITE WIND DATA AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
GAP WINDS...
A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ADJACENT
AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE S GULF OF
MEXICO YESTERDAY WEAKENS AND RESULTANT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC EASES. NE TO E WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT
RANGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS SAME AREA THROUGH THU THEN WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO.
TO THE SOUTHEAST...GRADIENT FLOW ALONG WITH DRAINAGE EFFECTS WILL
ALLOW FOR 20 TO 25 KT NE TO E WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
THROUGH FRIDAY.
$$
LEWITSKY
000
ACPN50 PHFO 180755
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST TUE NOV 17 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
$$
KINEL
000
AXNT20 KNHC 180548
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 18 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
FROM 10N16W AT THE AFRICA COAST TO 6N30W TO 7N46W 7N25W 5N35W
7N44W...INTO SURNAME WAS NEAR 4N53W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 3N TO 15N BETWEEN 18W AND 47W. A SURFACE
TROUGH RUNS ALONG 51W/52W FROM NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4N TO
10N ALONG 51W/52W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE-SCALE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE U.S.A. MIDWEST TO THE NORTH OF 30N...THANKS TO AN
EASTERN MISSOURI CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THAT IS ON TOP OF A 1010 LOW PRESSURE CENTER. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN MISSOURI CYCLONIC CENTER
TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS. A COLD FRONT THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE
WHOLE CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH FEATURE PASSES THROUGH THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 27N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 23N87W...
CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO
MEXICO BETWEEN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GUATEMALA. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE 1009 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF IDA THAT IS NEAR
27N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS PART OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH 22N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 17N65W
IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
17N TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. MOST OF ALL THE ISOLATED AND
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS THAT WERE IN THE AREA FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN 60W AND 63W HAVE DISSIPATED...EXCEPT FOR THE STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 61W.
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
FROM THE 1009 MB REMNANT OF IDA PASSES THROUGH 22N67W TO THE
EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL FOR GUADELOUPE ENDING AT 18/0000 UTC WAS
0.76 OF AN INCH...MOST PROBABLY WITH THE RAIN FROM THE
SURFACE-TO-UPPER LEVEL WEATHER FEATURES THAT ARE RELATED TO
THE REMNANT OF IDA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N...CURVING NORTHWARD
FROM THE NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH AMERICA.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO 22N64W TO 17N65W IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMNANT OF IDA HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWLY BUT SURELY
AND NOW IS NEAR 27N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM THE REMNANT
LOW CENTER OF IDA TO 22N67W TO THE EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 49W AND 63W.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N15W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 23N18W TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO 11N37W.
$$
MT
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 180542
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
100 AM EST MIERCOLES 18 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BERG
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABNT20 KNHC 180531
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST WED NOV 18 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 180531
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST TUE NOV 17 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BERG
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180313
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED NOV 18 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 6N78W 7N100W 6N110W 10N125W 7N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM
120W-124W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM
N OF AXIS FROM 132W-140W.
...DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N134W TO
26N140W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING A LARGE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA N OF 15N BETWEEN 105W-130W. AN 80-95 KT JETSTREAM THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 23N140W TO 25N120W THEN
ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. THE JET
IS ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ NE TO 21N W OF
130W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE DEEP TROPICS IS
CENTERED NEAR 9N113W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY
STABLE AIR AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS IS WITHIN 300 NM E OF
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 132W.
STRONG HIGH PRES MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
THE GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH EARLY WED AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE FAR NW PORTION
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N132W TO 28N140W. OVERCAST LOW TOP
CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A
SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SE OF THE FRONT. THE HIGH IS
PRODUCING STRONG ENOUGH GRADIENT FOR WINDS TO REACH 20 TO 25 KT
FROM 8N TO 22N W OF 120W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS COVER THE AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 118W-130W.
A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. ONE
FROM 11N104W TO 4N103W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH EARLIER HAS DISSIPATED. ANOTHER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N128W TO 7N128W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS.
$$
DGS
000
ACPN50 PHFO 180200
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST TUE NOV 17 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
$$
CRAIG
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