000
ABPZ20 KNHC 082334
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
WTUS82 KTAE 082314
HLSTAE
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IDA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
614 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
...CENTER OF IDA MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
OTHER NON-ROUTINE PRODUCTS
THERE IS A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST (6 PM CST)
AND A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR GULF AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES.
THERE IS A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR WAKULLA COUNTY.
PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 4 PM EST...OR 3 PM CST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST...OR ABOUT
95 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THIS IS ABOUT
550 MILES SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY FL...OR ABOUT 580 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE FL. IDA WAS MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST
NEAR 10 MPH. THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 100 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
HURRICANE IDA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
ON MONDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WILL BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IDA STARTS TO TURN MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE
PANHANDLE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IDA DRAWS CLOSER. THE
WORST WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH ROUGH SEAS
AND HIGH WINDS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE
FORECAST VALUES FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD
BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST DAMAGING WINDS SOMEWHERE WITHIN
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED. FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS
RECOMMENDED THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING
TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU
LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS
TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM
INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION... PLEASE
REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS
FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AROUND 8 PM EST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
GMZ750-770-090445-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
614 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST...AND
NOW EXTENDS FROM MEXICO BEACH WESTWARD. ALTHOUGH IDA IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AND BECOME NON TROPICAL AS IT NEARS THE FLORIDA COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST
AND THE PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.
&&
...MARINE...
WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LEVELS LATER TONIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
PANHANDLE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE STORM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ASHORE. SEAS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...PEAK SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25
FEET...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IDA MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR STRONG
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO HURRICANE
FORCE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
$$
FLZ008-012-090445-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.A.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WALTON-BAY-
514 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO
COAST...AND NOW EXTENDS FROM MEXICO BEACH WESTWARD. ALTHOUGH IDA
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME NON TROPICAL AS IT NEARS THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST
AND THE PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
AT THIS TIME...STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING HIGH TIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. SURF WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...PEAK MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE HEIGHTS IN THE RANGE OF 9 TO 12 FEET
AND OCCASIONALLY HIGHER AT SELECT SPOTS ALONG THE COAST. LARGE
SURF WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLE ROAD
CLOSURES ALONG THE VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
...INLAND FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES ARE
LIKELY...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON WHERE AND IF INDIVIDUAL HEAVY RAIN BANDS SET
UP...MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IDA PASSES NEARBY...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS SHOULD NOT INCREASE. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME
POSSIBILITY FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SINCE THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY...CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST MINOR DAMAGE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE AREA...MAINLY TO SMALL
TREES AND POWER LINES. UNSECURED OUTDOOR ITEMS LIKE PATIO
FURNITURE AND GARBAGE CANS MAY GET BLOWN AROUND IN THE STRONGER
WIND GUSTS.
&&
$$
BLOCK
000
WTUS82 KTAE 082307
HLSTAE
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IDA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
603 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
...CENTER OF IDA MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
OTHER NON-ROUTINE PRODUCTS
THERE IS A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST (6 PM CST)
AND A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR GULF AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES.
THERE IS A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR WAKULLA COUNTY.
PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 4 PM EST...OR 3 PM CST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST...OR ABOUT
95 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THIS IS ABOUT
550 MILES SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY FL...OR ABOUT 580 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE FL. IDA WAS MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST
NEAR 10 MPH. THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 100 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
HURRICANE IDA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
ON MONDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WILL BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IDA STARTS TO TURN MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE
PANHANDLE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IDA DRAWS CLOSER. THE
WORST WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH ROUGH SEAS
AND HIGH WINDS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE
FORECAST VALUES FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD
BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST DAMAGING WINDS SOMEWHERE WITHIN
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED. FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS
RECOMMENDED THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING
TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU
LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS
TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM
INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION... PLEASE
REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS
FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AROUND 8 PM EST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
GMZ750-770-090500-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
603 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST...AND
NOW EXTENDS FROM MEXICO BEACH WESTWARD. ALTHOUGH IDA IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AND BECOME NON TROPICAL AS IT NEARS THE FLORIDA COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST
AND THE PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.
&&
...MARINE...
WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LEVELS LATER TONIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
PANHANDLE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE STORM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ASHORE. SEAS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...PEAK SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25
FEET...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IDA MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR STRONG
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO HURRICANE
FORCE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
$$
FLZ008-012-090500-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.A.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WALTON-BAY-
503 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO
COAST...AND NOW EXTENDS FROM MEXICO BEACH WESTWARD. ALTHOUGH IDA
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME NON TROPICAL AS IT NEARS THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST
AND THE PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
AT THIS TIME...STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING HIGH TIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. SURF WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...PEAK MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE HEIGHTS IN THE RANGE OF 9 TO 12 FEET
AND OCCASIONALLY HIGHER AT SELECT SPOTS ALONG THE COAST. LARGE
SURF WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLE ROAD
CLOSURES ALONG THE VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
...INLAND FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES ARE
LIKELY...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON WHERE AND IF INDIVIDUAL HEAVY RAIN BANDS SET
UP...MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IDA PASSES NEARBY...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS SHOULD NOT INCREASE. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME
POSSIBILITY FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SINCE THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY...CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST MINOR DAMAGE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE AREA...MAINLY TO SMALL
TREES AND POWER LINES. UNSECURED OUTDOOR ITEMS LIKE PATIO
FURNITURE AND GARBAGE CANS MAY GET BLOWN AROUND IN THE STRONGER
WIND GUSTS.
&&
$$
BLOCK
000
WTUS82 KTAE 082303
HLSTAE
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IDA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
603 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
...CENTER OF IDA MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
OTHER NON-ROUTINE PRODUCTS
THERE IS A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT BUNTIL 7 PM EST (6 PM CST)
AND A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR GULF AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES.
THERE IS A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 4 PM EST...OR 3 PM CST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST...OR ABOUT
95 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THIS IS ABOUT
550 MILES SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY FL...OR ABOUT 580 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE FL. IDA WAS MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST
NEAR 10 MPH. THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 100 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
HURRICANE IDA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
ON MONDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WILL BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IDA STARTS TO TURN MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE
PANHANDLE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IDA DRAWS CLOSER. THE
WORST WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH ROUGH SEAS
AND HIGH WINDS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE
FORECAST VALUES FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD
BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST DAMAGING WINDS SOMEWHERE WITHIN
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED. FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS
RECOMMENDED THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING
TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU
LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS
TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM
INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION... PLEASE
REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS
FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AROUND 8 PM EST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
GMZ750-770-090500-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
603 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST...AND
NOW EXTENDS FROM MEXICO BEACH WESTWARD. ALTHOUGH IDA IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AND BECOME NON TROPICAL AS IT NEARS THE FLORIDA COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST
AND THE PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.
&&
...MARINE...
WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LEVELS LATER TONIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
PANHANDLE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE STORM APPROACHES
AND MOVES ASHORE. SEAS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...PEAK SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25
FEET...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IDA MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR STRONG
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO HURRICANE
FORCE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
$$
FLZ008-012-090500-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.A.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WALTON-BAY-
503 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO
COAST...AND NOW EXTENDS FROM MEXICO BEACH WESTWARD. ALTHOUGH IDA
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME NON TROPICAL AS IT NEARS THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST
AND THE PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
AT THIS TIME...STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING HIGH TIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. SURF WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...PEAK MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE HEIGHTS IN THE RANGE OF 9 TO 12 FEET
AND OCCASIONALLY HIGHER AT SELECT SPOTS ALONG THE COAST. LARGE
SURF WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLE ROAD
CLOSURES ALONG THE VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
...INLAND FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES ARE
LIKELY...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON WHERE AND IF INDIVIDUAL HEAVY RAIN BANDS SET
UP...MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IDA PASSES NEARBY...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS SHOULD NOT INCREASE. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME
POSSIBILITY FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SINCE THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY...CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST MINOR DAMAGE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE AREA...MAINLY TO SMALL
TREES AND POWER LINES. UNSECURED OUTDOOR ITEMS LIKE PATIO
FURNITURE AND GARBAGE CANS MAY GET BLOWN AROUND IN THE STRONGER
WIND GUSTS.
&&
$$
BLOCK
000
WTUS84 KMOB 082214 CCA
HLSMOB
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...CORRECTED...
HURRICANE IDA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
413 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
...HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDED EAST OF MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA BORDER AS
IDA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE IN SELECT LOCATIONS OF INLAND...SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
A WATCH MEANS THE STATED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS FOR THE SPECIFIED AREAS.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 12 PM CST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST...OR ABOUT 100 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THIS IS ABOUT 630 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE AL.
IDA IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LIKELY BY TUESDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK....THE CENTER OF IDA SHOULD MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...AND BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY
TUESDAY.
IDA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING
EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IDA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS ON TUESDAY AS IT NEARS THE GULF COAST...BUT IT COULD
REACH THE COAST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. THE
MAIN THREATS FROM HURRICANE IDA WILL INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG
WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE ALONG THE COAST WITH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE INLAND AND STORM SURGE ALONG THE COAST. A GENERAL CONCERN
SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME DAMAGE...INCLUDING POWER
OUTAGES...FROM PASCAGOULA OVER TO DESTIN.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IN ORDER TO MAKE THE BEST DECISIONS...BE SURE YOU UNDERSTAND THE
TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE EVENTS.
FOR INLAND LOCATIONS...TROPICAL CYCLONE CONDITIONS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH WIND...BUT FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS AND PLACES PRONE TO
COASTAL FLOODING...THEY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH HIGH WIND AND STORM
SURGE. TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE COMPRISED OF HURRICANES...TROPICAL
STORMS... AND TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS. HURRICANES HAVE WINDS OF 74 MPH
OR HIGHER...WHICH EQUATES TO 64 KNOTS OR HIGHER. TROPICAL STORMS HAVE
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...WHICH EQUATES TO 34 TO 63 KNOTS. TROPICAL
DEPRESSIONS HAVE WINDS OF LESS THAN 39 MPH OR 33 KNOTS.
HEAVY RAIN...TORNADOES...AND WATERSPOUTS ACCOMPANY TROPICAL
CYCLONES.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MOBILE BY 530 PM CST. IT WILL PROVIDE IMPORTANT DETAILS
REGARDING THE EVOLVING TROPICAL CYCLONE THREATS AND THEIR POTENTIAL
IMPACTS ON OUR AREA.
MEDLIN / BEAMAN
ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-090330-
/O.NEW.KMOB.HU.A.1011.091108T2213Z-000000T0000Z/
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-
413 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED STATEMENT
WILL FOLLOW THIS AFTERNOON. IDA IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
LIKELY BY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK....THE CENTER OF IDA SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...AND BE NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BY TUESDAY.
&&
$$
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082158
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN NOV 08 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.
...TROPICAL LOWS...
.LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 13N89W ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB IS
STATIONARY OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF SAN SALVADOR. THE
CIRCULATION IS MOSTLY A SWIRL OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LACKING DEEP
CONVECTION BUT RAIN ACCUMULATIONS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
.LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 11N121W ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB AND IS
MOVING SLOWLY W. THE SURFACE LOW IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE AND THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCES INTERMITTENT CONVECTION
WHICH ATTEMPTS TO BAND.
.LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 11N110W ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB.
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FLARING WITHIN 60 NM OVER THE E
SEMICIRCLE.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 06N95W TO 11N110W TO
08N129W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 07N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W AND ALSO WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N107W TO 11N118W TO 09N125W
TO 11N137W.
...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF A LINE
FROM 00N132W TO 27N114W TO 00N107W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM
CONVECTION BETWEEN 114W AND 138W IS STREAMING NE UNDER THE RIDGE
WITH THE PLUME NOW NARROWING AND CROSSING THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BUT MOSTLY EVAPORATES BEFORE REACHING WESTERN MEXICO.
ITCZ CONVECTION IS ALSO ENHANCED BETWEEN 105W AND 112W BUT
REMAINS IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE SUBTROPICS TO THE NW OF THE
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED RIDGE...FROM 21N132W TO 14N140W. THE UPPER
FLOW HAS BECOME ZONAL ELSEWHERE IN THE SUBTROPICS. A PLUME OF
MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS STREAMING E OVER
THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 27N.
AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NEAR 32N103W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S
ALONG 20N99W TO TO A BASE NEAR 10N90W. A BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR
IS SWEEPING E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN
145W AND 120W...THEN THE DRY AIR TURNS SE THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH AND CONTINUES TO PUSH SE RIGHT INTO THE TROUGH BASE IN
DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC.
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N82W WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 08N87W. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
ENHANCED UNDER THE RIDGE OVER NW COLOMBIA AND ALSO OVER MOST OF
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOW SPREADING
SW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA NE OF A LINE FROM 01N80W TO 10N86W.
AT THE LOW LEVELS HIGH PRES IS CENTERED AT 32N134W 1022 MB WITH
A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 14N105W. N TO NE TO E WINDS ARE
GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH THE RIDGE. LARGE NW SWELLS ARE
SPREADING SE ACROSS THE AREA W OF 1052 THROUGH TUE.
GAP WINDS...
N WINDS AT 20 EXPECTED TO RESUME IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
EARLY MON AND INCREASE TO GALE FORCE TUE MORNING.
$$
NELSON
000
WTUS84 KLIX 082151
HLSLIX
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IDA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
351 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
...HURRICANE IDA MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE IDA IS A CATEGORY TWO STORM...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE IN SELECT LOCATIONS AND COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.
A HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS.
A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PART OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.
PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 300 PM CST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT 510 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
IDA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
AND BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IDA IS
A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND IDA IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON MONDAY.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
HURRICANE IDA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IDA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES
COASTAL SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. THE MAIN THREATS FROM HURRICANE IDA WILL INCLUDE
HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG WINDS...STORM SURGE ALONG THE COAST AND
TIDAL LAKES. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE
FORECAST VALUES FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD
BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR DAMAGE SOMEWHERE WITHIN
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN.
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF
NECESSARY. HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY
ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED. FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND
MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED
PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE
YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED
SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. REGARDING THE COASTAL
WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK
SAFE HARBOR. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL
NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND
PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS AROUND 7 PM CST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
GMZ550-555-570-575-092200-
/O.CON.KLIX.HU.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
351 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
..NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE IDA IS A CATEGORY TWO STORM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVE TOWARD ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.
&&
...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IDA MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR STRONG TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BEGIN
AFFECTING THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.
...SEAS...
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 20 TO 27 FEET MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
LAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS HURRICANE IDA MOVES THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS.
...WATERSPOUTS...
WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
$$
GMZ530-092200-
/O.CON.KLIX.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-
351 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
..NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE IDA IS A CATEGORY TWO STORM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVE TOWARD ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.
&&
...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IDA MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE MONDAY EVENING TO TUESDAY MORNING.
...WATERSPOUTS...
WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
$$
LAZ063-064-068>070-MSZ080>082-092200-
/O.CON.KLIX.HI.A.0001.000000T0000Z-091111T0000Z/
/O.CON.KLIX.HU.A.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
351 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
...HURRICANE WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
..NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE IDA IS A CATEGORY TWO STORM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVE TOWARD ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
STAY CALM AND KEEP INFORMED. COMPLY WITH ANY EVACUATION ORDERS
THAT ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA. IF YOUR HOME IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH
WINDS...OR YOU LIVE IN A SURGE ZONE OR ANY LOCATION PRONE TO
FLOODING...EVACUATE TO A DESIGNATED SHELTER OR RIDE OUT THE STORM
IN THE STURDY HOME OF FAMILY OR FRIENDS OUTSIDE OF EVACUATION
ZONES.
ITEMS TO BRING TO A SHELTER INCLUDE A FIRST AID KIT...MEDICINES
AND PRESCRIPTIONS... BABY FOOD AND DIAPERS...GAMES AND BOOKS...
TOILETRIES...A BATTERY POWERED RADIO...A CELL PHONE...FLASHLIGHTS
WITH EXTRA BATTERIES...A BLANKET OR SLEEPING BAG FOR EACH
PERSON...PERSONAL IDENTIFICATION...COPIES OF KEY PAPERS SUCH AS
INSURANCE POLICIES...AVAILABLE CASH AND CREDIT CARDS. REMEMBER...
PETS ARE NOT ALLOWED IN MOST PUBLIC SHELTERS...SO CHECK AHEAD
WITH YOUR INTENDED SHELTER.
REGARDING YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS...COVER ALL WINDOWS AND DOORS
WITH SHUTTERS OR PLYWOOD. MOVE PATIO FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE
OBJECTS INDOORS. BRACE ALL EXTERIOR DOORS...INCLUDING GARAGE
DOORS. DO THIS AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.
IF YOU NEED TO MAKE A TRIP TO THE HARDWARE STORE...THE GROCERY
STORE...OR THE GAS STATION...DO SO AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.
&&
...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IDA MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE FROM LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR TO MOBILE
HOMES. A FEW HOMES MAY RECEIVE MOSTLY MINOR DAMAGE TO ROOF
SHINGLES AND SIDING. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT ITEMS MAY BECOME
PROJECTILES...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE. SOME ELECTRICAL WIRES
WILL BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOCAL POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. MOST
NEWLY PLANTED TREES AND SHRUBS WILL BE DAMAGED OR UPROOTED. SOME
WEAKER SMALL TREES AND LARGE BRANCHES MAY SNAP.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE HURRICANE
PROTECTION LEVEES...AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MISSISSIPPI COAST FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FLOODING OF FEW FEET OF WATER MAY
OCCUR IN NON ELEVATED STRUCTURES OR THOSE BUILT ON A
SLABS...CAUSING DAMAGE. ROADS ALONG THE COAST...BAYOUS AND LOW
LYING AREAS MAY CLOSE WITH UPWARDS OF SEVERAL FEET OF WATER ON
THEM. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT
PROPERTY AND HEAD EVACUATION ADVICE FROM EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SEE LATEST
FORECAST FOR LATEST INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT IF FLOODING
RAINS OCCUR.
$$
LAZ038-040-058>062-065>067-MSZ077-092200-
/O.CON.KLIX.TI.A.0001.000000T0000Z-091111T0000Z/
TANGIPAHOA-ST. TAMMANY-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-PEARL RIVER-
351 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
...TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...
..NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE IDA IS A CATEGORY TWO STORM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVE TOWARD ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND.
STRONGLY CONSIDER EVACUATING IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...AND DO
SO IF ORDERED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS.
&&
...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IDA MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON TO TUESDAY MORNING.
MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR IN MOBILE HOME PARKS. NEWLY PLANTED TREES
AND SHRUBS MAY BE UPROOTED IF NOT SECURED PROPERLY. WEAK TREE
BRANCHES MAY SNAP. RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE UNFASTENED ITEMS...SUCH
AS GARBAGE CANS AND DECK FURNITURE...INDOORS.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
MINOR STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES AND IN AREAS AROUND LAKES
PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME NON ELEVATED HOMES IN THESE AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE
FLOODING. MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING OF PROPERTY AND
PERHAPS SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADS MAY OCCUR DURING HIGH
TIDE.
...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SEE LATEST
FORECAST FOR LATEST INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT IF FLOODING
RAINS OCCUR.
$$
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 082137
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 25W ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP252009
800 AM CHST MON NOV 9 2009
...TROPICAL STORM 25W MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...TROPICAL STORM 25W WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 159.6 DEGREES EAST. THIS
IS ABOUT 500 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND.
TROPICAL STORM 25W IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 2 MPH. AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM 25W IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...LATITUDE 21.9 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 159.6 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 2 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
$$
SIMPSON
000
WTCA41 TJSJ 082126
TCPSP1
BOLETIN
HURACAN IDA ADVERTENCIA ESPECIAL NUMERO 20
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL13009
300 PM CST DOMINGO 8 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
...EL CENTRO DE AIDA MOVIENDOSE SOBRE LA PARTE SUR DEL GOLFO DE
MEXICO...
UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGUE EN EFECTO PARA EL NORTE DE LA COSTA
DEL GOLFO DESDE GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA HASTA MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA.
ESTA VIGILANCIA NO INCLUYE LA CIUDAD DE NEW ORLEANS. UNA VIGILANCIA
DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL
AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS.
AVISO DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN EN
MEXICO DESDE PLAYA DEL CARMEN HASTA CABO CATOCHE. UN AVISO DE
HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA
BAJO AVISO...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 24 HORAS. PREPARACION PARA
SALVAR VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBERAN COMPLETARSE EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO.
VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA PENINSULA DE
YUCATAN EN MEXICO DESDE TULUM A PLAYA DEL CARMEN. VIGILANCIA DE
HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL
AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA.
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA PENINSULA DEL
YUCATAN EN MEXICO DESDE PUNTA ALLEN HACIA EL NORTE HASTA PLAYA DEL
CARMEN. AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO...GENERALMENTE
DENTRO DE 24 HORAS.
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA PROVINCIA
CUBANA DE PINAR DEL RIO.
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA ISLA JUVENTUD.
INTERESES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO DEBEN MONITOREAR EL
PROGRESO DE IDA. VIGILANCIAS Y AVISIOS ADICIONALES PODRIAN SER
REQUERIDOS ESTA NOCHE O EL LUNES.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA EN LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS...
INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA. PARA
INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE SU AREA FUERA DE LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS...FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO
METEOROLOGICO.
A LAS 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN IDA ESTABA
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 86.3 OESTE O
CERCA DE 95 MILLAS...155 KM...AL OESTE NORESTE DE LA PUNTA
OCCIEDENTA DE LA ISLA DE CUBA Y ALREDEDOR DE 510 MILLAS 815 KM AL
SUR SURESTE DE LA DESEMBOCADURA DEL RIO MISSISSIPPI.
IDA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA AL NORTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 10 MPH...17
KM/HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE CON UN AUMENTO EN
LA VELOCIDAD DE TRANSLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 A 36 HORAS. EN
LA TRAYECTORIA PROYECTADA...SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE IDA SE MUEVA
A TRAVES DEL GOLF DE MEXICO ESTA NOCHE Y ESTARA CERCA DEL NORTE
DEL GOLFO EL LUNES.
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...CON
RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. IDA ES CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR
SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA POCOS CAMBIOS EN SU FUERZA ESTA NOCHE...Y SE
ESPERA QUE IDA SE DEBILITE EL LUNES.
LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 35 MILLAS...55
KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR EL CAZA HURANES ES DE 976
MB...28.82 PULGADAS.
SE ESPERA QUE IDA OCASIONE TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE
PORCIONES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL OESTE DE CUBA...CON
CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 10 PULGADAS.
LLUVIAS AUMENTARAN A MEDIDA QUE IDA SE ACERCA AL CENTRO Y ESTE DE LA
COSTA DEL GOLFO...TORNANDOSE MAS FUERTE DE LUNES A MARTES. TOTALES
DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES CON TOTALES AISLADOS DE
HASTA 8 PULGADAS POSIBLES HASTA EL MARTES DESDE EL CENTRO Y ESTE DEL
GOLFO HACIA EL NORTE ENTRANDO A PORCIONES DEL VALLE DE TENNESSEE Y
LAS MONTANAS APPALACHIANS DEL SUR.
MAREJADAS CICLONICAS PUEDEN AUMENTAR LOS NIVELES DE AGUA DE
3 A 4 PIES SOBRE EL NIVEL DE LA COSTA DE LA PENINSULA DEL YUCATAN.
CERCA DE LA COSTA LA MAREA CICLONICA SE ACOMPANARA CON GRANDES Y
DESTRUCTIVAS OLAS ROMPIENTES.
...RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 300 PM CST...
LOCALIZACION...22.2 NORTE 86.3 OESTE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...100 MPH
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOROESTE O 330 GRADOS A 10 MPH
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...976 MILIBARAS
LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO
NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 600 PM CST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA
COMPLETA A LAS 900 PM CST.
$$
PRONOSTICADORES BEVEN/ROBERTS
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
WTNT31 KNHC 082048
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
300 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009
...CENTER OF IDA MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM
GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA. THIS WATCH DOES NOT
INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN AND FROM
CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR MONDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...
155 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND ABOUT
510 MILES...815 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
IDA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
AND BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND IDA IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
RAINS WILL BE INCREASING WELL IN ADVANCE OF IDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF COAST...BUT WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER BY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD
INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.
A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
...SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...22.2N 86.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 600 PM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900
PM CST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS
000
WTNT21 KNHC 082039
TCMAT1
HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
2100 UTC SUN NOV 08 2009
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM
GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA. THIS WATCH DOES NOT
INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN AND FROM
CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR MONDAY.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 86.3W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 45SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 86.3W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 86.1W
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.9N 87.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.7N 88.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 75SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 29.2N 87.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 115NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 30.7N 86.7W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...125NE 150SE 90SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 31.0N 83.0W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 75SE 75SW 45NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 30.0N 79.5W...EXTRATROPICAL OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 86.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
WTUS82 KTAE 082020
HLSTAE
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IDA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
320 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
...HURRICANE IDA EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.
PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 12 PM CST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST...OR ABOUT 100 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THIS IS ABOUT 580 MILES SOUTH
OF PANAMA CITY FL. IDA WAS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. THE
HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
HURRICANE IDA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
ON MONDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WILL BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IDA STARTS TO TURN MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE
PANHANDLE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IDA DRAWS CLOSER. THE
WORST WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH ROUGH SEAS
AND HIGH WINDS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE
FORECAST VALUES FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD
BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST DAMAGING WINDS SOMEWHERE WITHIN
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED. FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS
RECOMMENDED THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING
TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU
LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS
TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM
INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION... PLEASE
REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS
FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AROUND 5 PM CDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
GMZ750-770-092030-
/O.NEW.KTAE.HU.A.0001.091108T2020Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
320 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF OF
MEXICO COAST...AND NOW EXTENDS FROM MEXICO BEACH WESTWARD.
ALTHOUGH IDA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME NON TROPICAL AS IT
NEARS THE FLORIDA COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THERE IS STILL
A POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST AND THE PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.
&&
...MARINE...
IN ADDITION TO STRONG GUSTY WINDS...UNUSUALLY LARGE
WAVES ARE LIKELY. SEAS MAY REACH 20 FEET OR MORE MONDAY NIGHT.
...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IDA MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR STRONG
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO HURRICANE
FORCE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
$$
FLZ008-012-092030-
/O.NEW.KTAE.HU.A.1011.091108T2020Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WALTON-BAY-
220 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF OF
MEXICO COAST...AND NOW EXTENDS FROM MEXICO BEACH WESTWARD.
ALTHOUGH IDA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME NON TROPICAL AS IT
NEARS THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE COAST AND THE PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
AT THIS TIME...STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING HIGH TIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS...COMBINED WITH HIGH SURF UP TO 10 FEET...COULD
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND POSSIBLE ROAD CLOSURES.
...INLAND FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES ARE
LIKELY...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON WHERE AND IF INDIVIDUAL HEAVY RAIN BANDS SET
UP...MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IDA PASSES NEARBY...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS SHOULD NOT INCREASE. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME
POSSIBILITY FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SINCE THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY...CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST MINOR DAMAGE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE AREA...MAINLY TO SMALL
TREES AND POWER LINES. UNSECURED OUTDOOR ITEMS LIKE PATIO
FURNITURE AND GARBAGE CANS MAY GET BLOWN AROUND IN THE STRONGER
WIND GUSTS.
$$
FOURNIER
000
ACPN50 PHFO 082000
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SUN NOV 8 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
$$
MORRISON
000
WTUS84 KLIX 081901
HLSLIX
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IDA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
101 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
...HURRICANE IDA STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY TWO STORM...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE IN SELECT LOCATIONS AND COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.
A HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS.
A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PART OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.
PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1200 PM CST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES WEST OF THE WESTERN
TIP OF CUBA.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
HURRICANE IDA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. IDA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES COASTAL SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
MAIN THREATS FROM HURRICANE IDA WILL INCLUDE HEAVY
RAINFALL...STRONG WINDS... STORM SURGE ALONG THE COAST AND TIDAL
LAKES. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE FORECAST
VALUES FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME DAMAGE SOMEWHERE WITHIN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN.
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF
NECESSARY. HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY
ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED. FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND
MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED
PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE
YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED
SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. REGARDING THE COASTAL
WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK
SAFE HARBOR. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL
NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND
PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED
RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS AROUND 4 PM CST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
GMZ550-555-570-575-091915-
/O.CON.KLIX.HU.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
101 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
..NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE IDA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS AND THEN
MOVE TOWARD ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.
&&
...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IDA MOVES CLOSER...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO TUESDAY MORNING.
...SEAS...
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 20 TO 30 FEET MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
LAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS HURRICANE IDA MOVES THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS.
...WATERSPOUTS...
WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
$$
GMZ530-091915-
/O.CON.KLIX.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-
101 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
..NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE IDA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS AND THEN
MOVE TOWARD ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.
&&
...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IDA MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE MONDAY EVENING TO EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
...WATERSPOUTS...
WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
$$
LAZ063-064-068>070-MSZ080>082-091915-
/O.CON.KLIX.HI.A.0001.000000T0000Z-091111T0000Z/
/O.CON.KLIX.HU.A.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
101 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
...HURRICANE WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
..NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE IDA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS AND THEN
MOVE TOWARD ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
STAY CALM AND KEEP INFORMED. COMPLY WITH ANY EVACUATION ORDERS
THAT ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA. IF YOUR HOME IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH
WINDS...OR YOU LIVE IN A SURGE ZONE OR ANY LOCATION PRONE TO
FLOODING...EVACUATE TO A DESIGNATED SHELTER OR RIDE OUT THE STORM
IN THE STURDY HOME OF FAMILY OR FRIENDS OUTSIDE OF EVACUATION
ZONES.
ITEMS TO BRING TO A SHELTER INCLUDE A FIRST AID KIT...MEDICINES
AND PRESCRIPTIONS... BABY FOOD AND DIAPERS...GAMES AND BOOKS...
TOILETRIES...A BATTERY POWERED RADIO...A CELL PHONE...FLASHLIGHTS
WITH EXTRA BATTERIES...A BLANKET OR SLEEPING BAG FOR EACH
PERSON...PERSONAL IDENTIFICATION...COPIES OF KEY PAPERS SUCH AS
INSURANCE POLICIES...AVAILABLE CASH AND CREDIT CARDS. REMEMBER...
PETS ARE NOT ALLOWED IN MOST PUBLIC SHELTERS...SO CHECK AHEAD
WITH YOUR INTENDED SHELTER.
REGARDING YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS...COVER ALL WINDOWS AND DOORS
WITH SHUTTERS OR PLYWOOD. MOVE PATIO FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE
OBJECTS INDOORS. BRACE ALL EXTERIOR DOORS...INCLUDING GARAGE
DOORS. DO THIS AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.
IF YOU NEED TO MAKE A TRIP TO THE HARDWARE STORE...THE GROCERY
STORE...OR THE GAS STATION...DO SO AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.
&&
...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IDA MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR STRONG
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINOR DAMAGE WILL
OCCUR TO MANY MOBILE HOMES. A FEW HOMES MAY RECEIVE MOSTLY MINOR
DAMAGE TO ROOF SHINGLES AND SIDING. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT ITEMS
MAY BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE. SOME
ELECTRICAL WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOCAL POWER OUTAGES ARE
LIKELY. MOST NEWLY PLANTED TREES AND SHRUBS WILL BE DAMAGED OR
UPROOTED. SOME WEAKER SMALL TREES AND LARGE BRANCHES MAY SNAP.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE HURRICANE
PROTECTION LEVEES...AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MISSISSIPPI COAST FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FLOODING OF FEW FEET OF WATER MAY
OCCUR IN NON ELEVATED STRUCTURES OR THOSE BUILT ON A
SLABS...CAUSING DAMAGE. ROADS ALONG THE COAST...BAYOUS AND LOW
LYING AREAS MAY CLOSE WITH UPWARDS OF SEVERAL FEET OF WATER ON
THEM. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT
PROPERTY AND HEAD EVACUATION ADVICE FROM EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SEE LATEST
FORECAST FOR LATEST INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT IF FLOODING
RAINS OCCUR.
$$
LAZ038-040-058>062-065>067-MSZ077-091915-
/O.CON.KLIX.TI.A.0001.000000T0000Z-091111T0000Z/
TANGIPAHOA-ST. TAMMANY-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-PEARL RIVER-
101 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
...TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...
..NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE IDA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS AND THEN
MOVE TOWARD ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND.
STRONGLY CONSIDER EVACUATING IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...AND DO
SO IF ORDERED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS.
&&
...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IDA MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON TO TUESDAY MORNING.
MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR IN OLDER MOBILE HOME PARKS. NEWLY PLANTED
TREES AND SHRUBS MAY BE UPROOTED IF NOT SECURED PROPERLY. WEAK
TREE BRANCHES MAY SNAP. RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE UNFASTENED
ITEMS...SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND DECK FURNITURE...INDOORS.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
MINOR STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES AND IN AREAS AROUND LAKES
PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME NON ELEVATED HOMES IN THESE AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE
FLOODING. MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING OF PROPERTY AND
PERHAPS SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADS MAY OCCUR DURING HIGH
TIDE.
...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SEE LATEST
FORECAST FOR LATEST INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT IF FLOODING
RAINS OCCUR.
$$
000
WTUS84 KMOB 081850 CCA
HLSMOB
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...CORRECTED...
HURRICANE IDA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1249 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
...HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDED EAST OF MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA BORDER AS
IDA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE IN SELECT LOCATIONS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
A WATCH MEANS THE STATED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS FOR THE SPECIFIED AREAS.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 12 PM CST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST...OR ABOUT 100 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THIS IS ABOUT 630 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE AL.
IDA IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LIKELY BY TUESDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK....THE CENTER OF IDA SHOULD MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...AND BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY
TUESDAY.
IDA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING
EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IDA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS ON TUESDAY AS IT NEARS THE GULF COAST...BUT IT COULD
REACH THE COAST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. THE
MAIN THREATS FROM HURRICANE IDA WILL INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG
WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE ALONG THE COAST WITH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE INLAND AND STORM SURGE ALONG THE COAST. A GENERAL CONCERN
SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME DAMAGE...INCLUDING POWER
OUTAGES...FROM PASCAGOULA OVER TO DESTIN.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IN ORDER TO MAKE THE BEST DECISIONS...BE SURE YOU UNDERSTAND THE
TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE EVENTS.
FOR INLAND LOCATIONS...TROPICAL CYCLONE CONDITIONS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH WIND...BUT FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS AND PLACES PRONE TO
COASTAL FLOODING...THEY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH HIGH WIND AND STORM
SURGE. TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE COMPRISED OF HURRICANES...TROPICAL
STORMS... AND TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS. HURRICANES HAVE WINDS OF 74 MPH
OR HIGHER...WHICH EQUATES TO 64 KNOTS OR HIGHER. TROPICAL STORMS HAVE
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...WHICH EQUATES TO 34 TO 63 KNOTS. TROPICAL
DEPRESSIONS HAVE WINDS OF LESS THAN 39 MPH OR 33 KNOTS.
HEAVY RAIN...TORNADOES...AND WATERSPOUTS ACCOMPANY TROPICAL
CYCLONES.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MOBILE BY 530 PM CST. IT WILL PROVIDE IMPORTANT DETAILS
REGARDING THE EVOLVING TROPICAL CYCLONE THREATS AND THEIR POTENTIAL
IMPACTS ON OUR AREA.
MEDLIN / BEAMAN
ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-090000-
/O.NEW.KMOB.HU.A.1011.091108T1842Z-000000T0000Z/
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-
1242 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED STATEMENT
WILL FOLLOW THIS AFTERNOON. IDA IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
LIKELY BY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK....THE CENTER OF IDA SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...AND BE NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BY TUESDAY.
&&
$$
000
WTUS84 KMOB 081842
HLSMOB
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IDA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1242 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
...HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDED EAST OF MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA BORDER AS
IDA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE IN SELECT LOCATIONS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.
A WATCH MEANS THE STATED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS FOR THE SPECIFIED AREAS.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 12 PM CST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST...OR ABOUT 100 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THIS IS ABOUT 630 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE AL.
IDA IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LIKELY BY TUESDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK....THE CENTER OF IDA SHOULD MOVE INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...AND BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY
TUESDAY.
IDA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING
EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IDA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS ON TUESDAY AS IT NEARS THE GULF COAST...BUT IT COULD
REACH THE COAST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. THE
MAIN THREATS FROM HURRICANE IDA WILL INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG
WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE ALONG THE COAST WITH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE INLAND AND STORM SURGE ALONG THE COAST. A GENERAL CONCERN
SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME DAMAGE...INCLUDING POWER
OUTAGES...FROM PASCAGOULA OVER TO DESTIN.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IN ORDER TO MAKE THE BEST DECISIONS...BE SURE YOU UNDERSTAND THE
TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE EVENTS.
FOR INLAND LOCATIONS...TROPICAL CYCLONE CONDITIONS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH WIND...BUT FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS AND PLACES PRONE TO
COASTAL FLOODING...THEY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH HIGH WIND AND STORM
SURGE. TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE COMPRISED OF HURRICANES...TROPICAL
STORMS... AND TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS. HURRICANES HAVE WINDS OF 74 MPH
OR HIGHER...WHICH EQUATES TO 64 KNOTS OR HIGHER. TROPICAL STORMS HAVE
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...WHICH EQUATES TO 34 TO 63 KNOTS. TROPICAL
DEPRESSIONS HAVE WINDS OF LESS THAN 39 MPH OR 33 KNOTS.
HEAVY RAIN...TORNADOES...AND WATERSPOUTS ACCOMPANY TROPICAL
CYCLONES.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MOBILE BY 530 PM CST. IT WILL PROVIDE IMPORTANT DETAILS
REGARDING THE EVOLVING TROPICAL CYCLONE THREATS AND THEIR POTENTIAL
IMPACTS ON OUR AREA.
MEDLIN / BEAMAN
ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-090000-
/O.NEW.KMOB.HU.A.1011.091108T1842Z-000000T0000Z/
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-
1242 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED STATEMENT
WILL FOLLOW THIS AFTERNOON. IDA IS MOVING NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
LIKELY BY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK....THE CENTER OF IDA SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...AND BE NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BY TUESDAY.
&&
$$
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 081826
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
100 PM EST DOMINGO 8 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS PARA EL
HURACAN IDA...LOCALIZADO A 100 MILLAS AL NORTE-NORESTE DE
COZUMEL MEXICO.
EN EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN
LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS/BEVEN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
WTCA41 TJSJ 081824
TCPSP1
BOLETIN
HURACAN IDA ADVERTENCIA ESPECIAL NUMERO 19
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL112009
1200 PM CST DOMINGO 8 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
...LA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN HA SIDO EXTENDIDA A LO LARGO DEL NORTE
DE LA COSTA DEL GOLFO...IDA SE FORTALECE UN POCO...
A LAS 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN FUE EMITIDA
AL ESTE DE LA FRONTERA DE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA A MEXICO BEACH
FLORIDA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN ESTA AHORA EN EFECTO DESDE GRAND
ISLE LOUISIANA A MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA. ESTA VIGILANCIA NO INCLUYE LA
CIUDAD DE NEW ORLEANS. VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE
CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO
VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS.
AVISO DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN EN
MEXICO DESDE PLAYA DEL CARMEN HASTA CABO CATOCHE. AVISO DE HURACAN
SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO
AVISO...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 24 HORAS. PREPARACION PARA SALVAR
VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBERAN COMPLETARSE EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO.
VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA PENINSULA DE
YUCATAN EN MEXICO DESDE TULUM A PLAYA DEL CARMEN. VIGILANCIA DE
HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL
AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA.
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA PENINSULA DEL
YUCATAN EN MEXICO DESDE PUNTA ALLEN HACIA EL NORTE HASTA PLAYA DEL
CARMEN Y DE CABO CATOCHE AL OESTE A SAN FELIPE. AVISO DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES
EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 24 HORAS.
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA PROVINCIA
CUBANA DE PINAR DEL RIO.
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA ISLA JUVENTUD.
INTERESES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO DEBEN MONITOREAR EL
PROGRESO DE IDA. VIGILANCIAS Y AVISIOS ADICIONALES PODRIAN SER
REQUERIDOS TARDE HOY.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA EN LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR MONITOREAR
LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE SU AREA FUERA DE LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS...FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO
METEOROLOGICO.
A LAS 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN IDA ESTABA
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 86.1 OESTE O
CERCA DE 100 MILLAS...155 KM...AL NORTE-NORESTE DE CONZUMEL MEXICO Y
A 75 MILLAS...125 KM...AL OESTE DE LA ESQUINA OESTE DE CUBA.
IDA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA AL NOROESTE CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KM/HORA.
SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE CON UN AUMENTO EN LA
VELOCIDAD DE TRANSLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...UN GIRO
GRADUAL AL NORTE ES POSIBLE EL MARTES. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PROYECTADA...SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE IDA SE MUEVA A TRAVES DEL
CANAL DEL YUCATAN HOY...Y CERCA DEL NORTE DEL GOLFO EL MARTES.
REPORTES DEL CAZA HURACANES INDICA VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS DE 100
MPH...160 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. IDA ES CATEGORIA DOS EN
LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO
ADICIONAL HOY...Y UN DEBILITAMIENTO GRADUAL EL LUNES. SE ESPERA QUE
IDA PIERDA CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES EL MARTES MIENTRAS SE VA
ACERCANDO A LA COSTA DEL GOLFO...PERO PUEDE LLEGAR A LA COSTA COMO
CICLON TROPICAL.
LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 15 MILLAS...30
KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR EL CAZA HURANES ES DE 978
MB...28.88 PULGADAS.
SE ESPERA QUE IDA OCASIONE TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE
PORCIONES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL OESTE DE CUBA...CON
CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 10 PULGADAS.
LLUVIAS AUMENTARAN A MEDIDA QUE IDA SE ACERCA AL CENTRO Y ESTE DE LA
COSTA DEL GOLFO...TORNANDOSE MAS FUERTE DE LUNES A MARTES. TOTALES
DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES CON TOTALES AISLADOS DE
HASTA 8 PULGADAS.
MAREJADAS CICLONICAS PUEDEN AUMENTAR LOS NIVELES DE AGUA DE
3 A 4 PIES SOBRE EL NIVEL DE LA COSTA DE LA PENINSULA DEL
YUCATAN...CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES CERCANAS A LA
COSTA.
...RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 12:00 PM CST...
LOCALIZACION...21.7 NORTE 86.1 OESTE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...100 MPH
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOROESTE O 325 GRADOS A 10 MPH
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...978 MILIBARAS
LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO
NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1200 PM CST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA
COMPLETA A LAS 3:00 PM CST.
$$
PRONOSTICADORES BEVEN/ROBERTS
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081818
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
000
ABNT20 KNHC 081818
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IDA...LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
000
WTNT31 KNHC 081758
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IDA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1200 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009
...HURRICANE WATCH EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...IDA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...
AT 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA. A
HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA. THIS WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN AND FROM
CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...
155 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES...
125 KM...WEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
LIKELY BY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK....THE CENTER OF IDA
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...AND BE NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BY TUESDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...
160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IDA IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON TUESDAY AS IT
NEARS THE GULF COAST...BUT IT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
RAINS WILL BE INCREASING WELL IN ADVANCE OF IDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF COAST...BUT WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER BY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD
INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.
A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
...SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...21.7N 86.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1200 PM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300
PM CST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS
000
WTNT21 KNHC 081757
TCMAT1
HURRICANE IDA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1800 UTC SUN NOV 08 2009
AT 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA. A
HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA. THIS WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN AND FROM
CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 86.1W AT 08/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 86.1W AT 08/1800Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 85.8W
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.8N 87.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...135NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.6N 88.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 28.2N 88.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 90SW 115NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 30.0N 87.8W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 90SW 115NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 30.5N 84.5W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 75SE 75SW 45NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 30.0N 81.0W...EXTRATROPICAL OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 86.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
AXNT20 KNHC 081737
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN NOV 08 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 21.2N 86.0W AT 08/1500 UTC OR
ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT
80 MILES...125 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MOVING NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. A
HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE ENTIRE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 20N-23N
BETWEEN 84W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 81W-88W...
AND FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 78W-83W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
HAS MOVED W OF THE BROAD AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BUT SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE LOW LEVEL
CURVATURE ON THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD LOW
LEVEL CURVATURE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N25W 9N50W 8N60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 13W-17W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 25W-34W...AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 37W-43W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 34W-43W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER TENNESSEE NEAR
36N83W. A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 21N94W.
HURRICANE IDA IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. GALE FORCE WINDS OR
HIGHER ARE OVER THE SE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 25N
E OF 85W. 20-25 KT E SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO N OF 25N E OF 93W. ELSEWHERE...THE NW GULF ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST HAS ONLY 10-15 KT E WINDS. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS WITH CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE GULF DUE TO IDA. MORE
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W GULF W
OF 90W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF
88W AND OVER N FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 23N95W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE N OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER THE NW
GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF
90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 23N AND
W OF 90W. EXPECT...HURRICANE IDA TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF IN 24 HOURS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
IDA IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. SEE
ABOVE. TRADEWINDS ARE BASICALLY 10-15 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 75W-82W. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER EL SALVADOR...W HONDURAS...AND
E GUATEMALA DUE TO A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF EL
SALVADOR AT 13N89W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N79W. ANTICYCLONIC UPPER
LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW
FROM IDA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED OVER THE S
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 36N67W. A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N45W TO 28N50W 23N60W
DISSIPATING TO 22N70W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 50W-60W. A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC E OF THE AZORES AT 38N22W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
RIDGE WITH NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W
OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-70W. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-55W. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 24N40W. OVER THE TROPICS AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR
12N20W.
$$
FORMOSA
000
WTUS84 KLIX 081651
HLSLIX
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IDA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1051 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
...HURRICANE IDA MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE IN SELECT LOCATIONS AND COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.
A HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS.
A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PART OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.
PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 9 AM CST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 75 MILES
NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THIS IS ABOUT 660 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LA...OR ABOUT 660 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GULFPORT MS. STORM MOTION WAS NORTHWEST AT 10
MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 90 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
HURRICANE IDA IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO STREGTHEN TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE WEAKENING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES COASTAL SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE MAIN THREATS FROM HURRICANE
IDA WILL INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG WINDS...STORM SURGE
ALONG THE COAST AND TIDAL LAKES. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT
WIND AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. A GENERAL
CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME DAMAGE SOMEWHERE
WITHIN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED. FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS
RECOMMENDED THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING
TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU
LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS
TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM
INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION... PLEASE
REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS
FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS AROUND 1 PM CST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
GMZ550-555-570-575-091700-
/O.CON.KLIX.HU.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1051 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
..NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE IDA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AND TOWARD THE ALABAMA
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.
&&
...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IDA MOVES CLOSER...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO TUESDAY MORNING.
...SEAS...
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 20 TO 30 FEET MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
LAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS HURRICANE IDA MOVES THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS.
...WATERSPOUTS...
WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
$$
GMZ530-091700-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TR.A.0001.091108T1651Z-000000T0000Z/
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-
1051 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...
..NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE IDA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.
&&
...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IDA MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE MONDAY EVENING TO EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
...WATERSPOUTS...
WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
$$
LAZ063-064-068>070-MSZ080>082-091700-
/O.NEW.KLIX.HI.A.0001.091108T1651Z-091111T0000Z/
/O.CON.KLIX.HU.A.1011.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1051 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
...HURRICANE WIND WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
..NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE IDA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
STAY CALM AND KEEP INFORMED. COMPLY WITH ANY EVACUATION ORDERS
THAT ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA. IF YOUR HOME IS VULNERABLE TO HIGH
WINDS...OR YOU LIVE IN A SURGE ZONE OR ANY LOCATION PRONE TO
FLOODING...EVACUATE TO A DESIGNATED SHELTER OR RIDE OUT THE STORM
IN THE STURDY HOME OF FAMILY OR FRIENDS OUTSIDE OF EVACUATION
ZONES.
ITEMS TO BRING TO A SHELTER INCLUDE A FIRST AID KIT...MEDICINES
AND PRESCRIPTIONS... BABY FOOD AND DIAPERS...GAMES AND BOOKS...
TOILETRIES...A BATTERY POWERED RADIO...A CELL PHONE...FLASHLIGHTS
WITH EXTRA BATTERIES...A BLANKET OR SLEEPING BAG FOR EACH
PERSION...PERSONAL IDENTIFICATION...COPIES OF KEY PAPERS SUCH AS
INSURANCE POLICIES...AVAILABLE CASH AND CREDIT CARDS. REMEMBER...
PETS ARE NOT ALLOWED IN MOST PUBLIC SHELTERS...SO CHECK AHEAD
WITH YOUR INTENDED SHELTER.
REGARDING YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS...COVER ALL WINDOWS AND DOORS
WITH SHUTTERS OR PLYWOOD. MOVE PATIO FURNITURE AND OTHER LOOSE
OBJECTS INDOORS. BRACE ALL EXTERIOR DOORS...INCLUDING GARAGE
DOORS. DO THIS AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.
IF YOU NEED TO MAKE A TRIP TO THE HARDWARE STORE...THE GROCERY
STORE...OR THE GAS STATION...DO SO AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.
&&
...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IDA MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR STRONG
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINOR DAMAGE WILL
OCCUR TO MANY MOBILE HOMES. A FEW HOMES MAY RECEIVE MOSTLY MINOR
DAMAGE TO ROOF SHINGLES AND SIDING. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT ITEMS
MAY BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE. SOME
ELECTRICAL WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOCAL POWER OUTAGES ARE
LIKELY. MOST NEWLY PLANTED TREES AND SHRUBS WILL BE DAMAGED OR
UPROOTED. SOME WEAKER SMALL TREES AND LARGE BRANCHES MAY SNAP.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE HURRICANE
PROTECTION LEVEES...AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MISSISSIPPI COAST FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FLOODING OF SEVERAL FEET OF WATER
MAY OCCUR IN NON ELEVATED STRUCTURES OR THOSE BUILT ON A
SLABS...CAUSING DAMAGE. ROADS ALONG THE COAST...BAYOUS AND LOW
LYING AREAS MAY CLOSE WITH UPWARDS OF SEVERAL FEET OF WATER ON
THEM. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT
PROPERTY AND HEAD EVACUATION ADVICE FROM EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SEE LATEST
FORECAST FOR LATEST INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT IF FLOODING
RAINS OCCUR.
$$
LAZ038-040-058>062-065>067-MSZ077-091700-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TI.A.0001.091108T1651Z-091111T0000Z/
TANGIPAHOA-ST. TAMMANY-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-PEARL RIVER-
1051 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
...TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...
..NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE IDA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND.
STRONGLY CONSIDER EVACUATING IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...AND DO
SO IF ORDERED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS.
&&
...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IDA MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON TO TUESDAY MORNING.
MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR IN OLDER MOBILE HOME PARKS. NEWLY PLANTED
TREES AND SHRUBS MAY BE UPROOTED IF NOT SECURED PROPERLY. WEAK
TREE BRANCHES MAY SNAP. RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE UNFASTENED
ITEMS...SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND DECK FURNITURE...INDOORS.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
MINOR STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES AND IN AREAS AROUND LAKES
PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME NON ELEVATED HOMES IN THESE AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE
FLOODING. MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING OF PROPERTY AND
PERHAPS SOME FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADS MAY OCCUR DURING HIGH
TIDE.
...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SEE LATEST
FORECAST FOR LATEST INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT IF FLOODING
RAINS OCCUR.
$$
32
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 081601
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 25W ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP252009
200 AM CHST MON NOV 9 2009
...TROPICAL STORM 25W RACING NORTHEAST...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...TROPICAL STORM 25W WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 160.1 DEGREES EAST. THIS
IS ABOUT 475 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND...1070 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND 1200 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM.
TROPICAL STORM 25W IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM 25W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN
THIS AFTERNOON AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
REPEATING THE 100 AM POSITION...LATITUDE 22.6 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 160.1 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM.
$$
STANKO
000
WTCA41 TJSJ 081525
TCPSP1
BOLETIN
HURACAN IDA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 18
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL112009
900 AM CST DOMINGO 8 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
...EL CENTRO DE IDA SE MUEVE HACIA EL CANAL DE YUCATAN...VIGILANCIA
DE HURACAN FUE EMITIDA PARA PORCIONES DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO...
A LAS 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN FUE EMITIDA
PARA GRAND ISLE LOUSIANA HACIA LA FRONTERA DE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA.
ESTA VIGILANCIA NO INCLUYE LA CIUDAD DE NEW ORLEANS. VIGILANCIA DE
HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA
BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS.
AVISO DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN EN
MEXICO DESDE PLAYA DEL CARMEN HASTA CABO CATOCHE. AVISO DE HURACAN
SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO
AVISO...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 24 HORAS. PREPARACION PARA SALVAR
VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBERAN COMPLETARSE EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO.
VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA PENINSULA DE
YUCATAN EN MEXICO DESDE TULUM A PLAYA DEL CARMEN. VIGILANCIA DE
HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL
AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA.
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA PENINSULA DEL
YUCATAN EN MEXICO DESDE PUNTA ALLEN HACIA EL NORTE HASTA PLAYA DEL
CARMEN Y DE CABO CATOCHE AL OESTE A SAN FELIPE. AVISO DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES
EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 24 HORAS.
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA PROVINCIA
CUBANA DE PINAR DEL RIO.
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA ISLA JUVENTUD.
INTERESES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA NORTE DEL GOLFO DEBEN MONITOREAR EL
PROGRESO DE IDA. VIGILANCIAS Y AVISIOS ADICIONALES PODRIAN SER
REQUERIDOS TARDE HOY.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA EN LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR MONITOREAR
LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE SU AREA FUERA DE LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS...FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO
METEOROLOGICO.
A LAS 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN IDA ESTABA
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 86.0 OESTE O
CERCA DE 75 MILLAS...120 KM...AL NORESTE DE CONZUMEL MEXICO Y A 80
MILLAS...125 KM...AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE LA ESQUINA OESTE DE CUBA.
IDA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA AL NOROESTE CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KM/HORA.
SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE CON UN AUMENTO EN LA
VELOCIDAD DE TRANSLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...UN GIRO
GRADUAL AL NORTE ES POSIBLE EL MARTES. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PROYECTADA...SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE IDA SE MUEVA A TRAVES DEL
CANAL DEL YUCATAN HOY...Y CERCA DEL NORTE DEL GOLFO EL MARTES.
LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS SON A 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...CON
RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. IDA ES CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA
SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL
HOY...Y UN DEBILITAMIENTO GRADUAL EL LUNES. SE ESPERA QUE IDA PIERDA
CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES EL MARTES MIENTRAS SE VA ACERCANDO A LA
COSTA DEL GOLFO...PERO PUEDE LLEGAR A LA COSTA COMO CICLON TROPICAL.
LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 15 MILLAS...30
KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 983 MB...29.03 PULGADAS.
SE ESPERA QUE IDA OCASIONE TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE
PORCIONES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL OESTE DE CUBA...CON
CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 10 PULGADAS.
MAREJADAS CICLONICAS PUEDEN AUMENTAR LOS NIVELES DE AGUA DE 3 A 4
PIES SOBRE EL NIVEL DE LA COSTA DE LA PENINSULA DEL YUCATAN...CON
GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES CERCANAS A LA COSTA.
...RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 9:00 AM CST...
LOCALIZACION...21.2 NORTE 86.0 OESTE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...90 MPH
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOROESTE O 325 GRADOS A 10 MPH
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...983 MILIBARAS
LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO
NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 1200 PM CST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA
COMPLETA A LAS 3:00 PM CST.
$$
PRONOSTICADORES BEVEN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 081521
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN NOV 08 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...07N77W TO
07N100W TO 10N110W TO 10N120W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT
10N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 14N116.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ AXIS FROM 119W TO 135W.
...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER SHORTWAVE IS OVER NORTH MEXICO. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
EAST AND WEAKENING AND WILL CROSS INTO TEXAS LATER TODAY. MULTI
LEVEL BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS ARE OVER MEXICO NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CLOUD AREA.
A MOSTLY UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN AXIS FROM
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 21N130W THEN SOUTH TO 11N140W. THE
WESTERN PART OF THIS FEATURE IS PART OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOSTLY WEST OF THE AREA. NORTH AND WEST OF
THIS TROUGH AXIS TO A LINE FROM 30N110W TO 25N140W THE
ATMOSPHERE IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.
NORTH OF THIS DRY AREA SOME UPPER MOISTURE IS PRESENT WITH SOME
THIN BROKEN MOSTLY UPPER CLOUDS. THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS AREA
NORTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS THE LOWER LEVELS ARE COVERED BY BROKEN
TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. W OF 116W SOUTH OF THE TROUGH
AXIS A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD
WITH THIN BROKEN MOSTLY UPPER CLOUDS.
A SHARP MOSTLY UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
CONTINUING TO THE ITCZ NEAR 90W. OUTSIDE THE ITCZ THE AREA OVER
THE OCEAN AND MEXICO WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS DRY AND CLOUD
FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND
GUATEMALA AND BELIZE AND WESTERN HONDURAS MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
PRESENT WITH SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW THAT HAS BEEN OFF THE COAST OF
GUATEMALA FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND IS NOW MOVING INLAND.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTH AND THE STRONG SOUTHERLY DRY
FLOW OVER THE LOW SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW.
LOW NEAR 11N119W WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB IS MOVING
SLOWLY WEST. CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCASIONALLY DEVELOPING NEAR
THE CENTER AND IS ORGANIZED BY THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE
LOW IS NEAR THE ITCZ AND THIS IS NOT A FAVORABLE CONDITION FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THE COMPUTER MODELS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT SLOWLY
MOVES WEST.
ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE ITCZ IS LOCATED NEAR 11N110W WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1010 MB. THIS FEATURE HAS ALSO OCCASIONALLY HAD
CONVECTION DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER BUT HAS NOT BEEN ORGANIZED BY
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO
A TROUGH TODAY AND DRIFT WEST.
REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW.
MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 113W. ELSEWHERE
BESIDES THE LOWS MENTIONED ABOVE A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT
THE SURFACE.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION TO LESS
THAN GALE FORCE AND ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT
THIS AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
WEST OF IDA GAP WINDS WILL BEGIN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.
$$
LL
000
WTUS84 KLIX 081519
HLSLIX
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IDA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
919 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE IN SELECT LOCATIONS AND COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.
A WATCH MEANS THAT THE STATED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS FOR THE SPECIFIED AREAS.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 9 AM CST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 75 MILES
NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THIS IS ABOUT 660 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GULFPORT MS...OR ABOUT 610 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND ISLE LA.
STORM MOTION WAS NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 90 MPH.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS SHORTLY. IT WILL PROVIDE IMPORTANT DETAILS
REGARDING THE EVOLVING TROPICAL CYCLONE THREATS AND THEIR
POTENTIAL IMPACTS UPON THE AREA.
GMZ550-555-570-575-091530-
/O.NEW.KLIX.HU.A.0001.091108T1519Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
919 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...
..NEW INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED STATEMENT
WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
$$
LAZ063-064-069-070-MSZ080>082-091530-
/O.NEW.KLIX.HU.A.1011.091108T1519Z-000000T0000Z/
UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER ST. BERNARD-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
919 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...
..NEW INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED STATEMENT
WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
$$
LAZ068-091530-
/O.NEW.KLIX.HU.A.1011.091108T1519Z-000000T0000Z/
LOWER JEFFERSON-
919 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...
..NEW INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED STATEMENT
WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
$$
CAB
000
WTNT31 KNHC 081447
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
900 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009
...CENTER OF IDA MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...HURRICANE WATCH
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
AT 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND
ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. THIS WATCH DOES
NOT INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN AND FROM
CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...
120 KM...NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 80 MILES...125 KM...
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
LIKELY BY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK....THE CENTER OF IDA
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY...AND BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING
EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IDA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS ON TUESDAY AS IT NEARS THE GULF COAST...BUT IT
COULD REACH THE COAST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
...SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...21.2N 86.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1200 PM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300
PM CST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
WTNT21 KNHC 081438
TCMAT1
HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1500 UTC SUN NOV 08 2009
AT 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND
ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. THIS WATCH DOES
NOT INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN AND FROM
CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 86.0W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 86.0W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 85.8W
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.8N 87.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...135NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.6N 88.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 28.2N 88.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 90SW 115NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 30.0N 87.8W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 90SW 115NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 30.5N 84.5W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 75SE 75SW 45NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 30.0N 81.0W...EXTRATROPICAL OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 86.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
ACPN50 PHFO 081345
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SUN NOV 8 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
$$
HOUSTON
000
WTCA41 TJSJ 081242
TCPSP1
BOLETIN
HURACAN IDA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 17A
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL112009
600 AM CST DOMINGO 8 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
...IDA SE ACERCA A LA ESQUINA NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DEL
YUCATAN...
AVISO DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN EN
MEXICO DESDE PLAYA DEL CARMEN HASTA CABO CATOCHE. AVISO DE HURACAN
SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO
AVISO...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 24 HORAS. PREPARACION PARA SALVAR
VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBERAN COMPLETARSE EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO.
VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA PENINSULA DE
YUCATAN EN MEXICO DESDE TULUM A PLAYA DEL CARMEN. VIGILANCIA DE
HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL
AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA.
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA PENINSULA DEL
YUCATAN DESDE PUNTA ALLEN HACIA EL NORTE HASTA PLAYA DEL CARMEN Y DE
CABO CATOCHE AL OESTE A SAN FELIPE. AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL
AREA BAJO AVISO...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 24 HORAS.
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA PROVINCIA
CUBANA DE PINAR DEL RIO.
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA ISLA JUVENTUD.
A LAS 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA ISLA
GRAN CAYMAN FUE DESCONTINUADA.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA EN LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS...FAVOR MONITOREAR
LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE SU AREA FUERA DE LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS...FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO
METEOROLOGICO.
A LAS 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN IDA ESTABA
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.7 OESTE O
CERCA DE 70 MILLAS...115 KM...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE CONZUMEL MEXICO Y A
85 MILLAS...135 KM...AL SUR-SUROESTE DEL OESTE DE CUBA.
IDA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA AL NOROESTE CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/HORA.
SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE Y LUEGO AL NORTE CON UN
AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRANSLACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS. EN LA
TRAYECTORIA PROYECTADA...SE ESPERA QUE EL CENTRO DE IDA SE MUEVA A
TRAVES DEL CANAL DEL YUCATAN Y SOBRE EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO
TARDE HOY...PASANDO CERCA DE LA ESQUINA NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE
YUCATAN.
LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS SON A 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...CON
RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. IDA ES CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA
SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL...IDA
PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA
NOCHE. DEBILITAMIENTO GRADUAL SE ESPERA TARDE EL LUNES.
LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 15 MILLAS...30
KILOMETROS...DEL CENTRO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 140 MILLAS...220 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES DE
LA RESERVA DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DE 983 MB...29.03 PULGADAS.
SE ESPERA QUE IDA OCASIONE TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE
PORCIONES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL OESTE DE CUBA...CON
CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 10 PULGADAS.
MAREJADAS CICLONICAS PUEDEN AUMENTAR LOS NIVELES DE AGUA DE 3 A 4
PIES SOBRE EL NIVEL DE LA COSTA DE LA PENINSULA DEL
YUCATAN...CON GRANDES Y PELIGROSAS OLAS ROMPIENTES.
...RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 6:00 AM CST...
LOCALIZACION...20.8 NORTE 85.7 OESTE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...90 MPH
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOROESTE O 325 GRADOS A 12 MPH
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...983 MILIBARAS
LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE
HURACANES A LAS 900 AM CST.
$$
PRONOSTICADORES BEVEN/ROBERTS
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 081211
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
700 AM EST DOMINGO 8 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS PARA EL
HURACAN IDA...LOCALIZADO A 70 MILLAS AL ESTE-NORESTE DE
COZUMEL MEXICO.
EN EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN
LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS/BEVEN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
AXNT20 KNHC 081146
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 08 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 20.8N 85.7W AT 08/1200 UTC OR
ABOUT 60 NM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 NM SSW OF THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80
KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60/75 NM RADIUS OF 20N86W
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 80W-86W AND CLUSTERS
OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN 77W-88W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
HAS MOVED W OF THE BROAD AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BUT SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE THE CURVATURE
OF THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 40W-48W
AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ON THE W SIDE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
CONTINUES MOVING BENEATH DRY UPPER LEVEL NLY FLOW THAT COVERS
THE E CARIBBEAN AND THUS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 7N20W 9N44W 8N55W 10N62W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 11W-16W INCLUDING THE COAST OF W AFRICA...
FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 36W-44W...AND FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 29W-40W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS IDA MOVES TOWARD
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE SE GULF WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM A 1025 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER W TO
CENTRAL TEXAS COVERING THE N GULF N OF 26N. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SURFACE RIDGE AND HURRICANE IDA IS
PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SE GULF INCLUDING THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...SEE MIAHSFAT2. A SURFACE TROUGH AT 08/0900
UTC IS OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM S MEXICO NEAR 18N932W
THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 21N95W TO 25N96W. THIS SURFACE
TROUGH/LOW ARE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 26N96W TO OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N92W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW COUPLED WITH
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ARE GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-29N W OF 88W TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF
THE W GULF W OF 87W. MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE IDA IS BEING
ADVECTED NE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS CUBA OVER THE
SE GULF WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N E OF 87W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE
IDA AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS
MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS W CUBA
INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
LEVEL HIGH ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N81W.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND
PANAMA BETWEEN 74W-81W. E OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS RELATIVELY
DRY AND STABLE AIR WITH NLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATING THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 74W WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING
SHOWERS BEING USHERED IN ON MODERATE/STRONG ELY TRADEWINDS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE CONTROLS THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 60W ANCHORED
BY A SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS WITH A 1025 MB HIGH INLAND OVER THE
SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER AND 1027 MB HIGH NW OF BERMUDA
WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND A SECOND 1027 MB HIGH OFF
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. FARTHER E IS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE REGION NEAR 32N47W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 26N54W TO 24N64W
THEN BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH TO 23N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM OVER THE
BAHAMAS ACROSS CUBA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
COMPLIMENTS OF HURRICANE IDA. THE E ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST NE
OF THE AZORES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING AN AXIS THROUGH 32N34W INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 12N54W
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N45W TO 21N45W
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 39W AND THE
SURFACE TROUGH. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AFRICA ALONG 11N
TO 43W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS ABOVE AND
ALONG THE W EXTENT OF THE ABOVE RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W/47W.
$$
WALLACE
000
ABNT20 KNHC 081143
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IDA...LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
000
WTNT31 KNHC 081143
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
600 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009
...IDA APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN AND FROM
CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
AT 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND
CAYMAN ISLAND IS DISCONTINUED.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE MARINE AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES AND
WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...
115 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 85 MILES...
135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY...PASSING CLOSE TO
THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND IDA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE TODAY OR TONIGHT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
BY LATE MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.
...SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.8N 85.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
900 AM CST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081132
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
000
WTCA41 TJSJ 080956
TCPSP1
BOLETIN
HURACAN IDA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 17...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL112009
300 AM EST DOMINGO 8 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
...IDA SE MUEVE HACIA EL NOROESTE...SE MOVERA CERCA DE LA PENINSULA
DEL YUCATAN TARDE HOY...
UN AVISO DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN
DE MEXICO DESDE PLAYA DEL CARMEN HASTA CABO CATOCHE. AVISO DE
HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA
BAJO AVISO...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 24 HORAS. PREPARACION PARA
SALVAR VIDA Y PROPIEDAD DEBERAN COMPLETARSE EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO.
VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA PENINSULA DE
YUCATAN EN MEXICO DESDE TULUM A CABO CATOCHE. VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES
EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA.
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS GRAN
CAYMAN.
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA LA PENINSULA DEL YUCATAN
DESDE PUNTA ALLEN HACIA EL NORTE HASTA SAN FELIPE. AVISO DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES
EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 24 HORAS.
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA LA PROVINCIA CUBANA DE
PINAR DEL RIO.
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA ISLE OF YOUTH.
PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...VERIFIQUE
LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA FUERA DE LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS...POR FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO
METEOROLOGICO NACIONAL.
A LAS 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN IDA ESTABA
LOCALIZADO POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.6 OESTE O CERCA
DE 85 MILLAS...135 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE CONZUMEL MEXICO Y A 95
MILLAS...150 KM...AL SUR DEL OESTE DE CUBA.
IDA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 12 MPH...19
KM/HORA. UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE NORTEOESTE Y LUEGO AL NORTE SE
ESPERA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE
TRANSLACION. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE IDA SE
MOVERA A TRAVES DEL CANAL DEL YUCATAN Y SOBRE EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO
DE MEXICO TARDE HOY...PASANDO CERCA DE LA ESQUINA NORESTE DE LA
PENINSULA DE YUCATAN.
LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. IDA ES CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA
SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL EN LAS
PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...IDA PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS
MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. UN DEBILITAMIENTO GRADUAL SE ESPER QUE
COMIENCE TARDE EL LUNES.
LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN FUERA DEL CENTRO
HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KILOMETROS... Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN FUERA DEL CENTRO HASTA 140
MILLAS...220 KILOMETROS.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES DE
LA RESERVA DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DE 984 MB...28.06 PULGADAS.
SE ESPERA QUE IDA OCASIONE TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE
PORCIONES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL OESTE DE CUBA...CON
CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 10 PULGADAS. DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA SON
POSIBLES EN ISLAS CAYMAN.
...RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 3 AM CST...
LOCALIZACION...20.5 NORTE 85.6 OESTE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...90 MPH
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOROESTE O 325 GRADOS A 12 MPH
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...984 MILIBARAS
LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO
NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 6 AM CST SEGUIDO POR UNA ADVERTENCIA
COMPLETA A LAS 9 AM CST.
$$
PRONOSTICADORES BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 080952
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 25W ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP252009
800 PM CHST SUN NOV 8 2009
...TROPICAL STORM 25W TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...TROPICAL STORM 25W WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 158.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS
IS ABOUT 540 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND...965 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND 1085 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM.
TROPICAL STORM 25W IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 12 MPH. IT IS
EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM 25W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN ON
MONDAY.
REPEATING THE 700 PM POSITION...LATITUDE 21.8 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 158.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 12 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM MONDAY MORNING.
$$
MIDDLEBROOKE
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080930
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN NOV 08 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0730 UTC.
...TROPICAL LOWS...
THE 1008 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 13N90W IS SLOWLY
MOVING N SLOWLY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH IMMEDIATELY TO
ITS W WHICH HAS BEEN CONTRIBUTING BOTH SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR
AND DRY AIR...WHICH IS BEING ENTRAINED BY THE LOW...FOR OVER A
DAY. THIS PERSISTENT SYSTEM IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TO
A TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITHIN THIS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.
IN THE MEANTIME...SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS DISPLACED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND IS FOUND
MAINLY OVER LAND WITHIN 150 NM NE QUADRANT. THE ASCAT PASS FROM
0304 UTC SHOWED SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE WITHIN
90 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW.
THE 1009 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 11N118W HAS WEAKENED
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AS THE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER JET TO
ITS N HAS BEGUN TO SINK SOUTHWARD...PROVIDING 20 TO 30 KT OF
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN INCREASED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT IS DISPLACED
BETWEEN 120 NM AND 240 NM E OF THE LOW CENTER DUE TO THE SHEAR
ALOFT. THIS LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TO A TROUGH LATER
TODAY.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 08N78W TO 11N87W TO 07N95W TO
11N115W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN
78W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 137W.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW LIES OVER WEST TEXAS AND HAS A 50 TO 70 KT WESTERLY
UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM ITS SOUTHERN EDGE ALONG 22N TO 122W
WHERE IT TAKES A SOUTHERLY TURN ON THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH TO NEAR 12N138W. THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE JET IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE
ITCZ AXIS W OF 137W. CIRRUS EXTENDING FROM THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND ALONG THE JET AXIS W OF 125W. THIS JET
IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION N OF 15N WHERE A BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD CAN BE FOUND.
A HIGH PRES RIDGE STEMMING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N136W
DOMINATES NORTH WATERS AT THE SURFACE. THIS HIGH PRES SYSTEM IS
PART OF A LARGER NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY BEING
COMPROMISED BY A COLD FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WHILE THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES FORECAST
WATERS TUE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL FROM THE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY
PUSHED INTO N WATERS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 18 FT.
THIS SWELL WILL SPREAD SE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA W OF 105W
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS OVER N WATERS
SUBSIDING TO THE 10 TO 14 FT RANGE MON EVENING. THE SE
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT N OF FORECAST WATERS WILL WEAKEN
THE SURFACE HIGH PRES AHEAD OF IT AND FORCE THE HIGH CENTER SE.
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ON
THE S SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND W OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRES SYSTEM NEAR 11N118W. QUIKSCAT PASSES FROM 0222 AND 0404 UTC
SHOW A BROAD AREA OF NE WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE HERE.
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N76W WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING W TO NEAR 13N85W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
DIFFLUENT OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AXIS AND A
NORTHEASTERLY UPPER JET OVER COLOMBIA...ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WITHIN 45 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
GAP WINDS...
THE 0304 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED N WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE
LINGERING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULD BE A SHORT
REPRIEVE. NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN FUNNEL THROUGH
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES SOUTH THROUGH NE MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF HURRICANE IDA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF IDA. INTERESTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD MONITOR THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS MANY OF THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW WINDS
INCREASING AGAIN TO GALE STRENGTH BY TUE.
$$
SCHAUER
000
WTNT31 KNHC 080906
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 17...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
300 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009
CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN YUCATAN PENINSULA
...IDA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...WILL MOVE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
LATER TODAY...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN AND FROM
CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE MARINE AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES AND
WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...
135 KM...EAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY...PASSING CLOSE TO
THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND IDA COULD BECOME A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE TODAY OR TONIGHT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY LATE MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.
...SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.5N 85.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 600 AM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900
AM CST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN
000
WTNT21 KNHC 080904
TCMAT1
HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
0900 UTC SUN NOV 08 2009
CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN YUCATAN PENINSULA
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN AND FROM
CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 85.6W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 75SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 85.6W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 85.3W
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.8N 86.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...135NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.0N 87.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 75SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.7N 88.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 105SE 75SW 115NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 28.5N 88.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 105SE 60SW 145NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.8N 86.1W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 28.0N 84.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 85.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN
000
WTNT31 KNHC 080847
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
300 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009
...IDA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...WILL MOVE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
LATER TODAY...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE MARINE AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES AND
WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...
135 KM...EAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY...PASSING CLOSE TO
THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND IDA COULD BECOME A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE TODAY OR TONIGHT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY LATE MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.
...SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.5N 85.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 600 AM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900
AM CST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN
000
WTNT21 KNHC 080845
TCMAT1
HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
0900 UTC SUN NOV 08 2009
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 85.6W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 75SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 85.6W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 85.3W
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.8N 86.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...135NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.0N 87.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 75SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.7N 88.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 105SE 75SW 115NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 28.5N 88.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 105SE 60SW 145NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.8N 86.1W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 28.0N 84.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 85.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN
000
WTCA41 TJSJ 080820
TCPSP1
BOLETIN
HURACAN IDA ADVERTENCIA ESPECIAL NUMERO 16
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL112009
115 AM EST DOMINGO 8 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
...AVISO DE HURACAN FUE EMITIDO PARA PARTES DE LA PENINSULA DEL
YUCATAN...
A LAS 115 AM CST...0715 UTC...EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA EMITIDO UN
AVISO DE HURACAN DESDE PLAYA DEL CARMEN HASTA CABO CATOCHE. AVISO DE
HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE HURACAN SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA
BAJO AVISO...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 24 HORAS.
VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA PENINSULA DE
YUCATAN EN MEXICO DESDE TULUM A CABO CATOCHE. VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES
EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS.
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS GRAN
CAYMAN.
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA LA PENINSULA DEL YUCATAN
DESDE PUNTA ALLEN HACIA EL NORTE HASTA SAN FELIPE. AVISO DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES
EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 24 HORAS.
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA LA PROVINCIA CUBANA DE
PINAR DEL RIO.
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA ISLE OF YOUTH.
PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...VERIFIQUE
LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA FUERA DE LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS...POR FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO
METEOROLOGICO NACIONAL.
A LAS 115 AM CST...0715 UTC...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN IDA ESTABA
LOCALIZADO POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.4 OESTE O CERCA
DE 100 MILLAS...160 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE CONZUMEL MEXICO Y A 110
MILLAS...175 KM...AL SUR DEL OESTE DE CUBA.
IDA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 10 MPH...17
KM/HORA Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS
PROXIMAS 48 HORAS CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRANSLACION. EN
LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE IDA SE MOVERA A TRAVES
DEL CANAL DEL YUCATAN Y SOBRE EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO HOY.
LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. IDA ES CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA
SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL EN LAS
PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...IDA PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS
MAS TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE.
LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN FUERA DEL CENTRO
HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KILOMETROS... Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN FUERA DEL CENTRO HASTA 140
MILLAS...220 KILOMETROS.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES DE
LA RESERVA DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DE 983 MB...28.03 PULGADAS.
SE ESPERA QUE IDA OCASIONE TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE
PORCIONES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL OESTE DE CUBA...CON
CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 10 PULGADAS. DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA SON
POSIBLES EN ISLAS CAYMAN.
...RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 1:15 AM CST...
LOCALIZACION...20.2 NORTE 85.4 OESTE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...90 MPH
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE O 325 GRADOS A 10 MPH
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...983 MILIBARAS
LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE
HURACANES A LAS 3 AM EST.
$$
PRONOSTICADORES BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN
000
ACPN50 PHFO 080745
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST SAT NOV 7 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
$$
HOUSTON
000
WTNT21 KNHC 080711
TCMAT1
HURRICANE IDA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
0715 UTC SUN NOV 08 2009
AT 115 AM CST...0715 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 85.4W AT 08/0715Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 75SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 85.4W AT 08/0715Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 84.5W
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.1N 85.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...135NE 75SE 40SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.8N 87.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 75SE 40SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.4N 87.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 75SE 40SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.7N 87.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...175NE 105SE 45SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.0N 86.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 105NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 29.0N 85.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 85.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN
000
WTNT31 KNHC 080711
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IDA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
115 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
AT 115 AM CST...0715 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 115 AM CST...0715 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...
160 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 110 MILES...175
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...PASSING CLOSE TO THE
NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND IDA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
...SUMMARY OF 115 AM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.2N 85.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
300 AM CST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN
000
WTCA41 TJSJ 080645
TCPSP1
BOLETIN
HURACAN IDA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 15A
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL112009
1200 AM EST DOMINGO 8 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
...IDA FORTALECIENDOSE...Y MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE...
VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA PENINSULA DE
YUCATAN EN MEXICO DESDE TULUM A CABO CATOCHE. VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES
EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS.
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS GRAN
CAYMAN.
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA LA PENINSULA DEL YUCATAN
DESDE PUNTA ALLEN HACIA EL NORTE HASTA SAN FELIPE. AVISO DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES
EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 24 HORAS.
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA LA PROVINCIA CUBANA DE
PINAR DEL RIO.
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA ISLE OF YOUTH.
PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...VERIFIQUE
LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA EN SU AREA FUERA DE LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS...POR FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO
METEOROLOGICO NACIONAL.
A LAS 1200 AM EST...0600 UTC...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN IDA ESTABA
LOCALIZADO POR EL AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.31 OESTE O CERCA
DE 110 MILLAS...175 KM...AL ESTE SURESTE DE CONZUMEL MEXICO Y A 120
MILLAS...195 KM...AL SUR DEL OESTE DE CUBA.
IDA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 12 MPH...19
KM/HORA Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS
PROXIMAS 48 HORAS CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRANSLACION. EN
LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE IDA SE MOVERA A TRAVES
DEL CANAL DEL YUCATAN Y SOBRE EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO HOY.
REPORTES DE UN AVION DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN VIENTOS MAXIMOS
SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS
FUERTES. IDA ES CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE ESPERA
ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO...PERO SE ESPERA ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO PARA EL
LUNES.
LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN FUERA DEL CENTRO
HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KILOMETROS... Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN FUERA DEL CENTRO HASTA 140
MILLAS...220 KILOMETROS. LA BOYA DE NOAA 42056...LOCALIZADA EN EL
NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE A 120 MILLAS...195 KILOMETROS...ESTE SURESTE
DE CONZUMEL MEXICO...RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS POR UN
MINUTO DE 56 MPH...91 KILOMETROS POR HORA.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR BOYA 42056 ES DE 980
MB...28.94 PULGADAS.
SE ESPERA QUE IDA OCASIONE TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE
PORCIONES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL OESTE DE CUBA...CON
CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 10 PULGADAS. DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA SON
POSIBLES EN ISLAS CAYMAN.
...RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 12 AM EST...
LOCALIZACION...20.1 NORTE 85.3 OESTE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...90 MPH
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE O 340 GRADOS A 12 MPH
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...980 MILIBARAS
LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE
HURACANES A LAS 3 AM EST.
$$
PRONOSTICADORES BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN
000
AXNT20 KNHC 080602
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 08 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AS OF 08/0415 UTC.
HURRICANE IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 20.1N 85.3W AT 08/0600 UTC OR
ABOUT 96 NM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 105 NM S OF THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MOVING NNW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75
KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 20N85W
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 80W-87W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
CUBA/YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE WAS RELOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS. WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 32W-50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM
10N-18N BETWEEN 33W-46W AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT ON THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
CONTINUES MOVING BENEATH DRY UPPER LEVEL NLY FLOW THAT COVERS
THE E CARIBBEAN AND THUS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 6N26W 7N44W 7N54W 9N62W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
INLAND AND WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
LIBERIA TO SIERRA LEONE AND FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 28W-43W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS COVERED THE GULF IS BEGINNING TO
SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF IDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM A SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS WITH THE MAIN 1027 MB
HIGH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH A 1025 MB HIGH ALONG
THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA TO CENTRAL TEXAS COVERING THE N GULF
N OF 26N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SURFACE RIDGE AND
HURRICANE IDA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SE GULF
INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...SEE MIAHSFAT2. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N91W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 21N95W
TO 24N96W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH/LOW ARE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 24N96W TO OVER S
MEXICO NEAR 18N92W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE
TROUGH/LOW COUPLED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ARE GENERATING A BROAD
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S
OF 28N W OF 90W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS ARE BEING ADVECTED NE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND IS ALSO BRINGING MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE IDA
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS CUBA OVER THE
SE GULF WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 25N E OF 90W THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE IDA
AGAIN TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS MOVING N-NE
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH ANCHORED
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N76W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA BETWEEN 73W-76W.
E OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR WITH
NLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATING THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W WITH
ONLY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING SHOWERS BEING USHERED IN ON
MODERATE/STRONG ELY TRADEWINDS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE CONTROLS THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 60W ANCHORED
BY A SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE FROM
THE MAIN 1027 MB HIGH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA ACROSS BERMUDA TO
30N60W. FARTHER E IS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR
32N48W AND EXTENDS SW TO 27N55W THEN BECOMING STATIONARY TO
25N61W WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING W TO JUST E OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS NEAR 23N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY E OF
64W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHEAR AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM OVER THE BAHAMAS ACROSS CUBA AND
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA COMPLIMENTS OF HURRICANE IDA. THE
E ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A
1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING AN AXIS THROUGH 32N35W INTO
THE TROPICS NEAR 14N52W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AFRICA
ALONG 14N TO 44W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS
ABOVE AND ALONG THE W EXTENT OF THE ABOVE RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 45W/46W.
$$
WALLACE
000
ABNT20 KNHC 080558
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED HURRICANE IDA...LOCATED ABOUT 110 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
COZUMEL MEXICO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
000
WTNT31 KNHC 080557
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1200 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009
...IDA STRENGTHENING...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE
20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES...175 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM...
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL HEADING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK
...IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT A SLOW WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM...FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42056...LOCATED IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM...EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO...RECENTLY REPORTED A ONE-MINUTE
SUSTAINED WIND OF 56 MPH...91 KM/HR.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AN OBSERVATION FROM
NOAA BUOY 42056 IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
...SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.1N 85.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
300 AM CST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 080536
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 080332
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 25W ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP252009
200 PM CHST SUN NOV 8 2009
...TROPICAL STORM 25W INTENSIFIES SLIGHTLY...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...TROPICAL STORM 25W WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.6 DEGREES EAST. THIS
IS ABOUT 600 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND...885 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND 1000 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM.
TROPICAL STORM 25W IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 9 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED
TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 25W IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN
GRADUALLY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 100 PM POSITION...LATITUDE 21.2 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 157.6 DEGREES EAST...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 8 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM TONIGHT.
$$
ZIOBRO
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080328
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN NOV 08 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.
...TROPICAL LOWS...
.LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 12.5N90W ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB AND IS
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE CIRCULATION IS MOSTLY A SWIRL OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS LACKING CONVECTION.
.LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 12N118.5W ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB AND IS
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SURFACE LOW IS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE AND
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE WAS ENHANCING INTERMITTENT
CONVECTION BUT HAS SINCE DECREASED CONSIDERABLY TODAY.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 09N83W TO 07N99W TO 12N118W TO
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 07N106W TO 11N112W AND ALSO
WITHIN 150 NM OF 09N126W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF 08N140W.
...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF A LINE
FROM 00N132W TO 28N122W TO 00N109W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM
CONVECTION W OF THE AREA IS STREAMING E MERGING WITH THE
MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION CENTERED ON 08N140W. THE TROPICAL PLUME
CONTINUES NE ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY
FANNING OUT OVER THE TROPICS FROM 14N TO 23N BETWEEN 123W AND
133W. ITCZ CONVECTION IS ALSO ENHANCED FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN
123W AND 130W...AND ALSO ALONG THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WITH MOST OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE
SPREADING E AND SE...BUT THE UPPER LEVELS ARE SO DRY IMMEDIATELY
N AND S OF THE ITCZ THE MOISTURE DRIES OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE SUBTROPICS TO THE NW OF THE
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED RIDGE...FROM 24N130W TO 15N140W WITH DRY
UPPER AIR W OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER NW OLD
MEXICO NEAR 29N110W. DENSE UPPER MOISTURE IS OBSERVED OVER THE
NE SEMICIRCLE OF THIS CYCLONE AND IS SPREADING N ACROSS THE SW
CONUS WHERE THE MOISTURE MERGES WITH ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE
FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THAT STREAM E OVER THE AREA N OF 30N.
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SE FROM THIS CYCLONE ACROSS MEXICO TO A
BASE NEAR 08N93W. UPPER DRY AIR IS SWEEPING E ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 145W AND 120W THEN THE
DRY AIR TURNS SE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONTINUES TO PUSH
SE RIGHT INTO THE TROUGH BASE IN DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC.
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N77W WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 09N87W. CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED
EARLIER UNDER THE RIDGE OVER NW COLOMBIA AND ALSO OVER MOST OF
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA...AND THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS
NOW SPREADING SW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA NE OF A LINE FROM
02N79W TO 09N87W.
AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 32N140W TO 15N110W AND
IS THE PREDOMINATE FEATURE. N TO NE TO E WINDS ARE GENERALLY 15
TO 20 KT THROUGH THE RIDGE. LARGE NW SWELLS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
AREA W OF 105W WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
GAP WINDS...
N WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN AND JUST
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT INTO SUN AND
FINALLY DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT BY SUNSET SUN.
$$
NELSON
000
WTNT31 KNHC 080246
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 PM EST SAT NOV 07 2009
...IDA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD STILL AS A TROPICAL STORM...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST OR ABOUT 150
MILES...245 KM...EAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 110 MILES...180 KM
...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON
SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42056 IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 60 MPH...97 KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
...SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.1N 84.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM EST.
$$
FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN
000
WTNT21 KNHC 080246
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
0300 UTC SUN NOV 08 2009
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 84.6W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 75SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 84.6W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 84.4W
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.2N 85.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...135NE 75SE 40SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.0N 86.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 75SE 40SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.4N 87.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 75SE 40SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.7N 87.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...175NE 105SE 45SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.0N 86.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 105NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 29.0N 85.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 84.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN
000
ACPN50 PHFO 080152
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SAT NOV 7 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
$$
BIRCHARD
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 072357
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SABADO 7 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS PARA LA
TORMENTA TROPICAL IDA...LOCALIZADA A 180 MILLAS AL ESTE SURESTE DE
COZUMEL MEXICO.
EN EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN
LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BERG
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 072356
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
000
ABNT20 KNHC 072355
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IDA...LOCATED ABOUT 180 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL
MEXICO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
AXNT20 KNHC 072353
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 07 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 19.5N 84.4W AT 08/0000 UTC
OR ABOUT 155 NM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 140 NM SSE OF
THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MOVING NNW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60
KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 82W-87W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 16N-23N
BETWEEN 76W-87W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN 32W-45W AND A BROAD AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE
VORTICITY N OF 9N BETWEEN 35W-50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 34W-46W AND IS LARGELY
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED E OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 40W-55W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE CONTINUES MOVING BENEATH DRY NLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THUS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS
NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED LOW-
LEVEL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS STRETCHING WESTWARD
TO PUERTO RICO.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N23W 7N39W 7N43W 10N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 7W-11W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 52W-56W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND EASTERN TEXAS
CONTINUING SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN MEXICO TO 20N99W. STRONG
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THIS
EVENING. THIS ELY FLOW FILTERS NORTH OF TROPICAL STORM IDA INTO
THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT
07/2100 UTC EXTENDS FROM 24N97W INTO A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
21N95W TO 19N92W. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW ARE SUPPORTED ALOFT
BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS GULF
ALONG 95W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION.
THE SURFACE FEATURES ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
S OF 27N W OF 86W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IS BEING
ADVECTED NE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N75W. THIS
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO BRINGING MOISTURE FROM
TROPICAL STORM IDA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND SE GULF WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 25N BETWEEN THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA AND 90W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL
STORM IDA THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS
MOVING N-NE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS MUCH OF CUBA
INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS FLOW IS ANCHORED ON AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 13N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG
78W FROM 14N TO EASTERN PANAMA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WITH ENHANCEMENT OF
THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH. EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH... RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
NLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF
72W WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY BEING USHERED IN ON 15-20 KT ELY TRADEWINDS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE CONTROLS THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 60W ANCHORED
ON A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N76W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING OVER THAT AREA AND ACROSS
THE NW BAHAMAS UNDER BRISK NE SURFACE WINDS. FARTHER EAST...A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N50W AND EXTENDS SW
TO 28N55W AND THEN STATIONARY TO 24N62W. A SHEARLINE THEN
EXTENDS WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE COLD AND STATIONARY FRONTS WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEARLINE. THIS FRONTAL ZONE
IS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAKNESS OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLC AND IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC REMAINING N OF 27N.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE
AZORES NEAR 40N22W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC AND EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS FROM 26N43W TO 10N56W IN
THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE LOCATED EAST OF
THE TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF
THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 41W. THE AREA
COVERS FROM 17N-27N BETWEEN 27W-43W.
$$
HUFFMAN
000
WTNT31 KNHC 072347
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
700 PM EST SAT NOV 07 2009
...IDA TURNS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA LATER THIS EVENING.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN CUBA ON SUNDAY AND A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 180
MILES...290 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 165
MILES...270 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY...BUT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER IT ENTERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42056 IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH...72 KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
...SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.5N 84.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 PM EST.
$$
FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 072201
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 25W ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP252009
800 AM CHST SUN NOV 8 2009
...TROPICAL STORM 25W UPGRADED FROM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...TROPICAL STORM 25W WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.8 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 645 MILES WEST OF WAKE ISLAND...825 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND 940 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM.
TROPICAL STORM 25W IS MOVING EAST AT 7 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 25W IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN
GRADUALLY.
REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...LATITUDE 20.7 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 156.8 DEGREES EAST...MOVING EAST AT 7 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM.
$$
STANKO
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072149
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT NOV 07 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.
...TROPICAL LOWS...
.LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 12.5N90W ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB AND IS
NEARLY STATIONARY AND MOSTLY A SWIRL OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LACKING
CONVECTION.
.LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 12N118W ESTIMATED AT 1010 MB AND IS
MOVING SLOWLY W AT THE MOMENT. THE SURFACE LOW IS UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING
INTERMITTENT CONVECTION WHICH BECAME A CONCERN FRI NIGHT...BUT
HAS SINCE DECREASED CONSIDERABLY.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 10N79W TO 12N90W TO 07N99W TO
12N118W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 120 NM OF 06N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF LINE FROM 08N82W TO 05N100W TO 08N109W AND ALSO A LINE FROM
11N134W TO 08N140W.
...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICS S OF A LINE FROM
00N135W TO 20N120W TO 00N108W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION W
OF THE AREA IS STREAMING E AND NE TO THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE MERGING WITH DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ NEAR 08N138W...WITH
THE COMBINED PLUME CONTINUING NE AND FANNING OUT OVER THE
TROPICS FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 120W AND 135W. ITCZ CONVECTION
IS ALSO ENHANCED ALONG THE RIDGE...FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 118W
AND 110W...AND ALSO FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND 110W. MOST
OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING E AND SE...BUT THE UPPER
LEVELS ARE SO DRY THE MOISTURE DRIES OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE SUBTROPICS TO THE NW OF THE
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED TROPICAL RIDGE...FROM 24N133W TO 15N140W.
AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER NW OLD MEXICO NEAR 28N111W. DENSE UPPER
MOISTURE IS OBSERVED OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF THIS CYCLONE AND
IS SPREADING N ACROSS THE SW CONUS. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SE
FROM THIS CYCLONE ACROSS MEXICO TO A BASE NEAR 10N95W. UPPER DRY
AIR IS SWEEPING E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 25N TO 28N
BETWEEN 140W AND 120W THEN THE DRY AIR TURNS SE THROUGH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND CONTINUES TO PUSH SE RIGHT INTO THE TROUGH BASE.
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N82W WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 06N88W. CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED
EARLIER UNDER THE RIDGE OVER NW COLOMBIA AND ALSO OVER MOST OF
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS NOW SPREADING
SW OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 05N82W.
AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 32N134W TO 15N110W.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH THE RIDGE. LARGE NW
SWELLS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA W OF 105W WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
GAP WINDS...
N WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN AND JUST
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT INTO SUN AND
FINALLY DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT LATE SUN.
$$
NELSON
000
WTNT31 KNHC 072049
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
400 PM EST SAT NOV 07 2009
...IDA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...STILL MOVING NORTHWARD...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN CUBA ON SUNDAY AND A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST OR ABOUT 200
MILES...325 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 195
MILES...320 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY...BUT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER IT ENTERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
...SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.9N 84.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM EST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
000
WTNT21 KNHC 072048
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
2100 UTC SAT NOV 07 2009
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN CUBA ON SUNDAY AND A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 84.3W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 75SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 84.3W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 84.1W
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.1N 84.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 40SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.6N 85.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 75SE 40SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.8N 87.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 75SE 40SW 125NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.3N 88.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...175NE 90SE 45SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.5N 87.3W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 90SE 45SW 125NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 29.5N 86.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 84.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
000
ACPN50 PHFO 071952
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SAT NOV 7 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
$$
BIRCHARD
000
WTCA41 TJSJ 071835
TCPSP1
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL IDA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 13A
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL112009
100 PM EST SABADO 7 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
...EL CAZA HURACAN ENCUENTRA A IDA MAS FUERTE...
VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA PENINSULA DE
YUCATAN EN MEXICO DESDE TULUM A CABO CATOCHE. VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES
EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS.
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LAS ISLAS GRAN
CAYMAN.
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA LA PENINSULA DEL YUCATAN
DESDE PUNTA ALLEN HACIA EL NORTE HASTA SAN FELIPE. AVISO DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES
EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 24 HORAS.
AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA LA PROVINCIA CUBANA DE
PINAR DEL RIO. VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA ISLA
JUVENTUD.
INTERESES EN OTRAS PARTES DE LA PENINSULA DEL YUCATAN EN
MEXICO...OESTE DE CUBA Y LAS ISLAS CAYMAN DEBEN DE MONITOREAR EL
PROGRESO DE IDA.
PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...VERIFIQUE
LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
A LAS 100 AM EST...1800 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL IDA
ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.1
OESTE O CERCA DE 230 MILLAS...370 KM...AL SURESTE DE CONZUMEL MEXICO
Y A 230 MILLAS...370 KM...AL SUR DEL OESTE DE CUBA.
IDA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KM/HORA. SE
ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE CON UN AUMENTO EN LA
VELOCIDAD DE TRANSLACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. EN LA
TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE IDA SE MOVERA SOBRE O AL
ESTE DE LA PORCION DEL NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DEL YUCATAN EL
DOMINGO. SE ESPERA QUE IDA SE MUEVA SOBRE EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE
MEXICO EL DOMINGO EN LA NOCHE.
REPORTES DE UN AVION DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN VIENTOS MAXIMOS
SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS
FUERTES. IDA PODRA ADQUIRIR FUERZA DE HURACAN TARDE HOY O ESTA
NOCHE... PERO SE ESPERA ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO LUEGO DE QUE ENTRE AL
GOLFO DE MEXICO.
LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN FUERA DEL
CENTRO HASTA 120 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS MAYORMENTE HACIA EL NORTE.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO
ES DE 990 MB...29.23 PULGADAS.
SE ESPERA QUE IDA OCASIONE TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE
PORCIONES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL OESTE DE CUBA...CON
CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 10 PULGADAS. DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA SON
POSIBLES EN ISLAS CAYMAN.
...RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 1:00 PM EST...
LOCALIZACION...18.5 NORTE 84.1 OESTE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE O 360 GRADOS A 9 MPH
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...990 MILIBARAS
LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE
HURACANES A LAS 400 PM EST.
$$
PRONOSTICADORES BROWN/CANGIALOSI/BLAKE
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 071807
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SABADO 7 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS PARA LA
TORMENTA TROPICAL IDA...LOCALIZADA A 230 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE DE
COZUMEL MEXICO.
EN EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN
LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
WTNT31 KNHC 071752
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
100 PM EST SAT NOV 07 2009
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND IDA STRONGER...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE
OF YOUTH.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WESTERN
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST OR ABOUT
230 MILES...370 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 230
MILES...370 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IDA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT BUT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER IDA ENTERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY NORTH FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
...SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.5N 84.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM EST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI/BLAKE
000
ABNT20 KNHC 071749
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IDA...LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071736
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF THE
GUATEMALA/EL SALVADOR BORDER. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 071709
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 07 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.9N 84.1W AT 07/1500 UTC
OR ABOUT 255 MILES...410 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND
ABOUT 270 MILES...430 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MOVING N AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 82W-86W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 79W-86W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 35W-38W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WEAK
LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 6N20W 7N40W 9N61W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 12W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 24W-27W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N94W. A 1029
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 36N76W. NE-E
SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS OF 25-30 KT OVER THE SW GULF S OF 23N W OF 94W.
ELSEWHERE...THE E GULF HAS 20-25 KT WINDS WHILE THE NW GULF HAS
ONLY 10 KT WINDS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE S GULF S OF 28N W OF
85W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N AND OVER N
FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N95W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NE
OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER THE S GULF OF
MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF S OF 29N.
EXPECT..SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO REMAIN OVER THE S GULF AND
YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
IDA IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND STRENGTHENING. SEE ABOVE.
TRADEWINDS ARE BASICALLY 10-15 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 77W-80W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
68W-72W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N75W. ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL
FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW FROM
IDA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W
OF 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT
...IDA TO TRACK TOWARDS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N52W
TO 24N63W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 120 NM E OF
THE FRONT. A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE
AZORES AT 40N23W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF
20N BETWEEN 50W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AT 23N42W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS
PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 38W-43W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
31N28W. OVER THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 10N18W.
$$
FORMOSA
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 071535
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP252009
135 AM CHST SUN NOV 8 2009
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W NEARLY STATIONARY...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 25W WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.5 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 730 MILES WEST OF WAKE ISLAND...760 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SAIPAN AND 885 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W IS NEARLY STATIONARY. IT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN DRIFTING NORTHWARD THIS MORNING THEN NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY
AT ABOUT 2 OR 3 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND TD 25W MAY BRIEFLY BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.
REPEATING THE 100 AM POSITION...LATITUDE 21.1 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 155.5 DEGREES EAST...NEARLY STATIONARY WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM.
$$
STANKO
000
WTCA41 TJSJ 071533
TCPSP1
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL IDA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 13
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 AM EST SABADO 7 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
...IDA SE FORTALECE SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE...NUEVAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS HAN SIDO EMITIDOS...
A LAS 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA EMITIDO UNA
VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE TULUM A
CABO CATOCHE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE
CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO
VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS.
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO LAS ISLAS GRAN
CAYMAN.
A LAS 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN HA
EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA PARA LA PENINSULA DEL
YUCATAN DESDE PUNTA ALLEN HACIA EL NORTE HASTA SAN FELIPE. UN AVISO
DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 24
HORAS.
A LAS 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...EL GOBIERNO DE CUBA HA EMITIDO UN AVISO
DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA PROVINCIA DE PINAR DEL RIO. EL GOBIERNO
DE CUBA TAMBIEN HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA
ISLA JUVENTUD.
INTERESES EN OTRAS PARTES DE LA PENINSULA DEL YUCATAN EN
MEXICO...OESTE DE CUBA Y LAS ISLAS CAYMAN DEBEN DE MONITOREAR EL
PROGRESO DE IDA.
PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...VERIFIQUE
LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
A LAS 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL IDA
ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.1
OESTE O CERCA DE 255 MILLAS...410 KM...AL SURESTE DE CONZUMEL MEXICO
Y A 270 MILLAS...430 KM...AL SUR DEL OESTE DE CUBA.
IDA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KM/HORA. SE
ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE CON UN AUMENTO EN LA
VELOCIDAD DE TRANSLACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. EN LA
TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE IDA SE MOVERA SOBRE O AL
ESTE DEL LA PORCION DEL NORESTE DE LA PENINSULA DEL YUCATAN EL
DOMINGO. SE ESPERA QUE IDA SE MUEVA SOBRE EL SURESTE DEL GOLFO DE
MEXICO EL DOMINGO EN LA NOCHE.
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HA AUMENTADO A 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...CON
RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LOS
PROXIMOS DIAS...IDA PODRA ADQUIRIR FUERZA DE HURACAN EL DOMINGO. SE
ESPERA ALGUN DEBILITAMIENTO LUEGO DE QUE ENTRE AL GOLFO DE MEXICO.
LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN FUERA DEL
CENTRO HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 997 MB...29.44 PULGADAS.
SE ESPERA QUE IDA OCASIONE TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE
PORCIONES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y EL OESTE DE CUBA...CON
CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 10 PULGADAS. DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA SON
POSIBLES EN ISLAS CAYMAN.
...RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 10:00 AM EST...
LOCALIZACION...17.9 NORTE 84.1 OESTE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE O 355 GRADOS A 9 MPH
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...997 MILIBARAS
LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO
NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 100 PM EST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA
COMPLETA EMITIDA A LAS 4 PM EST.
$$
PRONOSTICADORES BROWN/CANGIALOSI/BLAKE
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071530
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT NOV 07 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...10N84W TO
06N100W TO 09N115W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN THE AREA FROM 05N TO 08N FROM 79W TO 81W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS
FROM 94W TO 102W.
...DISCUSSION...
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHORTWAVE ALMOST A CUT OFF LOW IS OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST AND WILL CROSS INTO
TEXAS SUNDAY AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. MULTI LEVEL BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CLOUDS ARE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO NORTH OF 28N FROM 105W TO
113.5W. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CLOUD AREA.
A MOSTLY UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN AXIS FROM
THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 20N TO 23N135W THEN SOUTH TO 12N140W.
THE WESTERN PART OF THIS FEATURE IS PART OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOSTLY WEST OF THE AREA. NORTH AND WEST OF
THIS TROUGH AXIS TO 30N THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS SOUTH OF 30N. NORTH OF 30N SOME
UPPER MOISTURE IS PRESENT BUT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ARE
CLOUD FREE. THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS AREA NORTH OF THE TROUGH
AXIS THE LOWER LEVELS ARE COVERED BY BROKEN TO OVERCAST
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. WITHIN 300 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS A
PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED EASTWARD BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE IS MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.
A SHARP MOSTLY UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
CONTINUING TO THE ITCZ NEAR 98W. OUTSIDE THE ITCZ THE AREA OVER
THE OCEAN IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.
OVER MEXICO MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PRESENT WITH SOME CONVECTION
OVER SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK LOW THAT HAS BEEN OFF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTH AND THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY DRY FLOW OVER THE LOW SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY DEVELOPMENT
OF THE LOW.
LOW NEAR 13N117W WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1010 MB IS MOVING
SLOWLY WEST. CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCASIONALLY DEVELOPING WITHIN
ABOUT 120 NM OF THE CENTER BUT HAS NOT PERSISTED. THE COMPUTER
MODELS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT SLOWLY MOVES WEST.
REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW.
MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 113W. ELSEWHERE
BESIDES THE TWO LOWS MENTIONED ABOVE A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED
AT THE SURFACE.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION TO LESS
THAN GALE FORCE AND ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT
BY LATE TONIGHT.
$$
LL
000
WTNT21 KNHC 071452
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1500 UTC SAT NOV 07 2009
AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO CABO
CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.
AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN
NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. THE
GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WESTERN
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 84.1W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 30SE 15SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 15SW 15NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 84.1W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 84.1W
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.9N 84.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 45SE 15SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.3N 85.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 20SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT...150NE 60SE 30SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.2N 86.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 20SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT...150NE 60SE 30SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.6N 88.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...175NE 90SE 45SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.5N 88.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...175NE 90SE 45SW 125NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 29.0N 86.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 28.0N 85.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 84.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI/BLAKE
000
WTNT31 KNHC 071452
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009
...IDA STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...NEW
WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...
AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO CABO
CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.
AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN
NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. THE
GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WESTERN
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST OR ABOUT 255
MILES...410 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 270 MILES...
430 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IDA COULD APPROACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH ON SUNDAY. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER IDA ENTERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
...SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.9N 84.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM EST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI/BLAKE
000
ACPN50 PHFO 071400
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SAT NOV 7 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
$$
FOSTER
000
WTCA41 TJSJ 071237
TCPSP1
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL IDA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 12A
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL112009
700 AM EST SABADO 7 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
...IDA CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE AL NORTE...
A LAS 7 AM EST...1200 UTC...EL GOBIERNO DE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN HA
EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAN ISLAS GRAN CAYMAN.
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE
DENTRO DE 24 HORAS.
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA
PENINSULA DEL YUCATAN DESDE PUNTA ALLEN HACIA EL NORTE HASTA SAN
FELIPE Y PARA LA PROVINCIA CUBANA DE PINAR DEL RIO. UNA VIGILANCIA
DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36
HORAS.
INTERESES EN OTRAS PARTES DE LA PENINSULA DEL YUCATAN EN
MEXICO...OESTE DE CUBA Y LAS ISLAS CAYMAN DEBEN DE MONITOREAR EL
PROGRESO DE IDA.
PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...VERIFIQUE
LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
A LAS 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL IDA
ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.1
OESTE O CERCA DE 220 MILLAS...360 KM...AL SUROESTE DE LAS ISLAS GRAN
CAYMAN Y A 280 MILLAS...460 KM...AL SURESTE DE CONZUMEL MEXICO.
IDA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HORA. SE
ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE CON UN AUMENTO EN LA
VELOCIDAD DE TRANSLACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. EN LA
TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE IDA SE ACERCARA AL CANAL DE
YUCATAN EL DOMINGO.
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN A ALREDEDOR DE 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO
DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.
LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN FUERA DEL
CENTRO HASTA 35 MILLAS...55 KILOMETROS.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1002 MB...29.59 PULGADAS.
LA AMENAZA ASOCIADA CON IDA ESTA DISMINUYENDO SOBRE EL NORESTE DE
HONDURAS...DONDE SON POSIBLES DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA
ADICIONALES. EN LAS ISLAS CAYMAN TAMBIEN SON POSIBLES DE 1 A 2
PULGADAS DE LLUVIA ADICIONALES.
...RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 7:00 AM EST...
LOCALIZACION...17.4 NORTE 84.1 OESTE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE O 350 GRADOS A 8 MPH
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1002 MILIBARAS
LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE
HURACANES A LAS 1000 AM EST.
$$
PRONOSTICADORES CANGIALOSI/BLAKE/BRENNAN
000
AXNT20 KNHC 071200
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 84.1W AT 07/1200 UTC
OR ABOUT 220
MILES...360 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AND ABOUT 280
MILES...460 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO MOVING N AT 7 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
A 60 NM RADIUS OF 17.5N84W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 78W-85W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS JUST TO THE SE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH AND BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS DRAWING
MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE WAVE ITSELF. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 13N32W TO
16N37W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WEAK
LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WAVE
REMAINS IN AN AREA OF SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THUS NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OR SHOWER ACTIVITY.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N9W 5N20W 7N35W 7N52W 8N61W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-11N
BETWEEN 24W-33W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING SW OVER TEXAS AND SE INTO THE W ATLC COVERING
GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N GIVING MOST OF THE GULF EASTERLY FLOW.
THIS FLOW FILTERS INTO THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N92W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW
NEAR 19.5N95W TO 23N96W. THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH IS SUPPORTED
ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING
FROM NE MEXICO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO S MEXICO NEAR
VERACRUZ. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE FEATURES
ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 26N BETWEEN 87W-97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
S OF 25N E OF 87W. THE NE GULF REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE FOR THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING IS
TROPICAL STORM IDA. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE
DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N74W AND COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SW
ATLC AS WELL. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 77W S OF
14N TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N FROM 75W-79W. THE E
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING SHOWERS DOTS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN USHERED IN ON MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE CONTROLS THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 60W ANCHORED
ON A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM
24N69W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
NEAR 24N80W. FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N53W EXTENDING SW TO 24N67W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 32N52W TO 23N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 27N AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 54W AND THE COLD FRONT.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N
OF 26N W OF 52W. THE E ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AZORES. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING AN AXIS FROM
32N30W INTO THE TROPICS TO 15N48W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST
OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 36W/37W COVERING THE AREA FROM 16N-27N
BETWEEN 35W-43W.
$$
WALLACE
000
WTNT31 KNHC 071156
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
700 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009
...IDA CONTINUING NORTHWARD...
AT 7 AM EST...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE...AND FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WESTERN
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST OR ABOUT 220
MILES...360 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AND ABOUT 280
MILES...460 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA
WILL BE APPROACHING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
THE RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS DIMINISHING OVER
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...WHERE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
...SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.4N 84.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM EST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE/BRENNAN
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 071152
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SABADO 7 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS PARA LA
TORMENTA TROPICAL IDA...LOCALIZADA A 280 MILLAS AL SURESTE DE DE
COZUMEL MEXICO.
EN EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN
LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071143
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES
SOUTH OF THE GUATEMALA/COSTA RICA BORDER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
ABNT20 KNHC 071139
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IDA...LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071000
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT NOV 07 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.
...TROPICAL LOWS...
LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 12N91W ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB AND IS NOW
MOVING N SLOWLY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH IMMEDIATELY TO
ITS W WHICH IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING BOTH SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR
AND DRY AIR WHICH IS BEING ENTRAINED BY THE LOW. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TO A TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITHIN
THIS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS DISPLACED FROM THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER...BETWEEN 60 NM AND 180 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW.
TWO SHIP REPORTS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW REPORTED
WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE AT 0600 UTC...BUT THESE WINDS
SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS.
LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 12N116W IS ESTIMATED AT 1010 MB. THE
SURFACE LOW IS UNDER AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE...AND THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER DIFFLUENCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 180 NM NW
AND SE QUADRANTS OF THE LOW. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE UPPER JET TO ITS N SINKS
SOUTHWARD...PROVIDING 30 TO 40 KT OF SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 07N77W TO 11N87W TO 07N97W TO
12N115W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND
NEAR PANAMA WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN
78W AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN
90 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 101W.
...DISCUSSION...
N OF 20N...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 08N113W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING NE TO MANZANILLO...MEXICO AND CONTINUING N INTO
TEXAS. AN UPPER LOW LIES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
NEAR 29N113W AND IS APPROACHING THIS RIDGE AXIS FROM THE W. THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME THAT EXTENDED FROM THE ITCZ REGION TO
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS UPPER LOW THIS TIME YESTERDAY HAS BEEN
CUT OFF. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN...PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS OVER NW MAINLAND
MEXICO. THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE E AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION OF THE
UPPER LOW AT THE SURFACE WHERE A HIGH PRES RIDGE STEMMING FROM A
1032 MB HIGH NEAR 36N152W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
WATERS. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES OVER
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAS BROUGHT 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS OFF THE
W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A COLD FRONT BEARS DOWN ON THE HIGH PRES
SYSTEM FROM THE NW AND WEAKENS THE RIDGING. WHILE THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE IT CAN REACH FORECAST WATERS...LONG
PERIOD NW SWELL FROM THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO PUSH
INTO NW WATERS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASING TO 18 FT
OVER NW WATER THIS MORNING. HIGHEST SEAS WILL SHIFT E QUICKLY
TODAY ACROSS N WATERS...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL TRAIN
PROGRESSING SE.
S OF 20N...
ASIDE FROM THE LOW PRES SYSTEMS DESCRIBED ABOVE AND THE GAP
WINDS DESCRIBED BELOW...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE OF NOTE. 20 TO 25 KT TRADES ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO
BETWEEN 10N AND 20N W OF 127W...WITH A SMALL AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 12N116W. THE AREA
OF STRONGEST TRADE WINDS WILL SHIFT S IN RESPONSE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED REORGANIZATION OF THE HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM LIES NEAR 10N108W. ACCORDING
TO THE 0504 ASCAT PASS...THE LOW HAS A SMALL AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT
WINDS WITHIN 90 NM IN ITS N QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION CAN CURRENTLY BE FOUND WITHIN 90 NM NW AND 60
NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF THE LOW WHICH NOW LIES UNDER THE
ANTICYCLONE IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR CONVECTION. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BECOME MORE HOSTILE FOR THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...AND THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH LITTLE FANFARE.
GAP WINDS...
A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 0324 UTC SHOWED WINDS IN THE 30 TO 33
KT RANGE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONSIDERING THE PASS
OMITTED A PORTION OF THE AREA BELIEVED TO HAVE THE STRONGEST
WINDS AND THE FACT THAT ASCAT GENERALLY RUNS LOW WITH WINDS NEAR
GALE FORCE AND HIGHER...THERE IS LIKELY STILL A GALE HERE THAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF LOW PRES IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THE
PERSISTENT LOW PRES NEAR 12N91W THAT IS NOW DRIFTING N...AND
TROPICAL STORM IDA NOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF HONDURAS AND
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHEN. ALL OF THESE FACTORS
WILL INFLUENCE THE WIND...OR LACK OF WIND...IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DEPENDING ON THE ORIENTATION
OF THE LOW PRES CENTERS N OF THE AREA...ANOTHER N SURGE MAY
OCCUR AS EARLY AS SUN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
$$
SCHAUER
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 070916 CCA
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP252009
715 PM CHST SAT NOV 7 2009
CORRECTED MOVEMENT IN 5TH PARAGRAPH
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W DRIFTING NORTHWEST...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 25W WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.5 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 730 MILES WEST OF WAKE ISLAND...760 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SAIPAN AND 885 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED
TO RECURVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AND TD 25W MAY BRIEFLY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
ON SUNDAY.
REPEATING THE 700 PM POSITION...LATITUDE 21.1 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 155.5 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM SUNDAY MORNING.
$$
MIDDLEBROOKE
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 070915
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP252009
715 PM CHST SAT NOV 7 2009
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W DRIFTING NORTHWEST...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 25W WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.5 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 730 MILES WEST OF WAKE ISLAND...760 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SAIPAN AND 885 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED
TO RECURVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AND TD 25W MAY BRIEFLY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
ON SUNDAY.
REPEATING THE 700 PM POSITION...LATITUDE 21.1 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 155.5 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM SUNDAY MORNING.
$$
MIDDLEBROOKE
000
WTCA41 TJSJ 070907
TCPSP1
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL IDA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 12 NWS
TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL112009
400 AM EST SABADO 7 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
...IDA SSE FORTALECE...VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EMITIERON
PARA PORCIONES DE LA PENINSULA DEL YUCATAN Y EL OESTE DE CUBA...
A LAS 4 AM EST...0900 UTC...EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA EMITIDO UNA
VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA PENINSULA DEL YUCATAN DESDE
PUNTA ALLEN HACIA EL NORTE HASTA SAN FELIPE. UNA VIGILANCIA DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON
POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36
HORAS.
A LAS 4 AM EST...EL GOBIERNO DE CUBA HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA PROVIDENCIA DE PINAR DEL RIO.
INTERESES EN OTRAS PARTES DE LA PENINSULA DEL YUCATAN DE
MEXICO...OESTE CUBA Y LAS ISLAS CAYMAN DEBEN DE MONITOREAR EL
PROGRESO DE IDA.
PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...VERIFIQUE
LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
A LAS 4 AM EST...0900 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL IDA
ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.1
OESTE O CERCA DE 135 MILLAS...215 KM...AL NOROESTE DE LIMON HONDURAS
Y A 300 MILLAS...480 KM...SURESTE DE CONZUMEL MEXICO.
IDA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KM/HORA. SE
ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE CON UN AUMENTO EN LA
VELOCIDAD DE TRANSLACION DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. EN LA
TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE IDA SE ACERCARA AL CANAL DE
YUCATAN EL DOMINGO.
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO A ALREDEDOR DE 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO
DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.
LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN FUERA DEL
CENTRO HASTA 35 MILLAS...55 KILOMETROS.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1002 MB...29.59 PULGADAS.
LA AMENAZA ASOCIADA CON IDA ESTA DISMINUYENDO SOBRE EL NORTE DE
HONDURAS...DONDE SON POSIBLES DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA
ADICIONALES. EN LAS ISLAS CAYMAN TAMBIEN SON POSIBLES SON POSIBLES
DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA ADICIONALES.
...RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 4 AM EST...
LOCALIZACION...17.1 NORTE 84.1 OESTE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE O 350 GRADOS A 8 MPH
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1002 MILIBARAS
UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE
HURACANES A LAS 7 AM EST SEGUIDA POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS
10 AM EST.
$$
PRONOSTICADORES BRENNAN
000
WTNT31 KNHC 070835
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
400 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009
...IDA STRENGTHENING...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA...
AT 4 AM EST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN
NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 4 AM EST...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WESTERN
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST OR ABOUT 135
MILES...215 KM...NORTHEAST OF LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT 300 MILES...
480 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA
WILL BE APPROACHING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
THE RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS DIMINISHING OVER
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...WHERE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
...SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.1N 84.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM EST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
000
WTNT21 KNHC 070834
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
0900 UTC SAT NOV 07 2009
AT 4 AM EST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN
NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 4 AM EST...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WESTERN
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 84.1W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 84.1W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 84.0W
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.1N 84.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.5N 85.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.0N 86.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 87.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 26.5N 88.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 28.0N 86.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 27.0N 85.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 84.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
000
ACPN50 PHFO 070800
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST FRI NOV 6 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
$$
FOSTER
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 070643
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
100 AM EST SABADO 7 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS PARA LA
DEPRESION TROPICAL IDA...LOCALIZADA A 110 MILLAS AL ESTE-NORESTE DE
DE LIMON HONDURAS.
EN EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN
LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 070636
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP252009
430 PM CHST SAT NOV 7 2009
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W HAS DEVELOPED WEST OF WAKE ISLAND...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 25W WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.7 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 715 MILES WEST OF WAKE ISLAND...765 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SAIPAN AND 880 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. IT IS
EXPECTED TO RECURVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AND TD 25W MAY BRIEFLY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
ON SUNDAY.
REPEATING THE 100 PM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 20.8 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 155.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.
$$
MIDDLEBROOKE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 070544
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.2N 84.0W AT 07/0300
UTC OR ABOUT 95 NM ENE OF LIMON HONDURAS MOVING N AT 6 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. IDA HAS RE-EMERGED INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N-17N BETWEEN 83W-85W AND FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 80W-85W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS JUST TO THE SE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH AND BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH DRAWING MOISTURE
AWAY FROM THE WAVE ITSELF. ANY CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WEAK LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IT
IS IN AN AREA OF SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THUS NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
52W-56W.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 6N22W 7N34W 6N43W 8N55W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 10W-14W AND FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 22W-33W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SW AND SE COVERING THE W ATLC AND GULF
OF MEXICO GIVING MOST OF THE GULF NE TO E FLOW. THIS FLOW
FILTERS INTO THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N93W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR
19N95W TO 23N96W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM NE MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO TO 19N95W.
THE SURFACE FEATURES ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N BETWEEN 88W-97W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING WESTWARD WITHIN 60 NM
ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA E OF 88W.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE FOR THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT IS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE
DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N74W AND COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W
ATLC AS WELL. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 77W/78W S
OF 13N TO INLAND OVER E PANAMA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N FROM 73W-79W. THE E
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING SHOWERS DOTS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN USHERED IN ON MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE CONTROLS THE W ATLC W OF 65W ANCHORED ON A 1027
MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 26N65W INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W.
FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N56W EXTENDING SW TO 26N63W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 30N58W TO 22N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N62W TO BEYOND 32N54W. THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF
26N W OF 52W. THE E ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AZORES. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING AN AXIS FROM
32N30W INTO THE TROPICS TO 16N51W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST
OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF
THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 34W COVERING
THE AREA FROM 16N-26N BETWEEN 36W-44W.
$$
WALLACE
000
ABNT20 KNHC 070534
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IDA...LOCATED ABOUT 110 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF LIMON
HONDURAS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 070531
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES
SOUTH OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070328
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT NOV 07 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.
...TROPICAL LOWS...
.LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 12N91W ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB AND IS
NOW MOVING SLOWLY N IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH IMMEDIATELY
TO ITS W WHICH IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING BOTH SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 13N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W.
.LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 13N117W ESTIMATED AT 1010 MB. THE
SURFACE LOW IS UNDER AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AND THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER DIFFLUENCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION...BUT OVERALL
CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECREASING THE PAST FEW HOURS. CURRENTLY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF
13N117W.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 11N85W TO 12N91W TO 08N98W TO
13N116W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
07N105W TO 11N110W.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 11N112W WITH A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE SHIFTING NE AND NOW CRESTING NEAR 21N107W. A TROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO A SHARP CREST AT
11N127W WITH ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC
CENTER TO 06N98W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED ITCZ
CONVECTION EARLIER BETWEEN 132W AND 137W WITH THE DEBRIS STILL
SPREADING NE ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THIS TROPICAL RIDGE...
ROUGHLY WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 08N136W TO 18N115W.
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM EARLIER CONVECTION NEAR A SURFACE LOW UNDER
THE UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CENTER...DESCRIBED ABOVE...REMAINS WITHIN
120 NM OF 15N115W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 104W AND 111W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE
SPREADING S BUT EVAPORATING ALONG 03N.
AN UPPER RIDGE IS NOW AMPLIFYING NE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
ALONG 27N140W TO 32N127W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NEAR 30N118W WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 22N123W. DENSE UPPER MOISTURE IS
OBSERVED OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF THIS CYCLONE AND IS SPREADING
NE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.
ELSEWHERE THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR DRY N OF 20N W OF 117W.
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ALONG EASTERN OLD MEXICO INTO A SMALL
MID TO UPPER CYCLONE AT 19N96W WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING S TO A
BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 08N93W. THIS CYCLONE HAS DEEPENED
WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 19.5N95W AND
ANALYZED AT 1010 MB. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
ALONG THE ITCZ JUST S OF THIS TROUGH BASE...BETWEEN 94W AND 100W
WITH MOST OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE EVAPORATING QUICKLY AS UPPER
DRY AIR IS SWEEPING S ACROSS OLD MEXICO AND OVER THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC N OF 09N BETWEEN 92W AND 107W.
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N74W
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO NEAR 13N83W. SOME CONVECTION WAS
ENHANCED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA BUT IS DISSIPATING
AND THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING W AND NW ALONG THE UPPER
RIDGE.
AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE IS BRIDGING SEVERAL DISSIPATING
FRONTAL TROUGHS OVER THE NW WATERS AND CRESTING NEAR 15N110W.
ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED N WINDS ARE ONLY AT 15-20 KT IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTS...THE FRONTS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY NW SWELLS THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD TO NEAR 18 FT LATE SAT ALONG 30N BETWEEN 125W
AND 135W.
GAP WINDS...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT DIMINISHING BELOW GALE AFTER SUNRISE SAT
MORNING. A RECENT SHIP REPORT OF 50 KT...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SURFACE LOW PRES IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...RESULTED IN
RAISING THE INITIAL CONDITIONS TO 30 TO 45 KT. UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES IN THE FORECAST AS THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF LOW
PRES IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THE PERSISTENT LOW PRES NEAR
12N91W THAT IS NOW DRIFTING N...AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA IS
NOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF HONDURAS AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHEN. DEPENDING ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE
LOW PRES CENTERS N OF THE AREA...ANOTHER N SURGE MAY OCCUR AS
EARLY AS SUN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OR THE LOW POSITIONS MAY
ACTUALLY IMPEDE THE N FLOW THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
$$
NELSON
000
WTNT31 KNHC 070233
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 PM EST FRI NOV 06 2009
...IDA MOVING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM HONDURAS...COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM SOON...
INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT
110 MILES...175 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF LIMON HONDURAS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK...IDA IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND IDA COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
THE RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS DIMINISHING OVER
NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...WHERE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
...SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.2N 84.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 AM EST.
$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN
000
WTNT21 KNHC 070232
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
0300 UTC SAT NOV 07 2009
INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 84.0W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 84.0W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 83.9W
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.1N 84.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.4N 84.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.7N 85.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.4N 86.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.5N 88.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 27.5N 87.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 26.5N 85.6W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 84.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
ACPN50 PHFO 070142
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST FRI NOV 6 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
$$
BIRCHARD
000
AXNT20 KNHC 062355
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 06 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 83.9W AT 06/2100
UTC OR ABOUT 55 NM NW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/
HONDURAS BORDER MOVING N AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
LOCATED N OF THE CENTER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-22N
BETWEEN 80W-87W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE
WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN 28W-41W AND A BROAD AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE
VORTICITY S OF 13N BETWEEN 25W-35W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-15N BETWEEN 27W-36W AND IS LARGELY
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED E OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE
WAVE CONTINUES MOVING BENEATH DRY NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND THUS
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ARE N OF 13N
BETWEEN 52W-57W.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 9N30W 9N33W 11N53W 11N56W
TO NE VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 24W-28W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N82W WITH
NE SURFACE FLOW OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THIS EVENING.
THIS NELY FLOW FILTERS INTO THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 06/2100 UTC EXTENDS FROM 18N93W TO
22N96W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST SOUTHWARD
ALONG 97W AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. THE SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 26N W OF 90W.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IS BEING ADVECTED NE AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N74W. THIS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS ALSO BRINGING MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND SE GULF WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS S OF 25N BETWEEN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND 90W.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IDA THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IDA
IS ADVECTING N-NE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA INTO
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS FLOW IS ANCHORED ON AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 14N74W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 77W
FROM JAMAICA TO 10N. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH
PARTIAL ENHANCEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. EAST OF THE UPPER HIGH...
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE N-NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS
USHERED IN ON 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE CONTROLS THE W ATLC W OF 67W ANCHORED ON A 1028
MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N82W. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE NW
BAHAMAS UNDER BRISK NE SURFACE WINDS. FARTHER EAST...A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N60W AND EXTENDS SW TO
26N67W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH APPEARS TO BE EAST OF THE FRONT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 24N BETWEEN 52W-60W. THIS AREA IS
LOCATED WITHIN A WEAKNESS OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC REMAINING
N OF 26N. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE AZORES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN
ATLC AND EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS FROM 28N42W TO 13N58W IN THE
TROPICAL NORTH ATLC. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE LOCATED EAST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF THE
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 32W. THE AREA
COVERS FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 26W-41W.
$$
HUFFMAN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 062345
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 062339
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
700 PM EST VIERNES 6 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS PARA LA
DEPRESION TROPICAL IDA...LOCALIZADA TIERRA ADENTRO A 65 MILLAS AL
OESTE DE CABO GRACIAS A DIOS EN LA FRONTERA DE NICARAGUA Y HONDURAS.
EN EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN
LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BERG
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABNT20 KNHC 062338
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IDA...LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES NORTHWEST OF CABO GRACIAS
A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
ACPN50 PHFO 062204 RRA
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST FRI NOV 6 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
$$
BIRCHARD
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062157
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI NOV 06 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.
...TROPICAL LOWS...
.LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 12N92W ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB AND IS
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM A LARGE MID TO UPPER TROUGH
IMMEDIATELY TO ITS W. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF 12.5N92W.
.LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 14N115.5W ESTIMATED AT 1010 MB. THE
SURFACE LOW IS UNDER AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AND THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER DIFFLUENCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION BUT OVERALL
CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECREASING THE PAST FEW HOURS. CURRENTLY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF 13N116W.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 13N88W TO 07N99W TO 13N115W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N104W TO 11N110W.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N117W WITH A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE SHIFTING NE AND NOW CRESTING NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA. A TROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE TO A SHARP CREST AT 12N129W WITH ANOTHER RIDGE
EXTENDING SE FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER TO 05N98W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 130W AND 137W WITH
THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED NE ALONG THE W PERIPHERY
OF THIS TROPICAL RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
LINE 09N135W TO 18N114W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
NEAR A SURFACE LOW UNDER THE UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CENTER...
DESCRIBED ABOVE...REMAINS WITHIN 150 NM OF 14N115W. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN
103W AND 112W WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADING S BUT
EVAPORATING ALONG 03N.
AN UPPER RIDGE IS NOW AMPLIFYING NE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
ALONG 27N140W TO 30N126W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS NEAR 29N118W WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 22N127W. DENSE UPPER MOISTURE IS
OBSERVED OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF THIS CYCLONE AND IS SPREADING
NE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEW MEXICO. ELSEWHERE THE
UPPER LEVELS APPEAR DRY N OF 20N W OF 120W.
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S ALONG EASTERN OLD MEXICO INTO A SMALL
MID TO UPPER CYCLONE AT 19N95W WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING S TO A
BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 08N93W. THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE
DEEPENING WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER THE SW BAY OF
CAMPECHE. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ALONG THE
ITCZ JUST E OF THIS TROUGH...BETWEEN 92W AND 100W WITH MOST OF
THE DEBRIS MOISTURE EVAPORATING QUICKLY AS UPPER DRY AIR IS
SWEEPING S ACROSS OLD MEXICO AND OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC N OF
10N BETWEEN 96W AND 108W.
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N74W
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO NEAR 10N87W. SOME CONVECTION WAS
ENHANCED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA BUT IS DISSIPATING
AND THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING W AND NW ALONG THE UPPER
RIDGE.
AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE IS BRIDGING SEVERAL FRONTAL TROUGHS
OVER THE NW WATERS AND CRESTING NEAR 15N110W. ALTHOUGH
ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE ONLY 15-20 KT THE FRONTS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY
NW SWELLS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO NEAR 18 FT LATE SAT
ALONG 30N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W.
GAP WINDS...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT DIMINISHING BELOW GALE AFTER SUNRISE SAT
MORNING. UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN THE FORECAST AS LOW PRES MAY
BE DEVELOPING N OF THE AREA IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THE
PERSISTENT LOW PRES NEAR 12N92W MAY DRIFT N...AND TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IDA IS NOW MOVING BACK OVER WATER AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHEN. DEPENDING ON THE ORIENTATION OF
THE LOW PRES CENTERS N OF THE AREA...ANOTHER N SURGE MAY OCCUR
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OR THE LOW POSITIONS MAY ACTUALLY
IMPEDE THE N FLOW THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
$$
NELSON
000
WTNT31 KNHC 062045
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
400 PM EST FRI NOV 06 2009
...IDA EMERGES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN...
INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...110 KM...NORTHWEST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST EXPECTED TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IDA SHOULD APPROACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO LATE
SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND IDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
THE RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS DIMINISHING OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
TOTALS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
IDA MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ON SATURDAY.
...SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.7N 83.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 PM EST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTNT21 KNHC 062045
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
2100 UTC FRI NOV 06 2009
INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 83.9W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 83.9W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 83.9W
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.7N 84.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.9N 84.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.1N 85.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.6N 86.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.5N 88.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 27.5N 87.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 27.5N 85.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 83.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 061803
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
100 PM EST VIERNES 6 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS PARA LA
RECIEN DEGRADADA DEPRESION TROPICAL IDA...LOCALIZADA TIERRA ADENTRO
A 55 MILLAS AL OESTE DE CABO GRACIAS A DIOS EN LA FRONTERA DE
NICARAGUA Y HONDURAS.
EN EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN
LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
AXNT20 KNHC 061741
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 06 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA AT 06/1500 UTC IS NEAR
15.0N 84.0W...OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 85 KM...WEST OF CABO GRACIAS
A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. IDA IS MOVING NORTH 6
KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER E HONDURAS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM
16N-20N BETWEEN 81W-86W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING
W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS ON AN SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
MAXIMUM. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N
BETWEEN 27W-35W.
A WEAK ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING W AT 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 7N20W 9N30W 11N53W TO
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N64W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 16W-27W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 27W-35W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA NEAR 39N81W.
ANOTHER 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR
25N102W. NE-E SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-35 KT OVER THE SW GULF S OF 21N W OF
94W. ELSEWHERE...THE E GULF HAS 20-25 KT WINDS WHILE THE NW GULF
HAS ONLY 10 KT WINDS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE S GULF S
OF 26N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 19N96W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NE OF THE CENTER IS
ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF S OF 28N. EXPECT..SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION TO REMAIN OVER THE SW GULF AND YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA IS JUST INLAND OVER E HONDURAS. SEE
ABOVE. TRADEWINDS ARE BASICALLY 10-15 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 76W-81W.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N COAST OF VENEZUELA
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 68W-74W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N76W.
ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH
ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW FROM IDA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 73W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT ...CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AND CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N61W
TO 26N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT.
A LARGE 1033 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES AT
38N28W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 50W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
AT 22N46W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 38W-43W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N28W.
OVER THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST
OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 8N20W.
$$
FORMOSA
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061733
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST FRI NOV 6 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD
OR NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAVE DIMINISHED AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
ABNT20 KNHC 061731
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IDA...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 55 MILES WEST OF CABO GRACIAS
A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061519
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI NOV 06 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
...TROPICAL LOWS...
LOW PRESSURE IS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 11N92W WITH AN ESTIMATED
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB. THE SYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE
SYSTEM OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. CURRENTLY WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION CAN ONLY BE FOUND WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE STATIONARY
AND NOT DEVELOP.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...09N84W TO
09N105W TO 10N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS EAST OF 79W FROM 04N TO 08N. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N103W TO 11N110W.
...DISCUSSION...
TWO TROUGHS DOMINATE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN WITH A
TROUGH AXIS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD TO 120W AT 23N.
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST SLOWLY WITH A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION REACHING NORTHWESTERN MEXICO EARLY SATURDAY AND WEST
TEXAS EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT IS ABSORBED BY THE
WESTERLIES SUNDAY. OVERCAST MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED RAIN ARE NORTH OF 25N EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
OVER MEXICO WEST OF 110W.
THE OTHER TROUGH IS A MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC TO THE ITCZ NEAR 95W. THE TROUGH AXIS IS RATHER
SHARP WITH DRY AND CLOUD FREE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITHIN 900
NM WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND MOIST UPPER FLOW WITH MULTI LEVEL
CLOUDS WITHIN 360 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL LOW MENTIONED ABOVE IS BEING
SHEARED BY THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED
IN THE LAST 12 HOURS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS COVERED BY BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 17N WEST OF 112W. ELSEWHERE BESIDES THE
LOW MENTIONED ABOVE A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE.
STRONG HIGH PRES ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE GALE FORCE
WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TODAY AND THROUGH
SATURDAY AT LESS THAN GALE FORCE.
$$
LL
000
WTCA41 TJSJ 061507
TCPSP1
BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL IDA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 9
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 AM EST VIERNES 6 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
...IDA SOBRE EL ESTE DE HONDURAS...
A LAS 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...EL GOBIERNO DE HONDURAS HA
DISCONTINUADO LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA DE
HONDURAS DESDE LA FRONTERA DE NICARAGUA Y HONDURAS HASTA LIMON.
INTERESES EN OTRAS PARTES DE HONDURAS DEBEN DE MONITOREAR EL
PROGRESO DE IDA.
PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...VERIFIQUE
LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
A LA 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL IDA
ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 15.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.0
OESTE O CERCA DE 55 MILLAS...85 KM...AL SUROESTE DE CABO GRACIAS A
DIOS EN LA FRONTERA DE NICARAGUA Y HONDURAS.
LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE CERCA DE 7 MPH...11
KM/HORA. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE HOY...CON UN GIRO
HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE MANANA. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL
CENTRO DE IDA SE MOVERA A TRAVES DEL ESTE DE HONDURAS HOY Y
REAPAREZCA SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE ESTA NOCHE.
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO A ALREDEDOR DE 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA POCO CAMBIO EN LA
INTENSIDAD HOY. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES POSIBLE DESPUES QUE IDA
ESTE SOBRE AGUA.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS.
LA AMENAZA ASOCIADA CON IDA ESTA DISMINUYENDO SOBRE EL ESTE DE
NICARAGUA Y EL ESTE DE HONDURAS. SE ESPERA QUE IDA PRODUZCA
CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA ADICIONALES DE 1 A 2 PULGADAS SOBRE EL ESTE DE
HONDURAS CON ALGUNOS TOTALES MAYORES EN AREAS AISLADAS DE TERRENO
MAS ALTO. ESTOS AGUACEROS PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y
DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO QUE PUEDEN AMENAZAR VIDAS. LOS AGUACEROS
ASOCIADOS CON IDA PUEDEN COMENZAR A AFECTAR LAS PORCIONES DEL ESTE
DE LA PENINSULA DEL YUCATAN EL SABADO.
...RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 10 AM EST...
LOCALIZACION...15.0 NORTE 84.0 OESTE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE O 360 GRADOS A 7 MPH
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1007 MILIBARAS
UNA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A
LAS 4 PM EST.
$$
PRONOSTICADORES BLAKE/FRANKLIN
000
WTNT21 KNHC 061453
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1500 UTC FRI NOV 06 2009
AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM
THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TO LIMON.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 84.0W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 84.0W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 84.0W
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.7N 84.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.8N 84.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.9N 85.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.1N 85.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.5N 87.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 25.0N 87.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 27.0N 86.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 84.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
000
WTNT31 KNHC 061453
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 AM EST FRI NOV 06 2009
...IDA MOVING OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...
AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM
THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TO LIMON.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT
55 MILES... 85 KM...WEST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST EXPECTED TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA SHOULD MOVE ACROSS EASTERN HONDURAS TODAY
AND EMERGE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY...BUT SOME
RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
THE RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS DIMINISHING OVER EASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS. IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN HONDURAS
WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH IDEA MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SATURDAY.
...SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.0N 84.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM EST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
000
WTNT21 KNHC 061453
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1500 UTC FRI NOV 06 2009
AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM
THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TO LIMON.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 84.0W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 84.0W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 84.0W
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.7N 84.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.8N 84.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.9N 85.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.1N 85.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.5N 87.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 25.0N 87.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 27.0N 86.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 84.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
000
WTNT31 KNHC 061453
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 AM EST FRI NOV 06 2009
...IDA MOVING OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...
AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM
THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER TO LIMON.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT
55 MILES... 85 KM...WEST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST EXPECTED TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA SHOULD MOVE ACROSS EASTERN HONDURAS TODAY
AND EMERGE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY...BUT SOME
RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
THE RAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS DIMINISHING OVER EASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS. IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN HONDURAS
WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH IDEA MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SATURDAY.
...SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.0N 84.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM EST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
000
ACPN50 PHFO 061330
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST FRI NOV 6 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
$$
RYSHKO
000
AXNT20 KNHC 061202
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 06 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA AT 06/1200 UTC IS NEAR
14.6N 84.2W...OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. IDA IS
MOVING NORTH 5 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EXPECT LOTS OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. STRONG SHOWERS COVER THE AREA
FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF
13N TO THE WEST OF 78W. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PATTERN IS SHEARING SOME OF THE CELLS OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NORTHERN
COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE
WEST OF 69W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W TO THE SOUTH
OF 13N. PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR THIS WAVE IS IN THE ITCZ.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED ALONG 41W/42W TO THE
SOUTH OF 16N. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS NEAR THIS WAVE.
...THE ITCZ...
FROM 10N13W TO 7N24W TO 10N40W 11N52W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N62W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN 15W AND 40W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 10N TO 16N.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES
THIS TROUGH.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO
THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 85W. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GALE-FORCE WIND
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE IN COLOMBIA TO THE NORTH OF 6N...IN
AN AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS UNDER UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N63W DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN
62W AND 64W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 70W/71W TO THE SOUTH OF
17N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM VENEZUELA TO 22N BETWEEN
66W AND 70W ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
STRETCHES FROM 21N63W DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N68W 23N71W TO THE
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N72W.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.A.
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO
26N73W. CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THIS TROUGH COVERS THE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 60W. THIS TROUGH GIVES A REINFORCING
SHOT OF ENERGY TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT WHOSE
SOUTHERNMOST POINT REACHES 31N64W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
FROM 31N64W TO 27N70W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND...INTO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE FROM 23N63W TO 26N60W TO 31N57W. ONE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N45W. A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER IS
NEAR 27N28W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW HAS PERSISTED FOR
AT LEAST 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF
60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 298N TO 31N BETWEEN 41W
AND 43W.
$$
MT
000
WTCA41 TJSJ 061201
TCPSP1
BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL IDA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 8A
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL112009
700 AM EST VIERNES 6 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
...IDA ACERCANDOSE DE LA FRONTERA DE NICARAGUA Y HONDURAS...
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA
NORESTE DE HONDURAS DESDE LIMON HACIA EL ESTE HASTA LA FRONTERA DE
HONDURAS Y NICARAGUA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA
QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO
VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS.
INTERESES EN OTRAS PARTES DE HONDURAS DEBEN DE MONITOREAR EL
PROGRESO DE IDA.
PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...VERIFIQUE
LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
A LA 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL IDA
ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.2
OESTE O CERCA DE 65 MILLAS...105 KM...AL SUROESTE DE CABO GRACIAS A
DIOS EN LA FRONTERA DE NICARAGUA Y HONDURAS.
LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE CERCA DE 6 MPH...10
KM/HORA. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE CON UN AUMENTO LEVE
EN LA VELOCIDAD DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE IDA SE MOVERA A TRAVES DEL ESTE DE
HONDURAS HOY Y REAPAREZCA SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE TEMPRANO
EL SABADO.
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO A ALREDEDOR DE 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA DEBILITAMIENTO ADICIONAL
HOY A MEDIDA QUE IDA SE MUEVE SOBRE TIERRA. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES
POSIBLE DESPUES QUE IDA REAPAREZCA SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE
EL SABADO.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1005 MB...29.68 PULGADAS.
SE ESPERA QUE IDA PRODUZCA UN TOTAL DE ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 5
A 7 A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS ESTE DE HONDURAS Y NICARAGUA...Y LAS
ISLAS CERCANAS DE NICARAGUA CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE 12 PULGADAS ES
POSIBLE. ACUMULACIONES MAXIMAS DE LLUVIA DE 15 A 20 PULGADAS SON
POSIBLES SOBRE REGIONES DE TERRENO ELEVADO EN HONDURAS Y NICARAGUA.
ESTOS AGUACEROS PUEDEN PRODUCIR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y
DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO QUE AMENAZEN VIDAS.
...RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 7 AM EST...
LOCALIZACION...14.6 NORTE 84.2 OESTE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE O 350 GRADOS A 6 MPH
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1005 MILIBARES
UNA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A
LAS 10 AM EST.
$$
PRONOSTICADORES CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN/BLAKE
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061157
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST FRI NOV 6 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GRADUALLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 061157
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
700 AM EST VIERNES 6 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS PARA LA
RECIEN DEGRADADA DEPRESION TROPICAL IDA...LOCALIZADA A 65 MILLAS AL
OESTE-SUROESTE DE CABO GRACIAS A DIOS EN LA FRONTERA DE NICARAGUA Y
HONDURAS.
EN EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN
LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABNT20 KNHC 061151
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IDA...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 65 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTNT31 KNHC 061148
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
700 AM EST FRI NOV 06 2009
...IDA APPROACHING THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...105 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN HONDURAS TODAY
AND EMERGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE CENTER OF
IDA REMAINS OVER LAND. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AFTER IDA
EMERGES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...AND THE
ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER REGIONS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN IN HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
...SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 84.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM EST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN/BLAKE
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061001
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI NOV 06 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0845 UTC.
...TROPICAL LOWS...
LOW PRES IS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 11N92W ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB.
THE SYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. CONVECTION
HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN ONLY BE FOUND
WITHIN 90 NM N QUADRANT.
1010 MB LOW PRES IS NEAR 13N114W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 180 NM W QUADRANT AND SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM N AND
60 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM CURRENTLY
LIES UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS PROVIDING A
DIFFLUENT UPPER ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. OVER THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS...THE LOW WILL ENCOUNTER 30-40 KT WESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 12N86W TO 08N110W TO 12N115W TO
09N125W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 75
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 99W AND 108W.
...DISCUSSION...
N OF 20N...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N112W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO
THE AZ/NM BORDER WITH OLD MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N121W IS
APPROACHING THIS RIDGE FROM THE W. SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS A THINNING MOISTURE PLUM EXTENDING FROM THE ITCZ
NEAR 140W NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FOUND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 30N118W TO
26N119W. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PASS E INTO MEXICO
AND THE SW U.S. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE TODAY OVER FORECAST
WATERS AS THE LOW BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME. THE UPPER PATTERN IS AMPLIFIED OVER THE REST OF N WATERS.
THIS IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WHERE A 1022 MB HIGH PRES
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND AT 27N124W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
HIGH AND LOW PRES OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAS BROUGHT 20 TO
25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS OFF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE
WINDS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE HIGH PRES
REORGANIZES FARTHER W AS A RESULT OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
BEARING DOWN ON IT FROM THE NW. WHILE THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE IT CAN REACH FORECAST WATERS...LONG PERIOD NW
SWELL FROM THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO NW WATERS BY SAT WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASING TO 18 FT OVER NW AND N
CENTRAL WATERS.
S OF 20N...
ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES SYSTEMS AND THE GAP WINDS
DESCRIBED BELOW...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
OF NOTE. THE TRADES ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO BETWEEN 10N AND 20N
W OF 128W...WITH A SMALL AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAKENING LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 10N134W. THE AREA OF
TRADES WILL SHIFT W IN RESPONSE TO THE REORGANIZATION OF THE
HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.
GAP WINDS...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH FRI DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FRI NIGHT. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER GALE N
OF THE AREA IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND DEPENDING ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE GALE CENTER IT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER
N SURGE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OR ACTUALLY IMPEDE N FLOW
INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE THE
FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FUTURE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE IDA.
$$
SCHAUER
000
WTCA41 TJSJ 060841
TCPSP1
BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL IDA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL112009
400 AM EST VIERNES 6 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
...IDA CERCA DE LA FRONTERA DE NICARAGUA Y HONDURAS...CONTINUA
PRODUCIENDO LLUVIA FUERTE...
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA
NORESTE DE HONDURAS DESDE LIMON HACIA EL ESTE HASTA LA FRONTERA DE
HONDURAS Y NICARAGUA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA
QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO
VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS.
INTERESES EN OTRAS PARTES DE HONDURAS DEBEN DE MONITOREAR EL
PROGRESO DE IDA.
PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...VERIFIQUE
LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
A LA 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL IDA
ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.1
OESTE O CERCA DE 75 MILLAS...120 KM...AL SUROESTE DE CABO GRACIAS A
DIOS EN LA FRONTERA DE NICARAGUA Y HONDURAS.
LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE CERCA DE 6 MPH...10
KM/HORA. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE CON UN AUMENTO LEVE
EN LA VELOCIDAD DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE IDA SE MOVERA A TRAVES DEL ESTE DE
HONDURAS HOY Y REAPAREZCA SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE TEMPRANO
EL SABADO.
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO A ALREDEDOR DE 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA DEBILITAMIENTO ADICIONAL
HOY A MEDIDA QUE IDA SE MUEVE SOBRE TIERRA. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES
POSIBLE DESPUES QUE IDA REAPAREZCA SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE
EL SABADO.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1005 MB...29.68 PULGADAS.
SE ESPERA QUE IDA PRODUZCA UN TOTAL DE ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 5
A 7 A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS ESTE DE HONDURAS Y NICARAGUA...Y LAS
ISLAS CERCANAS DE NICARAGUA CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE 12 PULGADAS ES
POSIBLE. ACUMULACIONES MAXIMAS DE LLUVIA DE 15 A 20 PULGADAS SON
POSIBLES SOBRE REGIONES DE TERRENO ELEVADO EN HONDURAS Y NICARAGUA.
ESTOS AGUACEROS PUEDEN PRODUCIR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y
DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO QUE AMENAZEN VIDAS.
...RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 400 AM
EST...LOCALIZACION...14.4 NORTE 84.1 OESTE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE-NOROESTE O 350 GRADOS A 6 MPH
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1005 MILIBARES
UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE
HURACANES A LAS 700 AM EST SEGUIDO POR UNA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A
LAS 1000 AM EST.
$$
PRONOSTICADORES CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
000
WTNT21 KNHC 060831
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
0900 UTC FRI NOV 06 2009
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 84.1W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 84.1W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 84.0W
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.2N 84.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.4N 84.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.4N 84.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.7N 85.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.5N 86.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 24.0N 87.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 27.0N 86.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 84.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
000
WTNT31 KNHC 060831
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
400 AM EST FRI NOV 06 2009
...IDA NEARING THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...STILL
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...120 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN HONDURAS TODAY
AND EMERGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE CENTER OF
IDA REMAINS OVER LAND. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AFTER IDA
EMERGES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...AND THE
ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER REGIONS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN IN HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
...SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.4N 84.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM EST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
000
WTNT21 KNHC 060831
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
0900 UTC FRI NOV 06 2009
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 84.1W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 84.1W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 84.0W
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.2N 84.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.4N 84.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.4N 84.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.7N 85.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.5N 86.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 24.0N 87.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 27.0N 86.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 84.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
000
WTNT31 KNHC 060831
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
400 AM EST FRI NOV 06 2009
...IDA NEARING THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...STILL
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...120 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN HONDURAS TODAY
AND EMERGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE CENTER OF
IDA REMAINS OVER LAND. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AFTER IDA
EMERGES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...AND THE
ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER REGIONS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN IN HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
...SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.4N 84.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM EST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
000
ACPN50 PHFO 060730
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST THU NOV 5 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
$$
RYSHKO
000
AXNT20 KNHC 060604
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 06 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA AT 06/0600 UTC IS NEAR
14.1N 84.0W...OR ABOUT 40 MILES/70 KM TO THE WEST OF PUERTO
CABEZAS NICARAGUA. IDA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 4 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EXPECT LOTS OF RAIN
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. STRONG SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 16N85W JUST OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 82W AND THE COAST OF BELIZE/THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND ALONG THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER
AND ADJACENT WATERS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED TO THE MAP ANALYSIS
AT 06/0000 UTC ALONG 28W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N. PRECIPITATION
THAT IS NEAR THIS WAVE IS IN THE ITCZ.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED ALONG 40W/41W TO
THE SOUTH OF 15N. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM
SIX HOURS AGO HAS OPENED INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. PRECIPITATION
THAT IS NEAR THIS WAVE IS IN THE ITCZ.
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA WAS DROPPED FROM THE MAP ANALYSIS AS IT HAS
BECOME CAUGHT UP IN THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE THAT IS AROUND
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA.
...THE ITCZ...
FROM 9N13W TO 6N23W TO 11N39W 11N53W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N62W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 16W AND 25W...AND WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N23W 12N30W 12N40W...FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN
37W AND 40W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO
THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 21N92.5W.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GALE-FORCE
WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W...
NEAR A 500 MB CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACCORDING TO THE
GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB. WEAKENING BUT LINGERING SHOWERS ARE FROM
THE COLOMBIA COAST TO 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N63W TO 15N65W TO
12N65W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 60W
AND 65W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 60W AND 70W IN THE TROUGH.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 69W/70W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N68W 22N71W TO THE
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N71W.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA...TO THE
NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 65W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG
31N67W 27N71W 25N78W. ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
33N44W. A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 27N30W. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW HAS PERSISTED FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS TO THE
NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W.
$$
MT
000
WTCA41 TJSJ 060551
TCPSP1
BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL IDA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 7A
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL112009
100 AM EST VIERNES 6 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
...IDA ESTA PRODUCIENDO LLUVIA FUERTE SOBRE PORCIONES DE NICARAGUA Y
HONDURAS...
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA
NORESTE DE HONDURAS DESDE LIMON HACIA EL ESTE HASTA LA FRONTERA DE
HONDURAS Y NICARAGUA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA
QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO
VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS.
INTERESES EN OTRAS PARTES DE HONDURAS DEBEN DE MONITOREAR EL
PROGRESO DE IDA.
PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...VERIFIQUE
LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
A LA 100 PM EST...0600 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL IDA
ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.0
OESTE O CERCA DE 40 MILLAS...70 KM...AL OESTE DE PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA.
LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE CERCA DE 5
MPH. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE Y UN AUMENTO RAPIDO EN LA
VELOCIDAD MAS TARDE HOY. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO
DE IDA SE MOVERA A TRAVES DEL NORESTE DE NICARAGUA Y EL ESTE DE
HONDURAS DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SE PRONOSTICA QUE EL CICLON
TROPICAL REAPAREZCA SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE TEMPRANO EL
SABADO.
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO A ALREDEDOR DE 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA DEBILITAMIENTO ADICIONAL
HOY A MEDIDA QUE IDA SE MUEVE SOBRE TIERRA. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES
POSIBLE DESPUES QUE IDA REAPAREZCA SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE
EL SABADO.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1005 MB...29.68 PULGADAS.
SE ESPERA QUE IDA PRODUZCA UN TOTAL DE ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 5
A 7 A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS ESTE DE HONDURAS Y NICARAGUA...Y LAS
ISLAS CERCANAS DE NICARAGUA CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE 12 PULGADAS ES
POSIBLE. ACUMULACIONES MAXIMAS DE LLUVIA DE 15 A 20 PULGADAS SON
POSIBLES SOBRE REGIONES DE TERRENO ELEVADO EN HONDURAS Y NICARAGUA.
ESTOS AGUACEROS PUEDEN PRODUCIR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y
DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO QUE AMENAZEN VIDAS.
...RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 100 AM
EST...LOCALIZACION...14.1 NORTE 84.0 OESTE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE-NOROESTE O 330 GRADOS A 5 MPH
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1005 MILIBARES
UNA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A
LAS 400 AM EST.
$$
PRONOSTICADORES CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 060544
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
100 AM EST VIERNES 6 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS PARA LA
RECIEN DEGRADADA DEPRESION TROPICAL IDA...LOCALIZADA A 40 MILLAS AL
OESTE DE PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.
EN EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN
LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABNT20 KNHC 060534
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT
40 MILES WEST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
000
WTNT31 KNHC 060534
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
100 AM EST FRI NOV 06 2009
...IDA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT
40 MILES...70 KM...WEST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...
7 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE CENTER OF IDA
REMAINS OVER LAND. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AFTER IDA
EMERGES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON SATURDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...AND THE
ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER REGIONS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN IN HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
...SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.1N 84.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 AM EST.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 060531
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST THU NOV 5 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH OF THE
MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060335
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI NOV 06 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.
...TROPICAL LOW...
.LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 11N92W ESTIMATED AT 1009 MB AND IS
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE SYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
SHEAR. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM 11.5N92W...WITH THE CONVECTION
OCCASIONALLY BANDING MAINLY NW OF THE CENTER.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 12N85W TO 08N99W TO 13N114W TO
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N97W TO 08N103W AND
WITHIN 150 NM OF 09N110W AND 14N115W AND 10N129.5W.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N115W WITH A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE AMPLIFYING N TO A CREST NEAR 34N114W MERGING INTO A
LONG WAVE RIDGE THAT HAS ITS MEAN AXIS N TO S ALONG ROUGHLY 110W
OVER ALL OF N AMERICA. A TROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE TO A SHARP CREST OVER THE ITCZ AT 10N133W WITH
ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER TO
11N104W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION
BETWEEN 120W AND 134W WITH THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE
ADVECTED NE ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THIS TROPICAL RIDGE...
ROUGHLY WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 13N125W TO 24N116W
WHERE THE MOISTURE TURNS SE TO NEAR 17N106W. ANOTHER BRANCH OF
MOISTURE IS ALSO ADVECTED N ALONG 116W TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR 13N115W
WITH THE MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE SAME AREA. CONVECTION ALONG THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 103W AND 112W WAS ALSO ENHANCED SOME EARLIER
WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADING SW TO ALONG 03N.
TO THE NW OF THE ANTICYCLONE...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS
MOVED INTO THE AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS N OF 20N ALONG 127W.
UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED N OF 24N E OF 128W TO OVER THE NORTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA.
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N96W
TO 22N97W AND INTO A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE AT 19N96W WITH THE
TROUGH CONTINUING S TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 11N99W.
CONVECTION IS SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ALONG THE ITCZ JUST E OF THIS
TROUGH...BETWEEN 92W AND 96W WITH MOST OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE
SPREADING N ACROSS GUATEMALA AND EASTERN OLD MEXICO EVENTUALLY
TURNING NE INTO A PLUME THAT CONTINUES ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE MERGES WITH THE MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL STORM IDA OVER NICARAGUA.
AT THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE HIGH PRES IS NEAR 26N122W 1020 MB.
AN INITIAL COLD FRONT IS LOSING ITS PUSH ALONG 32N131W TO
24N140W WHILE A SECONDARY FRONT IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE
EXTREME NW PORTION OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT THE FRONTS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY NW SWELLS
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO NEAR 18 FT LATE SAT ALONG 30N
BETWEEN 125W AND 135W.
GAP WINDS...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH FRI DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FRI NIGHT. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER GALE N
OF THE AREA IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND DEPENDING ON THE
ORIENTATION OF THE GALE CENTER IT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER
N SURGE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OR ACTUALLY IMPEDE N FLOW
INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE THE
FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FUTURE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE IDA.
$$
NELSON
000
WTCA41 TJSJ 060329
TCPSP1
BOLETIN
DEPRESION TROPICAL IDA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 PM EST JUEVES 5 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
...IDA SE DEBILITA A UNA DEPRESION...LA AMENAZA DE INUNDACIONES
CONTINUA...
A LA 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...EL GOBIERNO DE NICARAGUA HA
DESCONTINUADO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE
NICARAGUA DESDE BLUEFIELDS HACIA EL NORTE HASTA LA FRONTERA
DE NICARAGUA Y HONDURAS.
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA
NORESTE DE HONDURAS DESDE LIMON HACIA EL ESTE HASTA LA FRONTERA DE
HONDURAS Y NICARAGUA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA
QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO
VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS.
INTERESES EN OTRAS PARTES DE HONDURAS DEBEN DE MONITOREAR EL
PROGRESO DE IDA.
PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...VERIFIQUE
LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
A LA 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL IDA
ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.1
OESTE O CERCA DE 50 MILLAS...80 KM...AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE PUERTO
CABEZAS NICARAGUA.
LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE CERCA DE 5
MPH. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE Y UN AUMENTO RAPIDO EN LA
VELOCIDAD PARA EL VIERNES. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL
CENTRO DE IDA SE MOVERA A TRAVES DEL NORESTE DE NICARAGUA Y EL ESTE
DE HONDURAS POR LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. SE PRONOSTICA QUE EL CICLON
TROPICAL REAPAREZCA SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE TEMPRANO EL
SABADO.
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO A ALREDEDOR DE 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA DEBILITAMIENTO ADICIONAL
ESTA NOCHE Y EL VIERNES A MEDIDA QUE IDA SE MUEVE SOBRE TIERRA.
ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES POSIBLE DESPUES QUE IDA REAPAREZCA SOBRE EL
NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE EL SABADO.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1004 MB...29.65 PULGADAS.
SE ESPERA QUE IDA PRODUZCA UN TOTAL DE ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 5
A 7 A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS ESTE DE HONDURAS Y NICARAGUA...Y LAS
ISLAS CERCANAS DE NICARAGUA CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE 12 PULGADAS ES
POSIBLE. ACUMULACIONES MAXIMAS DE LLUVIA DE 15 A 20 PULGADAS SON
POSIBLES SOBRE REGIONES DE TERRENO ELEVADO EN HONDURAS Y NICARAGUA.
ESTOS AGUACEROS PUEDEN PRODUCIR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y
DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO QUE AMENAZEN VIDAS.
...RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 1000 PM
EST...LOCALIZACION...13.8 NORTE 84.1 OESTE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE-NOROESTE O 330 GRADOS A 5 MPH
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1004 MILIBARES
UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE
HURACANES A LAS 100 AM EST SEGUIDO POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
COMPLETA A LAS 400 AM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADORES PASCH/ROBERTS
000
WTNT31 KNHC 060236
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 PM EST THU NOV 05 2009
...IDA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES...
AT 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST OR ABOUT
50 MILES... 80 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IDA MOVES OVER LAND. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY AFTER IDA EMERGES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON
SATURDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...AND THE
ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER REGIONS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN IN HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
...SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.8N 84.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM EST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
000
WTNT21 KNHC 060230
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
0300 UTC FRI NOV 06 2009
AT 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 84.1W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 84.1W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 84.0W
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.4N 84.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.4N 84.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.6N 84.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.7N 85.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.3N 86.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 25SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 23.0N 87.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 26.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 84.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
000
ACPN50 PHFO 060145
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST THU NOV 5 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
$$
FOSTER
000
WTCA41 TJSJ 060008
TCPSP1
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL IDA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 6A
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL112009
700 PM EST JUEVES 5 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
...IDA AHORA ES CASI UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL...AGUACEROS
FUERTES CONTINUAN SIENDO EL PRINCIPAL INTERES...
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE
DE NICARAGUA DESDE BLUEFIELDS HACIA EL NORTE HASTA LA FRONTERA DE
NICARAGUA Y HONDURAS.
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA
NORESTE DE HONDURAS DESDE LIMON HACIA EL ESTE HASTA LA FRONTERA DE
HONDURAS Y NICARAGUA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA
QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO
VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE 36 HORAS.
INTERESES EN OTRAS PARTES DE HONDURAS DEBEN DE MONITOREAR EL
PROGRESO DE IDA.
PARA INFORMACION DE LA TORMENTA ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...VERIFIQUE
LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
A LA 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL IDA
ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.0
OESTE O CERCA DE 55 MILLAS...85 KM...AL SUROESTE DE PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA.
IDA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE CERCA DE 5 MPH...7
KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE Y UN AUMENTO LEVE EN LA
VELOCIDAD PARA ESTA NOCHE O EL VIERNES. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE IDA SE MOVERA A TRAVES DEL NORESTE DE
NICARAGUA Y EL ESTE DE HONDURAS POR LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. SE PRONOSTICA
QUE EL CICLON TROPICAL REAPAREZCA SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE
TEMPRANO EL SABADO.
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO A ALREDEDOR DE 40
MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA QUE SE DEBILITE
MAS...Y SE ESPERA QUE IDA SE DEBILITE EN UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL PARA
ESTA NOCHE. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ES POSIBLE DESPUES QUE IDA
REAPAREZCA SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE EL SABADO.
VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN FUERA DEL
CENTRO HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KILOMETROS.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1002 MB...29.59 PULGADAS.
SE ESPERA QUE IDA PRODUZCA UN TOTAL DE ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 5
A 7 A LO LARGO DE LAS COSTAS ESTE DE HONDURAS Y NICARAGUA...Y LAS
ISLAS CERCANAS DE NICARAGUA CON CANTIDADES MAXIMAS DE 12 PULGADAS ES
POSIBLE. ACUMULACIONES MAXIMAS DE LLUVIA DE 15 A 20 PULGADAS SON
POSIBLES SOBRE REGIONES DE TERRENO ELEVADO EN HONDURAS Y NICARAGUA.
ESTOS AGUACEROS PUEDEN PRODUCIR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y
DESLIZAMIENTOS DE LODO QUE AMENAZEN VIDAS.
...RESUMEN DE LA INFORMACION DE LAS 700 PM
EST...LOCALIZACION...13.5 NORTE 84.0 OESTE
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE-NOROESTE O 330 GRADOS A 5 MPH
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1002 MILIBARES
LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE
HURACANES A LAS 1000 PM EST.
$$
PRONOSTICADORES PASCH/ROBERTS
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 052358
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
700 PM EST JUEVES 5 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS PARA LA
TORMENTA TROPICAL IDA QUE SE ESTA DEBILITANDO...LOCALIZADA CERCA DE
55 MILLAS AL SUROESTE DE PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.
EN EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN
LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS/PASCH
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
AXNT20 KNHC 052355
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU NOV 05 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA AT 06/0000 UTC IS NEAR 13.5N
84.0W OR ABOUT 50 NM SW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MOVING NNW
AT 4 KT. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT
MAKING IDA A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS THE STORM TRACKS ACROSS NE NICARAGUA AND E HONDURAS.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE BACK OVER WATER EARLY SAT. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
WITH MAXIMUM 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 82W-86W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N
BETWEEN 80W-85W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N78W TO 9N80W AND
INTO THE E PACIFIC TO 4N80W. THE WAVE SIGNATURE BECOMES HARDER
TO IDENTIFY AS IT CONTINUES TO APPROACH TROPICAL STORM IDA.
BROAD DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERS THE SRN CARIBBEAN IN WHICH THE
WAVE LIES. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
14N-15N BETWEEN 77W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 80W-82W.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N25W 9N38W 11N48W 10N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N
BETWEEN 16W-30W. A 1011 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR
10N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS NE OF THE LOW
FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 36W-40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 15N49W TO 9N49W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE TROUGH AXIS.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER MUCH OF THE SRN
GULF OF MEXICO S OF 27N FROM S FLORIDA TO THE MEXICO COASTLINE.
THIS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY MOIST SWLY AND DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MEXICO AND THE FAR WRN
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 98W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CENTERED OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM A 1031 MB HIGH OVER SE
MISSOURI...AND A 1029 MB HIGH OVER ERN TEXAS. MODERATELY DRY AIR
COVERS THE NRN GULF N OF 28N PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
GULF STATES COASTLINE. WINDS OF 20-25 KT REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE BASIN WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KT IN THE SW GULF. EXPECT HIGH
PRESSURE TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN GULF. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI. SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN GULF.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM IDA REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST TONIGHT.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...A TROPICAL WAVE E OF
T.S. IDA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
14N-15N BETWEEN 77W-80W...AND OVER PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN
80W-82W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 17N69W TO
11N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN
66W-69W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ALONG
THE VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA COASTLINE S OF 12N BETWEEN 69W-76W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE BASIN
CENTERED NEAR 15N77W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE ATLC INTO THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W SUPPORTING
THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF HISPANIOLA.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N67W ALONG
28N70W 26N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE
AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER THE
NW BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA FROM 24N-28N W OF 74W. THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF
30N OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS AND NW ATLC...AS WELL AS MOIST SW TO
W FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 26N69W TO NRN HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING S OF 28N
WITH AXIS ALONG 64W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 39N31W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVER THE ERN ATLC. ONE UPPER
LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N44W SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 27N-31N
BETWEEN 40W-46W. THE SECOND UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N31W
SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR 29N32W...AND FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN
21W-26W. THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARING
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TO THE NE SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 34W-46W.
$$
WALTON
000
ABNT20 KNHC 052349
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST THU NOV 5 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM IDA...LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO
CABEZAS NICARAGUA.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
000
WTNT31 KNHC 052348
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
700 PM EST THU NOV 05 2009
...IDA NOW BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE
PRIMARY CONCERN...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES...85 KM...SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND
IDA WILL LIKELY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT. SOME
RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AFTER IDA EMERGES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ON SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...AND THE
ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER REGIONS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN IN HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
...SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.5N 84.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM EST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 052339
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST THU NOV 5 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 270 MILES SOUTH OF THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA
BORDER HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS
CONDUCIVE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
DRIFTS TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
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