000
FXAK69 PAFG 032240
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
240 PM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH HEIGHT RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NW INTERIOR AND COLD LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA ARE THE MAIN FEATURES IMPACTING NORTHERN ALASKA
WEATHER THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE BERING SEA LOW IS DRFTG NW
IMPACTS MOSTLY LIMITED TO AREAS WEST OF 160W.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TAKING BERING SEA LOW NORTH AND WEST
NEXT 24 HOURS. THERMAL TROUGH NOT WELL DEFINED TODAY OVER THE
INTERIOR BUT PERHAPS SHARPING UP TOMORROW NEAR OR NORTH OF THE
YUKON RIVER. MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFS IN NEW LOW MOVING INTO THE SRN
BERING SEA MON...WITH NAM CONSIDERABLY FARTHER S AND E WITH THIS
FEATURE THAN GFS OR ECMWF. MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING TROUBLE WITH
THIS FOR A WHILE..THOUGH WITH GFS/ECMWF NO IN BASIC AGREEMENT THIS
WOULD SEEM TO BE THE PREFERRED SOLUTION.

IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...MODELS IN GENERAL WAY OVERFORECASTED WINDS
OVER THE BERING SEA TODAY. MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS NO STORM
FORCE WINDS AT ALL...WITH GALES MOSTLY CONFINED TO N OF NUNIVAK
ISLAND. THIS INCREASES OUR CONFIDENCE OF BRING WINDS DOWN NEXT 24
HOURS.

MID-RANGE GUIDANCE FOR NORTHERN ALASKA LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY
COHERENT. RIDGE ALOFT HOLDING EARLY IN THE MID RANGE THEN SLOWING
DECAYING. ALL GUIDANCE WEAKEN THE RIDGE...THOUGH RECENT RUNS OF
OPERATIONS GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE LESS (HIGH HEIGHT) WEEK WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING BY THU. IN ANY EVENT...DIFFERENCES IN SENSIBLE WX
WOULD BE MINIMAL. MORE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING A SHORT
WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW PRESENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA. MODELS AGREE ON HAVING A CLOSED LOW ALOFT NEAR OR WEST
OF NUNIVAK ISLAND MONDAY PM. THEREAFTER 06Z GFS LARGELY LOSES THIS
FEATURE...WHILE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS IT IN TRACK AND MOVES THE FEATURE
TO BETWEEN WRANGEL ISLAND BARROW BY THU MORNING...AND IN THE
PROCESS SMACKING DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTH SLOPE. 00Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN LOOKS MORE LIKE THE ECMWF BUT THIS IS
DECEIVING...AS 00Z GFS MEAN EXPANDS THE LOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN
CANADIAN ARCTIC BACK WESTWARD...AND THIS IS NOT A CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED SOLUTION. 12Z ECMWF ALSO NOW LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA BY LATE THU/FRI FROM NW CANADIAN LOW. SOME MEAN
SOLUTION IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO AT THIS POINT.

NORTH SLOPE...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL KEEP ELY WINDS GOING
THRU THE WEEKEND. STRATUS OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA CLEARLY INCREASING
THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY PUSH INLAND TONIGHT. WILL HAVE A
STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONE 201.

WEST COAST...RAIN SHIELD HAS NOT MAD MUCH PROGRESS EAST OF A
SCAMMON BAY-ST LAWRENCE ISLAND LINE THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP HIGH
WIND HEADLINES FOR ZONES 213 AND 214. WARM AIRMASS
PERSISTING...WITH SIGNIFICANT ELY GRAD TODAY POSSIBLY ALLOWING
SOME COASTAL SITES TO BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS. GRAD DIMINISHES SAT.

INTERIOR...CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TODAY TO EAST 145W. SOME
INCREASE TOMORROW AS BOTH NAM AND GFS INCREASE PW VALUES FROM THE
WEST AND PERHAPS BETTER CONVERGENCE IF THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. TEMPS
QUITE WARM BUT NO RECORDS EXPECTED.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RHS NOT QUITE LOW ENOUGH FOR RED FLAGS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

$$

RT JUL 09

000
FXAK68 PAFC 032115
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
115 PM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM....WHILE LEANED
TOWARDS THE EUROPEAN MODEL FOR THE VERY END OF THE SHORT TERM THROUGH
THE MEDIUM RANGE FOR ITS MORE CONSISTENT HANDLING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE BERING SEA AND NORTH PACIFIC REGION.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

ALOFT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF OF ALASKA TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC...WHILE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BUT NARROW RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN AK PENINSULA TO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. WEAK NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OFFSHORE FLOW IS LOCATED OVER MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND THIS IS
TRANSPORTING SMOKE FROM A LARGE 19000+ ACRE FIRE OVER THE
SOUTHCENTRAL REGION RESULTING IN HAZY CONDITIONS.  MEANWHILE...A
STRONG UPPER LOW IS LIFTING NORTHWARDS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BERING
SEA AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR DECENT ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE DELTA REGION
AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE BERING SEA.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER ALL OF
SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS
IS HELPING TO CONTRIBUTE TO MARINE STRATUS AND SOME FOG ALONG THE
COASTLINES TO PLACES LIKE HOMER AND KODIAK.  SOME FOG HAS ALSO BEEN
NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD
BURN OFF WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND A FAIRLY HIGH SUN ANGLE AT THIS
TIME OF YEAR.  OUT WEST...ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE AK PENINSULA
WESTWARDS AND INCREASING TOWARDS THE DELTA REGION IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS.  THIS
IS ALL ASSOCIATED WITH A RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND ELONGATING FRONT THAT
IS RUNNING INTO THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST TO
ITS EAST.  NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE AFFECTING THE DELTA
COASTLINE AND NUNIVAK ISLAND WITH THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A 985 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING NORTH IN THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHCENTRAL.



.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
WHICH FORMS OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS
AND THOSE SURROUNDING THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...LIKELY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE CONTINUE TO RISE AND TRY TO CAP THE
CONVECTION.  MEANWHILE...CALM WINDS AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MARINE STRATUS TO CONTINUE IN THE GULF.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

WINDS WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND PRECIPITATION DIMINISH AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT LIFTS RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AND THE FRONT WASHES OUT AS IT
CONTINUES RUNNING INTO THE BLOCKING RIDGE.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPEARS
TO MOVE JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE DELTA REGION ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY PRODUCE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
NORTHWEST OF BETHEL FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WHILE SURFACE HIGH IS
LOCATED OVER THE REGION.  THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BRING GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ONCE AGAIN TO THE DELTA REGION AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AK
PENINSULA AS IT TAKES A TRACK NORTHWARDS THROUGH THE BERING THANKS TO
THE BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE STATE PERSISTING INTO
MIDWEEK.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM AS THE NEXT SYSTEM...BETTER HANDLED BY THE EUROPEAN
MODEL...TAKES A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE ONE CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION. THEREFORE...SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF INCREASED
WINDS TO NEAR OR AT GALE FORCE AND RAIN OVER MOST OF THE REGION
EXCEPT THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE WERE RELIED UPON FOR THE MEDIUM
RANGE AS IT HAS REMAINED MORE CONSISTENT WITH ITS HANDLING OF THE
NEXT LOW IN THE BERING SEA.  THIS SOLUTION KEEPS THE RIDGE OVER THE
ANCHORAGE AOR THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH PERHAPS SOME FLATTENING
TO ZONAL FLOW FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD AS A SYSTEM CLIPS THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY.  AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING SEA.



.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

CC JUL 09

000
FXAK67 PAJK 031958
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1158 AM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS THIS MORNING SHOWED THE
MARINE LAYER OVER MUCH OF THE OUTER COAST INCLUDING PAYA, PASI AND
PAKW. THE MARINE LAYER ALSO GOT AS FAR INLAND AS PAGN THIS MORNING
AS IT WENT UP PERIL STRAIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER HAS SINCE BURNED
OFF AND MOVED OFFSHORE LEAVING MOST OF THE PANHANDLE ENJOYING
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. WINDS TODAY REMAIN LIGHT WITH
THE USUAL SEA BREEZE FLUCTUATIONS BEING THE MAIN INFLUENCE.
CONVECTION IS ALREADY STARTING TO FIRE IN THE SOUTHERN YUKON. THE
CLOSEST SO FAR IS NEAR WHITEHORSE.

FOR LATER TODAY, TONIGHT, AND TOMORROW, THE CONVECTION IN THE
YUKON WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL LI AND CAPE
POINTS TO THE POSSIBLY OF CONVECTION STARTING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS AROUND PAHN AND PAGY AND THE AREA EAST OF THE
JUNEAU ICE FIELD. DON`T EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO GET TO JUNEAU BUT
HAINES AND SKAGWAY MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
CELLS DIE OFF AROUND SUNSET. AS SUCH HAVE AT LEAST SIGHT CHANCE
POPS AND CLOUDIER SKIES FOR HAINES AND SKAGWAY THIS EVENING.

THE MARINE LAYER WILL ONCE AGAIN ADVANCE ON THE COAST TONIGHT
BRINGING CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO COASTAL AREAS LATE. SHOULD NOT
PENETRATE TOO FAR INLAND AS THE FLOW MOSTLY PARALLELS THE COAST.
AREAS ALONG THE COAST AND AROUND PERIL STRAIT, AND CROSS SOUND
SHOULD BE OVERCAST BY EARLY TOMORROW. THE MARINE LAYER WILL ONCE
AGAIN BURN OFF TOMORROW BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA
ONCE AGAIN.

CONVECTION WILL AGAIN FIRE IN CANADA TOMORROW. MODEL LI AND CAPE
BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO HAINES
AND SKAGWAY AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
HIGHWAYS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE PRESENT TOMORROW IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE PANHANDLE AS A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MAX DRIFTS THROUGH.

MODELS WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS
A MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND. FORECAST WAS UPDATED WITH THE CURRENT NAM
AND THE MARINE LAYER WAS HANDLED RATHER WELL BY THE GEM WITH SOME
HAND ADJUSTMENTS.
&&

.LONG TERM...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA REMAINS WEAK AND PRIMARILY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A NARROW RIDGE ALOFT CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO STRONG UPPER LOWS IN
NORTHWEST CANADA AND EASTERN RUSSIA. MODELS SLOWLY DIVERGE DURING
THE WEEK BUT AGREE IN THE GENERAL TREND OF FLATTENING THE RIDGE IN
THE GULF THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES IN THE LATER
PART OF THE WEEK WITH THE STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES PENETRATING THE
RIDGE. THE VARIATION IS NOT LARGE, BUT COULD HAVE MORE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS FOR SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. IN LIGHT OF THE GROWING UNCERTAINTY THE EXTENDED PERIODS
WERE BLENDED TOWARD THE HPC SOLUTION WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.


EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
DRIFTING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM CANADA. MARINE STRATUS MAY
SPREAD INTO SOME COASTAL ZONES DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
BUT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO EXTEND FURTHER
INLAND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE A LITTLE LATER IN THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS BUT AT THIS TIME IT STILL DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT.


.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$

EAL/CFD

000
FXAK68 PAFC 031359
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
600 AM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE
AREA YET AGAIN. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER MOST OF
THE MAINLAND THROUGH THE GULF...WHILE A WEAKENING WAVE OVER KODIAK
ISLAND IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AND EAST. A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS
OVER EASTERN RUSSIA AND THE CENTRAL BERING. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
LOW NORTH OF SHEMYA IS CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN JET AND WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT OVER THE NORTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE
GULF COAST WHILE A WEAK AND WEAKENING SURFACE LOW DRIFTS TO THE
EAST UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE. IN THE GULF...UNDER
THE HIGH PRESSURE...A THICK AND PROLONGED STRATUS/MARINE LAYER WILL
LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
WEAKEN WHILE FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE. A FEW CLOUDS REMAIN AROUND THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
CIRRUS THAT LIKELY ORIGINATED AS PYROCUMULUS IN THE FAIRBANKS
AOR...EAST OF FORT YUKON AND ARE WORKING THEIR WAY SOUTHWEST IN THE
SUSITNA VALLEY AND ANCHORAGE AOR. OUT WEST...SURFACE FRONT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ALONG THE AKPEN THIS MORNING USHERING IN
40+ MPH GUSTS AND RAINS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND ARE COMING INTO DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A LOW THAT WILL
DEVELOP IN THE NORTH PACIFIC BEFORE IT MOVES INTO THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN TOWARDS SUNDAY. THE MAIN LONG RANGE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE POSITION AND INTENSITY...BUT A 12 HOUR LAG IS
EVIDENT BETWEEN THE QUICKER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF. CONFIDENCE IN THE
SHORT TERM IS ABOVE AVERAGE TO THE EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND
CONFIDENCE WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE IS AVERAGE. THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGES AVIATION-WISE WILL BE DEALING WITH CONDITIONS THAT
QUICKLY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND LIFR OUT WEST...AND TYPICAL MARINE
LAYER ISSUES FOR OTHER COASTAL LOCATIONS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE RESTRICTED TO
AREAS OF ENHANCED TOPOGRAPHY AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PREVIOUS
DAYS IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY...COPPER RIVER DELTA AND AREAS NORTH OF
PALMER. AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM AND THIS WILL HINDER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE COME LESS AND LESS LIKELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER KODIAK MOVES OUT INTO THE
GULF...PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT AS WELL. A FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL STALL OUT OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL BUT WILL NOT ADVANCE BEYOND WESTERN KODIAK WHILE THE
BLOCKING HIGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. THE FORECAST FOR
THE 4TH LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AND WARM FOR MOST AREAS WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...THE
EXCEPTION BEING AREAS IN THE GULF WHERE THE MARINE LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

.SOUTHWEST...
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING IS LOSING
ITS PUSH EAST AS IT SLAMS INTO THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE
MAINLAND. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT BY THE TIME IT HITS KING
SALMON AND DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THIS AFTERNOON...THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG THE AKPEN AND WESTERN
COAST. MORNING FOG IN PARTS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA FORMED FROM
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY AS THE SUN HEATS UP
THE LOWEST LEVELS.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY BEFORE THE NEXT LOW
CROSSES THE CHAIN TOMORROW. A WEAK SHORTWAVE NORTH OF SHEMYA THAT
IS ROTATING AROUND A LOW IN THE NORTHERN BERING WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING RAIN IN THE WESTERN CHAIN THROUGH MIDDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...LONG RANGE FORECASTS FOR SOUTHCENTRAL WILL
REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...UNTIL THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AND THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN SHIFTS TO MORE OF A ZONAL PATTERN. THE
RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY BEGINS TO FALL OVER THE BERING
WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES ROTATING AROUND A WEAKENING
CUTOFF LOW THAT IS DRIFTING TOWARDS RUSSIA. THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE
HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY THE CONTINUED VARIABILITY OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS AND THEIR RUN TO RUN CHANGES...ALTHOUGH AN OVERALL TREND IS
BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND THESE ISSUES WILL BE RESOLVED WITH
SUBSEQUENT RUNS.


.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 160 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

SSS JUL 09

000
FXAK67 PAJK 031252
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
452 AM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SHORT TERM...WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS
STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO ERODE SHORT WAVE ENERGY ATTEMPTING TO CLIMB
OVER THE TOP. A FEW STREAMERS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ARE
MAKING IT TO THE PANHANDLE...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. ALONG THE OUTER
COAST...MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS STILL IN PLACE FROM YAKUTAT SOUTH
TO CAPE DECISION BUT EXPECT TO SEE DECREASING CLOUDS IN THESE
LOCATIONS AS THE DAY GOES BY. ELSEWHERE...NOT A LOT OF CLOUDS TO
START THE DAY. STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE COAST MOUNTAINS TODAY AND IF
YESTERDAY IS ANY INDICATION OF WHAT LIES IN STORE FOR TODAY...WE
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON THE U.S. SIDE OF TH BORDER
TODAY. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE INCLUDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE HAINES AND SKAGWAY ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH...HAVE ALSO DRAWN IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE JUNEAU ZONE ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS. DO
NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
JUNEAU/DOUGLAS AREA THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...BUT THE THREAT
WILL NOT BE VERY FAR AWAY.

WENT WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC CLOUD COVER FORECAST TODAY...SO HAVE
INCREASED DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AS A RESULT.
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S TODAY. EXCEPTIONS
WILL BE THOSE LOCATIONS UNDER A MARINE STRATUS THIS MORNING WHERE
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 60S. THE OTHER EXCEPTION IS
HYDER...WHERE THE HIGH 70S ARE EXPECTED.

ONCE AGAIN...NOT A LOT OF WIND IN THE FORECAST. WESTERLY OR
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL
MARINE ZONES AND A MAJORITY OF THE INNER CHANNELS. EXCEPTIONS ARE
LYNN CANAL AND GLACIER BAY WHERE A AND A SOUTHERLY 15 KT SEA
BREEZE SHOULD SET UP THIS AFTERNOON.

USED NAM FOR PRIMARY GUIDANCE. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR SKIES...PRECIPITATION...AND WINDS.


&&


.LONG TERM...FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS
FAIRLY CONSTANT AS MODELS HAVE FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THEN.
LATER TIME FRAMES SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES BUT WILL BE MAKING
GENERALLY ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THOSE PERIODS. IN THE MORE
NEAR TERM USED NAM SOLUTION FOR ADJUSTMENTS WHILE FROM MONDAY
ONWARD LEANED TOWARDS USING THE ECMWF AS THAT WAS CONSENSUS WITH
ANCHORAGE... AS WELL WHAT PREVIOUS SHIFT WAS LEANING TOWARDS.

THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF CONTINUES TO HOLD IN PLACE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST ALONG THE PANHANDLE ALSO HOLDING IN POSITION. SHOULD
SEE A FAIRLY CONSTANT NORTHWEST WIND ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF THE
PANHANDLE AT 15 TO 20 KT. MARINE DECK ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF AND
TO THE OUTER COAST AREA ALSO LIKELY PERSISTING. SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO SPREAD INTO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THINK IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SCATTERED THOUGH.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS LIKE THE A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC ARE TRYING TO BATTER THEIR WAY THROUGH THE
RIDGE IN THE GULF BUT SHOULD NOT BE IMPACTING SOUTHEAST UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND IF THAT.



.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

FRITSCH/BEZENEK

000
FXAK69 PAFG 031021
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
221 AM AKDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING
RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER ALL OF MAINLAND ALASKA. CENTER OF HIGH
WILL DROP SOUTH TODAY AND LOCATE NEAR TANANA BY THIS EVENING
ACCORDING TO THE GFS. THE NAM HOLD THE HIGH AT AMBLER THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE SENDING IT NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT EITHER WAY RIDGE WILL BE IN TACT.

VERY WARM AIR FROM SURFACE ALL THE WAY TO 500 HT SHOULD
EFFECTIVELY SHUNT ALL CONVECTION DOWN TO NEAR NOTHING.

LOW IN THE BERING WILL PINWHEEL UP AND AROUND AND BACK TO THE WEST
THROUGH TONIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT BAND OF RAIN SHOULD PUSH TO ZONE
214 AND SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING.

WINDS NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL SEE GUSTS TO AT LEAST 50
MPH AND LIKELY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THAT GIVEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC
COAST.

MEDIUM RANGE...THE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS NORTHWEST
AK LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS WILL COVER EASTERN RUSSIA
AND THE BERING SEA...WITH ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CANADIAN ISLANDS.  IN BETWEEN THESE TWO TROUGHS...AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS NORTH FROM THE PACIFIC INTO ALASKA. THIS PATTERN HOLDS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE AVERAGE 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY.  THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TUE-WED NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES AND RELATIVE MEASURE
OF PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY WED THROUGH FRI.  IT LOOKS
LIKE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CANADA GRADUALLY EXPANDS TO THE WEST...
BUT WHAT...IF ANY...INTERACTION THERE IS WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA REMAINS IN DOUBT. IT DOES APPEAR LIKELY THAT HEIGHTS BY
THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE LOWER THAN THEY CURRENTLY ARE
ACROSS THE MAINLAND WITH TEMPERATURES NOT QUITE AS TOASTY AS RECENT
DAYS.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOW HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN CULPRIT IN
FIRE CONTROL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

CF JUL 09

000
FXAK69 PAFG 022234
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
234 PM AKDT THU JUL 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...


MODELS IN SHORT RANGE ARE SIMILAR THROUGH 48 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH DROPS SOUTH SLIGHTLY AND
WEAKENS THROUGH 60 HOURS.

A 990 MB LOW IN THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THE
GRADIENT ALONG THE WEST COAST BY WORKING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE STATE WILL BLOCK MOST OF THE PRECIP FROM AFFECTING THE
WEST COAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND, WHICH
WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE NORTH SLOPE WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE ARCTIC, SOME SPOTTY MORNING FOG ALONG THE COAST BUT
NO WIDESPREAD FOG AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS CAPPED MOST OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
FOR THE WEST COAST ZONES BUT THE INTERIOR WILL SEE ABOUT THE SAME
AS YESTERDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND
EAST OF FAIRBANKS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ABOUT THE SAME IN COVERAGE
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

FOR THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MOST INTERIOR ZONES.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

FIRE WEATHER...THE WARM WEATHER WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO DROP NEAR
15 PERCENT IN SOME INTERIOR ZONES OVER THE WEEKEND BUT INCREASED
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD KEEP MOST ZONES ABOVE THE LOW RH RED FLAG
CRITERIA.

HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

JK JUL 09

000
FXAK67 PAJK 022112
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
112 PM AKDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY STILLS SHOWS STRATUS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF BUT THERE IS LESS COVERAGE TODAY AS IT IS ERODING
FROM THE SW. STRATUS AND SC ALSO COVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA
BUT THE LAYERS ARE LESS THICK. THESE CLOUDS ARE ERODING AWAY FROM
THE NE WITH LARGE BREAKS NOW OPEN OVER PAHN-PAGY AREAS AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN WHERE SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED ACROSS DIXON ENTRANCE TO
PANT-CZST. DO EXPECT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO OPEN UP ACROSS
CENTRAL PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL AREAS NOT LIKELY TO SEE
TO MANY BREAKS TODAY.

 COASTAL AREAS WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE WITH THICKER CLOUD
COVER AND PROBABLY ONLY IN MID 50S. IN THE FAR NORTH AND FAR
SOUTH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN MID 60S TO LOWER 70S NEAR INLAND
HAINES AND HYDER. CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL SEE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S DEPENDING ON HOW SUNSHINE MANAGES TO MAKE IT THROUGH.

 NW WINDS HAVE INCREASED INTO 15-20 KT RANGE ALONG THE COAST AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN FOR LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS
THROUGH LYNN CANAL WILL ALSO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS SEA
BREEZE BECOMES ENHANCED WITH WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH. WILL
MONITOR CROSS SOUND AND ICY STRAIT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
WINDS IF A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

 FOR TONIGHT EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO REDEVELOP SOMEWHAT...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND COASTAL AREAS...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS WILL
LIKELY PUSH BACK INTO ZONE 27. WILL KEEP FAR NORTH AND SOUTHEAST
CORNER PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.

 BY TOMORROW RIDGE START TO GAIN SOME AMPLITUDE WHICH BRINGS
WINDS TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND REDUCES ONSHORE FLOW.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A FASTER BURN OFF FRIDAY MORNING AND GO
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR ALL INNER CHANNELS. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE MUCH
SLOWER TO LOOSE COVER BUT WILL START MENTIONING SUN BREAKS BY
AFTERNOON. WINDS AGAIN LOCALLY BREEZY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES THROUGH INNER CHANNELS.
AGAIN FAR NORTH AND FAR SOUTH WILL REACH THE LOW 70S WHILE
CENTRAL AREAS PUSH INTO MID AND UPPER 60S.

 MODEL OF CHOICE WAS 12Z NAM12 AS IT HANDLED CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE GULF THE BEST AND TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SEEMED TO MATCH
CURRENT CONDITIONS BEST. THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE
NAM NEAR ST ELIAS AND COAST MOUNTAINS THAT RESULTED IN LARGE PF
BULLS EYES THAT WERE REMOVED. GFS BIAS HAS BEEN TO CLEAR US OUT
TOO FAST WHICH RESULTED IN SOME VERY WARM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
CONFIDENCE IS PAR FOR THE COURSE.

 &&

.LONG TERM...A LARGE AREA OF WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE COAST MOUNTAINS WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALONG SHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF OVERCAST SKIES FROM THE MARINE LAYER
PRESENT THROUGH SUNDAY AND THE TROUGH WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE INNER CHANNELS. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF A UPPER TROUGH AND A
BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE IN THE GULF, WILL HELP TO CLEAR THINGS OUT.
SO HAVE PUT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT HAVE
KEPT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH THE
CLEARING SKIES, HAVE BUMPED UP THE HIGHS ONE OR TWO DEGREES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN SOME PLACES.

FOR PRECIP, THE PANHANDLE REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY FOR THE DURATION
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A UPPER LOW PASSES
BY TO THE SOUTH. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO NOT SEE VERY MUCH ACTION
EITHER WITH MOST WINDS BELOW 20 KT.

MODEL AGREEMENT IS VERY GOOD FOR THE MID RANGE AND GENERALLY HAVE
THE BIG PICTURE IDEA FOR THE LONG TERM. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE EC
AS THE MAIN MODEL FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST AS IT HAD A BETTER
INITIALIZATION, AND SEEMED TO HAVE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
FINAL BLEND WAS USING THE EC/NAM FOR THE MID RANGE AND THEN
SWITCHING TO THE HPC/EC FOR THE LONGER RANGE GRIDS. FOR THE CLOUD
COVER FORECAST USED GEM/NAM BLEND FOR THE MID RANGE AND THEN USED
DGEX FOR THE LONG RANGE. THE DGEX IN PARTICULAR SEEMS TO HAVE THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THE MARINE STRATUS IN THE GULF.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

MM/EAL

000
FXAK68 PAFC 021927 CCA
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
11 AM AKDT THU JUL 2 2009

MODELS INCONSISTENT SO HAVE DRIFTED TOWARD THE GFS OUT WEST. EAST
DOMAIN LIKES THE EUROPEAN FARTHER OUT IN TIME. EUROPEAN ALSO CAME
INTO LINE LAST NIGHT FOR A TIME WITH RESPECT FOR THE WESTERN DOMAIN.
NAM USED 1ST 3 PERIODS EASTERN DOMAIN.

AREA OF CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA APPEARS TO HAVE
DEVELOPED A WEAK SURFACE LOW BETWEEN KODIAK AND 150W. THIS
DEVELOPMENT GOES WELL WITH THE CLOUD SIGNATURE SHOWN ON THE GOES-WEST
LOOP. THIS FEATURE ALSO SHOWS UP BETTER AT 500 MB. LIGHT RAIN
PROBABILITIES ARE LIKELY HIGHER ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF KODIAK ISLAND
THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY OUT IN THE FORECAST. 30% TO 40% IS MORE
REALISTIC AS OPPOSED TO THE 20%S NOW OUT. THEN AGAIN IF NONE OF THE
GAUGES RECEIVE 0.01 RAIN, THEN THE 20% WILL BE THE BETTER FORECAST.
THEREFORE, I WILL LEAVE FORECASTS ALONE. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE GULF
SYSTEM WILL GET KICKED SOUTHEAST BY AN INCOMING, WASHING OUT, BERING
SEA FRONT. HIGHER PRESSURE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS COULD MAKE
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY FOR KODIAK ISLAND FRIDAY.

THE MOST UNSTABLE AREA TODAY LIES FROM THE CENTRAL KUSKOKWIM VALLY
EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SUSITNA/MATANUSKA VALLEYS AND OVER MOST OF
ZONE 141. GOOD SUNSHINE IN THESE ZONES MAY PRODUCE JUST AS MUCH
ACTIVITY AS WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE LAGGING 1 TO 3
DEGREES BEHIND 11 AM READINGS FROM YESTERDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE ALONG THE WESTWARD MOVING MARINE BOUNDARY.

LOW MARINE CLOUDS COVER ALL OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE NORTH
GULF COAST AND HAVE SPREAD OVER THE BARREN ISLANDS INTO KAMISHAK BAY.
MARINE STRATUS IN COOK INLET AND TURNAGAIN SHOULD BURN OFF THIS
AFTERNOON.

ACTIVE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE PRIBILOFS AND FOX ISLANDS PRODUCING
MOSTLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. MODELS
SUGGEST A NARROW BAND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THIS SYSTEM IS STARTING TO HIT THE HIGH PRESSURE WALL WHICH
WILL KEEP ALL OF THE WIND AND RAIN OUT IN THE BERING. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN REACHING COAST FROM CAPE
NEWENHAM NORTHWARD  LATE TONIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY. LIGHT
RAIN AT TIMES IS LIKELY FOR BRISTOL BAY

AN EVEN MORE ACTIVE STORM WILL MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS ATKA
ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING THEN TO A POSITION JUST WEST OF ST PAUL
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. STORM HAS THE ENERGY TO GIVE A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WITH POSSIBLE STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTHEAST
BERING AND EVEN THE PRIBILOFS. FRONT TO PUSH PAST DUTCH HARBOR TO ST
GEORGE AROUND 7 TO 8 AM FRIDAY AS IT LOOKS NOW. LOW CENTER PULLS BACK
NORTHWEST TO THE RUSSIAN COAST NEAR 173E FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE, MOSTLY ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
MAINLAND ALASKA WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE NICE SUMMER WEATHER THE
NEXT 4 OR 5 DAYS. ONLY BRISTOL BAY AND THE WEST COAST WILL HAVE AN
OCCASIONAL DYING FRONT BRUSH BY FOR CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN OR
FOG.


.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NO WARNINGS/WATCHES
MARINE...GALES AND POSSIBLE STORM ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHEAST BERING SEA.
FIRE WEATHER...CONDITIONS SLOWLY DRYING. DEW POINTS STAY HIGH ENOUGH
AND WINDS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR NO FLAGS.

PERCY JUL 09

000
FXAK68 PAFC 021923
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
11 AM AKDT THU JUL 2 2009

MODELS INCONSISTENT SO HAVE DRIFTED TOWARD THE GFS OUT WEST. EAST
DOMAIN LIKES THE EUROPEAN FARTHER OUT IN TIME. EUROPEAN ALSO CAME
INTO LINE LAST NIGHT FOR A TIME WITH RESPECT FOR THE WESTERN DOMAIN.
NAM USED 1ST 3 PERIODS EASTERN DOMAIN.

AREA OF CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA APPEARS TO HAVE
DEVELOPED A WEAK SURFACE LOW BETWEEN KODIAK AND 150W. THIS
DEVELOPMENT GOES WELL WITH THE CLOUD SIGNATURE SHOWN ON THE GOES-WEST
LOOP. THIS FEATURE ALSO SHOWS UP BETTER AT 500 MB. LIGHT RAIN
PROBABILITIES ARE LIKELY HIGHER ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF KODIAK ISLAND
THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY OUT IN THE FORECAST. 30% TO 40% IS MORE
REALISTIC AS OPPOSED TO THE 20%S NOW OUT. THEN AGAIN IF NONE OF THE
GAUGES RECEIVE 0.01 RAIN, THEN THE 20% WILL BE THE BETTER FORECAST.
THEREFORE, I WILL LEAVE FORECASTS ALONE. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE GULF
SYSTEM WILL GET KICKED SOUTHEAST BY AN INCOMING, WASHING OUT, BERING
SEA FRONT. HIGHER PRESSURE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS COULD MAKE
FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY FOR KODIAK ISLAND FRIDAY.

THE MOST UNSTABLE AREA TODAY LIES FROM THE CENTRAL KUSKOKWIM VALLY
EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SUSITNA/MATANUSKA VALLEYS AND OVER MOST OF
ZONE 141. GOOD SUNSHINE IN THESE ZONES WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE JUST AS
MUCH ACTIVITY AS WAS SEEN WEDNESDAY BUT WITH LOCATIONS A LITTLE
SHIFTED FROM WEDS SPOTS. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
FORM OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA ALONG AND IN ADVANCE ALONG THE WESTWARD
MOVING MARINE BOUNDARY.

LOW MARINE CLOUDS COVER ALL OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE NORTH
GULF COAST AND HAVE SPREAD OVER THE BARREN ISLANDS INTO KAMISHAK BAY.
MARINE STRATUS IN COOK INLET AND TURNAGAIN SHOULD BURN OFF THIS
AFTERNOON.

ACTIVE FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE PRIBILOFS AND FOX ISLANDS PRODUCING
MOSTLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. MODELS
SUGGEST A NARROW BAND OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. THIS SYSTEM IS STARTING TO HIT THE HIGH PRESSURE WALL WHICH
WILL KEEP ALL OF THE WIND AND RAIN OUT IN THE BERING. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN REACHING COAST FROM CAPE
NEWENHAM NORTHWARD  LATE TONIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY. LIGHT
RAIN AT TIMES IS LIKELY FOR BRISTOL BAY

AN EVEN MORE ACTIVE STORM WILL MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS ATKA
ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING THEN TO A POSITION JUST WEST OF ST PAUL
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. STORM HAS THE ENERGY TO GIVE A MORE WIDESPREAD
AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WITH POSSIBLE STORM FORCE WINDS SOUTHEAST
BERING AND EVEN THE PRIBILOFS. FRONT TO PUSH PAST DUTCH HARBOR TO ST
GEORGE AROUND 7 TO 8 AM FRIDAY AS IT LOOKS NOW. LOW CENTER PULLS BACK
NORTHWEST TO THE RUSSIAN COAST NEAR 173E FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE, MOSTLY ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
MAINLAND ALASKA WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE NICE SUMMER WEATHER THE
NEXT 4 OR 5 DAYS. ONLY BRISTOL BAY AND THE WEST COAST WILL HAVE AN
OCCASIONAL DYING FRONT BRUSH BY FOR CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN OR
FOG.


.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NO WARNINGS/WATCHES
MARINE...GALES AND POSSIBLE STORM ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHEAST BERING SEA.
FIRE WEATHER...CONDITIONS SLOWLY DRYING. DEW POINTS STAY HIGH ENOUGH
AND WINDS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR NO FLAGS.

PERCY JUL 09

000
FXAK67 PAJK 021334
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
534 AM AKDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 50N/150W IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH. THIS SAME SCENARIO WAS DEPICTED BY
ECMWF IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...SO IT LOOKS LIKE WHAT IS LEFT OF
THE LOW WILL UNDERCUT THE SURFACE RIDGE PRESENTLY LOCATED IN THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN GULF. TWO CLOUD SHIELDS RELATED TO THE LOW
ARE MAKING THEIR WAY UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AND
OVER THE TOP. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHERN SHIELD
ARE ALREADY OVER THE OUTER COAST FROM SITKA NORTH TO CROSS SOUND.
NOT A LOT OF MID LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES AND
DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY RELATED PRECIPITATION MAKE IT TO THE
COAST DURING THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL ON SHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER...SO HAVE INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE FOR THIS
MORNING. WENT WITH CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST
FOR TODAY WITH SOME BREAKS SHOWING UP ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND ONSHORE FLOW
DIMINISHES...SHOULD SEE SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT HOLES IN THE CLOUD
COVER BEGINNING THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.

WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
ONE MORE DAY...DECREASED TODAYS HIGH TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES IN
MOST PLACES. AM EXPECTING LOW TO MID 60S EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE
HYDER AREA...WHERE MID 70S ARE FORECAST.

NO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING FORECAST. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 KTS OR LESS PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
LYNN CANAL WHERE THE DAILY SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE OF 20 KTS IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

GFS WAS BETTER INITIALIZED WITH REGARD TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT OVER DID THE STRENGTH OF THE JET OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. NAM WAS MUCH BETTER IN THAT REGARD...AS WELL AS VORTICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LOCATED NEAR 50N/150W. NAM ALSO CAPTURING
DAYTIME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE COAST MOUNTAINS VERY NICELY.
ACCORDINGLY...USED NAM AS PRIMARY GUIDANCE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE ON PRESSURE...POP...AND WINDS
TODAY BUT ONLY AVERAGE ON CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS.


&&

.LONG TERM...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE IN THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL
PERSIST AS WELL. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT IS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AT THE END OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND THE
WILL MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MORE
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN IN THE NORTHERN GULF AT THE
END OF THE WEEK AS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED.

THERMAL LOWS OVER THE INLAND AREAS OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND YUKON
PERSISTING WITH STANDARD AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DRIFTING
TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT DON`T THINK THAT
MUCH IF ANY WILL CROSS OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST
ALASKA FOR THE MARINE FORECASTS. MARINE LAYER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST INTO THE WEEKEND.

USED THE ECMWF AS MY BASIS FOR UPDATES FOR THE LATER PERIODS BUT
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY USED THE NAM FOR ADJUSTMENTS. LATER
PORTION OF THE FORECAST COORDINATED WITH ANCHORAGE. CONFIDENCE
FAIRLY GOOD TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE FORECAST PACKAGE
BEFORE IT STARTS TO DIMINISH WITH LATER DAYS DUE TO THE TIME FROM
CURRENT.


.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

FRITSCH/BEZENEK

000
FXAK68 PAFC 021203
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT THU JUL 2 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SIMILAR STORY FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINING OVER THE AREA. THIS IS
CHARACTERIZED BY A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA WITH AN
ASSOCIATED CUT OFF LOW NORTH OF SHEMYA. A RIDGE EXTENDS OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA AND INTO CANADA. A ROBUST VORTICITY MAXIMA/SHORTWAVE IS OVER
KODIAK ISLAND.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR SHEMYA IS DISSIPATING THIS MORNING. A MORE
ROBUST LOW EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC...MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. A WEAK FRONT
IS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE ALASKA RANGE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW
MOVING INTO THE BERING AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION
CONTINUES TO BE QUICKER WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA...WHEREAS THE GFS TENDS TO KEEP THE LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. LATEST SOLUTIONS HAVE COME INTO A BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT THOUGH. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE OUT
WEST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...
MAIN FOCUS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ON AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...AS CONDITIONS REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AND WARM
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE ALONG
THE TALKEETNA AND ALASKA RANGES...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ON
FRIDAY...AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL...THE HIGHEST THREAT
ONCE AGAIN ALONG AREAS OF ENHANCED TOPOGRAPHY. OTHERWISE...LOW
CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WILL PLAGUE KODIAK ISLAND IN RESPONSE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...WITH PATCHY NIGHTTIME FOG FORMING ALONG
OTHER COASTAL LOCATIONS GIVEN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.SOUTHWEST...
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AS THE LOW APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SPREADS MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. MOST PRECIP WILL OCCUR ALONG COASTAL AREAS...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE AKPEN. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR
ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE GIVEN AFTERNOON HEATING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY
AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA...AND THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT DISSIPATES OVER BRISTOL BAY.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AFFECT THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE BERING SEA. THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
WILL SEE PRIMARILY SHOWERS...AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE STAYS
FARTHER TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
EXTENDED FORECAST OUT WEST HINGES ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE NORTH
PACIFIC LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING. GENERALLY EXPECT TROUGH TO REMAIN
OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WEAK RIDGING OVER THE MAINLAND WILL
PERSIST...ALTHOUGH A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHCENTRAL
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 165 170 171 172 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NRH JUL 09

000
FXAK69 PAFG 020955
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
155 AM AKDT THU JUL 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN SHORT RANGE ARE SIMILAR THROUGH 48 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH. ARCTIC HIGH DROPS SOUTH SLIGHTLY AND
WEAKENS THROUGH 60 HOURS. 500 MB HEIGHT WILL REMAIN STAY HIGH OVER
THE INTERIOR THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

LOW IN BERING SEA WILL MOVE EAST AND STRENGTHEN THE GRADIENT ALONG
WITH THE WEST COAST BY WORKING IN CONJUNCTION WITH RELATIVELY
STRONG HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC. THIS WILL BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH TH REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

MEDIUM RANGE...THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING SPREAD NEXT WEEK. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND AK
WITH UPPER TROUGHS TO THE WEST OF THE STATE ACROSS THE WESTERN
BERING SEA/EASTERN RUSSIA WITH A SECOND TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN
CANADA. 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS ARE ALL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
EARLY JULY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE WARM AIRMASS ALOFT WILL
HELP TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED FOR THE MOST PART WITH ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOSTLY
ACROSS THE MORE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO
DIVERGE...BUT IN GENERAL TRY TO LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS NORTHERN AK
EITHER AS THE CIRCULATION WITH THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA SPREADS
SOUTHWEST OR AS SOME OF THE ENERGY WITH THE LOW IN THE BERING
PRESSES EAST.  THE RELATIVE MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY BY 00Z WED/JULY 8TH...WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE THAT
A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN TACT SOUTH OF THE STATE.

GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE...EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH MONDAY
WITH SOME COOLING TO ENSUE TUES. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY OCCUR NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE IN FACT DOES
BREAK DOWN WITH LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE MAINLAND.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY WARM DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD OF CENTRAL
ALASKA FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES


&&

.HYDROLOGY...


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

CF JUL 09