[top]
000
FXUS64 KMOB 041755 AAB
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1256 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.UPDATE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WILL REQUIRE AN UPDATE TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE BORDER COUNTIES OF
ALABAMA...ALREADY HAD SLIGHT CHANCE IN ALONG THE COAST. DRIER AIR
OFF TO THE4 EAST SHOULD PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT THOSE AREAS. /11
.AVIATION UPDATE FOR 04/18Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WILL BE SOME VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL PRODUCE
POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SOME FOG
PATCHES POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN AREAS THAT CATCH A RAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BETTER ODDS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST
AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI CLOSER TO AN OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY. A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHING. /11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 96 76 93 74 / 05 10 30 40
PENSACOLA 92 79 92 76 / 20 20 30 40
DESTIN 88 82 90 78 / 20 20 30 40
EVERGREEN 98 71 91 72 / 05 10 40 40
WAYNESBORO 99 71 90 70 / 05 10 30 40
CAMDEN 98 72 92 72 / 05 10 30 50
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS64 KHUN 041753 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1253 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.UPDATE...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS UNTIL 06Z BEFORE SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPS. ONSET OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED ARND 09/11Z AT KMSL/KHSV
WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY ARND SUNRISE AT BOTH TERMINALS. GUSTS OF UP
TO 30KTS AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. A BRIEF
BREAK IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS INITIAL CONVECTION BETWEEN 12/18Z...
HOWEVER REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 1011 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/...
AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SKIRTS TO THE NORTH OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...DEBRIS CIRRUS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE RIDGE SLIDING EASTWARD YET STILL IN CONTROL OF
THE SHORT-TERM WEATHER PATTERN TODAY...A DRY AND WARM FORECAST IS
ON TAP. AFTERNOON HIGHS WERE TWEAKED TO DECREASE THEM BY A DEGREE
OR SO WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TREND. EVEN WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THE CLOUDS WILL CANCEL OUT
MUCH ADDITIONAL WARMING BY THE WAA IN PLACE...AND THUS THE REASON
BEHIND THE MINOR CHANGES THAT WERE MADE. OTHER THAN THESE
CHANGES...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
NECESSARY.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
12/NADLER.83
[top]
000
FXUS64 KBMX 041741
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1240 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND DRY DAY ON TAP FOR FIRING UP THE GRILL ON THIS FOURTH
OF JULY HOLIDAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE MIDDLE
80S THIS MORNING AND PRETTY CONFIDENT TO KEEP TODAYS HIGH RIGHT
WHERE THEY ARE. RAIN CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT... BUT
LOOKING AT VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...A FAIRLY
DENSE CU FIELD HAS ALREADY FORMED ACROSS LOUISIANA WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. GRANTED...THIS IS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THE WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
HERE LATER THIS EVENING IS DEFINITELY ON THE MOVE. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY MORE MUGGY THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE
LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ON
THE DOORSTEP ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE SUN COMES UP TOMORROW.
27
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN SITES BY 05/12Z...BRINGING AT LEAST MVFR CIGS BY MID
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY PICKING UP AS WELL AS
LIKELY DECREASING FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
27
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 041713 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1215 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.AVIATION UPDATE FOR 04/18Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WILL BE SOME VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL PRODUCE
POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SOME FOG
PATCHES POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN AREAS THAT CATCH A RAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BETTER ODDS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST
AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI CLOSER TO AN OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY. A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHING. /11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 96 76 93 74 / 05 10 30 40
PENSACOLA 92 79 92 76 / 20 20 30 40
DESTIN 88 82 90 78 / 20 20 30 40
EVERGREEN 98 71 91 72 / 05 10 40 40
WAYNESBORO 99 71 90 70 / 05 10 30 40
CAMDEN 98 72 92 72 / 05 10 30 50
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 041522
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1020 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.UPDATE...FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND DRY DAY ON TAP FOR FIRING UP THE GRILL ON THIS FOURTH
OF JULY HOLIDAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE MIDDLE
80S THIS MORNING AND PRETTY CONFIDENT TO KEEP TODAYS HIGH RIGHT
WHERE THEY ARE. RAIN CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT... BUT
LOOKING AT VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...A FAIRLY
DENSE CU FIELD HAS ALREADY FORMED ACROSS LOUISIANA WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. GRANTED...THIS IS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THE WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
HERE LATER THIS EVENING IS DEFINITELY ON THE MOVE. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY MORE MUGGY THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE
LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ON
THE DOORSTEP ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE SUN COMES UP TOMORROW.
27
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
KSL
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 041511 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1011 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO AFTERNOON HIGHS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
LATER THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SKIRTS TO THE NORTH OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...DEBRIS CIRRUS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE RIDGE SLIDING EASTWARD YET STILL IN CONTROL OF
THE SHORT-TERM WEATHER PATTERN TODAY...A DRY AND WARM FORECAST IS
ON TAP. AFTERNOON HIGHS WERE TWEAKED TO DECREASE THEM BY A DEGREE
OR SO WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TREND. EVEN WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...THE CLOUDS WILL CANCEL OUT
MUCH ADDITIONAL WARMING BY THE WAA IN PLACE...AND THUS THE REASON
BEHIND THE MINOR CHANGES THAT WERE MADE. OTHER THAN THESE
CHANGES...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE NECESSARY.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR 12Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TERMINALS THRU AT LEAST 06Z BEFORE
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA. EXACT
TIMING WITH ONSET OF SHRA/TS REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM...BUT LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT A WINDOW ARND 08-12Z SEEMS
APPROPRIATE. EXPECTING PRIMARILY SHRA OR RA WITH EMBEDDED ISOLD
TSRA WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION RESULTING TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPO MVFR VIS OWING TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...BUT IFR
OR LIFR WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER TSRA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EJECT EASTWARD
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND SRLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
AREA. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD ON MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY
/PRESUMABLY DUE TO QUICKER ONSET OF CLOUD COVER/ AND HAVE TRIMMED
TEMPS BACK A TAD AS WELL. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO LOWER/THICKEN
BY THIS EVENING...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE EVENING
REMAIN RAIN FREE FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. WILL ONLY
INCLUDE A SMALL CHC POP ACROSS OUR NRN COUNTIES. PRECIP CHANCES
REALLY BEGIN TO CLIMB OVERNIGHT AS SFC/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION. NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATE SIGNIFICANT LL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND UVM IN THE 09Z-18Z TIME FRAME...BEGINNING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. THUS...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.
NEXT QUESTION SURROUNDS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS IS INITIALLY PROGGED TO BE FAIRLY STABLE TO SFC BASED
PARCELS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS...ALONG
WITH SHOWALTER AND K-INDICES...DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION. REAL QUESTION BECOMES WHAT /IF ANY/ POTENTIAL THERE
IS FOR SFC BASED DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTN AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. NEWER MODEL RUNS HAVE BOTH SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
FROPA AND TRENDED MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER. THIS TREND
WOULD BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR SVR WX ACROSS SRN TN/NRN AL.
HOWEVER...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
SUNDAY AFTN SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ABOUT 19-23Z FOR ISOLD/SCT STORMS TO
REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH FAIRLY DECENT SHEAR FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR (30-35 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR)...IF WE CAN REALIZE SFC
CAPES ABOVE 1 KJ/KG SEVERE WX WITH ISOLD WIND/ROTATING STORMS IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FCST WILL BE TO BACK OFF ON POPS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NAM/GFS ARE BOTH IN AGREEMENT IN
PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA AFTER 06Z MON. THE SREF GUIDANCE STILL IS A BIT SLOWER...SO
WILL STILL HANG TO LOW POPS FOR NOW. BEYOND MON...ANOTHER FAIRLY
QUIET PERIOD LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH TEMPS
TRENDING TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE THE
U/L RIDGE WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WRN PLAINS/SW UNITED
STATES WITH A WEAK SHEAR AXIS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF
COAST/SOUTHEAST US. THIS MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT WILL WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE
ATTEMPTING TO PIN DOWN ANY SPECIFIC TIMING.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...12
PREV DISCUSSION...15/CBD
AVIATION...KDW/03
000
FXUS64 KHUN 041136 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
635 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TERMINALS THRU AT LEAST 06Z BEFORE
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA. EXACT
TIMING WITH ONSET OF SHRA/TS REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM...BUT LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT A WINDOW ARND 08-12Z SEEMS
APPROPRIATE. EXPECTING PRIMARILY SHRA OR RA WITH EMBEDDED ISOLD TSRA
WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION RESULTING TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
MVFR VIS OWING TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...BUT IFR OR
LIFR WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER TSRA.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
ANOTHER FAIRLY PLEASANT NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND DWPTS IN THE 50S UNDER A VEIL OF BKN
HIGH CLOUDS. A RECENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW POSITIONED FROM
SRN KANSAS THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX TO THE GULF COAST REGION. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS WEST
TEXAS WITH BROAD NWRLY FLOW ACROSS THE MS/TN VALLEY REGION.
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EJECT EASTWARD OUT
OF THE PLAINS AND SRLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD ON MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY /PRESUMABLY DUE
TO QUICKER ONSET OF CLOUD COVER/ AND HAVE TRIMMED TEMPS BACK A TAD AS
WELL. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO LOWER/THICKEN BY THIS EVENING...BUT
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE EVENING REMAIN RAIN FREE FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SMALL CHC POP
ACROSS OUR NRN COUNTIES. PRECIP CHANCES REALLY BEGIN TO CLIMB
OVERNIGHT AS SFC/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION.
NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATE SIGNIFICANT LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UVM IN
THE 09Z-18Z TIME FRAME...BEGINNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THUS...HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
NEXT QUESTION SURROUNDS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS IS INITIALLY PROGGED TO BE FAIRLY STABLE TO SFC BASED
PARCELS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS...ALONG
WITH SHOWALTER AND K-INDICES...DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION. REAL QUESTION BECOMES WHAT /IF ANY/ POTENTIAL THERE
IS FOR SFC BASED DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTN AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. NEWER MODEL RUNS HAVE BOTH SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
FROPA AND TRENDED MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER. THIS TREND
WOULD BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR SVR WX ACROSS SRN TN/NRN AL.
HOWEVER...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
SUNDAY AFTN SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ABOUT 19-23Z FOR ISOLD/SCT STORMS TO
REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH FAIRLY DECENT SHEAR FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR (30-35 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR)...IF WE CAN REALIZE SFC
CAPES ABOVE 1 KJ/KG SEVERE WX WITH ISOLD WIND/ROTATING STORMS IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FCST WILL BE TO BACK OFF ON POPS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NAM/GFS ARE BOTH IN AGREEMENT IN
PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA AFTER 06Z MON. THE SREF GUIDANCE STILL IS A BIT SLOWER...SO
WILL STILL HANG TO LOW POPS FOR NOW. BEYOND MON...ANOTHER FAIRLY
QUIET PERIOD LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH TEMPS
TRENDING TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE THE
U/L RIDGE WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WRN PLAINS/SW UNITED
STATES WITH A WEAK SHEAR AXIS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF
COAST/SOUTHEAST US. THIS MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT WILL WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE
ATTEMPTING TO PIN DOWN ANY SPECIFIC TIMING.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...03/KDW
DISCUSSION...15/CBD
000
FXUS64 KBMX 041133
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
630 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION FORECAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FEATURES TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD COME IN
HERE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IN THE FORM OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
SHOULD HELP TO BRING THE MOST RAINFALL COVERAGE WE`VE SEEN IN A
WEEK OR TWO.
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUE RIGHT ON THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING. IF ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT HOLDS OFF UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON...
THEN CONDITIONS COULD BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE. IN FACT...NAM MODEL
IS FORECASTING MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. PLUS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH SHEAR TO HELP ORGANIZE
STORMS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW STORMS PRODUCED
DAMAGING WINDS.
BIG QUESTION AFTER SUNDAY IS A TYPICAL ONE THIS TIME OF YEAR WHEN
A COLD FRONT TRIES TO PUSH IN -- JUST HOW FAR SOUTH WILL IT GET.
MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED POSITION NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF MGM. THIS WOULD KEEP THE BEST RAIN CHANCES (ALTHOUGH
SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN SUNDAY) IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REALLY TAKES A NOSE DIVE...AND SO WILL SLAP A PRETTY
BROAD BRUSH OF CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
KSL
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 040945
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
440 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST SFC MAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY GENERALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA...STRETCHING FROM INLAND AREAS OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE TO
NEAR GZH AND NORTHWARD. FURTHER NORTH HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
THE WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA STRETCHING SOUTH OVER MUCH OF GA...AL AND
EASTERN MS. ALOFT LATEST UPPER AIR DATA AND SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE
TO SHOW DEEP UPPER TROF NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTING NE`WARD
AWAY FROM EASTERN CONUS. TO THE NW NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT TROF WAS
MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SOUTH OF THIS SYSTEM UPPER
RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS ALLOWING MAIN
SHORT WAVE TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THROUGH TONIGHT THE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROF
DEEPENS OVER TN AND KY WITH A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
SOUTHWARD OVER ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN LA. THIS PATTERN WILL
EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASED LIFT AND A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT NEAR THE SFC ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS FOR TEMPS WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE
THROUGH TONIGHT. HEAT INDICES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 99 F TO THE
EAST AND 105 F TO THE WEST. /32
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY TO THE CENTRAL EAST COAST SUNDAY EVENING
THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. THE SYSTEM BRINGS A WEAK TRAILING
FRONT/SURFACE TROF INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH LINGERS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AND SUPPORTS CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE AID OF THE SEA BREEZE. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
RESULTS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE GONE WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER
CHANCE POPS IN THIS REGION. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF ALABAMA FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF MODESTLY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE CONTINUING
AFTERNOON SUBCLOUD INVERTED V PROFILE...WITH THE PRIMARY RISK BEING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION. A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR REMAINS WELL ALOFT NEAR 500 MB
TO AID DOWNDRAFT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT THIS IS
OVERWHELMED BY CONTINUING MOISTENING OF THE DEEP LAYER PROFILE
SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A FAIRLY MOIST PROFILE BY MONDAY. THIS
INCREASING MOISTURE PORTENDS HIGHER QPF WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION
THAT LINGERS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE SURFACE TROF IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AND WITH THE
SEA BREEZE...LIKELY POPS MAY BE SUPPORTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS AND
LET THE DAYSHIFT REASSESS. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO JUST BELOW OR
AT SEASONABLE LEVELS BY MONDAY. /29
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A
WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE TROF OVER THE
INTERIOR PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO CENTRAL ALABAMA. AS
MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...THIS FEATURE MAY EVENTUALLY
SUPPORT LIKELY POPS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY BUT AM GOING TO HOLD
WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. THE SURFACE TROF MOVES CLOSE TO THE
COAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYNOPTIC NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE SURFACE LOW AND HAVE GONE WITH BETTER POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE TROF FINALLY DISSIPATES
ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A DIFFLUENT
PATTERN EVOLVES ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES DUE TO THE ADVANCING
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF WHICH RESULTS IN
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BOTH DAYS FOR SEA BREEZE INITIATED
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. /29
&&
.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SFC AND INSTABILITY AND LIFT IN THE LOWER TO
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY TONIGHT. /32
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNTIED STATES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER SYSTEM BECOMES BETTERED
ESTABLISHED. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DEEPENS TO THE NORTH. /32
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER THIRTIES OVER THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BUT REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
INCREASE SOMEWHAT THROUGH MONDAY BUT THE LARGER IMPACT IS THE
MODERATING DAYTIME HIGHS WHICH RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES REMAINING WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 96 76 93 74 / 05 10 30 40
PENSACOLA 92 79 92 76 / 20 20 30 40
DESTIN 88 82 90 78 / 20 20 30 40
EVERGREEN 98 71 91 72 / 05 10 40 40
WAYNESBORO 99 71 90 70 / 05 10 30 40
CAMDEN 98 72 92 72 / 05 10 30 50
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 040916
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
416 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FEATURES TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD COME IN
HERE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...IN THE FORM OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
SHOULD HELP TO BRING THE MOST RAINFALL COVERAGE WE`VE SEEN IN A
WEEK OR TWO.
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
CONTINUE RIGHT ON THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING. IF ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT HOLDS OFF UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON...
THEN CONDITIONS COULD BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE. IN FACT...NAM MODEL
IS FORECASTING MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. PLUS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH SHEAR TO HELP ORGANIZE
STORMS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW STORMS PRODUCED
DAMAGING WINDS.
BIG QUESTION AFTER SUNDAY IS A TYPICAL ONE THIS TIME OF YEAR WHEN
A COLD FRONT TRIES TO PUSH IN -- JUST HOW FAR SOUTH WILL IT GET.
MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO AN EAST-WEST OREIENTED POSITION NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF MGM. THIS WOULD KEEP THE BEST RAIN CHANCES (ALTHOUGH
SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN SUNDAY) IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REALLY TAKES A NOSE DIVE...AND SO WILL SLAP A PRETTY
BROAD BRUSH OF CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
10/ARM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 90 70 82 68 88 / 0 30 60 20 10
ANNISTON 92 70 87 69 89 / 0 20 50 30 10
BIRMINGHAM 92 73 86 68 87 / 0 20 60 30 10
TUSCALOOSA 95 72 89 71 90 / 0 20 50 30 10
CALERA 93 73 88 71 88 / 0 10 50 30 10
AUBURN 92 72 91 71 87 / 0 0 30 40 20
MONTGOMERY 95 72 92 73 90 / 0 10 30 40 30
TROY 94 72 93 73 89 / 0 0 30 40 40
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 040709
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
210 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER FAIRLY PLEASANT NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND DWPTS IN THE 50S UNDER A
VEIL OF BKN HIGH CLOUDS. A RECENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW
POSITIONED FROM SRN KANSAS THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE WITH AN
ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX TO THE GULF COAST
REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS WEST TEXAS WITH BROAD NWRLY FLOW ACROSS THE MS/TN
VALLEY REGION.
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EJECT EASTWARD OUT
OF THE PLAINS AND SRLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD ON MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY /PRESUMABLY DUE
TO QUICKER ONSET OF CLOUD COVER/ AND HAVE TRIMMED TEMPS BACK A TAD AS
WELL. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO LOWER/THICKEN BY THIS EVENING...BUT
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE EVENING REMAIN RAIN FREE FOR THE
MAJORITY OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SMALL CHC POP
ACROSS OUR NRN COUNTIES. PRECIP CHANCES REALLY BEGIN TO CLIMB
OVERNIGHT AS SFC/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION.
NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATE SIGNIFICANT LL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UVM IN
THE 09Z-18Z TIME FRAME...BEGINNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THUS...HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
NEXT QUESTION SURROUNDS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS IS INITIALLY PROGGED TO BE FAIRLY STABLE TO SFC BASED
PARCELS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS...ALONG
WITH SHOWALTER AND K-INDICES...DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION. REAL QUESTION BECOMES WHAT /IF ANY/ POTENTIAL THERE
IS FOR SFC BASED DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTN AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. NEWER MODEL RUNS HAVE BOTH SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
FROPA AND TRENDED MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER. THIS TREND
WOULD BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR SVR WX ACROSS SRN TN/NRN AL.
HOWEVER...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
SUNDAY AFTN SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ABOUT 19-23Z FOR ISOLD/SCT STORMS TO
REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH FAIRLY DECENT SHEAR FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR (30-35 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR)...IF WE CAN REALIZE SFC
CAPES ABOVE 1 KJ/KG SEVERE WX WITH ISOLD WIND/ROTATING STORMS IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FCST WILL BE TO BACK OFF ON POPS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NAM/GFS ARE BOTH IN AGREEMENT IN
PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA AFTER 06Z MON. THE SREF GUIDANCE STILL IS A BIT SLOWER...SO
WILL STILL HANG TO LOW POPS FOR NOW. BEYOND MON...ANOTHER FAIRLY
QUIET PERIOD LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH TEMPS
TRENDING TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE THE
U/L RIDGE WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WRN PLAINS/SW UNITED
STATES WITH A WEAK SHEAR AXIS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF
COAST/SOUTHEAST US. THIS MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT WILL WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE
ATTEMPTING TO PIN DOWN ANY SPECIFIC TIMING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 91 70 84 65 88 / 10 50 60 30 20
SHOALS 90 70 84 65 89 / 10 60 60 30 20
CULLMAN 90 70 85 64 87 / 10 50 60 40 20
FAYETTEVILLE 89 69 82 63 88 / 10 60 60 30 20
ALBERTVILLE 89 69 86 65 88 / 10 40 60 40 20
FORT PAYNE 90 68 85 64 86 / 10 40 60 40 20
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
15/CBD
000
FXUS64 KHUN 040520 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1220 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z TAFS/AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA WELL INTO THE MORNING HRS...BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE VFR CRITERIA. SFC WINDS ARE ALSO XPCTED TO TURN MORE SWLY
LATER TODAY ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10
KTS. SHRA/TSTMS SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH THE TN VALLEY FROM THE
WNW AFTER 00Z SUN ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z SUN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE TN VALLEY
AREA FROM THE NW THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY
BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD. THE ONCOMING CLOUD COVER MAY HAVE SOME EFFECT
ON OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT AT THIS POINT GENERALLY FEEL IT WOULD ONLY
BE A DEGREE OR TWO. IN ANY CASE...WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUDINESS AND RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES
IN SOME AREAS. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE FOR NOW.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
09
000
FXUS64 KBMX 040454
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1154 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...JUST MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS TO BETTER COMPLIMENT OBS. ALSO
ALONG THE SAME THEME...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT
NO MAJOR CHANGE FROM AFTERNOON THOUGHTS. UPDATES ON THEIR WAY OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
10/ARM
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 040309
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1000 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...EVENING WEATHER DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...JUST MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS TO BETTER COMPLIMENT OBS. ALSO
ALONG THE SAME THEME...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT
NO MAJOR CHANGE FROM AFTERNOON THOUGHTS. UPDATES ON THEIR WAY OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING
CALM. NO AVIATION PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK
UP AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.
10/ARM
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 040135 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
835 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A TAD
FIRST PERIOD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE TN VALLEY
AREA FROM THE NW THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY
BEGINS TO SHIFT EWD. THE ONCOMING CLOUD COVER MAY HAVE SOME EFFECT
ON OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT AT THIS POINT GENERALLY FEEL IT WOULD ONLY
BE A DEGREE OR TWO. IN ANY CASE...WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUDINESS AND RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES
IN SOME AREAS. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...STARTING TO SEE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO
THE TN VALLEY FROM THE NW AS THE RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WEAKENS. THESE CLOUDS ARE XPCTED TO PERSIST WELL INTO SAT ALTHOUGH
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE VFR CRITERIA. SFC WINDS ARE ALSO
XCPETD TO TURN MORE SWLY ON SAT ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
09
000
FXUS64 KBMX 040008
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
708 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY.
OVERALL A FAIRLY COMFORTABLE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...
CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN INTO THE MIDDLE 90S. LOWER DEW
POINTS ARE HELPING IN THIS CATEGORY ALLOWING FOR THE AIR NOT TO BE
AS SOUPY AS IT WAS LAST WEEK. THIS IS ALL DUE TO CONTINUED DRY AIR
WHICH HAS BEEN FILTERED INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AHEAD OF A UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. WE WON`T GET TOO COMFORTABLE THOUGH...AS THIS RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND GIVE WAY
TO THE TRICKLE OF GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE STATE BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS IS...THE MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF JUST LONG
ENOUGH FOR FIREWORKS ENTHUSIASTS TO ENJOY THE MANY INDEPENDENCE
DAY CELEBRATIONS ACROSS THE STATE. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THESE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ARE GOING TO SIGNAL
THE BEGINNING OF A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE THAT HAS BEEN LONG
OVERDUE. THOUGH TEMPORARY...IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH OVER A 3 DAY PERIOD
FOR EVERYONE TO GET SOME WATER ON THEIR LAWNS.
STARTING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS THE ATMOSPHERE
WARMS...ALLOWING FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO REACH AT LEAST THE
STRONG CATEGORY...AND MAYBE EVEN HAVE A CHANCE AT A FEW ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS. SUNDAY`S MAIN WEATHER THREATS WILL CENTER AROUND
STRONG WIND GUSTS.
SUNDAY`S ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF A MODERATELY STRONG...SLOW MOVING...
BOUNDARY THAT IS PROGGED TO DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE MONDAY MORNING. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
STRENGTH BEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN. HERE IS WHERE THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL
IN THE FORECAST STARTS TO DECREASE...MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST 24-36 HOURS ON THIS FACT...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HAVE PW LEVELS AOA 2 INCHES BY MONDAY. IF THIS DOES IN FACT
VERIFY...DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY MID LEVEL DRY AIR...STORMS THAT
DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS MIXED IN RATHER THAN WIND OR HAIL
PRODUCERS.
THE NEXT FORECAST PROBLEM COMES WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS BOUNDARY EXITS
THE STATE. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM/EURO HAVE IT
BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ON TUESDAY...AND GIVING THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS WE TALK ABOUT OFTEN...PERSISTENCE USUALLY WINS OUT IN
THE SUMMER...AND WITHOUT MUCH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DRIVING FORCE TO
SCOOP IT OUT OF THE AREA...THIS BOUNDARY COULD VERY WELL STICK
AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAVE GONE WITH THIS SOLUTION OF THE
BOUNDARY BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH MIDWEEK...GIVING MOST
EVERYONE A SHOT AT SOME RAIN AND THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES AT
BAY AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
27
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING
CALM. NO AVIATION PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK
UP AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.
10/ARM
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
27/10
000
FXUS64 KHUN 032319 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
620 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAFS/AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.DISCUSSION...STARTING TO SEE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO
THE TN VALLEY FROM THE NW AS THE RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WEAKENS. THESE CLOUDS ARE XPCTED TO PERSIST WELL INTO SAT ALTHOUGH
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE VFR CRITERIA. SFC WINDS ARE ALSO
XCPETD TO TURN MORE SWLY ON SAT ALTHOUGH SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS OFF TO A WARM...BUT GENERALLY
PLEASANT START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY
AS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. CHALLENGE FOR THIS
FORECAST MIRRORS THE CHALLENGE OF THE LAST FEW FORECASTS...THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION...AS WELL AS WHAT TO DO WITH
THE FRONT DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AREA CONTINUES TO BE SQUEEZED IN AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND AN UPPER
TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
DOWN AND ELONGATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...OPENING THE DOOR FOR
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA. AS IT LOOKS
CURRENTLY...BELIEVE THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
THE FRONT...AND A LINE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WILL
ENTER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST FIREWORKS SHOW
ARE SAFE FOR DURING THE EVENING...BUT THINK MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE RAINFALL BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. BELIEVE THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONFINED TO MAINLY WIND AND HAIL
THREATS.
BIG QUESTIONS ARE STARTING TO EMERGE WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH BEFORE STALLING...AND HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL
OCCUR HERE. THE LATEST MID RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BOUNDARY
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE AREA UNTIL A SECOND LOW FORMS ALONG THE FRONT
AND HELPS IT CLEAR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. NOT SOLD ON THIS
SOLUTION QUITE YET...ALTHOUGH IF THIS DOES OCCUR WE MAY HAVE
SHOWERS AND CLOUDY WEATHER IN THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK.
REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE FRONT DOES EARLY IN THE WEEK...AFTER
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD CUT THE RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE MID 90S...IF NOT HIGHER BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...09
DISCUSSION...JMC.34
000
FXUS64 KHUN 032019
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
319 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS OFF TO A WARM...BUT GENERALLY PLEASANT
START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY AS A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. CHALLENGE FOR THIS FORECAST
MIRRORS THE CHALLENGE OF THE LAST FEW FORECASTS...THE TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION...AS WELL AS WHAT TO DO WITH THE FRONT
DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AREA CONTINUES TO BE SQUEEZED IN AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND AN UPPER TROF
OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
DOWN AND ELONGATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...OPENING THE DOOR FOR
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA. AS IT LOOKS
CURRENTLY...BELIEVE THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
THE FRONT...AND A LINE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WILL
ENTER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST FIREWORKS SHOW
ARE SAFE FOR DURING THE EVENING...BUT THINK MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE RAINFALL BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. BELIEVE THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONFINED TO MAINLY WIND AND HAIL
THREATS.
BIG QUESTIONS ARE STARTING TO EMERGE WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH BEFORE STALLING...AND HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL
OCCUR HERE. THE LATEST MID RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BOUNDARY
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE AREA UNTIL A SECOND LOW FORMS ALONG THE FRONT
AND HELPS IT CLEAR THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. NOT SOLD ON THIS
SOLUTION QUITE YET...ALTHOUGH IF THIS DOES OCCUR WE MAY HAVE
SHOWERS AND CLOUDY WEATHER IN THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK.
REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE FRONT DOES EARLY IN THE WEEK...AFTER
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD CUT THE RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE MID 90S...IF NOT HIGHER BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 64 92 73 89 67 / 0 10 40 50 30
SHOALS 62 93 71 89 67 / 0 10 40 50 30
CULLMAN 62 91 73 90 66 / 0 10 40 40 40
FAYETTEVILLE 61 90 72 87 65 / 0 10 50 50 30
ALBERTVILLE 64 93 73 91 67 / 0 10 40 40 40
FORT PAYNE 59 91 70 90 66 / 0 10 40 50 40
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
JMC.34.SYN
CA.12.MES
000
FXUS64 KMOB 032018
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
318 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)THE FORECAST IS SHAPING
UP TO BE A FOLLOW THE BEST MOISTURE KIND OF ONE. FIRST...TAKING A
LOOK AT THE CURRENT ANALYSIS OVER THE CONUS AND SURROUNDING
AREAS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER TX...WITH A
TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY...OVER EASTERN CA...THEN OVER
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
WAS ANALYZED RUNNING SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH QUITE A BIT
OF SHORTWAVES SWIRLING THROUGH THE FLOW. IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED OVER THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY...WITH A SURFACE FRONT STRETCHING FROM WESTERN KS...TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...THEN NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS IS MOVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BEHIND THIS
FRONT. PRECIP H20 VALUES REPORTED AT KFFC...0.89"...1.04" AT
KBMX...AND A LITTLE OVER 1.8" AT KLIX AND KTAE. LOOKING AT THE GOES
PRECIP H20 PLOT...THE ADVANCE OF THE DRY AIR HAS SLOWED DURING THE
DAY...AND IS TAKING A MORE EASTERLY JOG...MAINLY DUE TO THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ALL REPORTED BY THE UPPER AIR STATION ALONG
THE I-20 CORRIDOR EAST OF THE MISS RIVER. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF
COAST...DEW POINTS ON THE LATEST OBS ARE STILL PRETTY HIGH..IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S...WHILST MOVING INLAND...DEWPOINTS QUICKLY DROP TO THE
MID 60S NORTH OF I10...UPPER 50S OVER NORTHERN REACHES OF THE FA. AM
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TO SEE IF ANY DEVELOPMENT
FIRES ALONG THE GULF BREEZE STRUGGLING TO MOVE INLAND.
TONIGHT...HAVE CONFINED ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN TO SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE FA...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE LEVELS. AM RESERVING THE RIGHT TO
MODIFY AT THE LAST MINUTE DEPENDING UPON ANY DEVELOPMENT. WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FA...AM EXPECTING
ANOTHER COMFORTABLE NIGHT OVER MOST OF THE FA. MAV GOING GENERALLY
COOLER IN THE DRIER AREAS...WARMER IN THE MOISTER AREAS. FEEL THAT
WITH THE DRIER AIR PUSH SEEMINGLY STALLED IN ITS SOUTHWARD
PUSH...HAVE WENT A BIT ABOVE THE MAV GUIDANCE FEELING THAT WITH MORE
ENERGY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM THE EXTRA MOISTURE COOLING.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AS SOME UPPER ENERGY BEGINS
PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY
WILL GET PUSHED EAST...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY.
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE BETTER PERFORMING NAM WITH THE POPS...WITH
THE GFS CONSISTENTLY UNDER-DOING THE POPS ALONG THE COAST. FOR
TEMPS...MAV/MET IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...HAVE DEVIATED
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS.
FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CREATED BY THE
PASSING UPPER ENERGY PUSHES SOUTH TOWARDS...THEN OVER THE FA...NAM IS
A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE FRONT BY MONDAY MORN...PUSHING THE FRONT
TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...THE GFS FARTHER INLAND JUST SOUTH OF
I20. WITH THE FRONT PUSHING FARTHER SOUTH...AND MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH
IN THE NAM...POPS ARE PREDICTABLY HIGHER THAN THE GFS. HAVE WENT A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH THE POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPS...HAVE
PRETTY MUCH STUCK WITH GUIDANCE...WITH MAV/MET IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)GUIDANCE DIVERGES A BIT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER TH
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW
NORTH OF THE GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST. ECMWF DOES NOT
HAVE THIS FEATURE. CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS FEATURE IS PRETTY MUCH
BOGUS...AND TAKING THE APPROACH OF A FRONT SAGGING SOUTH OVER THE
FA...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR TSRA GENERATION...ALONG WITH A GULF
BREEZE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BOTH ECMWF/GFS ADVERTISING THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY MID WEEK.
WITH CURRENT MEX GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS RUN
AND 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN...SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS ARE IN STORE
FOR THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(A8Z ISSUANCE)MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE 4TH...A
POSSIBILITY OF VERY ISOLATED BUT POSSIBLY STRONG STORMS RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF SO...BRIEF IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH GUSTY SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS AND STRONG TO SEVERE TURBULENCE
WITHIN 15 MILES OF STORMS. /11
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTED SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING BUT WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR RETURN NORTH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS NEAR SHORE WERE EITHER LIGHT NORTHERLY OR LIGHT
WESTERLY...WILL BE SWITCHING TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL CYCLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH WIND
SPEEDS NO MORE THAN 10 TO 15 KNOTS...AWAY FROM VERY ISOLATED
CONVECTION. WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK...MORE SO
FARTHER OUT...AS A TROPICAL WAVE SLIDES WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE CLOSED SURFACE LOW SHOWN BY THE GFS MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES THE FIRST OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH
THERE SHOULD BE A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH JUST INLAND DURING THAT TIME
FRAME...WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /11
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO
SATURDAY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST...ONSHORE FLOW
ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN. A FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF MONDAY...WHICH WILL SETTLE ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 74 96 76 94 76 / 10 30 20 30 40
PENSACOLA 77 94 79 93 77 / 10 20 20 30 30
DESTIN 76 92 80 92 78 / 05 10 10 30 30
EVERGREEN 63 97 74 94 73 / 05 10 10 30 30
WAYNESBORO 64 99 72 94 71 / 05 20 10 30 40
CAMDEN 64 97 74 96 72 / 05 10 10 30 40
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
11/16
000
FXUS64 KBMX 032001
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
301 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY.
OVERALL A FAIRLY COMFORTABLE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...
CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN INTO THE MIDDLE 90S. LOWER DEW
POINTS ARE HELPING IN THIS CATEGORY ALLOWING FOR THE AIR NOT TO BE
AS SOUPY AS IT WAS LAST WEEK. THIS IS ALL DUE TO CONTINUED DRY AIR
WHICH HAS BEEN FILTERED INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AHEAD OF A UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. WE WON`T GET TOO COMFORTABLE THOUGH...AS THIS RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND GIVE WAY
TO THE TRICKLE OF GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE STATE BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS IS...THE MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF JUST LONG
ENOUGH FOR FIREWORKS ENTHUSIASTS TO ENJOY THE MANY INDEPENDENCE
DAY CELEBRATIONS ACROSS THE STATE. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THESE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ARE GOING TO SIGNAL
THE BEGINNING OF A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE THAT HAS BEEN LONG
OVERDUE. THOUGH TEMPORARY...IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH OVER A 3 DAY PERIOD
FOR EVERYONE TO GET SOME WATER ON THEIR LAWNS.
STARTING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS THE ATMOSPHERE
WARMS...ALLOWING FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO REACH AT LEAST THE
STRONG CATEGORY...AND MAYBE EVEN HAVE A CHANCE AT A FEW ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS. SUNDAY`S MAIN WEATHER THREATS WILL CENTER AROUND
STRONG WIND GUSTS.
SUNDAY`S ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF A MODERATELY STRONG...SLOW MOVING...
BOUNDARY THAT IS PROGGED TO DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE MONDAY MORNING. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
STRENGTH BEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN. HERE IS WHERE THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL
IN THE FORECAST STARTS TO DECREASE...MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST 24-36 HOURS ON THIS FACT...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE PW LEVELS AOA 2 INCHES BY MONDAY. IF THIS DOES IN FACT
VERIFY...DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY MID LEVEL DRY AIR...STORMS THAT
DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS MIXED IN RATHER THAN WIND OR
HAIL PRODUCERS.
THE NEXT FORECAST PROBLEM COMES WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS BOUNDARY EXITS
THE STATE. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM/EURO HAVE IT
BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ON TUESDAY...AND GIVING THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS WE TALK ABOUT OFTEN...PERSISTENCE USUALLY WINS OUT IN
THE SUMMER...AND WITHOUT MUCH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DRIVING FORCE TO
SCOOP IT OUT OF THE AREA...THIS BOUNDARY COULD VERY WELL STICK
AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK. HAVE GONE WITH THIS SOLUTION OF THE
BOUNDARY BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH MIDWEEK...GIVING MOST
EVERYONE A SHOT AT SOME RAIN AND THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES AT
BAY AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
27
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT CLOUD
COVER. NORTH WINDS 8-12 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER 00Z.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 67 91 68 90 70 / 10 0 20 50 50
ANNISTON 66 91 70 90 71 / 10 0 20 50 50
BIRMINGHAM 68 93 71 92 72 / 10 0 20 40 50
TUSCALOOSA 68 95 71 93 73 / 0 0 20 40 50
CALERA 67 93 71 93 71 / 10 0 10 40 50
AUBURN 67 94 70 92 71 / 0 0 10 30 40
MONTGOMERY 69 96 70 93 73 / 10 0 10 30 40
TROY 69 95 71 92 73 / 0 0 10 30 40
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
27/58
000
FXUS64 KHUN 031746 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1246 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE LGT/VRB. WITH
SUCH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE INHIBITED
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 1027 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/...
AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL START TO THE DAY THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HAVE RISEN TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MOST
LOCATIONS. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AGAIN TODAY...
ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S. OTHER THAN A FEW CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE.
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLES THIS WELL...SO NO CHANGES WERE
MADE.
UPDATED ZONES OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
12
000
FXUS64 KBMX 031733
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1235 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...TODAYS WEATHER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WILL PRODUCE A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
NORTH ALABAMA THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MIX DOWNWARD.
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER HAS ALSO RESULTED IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN SAME TIME YESTERDAY. MAIN CHANGE TO TODAYS
FORECAST WAS TO LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS...BUT ALSO LOWERED HIGHS
SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.
58/ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT CLOUD
COVER. NORTH WINDS 8-12 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER 00Z.
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 031728 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION UPDATE FOR 03/18Z...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE 4TH...A
POSSIBILITY OF VERY ISOLATED BUT POSSIBLY STRONG STORMS RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF SO...BRIEF IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH GUSTY SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS AND STRONG TO SEVERE TURBULENCE
WITHIN 15 MILES OF STORMS. /11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 96 72 98 77 / 05 05 20 20
PENSACOLA 96 75 94 78 / 10 10 20 20
DESTIN 94 77 93 80 / 20 10 20 20
EVERGREEN 96 65 97 73 / 05 05 20 20
WAYNESBORO 98 66 99 73 / 05 05 20 20
CAMDEN 96 66 98 74 / 05 05 20 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 031527
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1027 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL START TO THE DAY THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HAVE RISEN TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN MOST
LOCATIONS. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AGAIN TODAY...
ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S. OTHER THAN A FEW CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE.
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE HANDLES THIS WELL...SO NO CHANGES WERE
MADE.
UPDATED ZONES OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION.../FOR 12Z TAFS/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE N-NE AS MIXING BEGINS AFTER
~14Z...WITH SOME GUSTINESS TO ARND 20 KTS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING EARLY
THIS AFTN. LGT/VRB WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE PASSES
OVHD...BUT AIRMASS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO INHIBIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
&&
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
UNSEASONABLY DRY...AND ACTUALLY A BIT COOL...SUMMERTIME WEATHER
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY. EARLY MORNING TEMPS
ARE FAIRLY COMPARABLE TO YESTERDAY...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS THAT
HAVE NOT DECOUPLED YET. FORECAST CHANGES ARE ON THE HORIZON...
INCLUDING OUR FIRST RAIN IN NEARLY THREE WEEKS.
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE DRY AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN OVER OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. EFFICIENT
WARMING IS AGAIN LIKELY TODAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 DESPITE THE
RELATIVELY COOL START. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
THE COOLER VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
ON SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW BEGINS...WHICH IS ALWAYS A
SHARP WARMING TREND. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SKYROCKET
SATURDAY...AND IN FACT...HINT AT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S. WILL
NOT GO QUITE THAT WARM YET BUT DID GO INTO THE LOW/MID 90S WITH
MSUNNY/PCLDY SKIES. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED POP-UP THUNDERSTORM
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER SRN TN OR NW AL GIVEN THAT A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH...BUT OTHERWISE HAVE REMOVED ALL
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
AFTER SUNSET...THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE. SFC FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
DURING THE NIGHT. BULK OF THE PCPN WILL STAY OVER TN/KY...BUT THERE
ARE SOME HINTS OF STORM DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM THAT COULD PROPAGATE
INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL FOCUS POPS AFTER 06Z AND REALLY
INCREASE THE DEWPTS/HUMIDITY.
OPERATIONAL GFS FOR SUNDAY LOOKS RATHER FISHY...WITH SHORTWAVES
MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA BUT ALL THE QPF DISPLACED NORTH. NAM IS
EQUALLY FISHY PUSHING EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH. ENSEMBLES (BOTH GFS
AND SREF) FOCUS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP AXIS OVER OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY...AND HIGHEST CORRESPONDING POPS. WILL KEEP THE LIKELY
MENTION ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND DISREGARD THE LOWER MODEL POPS
FROM THE GFS/NAM.
EXTENDED (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED...THE SFC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
LOSE UPPER SUPPORT AND START TO STALL. THE BIG QUESTIONS ARE WHERE
AND WHEN WILL THAT OCCUR...AND THE COMPUTER MODELS KEEP CHANGING
THEIR MINDS ABOUT THAT. PEEKING AT ENSEMBLES...THE SREF REALLY STOPS
THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS PRETTY MUCH OVER OUR AREA...AND DITTO FOR THE
GFS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME POPS
THROUGH THAT ENTIRE TIMEFRAME...AND HAVE THEM HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHICH ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT.
00Z GFS HAS GIVEN UP ON THE IDEA OF A COMPLETE FROPA AT ALL...
EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT THE FRONT AFTER MIDWEEK. ENSEMBLES/ENSEMBLE
MEAN DO NOT DISAGREE...AND SO WILL TAKE THIS IDEA THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE 24-36 HOURS WHERE LOWER DEWPOINTS
DO FILTER INTO THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHEN THAT WILL BE IS TOO
LOW TO PINPOINT...SO WILL HOLD DEWPOINTS NO LOWER THAN THE MID 60S.
WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TAPERING OFF POPS...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TN
RIVER ON WEDNESDAY...AND DRY EVERYWHERE BY THURSDAY. THIS MAY
ULTIMATELY PROVE TO BE A DAY TOO SLOW...BUT I NEED MORE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY BEFORE I CAN KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
THERE IS GROWING CONSENSUS OF AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER AGAIN BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK...SO WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...WITH
MID 90S POSSIBLE AGAIN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...12
AVIATION...KDW/03
PREV DISCUSSION...JE/23
000
FXUS64 KBMX 031524
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1025 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...TODAYS WEATHER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WILL PRODUCE A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
NORTH ALABAMA THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MIX DOWNWARD.
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER HAS ALSO RESULTED IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN SAME TIME YESTERDAY. MAIN CHANGE TO TODAYS
FORECAST WAS TO LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS...BUT ALSO LOWERED HIGHS
SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.
58/ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
FOG...WITH VIS AT 6SM...AT TOI WILL LIFT BY 13Z. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER AVIATION PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.
14
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 031144 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
644 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BE N-NE AS MIXING BEGINS AFTER
~14Z...WITH SOME GUSTINESS TO ARND 20 KTS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING EARLY
THIS AFTN. LGT/VRB WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE PASSES
OVHD...BUT AIRMASS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO INHIBIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
UNSEASONABLY DRY...AND ACTUALLY A BIT COOL...SUMMERTIME WEATHER
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY. EARLY MORNING TEMPS
ARE FAIRLY COMPARABLE TO YESTERDAY...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS THAT
HAVE NOT DECOUPLED YET. FORECAST CHANGES ARE ON THE HORIZON...
INCLUDING OUR FIRST RAIN IN NEARLY THREE WEEKS.
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE DRY AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN OVER OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. EFFICIENT
WARMING IS AGAIN LIKELY TODAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 DESPITE THE
RELATIVELY COOL START. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
THE COOLER VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
ON SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW BEGINS...WHICH IS ALWAYS A
SHARP WARMING TREND. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SKYROCKET
SATURDAY...AND IN FACT...HINT AT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S. WILL
NOT GO QUITE THAT WARM YET BUT DID GO INTO THE LOW/MID 90S WITH
MSUNNY/PCLDY SKIES. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED POP-UP THUNDERSTORM
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER SRN TN OR NW AL GIVEN THAT A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH...BUT OTHERWISE HAVE REMOVED ALL
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
AFTER SUNSET...THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE. SFC FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
DURING THE NIGHT. BULK OF THE PCPN WILL STAY OVER TN/KY...BUT THERE
ARE SOME HINTS OF STORM DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM THAT COULD PROPAGATE
INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL FOCUS POPS AFTER 06Z AND REALLY
INCREASE THE DEWPTS/HUMIDITY.
OPERATIONAL GFS FOR SUNDAY LOOKS RATHER FISHY...WITH SHORTWAVES
MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA BUT ALL THE QPF DISPLACED NORTH. NAM IS
EQUALLY FISHY PUSHING EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH. ENSEMBLES (BOTH GFS
AND SREF) FOCUS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP AXIS OVER OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY...AND HIGHEST CORRESPONDING POPS. WILL KEEP THE LIKELY
MENTION ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND DISREGARD THE LOWER MODEL POPS
FROM THE GFS/NAM.
EXTENDED (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED...THE SFC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
LOSE UPPER SUPPORT AND START TO STALL. THE BIG QUESTIONS ARE WHERE
AND WHEN WILL THAT OCCUR...AND THE COMPUTER MODELS KEEP CHANGING
THEIR MINDS ABOUT THAT. PEEKING AT ENSEMBLES...THE SREF REALLY STOPS
THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS PRETTY MUCH OVER OUR AREA...AND DITTO FOR THE
GFS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME POPS
THROUGH THAT ENTIRE TIMEFRAME...AND HAVE THEM HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHICH ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT.
00Z GFS HAS GIVEN UP ON THE IDEA OF A COMPLETE FROPA AT ALL...
EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT THE FRONT AFTER MIDWEEK. ENSEMBLES/ENSEMBLE
MEAN DO NOT DISAGREE...AND SO WILL TAKE THIS IDEA THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE 24-36 HOURS WHERE LOWER DEWPOINTS
DO FILTER INTO THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHEN THAT WILL BE IS TOO
LOW TO PINPOINT...SO WILL HOLD DEWPOINTS NO LOWER THAN THE MID 60S.
WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TAPERING OFF POPS...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TN
RIVER ON WEDNESDAY...AND DRY EVERYWHERE BY THURSDAY. THIS MAY
ULTIMATELY PROVE TO BE A DAY TOO SLOW...BUT I NEED MORE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY BEFORE I CAN KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
THERE IS GROWING CONSENSUS OF AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER AGAIN BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK...SO WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...WITH
MID 90S POSSIBLE AGAIN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...KDW/03
DISCUSSION...JE/23
000
FXUS64 KBMX 031129
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
629 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST
UNTIL LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN WEAK IMPULSE COULD APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. EXPECT FIREWORKS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT TO GO OFF AS PLANNED AS ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS WOULD PROBABLY
OCCUR TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
TODAY AND INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S...THEN UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SATURDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MORE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. EXPECT MOISTURE TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOMES MORE ENHANCED. IN ADDITION WEAK IMPULSE WILL PASS JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA-WIDE WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH. A
FEW STRONG STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR DUE TO BETTER UPPER SUPPORT WITH
GUSTY WINDS AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
REMAINING IN PLACE...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
EACH DAY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY BUT AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE MORE NUMEROUS TYPE WORDING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CAN BE EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
50
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
FOG...WITH VIS AT 6SM...AT TOI WILL LIFT BY 13Z. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER AVIATION PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.
14
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 91 67 91 68 90 / 0 10 10 20 50
ANNISTON 91 66 91 70 90 / 0 10 10 20 50
BIRMINGHAM 93 68 93 71 92 / 0 10 10 20 40
TUSCALOOSA 95 68 95 73 93 / 0 0 10 20 40
CALERA 93 67 93 71 93 / 0 10 10 10 40
AUBURN 94 67 94 70 92 / 0 0 10 10 30
MONTGOMERY 96 69 96 72 93 / 0 10 10 10 30
TROY 95 69 95 71 92 / 0 0 10 10 30
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 030936
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
435 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST SFC MAP SHOWS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM JUST SOUTH OF MGM TO NORTH OF KMOB
TO JUST SOUTH OF KMCB. ALOFT MID TO UPPER TROF FROM MAIN CUTOFF LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN
LESS MID FORCING OR LIFT FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY A MIX OF THE GFS AND RUC DEPICT LESS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING
HOURS...THOUGH SUGGESTING MAYBE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
NEAR THE NWFL COAST THIS MORNING MOSTLY FROM FROM DIURNAL EFFECTS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND A POSSIBLE WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
POSITIONED JUST TO THE SOUTH. AS FOR TEMPS WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES AROUND 102 NEAR THE
COAST... RANGING FROM 96 TO 101 DEGREES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWFA. /32
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS MISSOURI AND
AIDED INITIALLY BY THE SEA BREEZE. MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW
DAYS...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY AND INDICATE HIGH BASED CLOUDS
WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. ALTHOUGH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE PROFILE KEEP
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ABOVE 12 KFT...THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND INVERTED
V CONDITION SUBCLOUD PORTENDS GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS. WITH ANOTHER
HOT DAY IN STORE SATURDAY AND THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND INLAND
WEAK TROF...WILL INCLUDE SMALL AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WHILE CONTINUING EASTWARD ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY BUT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE CIRCULATION WITH
THIS FEATURE MANAGES TO MOVE THE WEAK SURFACE TROF BACK SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS WELL. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES MEANWHILE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR TWO INCHES AND COMMENSURATELY MORE
FAVORABLE MODEL SOUNDINGS...BUT STILL WITH THE INVERTED V STRUCTURE
SUPPORTING GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS. WITH THE SEA BREEZE...INLAND
BOUNDARY AND MORE FAVORABLE SOUNDING PROFILE...CHANCE POPS ARE
SUPPORTED FOR THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE LATTER
MAINLY FOR LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
CLIMB INTO THE MID SEVENTIES ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN HEAT INDICIES UP
TO NEAR 110 AT SOME LOCATIONS. /29
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
LINGERS OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA DUE TO SYNOPTIC SCALE
CIRCULATIONS AROUND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE GULF. THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES BY
WEDNESDAY AS LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS STRENGTHENS
AND ADVANCES STEADILY EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A DEEP LAYER
SOUTHERLY FLOW COMING TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A SEA
BREEZE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EACH DAY...PROGRESSING FURTHER INLAND
WITH THE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS
HIGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 2 TO 2.25 INCHES AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS LOOK MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE. WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST AREA BUT EXPECT THE BULK OF
THE CONVECTION TO OCCUR MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. /29
&&
.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE MOSTLY NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE. A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.
/32
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH SUNDAY THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND SEABREEZE EFFECTS. /32
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DESPITE HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL CLIMB THROUGH SUNDAY AND KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 96 72 98 77 / 05 05 20 20
PENSACOLA 96 75 94 78 / 10 10 20 20
DESTIN 94 77 93 80 / 20 10 20 20
EVERGREEN 96 65 97 73 / 05 05 20 20
WAYNESBORO 98 66 99 73 / 05 05 20 20
CAMDEN 96 66 98 74 / 05 05 20 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 030825
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
325 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY DRY...AND ACTUALLY A BIT COOL...SUMMERTIME WEATHER
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY. EARLY MORNING TEMPS
ARE FAIRLY COMPARABLE TO YESTERDAY...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS THAT
HAVE NOT DECOUPLED YET. FORECAST CHANGES ARE ON THE HORIZON...
INCLUDING OUR FIRST RAIN IN NEARLY THREE WEEKS.
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE DRY AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN OVER OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. EFFICIENT
WARMING IS AGAIN LIKELY TODAY...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 DESPITE THE
RELATIVELY COOL START. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
THE COOLER VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
ON SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW BEGINS...WHICH IS ALWAYS A
SHARP WARMING TREND. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SKYROCKET
SATURDAY...AND IN FACT...HINT AT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S. WILL
NOT GO QUITE THAT WARM YET BUT DID GO INTO THE LOW/MID 90S WITH
MSUNNY/PCLDY SKIES. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED POP-UP THUNDERSTORM
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER SRN TN OR NW AL GIVEN THAT A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH...BUT OTHERWISE HAVE REMOVED ALL
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON INDPENDENCE DAY.
AFTER SUNSET...THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE. SFC FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
DURING THE NIGHT. BULK OF THE PCPN WILL STAY OVER TN/KY...BUT THERE
ARE SOME HINTS OF STORM DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM THAT COULD PROPAGATE
INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL FOCUS POPS AFTER 06Z AND REALLY
INCREASE THE DEWPTS/HUMIDITY.
OPERATIONAL GFS FOR SUNDAY LOOKS RATHER FISHY...WITH SHORTWAVES
MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA BUT ALL THE QPF DISPLACED NORTH. NAM IS
EQUALLY FISHY PUSHING EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTH. ENSEMBLES (BOTH GFS
AND SREF) FOCUS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP AXIS OVER OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY...AND HIGHEST CORRESPONDING POPS. WILL KEEP THE LIKELY
MENTION ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND DISREGARD THE LOWER MODEL POPS
FROM THE GFS/NAM.
EXTENDED (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED...THE SFC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
LOSE UPPER SUPPORT AND START TO STALL. THE BIG QUESTIONS ARE WHERE
AND WHEN WILL THAT OCCUR...AND THE COMPUTER MODELS KEEP CHANGING
THEIR MINDS ABOUT THAT. PEEKING AT ENSEMBLES...THE SREF REALLY STOPS
THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS PRETTY MUCH OVER OUR AREA...AND DITTO FOR THE
GFS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME POPS
THROUGH THAT ENTIRE TIMEFRAME...AND HAVE THEM HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHICH ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT.
00Z GFS HAS GIVEN UP ON THE IDEA OF A COMPLETE FROPA AT ALL...
EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT THE FRONT AFTER MIDWEEK. ENSEMBLES/ENSEMBLE
MEAN DO NOT DISAGREE...AND SO WILL TAKE THIS IDEA THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE 24-36 HOURS WHERE LOWER DEWPOINTS
DO FILTER INTO THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHEN THAT WILL BE IS TOO
LOW TO PINPOINT...SO WILL HOLD DEWPOINTS NO LOWER THAN THE MID 60S.
WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TAPERING OFF POPS...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TN
RIVER ON WEDNESDAY...AND DRY EVERYWHERE BY THURSDAY. THIS MAY
ULTIMATELY PROVE TO BE A DAY TOO SLOW...BUT I NEED MORE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY BEFORE I CAN KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
THERE IS GROWING CONSENSUS OF AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER AGAIN BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK...SO WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...WITH
MID 90S POSSIBLE AGAIN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 90 63 94 72 90 / 0 0 10 40 60
SHOALS 91 61 95 70 90 / 0 0 10 40 60
CULLMAN 88 61 93 72 91 / 0 0 10 40 60
FAYETTEVILLE 87 60 92 71 88 / 0 0 10 50 60
ALBERTVILLE 90 63 95 72 92 / 0 0 10 30 60
FORT PAYNE 89 58 93 69 91 / 0 0 10 40 60
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
JE/23
000
FXUS64 KBMX 030806
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
258 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST
UNTIL LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN WEAK IMPULSE COULD APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. EXPECT FIREWORKS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT TO GO OFF AS PLANNED AS ANY RAIN THAT DEVELOPS WOULD PROBABLY
OCCUR TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
TODAY AND INDEPENDENCE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S...THEN UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SATURDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MORE ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. EXPECT MOISTURE TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOMES MORE ENHANCED. IN ADDITION WEAK IMPULSE WILL PASS JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA-WIDE WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH. A
FEW STRONG STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR DUE TO BETTER UPPER SUPPORT WITH
GUSTY WINDS AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES
REMAINING IN PLACE...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
EACH DAY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY BUT AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE MORE NUMEROUS TYPE WORDING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CAN BE EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BASICALLY LEFT THE FORECAST INTACT. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
VISIBILITIES AROUND 6 MILES AT TROY...BUT NOTHING THAT WILL HAVE A
MAJOR IMPACT. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER AVIATION PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.
10/ARM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 91 67 91 68 90 / 0 10 10 20 50
ANNISTON 91 66 91 70 90 / 0 10 10 20 50
BIRMINGHAM 93 68 93 71 92 / 0 10 10 20 40
TUSCALOOSA 95 68 95 73 93 / 0 0 10 20 40
CALERA 93 67 93 71 93 / 0 10 10 10 40
AUBURN 94 67 94 70 92 / 0 0 10 10 30
MONTGOMERY 96 69 96 72 93 / 0 10 10 10 30
TROY 95 69 95 71 92 / 0 0 10 10 30
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
50
000
FXUS64 KHUN 030521 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1220 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z TAFS/AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE WX CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS LATE EVENING. THIS
PATTERN IS XPCTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS XPCTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WEAK SFC TROUGH OR REINFORCEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
IS IMPACTING WX CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING UNDER MOSTLY
CLR SKIES. SFC WINDS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO FALL OFF OVER THE NEXT
FEW HRS WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY DECREASING UNDER SEMI GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. DEW PTS THUS FAR ARE RUNNING AROUND 60 AND THESE
VALUES SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE INTO THE MORNING HRS FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS
LOOK TO FALL CLOSE TO CURRENT DEW PT TRENDS...BUT MORE THAN LIKELY
REMAIN JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE PRESENT READINGS. CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE LOOKS TO HAVE THE ONGOING WX SETUP HANDLED WELL AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
09
000
FXUS64 KBMX 030451
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1150 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA...ITS NOT UNBEARABLE TO BE OUTSIDE. THE BOUNDARY
THAT WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE YESTERDAY HAS DIPPED
DOWN TOWARDS THE GULF COAST AND WE ARE SEEING SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG IT...BUT THESE SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR
AREA...KEEPING THE GROUND DRY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE FILTERS IN MORE DRY AIR BEGINNING TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW AS THE DRY AIR WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB.
MODELS HAVE RETURN FLOW BEGINNING ON SATURDAY...BUT THIS WHERE
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO WANE IN THE FORECAST. HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING ACROSS THE SOUTH...LEAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF...BUT EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS
EITHER WAY. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN THING FIREWORKS ENTHUSIASTS WILL
HAVE TO FIGHT WITH SATURDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AS SAID ABOVE...CONFIDENCE WANES OUTSIDE OF 72 HOURS. AT THIS POINT
GFS/NAM HAVE A MIRACULOUS AMOUNT OF PWS BY MIDDAY ON SUNDAY...OVER 2
INCHES OR AN INCREASE OF OVER ONE INCH IN AN 18 HOUR PERIOD. THIS
IS NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE INCREASED MOISTURE
AND HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS. SO WILL FORECAST
CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AND DECREASING
CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT FORMS OUT OVER
THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND TREKS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DROPPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE.
IN REGARDS TO HOW STRONG THESE STORMS WILL BE...THE HIGHER PWS
END UP BEING THE MORE LIKELY WE ARE TO HAVE MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
EVENT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN. BUT IF WE
ONLY SEE PWS AROUND 1.5-1.7...WHICH MEANS A LITTLE MORE DRY AIR
FOR STORMS TO FEED OFF OF...WE COULD SEE THE STRENGTH OF THESE
STORMS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW...GOING TO KEEP THE STRONG WORDING IN THE HWO
TO REFLECT THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT.
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...RETURNING DRIER AIR AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT WE`RE
GOING TO NEED TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT THIS FRONT DOES AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK BEFORE WE DRY THINGS OUT. PERSISTENCE USUALLY WINS
OUT...SO STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS.
27
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
BASICALLY LEFT THE FORECAST INTACT. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
VISIBILITIES AROUND 6 MILES AT TROY...BUT NOTHING THAT WILL HAVE A
MAJOR IMPACT. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER AVIATION PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.
10/ARM
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
27/10
000
FXUS64 KMOB 030310 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1010 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.PUBLIC UPDATE (REMAINDER OF TONIGHT)...STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS HAS DISSIPATED
TO ONLY A FEW REMAINING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL (MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT) AS ONLY MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS REMAIN. THE RAIN-COOLED AIR ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS HAS DROPPED TEMPERATURES BELOW THE FORECAST
LOWS...SO WILL HAVE TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS AND ALL
PUBLIC TEXT PRODUCTS SHORTLY. /22
A LIGHTNING STRIKE BROUGHT DOWN WFO MOBILE`S PUBLIC PHONE SYSTEM
THIS EVENING. MAINTENANCE HAS BEEN NOTIFIED AND IS WORKING TO
RESTORE THE SYSTEM...BUT IT IS UNKNOWN HOW LONG THIS WILL TAKE. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE. IN THE INTERIM...NWS MOBILE CAN BE
CONTACTED AT THE FOLLOWING TEMPORARY PHONE NUMBERS:
251 607 9773
251 633 4415
.MARINE UPDATE...WINDS REMAIN A LITTLE ERRATIC AT THE MOMENT WITH
MULTIPLE COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAINING. HOWEVER...A
WESTERLY WIND FLOW SHOULD RESUME SHORTLY...SO OVERALL THE MARINE
FORECAST LOOKS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. WINDS MAY TURN NORTHWEST OVER
MOBILE BAY SO WILL BE MAKING A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /22
...PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...WEAK SFC TROUGH NOTED
OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA HAS SPARKED
SOME SEVERE STORMS OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF NICKEL SIZE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...AND A WIND GUST
TO 70 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT DESTIN...FLIPPING AIRCRAFT AT THE
AIRPORT THERE. NOW HAVE A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST MS AS
WELL...HAIL HAS RECENTLY BEEN REPORTED WITH THOSE DEVELOPING STORMS
AS WELL. THESE STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING...LIKELY
BEING MORE NUMEROUS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THAN THE AREAS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE THAT HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER THIS AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE STABLE WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN
EXPECTED...BUT WILL THEN HAVE A RETURN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL BE VERY HOT AGAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S MOST LOCATIONS...
BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS INTO LONG TERM PERIOD. 12/DS
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...NO CHANGES MADE WITH THIS
AFTERNOONS FCST PACKAGE. 12/DS
&&
.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...WEAK FRONT MOVING SOUTH OVER MS/AL/GA
ATTM WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR TSRA LATER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA. FEEL
RAIN CHANCE WILL BE SQUASHED BY DRIER SLUG OVER THE MS/AL STATE LINE
BY MID/LATE EVENING. 16/SM
&&
.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL CREATE A GENERAL
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW OVER THE AL/NW FL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK
WILL STRENGTHEN THE WINDS SOMEWHAT...WITH MODERATE WINDS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER THE
MARINE AREA...SOME CONTAINING WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 KNOTS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FRIDAY BUT SCATTERED
STORMS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 16/SM
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE A WEAK TROUGH WILL PERSIST
OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
TROUGH...PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAKENING AND
POSSIBLY DRIFT JUST OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF RAIN EACH OF THOSE DAYS. ANY RAINFALL THAT DOES OCCUR INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...BUT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS OVER
FLORIDA THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 73 98 74 97 / 20 05 05 05
PENSACOLA 76 97 76 94 / 20 05 05 05
DESTIN 78 94 77 93 / 20 10 05 05
EVERGREEN 67 96 65 97 / 10 05 05 05
WAYNESBORO 67 98 68 98 / 10 05 05 05
CAMDEN 65 98 67 98 / 10 05 05 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 030236 CCA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
920 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WEAK SFC TROUGH OR REINFORCEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
IS IMPACTING WX CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING UNDER MOSTLY
CLR SKIES. SFC WINDS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO FALL OFF OVER THE NEXT
FEW HRS WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY DECREASING UNDER SEMI GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. DEW PTS THUS FAR ARE RUNNING AROUND 60 AND THESE
VALUES SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE INTO THE MORNING HRS FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS
LOOK TO FALL CLOSE TO CURRENT DEW PT TRENDS...BUT MORE THAN LIKELY
REMAIN JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE PRESENT READINGS. CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE LOOKS TO HAVE THE ONGOING WX SETUP HANDLED WELL AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE WX CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
PATTERN IS XPCTED TO PERSIST WELL INTO FRI WITH VFR CONDITIONS
XPCTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
09
000
FXUS64 KHUN 030217 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
920 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAFS/AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.DISCUSSION...WEAK SFC TROUGH OR REINFORCEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
IS IMPACTING WX CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING UNDER MOSTLY
CLR SKIES. SFC WINDS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO FALL OFF OVER THE NEXT
FEW HRS WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY DECREASING UNDER SEMI GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. DEW PTS THUS FAR ARE RUNNING AROUND 60 AND THESE
VALUES SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE INTO THE MORNING HRS FRI. OVERNIGHT LOWS
LOOK TO FALL CLOSE TO CURRENT DEW PT TRENDS...BUT MORE THAN LIKELY
REMAIN JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE PRESENT READINGS. CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE LOOKS TO HAVE THE ONGOING WX SETUP HANDLED WELL AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE WX CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
PATTERN IS XPCTED TO PERSIST WELL INTO FRI WITH VFR CONDITIONS
XPCTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
09
000
FXUS64 KBMX 030002
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
702 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA...ITS NOT UNBEARABLE TO BE OUTSIDE. THE BOUNDARY
THAT WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE YESTERDAY HAS DIPPED
DOWN TOWARDS THE GULF COAST AND WE ARE SEEING SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG IT...BUT THESE SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR
AREA...KEEPING THE GROUND DRY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE FILTERS IN MORE DRY AIR BEGINNING TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW AS THE DRY AIR WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB.
MODELS HAVE RETURN FLOW BEGINNING ON SATURDAY...BUT THIS WHERE
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO WANE IN THE FORECAST. HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING ACROSS THE SOUTH...LEAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF...BUT EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS
EITHER WAY. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN THING FIREWORKS ENTHUSIASTS WILL
HAVE TO FIGHT WITH SATURDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AS SAID ABOVE...CONFIDENCE WANES OUTSIDE OF 72 HOURS. AT THIS POINT
GFS/NAM HAVE A MIRACULOUS AMOUNT OF PWS BY MIDDAY ON SUNDAY...OVER 2
INCHES OR AN INCREASE OF OVER ONE INCH IN AN 18 HOUR PERIOD. THIS
IS NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE INCREASED MOISTURE
AND HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS. SO WILL FORECAST
CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AND DECREASING
CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT FORMS OUT OVER
THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND TREKS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DROPPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE.
IN REGARDS TO HOW STRONG THESE STORMS WILL BE...THE HIGHER PWS
END UP BEING THE MORE LIKELY WE ARE TO HAVE MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
EVENT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN. BUT IF WE
ONLY SEE PWS AROUND 1.5-1.7...WHICH MEANS A LITTLE MORE DRY AIR
FOR STORMS TO FEED OFF OF...WE COULD SEE THE STRENGTH OF THESE
STORMS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW...GOING TO KEEP THE STRONG WORDING IN THE HWO
TO REFLECT THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT.
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...RETURNING DRIER AIR AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT WE`RE
GOING TO NEED TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT THIS FRONT DOES AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK BEFORE WE DRY THINGS OUT. PERSISTENCE USUALLY WINS
OUT...SO STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS.
27
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
NO AVIATION PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
10/ARM
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
27/10
000
FXUS64 KHUN 022323 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
620 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAFS/AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE WX CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
PATTERN IS XPCTED TO PERSIST WELL INTO FRI WITH VFR CONDITIONS
XPCTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AN ANALYSIS OF THE
CUMULUS FIELD ON SATELLITE...AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL PLOTS...INDICATE
THE AREA IS TRANSITIONING INTO NW FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS NW
FLOW...ON THE EAST SIDE OF A PERSISTENT AND DOMINATE UPPER HIGH OVER
TEXAS...WILL PUSH DISTURBANCES AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES IS THE
BIGGEST CHALLENGE TO THIS FORECAST.
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER TEXAS
FINALLY BREAKING DOWN AND ELONGATING WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR AREA TURNS MORE WNW
BY LATE SATURDAY. THIS CHANGE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL COINCIDE WITH
A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND MODEL GUIDANCE POINT TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS ON SUNDAY MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND WILL
ADJUST POPS UPWARD. WHILE THE MODELS ALSO PUSH THE FRONT WELL
THROUGH THE AREA...THE MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL LIKELY MEAN THAT
FROPA WILL DEPEND ON THE MCS DRIVING THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...AN
EYE WILL NEED TO BE KEPT ON THE WHERE THE THE FRONT DECIDES TO
STALL. THIS FORECAST WILL AGREE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE OF THE
FROPA THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IT
STALL A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN ADVERTISED.
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE A DRYING TREND WITH TEMPS
FAIRLY PLEASANT BEHIND THE FRONT. IN FACT...WE MAY EVEN SEE
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE
AREA BY THURSDAY. WITH THIS...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
A SLOW WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...09
DISCUSSION...JMC.34.SYN
000
FXUS64 KMOB 022118
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
418 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...WEAK SFC TROUGH NOTED
OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA HAS SPARKED
SOME SEVERE STORMS OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF NICKEL SIZE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON...AND A WIND GUST
TO 70 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT DESTIN...FLIPPING AIRCRAFT AT THE
AIRPORT THERE. NOW HAVE A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST MS AS
WELL...HAIL HAS RECENTLY BEEN REPORTED WITH THOSE DEVELOPING STORMS
AS WELL. THESE STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING...LIKELY
BEING MORE NUMEROUS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THAN THE AREAS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE THAT HAVE BEEN WORKED OVER THIS AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE STABLE WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN
EXPECTED...BUT WILL THEN HAVE A RETURN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL BE VERY HOT AGAIN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S MOST LOCATIONS...
BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS INTO LONG TERM PERIOD. 12/DS
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...NO CHANGES MADE WITH THIS
AFTERNOONS FCST PACKAGE. 12/DS
&&
.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...WEAK FRONT MOVING SOUTH OVER MS/AL/GA
ATTM WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR TSRA LATER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA. FEEL
RAIN CHANCE WILL BE SQUASHED BY DRIER SLUG OVER THE MS/AL STATE LINE
BY MID/LATE EVENING. 16/SM
&&
.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL CREATE A GENERAL
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW OVER THE AL/NW FL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK
WILL STRENGTHEN THE WINDS SOMEWHAT...WITH MODERATE WINDS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER THE MARINE AREA...
SOME CONTAINING WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FRIDAY BUT SCATTTERED STORMS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 16/SM
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE A WEAK TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH...PRIMARILY
OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAKENING AND POSSIBLY DRIFT JUST OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN EACH OF THOSE DAYS. ANY RAINFALL
THAT DOES OCCUR INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS OVER FLORIDA THROUGH LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. 12/DS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 73 98 74 97 / 20 05 05 05
PENSACOLA 76 97 76 94 / 20 05 05 05
DESTIN 78 94 77 93 / 20 10 05 05
EVERGREEN 67 96 65 97 / 10 05 05 05
WAYNESBORO 67 98 68 98 / 10 05 05 05
CAMDEN 65 98 67 98 / 10 05 05 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 022007
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
307 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AN ANALYSIS OF THE CUMULUS FIELD
ON SATELLITE...AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL PLOTS...INDICATE THE AREA IS
TRANSITIONING INTO NW FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS NW FLOW...ON THE
EAST SIDE OF A PERSISTENT AND DOMINATE UPPER HIGH OVER TEXAS...
WILL PUSH DISTURBANCES AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES IS THE BIGGEST
CHALLENGE TO THIS FORECAST.
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER TEXAS
FINALLY BREAKING DOWN AND ELONGATING WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR AREA TURNS MORE WNW
BY LATE SATURDAY. THIS CHANGE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL COINCIDE WITH
A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND MODEL GUIDANCE POINT TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS ON SUNDAY MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...AND WILL
ADJUST POPS UPWARD. WHILE THE MODELS ALSO PUSH THE FRONT WELL
THROUGH THE AREA...THE MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL LIKELY MEAN THAT
FROPA WILL DEPEND ON THE MCS DRIVING THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...AN
EYE WILL NEED TO BE KEPT ON THE WHERE THE THE FRONT DECIDES TO
STALL. THIS FORECAST WILL AGREE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE OF THE
FROPA THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IT
STALL A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN ADVERTISED.
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE A DRYING TREND WITH TEMPS FAIRLY
PLEASANT BEHIND THE FRONT. IN FACT...WE MAY EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE
AREA BY THURSDAY. WITH THIS...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
A SLOW WARMING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 65 91 67 92 71 / 10 10 10 30 30
SHOALS 63 92 65 93 71 / 10 10 10 30 40
CULLMAN 63 89 65 91 72 / 10 10 10 20 30
FAYETTEVILLE 63 88 66 89 70 / 10 10 10 30 40
ALBERTVILLE 65 89 67 91 73 / 10 10 10 20 30
FORT PAYNE 61 91 64 91 72 / 10 10 10 20 30
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
JMC.34.SYN
CA.12.AVI
000
FXUS64 KBMX 021959
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
259 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA...ITS NOT UNBEARABLE TO BE OUTSIDE. THE BOUNDARY
THAT WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE YESTERDAY HAS DIPPED
DOWN TOWARDS THE GULF COAST AND WE ARE SEEING SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG IT...BUT THESE SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OUR
AREA...KEEPING THE GROUND DRY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE FILTERS IN MORE DRY AIR BEGINNING TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW AS THE DRY AIR WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB.
MODELS HAVE RETURN FLOW BEGINNING ON SATURDAY...BUT THIS WHERE
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO WANE IN THE FORECAST. HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE
SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING ACROSS THE SOUTH...LEAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF...BUT EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS
EITHER WAY. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN THING FIREWORKS ENTHUSIASTS WILL
HAVE TO FIGHT WITH SATURDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AS SAID ABOVE...CONFIDENCE WANES OUTSIDE OF 72 HOURS. AT THIS POINT
GFS/NAM HAVE A MIRACULOUS AMOUNT OF PWS BY MIDDAY ON SUNDAY...OVER 2
INCHES OR AN INCREASE OF OVER ONE INCH IN AN 18 HOUR PERIOD. THIS
IS NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE INCREASED MOISTURE
AND HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS. SO WILL FORECAST
CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AND DECREASING
CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT FORMS OUT OVER
THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND TREKS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DROPPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE.
IN REGARDS TO HOW STRONG THESE STORMS WILL BE...THE HIGHER PWS
END UP BEING THE MORE LIKELY WE ARE TO HAVE MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
EVENT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN. BUT IF WE
ONLY SEE PWS AROUND 1.5-1.7...WHICH MEANS A LITTLE MORE DRY AIR
FOR STORMS TO FEED OFF OF...WE COULD SEE THE STRENGTH OF THESE
STORMS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW...GOING TO KEEP THE STRONG WORDING IN THE HWO
TO REFLECT THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT.
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...RETURNING DRIER AIR AND WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT WE`RE
GOING TO NEED TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT THIS FRONT DOES AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK BEFORE WE DRY THINGS OUT. PERSISTENCE USUALLY WINS
OUT...SO STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECASTS.
27
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
OVERALL VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. CAN NOT RULE OUT
A PASSING SH/TS AT TOI THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES ARE
LOW...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD IN
TEMP MVFR AT TOI BY 9Z...AS MORE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE HERE.
16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 62 93 66 92 68 / 10 10 10 20 30
ANNISTON 65 93 63 92 70 / 10 10 10 20 30
BIRMINGHAM 66 93 65 93 71 / 10 10 10 20 20
TUSCALOOSA 66 97 67 97 73 / 10 10 10 20 20
CALERA 67 94 65 94 71 / 10 10 10 20 20
AUBURN 71 94 64 93 70 / 10 10 10 20 20
MONTGOMERY 71 97 67 96 72 / 10 10 10 10 20
TROY 71 96 66 96 71 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
27/16
| 
