[top]
000
FXUS64 KLZK 060213
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
913 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS TO ADJUST POPS AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SLOWLY SOUTH. HAVE POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY LINGERING A BIT LONGER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH A BIT SLOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS IS DUE TO
THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. STILL
EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF THE STATE INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BEFORE STALLING. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT BEST
CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF THE STATE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/
AVIATION...
FNTL BNDRY STILL SITUATED ACRS CNTRL AR...WITH SCTD CONVECTION
NOTED ALONG IT. EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFT SUNSET
THIS EVENING. WL SEE MVFR/IFR CONDS WHERE STORMS AFFECT FCST SITES
EARLY IN THE PD. FNT IS FCST TO CONT TO WORKING SLOLY SWD OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS WL PERSIST BEHIND THE FNT...WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. OCNL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WL BE NOTED LATE
TNGT INTO MON MRNG...WITH IMPROVING CONDS BY MIDDAY. /44/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/
SHORT TERM....TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MODELS ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WITH SOME
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE SMALLER DETAILS WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES FRONTAL BOUNDARY ROUGHLY ALONG A
WEST MEMPHIS TO SEARCY TO MENA LINE ALTHOUGH EXACT LOCATION REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION AS NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ABOUND.
STRONGEST OF THESE BOUNDARIES REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE
STEADIEST PRECIPITATION HAS PREVAILED. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT IN THE MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR MASS.
NEW MODEL RUNS MOVE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY THROUGH SLOWER
VERSUS THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND FEATURE NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
STATE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN
LOUISIANA BRIEFLY MONDAY BEFORE MOVING FURTHER SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY
WASHING OUT. AS SUCH...WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH FOR THE FIRST HALF ON MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THIS EVENING/EARLY MONDAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM SAGGING SOUTH. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE AS
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LINGER BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
PERIOD INITIALIZES WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS/NORTHERN
ROCKIES ANCHORED BY TROUGHS OVER ONTARIO PROVENCE AND OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEEPEN WITH
TIME AS WESTERN RIDGE SHARPENS UP. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE TH
ROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW BUT ONLY OCCASIONAL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AND WILL LEAVE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DRY.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...MONDAY WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH WARMING TREND COMMENCING AFTER. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK
GOOD AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TO START
THE LONG TERM...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE STATE...SO
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S...AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 66 85 65 91 / 20 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 72 87 67 93 / 40 20 10 10
HARRISON AR 64 82 64 89 / 20 10 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 70 85 66 92 / 30 20 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 69 86 66 92 / 30 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 72 86 67 92 / 40 20 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 68 85 66 92 / 30 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 65 84 64 89 / 20 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 66 85 65 91 / 30 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 71 86 67 92 / 40 20 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 68 84 65 91 / 20 10 10 10
SEARCY AR 68 85 66 91 / 30 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 69 86 67 92 / 40 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
62
000
FXUS64 KLZK 052359
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
659 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.AVIATION...
FNTL BNDRY STILL SITUATED ACRS CNTRL AR...WITH SCTD CONVECTION
NOTED ALONG IT. EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFT SUNSET
THIS EVENING. WL SEE MVFR/IFR CONDS WHERE STORMS AFFECT FCST SITES
EARLY IN THE PD. FNT IS FCST TO CONT TO WORKING SLOLY SWD OVERNIGHT
INTO MON. ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS WL PERSIST BEHIND THE FNT...WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. OCNL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WL BE NOTED LATE
TNGT INTO MON MRNG...WITH IMPROVING CONDS BY MIDDAY. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/
SHORT TERM....TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MODELS ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WITH SOME
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE SMALLER DETAILS WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES FRONTAL BOUNDARY ROUGHLY ALONG A
WEST MEMPHIS TO SEARCY TO MENA LINE ALTHOUGH EXACT LOCATION REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION AS NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ABOUND.
STRONGEST OF THESE BOUNDARIES REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE
STEADIEST PRECIPITATION HAS PREVAILED. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT IN THE MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR MASS.
NEW MODEL RUNS MOVE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY THROUGH SLOWER
VERSUS THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND FEATURE NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
STATE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN
LOUISIANA BRIEFLY MONDAY BEFORE MOVING FURTHER SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY
WASHING OUT. AS SUCH...WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH FOR THE FIRST HALF ON MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THIS EVENING/EARLY MONDAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM SAGGING SOUTH. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE AS
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LINGER BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
PERIOD INITIALIZES WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS/NORTHERN
ROCKIES ANCHORED BY TROUGHS OVER ONTARIO PROVENCE AND OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEEPEN WITH
TIME AS WESTERN RIDGE SHARPENS UP. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE TH
ROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW BUT ONLY OCCASIONAL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AND WILL LEAVE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DRY.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...MONDAY WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH WARMING TREND COMMENCING AFTER. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK
GOOD AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TO START
THE LONG TERM...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE STATE...SO
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S...AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLZK 051906
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
205 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.SHORT TERM....TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MODELS ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WITH SOME
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE SMALLER DETAILS WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES FRONTAL BOUNDARY ROUGHLY ALONG A
WEST MEMPHIS TO SEARCY TO MENA LINE ALTHOUGH EXACT LOCATION REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION AS NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ABOUND.
STRONGEST OF THESE BOUNDARIES REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE
STEADIEST PRECIPITATION HAS PREVAILED. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT IN THE MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR MASS.
NEW MODEL RUNS MOVE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY THROUGH SLOWER
VERSUS THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND FEATURE NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
STATE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN
LOUISIANA BRIEFLY MONDAY BEFORE MOVING FURTHER SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY
WASHING OUT. AS SUCH...WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH FOR THE FIRST HALF ON MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THIS EVENING/EARLY MONDAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM SAGGING SOUTH. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE AS
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LINGER BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
PERIOD INITIALIZES WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS/NORTHERN
ROCKIES ANCHORED BY TROUGHS OVER ONTARIO PROVENCE AND OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEEPEN WITH
TIME AS WESTERN RIDGE SHARPENS UP. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE TH
ROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW BUT ONLY OCCASIONAL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AND WILL LEAVE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DRY.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...MONDAY WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH WARMING TREND COMMENCING AFTER. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK
GOOD AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
&&
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TO START
THE LONG TERM...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE STATE...SO
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S...AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 65 86 65 91 / 20 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 69 90 67 93 / 50 20 10 10
HARRISON AR 63 85 64 89 / 10 10 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 66 88 66 92 / 40 10 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 66 88 66 92 / 40 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 69 89 67 92 / 50 20 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 66 88 66 92 / 30 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 63 85 64 89 / 10 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 65 87 65 91 / 30 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 68 89 67 92 / 40 10 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 64 87 65 91 / 20 10 10 10
SEARCY AR 66 87 66 91 / 30 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 67 88 67 92 / 40 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...60
000
FXUS64 KLZK 051750
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1250 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE STATE. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE STATE...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWERED IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/
UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES FRONTAL BOUNDARY ROUGHLY FROM
MARKED TREE TO WALDRON AND MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ON THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTH. MODELS HAVE COME IN SLOWER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE FEATURE
NOT CLEARING THE AREA UNTIL SOMETIME AFTER DARK.
VISIBLE SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST AND
WITH THE AIR MASS REMAINING QUITE JUICY TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
..WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THESE ARE EVIDENT ON LOCAL
RADARS.
BEST CHANCES OF SEEING HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH AND WILL REWORK POPS/QPF IN
THIS DIRECTION.
OTHER CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO WINDS TO REFLECT SLOWER MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT AND TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT TREND. UPDATES
OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/
AVIATION...
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS THE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
STATE...WITH TEMP LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER
STORMS.
AS FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES...THEY WILL EXPERIENCE CEILINGS
BETWEEN 500 AND 1200FT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...WITH BR LIKELY ACROSS
KHRO AND KBPK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/
DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS TODAY ARE CONVECTION OVER AR...ANY ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING...THEN CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH TODAY INTO
MONDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH AND OUT OF THE STATE.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY CENTRAL
AREAS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED STRONG STORMS...WITH WIND...SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN. SEVERE THREAT HAS BEEN LOW...AND EXPECT IT TO
REMAIN THIS LEVEL OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED FLOODING SOME CONCERN WITH
TRAINING OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AREAS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HELPING DEVELOP CONVECTION...AND SHORT
RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS GRADUALLY DRIFTING SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WAS OVER EASTERN OK...TO NEAR FAR NW AR AND
SOUTHWEST MO. DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE QUITE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER AR. 00Z SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER
VALUE OF 2.16 INCHES...LI OF -6...CAPE 3200 J/KG...WITH A SW TO W
WIND FLOW SURFACE TO ALOFT. ONLY A 20 KT LOW LEVEL JET NOTED.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL START TODAY WITH LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AR ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE
AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THEN GRADUALLY MOVING THIS AREA SOUTH.
LOWER CHANCES OVER NORTH AR. ADDED POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN. WILL NOT
ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH...DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT DID UP QPF VALUES A BIT. MODEL TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT CONSISTENT...AND WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO
CENTRAL TODAY...THEN CENTRAL TO SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY
MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE KEPT ON MONDAY DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY OF
BOUNDARY...BUT SHOULD CLEAR AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO AR.
DRY LATER MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS. DRY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH STALLED
BOUNDARY LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF ARKANSAS AND UPPER RIDGE BUILT BACK
OVER THE REGION. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL APPROACH THE AR/MO BORDER AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...RIDGE SHOULD SHIELD ANY PRECIP FROM ENTERING THE FA. AS
FAR AS TEMPS GO...DIDNT SEE ANY REASON TO SWAY MUCH FROM
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 65 87 64 91 / 20 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 69 90 67 93 / 40 20 10 10
HARRISON AR 63 83 62 89 / 10 10 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 66 89 65 92 / 30 10 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 66 89 65 92 / 30 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 69 90 67 93 / 50 20 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 66 88 65 92 / 20 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 63 84 63 89 / 20 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 65 87 65 91 / 30 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 68 89 66 92 / 40 20 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 64 87 64 91 / 20 10 10 10
SEARCY AR 66 88 65 91 / 30 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 67 89 66 92 / 40 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...60
000
FXUS64 KLZK 051448
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
948 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES FRONTAL BOUNDARY ROUGHLY FROM
MARKED TREE TO WALDRON AND MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ON THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTH. MODELS HAVE COME IN SLOWER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE FEATURE
NOT CLEARING THE AREA UNTIL SOMETIME AFTER DARK.
VISIBLE SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST AND
WITH THE AIR MASS REMAINING QUITE JUICY TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THESE ARE EVIDENT ON LOCAL
RADARS.
BEST CHANCES OF SEEING HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH AND WILL REWORK POPS/QPF IN
THIS DIRECTION.
OTHER CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO WINDS TO REFLECT SLOWER MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT AND TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT TREND. UPDATES
OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/
AVIATION...
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS THE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
STATE...WITH TEMP LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER
STORMS.
AS FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES...THEY WILL EXPERIENCE CEILINGS
BETWEEN 500 AND 1200FT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...WITH BR LIKELY ACROSS
KHRO AND KBPK.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/
DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS TODAY ARE CONVECTION OVER AR...ANY ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING...THEN CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH TODAY INTO
MONDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH AND OUT OF THE STATE.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY CENTRAL
AREAS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED STRONG STORMS...WITH WIND...SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN. SEVERE THREAT HAS BEEN LOW...AND EXPECT IT TO
REMAIN THIS LEVEL OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED FLOODING SOME CONCERN WITH
TRAINING OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AREAS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HELPING DEVELOP CONVECTION...AND SHORT
RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS GRADUALLY DRIFTING SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WAS OVER EASTERN OK...TO NEAR FAR NW AR AND
SOUTHWEST MO. DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE QUITE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER AR. 00Z SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER
VALUE OF 2.16 INCHES...LI OF -6...CAPE 3200 J/KG...WITH A SW TO W
WIND FLOW SURFACE TO ALOFT. ONLY A 20 KT LOW LEVEL JET NOTED.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL START TODAY WITH LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AR ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE
AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THEN GRADUALLY MOVING THIS AREA SOUTH.
LOWER CHANCES OVER NORTH AR. ADDED POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN. WILL NOT
ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH...DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT DID UP QPF VALUES A BIT. MODEL TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT CONSISTENT...AND WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO
CENTRAL TODAY...THEN CENTRAL TO SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY
MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE KEPT ON MONDAY DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY OF
BOUNDARY...BUT SHOULD CLEAR AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO AR.
DRY LATER MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS. DRY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH STALLED
BOUNDARY LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF ARKANSAS AND UPPER RIDGE BUILT BACK
OVER THE REGION. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL APPROACH THE AR/MO BORDER AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...RIDGE SHOULD SHIELD ANY PRECIP FROM ENTERING THE FA. AS
FAR AS TEMPS GO...DIDNT SEE ANY REASON TO SWAY MUCH FROM
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 82 65 87 64 / 40 20 10 10
CAMDEN AR 89 69 90 67 / 50 40 20 10
HARRISON AR 80 63 83 62 / 20 10 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 85 66 89 65 / 50 30 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 84 66 89 65 / 50 30 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 88 69 90 67 / 50 50 20 10
MOUNT IDA AR 85 66 88 65 / 50 20 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 80 63 84 63 / 30 20 10 10
NEWPORT AR 83 65 87 65 / 40 30 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 86 68 89 66 / 50 40 20 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 82 64 87 64 / 40 20 10 10
SEARCY AR 83 66 88 65 / 40 30 10 10
STUTTGART AR 85 67 89 66 / 50 40 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...60
000
FXUS64 KLZK 051133
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
633 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS THE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
STATE...WITH TEMP LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER
STORMS.
AS FOR THE NORTHERN TAF SITES...THEY WILL EXPERIENCE CEILINGS
BETWEEN 500 AND 1200FT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAGS BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...WITH BR LIKELY ACROSS
KHRO AND KBPK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/
DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS TODAY ARE CONVECTION OVER AR...ANY ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING...THEN CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH TODAY INTO
MONDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH AND OUT OF THE STATE.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY CENTRAL
AREAS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED STRONG STORMS...WITH WIND...SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN. SEVERE THREAT HAS BEEN LOW...AND EXPECT IT TO
REMAIN THIS LEVEL OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED FLOODING SOME CONCERN WITH
TRAINING OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AREAS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HELPING DEVELOP CONVECTION...AND SHORT
RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS GRADUALLY DRIFTING SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WAS OVER EASTERN OK...TO NEAR FAR NW AR AND
SOUTHWEST MO. DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE QUITE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER AR. 00Z SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER
VALUE OF 2.16 INCHES...LI OF -6...CAPE 3200 J/KG...WITH A SW TO W
WIND FLOW SURFACE TO ALOFT. ONLY A 20 KT LOW LEVEL JET NOTED.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL START TODAY WITH LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AR ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE
AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THEN GRADUALLY MOVING THIS AREA SOUTH.
LOWER CHANCES OVER NORTH AR. ADDED POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN. WILL NOT
ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH...DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT DID UP QPF VALUES A BIT. MODEL TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT CONSISTENT...AND WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO
CENTRAL TODAY...THEN CENTRAL TO SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY
MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE KEPT ON MONDAY DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY OF
BOUNDARY...BUT SHOULD CLEAR AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO AR.
DRY LATER MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS. DRY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH STALLED
BOUNDARY LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF ARKANSAS AND UPPER RIDGE BUILT BACK
OVER THE REGION. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL APPROACH THE AR/MO BORDER AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...RIDGE SHOULD SHIELD ANY PRECIP FROM ENTERING THE FA. AS
FAR AS TEMPS GO...DIDNT SEE ANY REASON TO SWAY MUCH FROM
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 82 65 87 64 / 30 20 10 10
CAMDEN AR 88 69 90 67 / 70 40 20 10
HARRISON AR 79 63 83 62 / 20 10 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 86 66 89 65 / 60 30 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 85 66 89 65 / 60 30 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 87 69 90 67 / 70 50 20 10
MOUNT IDA AR 85 66 88 65 / 60 20 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 79 63 84 63 / 20 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 83 65 87 65 / 40 20 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 86 68 89 66 / 70 40 20 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 83 64 87 64 / 40 20 10 10
SEARCY AR 84 66 88 65 / 50 20 10 10
STUTTGART AR 85 67 89 66 / 60 30 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...61
000
FXUS64 KLZK 050804
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
304 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CONCERNS TODAY ARE CONVECTION OVER AR...ANY ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING...THEN CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH TODAY INTO
MONDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH AND OUT OF THE STATE.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY CENTRAL
AREAS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED STRONG STORMS...WITH WIND...SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN. SEVERE THREAT HAS BEEN LOW...AND EXPECT IT TO
REMAIN THIS LEVEL OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED FLOODING SOME CONCERN WITH
TRAINING OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AREAS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HELPING DEVELOP CONVECTION...AND SHORT
RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS GRADUALLY DRIFTING SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WAS OVER EASTERN OK...TO NEAR FAR NW AR AND
SOUTHWEST MO. DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE QUITE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER AR. 00Z SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER
VALUE OF 2.16 INCHES...LI OF -6...CAPE 3200 J/KG...WITH A SW TO W
WIND FLOW SURFACE TO ALOFT. ONLY A 20 KT LOW LEVEL JET NOTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL START TODAY WITH LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AR ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE
AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THEN GRADUALLY MOVING THIS AREA SOUTH.
LOWER CHANCES OVER NORTH AR. ADDED POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN. WILL NOT
ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH...DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE OF HEAVY
RAIN...BUT DID UP QPF VALUES A BIT. MODEL TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT CONSISTENT...AND WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO
CENTRAL TODAY...THEN CENTRAL TO SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY
MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE KEPT ON MONDAY DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY OF
BOUNDARY...BUT SHOULD CLEAR AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO AR.
DRY LATER MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS. DRY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH STALLED
BOUNDARY LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF ARKANSAS AND UPPER RIDGE BUILT BACK
OVER THE REGION. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL APPROACH THE AR/MO BORDER AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...RIDGE SHOULD SHIELD ANY PRECIP FROM ENTERING THE FA. AS
FAR AS TEMPS GO...DIDNT SEE ANY REASON TO SWAY MUCH FROM
GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 82 65 88 65 / 40 20 10 10
CAMDEN AR 88 69 90 69 / 70 30 20 10
HARRISON AR 79 63 84 63 / 30 10 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 86 66 90 67 / 60 30 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 85 66 90 67 / 60 30 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 87 69 90 69 / 70 30 20 10
MOUNT IDA AR 85 66 89 66 / 60 20 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 79 63 85 64 / 30 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 83 65 88 66 / 50 20 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 86 68 90 68 / 70 30 20 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 83 64 88 65 / 40 20 10 10
SEARCY AR 84 66 89 67 / 50 20 10 10
STUTTGART AR 85 67 90 68 / 60 30 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...60
000
FXUS64 KLZK 050541
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1241 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT KHOT AND KLIT FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS THE PRE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS AS
THE STORMS BOW OUT AND MOVE ACROSS.
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CWA...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BRING REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BY 12Z...LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
CYCLE. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR...WITH PERIODS OF IFR
IN STRONGER STORMS. AND WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BR WILL
BE LIKELY ACROSS KHRO AND KPBF REDUCING VISIBILITY TO NEAR 4SM
THROUGH THE MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE ZONES TO REMOVE SVR WATCH WORDING AND WITH SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
AVIATION...
ONGOING CONVECTION OVR CNTRL AR WL IMPACT KHOT AND KLIT FOR SEVERAL
HRS THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS OVR OK COULD AFFECT PARTS OF
THE FA LATER TNGT. FNTL BNDRY WAS STILL SITUATED NW OF AR THIS
EVENING. BNDRY EXPECTED TO ENTER NRN AR AFT 06Z...WITH A CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR CAT OVR NRN AR LATE TNGT
AND EARLY SUN MRNG AS INCRSG LOW LVL RH WORKS SWD. SCTD SHRA/TSRA
WL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SUN...MAINLY ACRS CNTRL AND SRN AR AS FNTL
BNDRY WORKS FURTHER SWD. /44/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
SHORT TERM....TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BIGGEST DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS VERSUS THIS TIME YESTERDAY IS THE
TIMING OF THE EVENTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE INCREASED THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE IT CLEARING THE
AREA BY LATE SUNDAY. WITH NO REAL DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ALL ADVERTISING A CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AS
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST MOVES OUT AND UPPER RIDGE
GETS REESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST. PATTERN SHIFT WILL PLACE AREA IN
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT NOW LOCATED OVER
EASTERN ARKANSAS WITH RATHER MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT CUTTING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF A DECAYING MCS WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
ENTERING NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND SUNSET. FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY EARLY MORNING AND OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH. HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS...DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.25 INCHES POOLING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY.
WILL END PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH BEGINS
TO SETTLE IN AND WILL LEAVE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DRY. WILL
ACTUALLY START THE PERIOD OFF WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE THEM AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. MAV/MEX NUMBERS
LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS TO START THE
LONG TERM...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
THE STATE...KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF COAST. KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR ARKANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 65 88 65 91 / 20 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 68 90 69 93 / 40 20 10 10
HARRISON AR 63 86 63 90 / 10 10 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 66 90 67 92 / 30 10 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 66 90 67 92 / 30 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 68 90 69 93 / 40 20 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 66 89 66 92 / 30 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 63 87 64 90 / 20 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 65 88 66 91 / 20 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 67 90 68 92 / 40 20 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 64 88 65 91 / 20 10 10 10
SEARCY AR 66 89 67 91 / 30 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 67 90 68 92 / 40 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...61
000
FXUS64 KLZK 050203
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
903 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE ZONES TO REMOVE SVR WATCH WORDING AND WITH SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
AVIATION...
ONGOING CONVECTION OVR CNTRL AR WL IMPACT KHOT AND KLIT FOR SEVERAL
HRS THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS OVR OK COULD AFFECT PARTS OF
THE FA LATER TNGT. FNTL BNDRY WAS STILL SITUATED NW OF AR THIS
EVENING. BNDRY EXPECTED TO ENTER NRN AR AFT 06Z...WITH A CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR CAT OVR NRN AR LATE TNGT
AND EARLY SUN MRNG AS INCRSG LOW LVL RH WORKS SWD. SCTD SHRA/TSRA
WL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SUN...MAINLY ACRS CNTRL AND SRN AR AS FNTL
BNDRY WORKS FURTHER SWD. /44/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
SHORT TERM....TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BIGGEST DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS VERSUS THIS TIME YESTERDAY IS THE
TIMING OF THE EVENTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE INCREASED THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE IT CLEARING THE
AREA BY LATE SUNDAY. WITH NO REAL DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ALL ADVERTISING A CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AS
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST MOVES OUT AND UPPER RIDGE
GETS REESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST. PATTERN SHIFT WILL PLACE AREA IN
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT NOW LOCATED OVER
EASTERN ARKANSAS WITH RATHER MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT CUTTING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF A DECAYING MCS WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
ENTERING NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND SUNSET. FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY EARLY MORNING AND OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH. HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS...DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.25 INCHES POOLING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY.
WILL END PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH BEGINS
TO SETTLE IN AND WILL LEAVE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DRY. WILL
ACTUALLY START THE PERIOD OFF WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE THEM AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. MAV/MEX NUMBERS
LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS TO START THE
LONG TERM...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
THE STATE...KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF COAST. KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR ARKANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 70 83 65 88 / 70 40 20 10
CAMDEN AR 75 89 68 90 / 60 60 40 20
HARRISON AR 68 82 63 86 / 70 30 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 74 87 66 90 / 60 50 30 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 73 86 66 90 / 60 50 30 10
MONTICELLO AR 75 88 68 90 / 60 60 40 20
MOUNT IDA AR 73 86 66 89 / 60 50 30 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 68 82 63 87 / 70 40 20 10
NEWPORT AR 71 84 65 88 / 70 50 20 10
PINE BLUFF AR 74 87 67 90 / 60 60 40 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 71 84 64 88 / 70 40 20 10
SEARCY AR 72 85 66 89 / 70 50 30 10
STUTTGART AR 73 86 67 90 / 60 60 40 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
62
000
FXUS64 KLZK 042357
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
657 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.AVIATION...
ONGOING CONVECTION OVR CNTRL AR WL IMPACT KHOT AND KLIT FOR SEVERAL
HRS THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS OVR OK COULD AFFECT PARTS OF
THE FA LATER TNGT. FNTL BNDRY WAS STILL SITUATED NW OF AR THIS
EVENING. BNDRY EXPECTED TO ENTER NRN AR AFT 06Z...WITH A CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR CAT OVR NRN AR LATE TNGT
AND EARLY SUN MRNG AS INCRSG LOW LVL RH WORKS SWD. SCTD SHRA/TSRA
WL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SUN...MAINLY ACRS CNTRL AND SRN AR AS FNTL
BNDRY WORKS FURTHER SWD. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
SHORT TERM....TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BIGGEST DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS VERSUS THIS TIME YESTERDAY IS THE
TIMING OF THE EVENTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE INCREASED THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE IT CLEARING THE
AREA BY LATE SUNDAY. WITH NO REAL DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ALL ADVERTISING A CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AS
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST MOVES OUT AND UPPER RIDGE
GETS REESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST. PATTERN SHIFT WILL PLACE AREA IN
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT NOW LOCATED OVER
EASTERN ARKANSAS WITH RATHER MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT CUTTING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF A DECAYING MCS WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
ENTERING NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND SUNSET. FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY EARLY MORNING AND OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH. HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS...DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.25 INCHES POOLING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY.
WILL END PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH BEGINS
TO SETTLE IN AND WILL LEAVE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DRY. WILL
ACTUALLY START THE PERIOD OFF WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE THEM AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. MAV/MEX NUMBERS
LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS TO START THE
LONG TERM...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
THE STATE...KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF COAST. KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR ARKANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLZK 041911
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
225 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
SHORT TERM....TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BIGGEST DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS VERSUS THIS TIME YESTERDAY IS THE
TIMING OF THE EVENTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS
HAVE INCREASED THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE IT CLEARING THE
AREA BY LATE SUNDAY. WITH NO REAL DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ALL ADVERTISING A CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AS
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST MOVES OUT AND UPPER RIDGE
GETS REESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST. PATTERN SHIFT WILL PLACE AREA IN
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT NOW LOCATED OVER
EASTERN ARKANSAS WITH RATHER MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT CUTTING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF A DECAYING MCS WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
ENTERING NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AROUND SUNSET. FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY EARLY MORNING AND OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH. HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS...DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.25 INCHES POOLING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY.
WILL END PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH BEGINS
TO SETTLE IN AND WILL LEAVE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DRY. WILL
ACTUALLY START THE PERIOD OFF WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE THEM AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. MAV/MEX NUMBERS
LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS TO START THE LONG
TERM...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
STATE...KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF COAST. KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR ARKANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 69 83 65 88 / 70 40 20 10
CAMDEN AR 74 89 68 90 / 60 60 40 20
HARRISON AR 66 82 63 86 / 70 30 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 72 87 66 90 / 60 50 30 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 71 86 66 90 / 60 50 30 10
MONTICELLO AR 74 88 68 90 / 60 60 40 20
MOUNT IDA AR 72 86 66 89 / 60 50 30 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 67 82 63 87 / 70 40 10 10
NEWPORT AR 70 84 65 88 / 70 50 20 10
PINE BLUFF AR 73 87 67 90 / 60 60 40 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 69 84 64 88 / 70 40 20 10
SEARCY AR 70 85 66 89 / 70 50 20 10
STUTTGART AR 72 86 67 90 / 60 60 30 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...60
000
FXUS64 KLZK 041738
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1238 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.AVIATION...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL EFFECT THE NORTHERN TAFS SITES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES AND CEILING ARE EXPECTED DIMINISH IN
AREAS OF STRONGER PRECIPITATION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
UPDATE...
UPDATE REQUIRED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW MCS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN
KANSAS MOVING GENERALLY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. WHILE A SLOW
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY FIRE UP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND AIDED BY AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WILL ALSO LOWER
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND ADJUST CLOUD COVER.
UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF RAIN LATER TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST INTO AR...AND WHERE
IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. ANY THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
ANY HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
CURRENT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN KS TO MO MOVING DUE EAST AND
SHOULD ONLY AFFECT AR WITH SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS SPREADING SOUTH.
PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY AFFECT NORTH AR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO QUASI STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OK AND
AR STATE LINE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS AR DURING THE DAY...AND MAY
ALSO HELP TOUCH OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION. SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS
NOW IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER AR. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A
PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES...LI -7...CAPE 2600 J/KG...WITH
A LIGHT VEERING FLOW...WITH NW STORM MOTION FLOW.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED CONVECTION TODAY...AND MAINLY NORTHERN
AREAS WITH SOME ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH WARM FRONT TO DRIFT ACROSS AR. HAVE UPPED POP JUST A BIT
OVER NORTHERN AR DUE TO THESE FACTORS. TEMPS OVER SOUTH AR WHERE
MAX HEATING WILL OCCUR EXPECTED TO BE IN UPPER 90S...WITH ISOLATED
HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100 TO 105. DUE TO LOW AREA COVERAGE AND
SOME UNCERTAINTY...HEAT ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED.
THEN GREATER CHANCES OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS THE
BOUNDARY SAGS INTO AR...AND UPPER ENERGY MOVES ACROSS AR. POPS ARE
UP ACCORDINGLY. AT THIS TIME...ONLY ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE...WITH HAIL AND WIND MAIN THREATS...DUE TO TIMING
OF FRONTAL MOVEMENT...AND UPPER ENERGY SHEARING OUT. ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...DUE TO ELEVATED PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND
1.5 INCHES. GFS A BIT FASTER THAN NAM AND EURO...TAKING FRONT TO
SOUTH AR BY NOON SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS PRECIP OVER AR A
BIT LONGER...MATCHING SLOWER MODELS...AND THIS STILL LOOKS BEST
SOLUTION. HELD ON TO POPS MONDAY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH AR DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL POSITION. TEMPS WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES...WITH SOME A BIT COOLER.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD INITIATES WITH STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
THIS WILL WARRANT SLIGHT POPS GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE WEEK APPEARS DRY WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE NATURAL STATE.
BY THE WEEKEND...THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON FRONTAL
PLACEMENT NORTH OF THE FA. GFS SHOWS BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM OVER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS. ECMWF PLACES THIS FEATURE
FURTHER SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE AR/MO BORDER. EITHER WAY...IN THIS
FORECAST CYCLE IT WOULD ONLY MEAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH
RAIN CHANCES HOLDING OFF TILL THE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL READINGS...AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS UNDERNEATH UPPER RIDGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 69 83 65 88 / 70 60 20 10
CAMDEN AR 74 89 68 90 / 50 50 40 20
HARRISON AR 66 82 63 86 / 60 50 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 72 87 66 90 / 60 60 30 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 71 86 66 90 / 60 60 30 10
MONTICELLO AR 74 88 68 90 / 50 60 40 20
MOUNT IDA AR 72 86 66 89 / 60 60 30 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 67 82 63 87 / 60 50 10 10
NEWPORT AR 70 84 65 88 / 70 60 20 10
PINE BLUFF AR 73 87 67 90 / 50 60 40 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 69 84 64 88 / 60 60 20 10
SEARCY AR 70 85 66 89 / 60 60 20 10
STUTTGART AR 72 86 67 90 / 60 60 30 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...60
000
FXUS64 KLZK 041413
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
913 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATE REQUIRED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW MCS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN
KANSAS MOVING GENERALLY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. WHILE A SLOW
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY FIRE UP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND AIDED BY AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WILL ALSO LOWER
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND ADJUST CLOUD COVER.
UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE PICKED UP THIS MORNING...OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE STATE LATER TODAY...AFFECTING NORTH TAF SITES
FIRST AND SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE DAY...WITH MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES PREVAILING TONIGHT AND WITH MORE INTENSE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF RAIN LATER TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST INTO AR...AND WHERE
IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. ANY THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
ANY HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
CURRENT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN KS TO MO MOVING DUE EAST AND
SHOULD ONLY AFFECT AR WITH SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS SPREADING SOUTH.
PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY AFFECT NORTH AR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO QUASI STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OK AND
AR STATE LINE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS AR DURING THE DAY...AND MAY
ALSO HELP TOUCH OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION. SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS
NOW IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER AR. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A
PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES...LI -7...CAPE 2600 J/KG...WITH
A LIGHT VEERING FLOW...WITH NW STORM MOTION FLOW.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED CONVECTION TODAY...AND MAINLY NORTHERN
AREAS WITH SOME ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH WARM FRONT TO DRIFT ACROSS AR. HAVE UPPED POP JUST A BIT
OVER NORTHERN AR DUE TO THESE FACTORS. TEMPS OVER SOUTH AR WHERE
MAX HEATING WILL OCCUR EXPECTED TO BE IN UPPER 90S...WITH ISOLATED
HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100 TO 105. DUE TO LOW AREA COVERAGE AND
SOME UNCERTAINTY...HEAT ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED.
THEN GREATER CHANCES OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS THE
BOUNDARY SAGS INTO AR...AND UPPER ENERGY MOVES ACROSS AR. POPS ARE
UP ACCORDINGLY. AT THIS TIME...ONLY ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE...WITH HAIL AND WIND MAIN THREATS...DUE TO TIMING
OF FRONTAL MOVEMENT...AND UPPER ENERGY SHEARING OUT. ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...DUE TO ELEVATED PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND
1.5 INCHES. GFS A BIT FASTER THAN NAM AND EURO...TAKING FRONT TO
SOUTH AR BY NOON SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS PRECIP OVER AR A
BIT LONGER...MATCHING SLOWER MODELS...AND THIS STILL LOOKS BEST
SOLUTION. HELD ON TO POPS MONDAY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH AR DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL POSITION. TEMPS WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES...WITH SOME A BIT COOLER.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD INITIATES WITH STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
THIS WILL WARRANT SLIGHT POPS GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE WEEK APPEARS DRY WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE NATURAL STATE.
BY THE WEEKEND...THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON FRONTAL
PLACEMENT NORTH OF THE FA. GFS SHOWS BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM OVER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS. ECMWF PLACES THIS FEATURE
FURTHER SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE AR/MO BORDER. EITHER WAY...IN THIS
FORECAST CYCLE IT WOULD ONLY MEAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH
RAIN CHANCES HOLDING OFF TILL THE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL READINGS...AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS UNDERNEATH UPPER RIDGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 94 69 83 64 / 30 50 50 20
CAMDEN AR 100 75 90 71 / 10 40 50 50
HARRISON AR 92 66 83 64 / 50 50 50 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 99 74 86 69 / 10 50 50 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 96 74 86 67 / 10 50 50 30
MONTICELLO AR 100 75 91 72 / 10 40 50 50
MOUNT IDA AR 98 74 87 66 / 10 50 50 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 93 68 84 64 / 50 60 50 10
NEWPORT AR 93 70 83 63 / 20 50 50 30
PINE BLUFF AR 98 74 88 70 / 10 40 50 40
RUSSELLVILLE AR 95 70 86 67 / 30 50 50 30
SEARCY AR 95 70 85 66 / 10 50 50 30
STUTTGART AR 95 73 85 68 / 10 50 50 30
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...60
000
FXUS64 KLZK 041145
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
645 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE PICKED UP THIS MORNING...OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE STATE LATER TODAY...AFFECTING NORTH TAF SITES
FIRST AND SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE DAY...WITH MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES PREVAILING TONIGHT AND WITH MORE INTENSE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF RAIN LATER TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST INTO AR...AND WHERE
IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. ANY THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
ANY HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
CURRENT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN KS TO MO MOVING DUE EAST AND
SHOULD ONLY AFFECT AR WITH SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS SPREADING SOUTH.
PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY AFFECT NORTH AR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO QUASI STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OK AND
AR STATE LINE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS AR DURING THE DAY...AND MAY
ALSO HELP TOUCH OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION. SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS
NOW IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER AR. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A
PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES...LI -7...CAPE 2600 J/KG...WITH
A LIGHT VEERING FLOW...WITH NW STORM MOTION FLOW.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED CONVECTION TODAY...AND MAINLY NORTHERN
AREAS WITH SOME ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH WARM FRONT TO DRIFT ACROSS AR. HAVE UPPED POP JUST A BIT
OVER NORTHERN AR DUE TO THESE FACTORS. TEMPS OVER SOUTH AR WHERE
MAX HEATING WILL OCCUR EXPECTED TO BE IN UPPER 90S...WITH ISOLATED
HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100 TO 105. DUE TO LOW AREA COVERAGE AND
SOME UNCERTAINTY...HEAT ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED.
THEN GREATER CHANCES OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS THE
BOUNDARY SAGS INTO AR...AND UPPER ENERGY MOVES ACROSS AR. POPS ARE
UP ACCORDINGLY. AT THIS TIME...ONLY ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE...WITH HAIL AND WIND MAIN THREATS...DUE TO TIMING
OF FRONTAL MOVEMENT...AND UPPER ENERGY SHEARING OUT. ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...DUE TO ELEVATED PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND
1.5 INCHES. GFS A BIT FASTER THAN NAM AND EURO...TAKING FRONT TO
SOUTH AR BY NOON SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS PRECIP OVER AR A
BIT LONGER...MATCHING SLOWER MODELS...AND THIS STILL LOOKS BEST
SOLUTION. HELD ON TO POPS MONDAY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH AR DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL POSITION. TEMPS WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES...WITH SOME A BIT COOLER.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD INITIATES WITH STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
THIS WILL WARRANT SLIGHT POPS GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE WEEK APPEARS DRY WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE NATURAL STATE.
BY THE WEEKEND...THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON FRONTAL
PLACEMENT NORTH OF THE FA. GFS SHOWS BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM OVER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS. ECMWF PLACES THIS FEATURE
FURTHER SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE AR/MO BORDER. EITHER WAY...IN THIS
FORECAST CYCLE IT WOULD ONLY MEAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH
RAIN CHANCES HOLDING OFF TILL THE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL READINGS...AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS UNDERNEATH UPPER RIDGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 94 69 83 64 / 30 50 50 20
CAMDEN AR 100 75 90 71 / 10 40 50 50
HARRISON AR 92 66 83 64 / 40 50 50 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 99 74 86 69 / 20 50 50 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 96 74 86 67 / 20 50 50 30
MONTICELLO AR 100 75 91 72 / 10 40 50 50
MOUNT IDA AR 98 74 87 66 / 20 50 50 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 93 68 84 64 / 40 50 50 10
NEWPORT AR 93 70 83 63 / 30 50 50 30
PINE BLUFF AR 98 74 88 70 / 20 40 50 40
RUSSELLVILLE AR 95 70 86 67 / 20 50 50 30
SEARCY AR 95 70 85 66 / 20 50 50 30
STUTTGART AR 95 73 85 68 / 20 50 50 30
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...61
000
FXUS64 KLZK 040803
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
303 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF RAIN LATER TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST INTO AR...AND WHERE
IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. ANY THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
ANY HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
CURRENT CONVECTION OVER EASTERN KS TO MO MOVING DUE EAST AND
SHOULD ONLY AFFECT AR WITH SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS SPREADING SOUTH.
PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY AFFECT NORTH AR WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO QUASI STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OK AND
AR STATE LINE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS AR DURING THE DAY...AND MAY
ALSO HELP TOUCH OFF ISOLATED CONVECTION. SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS
NOW IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER AR. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A
PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.80 INCHES...LI -7...CAPE 2600 J/KG...WITH
A LIGHT VEERING FLOW...WITH NW STORM MOTION FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED CONVECTION TODAY...AND MAINLY NORTHERN
AREAS WITH SOME ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH WARM FRONT TO DRIFT ACROSS AR. HAVE UPPED POP JUST A BIT
OVER NORTHERN AR DUE TO THESE FACTORS. TEMPS OVER SOUTH AR WHERE
MAX HEATING WILL OCCUR EXPECTED TO BE IN UPPER 90S...WITH ISOLATED
HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100 TO 105. DUE TO LOW AREA COVERAGE AND
SOME UNCERTAINTY...HEAT ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED.
THEN GREATER CHANCES OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS THE
BOUNDARY SAGS INTO AR...AND UPPER ENERGY MOVES ACROSS AR. POPS ARE
UP ACCORDINGLY. AT THIS TIME...ONLY ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE...WITH HAIL AND WIND MAIN THREATS...DUE TO TIMING
OF FRONTAL MOVEMENT...AND UPPER ENERGY SHEARING OUT. ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...DUE TO ELEVATED PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND
1.5 INCHES. GFS A BIT FASTER THAN NAM AND EURO...TAKING FRONT TO
SOUTH AR BY NOON SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS PRECIP OVER AR A
BIT LONGER...MATCHING SLOWER MODELS...AND THIS STILL LOOKS BEST
SOLUTION. HELD ON TO POPS MONDAY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH AR DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL POSITION. TEMPS WILL BE BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES...WITH SOME A BIT COOLER.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PERIOD INITIATES WITH STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
THIS WILL WARRANT SLIGHT POPS GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE WEEK APPEARS DRY WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE NATURAL STATE.
BY THE WEEKEND...THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON FRONTAL
PLACEMENT NORTH OF THE FA. GFS SHOWS BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM OVER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS. ECMWF PLACES THIS FEATURE
FURTHER SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE AR/MO BORDER. EITHER WAY...IN THIS
FORECAST CYCLE IT WOULD ONLY MEAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH
RAIN CHANCES HOLDING OFF TILL THE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL READINGS...AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS UNDERNEATH UPPER RIDGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 94 70 84 65 / 20 50 50 20
CAMDEN AR 99 76 91 72 / 10 30 40 50
HARRISON AR 92 67 83 65 / 40 50 50 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 99 75 86 70 / 20 40 50 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 98 75 86 70 / 20 50 50 30
MONTICELLO AR 100 76 91 73 / 20 30 40 50
MOUNT IDA AR 98 75 87 67 / 20 40 50 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 93 69 84 65 / 40 50 50 10
NEWPORT AR 93 71 83 64 / 20 50 50 20
PINE BLUFF AR 98 75 89 71 / 20 40 40 40
RUSSELLVILLE AR 97 71 86 68 / 20 50 50 20
SEARCY AR 96 71 85 67 / 20 50 50 20
STUTTGART AR 98 74 86 69 / 20 40 50 30
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...60
000
FXUS64 KLZK 040535
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1235 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009
.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...INCREASING
BY SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN TERMINALS AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP TO MAKE IT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WITH JUST VCTS WORDING AT KLLQ AND
KPBF.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINED OVER THE NATURAL STATE THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BEFORE PICKING UP FROM
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH
NORTHERN ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INCLUDED PRECIPITATION IN
HRO AND BPK TAFS...BUT RAINFALL LOOKS TO REMAIN OUT OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
CLOUDS CONT TO LINGER OVR MAINLY NRN AND ERN AR THIS AFTN...ASSOCD
WITH UPR ENERGY SLIDING EWD ACRS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...LEFTOVER
SFC BNDRY /WARM FNT/ WAS ALIGNED TO THE W OF AR. THE BNDRY WL CONT
TO MOVE EWD THRU THE FA TNGT AND EARLY SAT. LTL IN THE WAY OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...SO LEFT THE FCST DRY.
UNSETTLED WX CONDS RETURN LATER SAT AS A CDFNT DROPS SWD INTO THE
AREA. ATMOSPHERE WL RMN CAPPED INTO THE EARLY AFTN OVR THE FA. SWLY
SFC FLOW WL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S OVR MOST AREAS.
FCST HEAT INDICES SAT AFTN WL APCH CRITICAL 105 DEGREE VALUE OVR SRN
AR...BUT FOR LESS THAN 3 HRS AND ONLY FOR ONE DAY. THUS...HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE HEADLINES OUT OF THE FCST.
FCST CAPES ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 2-3K J/KG RANGE HEAD OF THE
FNT...WITH FCST LI/S OF -4 TO -7 C OVR NRN AR. THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR
STORMS WL EXIST OVR THE NRN HALF OF AR LATE SAT AFTN/SAT NGT...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. THE CHCS OF SVR
STORMS WL LINGER INTO SUN ACRS SRN AR...AHEAD OF THE FNT. THE MAIN
LIMITATION FOR ORGANIZED STORMS MIGHT BE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY IF
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER PERSISTS.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THE SWD PROGRESSION OF THE
CDFNT THRU AR LATER IN THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF RMNS SOMEWHAT SLOWER
THAN THE NAM/GFS AND HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO ITS SOLUTION. WL KEEP
GOOD CHC OF SHRA/TSRA IN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SAT NGT AND SUN
ALONG THE FNT. AS THE FNT WORKS FURTHER SWD LATER IN THE WEEKEND...
RAIN CHCS WL DCRS THRU THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING AND EXPANDING
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS LIFTS NE INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC...WITH THE TRAILING TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY LOSING
DEFINITION. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF WHEN THE
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS AS ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FEATURE...WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY LATE DAY
5 INTO DAY 6. THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...BOTH MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP SOME RESIDUAL
ENERGY FROM THE SHEARED OUT TROUGH AXIS ROTATING WEST AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WITH THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR DAY 5 AND 6 AS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH THE PEAK SOLAR HEATING.
WENT WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS DURING THIS
PERIOD. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS IN SOONER AND A BIT STRONGER...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 70 84 65 88 / 50 50 20 20
CAMDEN AR 76 91 72 91 / 20 40 50 30
HARRISON AR 67 83 65 87 / 50 50 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 75 86 70 90 / 30 50 30 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 75 86 70 89 / 40 50 30 30
MONTICELLO AR 76 91 73 91 / 20 40 50 30
MOUNT IDA AR 75 87 67 90 / 30 50 30 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 69 84 65 87 / 50 50 10 10
NEWPORT AR 71 83 64 88 / 50 50 20 20
PINE BLUFF AR 75 89 71 90 / 30 40 40 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 71 86 68 89 / 40 50 20 20
SEARCY AR 71 85 67 89 / 40 50 20 20
STUTTGART AR 74 86 69 90 / 30 50 30 30
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...61
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