000
FXUS65 KPUB 032036
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
236 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)

CURRENTLY...RATHER DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH WAS ALONG THE
ARKANSAS RIVER EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS DRIFTED NORTHWARD...AND WAS
LOCATED ALONG A KDEN TO KGCK LINE AT 20Z. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH DEWPOINTS
HAVE YET TO FALL...REMAINING MAINLY IN THE 50S ALONG AND EAST OF
I-25. AS A RESULT...CAPES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS
ARE FAIRLY HIGH...WITH LAPS ANALYSIS SUGGESTING MOST LOCATIONS
RUNNING 1000 J/KG OR HIGHER. CONVECTION ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS...POSSIBLY AIDED BY LIFT AHEAD OF MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTEX OVER NORTHERN NM. WITH VEERED SURFACE WIND
PROFILES AND LIMITED 0-6KM SHEAR...SUSPECT MAIN SEVERE THREAT
TODAY WILL BE STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN RATHER HIGH
DOWNDRAFT CAPES AS INDICATED ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE. SWOMCD
ALREADY OUT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH LOOKS
REASONABLE...THOUGH WOULDN`T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A LOCALLY
ENHANCED RISK OF A SEVERE STORM FARTHER WEST...ESPECIALLY ALONG A
KTAD TO KLHX LINE...WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY BACK TOWARD THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOSHES BACK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...AS
PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY RATHER
SLOW TO DIE AFTER SUNSET...AS POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE AND DYNAMIC
UPWARD MOTION COMBINE TO KEEP STORMS GOING. STILL SOME THREAT OF A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO INTO THE EVENING....ESPECIALLY ACROSS A NARROW
ZONE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHERE CAPE AND ENHANCED SHEAR
DUE TO MORE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS COINCIDE. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS
TO POPS...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE.

SATURDAY...STILL APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SET-UP FOR DAY 2 SEVERE ACROSS
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR. 0-6KM SHEAR REACHES 40 KNOTS IN A NARROW RIBBON JUST WEST
OF I-25...AS WEAK SOUTHEAST WINDS KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...ALLOWING CAPES TO CLIMB ABOVE 1000 J/KG. WEAK SHORT WAVE
CROSSES THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE
250 MB JET BRUSHING BY THE STATE. AREAL EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT MAY BE LIMITED...AS INSTABILITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES OVER THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. AGAIN...CURRENT FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE.  --PETERSEN

.LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BENEATH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG NRN
PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE...COMBINED WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVES
RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SPELL A GOOD CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SFC DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S WILL YIELD CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.  LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS NOW FOR SAT
NIGHT...WITH ANY MCS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WELL TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE
FRONT.  THIS LOOKS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THAT LOW LVL JET WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE BEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE VCNTY OF THIS
BOUNDARY.  BOTH NAM AND GFS KEEP SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AS PRESSURE FIELDS ON
THE 1.5 PVU SFC STILL SHOWING SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH.

NEXT SHORTWAVE FOR SUNDAY LOOKS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
MOVING ACROSS CO IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME.  STILL PLENTY OF LOW
LVL MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS TO WORK WITH AND BOTH NAM AND GFS
DEVELOP AN MCS ACROSS EASTERN CO SUNDAY EVENING.  HAVE INCREASED
POPS SOME FOR SUNDAY.  AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...DEEP LAYER SHEARS
STILL LOOK A LITTLE STRONGER THIS DAY...THOUGH GFS AND NAM DIFFER
WITH HOW MUCH LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT.  THE MORE MOIST NAM
(DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S) IS SHOWING AROUND 2000 J/KG OF CAPE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF I-25 CORRIDOR OUT TO KLHX.  SLIGHTLY
DRIER GFS (DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S) GIVES AROUND 1000
J/KG OF CAPE.  0-6 KM SHEARS OF 40 KTS WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT...AND SPC HAS ALL OF SE CO OUTLOOKED FOR SVR
POTENTIAL...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.  FOR NOW...THINK MAIN THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MONDAY MAY BE THE START OF THE DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION...THOUGH WITH
PLENTY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE STILL RESIDING ACROSS THE PLAINS THERE
WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER FCST AREA WILL
ALSO BE ON THE SUBSIDENT BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING INTO
THE CEN PLAINS...SO MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO
GO.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS DAY CLOSELY...AS BOTH NAM/GFS STILL HAVE
SOME HEALTHY CAPES (UP TO 1500 J/KG) AND WITH MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...0-6KM SHEARS ARE RUNNING AROUND 40KTS...WHICH WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
BORDER COUNTIES.

UPPER FLOW INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
INITIALLY THIS USHERS IN DRIER AIR ALOFT...AND LEE TROF ON THE
PLAINS KICKS THE DRY LINE EASTWARD INTO THE CEN PLAINS EACH DAY.
CONCEPTUALLY THIS WOULD SUGGEST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S...EVEN
APPROACHING 100 ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 70S/80S FOR THE MOUNTAINS
BY MID/LATE IN THE WEEK.  THIS WILL ALSO DECREASE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. BY THURS THOUGH...GFS STILL HINTING AT ADVECTING MORE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD...THOUGH IT STILL LOOKS MEAGER AT
THIS POINT.  NEXT UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN TIER
MAY DROP ANOTHER FRONT INTO NE CO BY FRIDAY.  FOR NOW IT APPEARS TO
STAY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP FRI FCST HOT AND ON THE
MOSTLY DRY SIDE.  -KT

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT INCREASING TSRA COVERAGE ALL TAF SITES AFTER
21Z...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT KPUB AND KCOS. STORMS COULD LINGER TOWARD 06Z
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH CONVECTION PUSHING EAST INTO
KS BY EARLY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA IS FORECAST FOR MOST OF
THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASED MOISTURE PRODUCING AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS/VIS AT THE TAF SITES AFTER 20Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

10/31

000
FXUS65 KGJT 031657
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1055 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.UPDATE...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.23 INCHES OBSERVED ON THE MORNING
SOUNDING AT GJT. GOES SOUNDER INDICATES DECENT PLUME OF MOISTURE
BEING FUNNELED NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND INTO EASTERN
GREAT BASIN...THOUGH SOME DRYING APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING WITH GOES
SOUNDER PRECIP WATER VALUES 0.7 TO 0.9 INCH OVER ERN UT. AN EARLY
LOOK AT THE 12Z MODELS SHOW WEAK DISTURBANCE/S/ CROSSING NE UT/NW CO
WITH SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND LIMITED SHEAR THERE. BUT
OVERALL INITIAL IMPRESSION IS FOR NOT MUCH DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE INHIBITION TO CONVECTION
IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS SO EVEN WEAK DYNAMICS COULD PUT A
LITTLE MORE OOMMPH INTO STORMS ACROSS THE N. FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH...BELIEVE STORMS DRIVEN MAINLY BY DAYTIME HEATING. MAIN STORM
THREAT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME HAIL POSSIBLE MAINLY N.
LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM FLOODING POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS
THAT RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL THE PAST DAY OR TWO. NO CHANGE TO
CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
DECREASE OF CLOUDS ACROSS SE UT PORTION OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...NO APPARENT DECREASE IN MOISTURE CONTENT OVER OUR CWA AS
SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE. LATEST MODEL RUNS
INDICATING A LITTLE DECREASE IN PW VALUES ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY...
THOUGH STILL IN THE 0.75 TO 1 INCH RANGE.  MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE
TOO LOW ON ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT EXPECTATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO HAVE SOME SATURATED SOILS IN OUR CWA
...SO SHOULD NOT TAKE AN ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF RAIN TO CAUSE SOME
RUNOFF PROBLEMS TODAY.  WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
NOW...THOUGH WILL MENTION ISOLATED/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WILL LET DAY CREW EXAMINE UPPER AIR DATA AND
OTHER FACTORS DURING MORNING HOURS TO RE-EXAMINE POSSIBLE NEED FOR
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

ANOTHER CONSIDERATION FOR TODAY IS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT HAS
MOVED INTO WESTERN UT AND WILL LIKELY BE MOVING INTO OUR CWA DURING
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING
SLOWER THAN MODELS HAVE INDICATED...AND THEREFORE EXPECT IT TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR FOR OUR CWA TO HELP GENERATE STRONGER CONVECTION
THAN YESTERDAY...WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO POSSIBLY GENERATE
SOME STORMS WITH ROTATION OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA.  ISOLATED STORMS APPROACHING SEVERE INTENSITY FOR HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.  COULD BE AN INTERESTING
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EXTRA HELP POSSIBLY NEEDED IN OPERATIONS
AREA.

THINGS APPEAR TO BE QUIETER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...
THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY FOR
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ACROSS OUR CWA...
THEN EXPECT ON AVERAGE 2-3 DEGREES WARMER ON THE 4TH OF JULY AS A
LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THAN TODAY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
TIME OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASING SLIDES EAST...PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA. THE LAST OF A SERIES OF WEAK VORT MAXES SLIDES DOWN THE
EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY...THE SHARP PROGRESSIVE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. TUE AND WED SHOULD ALSO BE DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE WED AS A STRENGTHENING LOW OVER
THE PACNW MOVES INLAND. THU AND FRI SHOULD REMAIN HOT...DRY AND
BREEZY WITH SW WINDS ALOFT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLANS AND
PANHANDLES AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
TO SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS BY THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
LIKELY IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ON 4TH OF JULY
MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY THOUGH AREAL COVERAGE AND
RAINFALL POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE LESS THAN SATURDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

.CO...NONE.
.UT...NONE.

$$

UPDATE.......JAD
SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM....CJC
AVIATION.....JRP

000
FXUS65 KPUB 031040
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
440 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SHORT TERM...

(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

...A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE DAY TODAY...

CURRENTLY...UPPER RIDGE WAS NEARLY CENTERED OVER TEXAS EARLY FRI
MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER UTAH...AND A VERY HEALTHY PLUME OF
MOISTURE WAS STREAMING UP ACROSS AZ AND NM AND THE 4 CORNERS INTO
COLORADO. CONVECTION CONTINUED THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS
NM...AS PER LTG CHARTS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S MOST AREAS AS OF 330 AM...BUT WERE STILL
HANGING ON IN THE 70S ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE
50S AND 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS THIS AM. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOOKED
TO BE SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z
MODEL RUNS IN PUSHING THE SURFACE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THIS MORNING...WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST SFC WIND ACROSS ALL OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS BY 15Z. ASSUMING THIS IS THE CORRECT SOLUTION...THIS
WILL HELP TEMPS WARM QUICKLY THROUGH MIDDAY WHILE CONVECTION FIRES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...THE FRONT IS THEN SCHEDULED TO
MAKE A RETURN...CROSSING BACK OVER MONUMENT HILL AROUND 21Z. BY 00Z
IT SAGS DOWN ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY...WITH CAPES RANGING FROM
1800-2500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KTS. THE FRONT
CONTINUES DROPPING SOUTH THRU THE NIGHT...REACHING THE NM BORDER BY
12Z. WHAT THIS MEANS...IS THAT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A 4-6 HR
WINDOW BEGINNING RIGHT AROUND 3 PM WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE E PLAINS AND DOWN ALONG THE
I25 CORRIDOR. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND DEFINITELY
PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ON TAP THRU LATE AFTN AND EVE
FROM THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE AND EAST. AS FOR THE MTS AND HIGH
VALLEYS...THE MOISTURE PLUME COMBINED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING
INTO THE STATE THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-MORNING ALONG THE CONTDVD. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL...AND INCLUDED SUCH WORDING IN
THE WX GRIDS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...

(SAT-THU)

...ACTIVE WX PATTERN THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...GETTING HOT NEXT WEEK...

THINGS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE WEEKEND CONVECTIVE-WISE
AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND REGION
WILL BE UNDER SYNOPTICALLY FORCED UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW. FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE MODEST AND WILL BE FROM A WNW TO NW DIRECTION. DEWPTS IN THE
50S COMBINED WITH HEATING SHOLD ALLOW FOR ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF CAPE BY
AFTERNOON. LIKEWISE...I ANTICIPATE A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SVR
STORMS TO AFFECT THE REGION BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

ATTM...SUNDAY HAS ME A BIT MORE CONCERNED AS FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A
TAD BIT STRONGER AND I ANTICPATE A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW TO
ACCENTUATE UPWARD VV ON THIS DAY. GIVEN PREVIOUS HISTORY OF THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN...WE MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME RATHER LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL ON THIS DAY ALONG THE 1-25 CORRIDOR.

SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE MTNS BOTH DAYS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WITH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA...TEMPS WILL BE
SEASONABLE...WITH MAINLY 80S OVER THE PLAINS AND 60S AND 70
MTNS/VALLEYS.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND WE START TO DRY OUT A BIT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS.

MID LVL FLOW WILL TIGHTEN UP FROM THE SW BY MIDWEEK. LIKEWISE...I
EXPECT IT TO WARM UP CONSIDERABLY OVER THE CWA AS THE COMBINATION OF
DRY AIR ALOFT AND MODERATE SFC DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
GET INTO THE 90S AND 100S ACROSS THE PLAINS. SINCE WE HAVE BEEN
RATHER MOIST THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS I DO NOT EXPECT ANY FIRE WX
CONCERNS...HOWEVER...WE WILL BE DRYING OUT UNDER THIS REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...

PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE 3 TAF
SITES NEXT 24H...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD PRESENT
SLIGHT DEGRADATION IN CONDITIONS THIS AFTN AND EVE...WITH SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT TIMING FOR KALS AS OPPOSED TO KCOS AND KPUB.
KALS...ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE MORNING THEN SCATTERED THROUGH THE
AFTN WITH OCNL MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS...SHOULD BEGIN CLEARING AFTER 00Z. KCOS AND
KPUB...CONVECTION DEVELOPING A BIT LATER BUT COULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FIRST PUSHES TO THE NORTH THRU THE
MORNING...THEN DROPS BACK SOUTH AFTER 21Z. POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS GUSTS POSSIBLE...BUT PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AND COULD DROP VSBY BELOW 5SM AND INTO
MVFR CATEGORY 21Z-03Z FOR KCOS...23Z-04Z FOR KPUB.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

27/34

000
FXUS65 KGJT 030950
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
350 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
DECREASE OF CLOUDS ACROSS SE UT PORTION OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...NO APPARENT DECREASE IN MOISTURE CONTENT OVER OUR CWA AS
SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE. LATEST MODEL RUNS
INDICATING A LITTLE DECREASE IN PW VALUES ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY...
THOUGH STILL IN THE 0.75 TO 1 INCH RANGE.  MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE
TOO LOW ON ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT EXPECTATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO HAVE SOME SATURATED SOILS IN OUR CWA
...SO SHOULD NOT TAKE AN ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF RAIN TO CAUSE SOME
RUNOFF PROBLEMS TODAY.  WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
NOW...THOUGH WILL MENTION ISOLATED/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WILL LET DAY CREW EXAMINE UPPER AIR DATA AND
OTHER FACTORS DURING MORNING HOURS TO RE-EXAMINE POSSIBLE NEED FOR
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

ANOTHER CONSIDERATION FOR TODAY IS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT HAS
MOVED INTO WESTERN UT AND WILL LIKELY BE MOVING INTO OUR CWA DURING
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.  THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING
SLOWER THAN MODELS HAVE INDICATED...AND THEREFORE EXPECT IT TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR FOR OUR CWA TO HELP GENERATE STRONGER CONVECTION
THAN YESTERDAY...WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO POSSIBLY GENERATE
SOME STORMS WITH ROTATION OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA.  ISOLATED STORMS APPROACHING SEVERE INTENSITY FOR HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.  COULD BE AN INTERESTING
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EXTRA HELP POSSIBLY NEEDED IN OPERATIONS
AREA.

THINGS APPEAR TO BE QUIETER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...
THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY FOR
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ACROSS OUR CWA...
THEN EXPECT ON AVERAGE 2-3 DEGREES WARMER ON THE 4TH OF JULY AS A
LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THAN TODAY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
TIME OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASING SLIDES EAST...PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA. THE LAST OF A SERIES OF WEAK VORT MAXES SLIDES DOWN THE
EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND SHOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY...THE SHARP PROGRESSIVE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE WITH LITTLE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. TUE AND WED SHOULD ALSO BE DRY AND RELATIVELY HOT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE WED AS A STRENGTHENING LOW OVER
THE PACNW MOVES INLAND. THU AND FRI SHOULD REMAIN HOT...DRY AND
BREEZY WITH SW WINDS ALOFT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLANS AND
PANHANDLES AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
TO SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS BY THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
LIKELY IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ON 4TH OF JULY
MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY THOUGH AREAL COVERAGE AND
RAINFALL POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE LESS THAN SATURDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

.CO...NONE.
.UT...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM....CJC
AVIATION.....JRP

000
FXUS65 KBOU 030907
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
307 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SHORT TERM...SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO IS
BRINGING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE STATE.
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MAKE IT TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING QG LIFT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND FAR
EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE WAVE PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA...MODELS SHOWING GOOD QG DESCENT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEW POINTS WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
DECREASE ABOUT A QUARTER INCH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPES WILL
BE 500 TO 1000 J/KG. BECAUSE OF THE INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY BECAUSE OF THE QG
DESCENT VERSUS GOOD LIFT THAT WE HAD YESTERDAY. TRICKY PART OF THE
FORECAST IS HOW MUCH WILL THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZE BEFORE THE TROUGH
AXIS PASSES THROUGH. LOOKS LIKE THE WAVE WON`T PASS UNTIL EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES....SO CAN`T RULE OUT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. PLUS IF THE WAVE SLOWS DOWN AT ALL...CONVECTION
WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE GREATER.

.LONG TERM...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN
FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
EAST OF THE MTNS ON SATURDAY WITH A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE...ESPLY AT LOWER LEVELS...ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE. BY SUNDAY WARMER SFC TEMPERATURES..THE PASSAGE OF A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND HIGHER DEWPTS USHERED IN BY WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW PRODUCED BY A SFC HIGH DROPPING OUT THE NEBRASKA ARE ALL
EXPECTED TO ELEVATE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON THE PLAINS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WELL ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES EAST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY MID-AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW LATE DAY SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES SHOULD THEN DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT WEEK
AS A MUCH DRIER...WARMER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT BASIN. ANY LATE
DAY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SPOTTY AND LARGELY CONFINED
TO AREAS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. AND ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
LIGHT. LASTLY COULD SEE TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY AS MUCH AS 3-5C
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER COLORADO WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN
ABOVE 6000 FEET. AIRMASS IS MOIST...BUT DUE TO THE LACK OF COOLING
DO NOT EXPECT FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS FORM THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM 19Z TO 01Z.
AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT THIS EVENING BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$
MEIER/BAKER

000
FXUS65 KPUB 022048
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
248 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY...

AFTER AN INITIAL WARM START TO THE DAY...TEMPS OVER THE LOWER
ARKANSAS VALLEY HAVE BEEN SLOWLY BUT GRADUALLY RISING...AS OF 100 PM
STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S MOST SPOTS...WITH BACA COUNTY NOW IN
THE 90S. SHORT WAVE IS NOW MOVING INTO WRN CO...AND THIS IS HELPING
TO SPARK STORMS OVER THE MTS. SHEAR IS FAIRLY MODEST...WITH BULK
SHEARS AT 20-30 KTS AT BEST. PRIMARY STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE
MULTICELLULAR. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...WITH
HAIL UP TO AN INCH. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS WILL BE OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND E...OVER N EL PASO...CROWLEY...AND KIOWA COUNTIES.
THE UPPER WAVE SHOULD BE OVER ERN CO AND OUT OF THE PICTURE LATER
THIS EVE. SIMILARLY TO LAST NIGHT...ONE OR TWO MCS COULD MATERIALIZE
WITH THE DEPARTING WAVE OVER NERN CO. MOST OF THE PLAINS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHILE OUT WEST WILL KEEP LOW GRADE POPS
OVR THE CENTRAL MTS...AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM UP
FROM THE S AND W. WILL KEEP A FEW MORE CLOUDS IN THE GRIDS THAN IN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

FRI WILL BE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WX DAY...ESPECIALLY N OF THE
ARKANSAS LATE IN THE DAY. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN
AND BULK SHEARS SHOULD IMPROVE TO ABOUT 30-40KTS. LATEST NAM HAS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SWD TO THE ARK RIVER BY 00Z SAT. N OF THIS
BOUNDARY...CAPE WILL BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. WITH BOUNDARY
ENHANCEMENT...THINK THAT SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATE
OVER TELLER AND NRN EL PASO COUNTIES. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EWD AND SWD FRI EVE AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
W...AND COULD SEE SOME TS ACTIVITY OVER THE SERN GRASSLANDS AS EARLY
AS LATE AFTERNOON. WITH LATER TIMING OF FRONT...TEMPS WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER ON THE PLAINS...WITH LOWER TO MID 90S AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR
HIGHS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND
THE ADJACENT EASTERN MTS FRIDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY SUNDAY AS WELL...

FRIDAY EVENING...FRONT APPEARS TO HANG UP ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS
RIVER. WITH DEW POINTS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IN THE 50S...SBCAPES
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1000-1400 J/KG.  DEEP LAYER SHEARS RUNNING
AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS IN THE NORTH...TO SLIGHTLY LOWER ACROSS THE
SOUTH.  APPEARS BEST THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING
WIND GUST POTENTIAL.  LCLS STILL LOOK A LITTLE TOO HIGH AND LOW LVL
WIND SHEAR TOO WEAK FOR A SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT AT THIS POINT.
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
EASTERN CO FRI NIGHT...WHICH HELPS TO DRIVE SFC FRONT INTO NRN NM BY
12Z SATURDAY.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL DAY 2 SET UP FOR PORTIONS OF THE SE
PLAINS.  WEAK CONVECTION COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE PLAINS SAT
MORNING AS GFS SHOWS A FAIRLY DISTINCT SHORTWAVE POSITIONED ACROSS
CEN/SE CO MOVING INTO THE CEN PLAINS BY 18Z.  PROBABLY A BRIEF LULL
IN THE LATE MORNING...THEN NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NRN/CEN CO
DURING THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.  GFS/NAM DIFFER WITH THE DEW
POINTS WITH NAM MUCH RICHER WITH LOW LVL MOISTURE (SFC DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 50S/LOWER 60S AS COMPARED TO GFS (SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER
50S.) REALITY MAY END UP BEING SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. MAIN FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL PROBABLY BE ALONG THE FRONT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MTS/PALMER DIVIDE/RATON RIDGE.
OF COURSE...MOISTER NAM HAS THE HIGHEST CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000+
J/KG...WITH HIGHER MAXIMUMS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
ACROSS NE COLORADO. DEEP LAYER SHEARS RUNNING AROUND 30-40 KTS
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL WHICH WOULD BE JUST SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS. NOT MUCH CIN IN EITHER MODEL BY AFTN...SO AS
THUNDERSTORMS ROLL EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS...ONE OR TWO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE PLAINS. SUNDAY IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES LOOK
QUITE A BIT COOLER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTING
THROUGH THE MORNING. BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE SUN AFTN. BOTH MODELS BREAK OUT
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD QPF ACROSS THE AREA...DEVELOPING INTO AN MCS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT ACCORDING TO THE GFS. ONCE
AGAIN...DEW POINTS VARY ACROSS THE PLAINS DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...BUT PATTERN SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 1000+ J/KG ALONG
THE EASTERN MTS. ACROSS THE PLAINS...BOTH GFS AND NAM KEEP AXIS OF
HIGHEST INSTABILITY ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS TX/EC NM. ONCE AGAIN...DEEP LAYER SHEARS RUNNING AROUND
30-40 KTS SO IF SUFFICIENT SFC BASED HEATING CAN OCCUR...THEN ONE
OR TWO SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL HAVE TO WAIT
AND SEE. MAIN CHANGE TO GRIDS WAS TO COOL OFF SAT AND SUN HIGH
TEMPS. ALSO INCREASED POPS ACROSS EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT.

PATTERN TRENDS TOWARDS LESS ACTIVE BY EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS BACK EASTWARD
AND BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LEE TROF REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH DRY LINE WAVERING EAST TO WEST ACROSS SE CO.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EACH DAY
TO KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.  AFTER
MONDAY...ANY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT ARE VERY HARD TO
DISCERN.  DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR AT LEAST TUES
AND WED BEFORE SOME INCREASE IN MID LVL MOISTURE OCCURS BY NEXT
THURS. THUS WILL LEAN FORECAST TOWARDS A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.
COULD ALSO SEE A STORM OR TWO FIRE ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS
EASTERN CO EACH AFTN/EVENING BUT WITHOUT ANY STRONG SHORTWAVES
EVIDENT...THESE SHOULD STAY FAIRLY ISOLATED. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE 3 TAF SITES NEXT 24H.
ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS ALONG WITH FREQUENT CG LTG FOR ALL THREE TAF SITES.
BEST CHANCES FOR TS WILL BE VCNTY KCOS 21Z-03Z. MORE EXTENSIVE TS IS
EXPECTED LATE FRI AFTERNOON. STORMS OVER THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FRI. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

44/31

000
FXUS65 KBOU 022046
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
245 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL SURGING NORTH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A COUPLE
OF SHORT WAVES OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH ARE PROJECTED
TO MOVE OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS
ALREADY BEGUN WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING KEEPING
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE ALREADY AROUND AND INCH AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE
MORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CURRENT CAPES VALUES OF 1200 TO 1600
J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES INCREASING OVER THE PLAINS AFTER 6
PM...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH INGREDIENTS
STILL LINING UP FOR A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE
ONLY LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THE FREEZING LEVEL ON THE SOUNDING IS
AT 16K FT. HOWEVER MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME COOLING ALOFT AROUND 00Z
THAT WILL HELP HAIL FORMATION. OTHERWISE...HEAVY RAIN COULD BE A
PROBLEM WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. STORM MOVEMENT WILL
BE 10 TO 20 MPH WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT FLOODING
PROBLEMS...BUT ANY TRAINING OF STORMS COULD CAUSE A LOCALIZED
CONCERN FOR FLOODING.  THE SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL NOT EXIT THE AREA
UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...HAVE KEPT POPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MORNING.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING NORTH FRIDAY TO KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE STATE...HOWEVER NOT AS STRONG AS THIS
EVENING AND THEREFORE KEPT POPS OVER THE PLAINS BELOW 35 PERCENT.
CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER BUT SHEAR VALUES DO NOT
LOOK ALL THE IMPRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM...SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS WEAK LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHT DRYING OCCUR.

ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECHARGE NICELY SATURDAY THOUGH WITH
MORNING SUNSHINE AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND.  THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...BUT AT THE
SAME TIME THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT BACKING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA WHICH COULD ENHANCE UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND
STORM COVERAGE IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE.  DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF
THIS COOLER SURGE...NORTHEAST CORNER COULD STABILIZE MORE WHICH
WOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS OUT THERE.  STILL MANY
QUESTIONS WITH REGARD TO ALL THE DETAILS BUT SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS
ARE WARRANTED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED FACTORS AND NICE THETA-E
RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

ON SUNDAY...FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY SO THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS AND PERHAPS INCREASE
THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WITH STRONGER SHEAR.  MEANWHILE...
INSTABILITY WITH CAPES RANGING FROM 800-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE PLAINS
EACH DAY WILL ALSO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTH OF STORMS.

THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY AND WARM SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY AS
RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THEN IT LOOKS
LIKE THE SERIOUS HEAT AND ONLY ISOLATED...AT MOST...AFTERNOON STORMS
WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
POPS UP ACROSS COLORADO.  HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS STILL HOLDS ON BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. GUSTY OUT FLOW
WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS UP TO 35 KNOTS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE AREA
SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...UP TO INCH HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS TO 50
KNOTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TOWARDS
12Z FRIDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTER 20Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$
KRIEDERMAN/BARJENBRUCH

000
FXUS65 KGJT 022035
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
234 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP ACROSS THE CWA AS DEEP MONSOONAL FLOW AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH MEAN FLOW.  NAM12 PW VALUES OF
OVER AN INCH BEING FORECAST OVER ERN UT AND AROUND AN INCH OVER CO.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FURTHER EWRD.  CURRENTLY...SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR CENTRAL WESTERN AREA OF RIO BLANCO COUNTY VALID TIL 4:30PM
THIS AFTN AS NEXRAD HIGHLIGHTING HIGH RATE OF RAINFALL OVER LAST HOUR
OR SO. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MORE ADVISORIES ISSUED
THIS AFTN ACROSS CWA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE DOWN LATER TONIGHT AS
SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY OVERCAST ACROSS THE AREA.

BROAD MONSOONAL STREAM CONTINUES PUMPING MOISTURE INTO AREA SATURDAY
WITH MODELS PICKING UP ON PRECIP LATE MORNING THRU MIDNIGHT.
APPEARS THAT 4TH OF JULY WILL BE WORST DAY FOR PRECIP AS HIGH
PRESSURE HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE WILL HAVE STRAIGHT
SHOT AT CO. EXPECT SOAKING-TYPE RAIN IN THE MORNING BECOMING MORE
CONVECTIVE AND SPOTTY IN NATURE TOWARDS EVENING HOURS.  THUS...
EVENING OF THE 4TH WILL BE DRY FOR SOME...WET FOR OTHERS...AS
SCATTERED NATURE OF STORMS WILL DICTATE WHO AND WHERE GETS WET.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
TRANSITIONS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SLIGHTLY AS
IT TRANSITIONS  OVERHEAD WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES TRACKING
THROUGH. KEPT THE HIGHER POPS OVER ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE EVENING ON SATURDAY. A PAC NORTHWEST LOW MOVES INLAND
HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL DECREASE. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE FIRST PAC LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ONLY SLIGHTLY SHIFTING THE RIDGE EAST. ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS
FARTHER SOUTH IN BEHIND THE FIRST FORCING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. CONTINUED THE FORECAST TREND AND
REDUCED POPS AS THE MODELS BRING A DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
TSTMS HAVE FIRED UP ACROSS AREA AS CLOUD SHIELD MOVES ACROSS CO IN
RESPONSE TO DEEP MOISTURE TO S.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR UNDER AND NEAR TSTMS THIS
AFTN AND EVENING.  HAIL NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN THOUGH GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 30 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD DROP CIGS QUITE RAPIDLY.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THRU SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

.CO...NONE.
.UT...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM...TR
LONG TERM....AS
AVIATION.....TR

000
FXUS65 KGJT 021029
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
429 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

MODELS WERE ON TRACK WITH SHIFT OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TOWARD THE
PANHANDLE REGION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
HAS ALLOWED DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...GOES DPI INDICATED PW VALUES NEAR
1 INCH MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO EARLY THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAD RISEN ON THE ORDER
OF 7 TO 12 DEG F IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.

DIURNAL HEATING WORKING ON INCREASED MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE INTO
INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
IN ADDITION...NAM INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT WHICH
WILL ENHANCE STORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH. MARGINAL LIFTED INDICES AND
CAPE IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FAVOR PULSE TYPE STORMS...HOWEVER
GIVEN LIGHT STEERING WINDS...EXPECT STRONGER CELLS WILL GENERATE
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM NORTHERN AZ NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WASATCH DURING
THE DAY WILL TURN EASTWARD TONIGHT PROVIDING LIFT FOR NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING
SLIGHTLY. PW VALUES INDICATED TO DIP AS DEEPEST SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
IS FORCED EAST OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER...AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH HEAVY RAIN A CONTINUED THREAT. IN THE ABSENCE OF
DYNAMIC LIFT....SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL LARGELY DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.

COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS
COMBINED WITH ADIABATIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS. INCREASED
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE OPPOSITE EFFECT ON LOWS WHICH WILL
BE RELATIVELY MILD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: A FLAT WEST TO EAST FLOW CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES STILL AROUND
0.7-0.8 INCH. WITH NO SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS EVIDENT...SCATTERED LATE-DAY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: THE FLOW AMPLIFIES AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...THEN COMES ONSHORE BY TUESDAY IN THE FASTER GFS.
THIS BRINGS A DRYING TREND...THOUGH THE GFS KEEPS DEEPER MOISTURE
OVER THE SOUTH. THE NORTH AND CENTRAL ZONES WILL BE AN INVERTED-V
ENVIRONMENT WITH STORMS PRODUCING MORE WIND THAN SHOWERS.
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 25KTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RISE ABOVE FLOWERS IN DEEP MIXING.

THIS DEEP TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE AND PRIMED FOR CONVECTION
THRU WED.  EUROPEAN...ON OTHER HAND...HAS LOW COMING ASHORE ACROSS
CANADIAN/WA BORDER MONDAY MORNING AND DROPPING A FRONT THRU
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY WED NIGHT. WHILE QUITE A DIFFERENT SOLN...ECMWF
ALSO HIGHLIGHTS AFTN CONVECTION SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY FOR CO.
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK SO MADE SLIGHT CHANGES TO AND DECREASED
TSTMS ACROSS AREA TUE AFTN ONWARDS.

&&

.AVIATION...

INCREASING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
...LINGERING OVERNIGHT. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ALONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30 MPH. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

.CO...NONE.
.UT...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM....JOE/TR
AVIATION.....NL

000
FXUS65 KPUB 020949
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
349 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...

(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION WAS FINALLY DYING OFF ACROSS THE NE CORNER OF
THE STATE...WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER FOR THE CWA. UPPER RIDGE OF
HIGH PRES WAS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH A STRONG PLUME OF
MOISTURE LAYING ACROSS AZ AND UP INTO THE GREAT BASIN. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA PUSHED THRU
EARLY THIS MORNING...PRODUCING BRISK GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...BUT
THEY ARE STARTING TO WEAKEN AS OF 330 AM AS WELL. DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE E PLAINS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...SO LLVL MOISTURE
CONTUINUES ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY SLIDES TO THE EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...POTENTIALLY OPENING THE DOOR FOR A GREATER INFLUX OF
MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS. MODELS NOW ARE INDICATING AN EVEN
SLOWER SOLUTION FOR THE SFC COLD FRONT...KEEPING THE FRONT TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HRS. THIS MEANS ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY FOR THE REGION...WITH EXPECTED MAX TEMPS TODAY WELL IN
THE 90S. MAX TEMPS MIGHT BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER TODAY AS COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY...GIVEN MORE OF AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR THE SFC WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS FOR PCPN POTENTIAL...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION FIRING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE
MORNING...THEN BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND SPREADING IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCE WILL BE THAT AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND THE MOISTURE PLUME INCREASES...THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
CONTDVD ALL NIGHT AND ADJUSTED GRIDS TO TRY AND SHOW THIS. SEVERE WX
PARAMETERS INDICATE SOME DECENT CAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTN...UP TO 1500 J/KG AROUND MIDDAY...BUT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS
PRETTY MINIMAL. MOORE

.LONG TERM...

(FRI-WED)

         ...O WHERE...O WHERE...WILL THE BOUNDARY BE...

WX THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL BE. SIMULATIONS SHOW THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE
TRAVERSING BETWEEN THE PALMER DIVIDE TO THE RATON MESA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IF THIS BOUNDARY IS TO THE SOUTH...THEN WE WILL SEE A
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP ON THE PLAINS (UPSLOPE SYNOPTICALLY DIRVEN
FLOW)...IF IT IS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE PALMER...THEN SURFACE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL BE LESS CONDUCIVE TO PRECIP
ON THE PLAINS.

FOR FRIDAY...SIMULATIONS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY
BE MORE TO THE NORTH...OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE DURING THIS DAY.
HOWEVER...A TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER THE PLAINS SO SFC FLOW OVER THIS
DAY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY FROM A ~SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. THIS IS
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP...SO I HAVE DECREASED POPS A BIT AND
WARMED UP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ON THIS DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER MCS SHOULD GET GOING UP IN NE CO AND THIS
SHOULD SEND THE BOUNDARY DOWN SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY
SATURDAY SIMULATIONS SHOW THE BOUNDARY MOVG NORTH ONCE AGAIN. BY
LATER SATURDAY...A MORE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE N PART OF THE CWA AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIF
CONVECTION TO GET GOING OVER THE THE PIKES PEAK REGION. FOR THIS
REASON I HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE HIGH SIDE...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.

SAT NIGHT...A SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN COOL FRONT SHOULD BLAST S OF THE
REGION AND WILL LIKELY BE WELL INTO NEW MEXICO BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH SCTD POPS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE MTNS/I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATER IN THE DAY.
IF THE SIMULATIONS ARE CORRECT...THEN WE MAY NEED TO TWEEK MAX
TEMPS DOWN A BIT FOR THIS DAY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...SW FLOW INCREASES ALOFT. THIS WILL FORCE THE
BOUNDARY WELL NORTH AND WE WILL START TO HEAT UP ONCE AGAIN. CHANCES
OF PRECIP WILL ALSO DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION. IF SIMULATINS
VERIFY...THEN WE WILL NEED TO BUMP UP TEMPS A BIT FROM CURRENT FCST
AND DECREASE POPS A BIT MORE.

GIVEN THE ABOVE DISCUSSION...THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
OVERALL...THE N PART OF THE CWA WILL HAVE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF
MOTHER NATURES FIREWORKS THEN THE S PART OF THE CWA. I ALSO WILL ADD
THAT SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SO SOME LOW END SVR WX WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND
THIS THREAT IS REFLECTED IN THE SPC DY2 AND DY3 PRODUCTS.
/HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE 3 TAF SITES NEXT 24H.
ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTN AND EVE COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS ALONG WITH FREQUENT CG LTG...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
VCNTY KCOS 21Z-03Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

27/34

000
FXUS65 KBOU 020907
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
307 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...A SHORT WAVE PASSED OVER THE RIDGE NUDGING IT SOUTH.
THIS ALSO PUSHED A COLD THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO LAST NIGHT.
MOISTURE HAS  INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TODAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
ABOVE AN INCH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 50S
ALL THE WAY TO THE FOOTHILLS. CAPES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 500 TO 1000
J/KG RANGE. MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE OVER THE UTAH-COLORADO BORDER
AROUND 00Z. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE AND EXIT ONTO THE
PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME DECENT QG LIFT AHEAD OF
THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. BECAUSE OF THE LIFT...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO ALL THIS...AN UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL ALSO AID IN PRODUCING STORMS. RAISED POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT
ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND 50-60 PERCENT THIS EVENING.
ALSO WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS BETTER TODAY
THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. SHEAR AND MOISTURE WILL BE IMPROVED AND
THE LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF
A FEW SEVERE STORMS. WILL LOWER POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT KEEP 20-30
PERCENT IN THE FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE PASSING OVER THE
STATE. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE CONCERN TOO BECAUSE OF THE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH WHICH
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT FLOODING PROBLEMS...BUT ANY TRAINING OF
STORMS COULD CAUSE A LOCALIZED CONCERN FOR FLOODING.

.LONG TERM...THE FLOW ALOFT FROM FRI INTO SAT WILL BE MAINLY
WESTERLY AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SRN ROCKIES.  BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW A FEW DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BOTH DAYS WITH TIMING A QUESTION MARK.  ONCE
SUCH FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRI MORNING WHICH COULD LIMIT
TSTM DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT FRI AFTN DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUBSIDENCE
OCCURS BEHIND THIS FEATURE.  HOWEVER ENOUGH INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCT TSTMS FRI
AFTN INTO FRI EVENING IN MOST AREAS.  ON SAT ANOTHER FEATURE IS
SHOWN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY AFTN OR EVENING SO TSTM COVERAGE
MAY END UP BEING HIGHER THAN ON FRI IF CURRENT TIMING IS CORRECT.
SHEAR PROFILE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SVR STORMS ALTHOUGH RATHER
WRM MID LEVEL TEMPS AND HIGH WET BULB ZEROS COULD KEEP LARGE HAIL
THREAT ON THE MARGINAL SIDE.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FCST TO
BE AROUND AN INCH BOTH DAYS SO STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS AS WELL.  AS FOR TEMPS LATEST NAM AND GFS
SHOW HIGHS ON FRI WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS DESPITE 850-700 MB TEMPS
DROPPING A FEW DEGREES FROM THU INTO FRI SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  BY SAT THERE IS A 6-8 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE IN HIGH TEMPS OVER NERN CO BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS AS THE
NAM SHOWS A FNT MOVING INTO NERN CO BY AFTN WHILE THE GFS SHOWS NO
SUCH FEATURE.  AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE CURRENT TEMP FCST ALONE AS
NOT SURE WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT.

BY SUN THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NWLY WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY AFFECTING NRN CO BY SUN AFTN.  WITH LINGERING MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE SCT TSTMS IN THE AFTN/EVENING
HOURS.  850-700 TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH ON SUN SO HIGHS SHOULD
BE NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN SAT.   FOR MON AND TUE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTHWARD WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
MORE SWLY.  GFS SHOWS SOME DECREASE IN MOISTURE SO TSTM CHANCES MAY
BEGIN TO DECREASE ALTHOUGH A LOT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE DECREASES OR NOT OVER THE AREA.  TEMPS MAY SLOWLY WARM BACK
TO THE 90 DEGREE LEVEL AS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE A FEW DEGREES EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. GUSTY OUT FLOW WINDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS UP TO 35 KNOTS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIME
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAIN...UP TO INCH HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS TO 50 KNOTS. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$
MEIER/RPK

000
FXUS65 KPUB 012141
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
341 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2009

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)

CURRENTLY 96 DEG AT KPUB...WITH HOT SPOT 99 DEG AT KLHX. SHOULD END
UP AS FORECAST...A COUPLE DEGREES SHY OF THE CENTURY MARK. DEWPTS HAVE
REALLY FALLEN OVR THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...NOW IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW 30S. ISOLD TS OVR THE MTS HAVE BEEN PRETTY WEAK AND WITH THE BL
DRYING OUT...DONT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP THIS EVE. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO ERN WY HAS THUS FAR NOT PROVIDED MUCH OF
A SPARK...AND SHOULD BE THRU THE AREA BY 03Z. HAVE TRIMMED BACK
POPS A BIT AND HAVE PRECIP ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. EXPECT GENERALLY
CLEARING CONDITIONS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW...ANTICIPATED FRONT LOOKS A BIT SLOW TO ARRIVE...WITH COOLING
ALOFT NOT REALLY KICKING IN UNTIL THU EVE. SO...WILL SEE ANOTHER WARM
DAY WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING MID TO EVEN UPPER 90S OVR THE
PLAINS. INCREASING UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO LLVL WINDS WILL HOLD DOWN
MAX TEMPS TO SOME EXTENT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION UNTIL THE EVE...SO DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE
LIMITED TO THE MTS AS UPSLOPE FLOW CONTRIBUTES TO SOME SCT TS
DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO SOME EXTENT...THO
THE 12Z GFS AND 18Z NAM SUGGEST THAT POPS MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED
BACK EVEN FURTHER. ROSE

.LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

...BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...

PATTERN STILL SHAPING UP TO SUPPORT INCREASE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  DETAILS ARE VARYING FROM RUN TO RUN...OF
COURSE.  BUT...THIS IS TO BE EXPECTED DURING SUMMER CONVECTIVE
WEATHER. BASIC PATTERN IS ONE OF BROAD...FLAT RIDGING CENTERED TO
THE SOUTH OF COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALLOWING MONSOON MOISTURE
AND WEAK DISTURBANCES TO COME OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND CLIP
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.  SHEARS AREN`T LOOK GREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT ARE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE (AND POTENTIALLY CAPES)
THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE.  H5 WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEST TO
NORTHWEST 20-30 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW...COULD SEE A FEW RIGHT MOVERS AFFECTING THE I-25
CORRIDOR.  AT THIS TIME...PRIMARY THREATS APPEAR TO BE LIGHTNING...
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...PEA SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS COULD BE IN THE SEVERE CATEGORY...PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR MORE AND HAIL TO AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.
IF SHEARS INCREASE JUST A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED...WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME DECENT SEVERE STORMS...WITH EVEN LARGER
HAIL AND GREATER DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

PRESENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TAKE A DOWN
TURN AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A DRIER...WARMER SOUTHWEST
FLOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  HOWEVER...THE EASTERN BORDER
AREAS COULD BE SUBJECT TO SOME DRYLINE ACTIVITY DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHICH COULD MEAN SOME SEVERE WEATHER OUT THAT WAY.
SO...WHILE AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS MAY TEND TO DRY OUT
AND HEAT UP...THE EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES MAY SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SEVERE STORMS.  AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD.  PLEASE STAY TUNED.
LW

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE 3 TAF SITES NEXT
24H. ALTHOUGH A TSRA IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVE...CHANCES REMAIN
VERY LOW. MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY CONVECTION WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VIRGA SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE VCNTY
KCOS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

44/50

000
FXUS65 KBOU 012057
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
257 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2009

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH
OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW. A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THIS EVENING
ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE RIDGE.
EXPECTING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM
YESTERDAY AS PW VALUES ARE 1-3 TENTHS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE CRITERIA
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
BEING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CAPES WILL BE UP TO 2K J/KG OVER
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO...WHILE ELSEWHERE CAPES WILL BE
AROUND 400-800 J/KG. THE FRONT THIS EVENING MAY HELP CONVECTION
PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER TONIGHT OVER THE PLAINS.

EXPECTING POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY INCREASING PW
VALUES FURTHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY
IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS AND FROM AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
TOMORROW. AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE UPPER HIGH ALONG WITH THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEATHER PATTERN WILL TURN MORE ACTIVE AGAIN FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH PREVAILING LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW...AND AT THE SAME TIME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS PLUME
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH
AND SPREADS ACROSS COLORADO.  THIS WILL INCREASE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INTO THE 1.0 TO 1.3 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS.  IN
ADDITION...MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND CAPES WILL ALSO BE INCREASING.
CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG DURING THE PEAK HEATING AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS SHOULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY
WHEN CONSIDERING 0-6 KM WIND SHEAR VECTOR OF 20 M/S.  THERE IS ALSO
SOME WEAK Q-G LIFT NOTED THURSDAY EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE NOW SEEN
IN THE BAJA REGION MOVES THIS WAY AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS...SO THIS
SHOULD PROMOTE HIGHER STORM COVERAGE AND HIGHER POPS ON THE PLAINS
THURSDAY EVENING.

AT THIS TIME...DONT SEE A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FOR SATURDAY ALTHOUGH
FLOW ALOFT MAY WEAKEN A BIT.  THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.  BY SUNDAY...THERE ARE A FEW
INDICATIONS THE PLAINS MAY STABILIZE A BIT...SO CUT BACK POPS IN THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE...OTHERWISE SHOULD STILL SEE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM COVERAGE.  BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
RIDGE IS ADVERTISED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AS DEEPER
EAST COAST AND WEST COAST TROUGHS DEVELOP.  THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
A RETURN OF DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
SLIGHT CHANCE STILL EXISTS FOR A THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 21Z AND
03Z...MAINLY NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. OUTFLOWS WINDS
FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT KDEN CAUSING ABRUPT WIND
DIRECTION CHANGES. A COUPLE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. UPSLOPE FLOW TOMORROW
WILL INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TOMORROW.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$
KRIEDERMAN/BARJENBRUCH