000
FXUS61 KBOX 051521
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1121 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY BRINGING DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THAT SHOULD LAST INTO MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AND
MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1120 AM UPDATE: LOWERS DEWPOINTS A BIT AND INCREASED GUSTS 3-4 MORE
KNOTS. SPRING ENVIRONMENT WHERE DEEP BL MIXING DRIES OUT DEWPOINTS
MORE THAN EXPECTED IN THE AFTN AND ALSO YIELDS HIGHER GUSTS THAN
MODELED.

MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WE USED A BLEND OF MOS VALUES
FOR THESE GRIDS. MWN WB AT 11 AM HAS RISEN TO 41F AND EXPECT LATE
AFTN MAX TEMP OF 81-83F. OKX 12Z SOUNDING HAS IT...OTHERS ARE A BIT
COOLER BUT SUBSIDENCE OCCURING SO AM FCSTG THE HIGHER VALUE...WHICH
IS ABOUT 1F PRIOR THAN THE 4AM KBOX FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
OVERALL THIS LOOKS LIKE A QUIET NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THIN CIRRUS. LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
STAYS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A SUPPORTING UPPER JET MAX SPANS THE
SPACE BETWEEN THE LOW AND NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD SUPPORT THE LIMITED
CIRRUS.

DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE RIDGE THIS PAST NIGHT
ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A FEW COLDER/DRIER SPOTS. LIGHT FLOW
UNDER THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT RADIATION TO SUPPORT MIN TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...NEAR 60 IN A FEW URBAN WARM SPOTS.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A -18C COLD POOL AT
500 MB. THESE FEATURES WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY...BUT LOOK TO
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST OF US TO ALLOW A FINE START TO THE DAY WITH
SUFFICIENT HEATING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE 10-12C AIR ALOFT...SO MAX
TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER COLD POOL
APPROACHES WILL LEAD TO DECREASING STABILITY BY THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST MASS AND SOUTHWEST NH. TOTAL TOTAL INDEX IS
FORECAST TO REACH 49 WITH LI BELOW ZERO. WE WILL MENTION A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THESE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES KEEPING A PREVAILING SPLIT FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS. OVERALL NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME FRAME.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS LOW PRESSURE AND
A COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL LOSE ITS FORWARD
PROGRESS AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

TUESDAY...THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT
COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DROP H5 TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -18 CELSIUS WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS ADVERTISING ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. THIS LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN COMBINED TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. HOWEVER ITS STILL A BIT
EARLY TO QUANTIFY ANY SEVERE RISK.

WEDNESDAY...THE COLD POOL LINGERS ON WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED THE MENTION
FOR LOW CHANCE POPS GIVEN DIURNAL LOW LEVEL DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREFERRED TO FOLLOW THE SLOWER UKMET/ECMWF
AND GGEM SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
USED A BLEND OF PREVIOUS OFFICIAL AND 18Z HPC GUIDANCE IN THE GRIDS
WITH SOME TWEAKS TO ACCOMPLISH THIS. GENERALLY DISCOUNTED THE 00Z
GFS. OVERALL EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ADVERTISED LOW CHANCE POPS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS GUSTING 23-29KTS TODAY ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY IFR.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND FOG
PATCHES AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY. VFR. SPOTTY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTN...SCA ISSUED FOR GUSTY W WINDS 24-29 KTS.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW AND LIGHT SEAS. NO HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY WITH
SHIFTING WINDS. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>236-250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS 1115A
NEAR TERM...WTB/DRAG 1115A
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...STRAUSS
AVIATION...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS 1115A
MARINE...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS 1115A

000
FXUS61 KALY 051442
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1042 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND BRING CLOUDS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WARMER WEATHER FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO FORECAST NEEDED...IF ANY. LOTS OF SUN...AND
GREAT MIXING. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A LITTLE
COOL...BUT WITH THE MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD GET CLOSE IF
NOT REACH CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPERATURES. WIDNS WILL BE A LITTLE
GUSTY IN SOME PLACES...BUT OVERALL...JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
FORECAST IF ANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL IMPACT THE
REGION AS IT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD OF FA MONDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS CLOSER TO LOW CENTER. HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS BEST LIS
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE BETWEEN 18Z MON AND 00Z TUESDAY AND
SB CAPES GENERALLY 400-1000 J/KG OFF NAM WITH A FEW POCKETS OVER
1500 J/KG. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT
OF HAIL...BUT WITH WBZ HEIGHTS MORE LIKE APRIL THAN JULY WITH A
RANGE OF 6 TO 9 KFT ACROSS FA AT 00Z TUESDAY WOULD EXPECT MOST OF
HAIL TO BE SMALL. BEING THAT WE ARE NOW A DAY CLOSER IN TIME HAVE
ADDED SMALL HAIL TO PUT ENHANCED WORDING IN GRIDS BUT WILL MAKE
MENTION IN HWO OF SMALL HAIL THREAT. H8 WINDS VERY LIGHT 5 TO 15
KTS...H5 WINDS ONLY 25-35 KTS AND 300 MB JET SE OF FA LEAVING FA
IN WRONG QUAD (LR) OF EXITING JET...THUS NOT EXPECTING A WIND
THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ON LATER MONDAY
NIGHT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO RANGE FROM LOW 70S NORTHWEST TO LOW
80S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

ON TUESDAY EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
AS SURFACE TROF SWINGS THROUGH FA AND UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY MAYBE MORE CONFINED TO
EASTERN HALF OF FA. ONCE AGAIN HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN...BUT WILL
ONLY INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO AS THIS IS DAY 3. H5 TEMPS ARE STILL
VERY COLD TUE AFT -15 TO -19 C. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUE TO BE COOLER
THAN MONDAY AS MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED IN ADDITION TO CAA. HIGHS
TUE ONLY IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT MID HUDSON
VALLEY TO LITCHFIELD HILLS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. PCPN WILL
TAPER OFF TUE EVENING WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT. LOWS
TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500 HPA CUTOFF LOW...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...MAKING WAY FOR
HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS SHOULD
DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THURSDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS 75 TO 80. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY MAKING WAY FOR A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...AND AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARM AND PLEASANT...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...AND HIGHS UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. SOMEWHAT COOLER
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWS IN THE 50S. AT THIS POINT...SATURDAY LOOKS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...THE EURO FEATURES A VORTICITY MAX MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY...WHILE THE GFS FEATURES A
CUTOFF LOW. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE LOW...AND THE BEST SHOT
IS A CHANCE POP.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE WAS SOME RADIATION FOG AT KGFL LAST NIGHT WHICH HAS SINCE
MIXED OUT WITH THE COMBINATION OF EARLY MORNING SUNSHINE AND
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. THERE WAS AN AREA OF CLOUDS EAST OF
ALBANY THAT COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN VERMONT. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
AND DIMINISH SOME IN AREA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY...JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU POPPING UP
AS A RESULT OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE IN THE MORNING AND
DISSIPATING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS TODAY
WILL BE WESTERLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE AND
WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKC OVER MOST OF THE AREA
AND SCT250 SOUTH OF ALBANY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN PM...VFR...NO WX.
MON/TUE...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF MVFR/IFR -SHRA/-TSRA...ESPECIALLY PM.
WED/THU...VFR...PSBL EARLY AM MVFR/IFR FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 45 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 35 TO
60 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 MPH OR LESS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LINGERING SHOWERS FINALLY ENDED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING
AND THE WEATHER WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY TODAY...WHICH WILL LET
THE GROUND DRY OUT SOME. ANOTHER LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KICK
OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE
GROUND SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DRY ENOUGH THAT FLOODING SHOULD NOT
BE A CONCERN AS IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER...LOCAL RESEARCH DOES POINT TOWARD
SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF WARM AND SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NAS

000
FXUS61 KOKX 051350
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
950 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO TODAY WILL DIG INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK E ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WITHOUT PHASING...WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF
NYC/LONG ISLAND TONIGHT...KEEPING THE REGION DRY.

DRY DAY TODAY WITH PARTY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SOME CU. BACKING
FLOW AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH OF REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
INTERIOR...MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST LOOK FINE BASED ON
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND SOUNDINGS.

JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT FOR FAR OUTLYING AREAS WITH WEAK GRADIENT...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO DROP WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S. 60S IN URBAN CENTERS AND
SURROUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO JUST SLOWLY SLIDES SE INTO NORTHERN
NY/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND THRU TUESDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND IT THROUGH THE REGION.

BEST COLD POOL INSTABILITY WILL BE WELL NW OF THE REGION ON
MON...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD HELP TO SET OFF
SOME LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWER/TSRA ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS
INTERIOR NW ZONES. MOISTURE AND THEREFORE SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL
BE LIMITED SO ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND WEAK.

INCREASED COLD POOL INSTABILITY...AN APPROACHING UPPER JET STREAK
AND A SURFACE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING FOR SOME
MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AREAWIDE TUES AFT INTO
TUES EVE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO REACH STRONG LEVELS. BASED ON FREEZING
LEVELS AND INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE
MAIN THREATS IN STRONGER CONVECTION.

WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT BOTH
DAYS.

HIGHS ON MON AND TUE WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF NEAR SEASONABLE...LOWER
80S CITY/INTERIOR AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING US LOWER-END POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER
TROF. DRY WEATHER THEREFORE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM...MORE NOTICEABLY ON FRIDAY WITH A
SW FLOW. SATURDAY SHOULD FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
WELL...BUT PROBABLY MITIGATED TO A DEGREE BY CLOUD COVER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. BETTER CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZES TODAY AT COASTAL AIRPORTS...
THOUGH WITH W-NW FLOW IN PLACE INITIALLY IT MAY TAKE A COUPLE OF
HOURS LONGER THAN USUAL TO TRANSITION TO TYPICAL SEA BREEZE
DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON MON...THEN A
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE TUE-WED...VIA DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
APPROACH. VFR THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONLY SYSTEM OF IMPORTANCE IS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON TUE...
WHICH COULD PRODUCE TSTMS AND ALSO BUILD OCEAN SEAS OUT EAST CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA VIA INCREASING S-SW FLOW. WAVEWATCH FORECAST SEAS OF
5 FT AT THAT TIME ARE A BIT HIGH GIVEN FORECAST WIND SPEEDS AROUND
15 KT...AND CLIPPED MAX SEAS AT 4 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AFTERNOON CONVECTION STARTING ON MON...AND MORE SO TUES COULD
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LIMITED
BASED ON PWATS AND SYNOPTIC SETUP.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV/PW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG
HYDROLOGY...NV

000
FXUS61 KBOX 051246
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
846 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THAT SHOULD LAST INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AND MOVES OVER
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
840 AM PRODUCT PUBLIC/MARINE/FWX UPDATE BASICALLY CENTERS ON HIGHER
GUSTS BY 5 KNOTS AT BOS AND ORH TODAY. ALREADY 20-22KTS AT BOS ORH.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO VIRGINIA.
THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY SUPPORTED BY WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT. FULL SUN SHOULD MIX 10-12C AIR AT 850 MB...WHICH WILL SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WE USED A BLEND OF MOS
VALUES FOR THESE GRIDS.

WINDS AT 850 MB WERE 30 KNOTS AT ALY LAST NIGHT AND ARE FORECAST
20-25 KNOTS THIS MORNING PER THE ECMWF. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY...INDEED THE ECMWF FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING SHOWS 15
KNOTS ALOFT. WITH FULL MIXING WE WILL EXPECT GUSTS OF 15-20
KNOTS...ROUGHLY 20 MPH...BUT WITH DIMINISHING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
OVERALL THIS LOOKS LIKE A QUIET NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THIN CIRRUS. LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
STAYS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A SUPPORTING UPPER JET MAX SPANS THE
SPACE BETWEEN THE LOW AND NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD SUPPORT THE LIMITED
CIRRUS.

DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE RIDGE THIS PAST NIGHT
ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A FEW COLDER/DRIER SPOTS. LIGHT FLOW
UNDER THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT RADIATION TO SUPPORT MIN TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...NEAR 60 IN A FEW URBAN WARM SPOTS.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A -18C COLD POOL AT
500 MB. THESE FEATURES WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY...BUT LOOK TO
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST OF US TO ALLOW A FINE START TO THE DAY WITH
SUFFICIENT HEATING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE 10-12C AIR ALOFT...SO MAX
TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER COLD POOL
APPROACHES WILL LEAD TO DECREASING STABILITY BY THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST MASS AND SOUTHWEST NH. TOTAL TOTAL INDEX IS
FORECAST TO REACH 49 WITH LI BELOW ZERO. WE WILL MENTION A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THESE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES KEEPING A PREVAILING SPLIT FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS. OVERALL NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME FRAME.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS LOW PRESSURE AND
A COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL LOSE ITS FORWARD
PROGRESS AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

TUESDAY...THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT
COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DROP H5 TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -18 CELSIUS WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS ADVERTISING ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. THIS LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN COMBINED TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. HOWEVER ITS STILL A BIT
EARLY TO QUANTIFY ANY SEVERE RISK.

WEDNESDAY...THE COLD POOL LINGERS ON WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED THE MENTION
FOR LOW CHANCE POPS GIVEN DIURNAL LOW LEVEL DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREFERRED TO FOLLOW THE SLOWER UKMET/ECMWF
AND GGEM SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
USED A BLEND OF PREVIOUS OFFICIAL AND 18Z HPC GUIDANCE IN THE GRIDS
WITH SOME TWEAKS TO ACCOMPLISH THIS. GENERALLY DISCOUNTED THE 00Z
GFS. OVERALL EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ADVERTISED LOW CHANCE POPS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH
PATCHY IFR.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND FOG
PATCHES AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY. VFR. SPOTTY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS OVER LAND DURING THE DAY...AND SOME
OF THIS MAY WORK INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE THRESHOLD. NO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW AND LIGHT SEAS.  NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY WITH
SHIFTING WINDS. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...WTB/DRAG 845A
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...STRAUSS
AVIATION...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS
MARINE...WTB/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KALY 051110
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
TODAY AND BRING SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND BRING CLOUDS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WARMER
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST DRY DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA IN MANY
DAYS. AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND CRESTS ACROSS
FA. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80 WITH
GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE DURING THE
DAY...CAPES VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT AND H10-H8 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
EITHER VERY WEAK OR LACKING ALL TOGETHER. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT
DRY WEATHER TO HOLD THROUGH 12Z AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF NEW
ENGLAND COAST. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL IMPACT THE
REGION AS IT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD OF FA MONDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS CLOSER TO LOW CENTER. HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS BEST LIS
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE BETWEEN 18Z MON AND 00Z TUESDAY AND
SB CAPES GENERALLY 400-1000 J/KG OFF NAM WITH A FEW POCKETS OVER
1500 J/KG. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT
OF HAIL...BUT WITH WBZ HEIGHTS MORE LIKE APRIL THAN JULY WITH A
RANGE OF 6 TO 9 KFT ACROSS FA AT 00Z TUESDAY WOULD EXPECT MOST OF
HAIL TO BE SMALL. BEING THAT WE ARE NOW A DAY CLOSER IN TIME HAVE
ADDED SMALL HAIL TO PUT ENHANCED WORDING IN GRIDS BUT WILL MAKE
MENTION IN HWO OF SMALL HAIL THREAT. H8 WINDS VERY LIGHT 5 TO 15
KTS...H5 WINDS ONLY 25-35 KTS AND 300 MB JET SE OF FA LEAVING FA
IN WRONG QUAD (LR) OF EXITING JET...THUS NOT EXPECTING A WIND
THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ON LATER MONDAY
NIGHT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO RANGE FROM LOW 70S NORTHWEST TO LOW
80S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

ON TUESDAY EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
AS SURFACE TROF SWINGS THROUGH FA AND UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY MAYBE MORE CONFINED TO
EASTERN HALF OF FA. ONCE AGAIN HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN...BUT WILL
ONLY INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO AS THIS IS DAY 3. H5 TEMPS ARE STILL
VERY COLD TUE AFT -15 TO -19 C. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUE TO BE COOLER
THAN MONDAY AS MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED IN ADDITION TO CAA. HIGHS
TUE ONLY IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT MID HUDSON
VALLEY TO LITCHFIELD HILLS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. PCPN WILL
TAPER OFF TUE EVENING WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT. LOWS
TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500 HPA CUTOFF LOW...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...MAKING WAY FOR
HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS SHOULD
DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THURSDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS 75 TO 80. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY MAKING WAY FOR A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...AND AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARM AND PLEASANT...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...AND HIGHS UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. SOMEWHAT COOLER
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWS IN THE 50S. AT THIS POINT...SATURDAY LOOKS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...THE EURO FEATURES A VORTICITY MAX MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY...WHILE THE GFS FEATURES A
CUTOFF LOW. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE LOW...AND THE BEST SHOT
IS A CHANCE POP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE WAS SOME RADIATION FOG AT KGFL LAST NIGHT WHICH HAS SINCE
MIXED OUT WITH THE COMBINATION OF EARLY MORNING SUNSHINE AND
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. THERE WAS AN AREA OF CLOUDS EAST OF
ALBANY THAT COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN VERMONT. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
AND DIMINISH SOME IN AREA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY...JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU POPPING UP
AS A RESULT OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE IN THE MORNING AND
DISSIPATING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS TODAY
WILL BE WESTERLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE AND
WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKC OVER MOST OF THE AREA
AND SCT250 SOUTH OF ALBANY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN PM...VFR...NO WX.
MON/TUE...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF MVFR/IFR -SHRA/-TSRA...ESPECIALLY PM.
WED/THU...VFR...PSBL EARLY AM MVFR/IFR FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 45 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 35 TO
60 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 MPH OR LESS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LINGERING SHOWERS FINALLY ENDED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING
AND THE WEATHER WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY TODAY...WHICH WILL LET
THE GROUND DRY OUT SOME. ANOTHER LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KICK
OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE
GROUND SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DRY ENOUGH THAT FLOODING SHOULD NOT
BE A CONCERN AS IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER...LOCAL RESEARCH DOES POINT TOWARD
SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF WARM AND SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCK
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KALY 051053
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
TODAY AND BRING SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND BRING CLOUDS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WARMER
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST DRY DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA IN MANY DAYS.
AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND CRESTS ACROSS FA.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80 WITH
GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE DURING THE
DAY...CAPES VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT AND H10-H8 MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE EITHER VERY WEAK OR LACKING ALL TOGETHER. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO HOLD THROUGH 12Z AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL IMPACT THE
REGION AS IT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD OF FA MONDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS CLOSER TO LOW CENTER. HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS BEST LIS
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE BETWEEN 18Z MON AND 00Z TUESDAY AND
SB CAPES GENERALLY 400-1000 J/KG OFF NAM WITH A FEW POCKETS OVER
1500 J/KG. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT
OF HAIL...BUT WITH WBZ HEIGHTS MORE LIKE APRIL THAN JULY WITH A
RANGE OF 6 TO 9 KFT ACROSS FA AT 00Z TUESDAY WOULD EXPECT MOST OF
HAIL TO BE SMALL. BEING THAT WE ARE NOW A DAY CLOSER IN TIME HAVE
ADDED SMALL HAIL TO PUT ENHANCED WORDING IN GRIDS BUT WILL MAKE
MENTION IN HWO OF SMALL HAIL THREAT. H8 WINDS VERY LIGHT 5 TO 15
KTS...H5 WINDS ONLY 25-35 KTS AND 300 MB JET SE OF FA LEAVING FA
IN WRONG QUAD (LR) OF EXITING JET...THUS NOT EXPECTING A WIND
THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ON LATER MONDAY
NIGHT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO RANGE FROM LOW 70S NORTHWEST TO LOW
80S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

ON TUESDAY EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
AS SURFACE TROF SWINGS THROUGH FA AND UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY MAYBE MORE CONFINED TO
EASTERN HALF OF FA. ONCE AGAIN HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN...BUT WILL
ONLY INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO AS THIS IS DAY 3. H5 TEMPS ARE STILL
VERY COLD TUE AFT -15 TO -19 C. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUE TO BE COOLER
THAN MONDAY AS MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED IN ADDITION TO CAA. HIGHS
TUE ONLY IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT MID HUDSON
VALLEY TO LITCHFIELD HILLS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. PCPN WILL
TAPER OFF TUE EVENING WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT. LOWS
TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500 HPA CUTOFF LOW...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...MAKING WAY FOR
HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS SHOULD
DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THURSDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS 75 TO 80. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY MAKING WAY FOR A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...AND AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARM AND PLEASANT...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...AND HIGHS UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. SOMEWHAT COOLER
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWS IN THE 50S. AT THIS POINT...SATURDAY LOOKS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...THE EURO FEATURES A VORTICITY MAX MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY...WHILE THE GFS FEATURES A
CUTOFF LOW. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE LOW...AND THE BEST SHOT
IS A CHANCE POP.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE WAS SOME RADIATION FOG AT KGFL LAST NIGHT WHICH HAS SINCE
MIXED OUT WITH THE COMBINATION OF EARLY MORNING SUNSHINE AND
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. THERE WAS AN AREA OF CLOUDS EAST OF
ALBANY THAT COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN VERMONT. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
AND DIMINISH SOME IN AREA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY...JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU POPPING UP
AS A RESULT OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE IN THE MORNING AND
DISSIPATING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS TODAY
WILL BE WESTERLY 5 TO 15 KNOTS. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE AND
WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...WITH SKC OVER MOST OF THE AREA
AND SCT250 SOUTH OF ALBANY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN PM...VFR...NO WX.
MON/TUE...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF MVFR/IFR -SHRA/-TSRA...ESPECIALLY PM.
WED/THU...VFR...PSBL EARLY AM MVFR/IFR FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 45 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...RECOVER
TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 35 TO 60 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 MPH OR LESS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LINGERING SHOWERS FINALLY ENDED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING
AND THE WEATHER WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY TODAY...WHICH WILL LET
THE GROUND DRY OUT SOME. ANOTHER LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KICK
OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE
GROUND SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DRY ENOUGH THAT FLOODING SHOULD NOT
BE A CONCERN AS IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER...LOCAL RESEARCH DOES POINT TOWARD
SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF WARM AND SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCK
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KALY 050926
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
526 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
TODAY AND BRING SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND BRING CLOUDS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WARMER
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST DRY DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA IN MANY DAYS.
AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND CRESTS ACROSS FA.
HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80 WITH
GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE DURING THE
DAY...CAPES VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT AND H10-H8 MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE EITHER VERY WEAK OR LACKING ALL TOGETHER. FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO HOLD THROUGH 12Z AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL IMPACT THE
REGION AS IT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD OF FA MONDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS CLOSER TO LOW CENTER. HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS BEST LIS
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE BETWEEN 18Z MON AND 00Z TUESDAY AND
SB CAPES GENERALLY 400-1000 J/KG OFF NAM WITH A FEW POCKETS OVER
1500 J/KG. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT
OF HAIL...BUT WITH WBZ HEIGHTS MORE LIKE APRIL THAN JULY WITH A
RANGE OF 6 TO 9 KFT ACROSS FA AT 00Z TUESDAY WOULD EXPECT MOST OF
HAIL TO BE SMALL. BEING THAT WE ARE NOW A DAY CLOSER IN TIME HAVE
ADDED SMALL HAIL TO PUT ENHANCED WORDING IN GRIDS BUT WILL MAKE
MENTION IN HWO OF SMALL HAIL THREAT. H8 WINDS VERY LIGHT 5 TO 15
KTS...H5 WINDS ONLY 25-35 KTS AND 300 MB JET SE OF FA LEAVING FA
IN WRONG QUAD (LR) OF EXITING JET...THUS NOT EXPECTING A WIND
THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ON LATER MONDAY
NIGHT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO RANGE FROM LOW 70S NORTHWEST TO LOW
80S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

ON TUESDAY EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
AS SURFACE TROF SWINGS THROUGH FA AND UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY MAYBE MORE CONFINED TO
EASTERN HALF OF FA. ONCE AGAIN HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN...BUT WILL
ONLY INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO AS THIS IS DAY 3. H5 TEMPS ARE STILL
VERY COLD TUE AFT -15 TO -19 C. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUE TO BE COOLER
THAN MONDAY AS MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED IN ADDITION TO CAA. HIGHS
TUE ONLY IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT MID HUDSON
VALLEY TO LITCHFIELD HILLS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. PCPN WILL
TAPER OFF TUE EVENING WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT. LOWS
TUE NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 500 HPA CUTOFF LOW...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...MAKING WAY FOR
HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS SHOULD
DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THURSDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS 75 TO 80. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY MAKING WAY FOR A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...AND AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WARM AND PLEASANT...WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...AND HIGHS UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. SOMEWHAT COOLER
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWS IN THE 50S. AT THIS POINT...SATURDAY LOOKS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...THE EURO FEATURES A VORTICITY MAX MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY...WHILE THE GFS FEATURES A
CUTOFF LOW. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE LOW...AND THE BEST SHOT
IS A CHANCE POP.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME RADIATION FOG ISSUES HAVE MATERIALIZED IN THE PREDAWN HOURS
WITH THE VISIBILITY AT KGFL WAVERING BETWEEN 1 AND 4 MILES IN
FOG. THAT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 12Z. KPOU IS ALSO
A BIT COMPLICATED...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT WERE THE SAME
AT 08Z BUT VISIBILITY WAS STILL 10 MILES. SATELLITE IMAGES AND NEARBY
AUGMENTED ASOS OBS INDICATE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE OVER THE AREA
AT LEAST PART OF THE NIGHT. WE HAVE THEREFORE FORECAST MVFR BETWEEN
THE HOURS OF 08Z AND AROUND SUNRISE. A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND SHOULD
KEEP KALB VFR THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS. ANY FOG/MIST SHOULD BURN
OFF AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE WITH A BEAUTIFUL DAY FOR VFR FLIGHT
AND PHOTOGRAPHY. WE HAVE FORECAST FEW050 TO REFLECT SOME FAIR WX CU
WHICH ARE LIKELY TO POP UP MIDDAY. WINDS TODAY WILL BE WESTERLY 5 TO
15 KNOTS. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SKC OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND SCT250 SOUTH OF ALBANY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN PM...VFR...NO WX.
MON/TUE...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF MVFR/IFR -SHRA/-TSRA...ESPECIALLY PM.
WED/THU...VFR...PSBL EARLY AM MVFR/IFR FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 30 TO 45 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...RECOVER
TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 35 TO 60 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 MPH OR LESS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LINGERING SHOWERS FINALLY ENDED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING
AND THE WEATHER WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY TODAY...WHICH WILL LET
THE GROUND DRY OUT SOME. ANOTHER LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KICK
OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE
GROUND SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DRY ENOUGH THAT FLOODING SHOULD NOT
BE A CONCERN AS IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER...LOCAL RESEARCH DOES POINT TOWARD
SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF WARM AND SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH
A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCK
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KBOX 050816
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
416 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THAT SHOULD LAST INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AND MOVES OVER
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO VIRGINIA.
THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY SUPPORTED BY WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT. FULL SUN SHOULD MIX 10-12C AIR AT 850 MB...WHICH WILL SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WE USED A BLEND OF MOS
VALUES FOR THESE GRIDS.

WINDS AT 850 MB WERE 30 KNOTS AT ALY LAST NIGHT AND ARE FORECAST
20-25 KNOTS THIS MORNING PER THE ECMWF. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY...INDEED THE ECMWF FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING SHOWS 15
KNOTS ALOFT. WITH FULL MIXING WE WILL EXPECT GUSTS OF 15-20
KNOTS...ROUGHLY 20 MPH...BUT WITH DIMINISHING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
OVERALL THIS LOOKS LIKE A QUIET NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THIN CIRRUS. LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
STAYS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A SUPPORTING UPPER JET MAX SPANS THE
SPACE BETWEEN THE LOW AND NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD SUPPORT THE LIMITED
CIRRUS.

DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE RIDGE THIS PAST NIGHT
ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A FEW COLDER/DRIER SPOTS. LIGHT FLOW
UNDER THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT RADIATION TO SUPPORT MIN TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...NEAR 60 IN A FEW URBAN WARM SPOTS.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A -18C COLD POOL AT
500 MB. THESE FEATURES WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY...BUT LOOK TO
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST OF US TO ALLOW A FINE START TO THE DAY WITH
SUFFICIENT HEATING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE 10-12C AIR ALOFT...SO MAX
TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER COLD POOL
APPROACHES WILL LEAD TO DECREASING STABILITY BY THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST MASS AND SOUTHWEST NH. TOTAL TOTAL INDEX IS
FORECAST TO REACH 49 WITH LI BELOW ZERO. WE WILL MENTION A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THESE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES KEEPING A PREVAILING SPLIT FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS. OVERALL NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME FRAME.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS LOW PRESSURE AND
A COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL LOSE ITS FORWARD
PROGRESS AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

TUESDAY...THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT
COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DROP H5 TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -18 CELSIUS WITH THE OPERATIONAL
GFS ADVERTISING ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. THIS LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN COMBINED TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. HOWEVER ITS STILL A BIT
EARLY TO QUANTIFY ANY SEVERE RISK.

WEDNESDAY...THE COLD POOL LINGERS ON WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED THE MENTION
FOR LOW CHANCE POPS GIVEN DIURNAL LOW LEVEL DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PREFERRED TO FOLLOW THE SLOWER UKMET/ECMWF
AND GGEM SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
USED A BLEND OF PREVIOUS OFFICIAL AND 18Z HPC GUIDANCE IN THE GRIDS
WITH SOME TWEAKS TO ACCOMPLISH THIS. GENERALLY DISCOUNTED THE 00Z
GFS. OVERALL EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ADVERTISED LOW CHANCE POPS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH
PATCHY IFR.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND FOG
PATCHES AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY. VFR. SPOTTY MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS OVER LAND DURING THE DAY...AND SOME
OF THIS MAY WORK INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE THRESHOLD. NO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW AND LIGHT SEAS.  NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY WITH
SHIFTING WINDS. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...STRAUSS
AVIATION...WTB/STRAUSS
MARINE...WTB/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 050745
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
345 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THAT SHOULD LAST INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AND MOVES OVER
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO VIRGINIA.
THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY SUPPORTED BY WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT. FULL SUN SHOULD MIX 10-12C AIR AT 850 MB...WHICH WILL SUPPORT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WE USED A BLEND OF MOS
VALUES FOR THESE GRIDS.

WINDS AT 850 MB WERE 30 KNOTS AT ALY LAST NIGHT AND ARE FORECAST
20-25 KNOTS THIS MORNING PER THE ECMWF. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE DAY...INDEED THE ECMWF FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING SHOWS 15
KNOTS ALOFT. WITH FULL MIXING WE WILL EXPECT GUSTS OF 15-20
KNOTS...ROUGHLY 20 MPH...BUT WITH DIMINISHING POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
OVERALL THIS LOOKS LIKE A QUIET NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THIN CIRRUS. LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
STAYS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A SUPPORTING UPPER JET MAX SPANS THE
SPACE BETWEEN THE LOW AND NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD SUPPORT THE LIMITED
CIRRUS.

DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM IN THE AREA COVERED BY THE RIDGE THIS PAST NIGHT
ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A FEW COLDER/DRIER SPOTS. LIGHT FLOW
UNDER THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT RADIATION TO SUPPORT MIN TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S...NEAR 60 IN A FEW URBAN WARM SPOTS.

LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND A -18C COLD POOL AT
500 MB. THESE FEATURES WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY...BUT LOOK TO
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST OF US TO ALLOW A FINE START TO THE DAY WITH
SUFFICIENT HEATING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE 10-12C AIR ALOFT...SO MAX
TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER COLD POOL
APPROACHES WILL LEAD TO DECREASING STABILITY BY THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST MASS AND SOUTHWEST NH. TOTAL TOTAL INDEX IS
FORECAST TO REACH 49 WITH LI BELOW ZERO. WE WILL MENTION A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THESE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TUESDAY...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ON TUE. MAY
SEE SOME AFTERNOON STORMS WHERE POCKETS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOP. SMALL
HAIL A POSSIBILITY. PLAYED DAYTIME MAX TEMPS A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SEASONAL LEVELS. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IN LATER FORECAST. NOT
THINKING WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT THERE COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND.

STINGY UPPER TROF HANGS AROUND ON WED. MAY HAVE TO GO WITH HIGHER
POPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT DON/T WANT TO GO TOO OVERBOARD AT
THIS TIME. TROF COULD BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE...POSSIBLY OFFERING
SUNNIER SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. WE NOTE THAT 12Z ECMWF IS RATHER WET
HOWEVER.

MODELS AGREE THAT WARMER WEATHER COULD BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER...NO CONFIDENT AT ALL ON ANYTHING
HOT. GFS IS PROBABLY TOO FAST WITH COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEK...PREFER ECMWF TIMING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH
PATCHY IFR.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTN ...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN WED AFTN. EARLY MORNING
FOG MAY LIMIT VSBYS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS OVER LAND DURING THE DAY...AND SOME
OF THIS MAY WORK INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE THRESHOLD. NO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW AND LIGHT SEAS.  NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE TIMES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PROVIDE FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE...PERHAPS
TUE AND WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...STRAUSS
AVIATION...WTB/STRAUSS
MARINE...WTB/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KOKX 050730
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
330 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO TODAY WILL DIG INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK E ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND THEN
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WITHOUT PHASING...WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF
NYC/LONG ISLAND TONIGHT...KEEPING THE REGION DRY.

DRY DAY TODAY WITH PARTY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND AFT CU. BACKING FLOW AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH OF
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S INTERIOR...MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT FOR FAR OUTLYING AREAS WITH WEAK GRADIENT...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO DROP WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S. 60S IN URBAN CENTERS AND
SURROUNDINGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO JUST SLOWLY SLIDES SE INTO NORTHERN
NY/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND THRU TUESDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND IT THROUGH THE REGION.

BEST COLD POOL INSTABILITY WILL BE WELL NW OF THE REGION ON
MON...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD HELP TO SET OFF
SOME LATE AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWER/TSRA ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS
INTERIOR NW ZONES. MOISTURE AND THEREFORE SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL
BE LIMITED SO ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND WEAK.

INCREASED COLD POOL INSTABILITY...AN APPROACHING UPPER JET STREAK
AND A SURFACE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING FOR SOME
MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AREAWIDE TUES AFT INTO
TUES EVE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO REACH STRONG LEVELS. BASED ON FREEZING
LEVELS AND INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE
MAIN THREATS IN STRONGER CONVECTION.

WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT BOTH
DAYS.

HIGHS ON MON AND TUE WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF NEAR SEASONABLE...LOWER
80S CITY/INTERIOR AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING US LOWER-END POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER
TROF. DRY WEATHER THEREFORE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM...MORE NOTICEABLY ON FRIDAY WITH A
SW FLOW. SATURDAY SHOULD FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
WELL...BUT PROBABLY MITIGATED TO A DEGREE BY CLOUD COVER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. BETTER CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZES TODAY AT COASTAL AIRPORTS...
THOUGH WITH W-NW FLOW IN PLACE INITIALLY IT MAY TAKE A COUPLE OF
HOURS LONGER THAN USUAL TO TRANSITION TO TYPICAL SEA BREEZE
DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON MON...THEN A
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE TUE-WED...VIA DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
APPROACH. VFR THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONLY SYSTEM OF IMPORTANCE IS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON TUE...
WHICH COULD PRODUCE TSTMS AND ALSO BUILD OCEAN SEAS OUT EAST CLOSE
TO SCA CRITERIA VIA INCREASING S-SW FLOW. WAVEWATCH FORECAST SEAS OF
5 FT AT THAT TIME ARE A BIT HIGH GIVEN FORECAST WIND SPEEDS AROUND
15 KT...AND CLIPPED MAX SEAS AT 4 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AFTERNOON CONVECTION STARTING ON MON...AND MORE SO TUES COULD
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LIMITED
BASED ON PWATS AND SYNOPTIC SETUP.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG
HYDROLOGY...NV

000
FXUS61 KALY 050608
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
TODAY AND BRING SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND BRING CLOUDS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WARMER
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS THAT COVERED
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING HAVE MOVED EAST. AN
AREA OF CLOUDS JUST EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER NORTH OF ALBANY
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE MID HUDSON REGION OF
NEW YORK AND WESTERN CONNECTICUT. OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY RADIATION FOG TOWARD
DAYBREAK. WINDS WERE MOSTLY LIGHT FROM THE WEST OR CALM.
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOW 50S
LOOK GOOD.

TODAY SHOULD BE BY FAR THE BEST DAY WEATHERWISE OF THE JULY
FOURTH HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND MIDDAY
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 EXCEPT OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE LOW AND MID 70S.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH...PERHAPS A
BIT STRONGER ACROSS NORTH/SOUTH RIDGES OR WHERE THE TERRAIN
HAS A FUNNELING EFFECT. A SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL
PROBABLY SPREAD SOME CIRRUS INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF
KINGSTON AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN SOME FAIR WEATHER
CU IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...A PLEASANT SUMMER DAY FOR
THAT PICNIC OR COOKOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE
APPROACH OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE CWA /GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES TODAY/. THEN THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM CENTRAL CANADA ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK AS HIGH COMPARED TO LAST TIME
WHICH RESULTS IN SBCAPES MONDAY AFTERNOON BELOW 1000 J/KG.
HOWEVER...WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT /APPROACHING -16C AT 500MB/
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR/OBSERVE SMALL HAIL WITHIN THE
DEEPER CONVECTION.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WE STILL EXPECT
SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS IN
THE CWA WHERE THESE LOCATIONS ARE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LOW AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE RESULTING IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE FA. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS WHICH
WILL AID IN THE MAX TEMPERATURE REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
IN THE VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL ALSO HAVE A CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM JAMES BAY. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOR SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...INCREASING
TO AROUND NORMAL ON THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME RADIATION FOG ISSUES MAY MATERIALIZE IN THE PREDAWN HOURS.
THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT WERE CLOSING AT KGFL SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...WE HAVE FORECAST
MVFR VISIBILITY BY 07Z WITH A POSSIBILITY OF IFR BETWEEN 07Z
AND 10Z. KPOU IS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED...THERE WAS STILL A
SPREAD OF SEVERAL DEGREES AND SATELLITE IMAGES AND NEARBY
AUGMENTED ASOS OBS INDICATE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL AT LEAST
PARTLY IMPAIR RADIATIONAL COOLING. WE HAVE THEREFORE SIMPLY
FORECAST MVFR BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 08Z AND AROUND SUNRISE.
A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND SHOULD KEEP KALB VFR THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS. ANY FOG/MIST SHOULD BURN OFF AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
SUNRISE WITH A BEAUTIFUL DAY FOR VFR FLIGHT AND PHOTOGRAPHY.
WE HAVE FORECAST FEW050 TO REFLECT SOME FAIR WX CU WHICH ARE
LIKELY TO POP UP MIDDAY. WINDS TODAY WILL BE WESTERLY 5 TO
15 KNOTS. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...WITH SKC OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND SCT250 SOUTH
OF ALBANY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN PM...VFR...NO WX.
MON/TUE...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF MVFR/IFR -SHRA/-TSRA...ESPECIALLY PM.
WED/THU...VFR...PSBL EARLY AM MVFR/IFR FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THE
REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 90 TO 100
PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT ON SUNDAY.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...SUBSIDING
TO LESS THAN 10 MPH OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY...WEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE...WHICH WILL LET THE GROUND DRY OUT SOME. ANOTHER LOW
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE GROUND SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
DRY ENOUGH THAT FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN AS IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
HOWEVER...LOCAL RESEARCH DOES POINT TOWARD SOME ELEVATED CONCERN
AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL
DAYS OF WARM AND SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCK
NEAR TERM...RCK
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

000
FXUS61 KOKX 050535
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
135 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR MOST OF
THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
PRES GRADIENT RELAXING AND DAYTIME HEATING IS DIMINISHING. AS
SUCH...WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE. A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT EXPECT LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS BY MIDNIGHT. ALL IN ALL A FANTASTIC EVENING FOR OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY EVENTS.

CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AWAY FROM THE CITY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S
IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
OUTLYING LOCALES IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NORTHERN CT/PINE
BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND COULD DROP CLOSE TO 50.

UPDATED THE GRIDDED FORECASTS TO REFLECT LOWER THEN EXPECTED
DEW POINTS/RH...AND SHAVED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF MINS ACROSS THE BOARD.
OTHERWISE THE AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA SUN AFTERNOON. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY. SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRES OVER THE TN VALLEY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON MORNING. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP OVER THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES MON AFTERNOON. BEST FORCING WILL
BE OVER NORTHERN ZONES...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH
AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. A POSSIBLY MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH DURING THE DAY ON TUE...AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ONCE
AGAIN.

HIGHS ON MON AND TUE WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING US LOWER-END POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER
TROF. DRY WEATHER THEREFORE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE...MORE NOTICEABLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A SW FLOW. SATURDAY SHOULD FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AS WELL...BUT PROBABLY MITIGATED TO A DEGREE BY CLOUD COVER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. BETTER CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZES TODAY AT COASTAL AIRPORTS...
THOUGH WITH W-NW FLOW IN PLACE INITIALLY IT MAY TAKE A COUPLE OF
HOURS LONGER THAN USUAL TO TRANSITION TO TYPICAL SEA BREEZE
DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON MON...THEN A
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE TUE-WED...VIA DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
APPROACH. VFR THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MARINE...
W-NW FLOW WITH 20 KT GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...BECOMING NEARLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS
EVENING.

NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS ARE ON THE HORIZON. WILL GENERALLY
EXPECT SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...
THOUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

LONG TERM MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES IN
THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON CONVECTION STARTING ON MON COULD RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/HYDROLOGY...MPS
NEAR TERM...BS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...MPS/JC

000
FXUS61 KALY 050225
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1019 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  AS WE START THE NEW
WORK WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1020 PM EDT...PREVIOUS BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HAS
WEAKENED UPON DRIFTING SE...WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES
REMAINING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HELDERBERGS...AND SOUTHERN VT. ONLY
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO ONGOING GRIDDED DATABASE...MAINLY TO UPDATE
TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS WITH LATEST OBS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW...

AS OF 845 PM EDT...HAVE AMENDED FORECAST TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION N AND W
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THE TAIL END OF COMPACT
SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY TRAVERSING E ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. SOME MID LEVEL DYNAMICS...IN COMBINATION WITH SOME
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY GREAT LAKES HAS BEEN
CONTRIBUTING TO THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN UPON MOVING SE...BUT STILL SHOULD PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO AT LEAST NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. THEY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF IN DURATION...ALTHOUGH
COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET EXIT REGION DYNAMICS COMBINING WITH A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE HAS RESULTED IN A RATHER ORGANIZED AREA OF
CONVECTION JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA TODAY. SOME LAKE ENHANCED
/YES IT IS COLD ENOUGH ALOFT/ SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PLAQUE THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF THE DACKS WHERE TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED
TO REACH 60F. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING...THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WHICH PLACES THE
REGION UNDER AN INCREASE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD TAKE
ITS TOLL ON THE CONVECTION AND WE WILL DECREASE POPS ACROSS THE
DACKS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS OVERNIGHT LOWS SETTLE TO BETWEEN 45F AND
55F.

A RATHER WEAK AND DIFFUSE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NCEP MODEL SUITE
ALL SUGGEST DRY WEATHER AND SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU AS WE SHOULD
EXCEED OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE AROUND NOON WHICH IS FORECAST TO
BE INTO THE LOWER 70S. BASED ON MIXING LAYER HEIGHT FORECASTS
BETWEEN 800-750MB...WE SHOULD TAP OUT NEAR 80F IN THE VALLEYS WITH
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE DEPENDING ON ELEVATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE
APPROACH OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE CWA /GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES TODAY/. THEN THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM CENTRAL CANADA ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK AS HIGH COMPARED TO LAST TIME
WHICH RESULTS IN SBCAPES MONDAY AFTERNOON BELOW 1000 J/KG.
HOWEVER...WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT /APPROACHING -16C AT 500MB/
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR/OBSERVE SMALL HAIL WITHIN THE
DEEPER CONVECTION.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WE STILL EXPECT
SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS IN
THE CWA WHERE THESE LOCATIONS ARE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LOW AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE RESULTING IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE FA. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS WHICH
WILL AID IN THE MAX TEMPERATURE REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
IN THE VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL ALSO HAVE A CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM JAMES BAY. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOR SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...INCREASING
TO AROUND NORMAL ON THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT...VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE TAF SITES...WITH JUST
SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH 5000-7000 FT AGL BASES. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC
FOR SOME LOCALIZED SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AT
KGFL...AND POSSIBLY KPOU. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR VSBYS
LATER THIS EVENING AT KGFL...WHERE PROBABILITY FOR SOME MIFG IS A
BIT HIGHER...AND LEFT OUT MENTION ELSEWHERE.

FOR SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY
CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH BASES OF 5000-7000 FT AGL...ALONG WITH PERHAPS
SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AT KPOU IN THE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS...WITH
SPEEDS MAINLY LESS THAN 8 KT OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
RESUME SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT IS POSSIBLE AT KALB WHERE FUNNELING ENHANCEMENT DOWN THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY MAY OCCUR.

OUTLOOK...
SUN PM...VFR...NO WX.
MON/TUE...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF MVFR/IFR -SHRA/-TSRA...ESPECIALLY PM.
WED/THU...VFR...PSBL EARLY AM MVFR/IFR FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THE
REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 90 TO 100
PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT ON SUNDAY.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...SUBSIDING
TO LESS THAN 10 MPH OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY...WEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE...WHICH WILL LET THE GROUND DRY OUT SOME. ANOTHER LOW
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE GROUND SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
DRY ENOUGH THAT FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN AS IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
HOWEVER...LOCAL RESEARCH DOES POINT TOWARD SOME ELEVATED CONCERN
AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL
DAYS OF WARM AND SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

000
FXUS61 KBOX 050206
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1006 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS MOVES IN OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING DAYTIME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE ADIRONDAKS. WE HAVE EXPANDED THE
CLOUDS IN SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MASS FOR THE HOURS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND THEN DIMINISHED THEM OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
LOOK ON TARGET...BUT DEWPOINTS ARE DRIER THAN FORECAST AND SO
FORECASTS WILL BE ADJUSTED ABOUT 5 DEGREES LOWER/DRIER.

CLOUD SHIELD FROM MID ATLANTIC SYSTEM ARE PROGRESSING EAST-SOUTHEAST.
THE CLOUDS OF THIS SYSTEM THAT ARE UPSTREAM OF US ARE MAINLY
CIRRUS...THE THICKER OF WHICH SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY... MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK H5
RIDGING! SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. 12Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE
WAS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS 4AM KBOX FCST TEMPS AND CK`D AGAINST
THE RGEM/NAM 2M TEMP FCST. SKY WAS GFS MOSGUIDE BLENDED WITH THE RGEM
SKY CVR ALG 15Z-21Z. MAINLY SCT CLOUDS WITH HEATING. A VERY VERY NICE
DAY...EVEN NICER THAN TODAY DUE TO LOWER RH AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND
GUSTS. NAM MXG HTS AND GUST ALG USED.

SUN NIGHT...LOW PRES MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND PASSES FAR ENOUGH
S TO MISS OUR CWA. SREF POPS USED. GFS 12Z MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS BLENDED
WITH THE 4AM KBOX OFFICIAL FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLOW-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MODELED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL SFC
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS THE
NWRN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. COULD SEE
MOST IF NOT ALL THE CWA DRY HOWEVER. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...KEPT TEMPS
AT THE COAST COOLER THAN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS DUE TO EXPECTED
ONSHORE FLOW.

TUESDAY...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ON TUE. MAY
SEE SOME AFTERNOON STORMS WHERE POCKETS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOP. SMALL
HAIL A POSSIBILITY. PLAYED DAYTIME MAX TEMPS A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SEASONAL LEVELS. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IN LATER FORECAST. NOT
THINKING WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT THERE COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND.

STINGY UPPER TROF HANGS AROUND ON WED. MAY HAVE TO GO WITH HIGHER
POPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT DON/T WANT TO GO TOO OVERBOARD AT
THIS TIME. TROF COULD BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE...POSSIBLY OFFERING
SUNNIER SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. WE NOTE THAT 12Z ECMWF IS RATHER WET
HOWEVER.

MODELS AGREE THAT WARMER WEATHER COULD BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER...NO CONFIDENT AT ALL ON ANYTHING
HOT. GFS IS PROBABLY TOO FAST WITH COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEK...PREFER ECMWF TIMING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. W WIND GUSTS 15Z-21Z SUNDAY 20-25 KTS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTN ...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN WED AFTN. EARLY MORNING
FOG MAY LIMIT VSBYS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FEET ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE A FEW OCNL 5 FOOTERS ON THE OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...W-SW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT NEAR SHORE WHICH MAY PROMPT ANOTHER
SCA ISSUANCE FOR THE NR SHORE WATERS. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY NIGHT...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE TIMES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PROVIDE FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE...PERHAPS
TUE AND WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...DRAG/EKSTER
MARINE...DRAG/EKSTER/WTB

000
FXUS61 KALY 050049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
844 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  AS WE START THE NEW
WORK WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM EDT...HAVE AMENDED FORECAST TO INCLUDE MENTION OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION N AND W
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THE TAIL END OF COMPACT
SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY TRAVERSING E ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS. SOME MID LEVEL DYNAMICS...IN COMBINATION WITH SOME
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NEARBY GREAT LAKES HAS BEEN
CONTRIBUTING TO THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN UPON MOVING SE...BUT STILL SHOULD PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO AT LEAST NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. THEY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY BRIEF IN DURATION...ALTHOUGH
COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET EXIT REGION DYNAMICS COMBINING WITH A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE HAS RESULTED IN A RATHER ORGANIZED AREA OF
CONVECTION JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA TODAY. SOME LAKE ENHANCED
/YES IT IS COLD ENOUGH ALOFT/ SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PLAQUE THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF THE DACKS WHERE TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED
TO REACH 60F. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING...THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WHICH PLACES THE
REGION UNDER AN INCREASE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD TAKE
ITS TOLL ON THE CONVECTION AND WE WILL DECREASE POPS ACROSS THE
DACKS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS OVERNIGHT LOWS SETTLE TO BETWEEN 45F AND
55F.

A RATHER WEAK AND DIFFUSE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NCEP MODEL SUITE
ALL SUGGEST DRY WEATHER AND SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU AS WE SHOULD
EXCEED OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE AROUND NOON WHICH IS FORECAST TO
BE INTO THE LOWER 70S. BASED ON MIXING LAYER HEIGHT FORECASTS
BETWEEN 800-750MB...WE SHOULD TAP OUT NEAR 80F IN THE VALLEYS WITH
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE DEPENDING ON ELEVATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE
APPROACH OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE CWA /GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES TODAY/. THEN THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM CENTRAL CANADA ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK AS HIGH COMPARED TO LAST TIME
WHICH RESULTS IN SBCAPES MONDAY AFTERNOON BELOW 1000 J/KG.
HOWEVER...WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT /APPROACHING -16C AT 500MB/
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR/OBSERVE SMALL HAIL WITHIN THE
DEEPER CONVECTION.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WE STILL EXPECT
SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS IN
THE CWA WHERE THESE LOCATIONS ARE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LOW AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE RESULTING IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE FA. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS WHICH
WILL AID IN THE MAX TEMPERATURE REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
IN THE VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL ALSO HAVE A CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM JAMES BAY. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOR SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...INCREASING
TO AROUND NORMAL ON THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT...VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE TAF SITES...WITH JUST
SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH 5000-7000 FT AGL BASES. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC
FOR SOME LOCALIZED SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AT
KGFL...AND POSSIBLY KPOU. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR VSBYS
LATER THIS EVENING AT KGFL...WHERE PROBABILITY FOR SOME MIFG IS A
BIT HIGHER...AND LEFT OUT MENTION ELSEWHERE.

FOR SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY
CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH BASES OF 5000-7000 FT AGL...ALONG WITH PERHAPS
SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AT KPOU IN THE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS...WITH
SPEEDS MAINLY LESS THAN 8 KT OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
RESUME SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT IS POSSIBLE AT KALB WHERE FUNNELING ENHANCEMENT DOWN THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY MAY OCCUR.

OUTLOOK...
SUN PM...VFR...NO WX.
MON/TUE...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF MVFR/IFR -SHRA/-TSRA...ESPECIALLY PM.
WED/THU...VFR...PSBL EARLY AM MVFR/IFR FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THE
REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 90 TO 100
PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT ON SUNDAY.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...SUBSIDING
TO LESS THAN 10 MPH OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY...WEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE...WHICH WILL LET THE GROUND DRY OUT SOME. ANOTHER LOW
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE GROUND SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
DRY ENOUGH THAT FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN AS IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
HOWEVER...LOCAL RESEARCH DOES POINT TOWARD SOME ELEVATED CONCERN
AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL
DAYS OF WARM AND SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

000
FXUS61 KOKX 050033
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
833 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR MOST OF
THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
PRES GRADIENT RELAXING AND DAYTIME HEATING IS DIMINISHING. AS
SUCH...WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE. A FEW GUSTS TO 20 MPH
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT EXPECT LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS BY MIDNIGHT. ALL IN ALL A FANTASTIC EVENING FOR OUTDOOR
HOLIDAY EVENTS.

CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AWAY FROM THE CITY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S
IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
OUTLYING LOCALES IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NORTHERN CT/PINE
BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND COULD DROP CLOSE TO 50.

UPDATED THE GRIDDED FORECASTS TO REFLECT LOWER THEN EXPECTED
DEW POINTS/RH...AND SHAVED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF MINS ACROSS THE BOARD.
OTHERWISE THE AFTERNOON FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA SUN AFTERNOON. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY. SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRES OVER THE TN VALLEY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON MORNING. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP OVER THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES MON AFTERNOON. BEST FORCING WILL
BE OVER NORTHERN ZONES...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH
AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. A POSSIBLY MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH DURING THE DAY ON TUE...AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ONCE
AGAIN.

HIGHS ON MON AND TUE WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING US LOWER-END POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER
TROF. DRY WEATHER THEREFORE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE...MORE NOTICEABLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A SW FLOW. SATURDAY SHOULD FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AS WELL...BUT PROBABLY MITIGATED TO A DEGREE BY CLOUD COVER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS.

BETTER CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZES SUNDAY AT COASTAL
AIRPORTS...ALTHOUGH TIMING IN CURRENT TAF PACKAGE MAY NEED TO BE
READJUSTED A BIT WITH SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON
MON...THEN A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE TUE-WED...VIA DIURNAL
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH APPROACH. VFR THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MARINE...
W-NW FLOW WITH 20 KT GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...BECOMING NEARLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS
EVENING.

NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS ARE ON THE HORIZON. WILL GENERALLY
EXPECT SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...
THOUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

LONG TERM MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES IN
THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON CONVECTION STARTING ON MON COULD RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...BS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BS
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS

000
FXUS61 KALY 042328
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
728 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  AS WE START THE NEW
WORK WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET EXIT REGION DYNAMICS COMBINING WITH A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE HAS RESULTED IN A RATHER ORGANIZED AREA OF
CONVECTION JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA TODAY. SOME LAKE ENHANCED
/YES IT IS COLD ENOUGH ALOFT/ SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PLAQUE THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF THE DACKS WHERE TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED
TO REACH 60F. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING...THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WHICH PLACES THE
REGION UNDER AN INCREASE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD TAKE
ITS TOLL ON THE CONVECTION AND WE WILL DECREASE POPS ACROSS THE
DACKS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS OVERNIGHT LOWS SETTLE TO BETWEEN 45F AND
55F.

A RATHER WEAK AND DIFFUSE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NCEP MODEL SUITE
ALL SUGGEST DRY WEATHER AND SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU AS WE SHOULD
EXCEED OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE AROUND NOON WHICH IS FORECAST TO
BE INTO THE LOWER 70S. BASED ON MIXING LAYER HEIGHT FORECASTS
BETWEEN 800-750MB...WE SHOULD TAP OUT NEAR 80F IN THE VALLEYS WITH
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE DEPENDING ON ELEVATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE
APPROACH OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE CWA /GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES TODAY/. THEN THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM CENTRAL CANADA ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK AS HIGH COMPARED TO LAST TIME
WHICH RESULTS IN SBCAPES MONDAY AFTERNOON BELOW 1000 J/KG.
HOWEVER...WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT /APPROACHING -16C AT 500MB/
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR/OBSERVE SMALL HAIL WITHIN THE
DEEPER CONVECTION.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WE STILL EXPECT
SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS IN
THE CWA WHERE THESE LOCATIONS ARE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LOW AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE RESULTING IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE FA. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS WHICH
WILL AID IN THE MAX TEMPERATURE REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
IN THE VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL ALSO HAVE A CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM JAMES BAY. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOR SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...INCREASING
TO AROUND NORMAL ON THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT...VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE TAF SITES...WITH JUST
SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH 5000-7000 FT AGL BASES. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC
FOR SOME LOCALIZED SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AT
KGFL...AND POSSIBLY KPOU. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR VSBYS
LATER THIS EVENING AT KGFL...WHERE PROBABILITY FOR SOME MIFG IS A
BIT HIGHER...AND LEFT OUT MENTION ELSEWHERE.

FOR SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY
CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH BASES OF 5000-7000 FT AGL...ALONG WITH PERHAPS
SOME HIGHER CLOUDS AT KPOU IN THE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS...WITH
SPEEDS MAINLY LESS THAN 8 KT OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
RESUME SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT IS POSSIBLE AT KALB WHERE FUNNELING ENHANCEMENT DOWN THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY MAY OCCUR.

OUTLOOK...
SUN PM...VFR...NO WX.
MON/TUE...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF MVFR/IFR -SHRA/-TSRA...ESPECIALLY PM.
WED/THU...VFR...PSBL EARLY AM MVFR/IFR FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THE
REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 90 TO 100
PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT ON SUNDAY.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...SUBSIDING
TO LESS THAN 10 MPH OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY...WEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE...WHICH WILL LET THE GROUND DRY OUT SOME. ANOTHER LOW
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE GROUND SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
DRY ENOUGH THAT FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN AS IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
HOWEVER...LOCAL RESEARCH DOES POINT TOWARD SOME ELEVATED CONCERN
AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL
DAYS OF WARM AND SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...HELLER/KL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

000
FXUS61 KBOX 042327
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
727 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING
IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DAYTIME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

AT 4PM FCST PRODUCTS ARE POSTED FOR A DRY 4TH OF JULY EVENING PER ALL
GUIDANCE AND THE FCST TEMPS ARE SIMILAR IN THE 12Z MOS TO THAT OF OUR
4AM KBOX FCST. GUSTY WNW WINDS TO NR 30 KNOTS AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AT SUNSET.

FOR THE RECORD: MANY MODELS WERE TOO ROBUST FOR SVRL DAYS REGARDING
THIS AFTNS AND WHAT RESULTED... A LACK OF CONVECTION IN SNE THIS
AFTN. THE UKMET WAS THE BEST-MOST CONSERVATIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY... MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK H5
RIDGING! SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. 12Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE
WAS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS 4AM KBOX FCST TEMPS AND CK`D AGAINST
THE RGEM/NAM 2M TEMP FCST. SKY WAS GFS MOSGUIDE BLENDED WITH THE RGEM
SKY CVR ALG 15Z-21Z. MAINLY SCT CLOUDS WITH HEATING. A VERY VERY NICE
DAY...EVEN NICER THAN TODAY DUE TO LOWER RH AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND
GUSTS. NAM MXG HTS AND GUST ALG USED.

SUN NIGHT...LOW PRES MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND PASSES FAR ENOUGH
S TO MISS OUR CWA. SREF POPS USED. GFS 12Z MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS BLENDED
WITH THE 4AM KBOX OFFICIAL FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLOW-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MODELED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL SFC
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS THE
NWRN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. COULD SEE
MOST IF NOT ALL THE CWA DRY HOWEVER. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...KEPT TEMPS
AT THE COAST COOLER THAN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS DUE TO EXPECTED
ONSHORE FLOW.

TUESDAY...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ON TUE. MAY
SEE SOME AFTERNOON STORMS WHERE POCKETS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOP. SMALL
HAIL A POSSIBILITY. PLAYED DAYTIME MAX TEMPS A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SEASONAL LEVELS. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IN LATER FORECAST. NOT
THINKING WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT THERE COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND.

STINGY UPPER TROF HANGS AROUND ON WED. MAY HAVE TO GO WITH HIGHER
POPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT DON/T WANT TO GO TOO OVERBOARD AT
THIS TIME. TROF COULD BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE...POSSIBLY OFFERING
SUNNIER SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. WE NOTE THAT 12Z ECMWF IS RATHER WET
HOWEVER.

MODELS AGREE THAT WARMER WEATHER COULD BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER...NO CONFIDENT AT ALL ON ANYTHING
HOT. GFS IS PROBABLY TOO FAST WITH COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEK...PREFER ECMWF TIMING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
REMAINDER TODAY...VFR. SCT W SFC WINDS G25-30 KT THRU ABOUT 00Z.

TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. W WIND GUSTS 15Z-21Z SUNDAY 20-25 KTS.


OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTN ...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN WED AFTN. EARLY MORNING
FOG MAY LIMIT VSBYS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING. CANCELLED THE SCA ADVISORY
THAT WAS IN EFFECT...THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLD WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
NEARSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE TREND IS DOWN. SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST BELOW 5 FEET ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE A FEW OCNL 5 FOOTERS ON THE OUTER WATERS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...W-SW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT NEAR SHORE WHICH MAY PROMPT ANOTHER
SCA ISSUANCE FOR THE NR SHORE WATERS. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY NIGHT...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE TIMES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PROVIDE FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE...PERHAPS
TUE AND WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...DRAG/EKSTER
MARINE...DRAG/EKSTER

000
FXUS61 KBOX 042056
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
456 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING
IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DAYTIME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NW FLOW GUST FRONT WELL DEFINED ON TBOS LONG RANGE R IMAGERY...VSBL
SAT IMAGERY IS STALLING AND WASHING OUT ON CAPE ANN AND NO NEW MWS
EXPECTED. HAD A NW WIND GUST 36 KTS REPORTED AT NEWBURYPORT ARD 317
PM. NO MEASURABLE PCPN ASSTD THO PROB BORN OUT OF MORE ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS IN S NH THAT PASSED THRU MHT ABOUT ABOUT AN HR AGO. LAST
CELL E OF MHT AT 2045Z MAY GENERATE A SMALL-VERY SHORT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FOR NBT SOON?

NOT EXPECTING ANY OTHER DEVELOPMENTS THIS EVENING.

AT 4PM FCST PRODUCTS ARE POSTED FOR A DRY 4TH OF JULY EVENING PER ALL
GUIDANCE AND THE FCST TEMPS ARE SIMILAR IN THE 12Z MOS TO THAT OF OUR
4AM KBOX FCST. GUSTY WNW WINDS TO NR 30 KNOTS AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AT SUNSET.

FOR THE RECORD: MANY MODELS WERE TOO ROBUST FOR SVRL DAYS REGARDING
THIS AFTNS AND WHAT RESULTED... A LACK OF CONVECTION IN SNE THIS
AFTN. THE UKMET WAS THE BEST-MOST CONSERVATIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY... MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK H5
RIDGING! SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. 12Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE
WAS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS 4AM KBOX FCST TEMPS AND CK`D AGAINST
THE RGEM/NAM 2M TEMP FCST. SKY WAS GFS MOSGUIDE BLENDED WITH THE RGEM
SKY CVR ALG 15Z-21Z. MAINLY SCT CLOUDS WITH HEATING. A VERY VERY NICE
DAY...EVEN NICER THAN TODAY DUE TO LOWER RH AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND
GUSTS. NAM MXG HTS AND GUST ALG USED.

SUN NIGHT...LOW PRES MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND PASSES FAR ENOUGH
S TO MISS OUR CWA. SREF POPS USED. GFS 12Z MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS BLENDED
WITH THE 4AM KBOX OFFICIAL FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLOW-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MODELED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL SFC
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS THE
NWRN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. COULD SEE
MOST IF NOT ALL THE CWA DRY HOWEVER. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...KEPT TEMPS
AT THE COAST COOLER THAN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS DUE TO EXPECTED
ONSHORE FLOW.

TUESDAY...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ON TUE. MAY
SEE SOME AFTERNOON STORMS WHERE POCKETS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOP. SMALL
HAIL A POSSIBILITY. PLAYED DAYTIME MAX TEMPS A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SEASONAL LEVELS. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IN LATER FORECAST. NOT
THINKING WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT THERE COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND.

STINGY UPPER TROF HANGS AROUND ON WED. MAY HAVE TO GO WITH HIGHER
POPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT DON/T WANT TO GO TOO OVERBOARD AT
THIS TIME. TROF COULD BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE...POSSIBLY OFFERING
SUNNIER SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. WE NOTE THAT 12Z ECMWF IS RATHER WET
HOWEVER.

MODELS AGREE THAT WARMER WEATHER COULD BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER...NO CONFIDENT AT ALL ON ANYTHING
HOT. GFS IS PROBABLY TOO FAST WITH COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEK...PREFER ECMWF TIMING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
REMAINDER TODAY...VFR. SCT W SFC WINDS G25-30 KT THRU ABOUT 00Z.

TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. W WIND GUSTS 15Z-21Z SUNDAY 20-25 KTS.


OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTN ...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN WED AFTN. EARLY MORNING
FOG MAY LIMIT VSBYS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SCA HEADLINES POSTED AS PER MWW FOR NR SHORE LATE AFTN WIND GUSTS
AND SRN OUTER WATERS PROJECTION OF 5 FT SEA TONIGHT. PORTIONS OF THE
SCA WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER ABOUT 8 PM THIS EVENING.

SUNDAY...W-SW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT NEAR SHORE WHICH MAY PROMPT ANOTHER
SCA ISSUANCE FOR THE NR SHORE WATERS. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY NIGHT...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE TIMES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PROVIDE FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE...PERHAPS
TUE AND WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG 451
SHORT TERM...DRAG 451
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...DRAG/EKSTER 451
MARINE...DRAG/EKSTER 451

000
FXUS61 KBOX 042025
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
425 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING
IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DAYTIME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NW FLOW GUST FRONT VSBL ON TBOS IMAGERY CROSSING CAPE ANN AT 1955Z.
MWS POSTED. HAD A NW WIND GUST 36 KTS REPORTED AT NEWBURYPORT ARD 317
PM. NO MEASURABLE PCPN ASSTD THO PROB BORN OUT OF MORE ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS IN S NH THAT PASSED THRU MHT ABOUT ABOUT AN HR AGO.

OTRW WATCHING ONE LAST CELL HEADING ESE TO THE N OF MHT AT 1955Z AND
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY OTHER DEVELOPMENTS THIS EVENING.

AT 4PM FCST PRODUCTS ARE POSTED FOR A DRY 4TH OF JULY EVENING PER ALL
GUIDANCE AND THE FCST TEMPS ARE SIMILAR IN THE 12Z MOS TO THAT OF OUR
4AM KBOX FCST. GUSTY WNW WINDS TO NR 30 KNOTS AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES
/NW WIND OUTFLOW GUST FRONT HAD NR 35 KTS ARD 317 PM MOUTH OF MERR
RVR AREA/

THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AT SUNSET.

FOR THE RECORD: MANY MODELS WERE TOO ROBUST FOR SVRL DAYS REGARDING
THIS AFTNS LACK OF CONVECTION IN SNE THIS AFTN. THE UKMET WAS THE
BEST-MOST CONSERVATIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY... MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK H5
RIDGING! SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. 12Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE
WAS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS 4AM KBOX FCST TEMPS AND CK`D AGAINST
THE RGEM/NAM 2M TEMP FCST. SKY WAS GFS MOSGUIDE BLENDED WITH THE RGEM
SKY CVR ALG 15Z-21Z. MAINLY SCT CLOUDS WITH HEATING. A VERY VERY NICE
DAY...EVEN NICER THAN TODAY DUE TO LOWER RH AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND
GUSTS. NAM MXG HTS AND GUST ALG USED.

SUN NIGHT...LOW PRES MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND PASSES FAR
ENOUGH S TO MISS OUR CWA. SREF POPS USED. GFS 12Z MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS
BLENDED WITH THE 4AM KBOX OFFICIAL FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLOW-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MODELED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL SFC
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS THE
NWRN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. COULD SEE
MOST IF NOT ALL THE CWA DRY HOWEVER. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...KEPT TEMPS
AT THE COAST COOLER THAN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS DUE TO EXPECTED
ONSHORE FLOW.

TUESDAY...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ON TUE. MAY
SEE SOME AFTERNOON STORMS WHERE POCKETS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOP. SMALL
HAIL A POSSIBILITY. PLAYED DAYTIME MAX TEMPS A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SEASONAL LEVELS. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IN LATER FORECAST. NOT
THINKING WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT THERE COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND.

STINGY UPPER TROF HANGS AROUND ON WED. MAY HAVE TO GO WITH HIGHER
POPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT DON/T WANT TO GO TOO OVERBOARD AT
THIS TIME. TROF COULD BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE...POSSIBLY OFFERING
SUNNIER SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. WE NOTE THAT 12Z ECMWF IS RATHER WET
HOWEVER.

MODELS AGREE THAT WARMER WEATHER COULD BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER...NO CONFIDENT AT ALL ON ANYTHING
HOT. GFS IS PROBABLY TOO FAST WITH COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEK...PREFER ECMWF TIMING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. SCT SHRA/WDLY SCT TSRA MHT GENERALLY FROM NOW TO 1930Z. W SFC
WINDS G25 KT 18Z-00Z.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTN ...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN WED AFTN. EARLY MORNING
FOG MAY LIMIT VSBYS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON
E MA COAST AND SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED ARD 915 AM FOR BOS HARBOR AND THE
NR SHORE WATERS PYM-NBT. MAX GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR 3PM-6PM TODAY.

WILL SEE SW WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. LOW LEVEL 1000-850MB
LAPSE RATES DO NOT SUPPORT SUFFICIENT MIXING ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS
UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS DRIER DEWPOINT AIR
FINALLY ADVECTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BETWEEN 20Z AND 08Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS. INCREASING SW FETCH COULD BRING 5 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS AT THAT TIME.

SUNDAY...SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR SHORE. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE TIMES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PROVIDE FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE...PERHAPS
TUE AND WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG/STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...DRAG/STRAUSS
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...DRAG/EKSTER/STRAUSS
MARINE...DRAG/EKSTER/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 042004
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING
IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DAYTIME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NW FLOW GUST FRONT VSBL ON TBOS IMAGERY CROSSING CAPE ANN AT 1955Z.
MWS POSTED. HAD A NW WIND GUST 36 KTS REPORTED AT NEWBURYPORT ARD 317
PM. NO MEASURABLE PCPN ASSTD THO PROB BORN OUT OF MORE ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS IN S NH THAT PASSED THRU MHT ABOUT ABOUT AN HR AGO.

OTRW WATCHING ONE LAST CELL HEADING ESE TO THE N OF MHT AT 1955Z AND
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY OTHER DEVELOPMENTS THIS EVENING.

AT 4PM FCST PRODUCTS ARE POSTED FOR A DRY 4TH OF JULY EVENING PER ALL
GUIDANCE AND THE FCST TEMPS ARE SIMILAR IN THE 12 MOS TO THAT OF OUR
4AM KBOX FCST. GUSTY WNW WINDS TO NR 30 KNOTS AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES
/NW WIND OUTFLOW GUST FRONT HAD NR 35 KTS 30 MIN AGO IN MOUTH OF MERR
RVR AREA/

THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AT SUNSET.


FOR THE RECORD: MANY MODELS WERE TOO ROBUST FOR SVRL DAYS REGARDING
THIS AFTNS LACK OF CONVECTION IN SNE THIS AFTN. THE UKMET WAS THE
BEST-MOST CONSERVATIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT....
COOL AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MAVMOS GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK H5 RIDGING!
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL
NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SLOW-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MODELED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL SFC
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS THE
NWRN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. COULD SEE
MOST IF NOT ALL THE CWA DRY HOWEVER. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...KEPT TEMPS
AT THE COAST COOLER THAN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS DUE TO EXPECTED
ONSHORE FLOW.

TUESDAY...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ON TUE. MAY
SEE SOME AFTERNOON STORMS WHERE POCKETS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOP. SMALL
HAIL A POSSIBILITY. PLAYED DAYTIME MAX TEMPS A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SEASONAL LEVELS. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IN LATER FORECAST. NOT
THINKING WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT THERE COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND.

STINGY UPPER TROF HANGS AROUND ON WED. MAY HAVE TO GO WITH HIGHER
POPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT DON/T WANT TO GO TOO OVERBOARD AT
THIS TIME. TROF COULD BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE...POSSIBLY OFFERING
SUNNIER SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. WE NOTE THAT 12Z ECMWF IS RATHER WET
HOWEVER.

MODELS AGREE THAT WARMER WEATHER COULD BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER...NO CONFIDENT AT ALL ON ANYTHING
HOT. GFS IS PROBABLY TOO FAST WITH COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEK...PREFER ECMWF TIMING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. SCT SHRA/WDLY SCT TSRA MHT GENERALLY FROM NOW TO 1930Z. W SFC
WINDS G25 KT 18Z-00Z.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTN ...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN WED AFTN. EARLY MORNING
FOG MAY LIMIT VSBYS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON
E MA COAST AND SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED ARD 915 AM FOR BOS HARBOR AND THE
NR SHORE WATERS PYM-NBT. MAX GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR 3PM-6PM TODAY.

WILL SEE SW WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. LOW LEVEL 1000-850MB
LAPSE RATES DO NOT SUPPORT SUFFICIENT MIXING ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS
UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS DRIER DEWPOINT AIR
FINALLY ADVECTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BETWEEN 20Z AND 08Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS. INCREASING SW FETCH COULD BRING 5 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS AT THAT TIME.

SUNDAY...SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR SHORE. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE TIMES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PROVIDE FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE...PERHAPS
TUE AND WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG/STRAUSS 404
SHORT TERM...DRAG/STRAUSS
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...DRAG/EKSTER/STRAUSS
MARINE...DRAG/EKSTER/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KALY 041958
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
358 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  AS WE START THE NEW
WORK WEEK...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET EXIT REGION DYNAMICS COMBINING WITH A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE HAS RESULTED IN A RATHER ORGANIZED AREA OF
CONVECTION JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA TODAY. SOME LAKE ENHANCED
/YES IT IS COLD ENOUGH ALOFT/ SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PLAQUE THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF THE DACKS WHERE TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED
TO REACH 60F. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING...THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WHICH PLACES THE
REGION UNDER AN INCREASE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD TAKE
ITS TOLL ON THE CONVECTION AND WE WILL DECREASE POPS ACROSS THE
DACKS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS OVERNIGHT LOWS SETTLE TO BETWEEN 45F AND
55F.

A RATHER WEAK AND DIFFUSE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NCEP MODEL SUITE
ALL SUGGEST DRY WEATHER AND SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU AS WE SHOULD
EXCEED OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE AROUND NOON WHICH IS FORECAST TO
BE INTO THE LOWER 70S. BASED ON MIXING LAYER HEIGHT FORECASTS
BETWEEN 800-750MB...WE SHOULD TAP OUT NEAR 80F IN THE VALLEYS WITH
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ELSEWHERE DEPENDING ON ELEVATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE
APPROACH OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE CWA /GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES TODAY/. THEN THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM CENTRAL CANADA ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK AS HIGH COMPARED TO LAST TIME
WHICH RESULTS IN SBCAPES MONDAY AFTERNOON BELOW 1000 J/KG.
HOWEVER...WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT /APPROACHING -16C AT 500MB/
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR/OBSERVE SMALL HAIL WITHIN THE
DEEPER CONVECTION.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CONVECTION WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WE STILL EXPECT
SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS IN
THE CWA WHERE THESE LOCATIONS ARE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
LOW AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE RESULTING IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE FA. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS WHICH
WILL AID IN THE MAX TEMPERATURE REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
IN THE VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL ALSO HAVE A CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM JAMES BAY. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOR SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...INCREASING
TO AROUND NORMAL ON THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK.  SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SMALLER CLOUD CELLS AND BIGGER GAPS AT POU.
RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS STAYING WELL N OF GFL.  HAVE COVERED FIRST
FEW HOURS THERE WITH A VCSH.  SKIES WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH BARELY MVFR FOG/HAZE A POSSIBILITY AT ALL THREE
AIRPORTS...WITH SOME HAZE FROM FIREWORKS MIXED IN AS WINDS QUICKLY
CALM DOWN AFTER SUNDOWN.  MARGINAL SHEAR IS INDICATED THROUGH 2000
FEET AT BOTH GFL AND ALB...BUT NOT AT POU.  THIS MIXES OUT AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.  ONE OR TWO SCT FAIR
WEATHER CU/SC LAYERS ARE ALL THAT IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN PM...VFR...NO WX.
MON/TUE...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF MVFR/IFR -SHRA/-TSRA...ESPECIALLY PM.
WED...VFR...PSBL EARLY AM MVFR FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THE
REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 90 TO 100
PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT ON SUNDAY.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...SUBSIDING
TO LESS THAN 10 MPH OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY...WEST WINDS AT 5 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE...WHICH WILL LET THE GROUND DRY OUT SOME. ANOTHER LOW
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE GROUND SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
DRY ENOUGH THAT FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN AS IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
HOWEVER...LOCAL RESEARCH DOES POINT TOWARD SOME ELEVATED CONCERN
AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL
DAYS OF WARM AND SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...HELLER
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBOX 041910
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
310 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING
IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DAYTIME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
220PM...HAVE REDUCED AREA OF POSSIBLE SHOWERS TO ESSENTIALLY S NH AND
THE MERRIMACK RIVER AREA OF FAR NE MASS. YOU CAN SEE THE BACK EDGE ON
THE RADAR COVERAGE AS DRIER AIR ENCROACHES...CUTTING OFF CONVECTION
OR KEEPING IT SHALLOW WITH NO FURTHER GROWTH. THINK THE THREAT IS
ENDED NOW EXCEPT MHT AREA. MANY MODELS WERE TOO ROBUST INTO SNE THIS
AFTN AND PREV SEVERAL DAYS...THE UKMET THE BEST-MOST CONSERVATIVE.
ALL PRODUCT UPDATES HAVE POSTED.


1146 AM: WE ARE HOLDING ONTO THE CHC TSTM FCST DUE TO CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS... INSTABILITY AND 12Z GFS PROJECTED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
EARLY THIS AFTN. WE TRIMMED THE SRN EDGE SLIGHTLY FURTHER BUT JUST
DOING THESE UPDATES HOUR BY HOUR TIL SURE WE CANT HAVE A STRONG
STORM. IN MY OPINION... IF IT DOESNT DEVELOP BY 2PM...WE ARE DONE IN
MASS AND WOULD BE ALL DONE WITH THUNDER IN MHT REGION IF NIL PRIOR TO
330PM. WE HAD 30 KTS EARLIER AT ORH AND ARD 22 KTS BOS. WIND GUSTS
SHOULD INCREASE BETWEEN 3PM AND 6PM AS DRIER AIR SINKS INTO OUR AREA.


915 AM: GRIDS WARMED SLIGHTLY. ADDED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE T
PTN OF S NH AND NE MASS TODAY AND TRIMMED THE POPS ON THE SRN FLANK S
OF THE MA PIKE. PRODUCTS POSTED.

845 AM: EXAMINING ALB SOUNDING FOR 80/57 MIDDAY AND THERE IS A RISK OF A
TSTM NE MA AND S NH. IF THEY DEVELOP... WE COULD SEE IT STRONG. MAX
TT TDY IN SNE BE CLOSE TO 83F COASTAL PLAIN AND VALLEYS AND WILL
ADJUST SHORTLY.  HAVE BEEN IN TOUCH WITH SPC.


815 AM UPDATED GRIDS/NOWCAST/ZFP PRODUCTS FOR HIGHER GUSTS.
ALREADY RUNNING 20-23 KTS IN PARTS OF OUR CWA.

TODAY...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE...LAST ONE FOR THIS LONG WAVE
TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH BAY (CYYB) ONTARIO PROVINCE CANADA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD SHEAR VORTICITY NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. COLDEST H5 TEMPS FROM -14 TO -16C
ALSO LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN
MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. BRIEF MARGINAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BECOME CO-LOCATED WITH COLDEST H5 TEMPS LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.
THEN DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERALL CONFINED CHANCE POPS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TODAY.

GENERALLY MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND IT WILL BECOME BREEZY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS...MID 70S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT....
COOL AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MAVMOS GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK H5 RIDGING!
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL
NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SLOW-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MODELED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL SFC
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS THE
NWRN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. COULD SEE
MOST IF NOT ALL THE CWA DRY HOWEVER. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...KEPT TEMPS
AT THE COAST COOLER THAN MOST MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS DUE TO EXPECTED
ONSHORE FLOW.

TUESDAY...RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS ALOFT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ON TUE. MAY
SEE SOME AFTERNOON STORMS WHERE POCKETS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOP. SMALL
HAIL A POSSIBILITY. PLAYED DAYTIME MAX TEMPS A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SEASONAL LEVELS. MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IN LATER FORECAST. NOT
THINKING WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS...BUT THERE COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND.

STINGY UPPER TROF HANGS AROUND ON WED. MAY HAVE TO GO WITH HIGHER
POPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT DON/T WANT TO GO TOO OVERBOARD AT
THIS TIME. TROF COULD BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE...POSSIBLY OFFERING
SUNNIER SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. WE NOTE THAT 12Z ECMWF IS RATHER WET
HOWEVER.

MODELS AGREE THAT WARMER WEATHER COULD BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER...NO CONFIDENT AT ALL ON ANYTHING
HOT. GFS IS PROBABLY TOO FAST WITH COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEK...PREFER ECMWF TIMING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. SCT SHRA/WDLY SCT TSRA MHT GENERALLY FROM NOW TO 1930Z. W SFC
WINDS G25 KT 18Z-00Z.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTN ...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN WED AFTN. EARLY MORNING
FOG MAY LIMIT VSBYS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON
E MA COAST AND SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED ARD 915 AM FOR BOS HARBOR AND THE
NR SHORE WATERS PYM-NBT. MAX GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR 3PM-6PM TODAY.

WILL SEE SW WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. LOW LEVEL 1000-850MB
LAPSE RATES DO NOT SUPPORT SUFFICIENT MIXING ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS
UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS DRIER DEWPOINT AIR
FINALLY ADVECTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BETWEEN 20Z AND 08Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS. INCREASING SW FETCH COULD BRING 5 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS AT THAT TIME.

SUNDAY...SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR SHORE. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE TIMES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PROVIDE FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE...PERHAPS
TUE AND WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG/STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...DRAG/EKSTER/STRAUSS
MARINE...DRAG/EKSTER/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KOKX 041902
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
302 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS THIS EVENING...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRES AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIP NOT EXPECTED THIS EVENING...JUST
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO RELAX...BUT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AWAY FROM THE CITY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S
IN/AROUND NYC AND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
OUTLYING LOCALES IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NORTHERN CT/PINE
BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND COULD DROP CLOSE TO 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA SUN AFTERNOON. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY. SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRES OVER THE TN VALLEY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON MORNING. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP OVER THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES MON AFTERNOON. BEST FORCING WILL
BE OVER NORTHERN ZONES...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH
AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. A POSSIBLY MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH DURING THE DAY ON TUE...AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ONCE
AGAIN.

HIGHS ON MON AND TUE WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING US LOWER-END POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER
TROF. DRY WEATHER THEREFORE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE...MORE NOTICEABLY ON FRIDAY
WITH A SW FLOW. SATURDAY SHOULD FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AS WELL...BUT PROBABLY MITIGATED TO A DEGREE BY CLOUD COVER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR...WITH W-NW FLOW 10 TO 15 KT GUSTING TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES.
AFTN CU SCT TO BKN WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR.

WINDS SETTLE DOWN TO UNDER 10 KT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

BETTER CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZES SUNDAY AT COASTAL AIRPORTS.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON
MON...THEN A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE TUE-WED...VIA DIURNAL
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH APPROACH. VFR THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MARINE...
W-NW FLOW WITH 20 KT GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...BECOMING NEARLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS
EVENING.

NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS ARE ON THE HORIZON. WILL GENERALLY
EXPECT SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...
THOUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

LONG TERM MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES IN
THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON CONVECTION STARTING ON MON COULD RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 041822
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
222 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING
IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DAYTIME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
220PM...HAVE REDUCED AREA OF POSSIBLE SHOWERS TO ESSENTIALLY S NH AND
THE MERRIMACK RIVER AREA OF FAR NE MASS. YOU CAN SEE THE BACK EDGE ON
THE RADAR COVERAGE AS DRIER AIR ENCROACHES...CUTTING OFF CONVECTION
OR KEEPING IT SHALLOW WITH NO FURTHER GROWTH. THINK THE THREAT IS
ENDED NOW EXCEPT MHT AREA. MANY MODELS WERE TOO ROBUST INTO SNE THIS
AFTN AND PREV SEVERAL DAYS...THE UKMET THE BEST-MOST CONSERVATIVE.
ALL PRODUCT UPDATES HAVE POSTED.


1146 AM: WE ARE HOLDING ONTO THE CHC TSTM FCST DUE TO CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS... INSTABILITY AND 12Z GFS PROJECTED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
EARLY THIS AFTN. WE TRIMMED THE SRN EDGE SLIGHTLY FURTHER BUT JUST
DOING THESE UPDATES HOUR BY HOUR TIL SURE WE CANT HAVE A STRONG
STORM. IN MY OPINION... IF IT DOESNT DEVELOP BY 2PM...WE ARE DONE IN
MASS AND WOULD BE ALL DONE WITH THUNDER IN MHT REGION IF NIL PRIOR TO
330PM. WE HAD 30 KTS EARLIER AT ORH AND ARD 22 KTS BOS. WIND GUSTS
SHOULD INCREASE BETWEEN 3PM AND 6PM AS DRIER AIR SINKS INTO OUR AREA.


915 AM: GRIDS WARMED SLIGHTLY. ADDED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE T
PTN OF S NH AND NE MASS TODAY AND TRIMMED THE POPS ON THE SRN FLANK S
OF THE MA PIKE. PRODUCTS POSTED.

845 AM: EXAMINING ALB SOUNDING FOR 80/57 MIDDAY AND THERE IS A RISK OF A
TSTM NE MA AND S NH. IF THEY DEVELOP... WE COULD SEE IT STRONG. MAX
TT TDY IN SNE BE CLOSE TO 83F COASTAL PLAIN AND VALLEYS AND WILL
ADJUST SHORTLY.  HAVE BEEN IN TOUCH WITH SPC.


815 AM UPDATED GRIDS/NOWCAST/ZFP PRODUCTS FOR HIGHER GUSTS.
ALREADY RUNNING 20-23 KTS IN PARTS OF OUR CWA.

TODAY...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE...LAST ONE FOR THIS LONG WAVE
TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH BAY (CYYB) ONTARIO PROVINCE CANADA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD SHEAR VORTICITY NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. COLDEST H5 TEMPS FROM -14 TO -16C
ALSO LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN
MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. BRIEF MARGINAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BECOME CO-LOCATED WITH COLDEST H5 TEMPS LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.
THEN DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERALL CONFINED CHANCE POPS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TODAY.

GENERALLY MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND IT WILL BECOME BREEZY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS...MID 70S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT....
COOL AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MAVMOS GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK H5 RIDGING!
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL
NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW GENERALLY DRY AIR ALTHOUGH WITH A LAYER OF
60-70 PCT RH AROUND 850 MB.  EXPECT FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 50S...SO THIS SHOULD WELL REPRESENT
OUR MINS SUNDAY NIGHT. NORMAL WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LARGER CITIES
MAY LINGER AROUND 60.

MONDAY
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.  WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TO START THE DAY WITH SOLAR HEATING AND
FULL MIXING.  THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW LOCAL SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP.  MIXING LAYER TEMPS WILL WORK OFF OF 11-12C...SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH AROUND 80...COOLER IN THE HIGHLANDS AND
COAST.

UPPER LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS WITH COLD POOL ALOFT.  500 MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO AROUND -16C.  AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST GROWTH IN OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.  MODEL CAPES
REACH 1000 J/KG WITH PATCHES OF 1500 J...TOTAL TOTALS 50-55 AND WET
BULB ZERO 8500-9000 FT.  LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
TSTMS WITH HAIL POTENTIAL.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
UPPER TROF AND COLD POOL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
SURFACE MAX TEMPS. BEST INSTABILITY AND CLOUD GROWTH SHOULD BE IN
OUR NORTHERN AREAS...UNDER THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT.  WE WILL GO WITH
DIURNAL CLOUD CYCLE EACH DAY. BASED ON 00Z GLOBAL AND 00Z ECMWF WE
WILL GO WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN MOS INDICATES ON WEDNESDAY.  FOR POPS
WE WILL GO WITH CHANCE NORTH AND SLGT CHANCE EXTREME SOUTH
TUESDAY...AND 5-10 PCT LOWER WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY
PER THE MODELS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVING OFFSHORE FRIDAY. IF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURS THEN IT WILL
BRING QUITE A CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER.  FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH CLEAR
OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO POPS.  TEMPS MIX FROM 12C THURSDAY
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LOWER 80S...MAYBE MID 80S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST AND WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE OVER US...TEMPS
WOULD MIX FROM APPROX 16C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. SCT SHRA/WDLY SCT TSRA MHT GENERALLY FROM NOW TO 1930Z. W SFC
WINDS G25 KT 18Z-00Z.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY MONDAY-TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.  ALSO AREAS OF
IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON
E MA COAST AND SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED ARD 915 AM FOR BOS HARBOR AND THE
NR SHORE WATERS PYM-NBT. MAX GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR 3PM-6PM TODAY.

WILL SEE SW WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. LOW LEVEL 1000-850MB
LAPSE RATES DO NOT SUPPORT SUFFICIENT MIXING ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS
UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS DRIER DEWPOINT AIR
FINALLY ADVECTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BETWEEN 20Z AND 08Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS. INCREASING SW FETCH COULD BRING 5 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS AT THAT TIME.

SUNDAY...SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR SHORE. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG/STRAUSS 221
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS 221
MARINE...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KALY 041731
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
131 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
GIVING US A DRY DAY...BUT THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA...BUT
MAINLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. COLD ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER LOW IS HELPING ADVECT SOME MOISTURE
OFF THE GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN THE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS. WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE HELPING SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO SEE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPE.
STILL...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AROUND 1.5 SD BELOW
NORMAL...SUGGESTS THAT WITH MAXIMUM SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPERATURES. SO WITH CLOUD
COVER...DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS. WORDED SCATTERED SPRINKLES IN SOME
AREAS...REPLACING SHOWER WORDING AS TO NOT OVERSTATE THE RAIN
CHANCES. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

PREV AFD BELOW...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND CRESTS ACROSS FA. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY FOR EARLY JULY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80 WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PCPN
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE DURING THE DAY AND
CAPES VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT AND H10-H8 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EITHER
VERY WEAK OR LACKING ALL TOGETHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO HOLD THROUGH 12Z AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL IMPACT THE
REGION AS IT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD OF FA MONDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS CLOSER TO LOW CENTER. HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS BEST LIS
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE BETWEEN 18Z MON AND 00Z TUESDAY AND
SB CAPES GENERALLY 400-1000 J/KG OFF NAM WITH A FEW POCKETS OVER
1500 J/KG ACROSS SE PORTION OF FA. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT OF HAIL...BUT WITH WBZ HEIGHTS MORE LIKE
APRIL THAN JULY WITH A RANGE OF 5.5 TO 8 KFT ACROSS FA AT 00Z
TUESDAY WOULD EXPECT MOST OF HAIL TO BE SMALL. TOO FAR INTO THE
FUTURE TO PUT ENHANCED WORDING IN GRIDS BUT WILL MAKE MENTION IN
HWO OF SMALL HAIL THREAT. H8 WINDS VERY LIGHT 5 TO 15 KTS...H5
WINDS ONLY 20-35 KTS AND 300 MB JET SE OF FA LEAVING FA IN WRONG
QUAD (LR)OF EXITING JET...THUS NOT EXPECTING A WIND THREAT FROM
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND
80 SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY RESULTING IN
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY EVENING OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE IN AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY STARTING THURSDAY...AND WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT
WILL BE A BIT COOL TUESDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW AND MID
50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW 70S TO
THE LOW 80S WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY. IT WILL
THEN BECOME A BIT ON THE SULTRY SIDE WITH LOWS 55 TO 65 THURSDAY
NIGHT WARMING INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 ON FRIDAY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S BY MID AFTERNOON AND HEAT INDEXES 90 TO 95 IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK.  SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SMALLER CLOUD CELLS AND BIGGER GAPS AT POU.
RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS STAYING WELL N OF GFL.  HAVE COVERED FIRST
FEW HOURS THERE WITH A VCSH.  SKIES WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH BARELY MVFR FOG/HAZE A POSSIBILITY AT ALL THREE
AIRPORTS...WITH SOME HAZE FROM FIREWORKS MIXED IN AS WINDS QUICKLY
CALM DOWN AFTER SUNDOWN.  MARGINAL SHEAR IS INDICATED THROUGH 2000
FEET AT BOTH GFL AND ALB...BUT NOT AT POU.  THIS MIXES OUT AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.  ONE OR TWO SCT FAIR
WEATHER CU/SC LAYERS ARE ALL THAT IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN PM...VFR...NO WX.
MON/TUE...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF MVFR/IFR -SHRA/-TSRA...ESPECIALLY PM.
WED...VFR...PSBL EARLY AM MVFR FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT
MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY GIVING US A DRY DAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TODAY...RISE
TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH...WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT AND WEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE UPPER
LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE DECREASING
CLOUDS AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY
AND DRY...WHICH WILL LET THE GROUND DRY OUT SOME. ANOTHER LOW
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE GROUND SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
DRY ENOUGH THAT FLOODING WILL NOT BE A CONCERN AS IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF WARM AND SUMMER LIKE WEATHER
WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

RIVERS HAVE RECEDED FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEK. THE
STORMS YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT DID NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL SO THEY HAD LITTLE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
AVIATION...ELH

000
FXUS61 KOKX 041726
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
126 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY...AND AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE MAY RETURN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND CLIPPER LOW NORTH OF NY STATE WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EAST TODAY INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. DEEP NW
FLOW AND BEST COLD POOL INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY...WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AREAWIDE...WARMEST NY/NJ METRO AND COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT IN WAKE OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES LATE FROM DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE TN VALLEY. CANADIAN
AIRMASS ADVECTS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THEN
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WILL RUN
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS...FALLING INTO
THE 50S. PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S IN THE PINE BARRENS AND NORTHERN
VALLEYS.

NEXT PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL HAVE AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO ON SUNDAY AND DIGGING TOWARDS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK E ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THEN
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING ANY PHASING OF THESE
TWO IMPULSES...BUT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. WITHOUT PHASING...WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUN WILL
PASS WELL SOUTH OF NYC/LONG ISLAND LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT. IF THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WERE TO PHASE THIS WOULD DIG
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH...BRINGING THE LOW
FURTHER NORTH WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY SUN NIGHT. BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THAT OCCURRING. WILL CONTINUE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR SUN
EVE/SUN NIGHT BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY AND CLOSEST APPROACH.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY DAY ON SUN WITH PARTY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY HIGH AND MID DECK CLOUDS. BACKING FLOW ON
SUN WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S INTERIOR...MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON MON. UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR S AND E THIS FEATURE DIGS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE AFTERNOON SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NW 1/2 OF CWA. TEMPS RUNNING NEAR SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...BRINGING US LOWER-END
POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST OVERALL CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LOOK TO BE DIURNAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RIDGING ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. DRY WEATHER
THEREFORE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START...THEN WARMING ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN
THE PERIOD WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR...WITH W-NW FLOW 10 TO 15 KT GUSTING TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES.
AFTN CU SCT TO BKN WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR.

WINDS SETTLE DOWN TO UNDER 10 KT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

BETTER CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZES SUNDAY AT COASTAL AIRPORTS.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON
MON...THEN A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE TUE-WED...VIA DIURNAL
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH APPROACH. VFR THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY W-NW FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
15-20 KT WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE NEAR SHORE
JUST DOWNWIND OF BETTER VERTICAL MIXING OVER THE NYC URBAN HEAT
ISLAND. ISSUING SCA WOULD BE OVERKILL GIVEN BRIEF EXPECTED
COVERAGE/DURATION OF ANY 25-KT GUSTS.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES IN
THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORE CONVECTIVE PRECIP
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...BG
HYDROLOGY...NV

000
FXUS61 KBOX 041547
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1147 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING
IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DAYTIME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...
1146 AM: WE ARE HOLDING ONTO THE CHC TSTM FCST DUE TO CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS... INSTABILITY AND 12Z GFS PROJECTED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
EARLY THIS AFTN. WE TRIMMED THE SRN EDGE SLIGHTLY FURTHER BUT JUST
DOING THESE UPDATES HOUR BY HOUR TIL SURE WE CANT HAVE A STRONG
STORM. IN MY OPINION... IF IT DOESNT DEVELOP BY 2PM...WE ARE DONE IN
MASS AND WOULD BE ALL DONE WITH THUNDER IN MHT REGION IF NIL PRIOR TO
330PM. WE HAD 30 KTS EARLIER AT ORH AND ARD 22 KTS BOS. WIND GUSTS
SHOULD INCREASE BETWEEN 3PM AND 6PM AS DRIER AIR SINKS INTO OUR AREA.


915 AM: GRIDS WARMED SLIGHTLY. ADDED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE T
PTN OF S NH AND NE MASS TODAY AND TRIMMED THE POPS ON THE SRN FLANK S
OF THE MA PIKE. PRODUCTS POSTED.

845 AM: EXAMINING ALB SOUNDING FOR 80/57 MIDDAY AND THERE IS A RISK OF A
TSTM NE MA AND S NH. IF THEY DEVELOP... WE COULD SEE IT STRONG. MAX
TT TDY IN SNE BE CLOSE TO 83F COASTAL PLAIN AND VALLEYS AND WILL
ADJUST SHORTLY.  HAVE BEEN IN TOUCH WITH SPC.


815 AM UPDATED GRIDS/NOWCAST/ZFP PRODUCTS FOR HIGHER GUSTS.
ALREADY RUNNING 20-23 KTS IN PARTS OF OUR CWA.

TODAY...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE...LAST ONE FOR THIS LONG WAVE
TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH BAY (CYYB) ONTARIO PROVINCE CANADA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD SHEAR VORTICITY NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. COLDEST H5 TEMPS FROM -14 TO -16C
ALSO LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN
MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. BRIEF MARGINAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BECOME CO-LOCATED WITH COLDEST H5 TEMPS LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.
THEN DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERALL CONFINED CHANCE POPS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TODAY.

GENERALLY MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND IT WILL BECOME BREEZY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS...MID 70S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT....
COOL AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MAVMOS GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK H5 RIDGING!
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL
NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW GENERALLY DRY AIR ALTHOUGH WITH A LAYER OF
60-70 PCT RH AROUND 850 MB.  EXPECT FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 50S...SO THIS SHOULD WELL REPRESENT
OUR MINS SUNDAY NIGHT. NORMAL WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LARGER CITIES
MAY LINGER AROUND 60.

MONDAY
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.  WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TO START THE DAY WITH SOLAR HEATING AND
FULL MIXING.  THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW LOCAL SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP.  MIXING LAYER TEMPS WILL WORK OFF OF 11-12C...SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH AROUND 80...COOLER IN THE HIGHLANDS AND
COAST.

UPPER LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS WITH COLD POOL ALOFT.  500 MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO AROUND -16C.  AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST GROWTH IN OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.  MODEL CAPES
REACH 1000 J/KG WITH PATCHES OF 1500 J...TOTAL TOTALS 50-55 AND WET
BULB ZERO 8500-9000 FT.  LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
TSTMS WITH HAIL POTENTIAL.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
UPPER TROF AND COLD POOL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
SURFACE MAX TEMPS. BEST INSTABILITY AND CLOUD GROWTH SHOULD BE IN
OUR NORTHERN AREAS...UNDER THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT.  WE WILL GO WITH
DIURNAL CLOUD CYCLE EACH DAY. BASED ON 00Z GLOBAL AND 00Z ECMWF WE
WILL GO WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN MOS INDICATES ON WEDNESDAY.  FOR POPS
WE WILL GO WITH CHANCE NORTH AND SLGT CHANCE EXTREME SOUTH
TUESDAY...AND 5-10 PCT LOWER WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY
PER THE MODELS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVING OFFSHORE FRIDAY. IF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURS THEN IT WILL
BRING QUITE A CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER.  FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH CLEAR
OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO POPS.  TEMPS MIX FROM 12C THURSDAY
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LOWER 80S...MAYBE MID 80S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST AND WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE OVER US...TEMPS
WOULD MIX FROM APPROX 16C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. SCT SHRA/WDLY SCT TSRA BOS-MHT GENERALLY FROM 17Z-18Z. W
SFC WINDS G25 KT 18Z-00Z.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY MONDAY-TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.  ALSO AREAS OF
IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON
E MA COAST AND SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED ARD 915 AM FOR BOS HARBOR AND THE
NR SHORE WATERS PYM-NBT. MAX GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR 3PM-6PM TODAY.

WILL SEE SW WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. LOW LEVEL 1000-850MB
LAPSE RATES DO NOT SUPPORT SUFFICIENT MIXING ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS
UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS DRIER DEWPOINT AIR
FINALLY ADVECTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BETWEEN 20Z AND 08Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS. INCREASING SW FETCH COULD BRING 5 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS AT THAT TIME.

SUNDAY...SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR SHORE. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG/STRAUSS 1146A
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS 1146A
MARINE...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS 1146A

000
FXUS61 KOKX 041518
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1118 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY...AND AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE MAY RETURN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND CLIPPER LOW NORTH OF NY STATE WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EAST TODAY INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. DEEP NW
FLOW AND BEST COLD POOL INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY...WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AREAWIDE...WARMEST NY/NJ METRO AND COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT IN WAKE OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES LATE FROM DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE TN VALLEY. CANADIAN
AIRMASS ADVECTS IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOD FRONT THIS EVENING. THEN
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WILL RUN
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS...FALLING INTO
THE 50S. PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S IN THE PINE BARRENS AND NORTHERN
VALLEYS.

NEXT PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL HAVE AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO ON SUNDAY AND DIGGING TOWARDS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK E ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THEN
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING ANY PHASING OF THESE
TWO IMPULSES...BUT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. WITHOUT PHASING...WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUN WILL
PASS WELL SOUTH OF NYC/LONG ISLAND LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT. IF THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WERE TO PHASE THIS WOULD DIG
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH...BRINGING THE LOW
FURTHER NORTH WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY SUN NIGHT. BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THAT OCCURRING. WILL CONTINUE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR SUN
EVE/SUN NIGHT BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY AND CLOSEST APPROACH.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY DAY ON SUN WITH PARTY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY HIGH AND MID DECK CLOUDS. BACKING FLOW ON
SUN WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S INTERIOR...MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON MON. UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR S AND E THIS FEATURE DIGS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE AFTERNOON SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NW 1/2 OF CWA. TEMPS RUNNING NEAR SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...BRINGING US LOWER-END
POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST OVERALL CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LOOK TO BE DIURNAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RIDGING ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. DRY WEATHER
THEREFORE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START...THEN WARMING ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN
THE PERIOD WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR...WITH W-NW FLOW GUSTING TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...
UNCOMMON FOR EARLY JULY. COASTAL TERMINALS COULD BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE
SOME VARIABILITY IN DIRECTION BETWEEN SW-W THIS MORNING...AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN WITH A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT THAN
INLAND TERMINALS ONCE DAYTIME HEATING TRANSPORTS STRONGER WINDS DOWN
FROM ALOFT. HAVE ADJUSTED FOR TYPICAL MOS LOW EARLY EVENING SPEED
BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF POST-FRONTAL COOL AIR ADVECTION SITUATION...AND
HELD ONTO STRONGER WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 01Z-02Z...THEN SETTLED THINGS
DOWN TO UNDER 10 KT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON MON...THEN A
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE TUE-WED...VIA DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
APPROACH.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY W-NW FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
15-20 KT WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE NEAR SHORE
JUST DOWNWIND OF BETTER VERTICAL MIXING OVER THE NYC URBAN HEAT
ISLAND. ISSUING SCA WOULD BE OVERKILL GIVEN BRIEF EXPECTED
COVERAGE/DURATION OF ANY 25-KT GUSTS.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES IN
THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORE CONVECTIVE PRECIP
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG
HYDROLOGY...NV

000
FXUS61 KALY 041454
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1054 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY
GIVING US A DRY DAY...BUT THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA...BUT
MAINLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. COLD ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER LOW IS HELPING ADVECT SOME MOISTURE
OFF THE GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN THE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS. WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE HELPING SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO SEE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPE.
STILL...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AROUND 1.5 SD BELOW
NORMAL...SUGGESTS THAT WITH MAXIMUM SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH CURRENT FORECASTED TEMPERATURES. SO WITH CLOUD
COVER...DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS. WORDED SCATTERED SPRINKLES IN SOME
AREAS...REPLACING SHOWER WORDING AS TO NOT OVERSTATE THE RAIN
CHANCES. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

PREV AFD BELOW...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND CRESTS ACROSS FA. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY FOR EARLY JULY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80 WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PCPN
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE DURING THE DAY AND
CAPES VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT AND H10-H8 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EITHER
VERY WEAK OR LACKING ALL TOGETHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO HOLD THROUGH 12Z AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL IMPACT THE
REGION AS IT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD OF FA MONDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS CLOSER TO LOW CENTER. HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS BEST LIS
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE BETWEEN 18Z MON AND 00Z TUESDAY AND
SB CAPES GENERALLY 400-1000 J/KG OFF NAM WITH A FEW POCKETS OVER
1500 J/KG ACROSS SE PORTION OF FA. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT OF HAIL...BUT WITH WBZ HEIGHTS MORE LIKE
APRIL THAN JULY WITH A RANGE OF 5.5 TO 8 KFT ACROSS FA AT 00Z
TUESDAY WOULD EXPECT MOST OF HAIL TO BE SMALL. TOO FAR INTO THE
FUTURE TO PUT ENHANCED WORDING IN GRIDS BUT WILL MAKE MENTION IN
HWO OF SMALL HAIL THREAT. H8 WINDS VERY LIGHT 5 TO 15 KTS...H5
WINDS ONLY 20-35 KTS AND 300 MB JET SE OF FA LEAVING FA IN WRONG
QUAD (LR)OF EXITING JET...THUS NOT EXPECTING A WIND THREAT FROM
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND
80 SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY RESULTING IN
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY EVENING OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE IN AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY STARTING THURSDAY...AND WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT
WILL BE A BIT COOL TUESDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW AND MID
50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW 70S TO
THE LOW 80S WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY. IT WILL
THEN BECOME A BIT ON THE SULTRY SIDE WITH LOWS 55 TO 65 THURSDAY
NIGHT WARMING INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 ON FRIDAY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S BY MID AFTERNOON AND HEAT INDEXES 90 TO 95 IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS LAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH WAS
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. FOR SEVERAL HOURS THE CIG AT KALB
KALB WILL BE SCT-BKN025. WE FEEL SCT025 WILL BE THE PREVAILING
LOW CLOUDS UNDER A MIDLEVEL DECK. SUBSIDENCE OFF THE HIGH
CATSKILLS WILL KEEP THE CIG AT KPOU VFR WITH BKN050 WITH KGFL
BEING BARELY VFR AT BKN040. MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY BE EXPECTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING
AND CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...INCLUDING ALL 3 TAF
SITES...SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY NOON...WITH SCT050 BKN150-250
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WNW TODAY AND WILL BE 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20 MPH...PERHAPS A FEW KTS HIGHER AT KALB WHERE THE FUNNELING
EFFECT OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TENDS TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE
WESTERLY WINDS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING
AND WINDS DIMINISH...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE IN A FEW
AREAS INCLUDING KGFL AND OVER BODIES OF WATER.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN PM.
TUE/WED...VFR...PSSBL EARLY AM FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT
MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY GIVING US A DRY DAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TODAY...RISE TO
90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH...WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT AND WEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE UPPER
LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE DECREASING
CLOUDS AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY
AND DRY...WHICH WILL LET THE GROUND DRY OUT SOME. ANOTHER LOW
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE GROUND SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
DRY ENOUGH THAT FLOODING WILL NOT BE A CONCERN AS IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF WARM AND SUMMER LIKE WEATHER
WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

RIVERS HAVE RECEDED FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEK. THE
STORMS YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT DID NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL SO THEY HAD LITTLE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 041321
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
921 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING
IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DAYTIME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
915 AM: GRIDS WARMED SLIGHTLY. ADDED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE T
PTN OF S NH AND NE MASS TODAY AND TRIMMED THE POPS ON THE SRN FLANK S
OF THE MA PIKE. PRODUCTS POSTED.

845 AM: EXAMINING ALB SOUNDING FOR 80/57 MIDDAY AND THERE IS A RISK OF A
TSTM NE MA AND S NH. IF THEY DEVELOP... WE COULD SEE IT STRONG. MAX
TT TDY IN SNE BE CLOSE TO 83F COASTAL PLAIN AND VALLEYS AND WILL
ADJUST SHORTLY.  HAVE BEEN IN TOUCH WITH SPC.


815 AM UPDATED GRIDS/NOWCAST/ZFP PRODUCTS FOR HIGHER GUSTS.
ALREADY RUNNING 20-23 KTS IN PARTS OF OUR CWA.

TODAY...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE...LAST ONE FOR THIS LONG WAVE
TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH BAY (CYYB) ONTARIO PROVINCE CANADA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD SHEAR VORTICITY NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. COLDEST H5 TEMPS FROM -14 TO -16C
ALSO LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN
MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. BRIEF MARGINAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BECOME CO-LOCATED WITH COLDEST H5 TEMPS LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.
THEN DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERALL CONFINED CHANCE POPS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TODAY.

GENERALLY MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND IT WILL BECOME BREEZY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS...MID 70S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT....
COOL AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MAVMOS GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK H5 RIDGING!
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL
NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW GENERALLY DRY AIR ALTHOUGH WITH A LAYER OF
60-70 PCT RH AROUND 850 MB.  EXPECT FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 50S...SO THIS SHOULD WELL REPRESENT
OUR MINS SUNDAY NIGHT. NORMAL WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LARGER CITIES
MAY LINGER AROUND 60.

MONDAY
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.  WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TO START THE DAY WITH SOLAR HEATING AND
FULL MIXING.  THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW LOCAL SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP.  MIXING LAYER TEMPS WILL WORK OFF OF 11-12C...SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH AROUND 80...COOLER IN THE HIGHLANDS AND
COAST.

UPPER LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS WITH COLD POOL ALOFT.  500 MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO AROUND -16C.  AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST GROWTH IN OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.  MODEL CAPES
REACH 1000 J/KG WITH PATCHES OF 1500 J...TOTAL TOTALS 50-55 AND WET
BULB ZERO 8500-9000 FT.  LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
TSTMS WITH HAIL POTENTIAL.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
UPPER TROF AND COLD POOL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
SURFACE MAX TEMPS. BEST INSTABILITY AND CLOUD GROWTH SHOULD BE IN
OUR NORTHERN AREAS...UNDER THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT.  WE WILL GO WITH
DIURNAL CLOUD CYCLE EACH DAY. BASED ON 00Z GLOBAL AND 00Z ECMWF WE
WILL GO WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN MOS INDICATES ON WEDNESDAY.  FOR POPS
WE WILL GO WITH CHANCE NORTH AND SLGT CHANCE EXTREME SOUTH
TUESDAY...AND 5-10 PCT LOWER WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY
PER THE MODELS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVING OFFSHORE FRIDAY. IF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURS THEN IT WILL
BRING QUITE A CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER.  FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH CLEAR
OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO POPS.  TEMPS MIX FROM 12C THURSDAY
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LOWER 80S...MAYBE MID 80S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST AND WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE OVER US...TEMPS
WOULD MIX FROM APPROX 16C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. SCT SHRA/WDLY SCT TSRA BOS-MHT GENERALLY FROM 14Z-18Z.
W SFC WINDS G25 KT 18Z-00Z. TEMPO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 11Z THIS
MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES CAPE AND ISLANDS TERMINALS AND
SOME OF THE LOW LYING INTERIOR SECTIONS EXCLUDING THE TERMINAL SITES.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY MONDAY-TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.  ALSO AREAS OF
IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON
E MA COAST AND SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED ARD 915 AM FOR BOS HARBOR AND THE
NR SHORE WATERS PYM-NBT.

WILL SEE SW WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. LOW LEVEL 1000-850MB
LAPSE RATES DO NOT SUPPORT SUFFICIENT MIXING ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS
UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS DRIER DEWPOINT AIR
FINALLY ADVECTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BETWEEN 20Z AND 08Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS. INCREASING SW FETCH COULD BRING 5 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS AT THAT TIME.

SUNDAY...SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR SHORE. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WST DATA IS NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE ASOS...COMMS PBLM. TICKETS OPEN.
PVD PBLM FIXED.
&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG/STRAUSS 918A
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS
MARINE...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS 918A
EQUIPMENT...DRAG 918A

000
FXUS61 KBOX 041250
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
850 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING
IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DAYTIME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
845 AM: EXAMINING ALB SOUND FOR 80/57 MIDDAY AND THERE IS A RISK OF A
TSTM NE MA AND S NH. IF THEY DEVELOP... WE COULD SEE IT STRONG. MAX
TT TDY IN SNE BE CLOSE TO 83F COASTAL PLAIN AND VALLEYS AND WILL
ADJUST SHORTLY.  HAVE BEEN IN TOUCH WITH SPC.


815 AM UPDATED GRIDS/NOWCAST/ZFP PRODUCTS FOR HIGHER GUSTS.
ALREADY RUNNING 20-23 KTS IN PARTS OF OUR CWA.

TODAY...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE...LAST ONE FOR THIS LONG WAVE
TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH BAY (CYYB) ONTARIO PROVINCE CANADA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD SHEAR VORTICITY NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. COLDEST H5 TEMPS FROM -14 TO -16C
ALSO LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN
MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. BRIEF MARGINAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BECOME CO-LOCATED WITH COLDEST H5 TEMPS LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.
THEN DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERALL CONFINED CHANCE POPS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TODAY.

GENERALLY MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND IT WILL BECOME BREEZY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS...MID 70S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT....
COOL AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MAVMOS GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK H5 RIDGING!
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL
NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW GENERALLY DRY AIR ALTHOUGH WITH A LAYER OF
60-70 PCT RH AROUND 850 MB.  EXPECT FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 50S...SO THIS SHOULD WELL REPRESENT
OUR MINS SUNDAY NIGHT. NORMAL WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LARGER CITIES
MAY LINGER AROUND 60.

MONDAY
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.  WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TO START THE DAY WITH SOLAR HEATING AND
FULL MIXING.  THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW LOCAL SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP.  MIXING LAYER TEMPS WILL WORK OFF OF 11-12C...SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH AROUND 80...COOLER IN THE HIGHLANDS AND
COAST.

UPPER LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS WITH COLD POOL ALOFT.  500 MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO AROUND -16C.  AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST GROWTH IN OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.  MODEL CAPES
REACH 1000 J/KG WITH PATCHES OF 1500 J...TOTAL TOTALS 50-55 AND WET
BULB ZERO 8500-9000 FT.  LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
TSTMS WITH HAIL POTENTIAL.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
UPPER TROF AND COLD POOL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
SURFACE MAX TEMPS. BEST INSTABILITY AND CLOUD GROWTH SHOULD BE IN
OUR NORTHERN AREAS...UNDER THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT.  WE WILL GO WITH
DIURNAL CLOUD CYCLE EACH DAY. BASED ON 00Z GLOBAL AND 00Z ECMWF WE
WILL GO WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN MOS INDICATES ON WEDNESDAY.  FOR POPS
WE WILL GO WITH CHANCE NORTH AND SLGT CHANCE EXTREME SOUTH
TUESDAY...AND 5-10 PCT LOWER WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY
PER THE MODELS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVING OFFSHORE FRIDAY. IF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURS THEN IT WILL
BRING QUITE A CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER.  FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH CLEAR
OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO POPS.  TEMPS MIX FROM 12C THURSDAY
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LOWER 80S...MAYBE MID 80S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST AND WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE OVER US...TEMPS
WOULD MIX FROM APPROX 16C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. SCT SHRA/WDLY SCT TSRA BOS-MHT GENERALLY FROM 14Z-18Z.
W SFC WINDS G25 KT 18Z-00Z. TEMPO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 11Z THIS
MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES CAPE AND ISLANDS TERMINALS AND
SOME OF THE LOW LYING INTERIOR SECTIONS EXCLUDING THE TERMINAL SITES.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY MONDAY-TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.  ALSO AREAS OF
IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT NEAR SHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE SW WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. LOW LEVEL
1000-850MB LAPSE RATES DO NOT SUPPORT SUFFICIENT MIXING ACROSS THE
OPEN WATERS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS DRIER
DEWPOINT AIR FINALLY ADVECTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. SCATTERED 25 KT GUSTS AND WILL PROBABLY ISSUE SCA FOR PARTS OF
E MA COAST AROUND 930AM...NEAR SHORE PORTION INCLUDING BOS HARBOR.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BETWEEN 20Z AND 08Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS. INCREASING SW FETCH COULD BRING 5 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS AT THAT TIME.

SUNDAY...SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR SHORE. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG/STRAUSS 849A
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS
MARINE...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 041236
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
836 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING
IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DAYTIME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
815 AM UPDATED GRIDS/NOWCAST/ZFP PRODUCTS FOR HIGHER GUSTS.
ALREADY RUNNING 20-23 KTS IN PARTS OF OUR CWA.

TODAY...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE...LAST ONE FOR THIS LONG WAVE
TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH BAY (CYYB) ONTARIO PROVINCE CANADA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD SHEAR VORTICITY NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. COLDEST H5 TEMPS FROM -14 TO -16C
ALSO LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN
MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. BRIEF MARGINAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BECOME CO-LOCATED WITH COLDEST H5 TEMPS LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.
THEN DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERALL CONFINED CHANCE POPS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TODAY.

GENERALLY MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND IT WILL BECOME BREEZY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS...MID 70S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT....
COOL AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MAVMOS GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK H5 RIDGING!
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL
NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW GENERALLY DRY AIR ALTHOUGH WITH A LAYER OF
60-70 PCT RH AROUND 850 MB.  EXPECT FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 50S...SO THIS SHOULD WELL REPRESENT
OUR MINS SUNDAY NIGHT. NORMAL WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LARGER CITIES
MAY LINGER AROUND 60.

MONDAY
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.  WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TO START THE DAY WITH SOLAR HEATING AND
FULL MIXING.  THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW LOCAL SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP.  MIXING LAYER TEMPS WILL WORK OFF OF 11-12C...SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH AROUND 80...COOLER IN THE HIGHLANDS AND
COAST.

UPPER LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS WITH COLD POOL ALOFT.  500 MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO AROUND -16C.  AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST GROWTH IN OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.  MODEL CAPES
REACH 1000 J/KG WITH PATCHES OF 1500 J...TOTAL TOTALS 50-55 AND WET
BULB ZERO 8500-9000 FT.  LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
TSTMS WITH HAIL POTENTIAL.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
UPPER TROF AND COLD POOL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
SURFACE MAX TEMPS. BEST INSTABILITY AND CLOUD GROWTH SHOULD BE IN
OUR NORTHERN AREAS...UNDER THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT.  WE WILL GO WITH
DIURNAL CLOUD CYCLE EACH DAY. BASED ON 00Z GLOBAL AND 00Z ECMWF WE
WILL GO WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN MOS INDICATES ON WEDNESDAY.  FOR POPS
WE WILL GO WITH CHANCE NORTH AND SLGT CHANCE EXTREME SOUTH
TUESDAY...AND 5-10 PCT LOWER WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY
PER THE MODELS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVING OFFSHORE FRIDAY. IF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURS THEN IT WILL
BRING QUITE A CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER.  FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH CLEAR
OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO POPS.  TEMPS MIX FROM 12C THURSDAY
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LOWER 80S...MAYBE MID 80S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST AND WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE OVER US...TEMPS
WOULD MIX FROM APPROX 16C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. SCT SHRA/WDLY SCT TSRA BOS-MHT GENERALLY FROM 14Z-18Z.
W SFC WINDS G25 KT 18Z-00Z. TEMPO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 11Z THIS
MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES CAPE AND ISLANDS TERMINALS AND
SOME OF THE LOW LYING INTERIOR SECTIONS EXCLUDING THE TERMINAL SITES.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY MONDAY-TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.  ALSO AREAS OF
IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT NEAR SHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE SW WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. LOW LEVEL
1000-850MB LAPSE RATES DO NOT SUPPORT SUFFICIENT MIXING ACROSS THE
OPEN WATERS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS DRIER
DEWPOINT AIR FINALLY ADVECTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. SCATTERED 25 KT GUSTS AND WILL PROBABLY ISSUE SCA FOR PARTS OF
E MA COAST AROUND 930AM...NEAR SHORE PORTION INCLUDING BOS HARBOR.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BETWEEN 20Z AND 08Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS. INCREASING SW FETCH COULD BRING 5 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE SE OUTER WATERS AT THAT TIME.

SUNDAY...SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR SHORE. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...DRAG/STRAUSS 835A
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS
MARINE...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS 835A

000
FXUS61 KOKX 041120
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
720 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY...AND AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE MAY RETURN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND CLIPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO THIS
MORNING DIVES INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. DEEP NW
FLOW AND BEST COLD POOL INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY...WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE...WARMEST NY/NJ METRO AND COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT IN WAKE OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES LATE FROM DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE TN VALLEY. CANADIAN
AIRMASS ADVECTS IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOD FRONT THIS EVENING. THEN
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WILL RUN
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS...FALLING INTO
THE 50S. PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S IN THE PINE BARRENS AND NORTHERN
VALLEYS.

NEXT PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL HAVE AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO ON SUNDAY AND DIGGING TOWARDS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK E ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THEN
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING ANY PHASING OF THESE
TWO IMPULSES...BUT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. WITHOUT PHASING...WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUN WILL
PASS WELL SOUTH OF NYC/LONG ISLAND LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT. IF THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WERE TO PHASE THIS WOULD DIG
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH...BRINGING THE LOW
FURTHER NORTH WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY SUN NIGHT. BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THAT OCCURRING. WILL CONTINUE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR SUN
EVE/SUN NIGHT BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY AND CLOSEST APPROACH.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY DAY ON SUN WITH PARTY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY HIGH AND MID DECK CLOUDS. BACKING FLOW ON
SUN WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S INTERIOR...MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON MON. UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR S AND E THIS FEATURE DIGS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE AFTERNOON SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NW 1/2 OF CWA. TEMPS RUNNING NEAR SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...BRINGING US LOWER-END
POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST OVERALL CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LOOK TO BE DIURNAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RIDGING ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. DRY WEATHER
THEREFORE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START...THEN WARMING ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN
THE PERIOD WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR...WITH W-NW FLOW GUSTING TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...
UNCOMMON FOR EARLY JULY. COASTAL TERMINALS COULD BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE
SOME VARIABILITY IN DIRECTION BETWEEN SW-W THIS MORNING...AND
EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN WITH A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT THAN
INLAND TERMINALS ONCE DAYTIME HEATING TRANSPORTS STRONGER WINDS DOWN
FROM ALOFT. HAVE ADJUSTED FOR TYPICAL MOS LOW EARLY EVENING SPEED
BIAS IN THIS TYPE OF POST-FRONTAL COOL AIR ADVECTION SITUATION...AND
HELD ONTO STRONGER WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 01Z-02Z...THEN SETTLED THINGS
DOWN TO UNDER 10 KT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON MON...THEN A
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE TUE-WED...VIA DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
APPROACH.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY W-NW FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
15-20 KT WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE NEAR SHORE
JUST DOWNWIND OF BETTER VERTICAL MIXING OVER THE NYC URBAN HEAT
ISLAND. GIVEN NUMBER OF RECREATIONAL BOATERS WHO WILL BE OUT ON THE
WATERS THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY...ISSUED MARINE WX STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION. ISSUING SCA WOULD BE OVERKILL GIVEN BRIEF
EXPECTED COVERAGE/DURATION OF ANY 25-KT GUSTS.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES IN
THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORE CONVECTIVE PRECIP
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM/HYDROLOGY...NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION/MARINE...BG

000
FXUS61 KALY 041058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT
MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY GIVING US A DRY DAY...BUT THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH PCPN IN THIS LONG
STRETCH WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS CONFINED TO THIS MORNING. SB
CAPES ARE ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST THUS WILL ONLY MENTION
SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH TO CHANCE POPS NORTH THIS
MORNING AND THEN MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF FA THIS AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. IT WILL
ACTUALLY FEEL RELATIVELY COOL TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEPARTING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FA SHOULD PRODUCE
SOME GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH COMMON.
THIS WILL ACTUALLY START TO DRY UP SOME OF THE SATURATED GROUND.
HAVE HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH MORE SUN THAN
RECENT DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND CRESTS ACROSS FA. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY FOR EARLY JULY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80 WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PCPN
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE DURING THE DAY AND
CAPES VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT AND H10-H8 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EITHER
VERY WEAK OR LACKING ALL TOGETHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO HOLD THROUGH 12Z AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL IMPACT THE
REGION AS IT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD OF FA MONDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS CLOSER TO LOW CENTER. HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS BEST LIS
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE BETWEEN 18Z MON AND 00Z TUESDAY AND
SB CAPES GENERALLY 400-1000 J/KG OFF NAM WITH A FEW POCKETS OVER
1500 J/KG ACROSS SE PORTION OF FA. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT OF HAIL...BUT WITH WBZ HEIGHTS MORE LIKE
APRIL THAN JULY WITH A RANGE OF 5.5 TO 8 KFT ACROSS FA AT 00Z
TUESDAY WOULD EXPECT MOST OF HAIL TO BE SMALL. TOO FAR INTO THE
FUTURE TO PUT ENHANCED WORDING IN GRIDS BUT WILL MAKE MENTION IN
HWO OF SMALL HAIL THREAT. H8 WINDS VERY LIGHT 5 TO 15 KTS...H5
WINDS ONLY 20-35 KTS AND 300 MB JET SE OF FA LEAVING FA IN WRONG
QUAD (LR)OF EXITING JET...THUS NOT EXPECTING A WIND THREAT FROM
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND
80 SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY RESULTING IN
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY EVENING OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE IN AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY STARTING THURSDAY...AND WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT
WILL BE A BIT COOL TUESDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW AND MID
50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW 70S TO
THE LOW 80S WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY. IT WILL
THEN BECOME A BIT ON THE SULTRY SIDE WITH LOWS 55 TO 65 THURSDAY
NIGHT WARMING INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 ON FRIDAY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S BY MID AFTERNOON AND HEAT INDEXES 90 TO 95 IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS LAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WEST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH WAS
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. FOR SEVERAL HOURS THE CIG AT KALB
KALB WILL BE SCT-BKN025. WE FEEL SCT025 WILL BE THE PREVAILING
LOW CLOUDS UNDER A MIDLEVEL DECK. SUBSIDENCE OFF THE HIGH
CATSKILLS WILL KEEP THE CIG AT KPOU VFR WITH BKN050 WITH KGFL
BEING BARELY VFR AT BKN040. MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY BE EXPECTED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING
AND CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...INCLUDING ALL 3 TAF
SITES...SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY NOON...WITH SCT050 BKN150-250
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE WNW TODAY AND WILL BE 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20 MPH...PERHAPS A FEW KTS HIGHER AT KALB WHERE THE FUNNELING
EFFECT OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TENDS TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE
WESTERLY WINDS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING
AND WINDS DIMINISH...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE IN A FEW
AREAS INCLUDING KGFL AND OVER BODIES OF WATER.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN PM.
TUE/WED...VFR...PSSBL EARLY AM FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT
MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY GIVING US A DRY DAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TODAY...RISE TO
90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH...WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT AND WEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE UPPER
LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE DECREASING
CLOUDS AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY
AND DRY...WHICH WILL LET THE GROUND DRY OUT SOME. ANOTHER LOW
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE GROUND SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
DRY ENOUGH THAT FLOODING WILL NOT BE A CONCERN AS IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF WARM AND SUMMER LIKE WEATHER
WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

RIVERS HAVE RECEDED FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEK. THE
STORMS YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT DID NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL SO THEY HAD LITTLE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/RCK
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KALY 040829
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
429 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT
MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY GIVING US A DRY DAY...BUT THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH PCPN IN THIS LONG
STRETCH WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS CONFINED TO THIS MORNING. SB
CAPES ARE ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST THUS WILL ONLY MENTION
SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH TO CHANCE POPS NORTH THIS
MORNING AND THEN MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF FA THIS AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE 00Z WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. IT WILL
ACTUALLY FEEL RELATIVELY COOL TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEPARTING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FA SHOULD PRODUCE
SOME GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH COMMON.
THIS WILL ACTUALLY START TO DRY UP SOME OF THE SATURATED GROUND.
HAVE HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH MORE SUN THAN
RECENT DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND CRESTS ACROSS FA. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY FOR EARLY JULY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 80 WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PCPN
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE DURING THE DAY AND
CAPES VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT AND H10-H8 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EITHER
VERY WEAK OR LACKING ALL TOGETHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO HOLD THROUGH 12Z AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST. EXPECT LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL IMPACT THE
REGION AS IT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND PIVOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD OF FA MONDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT HAVE LIKELY
POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS CLOSER TO LOW CENTER. HAVE
INCLUDED THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS BEST LIS
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE BETWEEN 18Z MON AND 00Z TUESDAY AND
SB CAPES GENERALLY 400-1000 J/KG OFF NAM WITH A FEW POCKETS OVER
1500 J/KG ACROSS SE PORTION OF FA. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT OF HAIL...BUT WITH WBZ HEIGHTS MORE LIKE
APRIL THAN JULY WITH A RANGE OF 5.5 TO 8 KFT ACROSS FA AT 00Z
TUESDAY WOULD EXPECT MOST OF HAIL TO BE SMALL. TOO FAR INTO THE
FUTURE TO PUT ENHANCED WORDING IN GRIDS BUT WILL MAKE MENTION IN
HWO OF SMALL HAIL THREAT. H8 WINDS VERY LIGHT 5 TO 15 KTS...H5
WINDS ONLY 20-35 KTS AND 300 MB JET SE OF FA LEAVING FA IN WRONG
QUAD (LR)OF EXITING JET...THUS NOT EXPECTING A WIND THREAT FROM
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND
80 SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY RESULTING IN
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY EVENING OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE IN AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD
WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY STARTING THURSDAY...AND WITH IT
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT
WILL BE A BIT COOL TUESDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW AND MID
50S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S...WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW 70S TO
THE LOW 80S WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY. IT WILL
THEN BECOME A BIT ON THE SULTRY SIDE WITH LOWS 55 TO 65 THURSDAY
NIGHT WARMING INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 ON FRIDAY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S BY MID AFTERNOON AND HEAT INDEXES 90 TO 95 IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE HUDSON/MOHAWK/CHAMPLAIN
CORRIDORS WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY AOA 4000 FT ASL. THE MAJOR
EXCEPTION APPEARS TO BE THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE LOW CLOUDS 1500
TO 2500 FT ASL WERE CAUSING MVFR/IFR CIGS OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN
IN THAT AREA...AND WITH MVF CIGS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE
BERKSHIRES AND GREEN MTNS OF SOUTHERN VT. LITTLE CHANGE IS
FORECAST THRU DAYBREAK ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VSBY
IN THE MID HUDSON REGION...INCLUDING KPOU...FROM RADIATION FOG.
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING AT KGFL AND
KALB. WINDS WERE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 KTS IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND WESTERLY 5 TO 8 KTS IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ARE
LIKELY TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY IN THE PREDAWN HOURS.

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE DAY TODAY EXCEPT
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
RESULT IN MVFR CIGS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE VFR MINS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT
SOME DURING THE DAY TODAY TO SCT050 UNDER A BKN DECK OF 100-250
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE LOWER CLOUDS GONE BY
EVENING UNDER SOME SCTD CIRRUS. WINDS TODAY WILL BE WESTERLY
AND PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
ESPECIALLY DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO KALB DUE TO THE FUNNELING
EFFECT OF THE TERRAIN. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
TO LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN PM.
TUE/WED...VFR...PSSBL EARLY AM FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT
MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY GIVING US A DRY DAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TODAY...RISE TO
90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT ON
SUNDAY.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH...WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT AND WEST
AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS THE UPPER
LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE DECREASING
CLOUDS AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY
AND DRY...WHICH WILL LET THE GROUND DRY OUT SOME. ANOTHER LOW
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE GROUND SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
DRY ENOUGH THAT FLOODING WILL NOT BE A CONCERN AS IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF WARM AND SUMMER LIKE WEATHER
WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

RIVERS HAVE RECEDED FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEK. THE
STORMS YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT DID NOT HAVE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL SO THEY HAD LITTLE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/RCK
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KBOX 040806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING
IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE AREA SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING DAYTIME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE...LAST ONE FOR THIS LONG WAVE
TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH BAY (CYYB) ONTARIO PROVINCE CANADA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD SHEAR VORTICITY NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. COLDEST H5 TEMPS FROM -14 TO -16C
ALSO LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN
MASSACHUSETTS TODAY. BRIEF MARGINAL LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BECOME CO-LOCATED WITH COLDEST H5 TEMPS LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.
THEN DRIER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERALL CONFINED CHANCE POPS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS TODAY.

GENERALLY MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND IT WILL BECOME BREEZY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMS...MID 70S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT....
COOL AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS BY MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MAVMOS GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEAK H5 RIDGING!
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL
NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW GENERALLY DRY AIR ALTHOUGH WITH A LAYER OF
60-70 PCT RH AROUND 850 MB.  EXPECT FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 50S...SO THIS SHOULD WELL REPRESENT
OUR MINS SUNDAY NIGHT. NORMAL WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LARGER CITIES
MAY LINGER AROUND 60.

MONDAY
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.  WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TO START THE DAY WITH SOLAR HEATING AND
FULL MIXING.  THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW LOCAL SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP.  MIXING LAYER TEMPS WILL WORK OFF OF 11-12C...SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH AROUND 80...COOLER IN THE HIGHLANDS AND
COAST.

UPPER LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS WITH COLD POOL ALOFT.  500 MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO AROUND -16C.  AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST GROWTH IN OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.  MODEL CAPES
REACH 1000 J/KG WITH PATCHES OF 1500 J...TOTAL TOTALS 50-55 AND WET
BULB ZERO 8500-9000 FT.  LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
TSTMS WITH HAIL POTENTIAL.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
UPPER TROF AND COLD POOL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
SURFACE MAX TEMPS. BEST INSTABILITY AND CLOUD GROWTH SHOULD BE IN
OUR NORTHERN AREAS...UNDER THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT.  WE WILL GO WITH
DIURNAL CLOUD CYCLE EACH DAY. BASED ON 00Z GLOBAL AND 00Z ECMWF WE
WILL GO WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN MOS INDICATES ON WEDNESDAY.  FOR POPS
WE WILL GO WITH CHANCE NORTH AND SLGT CHANCE EXTREME SOUTH
TUESDAY...AND 5-10 PCT LOWER WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY
PER THE MODELS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVING OFFSHORE FRIDAY. IF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURS THEN IT WILL
BRING QUITE A CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER.  FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH CLEAR
OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO POPS.  TEMPS MIX FROM 12C THURSDAY
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LOWER 80S...MAYBE MID 80S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST AND WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE OVER US...TEMPS
WOULD MIX FROM APPROX 16C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. SCT SHRA/WDLY SCT TSRA BOS-MHT GENERALLY FROM 14Z-18Z.
W SFC WINDS G25 KT 18Z-00Z. TEMPO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 11Z THIS
MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES CAPE AND ISLANDS TERMINALS AND
SOME OF THE LOW LYING INTERIOR SECTIONS EXCLUDING THE TERMINAL SITES.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY MONDAY-TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.  ALSO AREAS OF
IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT NEAR SHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL SEE SW WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. LOW LEVEL
1000-850MB LAPSE RATES DO NOT SUPPORT SUFFICIENT MIXING ACROSS THE
OPEN WATERS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS DRIER
DEWPOINT AIR FINALLY ADVECTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. SCATTERED 20-25 KT GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ON SCA CONDITIONS AS IT IS APPEARS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.

EXAMINED THE LATEST WNA GUIDANCE AND TRENDS. SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED TO
3 FT AT BUOY 44018 EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO BETWEEN 20Z AND 08Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
THE SE OUTER WATERS. INCREASING SW FETCH COULD BRING 5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE
SE OUTER WATERS AT THAT TIME.

SUNDAY...SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT NEAR SHORE. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAST ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/STRAUSS
MARINE...WTB/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 040755
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
355 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOVES TO QUEBEC SAT FORCING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA.  ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA SWINGS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING DAYTIME CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA. REDUCED OVERNIGHT
POPS FROM LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
SHORTLY.

PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS TONIGHT BUT LESS WIDESPREAD AND NOT AS DENSE AS PREVIOUS
NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THIS
WILL BRING AN AREA OF VERY COLD AIR ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR REGION...WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
TO BETWEEN -15C AND -17C.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7 C/KM ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHEAST MA.
AT THE SAME TIME THOUGH...DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW FROM MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY COMBINE WITH
INCREASING WIND FIELDS AND COLD AIR ALOFT.  THIS MAY BRING A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
BOTH THE GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 500
J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHEAST MA.  THEREFORE...WILL
INCLUDE A FEW HOURS OF CHANCE POPS IN THIS REGION AND QUICKLY TAPER
POPS DOWN SOUTHWESTWARD.  EITHER WAY THE MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY...OTHER THAN THE RISK FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND THIS FORECAST SINCE THERE IS A
RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW...BEFORE THE DRY AIR COMES RUSHING INTO THE
REGION.  HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHEAST MA FROM MID MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS...ANY RISK FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND A WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR.  IN FACT...WE EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
A DRY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT IS MAY BE A
BIT BREEZY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  THE DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL MAINLY INTO THE 50S...WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW GENERALLY DRY AIR ALTHOUGH WITH A LAYER OF
60-70 PCT RH AROUND 850 MB.  EXPECT FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM ARE IN THE 50S...SO THIS SHOULD WELL REPRESENT
OUR MINS SUNDAY NIGHT. NORMAL WARM SPOTS SUCH AS THE LARGER CITIES
MAY LINGER AROUND 60.

MONDAY
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.  WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TO START THE DAY WITH SOLAR HEATING AND
FULL MIXING.  THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW LOCAL SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP.  MIXING LAYER TEMPS WILL WORK OFF OF 11-12C...SO
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH AROUND 80...COOLER IN THE HIGHLANDS AND
COAST.

UPPER LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS WITH COLD POOL ALOFT.  500 MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO AROUND -16C.  AFTERNOON CUMULUS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGEST GROWTH IN OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.  MODEL CAPES
REACH 1000 J/KG WITH PATCHES OF 1500 J...TOTAL TOTALS 50-55 AND WET
BULB ZERO 8500-9000 FT.  LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
TSTMS WITH HAIL POTENTIAL.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
UPPER TROF AND COLD POOL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
SURFACE MAX TEMPS. BEST INSTABILITY AND CLOUD GROWTH SHOULD BE IN
OUR NORTHERN AREAS...UNDER THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT.  WE WILL GO WITH
DIURNAL CLOUD CYCLE EACH DAY. BASED ON 00Z GLOBAL AND 00Z ECMWF WE
WILL GO WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN MOS INDICATES ON WEDNESDAY.  FOR POPS
WE WILL GO WITH CHANCE NORTH AND SLGT CHANCE EXTREME SOUTH
TUESDAY...AND 5-10 PCT LOWER WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY
PER THE MODELS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVING OFFSHORE FRIDAY. IF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURS THEN IT WILL
BRING QUITE A CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER.  FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH CLEAR
OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO POPS.  TEMPS MIX FROM 12C THURSDAY
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LOWER 80S...MAYBE MID 80S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST AND WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE OVER US...TEMPS
WOULD MIX FROM APPROX 16C WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT. MAIN
CONCENTRATION AT 18Z IS FROM BDL-PVD AND SREF PROBS FOR CAPE>500 J/KG
IS CAPTURING THIS AREA VERY WELL. SREF SUGGESTS GREATEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF I95
CORRIDOR. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE
HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY TSTMS...OTHERWISE VFR CIGS EXPECTED.
MEANWHILE...STRATUS DECK SOUTH OF THE CAPE IS ERODING SO MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FMH-HYA-ACK.

TONIGHT...WDLY SCT MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. IFR ST/FOG MAY DEVELOP AT ACK BY 00Z...AND
OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS AND HYA/FMH AFT 06Z.

SATURDAY...LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ASSOCD WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
14-18Z...PRIMARILY MHT-ORH-BOS. RAPID DRYING OCCURRING AFT 18Z WITH
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY MONDAY-TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.  ALSO AREAS OF
IFR/LIFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
OTHERWISE...SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 2
AND 4 FEET.  HOWEVER...5 FOOT SEAS MAY FLIRT WITH THE OUTER-WATERS.

SATURDAY...ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS TO 5 FEET
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS...SO WILL HOIST A SCA IN THIS
REGION.  IN ADDITION...WESTERLY FLOW AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORT 20 TO
25 KNOT WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
CONSIDER A SCA FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO HOIST AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/STRAUSS
MARINE...WTB/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KOKX 040739
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
339 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY AND AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. RIDGING MAY BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND CLIPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO THIS
MORNING DIVES INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. DEEP NW
FLOW AND BEST COLD POOL INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY...WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE...WARMEST NY/NJ METRO AND COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT IN WAKE OF CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL HAVE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES LATE FROM DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE TN VALLEY. CANADIAN
AIRMASS ADVECTS IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOD FRONT THIS EVENING. THEN
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WILL RUN
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS...FALLING INTO
THE 50S. PERHAPS SOME UPPER 40S IN THE PINE BARRENS AND NORTHERN
VALLEYS.

NEXT PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL HAVE AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO ON SUNDAY AND DIGGING TOWARDS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK E ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THEN
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING ANY PHASING OF THESE
TWO IMPULSES...BUT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. WITHOUT PHASING...WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUN WILL
PASS WELL SOUTH OF NYC/LONG ISLAND LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT. IF THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WERE TO PHASE THIS WOULD DIG
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH...BRINGING THE LOW
FURTHER NORTH WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY SUN NIGHT. BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THAT OCCURRING. WILL CONTINUE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR SUN
EVE/SUN NIGHT BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY AND CLOSEST APPROACH.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY DAY ON SUN WITH PARTY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY HIGH AND MID DECK CLOUDS. BACKING FLOW ON
SUN WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S INTERIOR...MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON MON. UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR S AND E THIS FEATURE DIGS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE AFTERNOON SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NW 1/2 OF CWA. TEMPS RUNNING NEAR SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...BRINGING US LOWER-END
POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST OVERALL CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LOOK TO BE DIURNAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RIDGING ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. DRY WEATHER
THEREFORE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START...THEN WARMING ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN
THE PERIOD WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR. INCREASING NW ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FOG FORMATION...BUT
THOSE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH LIGHTER SFC WINDS COULD PRODUCE SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING (ABOUT
12Z) AT AREA TERMINALS OTHER THAN KJFK/KLGA/KEWR...TOO MARGINAL A
SITUATION TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

WITH NW FLOW GUSTING TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...DO NOT
EXPECT A TRUE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...THOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT
WINDS AT COASTAL TERMINALS BACKING SLIGHTLY MORE W IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KGON WHICH WILL LIE TO THE EAST OF A
DEVELOPING LEE SFC TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON MON...THEN A
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE TUE-WED...VIA DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
APPROACH.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONT PUSHES E OF THE AREA TODAY WITH GUSTY W-NW FLOW TAKING HOLD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN ITS WAKE...15-20 KT WITH AN
OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE JUST DOWNWIND OF BETTER
VERTICAL MIXING OVER THE NYC URBAN HEAT ISLAND. GIVEN NUMBER OF
RECREATIONAL BOATERS WHO WILL BE OUT ON THE WATERS THIS INDEPENDENCE
DAY HOLIDAY...ISSUING SCA FOR THIS WOULD BE OVERKILL BUT WILL STILL
ISSUE MARINE WX STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE SITUATION.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES IN
THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORE CONVECTIVE PRECIP
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG
HYDROLOGY...NV

000
FXUS61 KOKX 040612
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
212 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...THEN WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH FOR MONDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION IN
THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
LATE...MAINLY IN AREAS AWAY FROM NYC THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY...BUT
INCREASING WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK MAY WORK TO INHIBIT THIS
ESPECIALLY LATE. LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER/MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY. YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH RISING HEIGHTS
AND A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...NOT EXPECTING PRECIP. THIS IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES POPS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

SKIES WILL BE CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY...AND WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...PLEASANT WX ON TAP FOR THE HOLIDAY.

THE UPPER DISTURBANCE DEPARTS SAT NIGHT. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE TN VALLEY SAT NIGHT...AND WILL PASS SOUTH OF NYC/LONG
ISLAND SUN AFTERNOON. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP. IF THE LOW TRACKS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...THEN MAYBE SOME SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ON SUN WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO SAT.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON MON. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...BRINGING US LOWER-
END POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN RIGHT
NOW LOOK LIKE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
DRY WEATHER THEREFORE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START...THEN WARMING
ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR. INCREASING NW ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FOG FORMATION...BUT
THOSE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH LIGHTER SFC WINDS COULD PRODUCE SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING (ABOUT
12Z) AT AREA TERMINALS OTHER THAN KJFK/KLGA/KEWR...TOO MARGINAL A
SITUATION TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

WITH NW FLOW GUSTING TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...DO NOT
EXPECT A TRUE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...THOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT
WINDS AT COASTAL TERMINALS BACKING SLIGHTLY MORE W IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KGON WHICH WILL LIE TO THE EAST OF A
DEVELOPING LEE SFC TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON MON...THEN A
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE TUE-WED...VIA DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
APPROACH.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES DEPARTS TONIGHT...THEN HIGH PRES BRIEFLY PASSES THROUGH
THE WATERS ON SAT. PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN UP ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL 20-25 KT GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY JUST
DOWNWIND FROM THE IMMEDIATE NYC METRO AREA AND ALSO ON THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS...BUT WILL GENERALLY EXPECT SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS
INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A
FEW SETS TO REACH 5 FT IN A LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES IN
THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...BS
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN

000
FXUS61 KALY 040558
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
155 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT
MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY
BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EDT...A WEAK COLD FRONT...DENOTED BY A WIND SHIFT INTO
THE W/NW...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS ON THE NW SIDE...IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NW CT. OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WE EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE MOVING SE
ACROSS LITCHFIELD CO...WITH PERHAPS A FEW MORE DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN DUTCHESS CO BEFORE EXITING.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY...IN RESPONSE TO A COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE NW...AND SOME
OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE FLOW. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD WEAKEN UPON DRIFTING
SE...BUT MAY REDEVELOP WHEN REACHING THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN
VT...AND EVEN THE NORTHERN BERKS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES COULD
EVEN REACH VALLEY LOCALES N/W OF THE CAPITAL REGION AROUND OR PRIOR
TO MIDNIGHT. BASED ON THIS REASONING...WILL KEEP CHC POPS ACROSS
NORTHERNMOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHC WITHIN THE
VALLEYS...MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AND FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...WILL ONLY
KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF
ANY EXPECTED AFTER FROPA.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDDED DATABASE BASED ON RECENT
TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PER 1KM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITIES...SCT-
BKN CLOUD DECK WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION TRACKING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THESE CELLS ARE MOVING NEAR 20KTS WHICH CONTINUES
TO LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE LOCATION HENCE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS RATHER LIMITED AS THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A MID LEVEL
CAP INHIBITING THE PARCELS REACHED TOWARD THE -20C LEVEL. WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO BECOME
FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE REGION...WE WILL DECREASE POPS THIS
EVENING AND TREND EVEN LOWER OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
DACKS AND GREENS WHERE RESIDUAL UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND RATHER
MOIST LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE COLUMN COULD
TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO. DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE PTCLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 60F FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...FOR THE MOST PART...WILL BE DRY. SOME
SUBTLE FEATURES MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO WHICH IS NOT BEING
HANDLED WELL IN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE. H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT IS TRACKING EAST-
SOUTHEAST AND WILL BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID...COMBINING THE TIMING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS. THE LOCAL HIRES WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALSO SUGGESTS THIS NOTION AND WILL PLACE LOW POPS AT
THIS TIME. PERHAPS THE MOST SENSIBLE ELEMENT WILL BE THE WINDS AS
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS CLIMBING
TOWARD 5K FEET SHOULD MIX DOWN 20-25KT WINDS. FURTHERMORE...A
LITTLE FUNNELING DOWN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY MAY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WIND SPEED MAGNITUDES.

TRANQUIL SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE REGION ALTHOUGH SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO NEXT SHORT WAVE FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WILL INTRODUCE SOME VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AS
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS DO DECOUPLE AND OUR RATHER MOIST GROUND.

SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE SEEMS TO BE HANDLED RATHER
WELL IN THE CANADIAN MODEL /ALSO GUIDANCE FROM HPC SUGGESTS THIS
AS WELL/ WHICH BRINGS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THIS ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPS ALOFT COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO THE REGION. WILL
INCREASE POPS TO JUST ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE AND MONITOR TRENDS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE
AND RATHER FLAT SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER
TRANQUIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECT TO CONTINUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MONDAY
WILL BE AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED
BY A SHORTWAVE PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS WITH A SLGT CHC OF TS ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW
DISTURBANCES LEADING TO A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST...ALLOWING A SFC LOW
TO SKIRT TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA.  THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A SLGT CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE FA
THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD OFF ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE HUDSON/MOHAWK/CHAMPLAIN
CORRIDORS WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY AOA 4000 FT ASL. THE MAJOR
EXCEPTION APPEARS TO BE THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE LOW CLOUDS 1500
TO 2500 FT ASL WERE CAUSING MVFR/IFR CIGS OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN
IN THAT AREA...AND WITH MVF CIGS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVS OF THE
BERKSHIRES AND GREEN MTNS OF SOUTHERN VT. LITTLE CHANGE IS
FORECAST THRU DAYBREAK ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VISBY
IN THE MID HUDSON REGION...INCLUDING KPOU...FROM RADIATION FOG.
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING AT KGFL AND
KALB. WINDS WERE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 KTS IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND WESTERLY 5 TO 8 KTS IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ARE
LIKELY TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY IN THE PREDAWN HOURS.

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE DAY TODAY EXCEPT
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
RESULT IN MVFR CIGS OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE VFR MINS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT
SOME DURING THE DAY TODAY TO SCT050 UNDER A BKN DECK OF 100-250
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE LOWER CLOUDS GONE BY
EVENING UNDER SOME SCTD CIRRUS. WINDS TODAY WILL BE WESTERLY
AND PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
ESPECIALLY DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO KALB DUE TO THE FUNNELING
EFFECT OF THE TERRAIN. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
TO LESS THAN 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC OF -SHRA/-TSRA ESPCLLY IN PM.
TUE/WED...VFR...PSSBL EARLY AM FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS WITH SATURATED GROUND IN MOST AREAS WILL HOLD
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME DRYING WILL COMMENCE THIS WEEKEND.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT ON SATURDAY AND RECOVER TO
NEAR 100 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND WEST AT 10 TO 18 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. FLOW HAS INCREASED WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN STORMS MOVING ALONG. ALSO COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE CELLS
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED...SO FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. STILL...SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WHICH
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
POSSIBLE PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

RIVERS HAVE RECEDED IN WAKE OF RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL RISES ARE UNLIKELY SINCE ANY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT GREAT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO FALL OVER
ENTIRE RIVER BASINS.

FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HYDRO
IMPACTS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTAINING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE UNLIKELY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES IN.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE
QUITE UNCERTAIN AS TO THE TIMING...TRACK AND DURATION OF YET ANOTHER
CUT-OFF LOW THAT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCK
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...RCK
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV

000
FXUS61 KOKX 040347
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1147 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...THEN WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH FOR MONDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION IN
THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
JUST ABOUT ALL PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION...AND WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR.
UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT FORECASTS TO REFLECT THE LATEST
TRENDS...ALTHOUGH ANY CHANGED WERE MINOR AS THE TIMING IN THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST WAS EXCELLENT.

WARM MOIST CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO FOG FORMATION...BUT IT WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDANT ON WINDS. EXPECT PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY
AWAY FROM NYC AND ESPECIALLY IN AREAS AWAY FROM NYC THAT GET
RAIN/HEAVY RAIN.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY. YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH RISING HEIGHTS
AND A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...NOT EXPECTING PRECIP. THIS IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES POPS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

SKIES WILL BE CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY...AND WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...PLEASANT WX ON TAP FOR THE HOLIDAY.

THE UPPER DISTURBANCE DEPARTS SAT NIGHT. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE TN VALLEY SAT NIGHT...AND WILL PASS SOUTH OF NYC/LONG
ISLAND SUN AFTERNOON. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP. IF THE LOW TRACKS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...THEN MAYBE SOME SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ON SUN WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO SAT.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON MON. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...BRINGING US LOWER-
END POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN RIGHT
NOW LOOK LIKE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
DRY WEATHER THEREFORE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START...THEN WARMING
ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR TONIGHT...BUT WITH PATCHY FOG A POSSIBLE IMPACT TO
OPERATIONS ACROSS CT/LI.

NOT EXPECTING A FULL SEABREEZE AT JFK ON SATURDAY...BUT RATHER A
BACKING FROM NW TO SW FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES DEPARTS TONIGHT...THEN HIGH PRES BRIEFLY PASSES THROUGH
THE WATERS ON SAT. PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN UP ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE 20 KT GUSTS ON EASTERN OCEAN WATERS SAT AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL GENERALLY EXPECT SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO THE START OF
THE NEW WEEK. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW SETS TO
REACH 5 FT IN A LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES IN THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN NAS DECREASED THIS EVENING...WITH ANY
FURTHER ACTIVITY PRODUCING LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF PRECIPITATION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SAT ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...BS
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BS
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS

000
FXUS61 KALY 040151
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
933 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM EDT...A WEAK COLD FRONT...DENOTED BY A WIND SHIFT INTO
THE W/NW...AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS ON THE NW SIDE...IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NW CT. OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WE EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE MOVING SE
ACROSS LITCHFIELD CO...WITH PERHAPS A FEW MORE DEVELOPING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN DUTCHESS CO BEFORE EXITING.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY...IN RESPONSE TO A COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE FROM THE NW...AND SOME
OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE FLOW. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD WEAKEN UPON DRIFTING
SE...BUT MAY REDEVELOP WHEN REACHING THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN
VT...AND EVEN THE NORTHERN BERKS. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES COULD
EVEN REACH VALLEY LOCALES N/W OF THE CAPITAL REGION AROUND OR PRIOR
TO MIDNIGHT. BASED ON THIS REASONING...WILL KEEP CHC POPS ACROSS
NORTHERNMOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHC WITHIN THE
VALLEYS...MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AND FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...WILL ONLY
KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF
ANY EXPECTED AFTER FROPA.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDDED DATABASE BASED ON RECENT
TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

PER 1KM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITIES...SCT-
BKN CLOUD DECK WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION TRACKING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THESE CELLS ARE MOVING NEAR 20KTS WHICH CONTINUES
TO LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE LOCATION HENCE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS RATHER LIMITED AS THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A MID LEVEL
CAP INHIBITING THE PARCELS REACHED TOWARD THE -20C LEVEL. WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO BECOME
FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE REGION...WE WILL DECREASE POPS THIS
EVENING AND TREND EVEN LOWER OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
DACKS AND GREENS WHERE RESIDUAL UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND RATHER
MOIST LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE COLUMN COULD
TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO. DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE PTCLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 60F FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...FOR THE MOST PART...WILL BE DRY. SOME
SUBTLE FEATURES MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO WHICH IS NOT BEING
HANDLED WELL IN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE. H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT IS TRACKING EAST-
SOUTHEAST AND WILL BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID...COMBINING THE TIMING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS. THE LOCAL HIRES WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALSO SUGGESTS THIS NOTION AND WILL PLACE LOW POPS AT
THIS TIME. PERHAPS THE MOST SENSIBLE ELEMENT WILL BE THE WINDS AS
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS CLIMBING
TOWARD 5K FEET SHOULD MIX DOWN 20-25KT WINDS. FURTHERMORE...A
LITTLE FUNNELING DOWN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY MAY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WIND SPEED MAGNITUDES.

TRANQUIL SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE REGION ALTHOUGH SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO NEXT SHORT WAVE FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WILL INTRODUCE SOME VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AS
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS DO DECOUPLE AND OUR RATHER MOIST GROUND.

SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE SEEMS TO BE HANDLED RATHER
WELL IN THE CANADIAN MODEL /ALSO GUIDANCE FROM HPC SUGGESTS THIS
AS WELL/ WHICH BRINGS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THIS ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPS ALOFT COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO THE REGION. WILL
INCREASE POPS TO JUST ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE AND MONITOR TRENDS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE
AND RATHER FLAT SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER
TRANQUIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECT TO CONTINUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MONDAY
WILL BE AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED
BY A SHORTWAVE PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS WITH A SLGT CHC OF TS ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW
DISTURBANCES LEADING TO A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST...ALLOWING A SFC LOW
TO SKIRT TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA.  THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A SLGT CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE FA
THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD OFF ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR AT THE TAF SITES...WITH
SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 7000-9000 FT AGL. MOST SHOWERS
HAVE SHIFTED E OF THE TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
STILL IMPACT KPOU THROUGH 03Z/04. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC
FOR SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS INTO MVFR MAINLY FOR CIGS AT KGFL...AS
SOME LOWER CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS MAY WRAP BACK SOUTHEAST BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATER THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW 8 KT. ON
SAT...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KT...WITH SOME
GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 20-25 KT...ESP AT KALB DUE TO FUNNELING
EFFECT DOWN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT PM...VFR.
SUN-TUE...VFR...SLGT CHC PM SPRINKLES.  PSBL EARLY AM MVFR BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS WITH SATURATED GROUND IN MOST AREAS WILL HOLD
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME DRYING WILL COMMENCE THIS WEEKEND.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT ON SATURDAY AND RECOVER TO
NEAR 100 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND WEST AT 10 TO 18 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. FLOW HAS INCREASED WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN STORMS MOVING ALONG. ALSO COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE CELLS
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED...SO FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. STILL...SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WHICH
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
POSSIBLE PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

RIVERS HAVE RECEDED IN WAKE OF RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL RISES ARE UNLIKELY SINCE ANY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT GREAT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO FALL OVER
ENTIRE RIVER BASINS.

FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HYDRO
IMPACTS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTAINING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE UNLIKELY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES IN.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE
QUITE UNCERTAIN AS TO THE TIMING...TRACK AND DURATION OF YET ANOTHER
CUT-OFF LOW THAT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...HELLER/KL
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV

000
FXUS61 KBOX 040148
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
948 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOVES TO QUEBEC SAT FORCING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BECOME UNSETTLED AS VERY WARM AIR TRIES
TO INVADE THE NORTHEAST USA FOR A DAY OR 2.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA. REDUCED OVERNIGHT
POPS FROM LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE.

MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
SHORTLY.

PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS TONIGHT BUT LESS WIDESPREAD AND NOT AS DENSE AS PREVIOUS
NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THIS
WILL BRING AN AREA OF VERY COLD AIR ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR REGION...WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
TO BETWEEN -15C AND -17C.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7 C/KM ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHEAST MA.
AT THE SAME TIME THOUGH...DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW FROM MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY COMBINE WITH
INCREASING WIND FIELDS AND COLD AIR ALOFT.  THIS MAY BRING A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
BOTH THE GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 500
J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHEAST MA.  THEREFORE...WILL
INCLUDE A FEW HOURS OF CHANCE POPS IN THIS REGION AND QUICKLY TAPER
POPS DOWN SOUTHWESTWARD.  EITHER WAY THE MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY...OTHER THAN THE RISK FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND THIS FORECAST SINCE THERE IS A
RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW...BEFORE THE DRY AIR COMES RUSHING INTO THE
REGION.  HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHEAST MA FROM MID MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS...ANY RISK FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND A WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR.  IN FACT...WE EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
A DRY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT IS MAY BE A
BIT BREEZY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  THE DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL MAINLY INTO THE 50S...WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY...DRY WITH MARITIMES LOW PRES THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE RESULTING
IN A GUSTY WEST WIND. A VERY NICE SUNDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES
SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BARELY THREATEN THE S COAST AT
NIGHT. TEMPS ARE 12Z GFS MOS BLENDED WITH THE 4AM KBOX FCST. WIND
GUSTS ARE 12Z NAM MXG HTS AND GUST ALG.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...CONTINUITY WITH SORT OF AN IN BETWEEN TRANSITION. CUD
BE A LATE MONDAY AFTN TSTM IN THE INTERIOR. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY.

WED-THU...MODEL DISPARITY PREVAILS BUT IT SEEMS AS WED IS VULNERABLE
TO A SHOWER OR TSTM. THEN ON THURSDAY WE HAVE A PROBABLE DRY FCST AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT FRI...WAA FROM THE WEST. GEFS IS COOLER THAN THE EC AND EVEN THE
12Z GFS OP RUN SO HAVE 50 50 BLENDED THE 12Z GFS MOSGUIDE WITH THE
4AM KBOX FCST. IF ANYTHING...WE THINK NEXT FRI COULD BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS SOLN IS LESS THAN NORMAL.

FCST WINDS THIS SUNDAY/MONDAY ARE 50 50 BLEND GFS MOSGUIDE AND NAM THRU 84
HRS THEN 50/50 12Z GFS MOS AND 4AM EDT KBOX FCST FOR THE NEXT TUE-FRI
TIME FRAME.

FCST SKY...50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS MOS GUIDE AND THE 4AM EDT KBOX
FCST SUNDAY-FRIDAY THO I ADDED 20-30 PCT SKYCVR NEXT FRI...THIS DUE
TO THE WAA PATTERN AS THE HOT PROD IN THE NATIONS MID SECTION TRIES
TO INTRUDE UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT-NE PERIPHERY OF THE MID USA RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT. MAIN
CONCENTRATION AT 18Z IS FROM BDL-PVD AND SREF PROBS FOR CAPE>500 J/KG
IS CAPTURING THIS AREA VERY WELL. SREF SUGGESTS GREATEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF I95
CORRIDOR. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE
HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY TSTMS...OTHERWISE VFR CIGS EXPECTED.
MEANWHILE...STRATUS DECK SOUTH OF THE CAPE IS ERODING SO MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FMH-HYA-ACK.

TONIGHT...WDLY SCT MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. IFR ST/FOG MAY DEVELOP AT ACK BY 00Z...AND
OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS AND HYA/FMH AFT 06Z.

SATURDAY...LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ASSOCD WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
14-18Z...PRIMARILY MHT-ORH-BOS. RAPID DRYING OCCURRING AFT 18Z WITH
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR. WEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY 17Z-23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
OTHERWISE...SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 2
AND 4 FEET.  HOWEVER...5 FOOT SEAS MAY FLIRT WITH THE OUTER-WATERS.

SATURDAY...ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS TO 5 FEET
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS...SO WILL HOIST A SCA IN THIS
REGION.  IN ADDITION...WESTERLY FLOW AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORT 20 TO
25 KNOT WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
CONSIDER A SCA FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO HOIST AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

NO HEADLINES ATTM THO WLY WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS SUN AFTN MAY PROMPT A
PARTIAL E MA COAST SHORT TERM SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...KJC/DRAG
MARINE...DRAG/FRANK

000
FXUS61 KBOX 040026
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
826 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOVES TO QUEBEC SAT FORCING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BECOME UNSETTLED AS VERY WARM AIR TRIES
TO INVADE THE NORTHEAST USA FOR A DAY OR 2.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ALLOWED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AND DROPPED THE ENHANCED
WORDING THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE LOCALLY
SEVERE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

WILL ALSO MAKE SOME MODIFICATION TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS SHORTLY.

PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS TONIGHT BUT LESS WIDESPREAD AND NOT AS DENSE AS PREVIOUS
NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THIS
WILL BRING AN AREA OF VERY COLD AIR ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR REGION...WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
TO BETWEEN -15C AND -17C.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7 C/KM ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHEAST MA.
AT THE SAME TIME THOUGH...DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW FROM MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY COMBINE WITH
INCREASING WIND FIELDS AND COLD AIR ALOFT.  THIS MAY BRING A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
BOTH THE GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 500
J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHEAST MA.  THEREFORE...WILL
INCLUDE A FEW HOURS OF CHANCE POPS IN THIS REGION AND QUICKLY TAPER
POPS DOWN SOUTHWESTWARD.  EITHER WAY THE MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY...OTHER THAN THE RISK FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND THIS FORECAST SINCE THERE IS A
RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW...BEFORE THE DRY AIR COMES RUSHING INTO THE
REGION.  HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHEAST MA FROM MID MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS...ANY RISK FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND A WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR.  IN FACT...WE EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
A DRY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT IS MAY BE A
BIT BREEZY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  THE DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL MAINLY INTO THE 50S...WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY...DRY WITH MARITIMES LOW PRES THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE RESULTING
IN A GUSTY WEST WIND. A VERY NICE SUNDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES
SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BARELY THREATEN THE S COAST AT
NIGHT. TEMPS ARE 12Z GFS MOS BLENDED WITH THE 4AM KBOX FCST. WIND
GUSTS ARE 12Z NAM MXG HTS AND GUST ALG.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...CONTINUITY WITH SORT OF AN IN BETWEEN TRANSITION. CUD
BE A LATE MONDAY AFTN TSTM IN THE INTERIOR. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY.

WED-THU...MODEL DISPARITY PREVAILS BUT IT SEEMS AS WED IS VULNERABLE
TO A SHOWER OR TSTM. THEN ON THURSDAY WE HAVE A PROBABLE DRY FCST AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT FRI...WAA FROM THE WEST. GEFS IS COOLER THAN THE EC AND EVEN THE
12Z GFS OP RUN SO HAVE 50 50 BLENDED THE 12Z GFS MOSGUIDE WITH THE
4AM KBOX FCST. IF ANYTHING...WE THINK NEXT FRI COULD BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS SOLN IS LESS THAN NORMAL.

FCST WINDS THIS SUNDAY/MONDAY ARE 50 50 BLEND GFS MOSGUIDE AND NAM THRU 84
HRS THEN 50/50 12Z GFS MOS AND 4AM EDT KBOX FCST FOR THE NEXT TUE-FRI
TIME FRAME.

FCST SKY...50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS MOS GUIDE AND THE 4AM EDT KBOX
FCST SUNDAY-FRIDAY THO I ADDED 20-30 PCT SKYCVR NEXT FRI...THIS DUE
TO THE WAA PATTERN AS THE HOT PROD IN THE NATIONS MID SECTION TRIES
TO INTRUDE UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT-NE PERIPHERY OF THE MID USA RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT. MAIN
CONCENTRATION AT 18Z IS FROM BDL-PVD AND SREF PROBS FOR CAPE>500 J/KG
IS CAPTURING THIS AREA VERY WELL. SREF SUGGESTS GREATEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF I95
CORRIDOR. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE
HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY TSTMS...OTHERWISE VFR CIGS EXPECTED.
MEANWHILE...STRATUS DECK SOUTH OF THE CAPE IS ERODING SO MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FMH-HYA-ACK.

TONIGHT...WDLY SCT MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. IFR ST/FOG MAY DEVELOP AT ACK BY 00Z...AND
OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS AND HYA/FMH AFT 06Z.

SATURDAY...LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ASSOCD WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
14-18Z...PRIMARILY MHT-ORH-BOS. RAPID DRYING OCCURRING AFT 18Z WITH
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR. WEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY 17Z-23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
OTHERWISE...SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 2
AND 4 FEET.  HOWEVER...5 FOOT SEAS MAY FLIRT WITH THE OUTER-WATERS.

SATURDAY...ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS TO 5 FEET
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS...SO WILL HOIST A SCA IN THIS
REGION.  IN ADDITION...WESTERLY FLOW AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORT 20 TO
25 KNOT WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
CONSIDER A SCA FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO HOIST AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

NO HEADLINES ATTM THO WLY WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS SUN AFTN MAY PROMPT A
PARTIAL E MA COAST SHORT TERM SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...KJC/DRAG
MARINE...DRAG/FRANK

000
FXUS61 KOKX 040001
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
801 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...THEN WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH FOR MONDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION IN
THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
GENERAL DECREASING TREND TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.
LOTS OF REMAINING BOUNDARIES AS TRIGGERS...BUT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT A CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND.

ANOTHER WARM...MOIST NIGHT ON TAP. HOWEVER ANY FOG FORMATION WILL
DEPEND ON WINDS. EXPECT PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY AWAY FROM
NYC AND ESPECIALLY IN AREAS AWAY FROM NYC THAT GET RAIN/HEAVY
RAIN.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY. YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH RISING HEIGHTS
AND A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...NOT EXPECTING PRECIP. THIS IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES POPS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

SKIES WILL BE CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY...AND WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...PLEASANT WX ON TAP FOR THE HOLIDAY.

THE UPPER DISTURBANCE DEPARTS SAT NIGHT. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE TN VALLEY SAT NIGHT...AND WILL PASS SOUTH OF NYC/LONG
ISLAND SUN AFTERNOON. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP. IF THE LOW TRACKS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...THEN MAYBE SOME SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ON SUN WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO SAT.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON MON. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...BRINGING US LOWER-
END POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN RIGHT
NOW LOOK LIKE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
DRY WEATHER THEREFORE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START...THEN WARMING
ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DECAYING LINE OF SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT NYC TERMINALS IN
THE SHORT TERM. GENERALLY VFR TONIGHT...BUT WITH PATCHY FOG A
POSSIBLE IMPACT TO OPERATIONS ACROSS CT/LI.

NOT EXPECTING A FULL SEABREEZE AT JFK ON SATURDAY...BUT RATHER A
BACKING FROM NW TO SW FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES DEPARTS TONIGHT...THEN HIGH PRES BRIEFLY PASSES THROUGH
THE WATERS ON SAT. PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN UP ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE 20 KT GUSTS ON EASTERN OCEAN WATERS SAT AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL GENERALLY EXPECT SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO THE START OF
THE NEW WEEK. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW SETS TO
REACH 5 FT IN A LONGER PERIOD SWELL.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES IN THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN NAS DECREASED THIS EVENING...WITH ANY
FURTHER ACTIVITY PRODUCING LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF PRECIPITATION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SAT ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...BS
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BS
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS/BS

000
FXUS61 KALY 032336
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
729 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PER 1KM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITIES...SCT-
BKN CLOUD DECK WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION TRACKING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THESE CELLS ARE MOVING NEAR 20KTS WHICH CONTINUES
TO LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE LOCATION HENCE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS RATHER LIMITED AS THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A MID LEVEL
CAP INHIBITING THE PARCELS REACHED TOWARD THE -20C LEVEL. WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO BECOME
FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE REGION...WE WILL DECREASE POPS THIS
EVENING AND TREND EVEN LOWER OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
DACKS AND GREENS WHERE RESIDUAL UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND RATHER
MOIST LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE COLUMN COULD
TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO. DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE PTCLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 60F FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...FOR THE MOST PART...WILL BE DRY. SOME
SUBTLE FEATURES MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO WHICH IS NOT BEING
HANDLED WELL IN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE. H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT IS TRACKING EAST-
SOUTHEAST AND WILL BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID...COMBINING THE TIMING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS. THE LOCAL HIRES WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALSO SUGGESTS THIS NOTION AND WILL PLACE LOW POPS AT
THIS TIME. PERHAPS THE MOST SENSIBLE ELEMENT WILL BE THE WINDS AS
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS CLIMBING
TOWARD 5K FEET SHOULD MIX DOWN 20-25KT WINDS. FURTHERMORE...A
LITTLE FUNNELING DOWN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY MAY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WIND SPEED MAGNITUDES.

TRANQUIL SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE REGION ALTHOUGH SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO NEXT SHORT WAVE FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WILL INTRODUCE SOME VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AS
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS DO DECOUPLE AND OUR RATHER MOIST GROUND.

SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE SEEMS TO BE HANDLED RATHER
WELL IN THE CANADIAN MODEL /ALSO GUIDANCE FROM HPC SUGGESTS THIS
AS WELL/ WHICH BRINGS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THIS ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPS ALOFT COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO THE REGION. WILL
INCREASE POPS TO JUST ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE AND MONITOR TRENDS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE
AND RATHER FLAT SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER
TRANQUIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECT TO CONTINUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MONDAY
WILL BE AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED
BY A SHORTWAVE PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS WITH A SLGT CHC OF TS ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW
DISTURBANCES LEADING TO A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST...ALLOWING A SFC LOW
TO SKIRT TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA.  THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A SLGT CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE FA
THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD OFF ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR AT THE TAF SITES...WITH
SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 7000-9000 FT AGL. MOST SHOWERS
HAVE SHIFTED E OF THE TAF SITES...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
STILL IMPACT KPOU THROUGH 03Z/04. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC
FOR SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS INTO MVFR MAINLY FOR CIGS AT KGFL...AS
SOME LOWER CLOUDS/LIGHT SHOWERS MAY WRAP BACK SOUTHEAST BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATER THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OVERNIGHT...WITH SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW 8 KT. ON
SAT...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KT...WITH SOME
GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 20-25 KT...ESP AT KALB DUE TO FUNNELING
EFFECT DOWN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT PM...VFR.
SUN-TUE...VFR...SLGT CHC PM SPRINKLES.  PSBL EARLY AM MVFR BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS WITH SATURATED GROUND IN MOST AREAS WILL HOLD
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME DRYING WILL COMMENCE THIS WEEKEND.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT ON SATURDAY AND RECOVER TO
NEAR 100 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND WEST AT 10 TO 18 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. FLOW HAS INCREASED WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN STORMS MOVING ALONG. ALSO COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE CELLS
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED...SO FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. STILL...SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WHICH
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
POSSIBLE PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

RIVERS HAVE RECEDED IN WAKE OF RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL RISES ARE UNLIKELY SINCE ANY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT GREAT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO FALL OVER
ENTIRE RIVER BASINS.

FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HYDRO
IMPACTS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTAINING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE UNLIKELY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES IN.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE
QUITE UNCERTAIN AS TO THE TIMING...TRACK AND DURATION OF YET ANOTHER
CUT-OFF LOW THAT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...KL/HELLER
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV

000
FXUS61 KBOX 032110
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
510 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOVES TO QUEBEC SAT FORCING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BECOME UNSETTLED AS VERY WARM AIR TRIES
TO INVADE THE NORTHEAST USA FOR A DAY OR 2.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD POOL ALOFT
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  DESPITE RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS...500 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  MAINLY PEA SIZE
HAIL IS EXPECTED...BUT A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE THERE IS A BIT BETTER
SURFACE CONVERGENCE BASED ON THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...ANY STORMS THAT GO UP MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING.  WITH THE SATURATED GROUND FROM THE HEAVY RAINS
OF THE LAST FEW DAYS...WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.  HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO
AN END BY MID TO LATE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT QUIET WEATHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THIS
WILL BRING AN AREA OF VERY COLD AIR ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR REGION...WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
TO BETWEEN -15C AND -17C.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7 C/KM ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHEAST MA.
AT THE SAME TIME THOUGH...DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW FROM MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY COMBINE WITH
INCREASING WIND FIELDS AND COLD AIR ALOFT.  THIS MAY BRING A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
BOTH THE GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 500
J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHEAST MA.  THEREFORE...WILL
INCLUDE A FEW HOURS OF CHANCE POPS IN THIS REGION AND QUICKLY TAPER
POPS DOWN SOUTHWESTWARD.  EITHER WAY THE MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY...OTHER THAN THE RISK FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND THIS FORECAST SINCE THERE IS A
RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW...BEFORE THE DRY AIR COMES RUSHING INTO THE
REGION.  HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHEAST MA FROM MID MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS...ANY RISK FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND A WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR.  IN FACT...WE EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
A DRY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT IS MAY BE A
BIT BREEZY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  THE DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL MAINLY INTO THE 50S...WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY...DRY WITH MARITIMES LOW PRES THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE RESULTING
IN A GUSTY WEST WIND. A VERY NICE SUNDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES
SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BARELY THREATEN THE S COAST AT
NIGHT. TEMPS ARE 12Z GFS MOS BLENDED WITH THE 4AM KBOX FCST. WIND
GUSTS ARE 12Z NAM MXG HTS AND GUST ALG.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...CONTINUITY WITH SORT OF AN IN BETWEEN TRANSITION. CUD
BE A LATE MONDAY AFTN TSTM IN THE INTERIOR. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY.

WED-THU...MODEL DISPARITY PREVAILS BUT IT SEEMS AS WED IS VULNERABLE
TO A SHOWER OR TSTM. THEN ON THURSDAY WE HAVE A PROBABLE DRY FCST AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT FRI...WAA FROM THE WEST. GEFS IS COOLER THAN THE EC AND EVEN THE
12Z GFS OP RUN SO HAVE 50 50 BLENDED THE 12Z GFS MOSGUIDE WITH THE
4AM KBOX FCST. IF ANYTHING...WE THINK NEXT FRI COULD BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS SOLN IS LESS THAN NORMAL.

FCST WINDS THIS SUNDAY/MONDAY ARE 50 50 BLEND GFS MOSGUIDE AND NAM THRU 84
HRS THEN 50/50 12Z GFS MOS AND 4AM EDT KBOX FCST FOR THE NEXT TUE-FRI
TIME FRAME.

FCST SKY...50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS MOS GUIDE AND THE 4AM EDT KBOX
FCST SUNDAY-FRIDAY THO I ADDED 20-30 PCT SKYCVR NEXT FRI...THIS DUE
TO THE WAA PATTERN AS THE HOT PROD IN THE NATIONS MID SECTION TRIES
TO INTRUDE UNDER WNW FLOW ALOFT-NE PERIPHERY OF THE MID USA RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT. MAIN
CONCENTRATION AT 18Z IS FROM BDL-PVD AND SREF PROBS FOR CAPE>500 J/KG
IS CAPTURING THIS AREA VERY WELL. SREF SUGGESTS GREATEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF I95
CORRIDOR. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE
HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY TSTMS...OTHERWISE VFR CIGS EXPECTED.
MEANWHILE...STRATUS DECK SOUTH OF THE CAPE IS ERODING SO MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FMH-HYA-ACK.

TONIGHT...WDLY SCT MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. IFR ST/FOG MAY DEVELOP AT ACK BY 00Z...AND
OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS AND HYA/FMH AFT 06Z.

SATURDAY...LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ASSOCD WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
14-18Z...PRIMARILY MHT-ORH-BOS. RAPID DRYING OCCURRING AFT 18Z WITH
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR. WEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY 17Z-23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
OTHERWISE...SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 2
AND 4 FEET.  HOWEVER...5 FOOT SEAS MAY FLIRT WITH THE OUTER-WATERS.

SATURDAY...ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS TO 5 FEET
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS...SO WILL HOIST A SCA IN THIS
REGION.  IN ADDITION...WESTERLY FLOW AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORT 20 TO
25 KNOT WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
CONSIDER A SCA FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO HOIST AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

NO HEADLINES ATTM THO WLY WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS SUN AFTN MAY PROMPT A
PARTIAL E MA COAST SHORT TERM SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>021-
     026.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-
     015.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DRAG 509
AVIATION...KJC/DRAG 509
MARINE...DRAG/FRANK

000
FXUS61 KBOX 032054
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
454 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOVES TO QUEBEC SAT FORCING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BECOME UNSETTLED AS VERY WARM AIR TRIES
TO INVADE THE NORTHEAST USA FOR A DAY OR 2.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD POOL ALOFT
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  DESPITE RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS...500 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  MAINLY PEA SIZE
HAIL IS EXPECTED...BUT A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE THERE IS A BIT BETTER
SURFACE CONVERGENCE BASED ON THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...ANY STORMS THAT GO UP MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING.  WITH THE SATURATED GROUND FROM THE HEAVY RAINS
OF THE LAST FEW DAYS...WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.  HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO
AN END BY MID TO LATE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT QUIET WEATHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THIS
WILL BRING AN AREA OF VERY COLD AIR ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR REGION...WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
TO BETWEEN -15C AND -17C.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7 C/KM ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHEAST MA.
AT THE SAME TIME THOUGH...DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW FROM MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY COMBINE WITH
INCREASING WIND FIELDS AND COLD AIR ALOFT.  THIS MAY BRING A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
BOTH THE GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 500
J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHEAST MA.  THEREFORE...WILL
INCLUDE A FEW HOURS OF CHANCE POPS IN THIS REGION AND QUICKLY TAPER
POPS DOWN SOUTHWESTWARD.  EITHER WAY THE MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY...OTHER THAN THE RISK FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND THIS FORECAST SINCE THERE IS A
RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW...BEFORE THE DRY AIR COMES RUSHING INTO THE
REGION.  HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHEAST MA FROM MID MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS...ANY RISK FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND A WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR.  IN FACT...WE EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
A DRY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT IS MAY BE A
BIT BREEZY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  THE DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL MAINLY INTO THE 50S...WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY...DRY WITH MARITIMES LOW PRES THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE RESULTING
IN A GUSTY WEST WIND. A VERY NICE SUNDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES
SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BARELY THREATEN THE S COAST AT
NIGHT. TEMPS ARE 12Z GFS MOS BLENDED WITH THE 4AM KBOX FCST. WIND
GUSTS ARE 12Z NAM MXG HTS AND GUST ALG.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...CONTINUITY WITH SORT OF AN IN BETWEEN TRANSITION. CUD
BE A LATE MONDAY AFTN TSTM IN THE INTERIOR. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY.

WED-THU...MODEL DISPARITY PREVAILS BUT IT SEEMS AS WED IS VULNERABLE
TO A SHOWER OR TSTM WITH A PROBABLE DRY FCST AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT FRI...WAA FROM THE WEST. GEFS IS COOLER THAN THE EC AND EVEN THE
12Z GFS OP RUN SO HAVE 50 50 BLENDED THE 12Z GFS MOSGUIDE WITH THE
4AM KBOX FCST. IF ANYTHING WE THINK NEXT FRI COULD BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS SOLN IS LESS THAN NORMAL.

FCST WINDS SUN/MON ARE 50 50 BLEND GFS MOSGUIDE AND NAM THRU 84 HRS
THEN 50/50 12Z GFS MOS AND 4AM EDT KBOX FCST.

FCST SKY...50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS MOS GUIDE AND THE 4AM EDT KBOX
FCST THO I ADDED 20-30 PCT SKYCVR NEXT FRI...WAA PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT. MAIN
CONCENTRATION AT 18Z IS FROM BDL-PVD AND SREF PROBS FOR CAPE>500 J/KG
IS CAPTURING THIS AREA VERY WELL. SREF SUGGESTS GREATEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF I95
CORRIDOR. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE
HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY TSTMS...OTHERWISE VFR CIGS EXPECTED.
MEANWHILE...STRATUS DECK SOUTH OF THE CAPE IS ERODING SO MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FMH-HYA-ACK.

TONIGHT...WDLY SCT MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. IFR ST/FOG MAY DEVELOP AT ACK BY 00Z...AND
OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS AND HYA/FMH AFT 06Z.

SATURDAY...LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ASSOCD WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
14-18Z...PRIMARILY MHT-ORH-BOS. RAPID DRYING OCCURRING AFT 18Z WITH
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR. WEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE SUN MIDDAY/AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
OTHERWISE...SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 2
AND 4 FEET.  HOWEVER...5 FOOT SEAS MAY FLIRT WITH THE OUTER-WATERS.

SATURDAY...ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS TO 5 FEET
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS...SO WILL HOIST A SCA IN THIS
REGION.  IN ADDITION...WESTERLY FLOW AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORT 20 TO
25 KNOT WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
CONSIDER A SCA FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO HOIST AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

NO HEADLINES ATTM THO WLY WIND GUST S 25 KNOTS SUN AFTN MAY PROMPT A
PARTIAL SHORT TERM SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>021-
     026.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-
     015.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DRAG/STRAUSS 455
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DRAG 455
AVIATION...KJC/DRAG 455
MARINE...DRAG/FRANK 455

000
FXUS61 KBOX 032022
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
422 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOVES TO QUEBEC SAT FORCING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES OFF. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH
DRY WEATHER THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD POOL ALOFT
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  DESPITE RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS...500 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  MAINLY PEA SIZE
HAIL IS EXPECTED...BUT A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE THERE IS A BIT BETTER
SURFACE CONVERGENCE BASED ON THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...ANY STORMS THAT GO UP MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING.  WITH THE SATURATED GROUND FROM THE HEAVY RAINS
OF THE LAST FEW DAYS...WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.  HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO
AN END BY MID TO LATE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT QUIET WEATHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THIS
WILL BRING AN AREA OF VERY COLD AIR ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR REGION...WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING
TO BETWEEN -15C AND -17C.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7 C/KM ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHEAST MA.
AT THE SAME TIME THOUGH...DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW FROM MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY COMBINE WITH
INCREASING WIND FIELDS AND COLD AIR ALOFT.  THIS MAY BRING A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
BOTH THE GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 500
J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHEAST MA.  THEREFORE...WILL
INCLUDE A FEW HOURS OF CHANCE POPS IN THIS REGION AND QUICKLY TAPER
POPS DOWN SOUTHWESTWARD.  EITHER WAY THE MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY...OTHER THAN THE RISK FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND THIS FORECAST SINCE THERE IS A
RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW...BEFORE THE DRY AIR COMES RUSHING INTO THE
REGION.  HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHEAST MA FROM MID MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS...ANY RISK FOR CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND A WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR.  IN FACT...WE EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
A DRY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT IS MAY BE A
BIT BREEZY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  THE DRY AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL MAINLY INTO THE 50S...WITH LOWER 60S IN THE
URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY-MONDAY
ONCE THE SATURDAY UPPER LOW MOVES OFF...NEW ENGLAND MOVES INTO A
WESTERLY FLOW WITH LOW PRESSURE LINGERING NORTH OF THE BORDER.  THE
BULK OF THE COLD POOL REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...POSSIBLY CLIPPING AREAS
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.  AS PER THE 00Z ECMWF...MUCH OF THE AIRMASS
DRIES ALTHOUGH LINGERING 60 PERCENT RH AT 850 MB SUGGESTS SOME
CLOUDS.  WE WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...SOUTHERN NH MAY REACH CHC POPS BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY.  TEMPS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REACH THE EQUIVALENT OF 850 MB
11-13C...SO MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW EDGES SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS
RETURNS THE COLD POOL OVERHEAD...500 MB TEMPS -15C TO -17C...AND
BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO NEW ENGLAND.  THIS LOOKS GOOD ENOUGH
TO BRING CHANCE POPS...INCREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST AREAS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MIXED LAYER TEMPS DROP TO 8-10C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT LINGERING COLD
AIR ALOFT AND MOISTURE.  WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN NORTHERN MASS AND
SOUTHERN NH...DIMINISHING LATE.  THIS COVERAGE MAY BE TOO
CONSERVATIVE OWING TO THE FORECAST EXTENT OF THE UPPER COLD AIR.
STAY TUNED.  MIXED LAYER TEMPS REMAIN 8-10C SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN
THE 70S.

THURSDAY...UPPER TROF MOVES OFF...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  SHOULD
BE A DRY DAY.  MIXED LAYER TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 12C...MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE BACK IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT. MAIN
CONCENTRATION AT 18Z IS FROM BDL-PVD AND SREF PROBS FOR CAPE>500 J/KG
IS CAPTURING THIS AREA VERY WELL. SREF SUGGESTS GREATEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF I95
CORRIDOR. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE
HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY TSTMS...OTHERWISE VFR CIGS EXPECTED.
MEANWHILE...STRATUS DECK SOUTH OF THE CAPE IS ERODING SO MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FMH-HYA-ACK.

TONIGHT...WDLY SCT MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. IFR ST/FOG MAY DEVELOP AT ACK BY 00Z...AND
OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS AND HYA/FMH AFT 06Z.

SATURDAY...LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ASSOCD WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
14-18Z...PRIMARILY MHT-ORH-BOS. RAPID DRYING OCCURRING AFT 18Z WITH
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.  ALSO AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN FOG EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
OTHERWISE...SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 2
AND 4 FEET.  HOWEVER...5 FOOT SEAS MAY FLIRT WITH THE OUTER-WATERS.

SATURDAY...ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BRING SEAS TO 5 FEET
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS...SO WILL HOIST A SCA IN THIS
REGION.  IN ADDITION...WESTERLY FLOW AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORT 20 TO
25 KNOT WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.  LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
CONSIDER A SCA FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO HOIST AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SEAS MAY
REACH 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MON AND TUE...NO HEADLINES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>021-
     026.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-
     015.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...FRANK/WTB

000
FXUS61 KALY 032004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
404 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PER 1KM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITIES...SCT-
BKN CLOUD DECK WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION TRACKING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THESE CELLS ARE MOVING NEAR 20KTS WHICH CONTINUES
TO LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE LOCATION HENCE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS RATHER LIMITED AS THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A MID LEVEL
CAP INHIBITING THE PARCELS REACHED TOWARD THE -20C LEVEL. WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO BECOME
FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE REGION...WE WILL DECREASE POPS THIS
EVENING AND TREND EVEN LOWER OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
DACKS AND GREENS WHERE RESIDUAL UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND RATHER
MOIST LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE COLUMN COULD
TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR TWO. DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE PTCLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 60F FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...FOR THE MOST PART...WILL BE DRY. SOME
SUBTLE FEATURES MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO WHICH IS NOT BEING
HANDLED WELL IN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE. H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT IS TRACKING EAST-
SOUTHEAST AND WILL BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THAT SAID...COMBINING THE TIMING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND GREENS. THE LOCAL HIRES WRF
REFLECTIVITY ALSO SUGGESTS THIS NOTION AND WILL PLACE LOW POPS AT
THIS TIME. PERHAPS THE MOST SENSIBLE ELEMENT WILL BE THE WINDS AS
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS CLIMBING
TOWARD 5K FEET SHOULD MIX DOWN 20-25KT WINDS. FURTHERMORE...A
LITTLE FUNNELING DOWN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY MAY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WIND SPEED MAGNITUDES.

TRANQUIL SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE REGION ALTHOUGH SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH RESPECT TO NEXT SHORT WAVE FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WILL INTRODUCE SOME VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AS
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS DO DECOUPLE AND OUR RATHER MOIST GROUND.

SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE SEEMS TO BE HANDLED RATHER
WELL IN THE CANADIAN MODEL /ALSO GUIDANCE FROM HPC SUGGESTS THIS
AS WELL/ WHICH BRINGS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THIS ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPS ALOFT COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO THE REGION. WILL
INCREASE POPS TO JUST ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE AND MONITOR TRENDS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE
AND RATHER FLAT SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER
TRANQUIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECT TO CONTINUE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MONDAY
WILL BE AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED
BY A SHORTWAVE PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS WITH A SLGT CHC OF TS ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW
DISTURBANCES LEADING TO A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ON THURSDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST...ALLOWING A SFC LOW
TO SKIRT TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA.  THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A SLGT CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE FA
THROUGH FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD OFF ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CIGS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THREAT OF SHRA IN AREA AND VERY
MOIST GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER AIR...ESPECIALLY GFL...UNTIL A
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH SLIDES ACROSS THE AIRPORTS...FINALLY
BRINGING IN SOME DRIER ATMOSPHERE... BUT ALSO SOME GUSTY WEST
WINDS. HAVE INCLUDED A WIND SHEAR GROUP FOR MARGINAL CONDITIONS
ALB FOR THEIR MORNING FLIGHT VOLUME. CLOUDS SCATTER OUT WELL ON
AMERICA`S 233RD BIRTHDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN...AND WITH THE ABUNDANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE FILLING IN FROM WET GROUND...VICINITY FIREWORKS WILL
ONLY ADD A HAZE DIMENSION TO PROBABLE FOG FORMATION TOWARD DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT PM...MVFR HZ/BR LIKELY DEVELOPING.
SUN-TUE...VFR...SLGT CHC PM SPRINKLES.  PSBL EARLY AM MVFR BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS WITH SATURATED GROUND IN MOST AREAS WILL HOLD
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME DRYING WILL COMMENCE THIS WEEKEND.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT ON SATURDAY AND RECOVER TO
NEAR 100 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND WEST AT 10 TO 18 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. FLOW HAS INCREASED WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN STORMS MOVING ALONG. ALSO COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE CELLS
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED...SO FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. STILL...SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WHICH
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
POSSIBLE PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

RIVERS HAVE RECEDED IN WAKE OF RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL RISES ARE UNLIKELY SINCE ANY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT GREAT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO FALL OVER
ENTIRE RIVER BASINS.

FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HYDRO
IMPACTS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTAINING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE UNLIKELY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES IN.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE
QUITE UNCERTAIN AS TO THE TIMING...TRACK AND DURATION OF YET ANOTHER
CUT-OFF LOW THAT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...HELLER
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KOKX 031857
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
257 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...THEN WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH FOR MONDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION IN
THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PULLS
OFFSHORE. SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO SLIDE ASSIST IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION.

THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION. SFC TEMPS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80...AND SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE LOWER 60S. RAINFALL MAY BRIEFLY KNOCK TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S.
MUCAPES IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE CURRENTLY AVERAGING 1000-1500 J/KG
AND COULD GO UP IF THE SUN BREAKS OUT AND TEMPS WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LIFTED INDEX IS ALSO RANGING
FROM -2 TO -4C. THE MAIN ISSUE IS THAT PWATS ARE 1 TO 1.25"...
INDICATING THAT THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE HEAVY RAIN. KOKX PICKED
UP 0.61" OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR...AND THIS IS A GOOD
INDICATION OF WHAT IS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE. NOT EVERY PLACE WILL
SEE RAIN...BUT THOSE THAT DO COULD GET SOME HEAVY RAIN THAT WOULD
RESULT IN LOCAL URBAN FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...AND SMALL RIVERS/STREAMS COULD EXPERIENCE RISES.

SHOWERS/TSTMS TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OFFSHORE AND WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH ANOTHER WARM...
MOIST NIGHT ON TAP...WILL EXPECT PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY
AWAY FROM NYC AND ESPECIALLY IN AREAS AWAY FROM NYC THAT GET
RAIN/HEAVY RAIN.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY. YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH RISING HEIGHTS
AND A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...NOT EXPECTING PRECIP. THIS IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES POPS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

SKIES WILL BE CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY...AND WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...PLEASANT WX ON TAP FOR THE HOLIDAY.

THE UPPER DISTURBANCE DEPARTS SAT NIGHT. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE TN VALLEY SAT NIGHT...AND WILL PASS SOUTH OF NYC/LONG
ISLAND SUN AFTERNOON. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP. IF THE LOW TRACKS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...THEN MAYBE SOME SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ON SUN WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO SAT.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON MON. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...BRINGING US LOWER-
END POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN RIGHT
NOW LOOK LIKE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
DRY WEATHER THEREFORE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START...THEN WARMING
ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS TERMINALS THIS AFT WILL PRODUCE
ISOLATED CONVECTION THRU 21Z. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL REDUCING VSBYS TO IFR. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO CARRY TSRA AT ANY ONE TERMINAL...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH
MENTION OF A CB. EXPECT DRYING OUT AFTER 21Z WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
SHORT WAVE TROF AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.

SFC TROUGH OVER THE AREA AT 18Z WILL ALLOW WINDS AT COASTAL TERMINALS
TO COME OUT OF THE SW...BUT THEN GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE W
BY 21Z. ELSEWHERE...W/NW WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SUN WITH W WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KT AFTER 13Z. A FEW CU AROUND 5 KFT DEVELOPING BY AFT.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES DEPARTS TONIGHT...THEN HIGH PRES BRIEFLY PASSES THROUGH
THE WATERS ON SAT. PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN UP ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE 20 KT GUSTS ON EASTERN OCEAN WATERS SAT AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL GENERALLY EXPECT SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO THE START OF
THE NEW WEEK.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES IN THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF OVER AN INCH...ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/MPS
HYDROLOGY...MPS

000
FXUS61 KOKX 031838
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
238 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES PIVOTING AROUND A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL INTERACT WITH AN HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AND AN OLD FRONTAL ZONE TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER TONIGHT AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFT WILL
PRODUCE SCT CONVECTION WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. OLD FRONTAL ZONE PROVIDED FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
EARLIER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LI...NECESSITATING AN FLS FOR
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING. THIS SHOULD BE AN ISOLATED EVENT.

SUBSIDENCE AND STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION
TOWARD EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT.

HIGHS WILL TOP OFF BETWEEN 75 AND 80...A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY PRECIP ENDS THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...AND
WITH DRYING OUT OF VERTICAL COLUMN LATE. A VIGOROUS MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING...BUT WITH LACK OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND RISING HEIGHTS LATER IN THE DAY EXPECT A MOSTLY
SUNNY INDEPENDENCE DAY...WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN WELL SUPPRESSED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...TAKING A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT...FAIR WX WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAY CLOSE OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN
GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SINCE IT IS TOUGH TO
PINPOINT WHEN THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS FAR
OUT IN TIME...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT CHC SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONFINED
TO THE AFTN/EVE HOURS EACH DAY WITH DIURNAL HEATING.

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN PARKED THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WITH WAVES OF LOW PRES RIDING ALONG IT FROM TIME
TO TIME. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF THEY WILL PASS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
THAT WILL BE SPARED FROM ANY EFFECTS FROM THEM.

LOW PRES WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH ON WED/WED NIGHT WITH ITS
ATTENDING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS TERMINALS THIS AFT WILL PRODUCE
ISOLATED CONVECTION THRU 21Z. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL REDUCING VSBYS TO IFR. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO CARRY TSRA AT ANY ONE TERMINAL...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH
MENTION OF A CB. EXPECT DRYING OUT AFTER 21Z WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
SHORT WAVE TROF AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.

SFC TROUGH OVER THE AREA AT 18Z WILL ALLOW WINDS AT COASTAL TERMINALS
TO COME OUT OF THE SW...BUT THEN GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE W
BY 21Z. ELSEWHERE...W/NW WINDS AT AROUND 10 KT.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SUN WITH W WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KT AFTER 13Z. A FEW CU AROUND 5 KFT DEVELOPING BY AFT.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WATERS TODAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH...AND SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES
FOR MONDAY AND REMAINS INTO TUESDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY BECOME
MORE WESTERLY...THEN NORTHWEST SATURDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. WINDS DO INCREASE SATURDAY AND MAY
BECOME GUSTY WITH GUSTS NEARING 20 KT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OF UP TO AN INCH THIS AFT...PRODUCING LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DW

000
FXUS61 KBOX 031817
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
215 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOVES TO QUEBEC SAT FORCING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES OFF. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH
DRY WEATHER THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING.  LOW CLOUDS REMAINED ACROSS EASTERN MA AT MID
MORNING...BUT THESE TO SHOULD BURNOFF AT MOST OF THESE PLACES BY NOON.
ENOUGH SUNSHINE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD PUSH HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE ACROSS MOST LOCALES.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE EXPECTED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS A RESULT OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT WILL COMBINE
WITH THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY.  AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW
MONTHS...THE GFS MODEL IS OVERDONE WITH THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND
TOO MUCH CAPE.  NONETHELESS...500 MB COLD POOL OF -14C WILL STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND SHOULD RESULT IN 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE.  0 TO
6 KM SHEAR ARE FAIRLY WEAK GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS.

ALL IN ALL...PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...COLD POOL ALOFTS OFTEN OVER PERFORM IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HAIL IN THE
FORECAST.  REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL ARE LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.  HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE AND PRODUCE PENNY TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL.  TOUGH TO PINPOINT
WHERE EXACTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE...BUT THE SREF
PROBABILITIES INDICATE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

A BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE WEAK WINDS ALOFT...RESULTING IN THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.  THE GROUND ACROSS THE REGION IS
SATURATED FROM THE HEAVY RAINS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE...A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING.  THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
ALL BUT THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

ALSO...WE HAVE ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.  UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...MUCH OF THE TIME
WILL BE DRY BUT DO EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOCATIONS TO SEE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT....
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS THE AREA AND LAPSE RATES BEGIN
TO BECOME MORE STABLE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FOG PATCHES
WILL LIKELY FORM AGAIN ACROSS SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS DUE TO
SATURATED GROUND AS WELL AS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY...
ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM CANADA. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN ONCE AGAIN WITH H5 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -20C.
HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE JUST SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMALS. USED A BLEND
OF WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AS THE MAV HIGHS
SEEM A BIT TOO WARM WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY-MONDAY
ONCE THE SATURDAY UPPER LOW MOVES OFF...NEW ENGLAND MOVES INTO A
WESTERLY FLOW WITH LOW PRESSURE LINGERING NORTH OF THE BORDER.  THE
BULK OF THE COLD POOL REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...POSSIBLY CLIPPING AREAS
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.  AS PER THE 00Z ECMWF...MUCH OF THE AIRMASS
DRIES ALTHOUGH LINGERING 60 PERCENT RH AT 850 MB SUGGESTS SOME
CLOUDS.  WE WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...SOUTHERN NH MAY REACH CHC POPS BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY.  TEMPS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REACH THE EQUIVALENT OF 850 MB
11-13C...SO MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW EDGES SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS
RETURNS THE COLD POOL OVERHEAD...500 MB TEMPS -15C TO -17C...AND
BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO NEW ENGLAND.  THIS LOOKS GOOD ENOUGH
TO BRING CHANCE POPS...INCREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST AREAS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MIXED LAYER TEMPS DROP TO 8-10C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT LINGERING COLD
AIR ALOFT AND MOISTURE.  WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN NORTHERN MASS AND
SOUTHERN NH...DIMINISHING LATE.  THIS COVERAGE MAY BE TOO
CONSERVATIVE OWING TO THE FORECAST EXTENT OF THE UPPER COLD AIR.
STAY TUNED.  MIXED LAYER TEMPS REMAIN 8-10C SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN
THE 70S.

THURSDAY...UPPER TROF MOVES OFF...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  SHOULD
BE A DRY DAY.  MIXED LAYER TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 12C...MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE BACK IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT. MAIN
CONCENTRATION AT 18Z IS FROM BDL-PVD AND SREF PROBS FOR CAPE>500 J/KG
IS CAPTURING THIS AREA VERY WELL. SREF SUGGESTS GREATEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF I95
CORRIDOR. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE
HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY TSTMS...OTHERWISE VFR CIGS EXPECTED.
MEANWHILE...STRATUS DECK SOUTH OF THE CAPE IS ERODING SO MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FMH-HYA-ACK.

TONIGHT...WDLY SCT MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. IFR ST/FOG MAY DEVELOP AT ACK BY 00Z...AND
OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS AND HYA/FMH AFT 06Z.

SATURDAY...LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ASSOCD WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
14-18Z...PRIMARILY MHT-ORH-BOS. RAPID DRYING OCCURRING AFT 18Z WITH
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.  ALSO AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN FOG EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...AREAS OF FOG REMAINED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST WATERS LATE THIS
MORNING.  HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT THE FOG TO BURNOFF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL MAY AFFECT OUT
WATERS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHRA AND TSRA WITH SOME LIMITED VSBYS IN FOG PATCHES
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXCEPT NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

UNDERCUT WNA SEAS BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY SWELL MAY ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 5 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. MORNING FOG PATCHES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SEAS MAY
REACH 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MON AND TUE...NO HEADLINES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FFABOX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A LOWEST MAXIMUM RECORD WAS TIED AT WORCESTER REGIONAL AIRPORT. THE LOWEST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 62 DEGREES JULY 2 2009 TIES JULY 2 1986.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>021-
     026.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-
     015.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/FRANK/STRAUSS
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 031815
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
215 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST MOVES TO QUEBEC SAT FORCING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES OFF. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH
DRY WEATHER THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING.  LOW CLOUDS REMAINED ACROSS EASTERN MA AT MID
MORNING...BUT THESE TO SHOULD BURNOFF AT MOST OF THESE PLACES BY NOON.
ENOUGH SUNSHINE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD PUSH HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE ACROSS MOST LOCALES.

THE MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE EXPECTED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS A RESULT OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT WILL COMBINE
WITH THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY.  AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW
MONTHS...THE GFS MODEL IS OVERDONE WITH THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND
TOO MUCH CAPE.  NONETHELESS...500 MB COLD POOL OF -14C WILL STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND SHOULD RESULT IN 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE.  0 TO
6 KM SHEAR ARE FAIRLY WEAK GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS.

ALL IN ALL...PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...COLD POOL ALOFTS OFTEN OVER PERFORM IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.  THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HAIL IN THE
FORECAST.  REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL ARE LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.  HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE AND PRODUCE PENNY TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL.  TOUGH TO PINPOINT
WHERE EXACTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE...BUT THE SREF
PROBABILITIES INDICATE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

A BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE WEAK WINDS ALOFT...RESULTING IN THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.  THE GROUND ACROSS THE REGION IS
SATURATED FROM THE HEAVY RAINS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE...A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING.  THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
ALL BUT THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

ALSO...WE HAVE ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.  UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...MUCH OF THE TIME
WILL BE DRY BUT DO EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOCATIONS TO SEE
MEASURABLE RAINFALL BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT....
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS THE AREA AND LAPSE RATES BEGIN
TO BECOME MORE STABLE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FOG PATCHES
WILL LIKELY FORM AGAIN ACROSS SOME OF THE SHELTERED VALLEYS DUE TO
SATURATED GROUND AS WELL AS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY...
ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM CANADA. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN ONCE AGAIN WITH H5 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -20C.
HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE JUST SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMALS. USED A BLEND
OF WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AS THE MAV HIGHS
SEEM A BIT TOO WARM WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY-MONDAY
ONCE THE SATURDAY UPPER LOW MOVES OFF...NEW ENGLAND MOVES INTO A
WESTERLY FLOW WITH LOW PRESSURE LINGERING NORTH OF THE BORDER.  THE
BULK OF THE COLD POOL REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...POSSIBLY CLIPPING AREAS
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.  AS PER THE 00Z ECMWF...MUCH OF THE AIRMASS
DRIES ALTHOUGH LINGERING 60 PERCENT RH AT 850 MB SUGGESTS SOME
CLOUDS.  WE WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH OF THE MASS
PIKE...SOUTHERN NH MAY REACH CHC POPS BRIEFLY LATE MONDAY.  TEMPS AT
THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER REACH THE EQUIVALENT OF 850 MB
11-13C...SO MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW EDGES SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS
RETURNS THE COLD POOL OVERHEAD...500 MB TEMPS -15C TO -17C...AND
BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO NEW ENGLAND.  THIS LOOKS GOOD ENOUGH
TO BRING CHANCE POPS...INCREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
MOST AREAS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MIXED LAYER TEMPS DROP TO 8-10C...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT LINGERING COLD
AIR ALOFT AND MOISTURE.  WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN NORTHERN MASS AND
SOUTHERN NH...DIMINISHING LATE.  THIS COVERAGE MAY BE TOO
CONSERVATIVE OWING TO THE FORECAST EXTENT OF THE UPPER COLD AIR.
STAY TUNED.  MIXED LAYER TEMPS REMAIN 8-10C SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS IN
THE 70S.

THURSDAY...UPPER TROF MOVES OFF...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  SHOULD
BE A DRY DAY.  MIXED LAYER TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 12C...MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE BACK IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT. MAIN
CONCENTRATION AT 18Z IS FROM BDL-PVD AND SREF PROBS FOR CAPE>500 J/KG
IS CAPTURING THIS AREA VERY WELL. SREF SUGGESTS GREATEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF I95
CORRIDOR. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOUTS AND POSSIBLE
HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY TSTMS...OTHERWISE VFR CIGS EXPECTED.
MEANWHILE...STRATUS DECK SOUTH OF THE CAPE IS ERODING SO MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FMH-HYA-ACK.

TONIGHT...WDLY SCT MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EARLY...OTHERWSIE VFR. IFR ST/FOG MAY DEVELOP AT ACK BY 00Z...AND
OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS AND HYA/FMH AFT 06Z.

SATURDAY...LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ASSOCD WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
14-18Z...PRIMARILY MHT-ORH-BOS. RAPID DRYING OCCURRING AFT 18Z WITH
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.  ALSO AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN FOG EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...AREAS OF FOG REMAINED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST WATERS LATE THIS
MORNING.  HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT THE FOG TO BURNOFF BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL MAY AFFECT OUT
WATERS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHRA AND TSRA WITH SOME LIMITED VSBYS IN FOG PATCHES
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXCEPT NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

UNDERCUT WNA SEAS BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY SWELL MAY ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 5 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. MORNING FOG PATCHES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SEAS MAY
REACH 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MON AND TUE...NO HEADLINES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FFABOX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A LOWEST MAXIMUM RECORD WAS TIED AT WORCESTER REGIONAL AIRPORT. THE LOWEST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 62 DEGREES JULY 2 2009 TIES JULY 2 1986.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>021-
     026.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-
     015.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/FRANK/STRAUSS
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KALY 031735
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
135 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR WET AND COOL
WEATHER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
TODAY. HOWEVER...OUR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH
SOME SURFACE HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR
THE FOURTH OF JULY...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THERE ARE SOME THICKER
PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS AS WELL...BUT ENOUGH HEATING HAS OCCURRED TO
ALLOW SBCAPE VALUES TO RISE TO AROUND 500-1000 J/KG ALREADY. FARTHER
WEST...GREATER EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWERS HAVE LIMITED
INSTABILITY. SURFACE TROF NOT TOO WELL RESOLVED IN OBS DATA...SEEMS
TO BE POSITIONED CLOSE TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. FROM 12Z
ALB SOUNDING...COLD ADVECTION NOTED WITH BACKING FLOW IN THE LOWEST
10 KFT...WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE LAYER. PWAT VALUES
HAVE ALSO DROPPED TO AROUND 1.20". BASED ON THIS DATA...FLASH FLOOD
THREAT APPEARS TO BE A LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND THE WATCH
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW AS WELL BUT NOT ZERO. BEST
SBCAPE SHOULD BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...BUT THE EVENTUAL
MAGNITUDE IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...AS IS FLOW ALOFT...SO NOT EXPECTED STRONG WIND
GUSTS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY ROBUST STORMS THAT DEVELOP /OTHER
THAN HEAVY RAIN THREAT MENTIONED ABOVE/ IS LIKELY SMALL HAIL. WBZERO
HEIGHTS AROUND 9.5 KFT AND 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0C/KM.
STILL...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN GRIDDED FORECAST...AS
COVERAGE OF HAIL PRODUCING STORMS SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH PCPN IN THIS LONG
STRETCH...ALTHOUGH WITH CAPES ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST
POPS ONCE AGAIN FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
LOOKS TO FEEL RELATIVELY COOL ON THE FOURTH AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEPARTING SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FA SHOULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH COMMON. THIS WILL ACTUALLY START
TO DRY UP SOME OF THE SATURATED GROUND. HAVE HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH MORE SUN THAN RECENT DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND CRESTS ACROSS FA. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WHICH IS
EVERY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY
WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...RESULTING
IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S AND 70S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE TROF AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL PRETTY MUCH BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN BETTER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION...HIGHS FROM 70 TO 80...AND A CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE FOR
THURSDAY AND EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO THE
MID 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CIGS ALL THE WAY THROUGH.  MVFR FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WITH THREAT OF SHRA IN AREA AND VERY MOIST GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR...ESPECIALLY GFL...UNTIL A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH SLIDES
ACROSS THE AIRPORTS...FINALLY BRINGING IN SOME DRIER ATMOSPHERE...
BUT ALSO SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS.  HAVE INCLUDED A WIND SHEAR GROUP
FOR MARGINAL CONDITIONS ALB FOR THEIR MORNING FLIGHT VOLUME.  CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT WELL ON AMERICA`S 233RD BIRTHDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN...AND WITH THE ABUNDANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE FILLING IN FROM WET GROUND...VICINITY FIREWORKS WILL
ONLY ADD A HAZE DIMENSION TO PROBABLE FOG FORMATION TOWARD DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT PM...MVFR HZ/BR LIKELY DEVELOPING.
SUN-TUE...VFR...SLGT CHC PM SPRINKLES.  PSBL EARLY AM MVFR BR.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AND SATURATED GROUND IN MOST
AREAS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 55 TO 80 PERCENT
TODAY...RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO
65 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. FLOW HAS INCREASED WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN STORMS MOVING ALONG. ALSO COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE CELLS
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED...SO FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. STILL...SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WHICH
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
POSSIBLE PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

RIVERS HAVE RECEDED IN WAKE OF RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL RISES ARE UNLIKELY SINCE ANY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL BE ISOLATED AND NOT GREAT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO FALL OVER
ENTIRE RIVER BASINS.

FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HYDRO
IMPACTS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTAINING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE UNLIKELY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES IN.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE
QUITE UNCERTAIN AS TO THE TIMING...TRACK AND DURATION OF YET ANOTHER
CUT-OFF LOW THAT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...JPV/BGM

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 031728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR WET
AND COOL WEATHER WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TODAY. HOWEVER...OUR CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS UPPER LOW
COMBINED WITH SOME SURFACE HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN. MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY...ALTHOUGH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. THERE ARE SOME THICKER
PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS AS WELL...BUT ENOUGH HEATING HAS OCCURRED TO
ALLOW SBCAPE VALUES TO RISE TO AROUND 500-1000 J/KG ALREADY. FARTHER
WEST...GREATER EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWERS HAVE LIMITED
INSTABILITY. SURFACE TROF NOT TOO WELL RESOLVED IN OBS DATA...SEEMS
TO BE POSITIONED CLOSE TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. FROM 12Z
ALB SOUNDING...COLD ADVECTION NOTED WITH BACKING FLOW IN THE LOWEST
10 KFT...WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE LAYER. PWAT VALUES
HAVE ALSO DROPPED TO AROUND 1.20". BASED ON THIS DATA...FLASH FLOOD
THREAT APPEARS TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW PRODUCING SLOW
MOVING CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD MITIGATE ABOVE FACTORS AND STILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DROP THE
WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW AS WELL BUT NOT ZERO. BEST
SBCAPE SHOULD BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...BUT THE EVENTUAL
MAGNITUDE IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...AS IS FLOW ALOFT...SO NOT EXPECTED STRONG WIND
GUSTS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY ROBUST STORMS THAT DEVELOP /OTHER
THAN HEAVY RAIN THREAT MENTIONED ABOVE/ IS LIKELY SMALL HAIL. WBZERO
HEIGHTS AROUND 9.5 KFT AND 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0C/KM.
STILL...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN GRIDDED FORECAST...AS
COVERAGE OF HAIL PRODUCING STORMS SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED.


PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...

STILL A THREAT OF MORE FLASH FLOODING TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC...SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH FA...SURFACE
HEATING...CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...PWATS AROUND 1.5
INCHES...H10-H8 THETA-E RIDGE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY ALTHOUGH WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...AND H7 STEERING WINDS SW-W AT 15 KTS OR
LESS...ALL COMBINE TO ONCE AGAIN GIVE US THE THREAT OF MORE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. REFER TO HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION
BELOW AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH (ALBFFAALY) FOR SPECIFIC RAINFALL
CONCERNS. HAVE FFA FROM NOON TO 8 PM AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CLOSELY TIED TO SURFACE HEATING. AS FOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO BE IN THE 70S...EXCEPT FOR SOME MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR TONIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY
LOW CHANCE POPS EXCEPT FOR AREA FROM WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO
SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE 40+ POPS DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO H5 LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROF. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE 50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH PCPN IN THIS LONG
STRETCH...ALTHOUGH WITH CAPES ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST
POPS ONCE AGAIN FROM THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT
LOOKS TO FEEL RELATIVELY COOL ON THE FOURTH AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEPARTING SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FA SHOULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH COMMON. THIS WILL ACTUALLY START
TO DRY UP SOME OF THE SATURATED GROUND. HAVE HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH MORE SUN THAN RECENT DAYS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO AND CRESTS ACROSS FA. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WHICH IS
EVERY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 80 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY
WORKS ITS WAY EAST JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...RESULTING
IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S AND 70S...ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE TROF AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL PRETTY MUCH BE OUT OF THE PICTURE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN BETTER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION...HIGHS FROM 70 TO 80...AND A CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE FOR
THURSDAY AND EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO THE
MID 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CIGS ALL THE WAY THROUGH.  MVFR FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WITH THREAT OF SHRA IN AREA AND VERY MOIST GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR...ESPECIALLY GFL...UNTIL A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH SLIDES
ACROSS THE AIRPORTS...FINALLY BRINGING IN SOME DRIER ATMOSPHERE...
BUT ALSO SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS.  HAVE INCLUDED A WIND SHEAR GROUP
FOR MARGINAL CONDITIONS ALB FOR THEIR MORNING FLIGHT VOLUME.  CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT WELL ON AMERICA`S 233RD BIRTHDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN...AND WITH THE ABUNDANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE FILLING IN FROM WET GROUND...VICINITY FIREWORKS WILL
ONLY ADD A HAZE DIMENSION TO PROBABLE FOG FORMATION TOWARD DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT PM...MVFR HZ/BR LIKELY DEVELOPING.
SUN-TUE...VFR...SLGT CHC PM SPRINKLES.  PSBL EARLY AM MVFR BR.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AND SATURATED GROUND IN MOST
AREAS.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 55 TO 80 PERCENT
TODAY...RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40 TO
65 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY EVENING...THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED SINCE THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP THROUGH NOON TODAY. HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDER
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SUN BEGINS
TO HEAT AND DESTABILIZE THE AIR WHICH IS STILL QUITE MOIST AT
LOWER LEVELS UNDERNEATH A COLD CUTOFF LOW. PWATS ON THE EVENING
SOUNDINGS WERE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION...ABOUT 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND STEERING WINDS WEAK SO THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW MOVING HP CELLS WILL AGAIN BE THE CASE. IN
ADDITION...CELLS MAY TRAIN OR FOLLOW ONE ANOTHER OVER THE SAME
AREA. WITH MUCH OF THE AREA HAVING RECENTLY HAD 4 INCHES OR MORE
OF RAIN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE GROUND IS SATURATED SO RAPID
RUNOFF WILL OCCUR WHEREVER HEAVY RAIN FALLS. THEREFORE WE HAVE
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR
BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 12 NOON AND 8 PM.

A FEW RIVERS HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAINS...THE HOOSIC
RIVER IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND EASTERN NEW YORK CAME UP TWO
FEET THURSDAY EVENING WITH A RISE OF ONE TO TWO FEET ON THE
HOUSATONIC RIVER IN MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT. THE HEAVY
STORMS WEDNESDAY CAUSED A FOUR FOOT RISE ON THE NORMANS KILL
JUST SOUTH OF ALBANY. THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK RIVERS HAVE ONLY
BEEN SLIGHTLY AFFECTED SINCE ONLY SMALL PARTS OF THEIR DRAINAGES
HAD HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...RCK