[top]
000
FXUS62 KJAX 040128
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
928 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ENHANCED SCATTERED
STORMS ACROSS NE FL AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING
NEAR AND SOUTH OF A MEANDERING SURFACE FRONT THAT RESIDES NEAR THE
FL-GA STATE LINE. CONVECTION IS NOW ON THE WANE AS INSTABILITY
DECREASES FOLLOWING SUNSET.
FOR THE UPDATE...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS THIS EVENING FOR
OUR FL ZONES AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER SOUTHWARD STABILIZING
THE AIRMASS ACROSS GA. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS WINDS
SHIFT MORE WNW AND DEW PTS FALL. MINS SAT MORNING SHOULD RANGE
FROM LOW-MID 60S ACROSS SE GA TO THE LOW 70S NE FL. PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE FL WHERE RAIN FELL TODAY.
OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE JAX CWA TOMORROW
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF AFTN TSRA MAINLY ACROSS OUR SE FL ZONES
(PUTNAM...MARION...FLAGLER) WHERE A LATE AFTN SEA BREEZE COLLISION
MAY SPARK CONVECTION WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESIDE.
WLY FLOW WILL RAISE AFTN TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ALL THE
WAY TO THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...FL TAF SITES RECEIVED SOME RAIN TODAY AND WITH WET
GROUND ARE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE MVFR CONDS LATER TONIGHT MAINLY FOR
GROUND FOG.
&&
.MARINE...NO HEADLINES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN SCEC WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED. SOUTH WINDS AT THE BUOYS ARE BEGINNING TO
SHIFT TO SW AS EXPECTED. NO CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 66 97 69 96 / 10 10 10 40
SSI 76 92 76 92 / 20 20 10 30
JAX 72 95 73 95 / 20 20 10 30
SGJ 74 92 75 92 / 20 20 10 20
GNV 71 96 72 94 / 20 20 10 20
OCF 73 95 72 93 / 20 20 10 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR BAKER-COLUMBIA-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ENYEDI/TRABERT/MCALLISTER
[top]
000
FXUS62 KKEY 040116
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
920 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS AN AREA OF LIGHT RAINFALL OVER THE NEARSHORE AND
OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER KEYS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX
DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SKY COVER RANGES FROM VARIABLY CLOUDY IN THE UPPER KEYS TO
MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS. WINDS OVER LAND ARE
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE NORTHWEST
TO NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 80S. ONLY
ABOUT THREE DEGREES OF COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO LIGHT TO
GENTLE SURFACE WINDS OVER WATER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S.
.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
A WEAK ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE
FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. FARTHER NORTH...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MOIST
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUE JUST
ABOVE ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...PWAT VALUES MAY BE JUST
ABOVE TWO INCHES...WHICH WOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.
THERE IS ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. BE THAT AS IT MAY...LACK OF A
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER SHOULD LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
TONIGHT. THE CURRENT ZONE FORECASTS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS HAS ALREADY
BEEN UPDATED TO RECOMBINE ZONES. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
GENTLE NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES THIS EVENING SHOULD TRANSITION TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS...WITH JUST FEW-SCT CLOUDS FL025-035.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1957...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 95 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 3RD...A RECORD
WHICH STILL STANDS 52 YEARS LATER.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION//NOWCASTS...................DFM
DATA ACQUISITION.....................TF
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
[top]
000
FXUS62 KMLB 040107
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
907 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVED INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE
NORTH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON MANAGED TO HOLD TOGETHER ALL THE WAY
INTO SOUTHERN BREVARD THIS EVENING...AIDED BY OUTFLOW FROM THE
STORMS THAT WERE FORMING ALONG IT. NUMEROUS OTHER
BOUNDARIES...INCLUDING ONE THAT PUSHED UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND THE
VERY WEAK EAST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLIDED OVER BREVARD AND OSCEOLA
COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY EVENING...RESULTING IN A FEW STRONG...AND
ONE SEVERE STORM.
MOST OF THE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS HAVE EXHAUSTED THEMSELVES...AND
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...NO REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
BEYOND 10 PM. LINGERING ACTIVITY OVER OSCEOLA AND SAINT LUCIE
COUNTIES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OR PUSH OFFSHORE. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND MILD TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SAT-SUN...A DEEP SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL DRIFT
INTO THE WRN ATLC OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH SUPPRESSED OVER THE FL STRAITS. DLM WRLY FLOW WILL
RESULT...THOUGH THE LOW LVL PGRAD WILL RELAX AS THE CYCLONIC
CENTER OF THE TROF PUSHES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE TO FORM EACH AFTN.
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED SAT AS THE WRLY FLOW PUSHES A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW RH AIR INTO THE N HALF OF FL...POPS CAPPED
AT 20-30%. RH WILL INCREASE SUN AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT
AND THE REMNANT TROF DAMPENS AND LIFTS BACK TO THE N...POPS 30-50%.
MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR CLIMO AVG...SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE INTERIOR AS
THE WRLYS KEEP THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE PINNED OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION...LINGERING SHRA/TSRA OVER OSCEOLA AND BREVARD COUNTIES
WILL DIMINISH BY 03Z. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
MOSES/PENDERGRAST
[top]
000
FXUS62 KTAE 040102
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
900 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPPED SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
ACROSS OUR AL AND GA ZONES. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AND MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST. COVERAGE WAS
GENERALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM BAY THROUGH DIXIE AND
INCLUDED LAFAYETTE WHICH WAS WELL FORECAST BY THE WRF. ALL STORMS
STAYED WELL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. FOR OVERNIGHT...WE EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
.MARINE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST WEST LOW SEAS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...WITH ALL OF FRIDAY`S CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE TAF SITES...AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NW...ONLY WENT WITH AN MVFR TEMPO FOR VIS OVERNIGHT AT VLD. THIS
EVENING...PFN IS STILL EXPERIENCING SOME MINOR MVFR SMOKE FROM AN
EARLIER CONTROLLED BURN...BUT EXPECT THIS TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO VFR LEVELS. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL BUT BAY...GULF AND DIXIE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
BARRY/GOULD
[top]
000
FXUS62 KMFL 040048
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
848 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND MOVED OFFSHORE FAIRLY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE REGION WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF A MID/UPR TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED DRY AIR SWINGING SOUTH THROUGH NCNTRL FL...BUT THERE
REMAINS LITTLE SUPPORT FOR INITIATING NEW STORMS AT THIS POINT.
GIVEN WE ARE UNDER WRLY FLOW A SHOWER OR STORM COULD ROLL ONSHORE
ACROSS COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME...BUT OVERALL
CHANCES ARE LOW. SINCE CONVECTION HAS CLEARED EARLY AND THERE WAS
SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND LAST NIGHT I`VE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO
INTERIOR AREAS LATE TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR SOME...BUT GIVEN MUCH LESS
OVERALL RAINFALL TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY DO NOT EXPECT THIS
TO BE WIDESPREAD.
THE FLOOD WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR CENTRAL GLADES COUNTY AS ROAD
CLOSURES REMAIN...AND STATE ROAD 78 HAS NOW BEEN CLOSED FROM
ORTONA WEST. FISHEATING CREEK NEAR PALMDALE CONTINUES TO RISE
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY...AND WITH NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THE
FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THERE AS WELL.
/STRASSBERG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
AVIATION...LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN ALREADY. HAVE
LEFT IN TEMPOS FOR TS IN KPBI, KFLL AND KFXE WITH THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS TO IFR AT KFLL. ALL CONDITIONS GO VFR BY 02Z. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AT THAT TIME THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
SEABREEZES CAN BE EXPECT AGAIN ON SATURDAY STARTING 17Z/18Z
TIME FRAME WITH VCTS IN ALL TERMINALS DRIVEN AGAIN BY SEABREEZES
AND OUTFLOWS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE AXIS HAS FINALLY SHIFTED INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA, ALBEIT JUST BARELY, AND THIS HAS ALLOWED THE SEA BREEZE
TO PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND, AT LEAST WITH MIAMI-DADE CO, WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE RIDGE DOES TILT SOUTH WITH HEIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS DEEP MOISTURE IS STILL BEING
TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE SW FLOW CUTTING ACROSS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. PWATS IN MIAMI AND KEYS ARE DOWN TO AROUND 1.7-1.9"
WITH PWATS AROUND THE LAKE STILL A LITTLE ABOVE 2". A LITTLE MID
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ALSO CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS S FL SLIGHTLY
SUPPRESSING ACTIVITY, BUT A SHORT WAVE IS PROVIDING DIVERGENCE
ALOFT FROM THERE WHICH STILL MAY ALLOW THINGS TO POP ONCE
BOUNDARIES BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION... THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO... AND IS PROVIDING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MENTIONED
ABOVE. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT TO TSRA THROUGH
SAT BEFORE MOVING EAST OF S FL. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT
NORTHWARD SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK TO AROUND THE LAKE REGION, BUT
BEHIND THE TROUGH, FOR A FEW DAYS, S FL WILL BE IN A GENERAL N
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE OCCASIONAL S WV KICKING THROUGH AND WITH AN
OVERALL SW STEERING THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST WILL STILL RECEIVE
AT LEAST SCT POPS. THE WEST COAST WILL STILL SLIGHTLY LESS... BUT
ISOLD TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
AVIATION...CONVECTION HAS HELD OFF BUT STRONG HEATING WITH TEMPS
REACHING 93F PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST AND THE SEA BREEZE STARTING
TO GET A PUSH INLAND...ALBEIT SLOWLY...IS STILL EXPECTED TO IGNITE
TSRA ACROSS THE AREA. RADAR TRENDS SHOW CELLS ARE STRUGGLING TO GET
GOING...SO IT MAY REQUIRE AN ADDITIONAL "PUSH" FROM OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR AREAS. AT ANY RATE...STORMS SEEM
TO BE A GOOD BET AND FOCUSED ACROSS THE EAST COAST SO ADDED TEMPO
TSRA IN MVFR CONDITIONS. OF COURSE IFR/LIFR IS POSSIBLE BUT WOULD BE
BRIEF. STRONG GUSTS OVER 30 KT IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. /DG
MARINE...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE VICINITY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS AT 15KTS OR LESS AND SEAS AT 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD... OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 90 76 89 / 20 50 30 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 90 77 89 / 20 50 30 50
MIAMI 78 91 78 89 / 20 50 30 50
NAPLES 76 91 76 89 / 20 50 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...65/GS
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...18/GR
[top]
000
FXUS62 KTBW 040021
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
821 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...DRY AIR IS MAKING GOOD HEADWAY OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY QUICKLY WANING ACROSS
WESTERN FLORIDA. HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF AN ISOLATED STORM IN
THROUGH THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE QUITE SLIM. A NICE
NIGHT SHOULD ENSUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE STARS VISIBLE THAN
HAVE BEEN SEEN IN THE LAST FEW DAYS. WILL UPDATE THE TEXT PRODUCTS
SHORTLY TO REFLECT THE SLIGHT CHANGE IN PRECIP TIMING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. ALOHA.
&&
.AVIATION 04/00 - 04/24)...VFR. ANY TSRA SAT WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO
CARRY IN THE TAF/S...EXCEPT KFMY AND KRSW HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ODDS
AND WILL HAVE VCTS AND CB AFT 18Z. WEST WINDS BACK TO WSW AND
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KFMY AND KRSW. WINDS
ON SAT 240-280 DEGREES AT 7-11KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 78 93 78 91 / 20 30 20 40
FMY 75 93 75 91 / 20 50 20 50
GIF 76 96 76 94 / 20 30 20 40
SRQ 76 91 76 90 / 20 30 20 40
BKV 72 94 72 92 / 20 20 10 30
SPG 80 92 80 91 / 20 30 20 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...05/CANTIN
AVIATION...09/RUDE
000
FXUS62 KMFL 040004
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
804 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION...LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN ALREADY. HAVE
LEFT IN TEMPOS FOR TS IN KPBI, KFLL AND KFXE WITH THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS TO IFR AT KFLL. ALL CONDITIONS GO VFR BY 02Z. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AT THAT TIME THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
SEABREEZES CAN BE EXPECT AGAIN ON SATURDAY STARTING 17Z/18Z
TIME FRAME WITH VCTS IN ALL TERMINALS DRIVEN AGAIN BY SEABREEZES
AND OUTFLOWS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE AXIS HAS FINALLY SHIFTED INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA, ALBEIT JUST BARELY, AND THIS HAS ALLOWED THE SEA BREEZE
TO PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND, AT LEAST WITH MIAMI-DADE CO, WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE RIDGE DOES TILT SOUTH WITH HEIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS DEEP MOISTURE IS STILL BEING
TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE SW FLOW CUTTING ACROSS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. PWATS IN MIAMI AND KEYS ARE DOWN TO AROUND 1.7-1.9"
WITH PWATS AROUND THE LAKE STILL A LITTLE ABOVE 2". A LITTLE MID
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ALSO CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS S FL SLIGHTLY
SUPPRESSING ACTIVITY, BUT A SHORT WAVE IS PROVIDING DIVERGENCE
ALOFT FROM THERE WHICH STILL MAY ALLOW THINGS TO POP ONCE
BOUNDARIES BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION... THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO... AND IS PROVIDING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MENTIONED
ABOVE. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT TO TSRA THROUGH
SAT BEFORE MOVING EAST OF S FL. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT
NORTHWARD SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK TO AROUND THE LAKE REGION, BUT
BEHIND THE TROUGH, FOR A FEW DAYS, S FL WILL BE IN A GENERAL N
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE OCCASIONAL S WV KICKING THROUGH AND WITH AN
OVERALL SW STEERING THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST WILL STILL RECEIVE
AT LEAST SCT POPS. THE WEST COAST WILL STILL SLIGHTLY LESS... BUT
ISOLD TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
AVIATION...CONVECTION HAS HELD OFF BUT STRONG HEATING WITH TEMPS
REACHING 93F PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST AND THE SEA BREEZE STARTING
TO GET A PUSH INLAND...ALBEIT SLOWLY...IS STILL EXPECTED TO IGNITE
TSRA ACROSS THE AREA. RADAR TRENDS SHOW CELLS ARE STRUGGLING TO GET
GOING...SO IT MAY REQUIRE AN ADDITIONAL "PUSH" FROM OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR AREAS. AT ANY RATE...STORMS SEEM
TO BE A GOOD BET AND FOCUSED ACROSS THE EAST COAST SO ADDED TEMPO
TSRA IN MVFR CONDITIONS. OF COURSE IFR/LIFR IS POSSIBLE BUT WOULD BE
BRIEF. STRONG GUSTS OVER 30 KT IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. /DG
MARINE...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE VICINITY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS AT 15KTS OR LESS AND SEAS AT 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD... OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 90 76 89 / 50 50 30 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 90 77 89 / 50 50 30 50
MIAMI 78 91 78 89 / 40 50 30 50
NAPLES 76 91 76 89 / 20 50 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...65/GS
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...18/GR
000
FXUS62 KTAE 031905
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
305 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA EXTENDING EAST TO WEST FROM NEAR VALDOSTA TO
AROUND TALLAHASSEE TO MOBILE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE
THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND COAST...THEN STALLING AND DISSIPATING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S OVER SOUTH GA AND SE ALABAMA...WHILE THEY REMAIN IN
THE LOW 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
EXPECT THIS DRIER AIR TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FILL IN OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH TOWARD THE
COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS.
ALTHOUGH THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO DE-AMPLIFY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES BEGINS TO FILL...ONE OR TWO WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO BETTER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A FAMILIAR PATTERN...TROUGH IN THE EAST AND
RIDGING IN THE WEST WITH A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP.
THE EXTENDED REMAINS SOMEWHAT DISTURBED AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
MOVE OVER THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER AIR PATTERN AS THE
RIDGE IN THE WEST BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PRODUCING A
TROUGH IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SEPARATING THE EAST-WEST
ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA. HGTS WILL BE ON THE
RISE AGAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION DURING THE PERIOD.
SO...POPS WILL BE AT NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY JULY. TEMPS WILL BE
VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THE MAX
TEMPS. THIS WILL BE A WELCOMED CHANGE.
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE
MARINE THROUGH THE SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. A PERIOD OR TWO WITH CAUTIONARY
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...ALL MENTION OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE FORECAST AT TLH AND VLD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. VSBY COULD DROP BACK TO MVFR
IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SAT AT VLD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE WATCH IN FL TO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR SAT DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF RH BELOW 35 PERCENT
COMBINED WITH HIGH DISPERSION INDICES. WILL KEEP GULF...FRANKLIN AND
DIXIE OUT OF THE WARNING. UP IN SE AL...WE ARE GETTING RH BELOW 30
PERCENT AND THE KBDI IS NOW OVER 500. THE WIND IS QUESTIONABLE
THOUGH. SINCE WE ONLY NEED 10 MPH WINDS...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
WATCH FOR OUR 5 SE AL ZONES FOR SAT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 68 98 76 94 74 / 10 10 0 30 30
PANAMA CITY 75 93 80 91 78 / 10 20 10 30 30
DOTHAN 66 98 75 95 75 / 10 0 0 30 40
ALBANY 67 98 74 93 74 / 10 0 0 30 40
VALDOSTA 67 98 73 94 74 / 10 10 0 30 30
CROSS CITY 72 95 75 93 74 / 20 30 20 30 30
APALACHICOLA 76 93 79 91 78 / 10 20 10 30 30
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
CALHOUN...GADSDEN...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...
JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
WASHINGTON.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT/MARINE...GIBBS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
LONG TERM...WATSON
000
FXUS62 KKEY 031905
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
305 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200 MB...LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF
200 AM...DEPICT THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE MAIN AXIS OF A
SEMI-PERMANENT TROUGH POSITIONED FROM UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF THAT FEATURE...THERE IS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NOW APPROACHING BELIZE. CLOSER
TO THE KEYS...MID AND UPPER RIDGING IS EVIDENT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE
KEYS...WITH ONE SMALLER SCALE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER LOCATED CENTERED
NEAR BUOY 42001 IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND TROPICAL ANALYSIS
ILLUSTRATING ANOTHER DEEP RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM NEAR 30N 60W SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR ANDROS ISLAND. THUS...THE
FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN A COL REGION
BETWEEN THE BIFURCATED RIDGE.
IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB...LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS OF 200 PM
DETAIL A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS RATHER FAR SOUTHWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEW ORLEANS.
FARTHER SOUTH...A WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED ALONG THE 25TH
PARALLEL FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WESTWARD TO ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE KEYS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. LATEST VWP (VAD WIND PROFILER)
IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW AVERAGING 5
KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 8 KFT ABOVE KEY WEST.
.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
KEYS ISLAND CHAIN AND ADJOINING WATERS. TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 90
DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. RADAR ONLY DETECTS A FEW
SHOWERS FIRING UP ALONG A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
TIP OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...DADE COUNTY. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE
REEF ARE REGISTERING VARIABLE WINDS AT LESS THAN 5 KNOTS...WITH
ISLAND SENSORS REGISTERING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT LESS THAN 6 MPH.
.SHORT TERM...IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF...NAM..GFS LARGE SCALE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH IMPACTING FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT
LEAST INDEPENDENCE DAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEREAFTER A NEAR
590 DM RIDGING NOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL FINALLY BUILD
EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR RISING HEIGHTS AND A DRYING OF THE
MID-LEVELS...FINALLY BEGINNING TO CURVE LARGE SCALE RAIN CHANCES TO
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY.
IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB...A SPLIT LOWER LEVEL
RIDGING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH THE KEYS REMAINING IN A COL ZONE
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW NIGHT. THEREAFTER...CONSISTENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT A WEAK LOWER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS A RESULT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD TAKE SOME SOUTHEAST COMPONENT OVER THE ISLANDS...IF NOT EAST
OR NORTHEAST. DAILY HI TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AROUND 90...BUT
MORE LIKELY WILL BE ONE OR TWO DEGREES BELOW 90 RATHER THAN ONE OR
TWO DEGREES ABOVE 90. GIVEN THE SPLIT RIDGING IN PLACE...12Z NAM AND
GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER DADE COUNTY AND THE EVERGLADES WILL HAVE A VERY SLOW SOUTH STORM
MOTION...ALLOWING FOR THESE SHOWERS OR COLLIDING BOUNDARIES TO REACH
FLORIDA BAY AND THE UPPER KEYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS
WELL AS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OFFSHORE OF THE UPPER KEYS. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...SLIGHTLY HIGHER ASCENT IS ALSO IN PLACE...SO AS A
RESULT...MIDDLE OF THE ROAD POPS FOR THE UPPER KEYS WILL BE
MAINTAINED THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
KEYS.
SO ON INDEPENDENCE DAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN PWAT(PRECIPITABLE
WATER BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES AND A WELL ALIGNED CUMULUS LINE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW EVENING...MIDDLE CHANCE POPS WILL BE
ADVERTISED FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN...AS WEAK ASCENT AND GOOD
MESOSCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE KEYS.
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES ARE INDICATED ATTM...FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL NOT HINTING THAT
MUCH MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL HAVE BLED IN ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANOTHER
GOOD AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF GOOD MESOSCALE FORCING. SO HAVE
DECIDED TO HOLD WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THESE PERIODS. THIS JUST
ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.
.EXTENDED...
MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200
MB...ALL LARGE SCALE MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE ARE CONSISTENT WITH
INDICATIONS THAT A 590-594 DM RIDGE AT 500 MB WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. THIS WILL ACT TO IMPEDE LARGE SCALE RAIN
CHANCES AND SEND DRY AIR DOWN TO MIDDLE LEVELS WHICH WILL WORK
AGAINST THE NORMALLY STRONG MESOSCALE PROCESSES IN PLACE AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS...MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...STRONGER
INDICATIONS CONTINUE WITH THE MODELS ESTABLISHING A LOWER TO MIDDLE
LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE KEYS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH
THE NAM AND GFS FORECASTED PWAT WILL RUN BETWEEN 1.50 AND 2.00
INCHES...THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK.
.MARINE...A SPLIT RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A LOWER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NEAR THE KEYS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN PULL NORTHWARD ON MONDAY...REMAINING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BECOMING SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK LOWER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE KEYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND INSIDE THE REEF WITHIN WELL DEVELOPED
CUMULUS CLOUDLINES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE MARINE WARNINGS OR
STATEMENTS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH WITH A FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED NEAR FL025. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHERN PENINSULAR FLORIDA MAY THREATEN THE KEYS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MTH HAVING A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY. AFTER 03Z...JUST SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
WITH BASES AOA 2500 FEET WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 81 90 81 90 / 20 40 40 20
MARATHON 81 92 81 92 / 20 40 40 20
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......FUENTES
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KMLB 031901
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
301 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THRU TONIGHT...AS EXPECTED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AHEAD OF FRONTAL TROUGH. NW STEERING FLOW WILL BRING THESE
STORMS INTO CENTRAL FL. LATE MORNING CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS AN
UNSTABLE ATMOS WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
DOWNBURST WINDS. LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED ALOFT BETWEEN 300-400
MB AS SHORTWAVE ROTATING ACROSS S GA SHARPENS UPPER TROUGH OVER
NORTH FL. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL THINK THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WHICH WOULD ENHANCE STORMS
COLLIDING WITH THE BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST. HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE
(30%) POPS IN THIS EVENING BUT THINK ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
BY MIDNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SAT-SUN...A DEEP SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL DRIFT
INTO THE WRN ATLC OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH SUPPRESSED OVER THE FL STRAITS. DLM WRLY FLOW WILL
RESULT...THOUGH THE LOW LVL PGRAD WILL RELAX AS THE CYCLONIC
CENTER OF THE TROF PUSHES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE TO FORM EACH AFTN.
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED SAT AS THE WRLY FLOW PUSHES A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW RH AIR INTO THE N HALF OF FL...POPS CAPPED
AT 20-30%. RH WILL INCREASE SUN AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT
AND THE REMNANT TROF DAMPENS AND LIFTS BACK TO THE N...POPS 30-50%.
MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR CLIMO AVG...SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE INTERIOR AS
THE WRLYS KEEP THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE PINNED OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES.
MON-THU...THE SHORT WAVE TROF WILL LIFT NE AND WEAKEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS BOTH SWING A REINFORCING LOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND STATES. AN ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL
TROF EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE MID SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE THE RECENT WX PATTERN OF PERSISTENT TROFFING OVER THE ERN
CONUS. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS FROM
MIGRATING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN THE FL KEYS. WRLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE...WHILE THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE BLOCKS ANY DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM PUSHING NWD. THIS WX PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE
ERN PENINSULA FOR DIURNAL PRECIP...THOUGH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
OVER THE GOMEX SHOULD KEEP TOTAL COVERAGE BLO 50%. MAX/MIN TEMPS
WILL BE NOMINAL FOR MID SUMMER.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCT TSRA WILL MOVE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AFFECTING MOST TERMINALS
THROUGH 00Z. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS OF 35
KNOTS OR GREATER. HAVE TEMPO IFR CONDS AND 15G30KT FOR MCO NORTHWARD
BTWN 19-21Z. SOME ACTIVITY MAY LINGER PAST 00Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
PRIMARY CONCERN THRU THIS EVENING WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING
STORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ESP VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD COASTS.
BUT ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP RIGHT AT THE COAST
SOUTH OF THE CAPE SHOULD THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOP. W/SW
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS.
SAT-TUE...DLM TROFFING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ERN SEABOARD...KEEPING
THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE BERMUDA HIGH SUPPRESSED OVER THE FL STRAITS
THRU THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SWRLY BREEZE
WILL RESULT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA/SW ATLC...SHOULD BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTN.
THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP WIND WAVES AOB 2FT NEARSHORE...AOB
3FT OFFSHORE WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY BREAKING UP ANY SWELL COMPONENT
THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD. THE OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL GENERATE CHOPPY...SHORT PERIOD SEAS OVER THE OPEN ATLC
FROM TIME TO TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 75 93 75 93 / 30 30 10 30
MCO 75 93 74 94 / 30 30 10 30
MLB 73 90 74 92 / 30 30 20 40
VRB 73 90 75 90 / 30 40 20 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
KELLY/WEITLICH
000
FXUS62 KJAX 031844
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
240 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
...LOWER RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED FOR 4TH OF JULY...
.SYNOPSIS...E US UPPER TROF HAS SHARPENED AND SHIFTED E AS LARGE
HIGH HAS BUILT OVER N TX. AS A RESULT...MOST MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED INTO N FL. SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPED BY
LATE MORNING OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
TEMPORARILY STABILIZED THAT AREA AND PRODUCED OUTFLOWS THAT
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TSTMS FROM NEAR JAX TO OCF. TEMPS OUTSIDE OF
RAIN AREAS ARE IN THE LOWER 90S.
.SHORT TERM...EXPECT TSTMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THRU THE AFTN
MAINLY ACROSS NE FL WILL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INTO SE GA MAINLY
FROM BRUNSWICK TO STATENVILLE AND POINTS S. ISOLD SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
DRY AIR WILL INFILTRATE MOST THE ENTIRE AREA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY...
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND LESS OVERALL CONVECTION. NAM BRINGS THE
PRECIP H2O DOWN TO 1.1 INCHES IN THE MORNING...BUT IT DOES RECOVER
TO NEAR 1.5 BY LATE AFTN. SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO THE
S. AS A RESULT...EXPECT LATER AND MORE ISOLD STORMS...WITH LOW END
SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT IN OUR SE ZONES. LIGHTER GRADIENT FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW ATLC SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP...AND HAVE EXTENDED ISOLD
STORMS N ALONG THE ATLC COAST INTO SE GA. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WARM
ONCE AGAIN...BUT BEACH-GOERS SHOULD GET SOME RELIEF FROM THE
SEABREEZE. AS ALWAYS...GET INDOORS WHEN THUNDER IS HEARD!
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON SUN WILL HELP GENERATE A SFC LOW
ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH
RECOVERING MOISTURE...SHOULD ALLOW BETTER POPS BY AFTN...MAINLY
OVER OUR NW ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ONCE AGAIN AS SW SFC
FLOW INCREASES DUE TO THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT.
.LONG TERM...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED PACKAGE. DID REDUCE
NIGHTTIME POPS A BIT THRU THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION...HAVE CONTINUED TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. SCT TSRA MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HRS AFFECTING
TERMINALS IN NE FL AND AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO COVER THIS
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...VFR LATER TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR BR
AROUND GNV AND VQQ SAT AM.
&&
.MARINE...NO HEADLINES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBILITY OF
SCEC OR EVEN SCA HEADLINES FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY AS THE LOCAL GRADIENT INCREASES. THIS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH.
&&
.FIRE WX...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING ON SAT...HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH A
FIRE WX WATCH FOR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA WHERE MIN RH VALUES MAY
REACH AROUND 30 PERCENT BY MID AFTERNOON. DURATIONS AT OR BELOW 35
PERCENT MAY BE ABOUT 5 HRS. MOISTURE RECOVERS SOME BY SUN SO WATCHES
DON`T APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 66 97 69 96 / 10 10 10 40
SSI 76 92 76 92 / 20 20 10 30
JAX 72 95 73 95 / 20 20 10 30
SGJ 74 92 75 92 / 20 20 10 20
GNV 71 96 72 94 / 20 20 10 20
OCF 73 95 72 93 / 20 20 10 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUWANNEE...COLUMBIA...HAMILTON...AND BAKER
COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
CARROLL/SHASHY/MCALLISTER
000
FXUS62 KMFL 031831
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
231 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE AXIS HAS FINALLY SHIFTED INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA, ALBEIT JUST BARELY, AND THIS HAS ALLOWED THE SEA BREEZE
TO PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND, AT LEAST WITH MIAMI-DADE CO, WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE RIDGE DOES TILT SOUTH WITH HEIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS DEEP MOISTURE IS STILL BEING
TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE SW FLOW CUTTING ACROSS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. PWATS IN MIAMI AND KEYS ARE DOWN TO AROUND 1.7-1.9"
WITH PWATS AROUND THE LAKE STILL A LITTLE ABOVE 2". A LITTLE MID
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ALSO CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS S FL SLIGHTLY
SUPPRESSING ACTIVITY, BUT A SHORT WAVE IS PROVIDING DIVERGENCE
ALOFT FROM THERE WHICH STILL MAY ALLOW THINGS TO POP ONCE
BOUNDARIES BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION... THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO... AND IS PROVIDING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MENTIONED
ABOVE. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT TO TSRA THROUGH
SAT BEFORE MOVING EAST OF S FL. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT
NORTHWARD SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK TO AROUND THE LAKE REGION, BUT
BEHIND THE TROUGH, FOR A FEW DAYS, S FL WILL BE IN A GENERAL N
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE OCCASIONAL S WV KICKING THROUGH AND WITH AN
OVERALL SW STEERING THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST WILL STILL RECEIVE
AT LEAST SCT POPS. THE WEST COAST WILL STILL SLIGHTLY LESS... BUT
ISOLD TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...CONVECTION HAS HELD OFF BUT STRONG HEATING WITH TEMPS
REACHING 93F PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST AND THE SEA BREEZE STARTING
TO GET A PUSH INLAND...ALBEIT SLOWLY...IS STILL EXPECTED TO IGNITE
TSRA ACROSS THE AREA. RADAR TRENDS SHOW CELLS ARE STRUGGLING TO GET
GOING...SO IT MAY REQUIRE AN ADDITIONAL "PUSH" FROM OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR AREAS. AT ANY RATE...STORMS SEEM
TO BE A GOOD BET AND FOCUSED ACROSS THE EAST COAST SO ADDED TEMPO
TSRA IN MVFR CONDITIONS. OF COURSE IFR/LIFR IS POSSIBLE BUT WOULD BE
BRIEF. STRONG GUSTS OVER 30 KT IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. /DG
&&
.MARINE...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE VICINITY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS AT 15KTS OR LESS AND SEAS AT 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD... OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 90 76 89 / 30 50 30 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 90 77 89 / 40 50 30 50
MIAMI 78 91 78 89 / 40 50 30 50
NAPLES 76 91 76 89 / 20 50 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...04/AT
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...57/DG
000
FXUS62 KMFL 031757
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
152 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION...CONVECTION HAS HELD OFF BUT STRONG HEATING WITH TEMPS
REACHING 93F PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST AND THE SEA BREEZE STARTING
TO GET A PUSH INLAND...ALBEIT SLOWLY...IS STILL EXPECTED TO IGNITE
TSRA ACROSS THE AREA. RADAR TRENDS SHOW CELLS ARE STRUGGLING TO GET
GOING...SO IT MAY REQUIRE AN ADDITIONAL "PUSH" FROM OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR AREAS. AT ANY RATE...STORMS SEEM
TO BE A GOOD BET AND FOCUSED ACROSS THE EAST COAST SO ADDED TEMPO
TSRA IN MVFR CONDITIONS. OF COURSE IFR/LIFR IS POSSIBLE BUT WOULD BE
BRIEF. STRONG GUSTS OVER 30 KT IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. /DG
&&
.UPDATE...THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING REVEALS A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS S FL WITH A MODIFIED CAPE OF JUST SHY OF 5K J/KG AND A LI
OF -8.7, AND OF COURSE NO INVERSION STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO BE FOUND... STRONG TO POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINLY WHERE THE
BEST HEATING AND CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR. WITH THE S TO SW FLOW
OVER THE CWA THE BEST HEATING AND CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE LAKE REGION AND ALONG THE EAST COAST... HENCE THE HIGH POPS
(60-70%) AT THOSE LOCATIONS AND SLIGHTLY LESS ELSEWHERE. AS FAR AS
SEVERE POTENTIAL GOES, WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60MPH WILL BE THE
BIGGEST THREATS WITH HAIL BEING LESSER DUE TO HIGH FREEZING LEVELS
AND MOIST COLUMN, BUT STILL DIME OR PENNY SIZE HAIL IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION WITH THE STRONG UP DRAFTS THAT ARE EXPECTED.
JUST MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO SHOW PRECIP
DECREASING THROUGH THE EVENING TO NONE BY MIDNIGHT, AND NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE MADE AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET. /TINGLER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL BUT THEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH FOCUS ALONG THE EAST COAST. HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS AFTER 16Z THROUGH EARLY EVENING JUST DUE TO
TIMING/LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES OF WHERE STORMS WILL SET UP AND WILL
AMEND ACCORDINGLY. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 30 KT. A LIGHT SW
WIND FLOW...SOMETIMES VARIABLE THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME SE AT THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
W-SW AT KAPF. /DG
DISCUSSION...
A VERY QUIET NIGHT IS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED OVER
THE LOCAL GULF WATERS. LATEST WATER VAPOR ANIMATION INDICATES THAT
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REMAINS POSITIONED
BENEATH A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT...BETWEEN MID-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CUBA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
AXIS DRAPED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF. OVERALL...GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF PWAT VALUES RUNNING ABOVE
2 INCHES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...LIGHT BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW
PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA/LAKE BREEZES...AND SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THE SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN TODAY FOR INTERIOR AND EAST COAST
LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE THAT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...
AS A STRONGER UPSTREAM VORT MAX MOVING INTO BASE OF TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP A DEEPER UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS
WILL VEER LIGHT STEERING FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND PROVIDE A
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO SUSTAIN REMNANT CONVECTION
APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
PENINSULA...AND WILL LEAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER EVENING POPS FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES EVEN LIGHTER ON
SATURDAY...AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS BECOMES POSITIONED ACROSS THE
AREA...AND THIS...COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIER MID-
LEVEL AIR TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WILL WARRANT
SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO EXPAND WESTWARD TOWARD
THE AREA AND RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING
FLOW. THUS...EXPECT HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR INTERIOR
AND EAST COAST ZONES TO REAPPEAR BY SUNDAY. REGARDING TEMPERATURES
IN THE SHORT TERM...WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF MAV/MET VALUES CLOSELY...
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING AROUND 90 IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S.
GUIDANCE FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FOR THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE OVERALL THEME OF
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA
CONTINUING IN PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT A DEEP UPPER LOW EJECTING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
BECOME MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THIS WILL LIKELY DO NOTHING MORE THAN TO PERHAPS LIMIT
THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TREND
OF HIGHEST POPS AND WARMEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST
COAST UNTIL A MORE DEFINITIVE TREND DEVELOPS TO SUGGEST OTHERWISE.
MARINE...
ASIDE FROM HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION...THERE ARE NO
MARINE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ALTHOUGH AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY ALLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THIS SHOULD MERELY RESULT IN SEAS OF 2-4 FEET AT MOST.
FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO
PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 76 89 76 / 70 30 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 78 89 78 / 70 40 40 30
MIAMI 89 78 89 78 / 70 40 50 30
NAPLES 88 75 89 75 / 50 20 50 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...04/AT
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...57/DG
000
FXUS62 KTBW 031743
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
143 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY)...CURRENT SYNOPTIC SETUP HAS CUTOFF
LOW OVER NORTHEAST U.S. WITH TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTH FLORIDA.
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
GULF THAT SHOULD MOVE INLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
ALSO WATCH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA.
MODELS SHOWING DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTH INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH LIFTS EASTWARD.
RISING HEIGHTS WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE START OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. POPS DIMINISH FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD...WITH
BEST CHANCES STILL OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AND ISOLATED CHANCES NORTH
OF TAMPA BAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105+ RANGE WHICH IS
NORMAL FOR FL THIS TIME OF YEAR. MIN TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL.
.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT-FRI)...WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER TO THE
WEST OF THE STATE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEN WEAK UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH FL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. GENERALLY
S/SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND
LOWS IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CAUSING TEMPO MVFR TO LCL IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 2 TO 3 FEET
OR LESS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 78 93 78 91 / 20 30 20 40
FMY 75 93 75 91 / 30 50 20 50
GIF 76 96 76 94 / 20 30 20 40
SRQ 76 91 76 90 / 20 30 20 40
BKV 72 94 72 92 / 20 20 10 30
SPG 80 92 80 91 / 20 30 20 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...40/CARLISLE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...24/COLSON
000
FXUS62 KMLB 031453
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1053 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE DISCUSSION...
MORNING CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR WITH PWATS 1.7".
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF THE SEA BREEZE
ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST. STRONG HEATING WILL SEND MAX TEMPS INTO
THE MID 90S. IN FACT...DAYTONA BEACH SHOULD GET CLOSE TO ITS RECORD
HIGH OF 96 FROM 1998. FARTHER SOUTH...WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MANY DAYS.
EXPECT A HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS. STORMS THAT COLLIDE WITH THE SEA BREEZE COULD
BECOME STRONG FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD.
EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF PUSHING SE INTO
LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES THAN YESTERDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS SHOULD
BE STRONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING PATCHY IFR/MVFR CIGS HAVE LIFTED. SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD MARCH WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF AFFECTING KMLB-
KVRB IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
SHOULD HAVE CHANCES A LITTLE LATER AS THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS
LOWER. THESE TERMINALS MAY EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH
WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING DUE TO A LONGER
PERIOD OF SURFACE HEATING. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE NORTH MAY
LINGER A LITTLE PAST 00Z.
&&
.MARINE...
W/SW FLOW LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE NORTH OF THE CAPE. BUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS WEAKER SOUTH OF
THE CAPE ESP ALG THE TREASURE COAST WHERE A SEA BREEZE SHOULD
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
THREAT FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORMS THAT COLLIDE WITH THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BECOME
STRONGER AND COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF THE CAPE. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE LATE DAY/EVENING STORMS
THAT MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE NORTH COULD BE QUITE STRONG WITH WINDS
GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 95 75 93 75 / 30 20 20 10
MCO 92 75 95 74 / 40 20 20 10
MLB 91 72 91 75 / 40 20 30 20
VRB 90 72 90 75 / 50 20 30 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
KELLY
000
FXUS62 KMFL 031422
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1022 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING REVEALS A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS S FL WITH A MODIFIED CAPE OF JUST SHY OF 5K J/KG AND A LI
OF -8.7, AND OF COURSE NO INVERSION STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO BE FOUND... STRONG TO POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINLY WHERE THE
BEST HEATING AND CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR. WITH THE S TO SW FLOW
OVER THE CWA THE BEST HEATING AND CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE LAKE REGION AND ALONG THE EAST COAST... HENCE THE HIGH POPS
(60-70%) AT THOSE LOCATIONS AND SLIGHTLY LESS ELSEWHERE. AS FAR AS
SEVERE POTENTIAL GOES, WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60MPH WILL BE THE
BIGGEST THREATS WITH HAIL BEING LESSER DUE TO HIGH FREEZING LEVELS
AND MOIST COLUMN, BUT STILL DIME OR PENNY SIZE HAIL IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION WITH THE STRONG UP DRAFTS THAT ARE EXPECTED.
JUST MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO SHOW PRECIP
DECREASING THROUGH THE EVENING TO NONE BY MIDNIGHT, AND NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE MADE AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET. /TINGLER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009/
AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL BUT THEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH FOCUS ALONG THE EAST COAST. HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS AFTER 16Z THROUGH EARLY EVENING JUST DUE TO
TIMING/LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES OF WHERE STORMS WILL SET UP AND WILL
AMEND ACCORDINGLY. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 30 KT. A LIGHT SW
WIND FLOW...SOMETIMES VARIABLE THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME SE AT THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
W-SW AT KAPF. /DG
DISCUSSION...
A VERY QUIET NIGHT IS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED OVER
THE LOCAL GULF WATERS. LATEST WATER VAPOR ANIMATION INDICATES THAT
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REMAINS POSITIONED
BENEATH A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT...BETWEEN MID-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CUBA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
AXIS DRAPED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF. OVERALL...GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF PWAT VALUES RUNNING ABOVE
2 INCHES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...LIGHT BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW
PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA/LAKE BREEZES...AND SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THE SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN TODAY FOR INTERIOR AND EAST COAST
LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE THAT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...
AS A STRONGER UPSTREAM VORT MAX MOVING INTO BASE OF TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP A DEEPER UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS
WILL VEER LIGHT STEERING FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND PROVIDE A
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO SUSTAIN REMNANT CONVECTION
APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
PENINSULA...AND WILL LEAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER EVENING POPS FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES EVEN LIGHTER ON
SATURDAY...AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS BECOMES POSITIONED ACROSS THE
AREA...AND THIS...COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIER MID-
LEVEL AIR TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WILL WARRANT
SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO EXPAND WESTWARD TOWARD
THE AREA AND RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING
FLOW. THUS...EXPECT HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR INTERIOR
AND EAST COAST ZONES TO REAPPEAR BY SUNDAY. REGARDING TEMPERATURES
IN THE SHORT TERM...WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF MAV/MET VALUES CLOSELY...
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING AROUND 90 IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S.
GUIDANCE FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FOR THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE OVERALL THEME OF
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA
CONTINUING IN PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT A DEEP UPPER LOW EJECTING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
BECOME MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THIS WILL LIKELY DO NOTHING MORE THAN TO PERHAPS LIMIT
THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TREND
OF HIGHEST POPS AND WARMEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST
COAST UNTIL A MORE DEFINITIVE TREND DEVELOPS TO SUGGEST OTHERWISE.
MARINE...
ASIDE FROM HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION...THERE ARE NO
MARINE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ALTHOUGH AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY ALLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THIS SHOULD MERELY RESULT IN SEAS OF 2-4 FEET AT MOST.
FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO
PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 76 89 76 / 70 30 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 78 89 78 / 70 40 40 30
MIAMI 89 78 89 78 / 70 40 50 30
NAPLES 88 75 89 75 / 50 20 50 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...04/AT
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...57/DG
000
FXUS62 KJAX 031345
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
945 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST N OF NY AND THE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SWD INTO SC AND INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. DEEPEST
MOISTURE CONTS JUST S OF THE FORECAST AREA YET THE JAX AND TAE 12Z
SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS OF NEAR 1.8 INCHES...UP ABOUT 3 TENTHS FROM
YESTERDAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE INCREASE WAS BELOW 700MB. SO IF
ANYTHING...THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS MORE UNSTABLE THAN YESTERDAY
AND MID LEVELS HAVE DRIED A BIT...MAKING THE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL
EVEN GREATER WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS. USING PARCEL OF 93/72
YIELDS SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 3K...LI OF -6...MPDI IS OVER 1 AND
WINDEX VALUE IS ABOUT 65 KT. CURRENT HWO COVERS THIS WELL.
AT THE SFC...A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE OVER THE SC
COASTAL WATERS TO INLAND SE GA INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. DEWPOINTS
S OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS THE CU FIELD SHOULD FORM QUICKLY TODAY
OVER OUR FL ZONES. ON RADAR ISOLD SMALL ECHOES ARE APPEARING OVER
THE FL BIG BEND. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...THERE IS SOME UPPER
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE
TROUGH OVER GA BUT THE BEST LIFT THIS TIME IS OVER THE FL ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE RESIDES AS
MENTIONED. GIVEN THIS...THE ONGOING FORECAST OF GOING ABOVE
GUIDANCE POPS SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL ONLY TWEAK POPS FOR THE MORNING
UPDATE BUT BASICALLY SCT COVERAGE OVER FL AND ISOLD OVER GA. MAX
TEMPS AGAIN IN THE MID 90S FOR THE MOST PART WITH HEAT INDICES
JUST OVER 100.
THE WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC ARE STRONGER (20-25 KT) THAN YESTERDAY
WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN GIVEN STRONG DIABATIC HEATING. GUSTS OVER 20
MPH ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES BY MID MORNING AND IN AFTERNOON. THUS...THE
E COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED NEAR THE COAST LATER TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VIS IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING JUST N OF THE
STATE LINE IN OUR CWA WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. OTHERWISE...VFR EXCEPT LOWER CONDS EXPECTED IN TSRA. AT THIS
TIME WE HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA BEGINNING AROUND 18Z/19Z. THERE
IS NO COMPELLING REASON TO CHANGE THIS THINKING. WILL REFINE THESE
FORECASTS FOR THE 18Z TAFS WITH MOST LIKELY CHANGE TO DETERIORATE
CONDS IN TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS. WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO INCREASE MORE GUSTS IN THE TAFS AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...W WINDS AT BUOY 41012 CONT AT ABOUT 16G19KT AND SEAS OF
3 FT. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE WITHIN 2-3 HRS WITH SHIFT TO MORE
SWLY DIRECTION. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 96 67 97 70 / 10 10 10 10
SSI 93 76 92 76 / 10 20 20 10
JAX 96 73 95 74 / 20 40 30 10
SGJ 92 74 92 75 / 30 30 30 20
GNV 95 72 95 72 / 40 20 30 20
OCF 94 73 95 73 / 40 20 20 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/KEEGAN
000
FXUS62 KKEY 031336
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
945 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200 MB...LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF
900 AM DEPICT THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE MAIN AXIS OF A
SEMI-PERMANENT TROUGH POSITIONED FROM UPPER LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THAT FEATURE...THERE IS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND MIGRATING TOWARDS BELIZE.
CLOSER TO THE KEYS...MID AND UPPER RIDGING IS EVIDENT ON BOTH SIDES
OF THE KEYS...WITH ONE SMALLER SCALE RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND TROPICAL ANALYSIS
ILLUSTRATING ANOTHER DEEP RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM NEAR 30N 60W SOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA. THE FLORIDA KEYS
LIE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN A COL REGION BETWEEN THE BIFURCATED
RIDGE.
IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB...LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS OF 900 AM
DETAIL A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS RATHER FAR SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH
GEORGIA AND ALABAMA FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR MONTREAL. FARTHER
SOUTH...A WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED ALONG THE 25TH PARALLEL
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WESTWARD TO ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS THEN SOUTHWEST TO WESTERN CUBA. LOCALLY...A COL ZONE EXISTS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...SPLITTING THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE.
THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING DEPICTED PWAT (PRECIPITABLE WATER) AT ABOUT
1.80 INCHES AND ALSO ILLUSTRATED A LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 15 KFT...WITH LOTS O DRY
AIR ABOVE 850 MB.
.CURRENTLY...
A VERY QUIET MORNING HAS FINALLY TAKEN SHAPE ON THIS DAY BEFORE
INDEPENDENCE DAY. KEY WEST RADAR ATTM IS NOW DEVOID OF ANY
MEASURABLE ECHOES...EXCEPT FOR ONE SOLE SHOWER POPPING UP NEAR THE
DRY TORTUGAS/ TEMPERATURES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE ALREADY
STIFLING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO HI
70S. WINDS ALONG THE REEF ARE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS...AND ISLAND SENSORS ARE
REGISTERING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS LESS THAN 6
MPH.
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...LARGE
SCALE MODELS...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE NAM CONTINUE TO
SHOW PROTRUSION OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH RATHER FAR SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THUS KEEPING
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BIFURCATED. AS A RESULT OF THIS
CONFIGURATION...SLIGHTLY HIGHER LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL ATTRIBUTE TO
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE UPPER KEYS...GIVEN THAT MESOSCALE
GENERATED SEABREEZES IN AN OVERALL LIGHT NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW
WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MEANDER IN THAT
DIRECTION (TOWARDS THE UPPER KEYS).
IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE MIDDLE
LEVEL DRY AIR MENTIONED ABOVE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS.
LATEST NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A VARIABLE OR
LIGHT SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 15 KFT WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND NORTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON OR LATE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING
FOR BOUNDARIES TO SEEP SOUTHWARDS ACROSS FLORIDA BAY...THE UPPER
KEYS...AND THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN WILL REACH TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF DAY. MARINERS ON
THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE UPPER KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY SHOULD
BE ALERT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF THE SOUTH FLORIDA
MAINLAND FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 24Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH
WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED NEAR FL025. SURFACE WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 130-180 AT 5-7KT LATE THIS MORNING...BUT BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN
PENINSULAR FLORIDA MAY THREATEN THE KEYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...WITH MTH HAVING A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE VICINITY.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS...........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.....KASPER
DATA ACQUISITION/UPPER AIR....ROSS
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KTBW 031332
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
932 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...CUTOFF LOW WITH TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTH FLORIDA PERSISTS.
MORNING SOUNDING CAME IN SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...WITH PWAT WELL BELOW 2 INCHES. DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO
NORTH FLORIDA ATTM WITH UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT DRYING ALOFT. MODELS PUSH MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH INTO
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES...SO WILL TRIM POPS ALL AREAS...BUT KEEP
LIKELY POPS ONLY IN SOUTHERN MOST ZONES. WILL DROP FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE AREA AS WE DON`T EXPECT THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS SEEN
THE PAST FEW DAYS. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. WILL
ADJUST GRIDS AND UPDATE FORECASTS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.
&&
.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT SOME
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS CAUSING TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS FAIRLY LIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 90 77 92 78 / 50 20 30 20
FMY 90 76 94 75 / 60 30 40 20
GIF 91 76 96 76 / 50 20 30 20
SRQ 89 76 91 76 / 60 20 30 20
BKV 91 73 94 72 / 40 20 20 20
SPG 89 80 92 80 / 50 20 30 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/MARINE...40/CARLISLE
AVIATION...24/COLSON
000
FXUS62 KTAE 031328
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
928 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE CENTRAL SECTION OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA EXTENDING FROM
EAST TO WEST AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST ACROSS
THE GULF. VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...THERE IS A DECENT DEWPOINT
GRADIENT ACROSS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
(68-75) CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND COAST AND DOWN INTO
THE MID TO LOW 60S OVER THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST
AREA...OR NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING WEST FROM TIFTON TO DOTHAN.
THEREFORE...WE ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON TO REMAIN CONCENTRATED OVER NORTH FLORIDA
AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND
FORCING WILL BE. THE MODIFIED 12Z TAE SOUNDING USING A 96/69
PARCEL GAVE UP TO 2500 CAPE AND A PWAT VALUE AROUND 1.74 INCHES.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR MICROBURSTS IN
THE STRONGER STORMS THAT GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON CONSIDERING THE
20 TO 25K THETA-E SPREAD BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND THE MID LEVELS.
THE LOCALLY RAN WRF ALSO SUPPORTS SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER OUR
FLORIDA ZONES AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED
AT THIS TIME...WE DID MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS IN THE GRIDS FOR
TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...ONCE CONDITIONS IMPROVE AT VLD THIS MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY AND MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN AND AROUND VLD AND TLH
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR MVFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS IN TS WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR. VSBY COULD DROP BACK TO MVFR IN THE PREDAWN HOURS
SAT AT VLD.
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
CALHOUN...GADSDEN...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...
JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
WASHINGTON.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
AVIATION...WOOL
000
FXUS62 KMFL 031142
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
740 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL BUT THEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH FOCUS ALONG THE EAST COAST. HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS AFTER 16Z THROUGH EARLY EVENING JUST DUE TO
TIMING/LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES OF WHERE STORMS WILL SET UP AND WILL
AMEND ACCORDINGLY. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 30 KT. A LIGHT SW
WIND FLOW...SOMETIMES VARIABLE THIS MORNING...WILL BECOME SE AT THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
W-SW AT KAPF. /DG
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A VERY QUIET NIGHT IS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED OVER
THE LOCAL GULF WATERS. LATEST WATER VAPOR ANIMATION INDICATES THAT
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REMAINS POSITIONED
BENEATH A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT...BETWEEN MID-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CUBA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
AXIS DRAPED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF. OVERALL...GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF PWAT VALUES RUNNING ABOVE
2 INCHES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...LIGHT BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW
PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA/LAKE BREEZES...AND SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THE SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN TODAY FOR INTERIOR AND EAST COAST
LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE THAT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...
AS A STRONGER UPSTREAM VORT MAX MOVING INTO BASE OF TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP A DEEPER UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS
WILL VEER LIGHT STEERING FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND PROVIDE A
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO SUSTAIN REMNANT CONVECTION
APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
PENINSULA...AND WILL LEAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER EVENING POPS FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES EVEN LIGHTER ON
SATURDAY...AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS BECOMES POSITIONED ACROSS THE
AREA...AND THIS...COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIER MID-
LEVEL AIR TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WILL WARRANT
SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO EXPAND WESTWARD TOWARD
THE AREA AND RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING
FLOW. THUS...EXPECT HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR INTERIOR
AND EAST COAST ZONES TO REAPPEAR BY SUNDAY. REGARDING TEMPERATURES
IN THE SHORT TERM...WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF MAV/MET VALUES CLOSELY...
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING AROUND 90 IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S.
GUIDANCE FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FOR THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE OVERALL THEME OF
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA
CONTINUING IN PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT A DEEP UPPER LOW EJECTING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
BECOME MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THIS WILL LIKELY DO NOTHING MORE THAN TO PERHAPS LIMIT
THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TREND
OF HIGHEST POPS AND WARMEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST
COAST UNTIL A MORE DEFINITIVE TREND DEVELOPS TO SUGGEST OTHERWISE.
&&
.MARINE...
ASIDE FROM HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION...THERE ARE NO
MARINE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ALTHOUGH AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY ALLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THIS SHOULD MERELY RESULT IN SEAS OF 2-4 FEET AT MOST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO
PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 76 89 76 / 70 30 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 78 89 78 / 70 40 40 30
MIAMI 89 78 89 78 / 70 40 50 30
NAPLES 88 75 89 75 / 50 20 50 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...54/BNB
000
FXUS62 KTAE 031000 AAA
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AMENDED FOR FIRE WX INFO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
600 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
ON THURS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A LATE DEVELOPING SEA
BREEZE COMBINED WITH OUTFLOWS GENERATED FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS SRN ALA/GA IN THE AREA...AND AIDED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE ERN U.S. TROF...KICKED OFF SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS CWA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE REMAINING COASTAL STORMS NOTICEABLY
WEAKENED.
AT UPPER LEVELS...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WITH AXIS DOWN PLAINS STATES...AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER ERN
GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST WITH AXIS SWD INTO FL PANHANDLE AND MARKED BY
566MB CUTOFF LOW OVER NE GREAT LAKES. UNDER NWLY UPPER FLOW...THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING DOWN FRONT OF
RIDGE AND INTO CWA INTO WEEKEND. HOWEVER...UNTIL TROUGH LIFTS
SUFFICIENTLY NEWD BY SUNDAY...SEVERAL IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SEWD DOWN RIDGE AND AROUND THE BASE OF TROUGH TO ACROSS LOCAL AREA
WHICH LIES ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF MODERATE MID/UPPER-LEVEL WLYS. A
PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER LWR MISS VALLEY IS FORECAST TO
DIVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTN ENHANCING CONVECTION.
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD LATER TODAY INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LOW
FINALLY OPEN UP AS AN UPSTREAM SPEED MAX OVER SWRN ONTARIO DIVES
SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TROUGH AXIS TO EXIT OFFSHORE BEGINNING
TONIGHT. UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER PLAINS WILL FLATTEN TODAY AS AN IMPULSE
IN THE ERN GREAT BASIN EJECTS EWD INTO THE MID-MO RIVER VALLEY. THIS
COMBINATION YIELDS A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEAMPLIFICATION ACROSS CONUS.
STILL...ONE TO TWO WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL
APPROACH OUR AREA DURING SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY EARLY WORK
WEEK...RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BEGINS BUILDING EASTWARD AND MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN BUILDING THIS RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN 2/3RD OF
THE U.S. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE AND
PUTTING THE SOUTHERN U.S. INTO A NW FLOW SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...MAIN CONUS FEATURE IS A LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ESEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY
SAT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND
INTO THE SRN PLAINS. AHEAD OF SYSTEM 1020MB HIGH OH/TENN RIVER
VALLEY TO MOVE TO SRN APPALACHIANS ON SAT DRAGGING FRONT FURTHER
SEWD TO APPROACH LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ACROSS MAINLY SE ALA/GA ZONES BEGINNING
SUNDAY AFTN. CLOSER TO HOME...LOCAL AREA LOCATED BETWEEN A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE ALA/SRN GA AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WHICH REMAINS DISPLACED FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GULF. FRONT TO DROP SWD TO FL COAST LATER TODAY AND
LINGER. THEN...AS ABOVE UPPER LOW/TROUGH LIFTS NEWD AND UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MISSOURI...FL SURFACE RIDGE LIFTS NWD AND
REMNANTS OF FL TROUGH RETREATS NWD WITH DRIER AIR ENTERING THE
REGION FROM N-S DURING WEEKEND.
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
TODAY...
NAM/MAV BOTH SHOW THAT ALA/GA BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT FURTHER SOUTH AND
STALL NEAR FL COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAV EDGING A BIT
FARTHER SWD AND THUS A TAD DRIER WITH ALA/GA POPS THIS AFTN. THIS
SHOULD CONCENTRATE ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST
(COMPARED TO YESTERDAY) AND PIN SEABREEZE ALONG THE COAST. BOTH
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY AND CONTINUE TO UNDERESTIMATE
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY SE THIRD OF CWA. CONVERSELY...FAVORED WRF
MODEL (WHICH JUXTAPOSES WELL WITH SREF POPS) AND WHICH HAS WELL
OUTPERFORMED MAN/GFS IN RECENT DAYS. SHOWS SOME LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN W-E CONVECTION ACROSS OFFSHORE WATERS...LIKELY JUXTAPOSED
WITH REMNANT OF GULF FRONT. WRF THEN FOCUSES AMPLE AFTN CONVECTION
ACROSS COASTAL SEABREEZE AND THEN ACROSS ERN BIG BEND. GIVEN LIGHT
WSW STEERING FLOW...THIS MAKES SENSE AND EVEN NAM/GFS IMPLIES THAT
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING
ON SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. WILL GO WITH A NW-SE 0-50 PCT POP
GRADIENT.
ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS FORECAST AREA ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...WITH LWR MISS VALLEY SHORTWAVE PRIMED TO ENTER CWA THIS
AFTN...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH MLCAPE OF 2000 TO 2500
J/KG...COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPING S OF
THE STALLED FRONT...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW MULTICELL TSTMS (AND
OR CELL MERGERS) MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS (REINFORCED BY TAE DRY
AIR ALOFT AND INVERTED V BELOW SEEN IN FRI MODEL SOUNDINGS) AND
SEVERE HAIL. WILL INSERT "SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG" WORDING IN FL
ZONES AND THIS MAY BE UPGRADED IN NEXT UPDATE.
SATURDAY...WITH UPPER LOW RETREATING NWD ...SEABREEZE SHOULD
PENETRATE A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND KICKING FRONTAL REMNANT BACK AS
DRY WARM FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE DRY TO SO MAINLY HIGH BASED
CLOUDS WITH DRY AIR OVERSPREADING ENTIRE CWA FROM NW-SE...0% POPS
FOR ALL BUT SMALL CHANCE SE BIG BEND.
SUNDAY...DRY REPRIEVE SHORTLIVED. FRONT ACROSS MIDWEST TODAY (FRI)
MERGES WITH REMNANTS OF SAT WARM FRONT AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT
AND RETURNS TO VCNTY OF CWA. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...50-20% NW-SE
POP GRADIENT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A FAMILIAR PATTERN...TROUGH IN THE EAST AND
RIDGING IN THE WEST WITH A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP.
THE EXTENDED REMAINS SOMEWHAT DISTURBED AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
MOVE OVER THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER AIR PATTERN AS THE
RIDGE IN THE WEST BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PRODUCING A
TROUGH IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SEPARATING THE EAST-WEST
ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA. HGTS WILL BE ON THE
RISE AGAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION DURING THE PERIOD.
SO...POPS WILL BE AT NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY JULY. TEMPS WILL BE
VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THE MAX
TEMPS. THIS WILL BE A WELCOMED CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...EXCEPT SOME THICKER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WEST OF
TLH. SOME CONVECTION STILL FIRING OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF PFN.
EXPECTING ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS/CIGS AROUND SUNRISE ESPECIALLY AT TLH AND VLD.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT TLH THIS
MORNING BECAUSE OF THE HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL BE AROUND THE
TLH...VLD AND PFN TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE
MARINE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
GRADIENT WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY APPROACH CRITICAL VALUES AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR LONG DURATIONS OF RH VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR
INLAND COUNTIES OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG
BEND FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOULD INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND END
ANY CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 97 70 98 74 96/ 30 30 10 10 40
PANAMA CITY 93 76 94 79 92/ 30 20 10 10 40
DOTHAN 96 70 98 74 96/ 0 10 10 10 50
ALBANY 96 69 97 74 96/ 0 10 10 10 40
VALDOSTA 95 70 97 71 95/ 30 30 20 10 30
CROSS CITY 94 73 96 73 95/ 50 30 30 20 20
APALACHICOLA 93 77 92 78 93/ 30 20 10 10 40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...FIRE WX WATCH SAT AFTN FOR MOST OF INLAND COUNTIES.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
BLOCK/WATSON
000
FXUS62 KMFL 030849
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
449 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
A VERY QUIET NIGHT IS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED OVER
THE LOCAL GULF WATERS. LATEST WATER VAPOR ANIMATION INDICATES THAT
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REMAINS POSITIONED
BENEATH A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT...BETWEEN MID-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CUBA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
AXIS DRAPED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF. OVERALL...GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF PWAT VALUES RUNNING ABOVE
2 INCHES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...LIGHT BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW
PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA/LAKE BREEZES...AND SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THE SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN TODAY FOR INTERIOR AND EAST COAST
LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE THAT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...
AS A STRONGER UPSTREAM VORT MAX MOVING INTO BASE OF TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP A DEEPER UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS
WILL VEER LIGHT STEERING FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND PROVIDE A
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO SUSTAIN REMNANT CONVECTION
APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
PENINSULA...AND WILL LEAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER EVENING POPS FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES EVEN LIGHTER ON
SATURDAY...AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS BECOMES POSITIONED ACROSS THE
AREA...AND THIS...COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIER MID-
LEVEL AIR TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WILL WARRANT
SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO EXPAND WESTWARD TOWARD
THE AREA AND RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING
FLOW. THUS...EXPECT HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR INTERIOR
AND EAST COAST ZONES TO REAPPEAR BY SUNDAY. REGARDING TEMPERATURES
IN THE SHORT TERM...WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF MAV/MET VALUES CLOSELY...
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING AROUND 90 IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S.
GUIDANCE FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FOR THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE OVERALL THEME OF
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA
CONTINUING IN PREVAILING SOUTHWEST FLOW. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT A DEEP UPPER LOW EJECTING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
BECOME MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THIS WILL LIKELY DO NOTHING MORE THAN TO PERHAPS LIMIT
THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TREND
OF HIGHEST POPS AND WARMEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST
COAST UNTIL A MORE DEFINITIVE TREND DEVELOPS TO SUGGEST OTHERWISE.
&&
.MARINE...
ASIDE FROM HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION...THERE ARE NO
MARINE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FOR
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ALTHOUGH AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY ALLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THIS SHOULD MERELY RESULT IN SEAS OF 2-4 FEET AT MOST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO
PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 76 89 76 / 70 30 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 78 89 78 / 70 40 40 30
MIAMI 89 78 89 78 / 70 40 50 30
NAPLES 88 75 89 75 / 50 20 50 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...54/BNB
000
FXUS62 KMLB 030823
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
423 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE STEADILY THINNED ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BAND RESIDES. HIGHEST
POPS SHOULD OCCUR THERE AGAIN...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING
EARLIEST AND MARCHING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LIKE YESTERDAY...A BAND OF LOWER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH SHOULD
DELAY DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...BUT WITH THE GREATEST HEATING
OCCURRING THERE...EXPECT THE STRONGEST STORMS TO FORM DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. WITH AXIS OF TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING LATE...THERE
COULD BE SOME FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AS THE GFS SHOWS SLIGHT
COOLING IN THE UPPER LEVELS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH NORTHERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING AS CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH
APPROACHING NORTH FLORIDA WILL HAVE A GREATER CHANCE OF PUSHING
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR.
HAVE JUST GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER 00Z BUT DEPENDING ON
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION...PORTIONS OF THE NORTH MAY NEED TO HAVE
HIGHER EARLY NIGHTTIME POPS.
SAT-SUN...A DEEP SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL DRIFT
INTO THE WRN ATLC OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH SUPPRESSED OVER THE FL STRAITS. DLM WRLY FLOW WILL
RESULT...THOUGH THE LOW LVL PGRAD WILL RELAX AS THE CYCLONIC
CENTER OF THE TROF PUSHES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE TO FORM EACH AFTN.
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED SAT AS THE WRLY FLOW PUSHES A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW RH AIR INTO THE N HALF OF FL...POPS CAPPED
AT 20-30%. RH WILL INCREASE SUN AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT
AND THE REMNANT TROF DAMPENS AND LIFTS BACK TO THE N...POPS 30-50%.
MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR CLIMO AVG...SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE INTERIOR AS
THE WRLYS KEEP THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE PINNED OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES.
MON-THU...THE SHORT WAVE TROF WILL LIFT NE AND WEAKEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS BOTH SWING A REINFORCING LOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND STATES. AN ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL
TROF EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE MID SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE THE RECENT WX PATTERN OF PERSISTENT TROFFING OVER THE ERN
CONUS. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS FROM
MIGRATING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN THE FL KEYS. WRLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE...WHILE THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE BLOCKS ANY DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM PUSHING NWD. THIS WX PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE
ERN PENINSULA FOR DIURNAL PRECIP...THOUGH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
OVER THE GOMEX SHOULD KEEP TOTAL COVERAGE BLO 50%. MAX/MIN TEMPS
WILL BE NOMINAL FOR MID SUMMER.
&&
.AVIATION...EARLY MORNING STRATUS IS EXPECTED AGAIN WITH A PERIOD
OF IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 13Z. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD
MARCH WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF AFFECTING KMLB-KVRB IN
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD
HAVE CHANCES A LITTLE LATER AS THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS LOWER.
THESE TERMINALS MAY EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING DUE TO A LONGER
PERIOD OF SURFACE HEATING. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE NORTH MAY
LINGER A LITTLE PAST 00Z.
&&
.MARINE...SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING LOOKS TO BE AROUND 15
KNOTS OFFSHORE. THE GRADIENT SHOULD SLOWLY EASE THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THREAT FOR OFFSHORE
MOVING STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE LATE
DAY STORMS THAT MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE NORTH COULD BE QUITE STRONG
WITH WINDS GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
SAT-TUE...DLM TROFFING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ERN SEABOARD...KEEPING
THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE BERMUDA HIGH SUPPRESSED OVER THE FL STRAITS
THRU THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SWRLY BREEZE
WILL RESULT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA/SW ATLC...SHOULD BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTN.
THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP WIND WAVES AOB 2FT NEARSHORE...AOB
3FT OFFSHORE WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY BREAKING UP ANY SWELL COMPONENT
THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD. THE OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL GENERATE CHOPPY...SHORT PERIOD SEAS OVER THE OPEN ATLC
FROM TIME TO TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 93 75 92 74 / 30 20 20 10
MCO 92 75 95 75 / 40 20 30 10
MLB 91 72 91 75 / 40 20 30 10
VRB 90 72 92 75 / 50 20 30 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM....BRAGAW
000
FXUS62 KJAX 030813
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
410 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SHORT TERM (FRI-SUN)...SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE AIRPORT AND OFFSHORE FERNANDINA BCH EARLY
THIS AM. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...ACROSS LOWER MISS VALLEY..MOVES SE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH INTO SE GA TODAY AND NE FL SAT
BEFORE STALLING/WASHING OUT. THE SHORT WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE
FRONT AND MAX HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED STORMS WHICH WILL MOVE SE
TOWARDS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENT WEAK ENOUGH WITH FRONT IN
THE AREA TO RESULT IN SEA BREEZE COLLISION ACROSS NE FL/EXTREME SE
GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE AS INDICATED BY NAM TO ENHANCE
STORMS. DRIER AIR ALOFT ALSO MOVES IN RESULTING IN LESS COVERAGE OF
STORMS BUT THE MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO LOW ESPECIALLY IN NE FL AND
HAVE GONE WITH HIGHER POPS BUT STILL SCATTERED. ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN ZONES...AIRMASS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY POPS OTHER THAN 10%.
MAIN CONCERNS FROM THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE STRONG AND
POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LIGHTNING AND WILL INDICATE IN HWO. FOR
THE FOURTH OF JULY...FRONT WASHES OUT ACROSS NE FL WITH SCATTERED
STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NE WITH SEA BREEZE AND
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO A PART OF THE EVE FOR THE EXTREME SE ZONES
WHERE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH. HOT
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH MAX TEMPS MID/UPPER 90S AND HEAT
INDICES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100. ON SUNDAY NEXT COLD FRONT
DROPS SE TOWARDS THE AREA BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AREA
WIDE BY LATE IN THE DAY/EVE.
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ON FRONT SLOWLY
SAGGING SOUTH OVER SE GA MON AND STALLING/WASHING OUT ACROSS NE FL
TUE-THU. WITH PW`S RUNNING CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA...SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY.
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY LOWER 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS RUNNING NEAR CLIMO.
.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE
FOG/LOW CLOUDS AT LOCAL TERMINALS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKER
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME OFF THE APALACHEE BAY...YIELDING HIGHER
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. WITH DAYBREAK SEVERAL HOURS AWAY...THERE IS
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/LOW CLOUDS TO FORM. WILL CONTINUE TO
REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY...AND MAY NEED
TO INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS WITH 12Z ISSUANCE.
&&
.MARINE...NO HEADLINES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBILITY OF
SCEC HEADLINES FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AS THE
LOCAL GRADIENT INCREASES. THIS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
TO THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO THE NORTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 96 68 97 70 / 10 10 10 10
SSI 93 76 92 76 / 20 20 20 10
JAX 96 73 95 74 / 30 40 30 10
SGJ 92 75 92 75 / 30 30 30 20
GNV 95 72 95 72 / 30 20 30 20
OCF 94 73 95 73 / 30 20 20 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
PP/ECZ
000
FXUS62 KKEY 030749
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
347 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A VERY QUIET OVERNIGHT IS WELL UNDERWAY WITH LOCAL RADARS VOID OF
ANY PRECIPITATION. SURFACE WISE...A WEAK RIDGE IS ALIGNED ACROSS OUR
SERVICE AREA...WHILE A TROUGH IS DRAPED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
DOWN INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICT...C-MAN
STATION PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5
TO 10 KNOTS. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN MIGRATING WESTWARD...WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS DIGGING INTO
NORTH FLORIDA.
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED MID AND UPPER LEVEL (500-200 MB) ANTICYCLONE
LYING FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO ACROSS THE KEYS...AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRIEFLY SEVER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
DIGGING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY TRANSITION OUR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT TO NEUTRAL/CYCLONIC LATE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
LARGE SCALE DESCENT RETURNS LATER SUNDAY WITH THE EXITING OF THE
TROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE MEAN STEERING FLOW (850-700 MB) WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE TURNING
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS EXPECTED
STEERING FLOW AND LESS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...IT APPEARS SOME DEEP
CONVECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL MIGRATE INTO THE UPPER KEYS FROM
MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ON SATURDAY...GIVEN LITTLE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...A WEAK FLOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW CLOUD LINE FORMATION AND ACTIVITY TO DRIFT OFF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND. HENCE...WILL INSERT CHANCE POPS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. THEREAFTER...SOME DRIER
AIR MAY FILTER IN...SO ISOLATED POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR NOW.
AMPLE INSOLATION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB NEAR 90 DEGREES
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING IN THE LOWER 80S OUTSIDE OF RAINFALL.
SUBSEQUENTLY...WILL SEPARATE THE ZONES TO INSERT SCATTERED POPS FOR
THE UPPER KEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL BECOME WELL
ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP PWAT VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.8 INCHES...WITH
SPELLS OF LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. GIVEN A STABLE REGIME ALOFT AND AN
ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL UNDULATIONS FORESEEN...ONLY 20 PERCENT POPS
WILL BE KEPT THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURE WISE...A
PREDOMINATE...ALBEIT LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING IN
THE LOWER 80S OUTSIDE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH A RIDGE AXIS REMAINING NEAR OUR REGION...LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREDOMINATE ON KEYS WATERS THROUGH THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
MARINERS ON THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE UPPER KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY SHOULD BE ALERT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH ISLAND TERMINALS THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 90 81 90 81 / 20 20 40 40
MARATHON 91 81 91 81 / 20 20 40 40
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.................APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.....AL
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KTAE 030705
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
ON THURS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A LATE DEVELOPING SEA
BREEZE COMBINED WITH OUTFLOWS GENERATED FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS SRN ALA/GA IN THE AREA...AND AIDED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE ERN U.S. TROF...KICKED OFF SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS CWA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE REMAINING COASTAL STORMS NOTICEABLY
WEAKENED.
AT UPPER LEVELS...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY WITH AXIS DOWN PLAINS STATES...AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER ERN
GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST WITH AXIS SWD INTO FL PANHANDLE AND MARKED BY
566MB CUTOFF LOW OVER NE GREAT LAKES. UNDER NWLY UPPER FLOW...THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING DOWN FRONT OF
RIDGE AND INTO CWA INTO WEEKEND. HOWEVER...UNTIL TROUGH LIFTS
SUFFICIENTLY NEWD BY SUNDAY...SEVERAL IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SEWD DOWN RIDGE AND AROUND THE BASE OF TROUGH TO ACROSS LOCAL AREA
WHICH LIES ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF MODERATE MID/UPPER-LEVEL WLYS. A
PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIVE ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTN ENHANCING CONVECTION.
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD LATER TODAY INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LOW
FINALLY OPEN UP AS AN UPSTREAM SPEED MAX OVER SWRN ONTARIO DIVES
SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TROUGH AXIS TO EXIT OFFSHORE BEGINNING
TONIGHT. UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER PLAINS WILL FLATTEN TODAY AS AN IMPULSE
IN THE ERN GREAT BASIN EJECTS EWD INTO THE MID-MO RIVER VALLEY. THIS
COMBINATION YIELDS A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEAMPLIFICATION ACROSS CONUS.
STILL...ONE TO TWO WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL
APPROACH OUR AREA DURING SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY EARLY WORK
WEEK...RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BEGINS BUILDING EASTWARD AND MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN BUILDING THIS RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN 2/3RD OF
THE U.S. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE AND
PUTTING THE SOUTHERN U.S. INTO A NW FLOW SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT LOWER LEVELS...MAIN CONUS FEATURE IS A LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ESEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY
SAT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND
INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ACROSS MAINLY
SE ALA/GA ZONES BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTN. CLOSER TO HOME...LOCAL AREA
LOCATED BETWEEN A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE ALA/SRN
GA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WHICH REMAINS DISPLACED FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF. THEN AS ABOVE UPPER LOW/TROUGH LIFTS
NEWD...GA TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH TO THE EAST WITH SOME DRIER AIR
ENTERING THE REGION FOR DURING WEEKEND.
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
TODAY...
NAM/MAV BOTH SHOW THAT ALA/GA BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT FURTHER SOUTH AND
STALL NEAR FL COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAV EDGING A BIT
FARTHER SWD AND THUS A TAD DRIER WITH ALA/GA POPS THIS AFTN. THIS
SHOULD CONCENTRATE ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST
(COMPARED TO YESTERDAY) AND PIN SEABREEZE ALONG THE COAST. BOTH
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY AND CONTINUE TO UNDERESTIMATE
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY SE THIRD OF CWA. CONVERSELY...FAVORED WRF
MODEL (WHICH JUXTAPOSES WELL WITH SREF POPS) AND WHICH HAS WELL
OUTPERFORMED MAN/GFS IN RECENT DAYS SHOWS SOME LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN W-E CONVECTION ACROSS OFFSHORE WATERS...LIKELY JUXTAPOSED
WITH REMNANT OF GULF FRONT. WRF THEN FOCUSES AMPLE AFTN CONVECTION
ACROSS COASTAL SEABREEZE AND THEN ACROSS ERN BIG BEND. GIVEN LIGHT
WSW STEERING FLOW...THIS MAKES SENSE AND EVEN NAM/GFS IMPLIES THAT
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY... MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING
ON SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. WILL GO WITH A NW-SE 0-50 PCT POP
GRADIENT.
ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS FORECAST AREA ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH MLCAPE OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG DEVELOPING S
OF THE STALLED FRONT...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW MULTICELL TSTMS
(AND OR CELL MERGERS) MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL. WILL
INSERT "SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG" WORDING IN FL ZONES AND THIS MAY
BE UPGRADED IN NEXT UPDATE.
SATURDAY...0% POPS FOR ALL BUT SMALL CHANCE SE BIG BEND.
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT... 50-20% NW-SE POP GRADIENT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A FAMILIAR PATTERN...TROUGH IN THE EAST AND
RIDGING IN THE WEST WITH A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP.
THE EXTENDED REMAINS SOMEWHAT DISTURBED AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
MOVE OVER THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER AIR PATTERN AS THE
RIDGE IN THE WEST BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PRODUCING A
TROUGH IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SEPARATING THE EAST-WEST
ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA. HGTS WILL BE ON THE
RISE AGAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION DURING THE PERIOD.
SO...POPS WILL BE AT NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY JULY. TEMPS WILL BE
VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THE MAX
TEMPS. THIS WILL BE A WELCOMED CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...EXCEPT SOME THICKER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WEST OF
TLH. SOME CONVECTION STILL FIRING OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF PFN.
EXPECTING ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS/CIGS AROUND SUNRISE ESPECIALLY AT TLH AND VLD.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT TLH THIS
MORNING BECAUSE OF THE HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL BE AROUND THE
TLH...VLD AND PFN TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE
MARINE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
GRADIENT WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OR
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRIER AIR
WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO FILTER INTO PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY APPROACH CRITICAL
VALUES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST ON FRIDAY WITH A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
TO SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE
INLAND FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND UP INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOULD INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND END ANY CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONCERNS.
IF WARNING OR WATCH IS NEEDED WILL UPDATE AFD LATER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 97 70 98 74 96/ 30 30 10 10 40
PANAMA CITY 93 76 94 79 92/ 30 20 10 10 40
DOTHAN 96 70 98 74 96/ 0 10 10 10 50
ALBANY 96 69 97 74 96/ 0 10 10 10 40
VALDOSTA 95 70 97 71 95/ 30 30 20 10 30
CROSS CITY 94 73 96 73 95/ 50 30 30 20 20
APALACHICOLA 93 77 92 78 93/ 30 20 10 10 40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
BLOCK/WATSON
000
FXUS62 KTBW 030615
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
215 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SUNDAY)...CUTOFF LOW PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THE CUTOFF LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO OPEN UP TODAY
AND LIFT EASTWARD WITH THE L/W TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WHICH
WILL ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
WITH PCPW VALUES WELL OVER 2 INCHES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM PASCO COUNTY SOUTH...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN FROM BRADENTON TO FORT MYERS WHERE L/L
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG OLD CONVERGENT BOUNDARY.
ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED...THREAT
REMAINS FOR LOCAL 3 TO 6 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHERE TRAINING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. GROUND IS SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAINS SO FLOODING WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY WHERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP DUE TO RAPID RUNOFF. TEMPERATURES ALOFT HAVE COOLED A FEW
DEGREES WHICH WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON DURING MAX
HEATING. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW...HEAVY RAINS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. AND WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT...COULD SEE PEA
SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WITH STRONGER STORMS.
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BEHIND THE U/L TROUGH WITH POPS DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE
NORMAL...WHILE THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL FALL BELOW CLIMATIC NORMALS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS AROUND MIAMI AND A TROUGH OFF THE U.S. EAST
COAST. PATTERN SIMILAR FOR TUESDAY...BUT THEN THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED
SOUTH AS THE EAST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS. THEN BY THURSDAY THE TROUGH
WILL WEAKEN SOME...BUT THE RIDGE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE STATE.
LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL RAIN PATTERN WILL SET UP WITH THE
RIDGE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATERS
OVERHEAD. GIVEN THE NEAR NORMAL RAINS...AND NO DISCERNABLE STRONG
RIDGE OR TROUGH OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL AS
WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...MAY BRIEFLY SEE SOME BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN NOW AND
DAYBREAK AT ONE OR TWO TAF SITES...BUT NOT LONG ENOUGH TO PUT IN A
TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME. WITH QUIET WATERS NOW...BUT STILL AMPLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME NEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO FORM
OVER THE GULF BY DAYBREAK AND MOVE INLAND. DEVELOPMENT WILL GET TO
THE FMY TERMINALS A LITTLE LATER. DRYING TREND EXPECTED AT SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE WINDS PUSH ANY DEVELOPMENT INLAND...SO
HAVE REMOVED VICINITY STORMS BUT KEPT IN CB CLOUD GROUPS TIL 00Z.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 90 77 92 78 / 50 20 30 20
FMY 90 76 94 75 / 60 30 40 20
GIF 91 76 96 76 / 50 20 30 20
SRQ 89 76 91 76 / 60 20 30 20
BKV 91 73 94 72 / 40 20 20 20
SPG 89 80 92 80 / 50 20 30 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR
PASCO...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...MANATEE...
SARASOTA...DESOTO...HARDEE...AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...EO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RS
000
FXUS62 KMFL 030539 AAD
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
139 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING OVER ALL OF
THE TAF SITES BEFORE INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY 13Z. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING TO A SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z ALONG THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...AS
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AFTER 13Z...BEFORE A
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SO THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL HAVE VCSH FROM 13Z UNTIL
AROUND 17Z AND THEN HAVE VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. APF TAF
SITE WILL HAVE VCSH AFTER 13Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE INLAND BY THEN.
THE CEILING AND VIS WILL BE IN THE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TODAY..AS THE TIMING AND THE LOCATION OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT KNOWN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVAITION...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 830 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009/
UPDATE...
SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY HAS DIED DOWN CONSIDERABLY THIS
EVENING...AND WITH NOT MUCH CONVECTION UPSTREAM HAVE LOWERED POPS
SOME IN MOST AREAS. DID NOT WANT TO LEAVE A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY GIVEN WHAT`S HAPPENED THE PAST FEW EVENINGS WITH AN
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY...BUT FEEL AT LEAST AFTER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY IS LIKELY. THE 00Z MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWED SOME
DRYING OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...WITH PWATS DROPPING BELOW
2 INCHES. THIS IS DUE TO SOME DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AS
THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE AXIS TRIES TO NOSE NORTH INTO THE REGION.
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE CWA...BUT IF THERE IS SOME
THINNING OF THESE CLOUDS WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORM OVER
INTERIOR AREAS. WILL MONITOR THESE TRENDS BEFORE ADDING TO THE
FCST HOWEVER.
&&
/STRASSBERG
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009/
AVIATION...ONLY MENTIONED VCSH FOR THE EAST TERMINALS TONIGHT BUT
FOR KAPF, USED A TEMPO TO 03Z IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN TS. WINDS
WILL GO LGT/VRBL OVERNIGHT AND THEN THE SEABREEZES WILL BE ACTIVE
BY JUST AFTER NOON FRIDAY WITH EAST TERMINALS GOING SE 8-10
KNOTS. THIS MIGHT ENHANCE ACTIVITY BUT DON`T EXPECT ANYMORE
ACTIVITY THAN TODAY. FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THERE IS A CHC OF
WATERSPOUTS NEAR KAPF.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO NUDGE INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND IT CURRENTLY IS
NORTH OF NASSAU BUT JUST SOUTH OF KEY WEST... AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ITS SLOW NORTHWARD TREK THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES... A TROUGH CONTINUES TO EVER SO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST AND SLOWLY FILLS. A SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND CURRENTLY IS ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY.
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO S FL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, THEN TRAVEL UP TO NORTH OF THE LAKE THEN SOUTH AGAIN BY
MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW FAIRLY LIGHT AND ALLOW
FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG BOTH COASTS. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
ALSO BE ALLOWED TO SLIGHTLY DECREASE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, BUT
PWATS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY LESS THAN
2". THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A SLIGHT BIT OF MID LEVEL COOLING
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY, BUT WITH SEA BREEZES PUSHING INLAND MOST
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE PALM
BEACH COAST... WHICH WILL STILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
AND STILL UNDER THE S-SW FLOW. WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND
SLIGHTLY LESS PWAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONVECTION WILL BE LIKE A MORE
NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN.
AVIATION...NUMEROUS TSRA DEVELOPING OVER INTERIOR AND MOVING
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS SO HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR TSRA
CONDITIONS FROM 18-21Z ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS. IFR IS POSSIBLE,
BUT WILL BE BRIEF. WILL CONTINUE WITH VCTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KAPF. /DG
MARINE...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT BACK AND FORTH FROM THE
STRAIGHTS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND BACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP S FL IN A FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW WITH
WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS, OUTSIDE OF
TSRA, THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 91 75 91 / 40 50 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 89 77 90 / 40 50 30 40
MIAMI 78 90 77 90 / 40 50 20 40
NAPLES 76 92 76 91 / 20 40 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...04/AT
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...57/DG
000
FXUS62 KTAE 030223
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1030 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...WILL KEEP THIS AFD SHORT AND SWEET AFTER A SOMEWHAT
UNEXPECTED BUT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX EVENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH CONSUMED MUCH OF THE EVENING SHIFT. ONCE AGAIN...THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WERE MUCH TOO DRY ACROSS THE
CWA...WHILE BOTH THE LONG RANGE VERSION OF THE LOCAL WORKSTATION
WRF (THE 00 UTC RUN FROM LAST NIGHT) AND THE 12 UTC RUN FROM TODAY
PERFORMED REMARKABLY WELL WITH POPS AND AREAL COVERAGE. IT`S A BIT
TOO DIFFICULT TO GAUGE WHETHER IT WOULD HAVE PREDICTED AS MUCH SVR WX
AS OCCURRED...BUT WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE
UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S (DHN`S 105 MAY BE A BIT TOO HOT...WE WILL BE
INVESTIGATING HIGHS AND LOWS THERE NEXT WEEK WITH CALIBRATION
TESTS)...A LATE DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE AREA IS ALL IT TAKES TO KICK OFF A WIDESPREAD BATCH OF STRONG
TO SEVERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT...DESPITE THE
EARLIER STORMS ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE...A NEW BATCH OF SUB-SPS
STORMS IS BEGINNING TO THRIVE TO THE W OF THE AAF RIVER OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE...SO KEPT 30 PERCENT IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS AREA WITH 20
PERCENT ELSEWHERE. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...FCST IS RIGHT ON TRACK
WITH LIGHT TO MOD SW WINDS AND 2 TO 3 FT SEAS.
&&
.AVIATION...IT WAS VERY ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED OR MOVED TO
OUR EAST. MVFR VSBYS/CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK...
ESPECIALLY AT THE TLH AND VLD TERMINALS WHICH SAW SOME DECENT RAIN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND
THE TLH AND PFN TERMINALS AND WE WENT WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GOULD/BARRY
000
FXUS62 KMLB 030150
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
948 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
LINE OF STORMS TO THE NORTH HAS DECREASED OVER LAND SINCE SUNSET BUT
CONTINUES OVER ATLANTIC. OUTFLOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
APPROACHING NRN SECTIONS OF EC FL. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
JET ASCENT OVER REGION MAY HELP FOCUS ADDITIONAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. WILL TWEAK POPS DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHC/ISOLD MENTION FOR OVERNIGHT AND KEEP THUNDER MENTION IN.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR ISOLD SHRA/TSRA AND SOME
MVFR/LCL IFR REDUCTIONS DUE TO LOW STRATUS/BR LATE NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...WILL NUDGE WINDS UP SLIGHTLY 1ST PERIOD WITH UPDATE.
(PREVIOUS)FRI-MON...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DRIFT NE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES/FL STRAITS...RESULTING IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SWRLY
DLM FLOW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA/SW ATLC. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE A
BIT WEAKER THOUGH ALLOWING THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTN. THE LIMITED FETCH LENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP WIND
WAVES AOB 2FT NEARSHORE...AOB 3FT OFFSHORE. FURTHERMORE...ANY SWELL
COMPONENT THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD AS THE
STORM MOVES OFFSHORE WILL BE BROKEN UP BY THE OFFSHORE WINDS. THE
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL GENERATE CHOPPY...SHORT PERIOD SEAS OVER THE
OPEN ATLC FROM TIME TO TIME.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
GLITTO/MOSES/VAN DYKE
000
FXUS62 KJAX 030129 AAA
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
925 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE ERN U.S. TROF KICKED OFF
QUITE A SQUALL LINE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT ACRS GA/AL THAT
ROARED OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACRS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES
DOWN ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF HAIL UP TO QUARTER
SIZE...WITH MOST OF THE DAMAGE ACRS SERN GA. THAT ENERGY IS
MOVING OFF THE SERN U.S. COAST AND DRAGGING THE LAST OF THE SQUALL
LINE WITH IT. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE PCPN FREE...BUT
VICINITY OF STATIONARY FRONT AND LINGERING BOUNDARIES MAY BE
ENOUGH TO KICK OFF AN ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
STEERING FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE WEST. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FOG FORMATION FAIRLY PATCHY IN
NATURE. FOR FRIDAY...ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING ACRS
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SCTD TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN WITH MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 90S WITH HEAT
INDICES INTO THE 100-105 RANGE. STORMS WILL FOCUS MORE ACRS NERN
FL FRI AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD SVR TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ONCE
AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED TAF SITES WITH VARIABLE WINDS FOR A WHILE
UNTIL THE GRADIENT SOUTHWEST FLOW REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVERNIGHT.
JUST THE USUAL PATCHY LOW CEILINGS TOWARD MORNING...THEN ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH NEXT IMPULSE AIDED BY DIURNAL HEATING ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SCEC
POSTED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO WINDS. SEAS ONLY ABOUT 2 TO 4
FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC CHANGES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
AS TROUGHING MAINTAINS ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 71 96 68 97 / 20 20 10 10
SSI 77 94 76 91 / 30 20 20 20
JAX 75 96 72 96 / 30 30 30 20
SGJ 75 92 75 91 / 20 30 30 20
GNV 73 95 73 95 / 20 30 20 20
OCF 74 94 73 94 / 20 30 20 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
HESS/LETRO/KEEGAN
000
FXUS62 KKEY 030112
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
915 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTH
NEAR 5 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 80S. ONLY ABOUT FOUR DEGREES OF COOLING
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO LIGHT TO GENTLE SURFACE WINDS OVER WATER
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.
.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND SEASONABLY
MOIST...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUE JUST UNDER ONE AND
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...PWAT VALUES MAY BE JUST UNDER TWO
INCHES...WHICH WOULD BE NEAR THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY JULY.
THERE IS ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. BE THAT AS IT MAY...LACK OF A
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER SHOULD LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
TONIGHT. THE CURRENT ZONE FORECASTS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS HANDLES
THIS SITUATION WELL...SO NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
GENTLE NORTH BREEZES THIS EVENING SHOULD TRANSITION TO LIGHT
SOUTHEAST BREEZES OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AT THE KEYS ISLAND
TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND/OR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINALS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND REMAIN AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1888...THE LOW TEMPERATURE
IN KEY WEST WAS 69 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 2ND...A RECORD WHICH STILL
STANDS 121 YEARS LATER.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION//NOWCASTS...................BWC
DATA ACQUISITION.....................TF
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KMFL 030030
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
830 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY HAS DIED DOWN CONSIDERABLY THIS
EVENING...AND WITH NOT MUCH CONVECTION UPSTREAM HAVE LOWERED POPS
SOME IN MOST AREAS. DID NOT WANT TO LEAVE A DRY FCST OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY GIVEN WHAT`S HAPPENED THE PAST FEW EVENINGS WITH AN
UPTICK IN ACTIVITY...BUT FEEL AT LEAST AFTER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY IS LIKELY. THE 00Z MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWED SOME
DRYING OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...WITH PWATS DROPPING BELOW
2 INCHES. THIS IS DUE TO SOME DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AS
THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE AXIS TRIES TO NOSE NORTH INTO THE REGION.
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE CWA...BUT IF THERE IS SOME
THINNING OF THESE CLOUDS WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORM OVER
INTERIOR AREAS. WILL MONITOR THESE TRENDS BEFORE ADDING TO THE
FCST HOWEVER.
/STRASSBERG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009/
AVIATION...ONLY MENTIONED VCSH FOR THE EAST TERMINALS TONIGHT BUT
FOR KAPF, USED A TEMPO TO 03Z IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN TS. WINDS
WILL GO LGT/VRBL OVERNIGHT AND THEN THE SEABREEZES WILL BE ACTIVE
BY JUST AFTER NOON FRIDAY WITH EAST TERMINALS GOING SE 8-10
KNOTS. THIS MIGHT ENHANCE ACTIVITY BUT DON`T EXPECT ANYMORE
ACTIVITY THAN TODAY. FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THERE IS A CHC OF
WATERSPOUTS NEAR KAPF.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO NUDGE INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND IT CURRENTLY IS
NORTH OF NASSAU BUT JUST SOUTH OF KEY WEST... AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ITS SLOW NORTHWARD TREK THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES... A TROUGH CONTINUES TO EVER SO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST AND SLOWLY FILLS. A SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND CURRENTLY IS ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY.
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO S FL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, THEN TRAVEL UP TO NORTH OF THE LAKE THEN SOUTH AGAIN BY
MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW FAIRLY LIGHT AND ALLOW
FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG BOTH COASTS. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
ALSO BE ALLOWED TO SLIGHTLY DECREASE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, BUT
PWATS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY LESS THAN
2". THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A SLIGHT BIT OF MID LEVEL COOLING
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY, BUT WITH SEA BREEZES PUSHING INLAND MOST
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE PALM
BEACH COAST... WHICH WILL STILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
AND STILL UNDER THE S-SW FLOW. WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND
SLIGHTLY LESS PWAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONVECTION WILL BE LIKE A MORE
NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN.
AVIATION...NUMEROUS TSRA DEVELOPING OVER INTERIOR AND MOVING
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS SO HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR TSRA
CONDITIONS FROM 18-21Z ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS. IFR IS POSSIBLE,
BUT WILL BE BRIEF. WILL CONTINUE WITH VCTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KAPF. /DG
MARINE...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT BACK AND FORTH FROM THE
STRAIGHTS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND BACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP S FL IN A FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW WITH
WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS, OUTSIDE OF
TSRA, THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 89 76 91 / 30 70 40 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 89 78 89 / 30 60 40 50
MIAMI 77 90 78 90 / 30 60 40 50
NAPLES 76 90 76 92 / 50 60 20 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...65/GS
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...18/GR
000
FXUS62 KTBW 030009
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
809 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE FROM
THE BAY AREA SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE
COMING ASHORE IN LEE COUNTY. A LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA AND LARGE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS
DIVING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PENINSULA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AND THEN RE-FIRE FRIDAY WITH
THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION DRIFTING SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY.
CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THE SITUATION WELL. WILL LIKELY UPDATE
THE FORECAST TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH INTO FRIDAY EVENING DUE TO
THE AMBIENT CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION (03/00 - 03/24)...ISOLD TSRA WITH TEMPO MVFR KFMY AND KRSW
TIL ABOUT 02Z THEN VFR OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT SW WINDS...EXCEPT
VARIABLE KFMY AND KRSW. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BEGIN 12-14Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON... WILL LIMIT TO VC AND CB REMARKS.
WINDS PICK UP TO 5-7KT FROM THE SW IN THE MORNING THEN BECOME
WESTERLY 9-10KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 90 78 92 / 40 50 20 30
FMY 75 91 76 94 / 30 60 30 40
GIF 75 93 76 96 / 40 50 20 30
SRQ 76 89 76 91 / 40 50 20 30
BKV 73 92 73 94 / 30 40 20 20
SPG 79 89 80 92 / 40 50 20 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DE SOTO-HARDEE-
HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-
SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...05/CANTIN
AVIATION...09/RUDE
000
FXUS62 KMFL 030008
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
808 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.AVIATION...ONLY MENTIONED VCSH FOR THE EAST TERMINALS TONIGHT BUT
FOR KAPF, USED A TEMPO TO 03Z IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN TS. WINDS
WILL GO LGT/VRBL OVERNIGHT AND THEN THE SEABREEZES WILL BE ACTIVE
BY JUST AFTER NOON FRIDAY WITH EAST TERMINALS GOING SE 8-10
KNOTS. THIS MIGHT ENHANCE ACTIVITY BUT DON`T EXPECT ANYMORE
ACTIVITY THAN TODAY. FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS THERE IS A CHC OF
WATERSPOUTS NEAR KAPF.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO NUDGE INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND IT CURRENTLY IS
NORTH OF NASSAU BUT JUST SOUTH OF KEY WEST... AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ITS SLOW NORTHWARD TREK THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES... A TROUGH CONTINUES TO EVER SO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST AND SLOWLY FILLS. A SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND CURRENTLY IS ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY.
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO S FL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, THEN TRAVEL UP TO NORTH OF THE LAKE THEN SOUTH AGAIN BY
MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW FAIRLY LIGHT AND ALLOW
FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG BOTH COASTS. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
ALSO BE ALLOWED TO SLIGHTLY DECREASE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, BUT
PWATS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY LESS THAN
2". THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A SLIGHT BIT OF MID LEVEL COOLING
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY, BUT WITH SEA BREEZES PUSHING INLAND MOST
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE PALM
BEACH COAST... WHICH WILL STILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
AND STILL UNDER THE S-SW FLOW. WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND
SLIGHTLY LESS PWAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONVECTION WILL BE LIKE A MORE
NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN.
AVIATION...NUMEROUS TSRA DEVELOPING OVER INTERIOR AND MOVING
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS SO HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR TSRA
CONDITIONS FROM 18-21Z ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS. IFR IS POSSIBLE,
BUT WILL BE BRIEF. WILL CONTINUE WITH VCTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KAPF. /DG
MARINE...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT BACK AND FORTH FROM THE
STRAIGHTS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND BACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP S FL IN A FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW WITH
WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS, OUTSIDE OF
TSRA, THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 89 76 91 / 30 70 40 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 89 78 89 / 30 60 40 50
MIAMI 77 90 78 90 / 30 60 40 50
NAPLES 76 90 76 92 / 50 60 20 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...65/GS
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...18/GR
000
FXUS62 KKEY 021952
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
352 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...
THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEEN RELUCTANT TO MOVE NORTH...WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS CONTINING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ALOFT...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH AN UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DRIFTING WEST OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE KEYS WITH THE GEIGER KEY
INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER CALCULATIONS AROUND 1.55 INCHES.
THEREFORE...ACTIVITY OFF THE UPPER KEYS HAS DISSIPATED WITH A WEAK
CUMULUS LINE STRUGGLING ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOWER KEYS.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHUTTING DOWN THE MODERATE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...LOCAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE ONLY FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR RAINFALL. WITH DRY AIR...THIS SHOULD KEEP POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. HOWEVER...A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA. AN AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ARRIVES
OVERHEAD...BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT AT THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. ANY
STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY SEND A BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD AS
850-700 MB WINDS APPEAR TO TURN NORTHERLY. THEREFORE LOW CHANCE POPS
WERE ADDED FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS EXPANDS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. RISING HEIGHTS AND DRYING WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO OUR
WEST...ALLOWING YET ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH TO SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO BE SUPPRESSED
SOUTHWARD WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY
WITH SPEEDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF VARIABLE WINDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES TO MAINTAIN ANY
ONE WIND DIRECTION. MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND/OR VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 200 DEGREES BETWEEN 6 AND
8 KNOTS UNTIL AROUND DUSK...THEN BACKING TO ABOUT 120 DEGREES AT THE
SAME SPEED.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........JR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DAF
DATA COLLECTION.......TF
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KTAE 021922
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
322 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF. ONE TO TWO WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL APPROACH
OUR AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM/GFS
DO INDICATE SOME DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO WORK ITS WAY
INTO OUR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES DURING THIS LAST PERIOD OF THE
SHORT TERM AS WELL. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL OVER THE AREA AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS DISPLACED
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE CWA. THE MODELS DO INDICATE THIS BOUNDARY
DRIFTING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD NORTH FLORIDA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY CONCENTRATE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE CWA WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE OUT OF THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD
WITH HEAT INDICES CLIMBING JUST ABOVE 100 EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER TROUGH ALONG ERN SEABOARD WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED ON ITS HEELS BY ANOTHER TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST
SUNDAY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. UPSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE PLAINS THEN EJECTS TROUGH OFFSHORE AND EXPANDS TOWARD THE
OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. SURFACE LOW OVER LOWER OH VALLEY
MOVES EWD SUNDAY WITH TRAILING FRONT STALLING EAST-WEST ACROSS CNTRL
PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA/SC EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH A PREVAILING
SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN TANDEM
WITH SEA BREEZES AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTN/EVE CONVECTION EACH DAY. ACTIVITY MAY BE ACCENTUATED BY THE
APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN EITHER
CASE...POPS WILL BE AT NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY JULY. TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT MODERATE BACK TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE
MARINE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
GRADIENT WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD TREND DOWN THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS WITH A
RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR VSBYS/CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BY
DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE VLD TERMINAL. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST COVERAGE WILL REMAIN AROUND THE TLH AND
PFN TERMINALS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OR
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DRIER AIR
WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO FILTER INTO PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY APPROACH CRITICAL VALUES
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST ON FRIDAY WITH A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
RED FLAG CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE INLAND
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND UP INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOULD INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND END ANY CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 95 74 98 68 99 / 30 20 30 20 30
PANAMA CITY 91 79 93 77 94 / 30 20 20 20 20
DOTHAN 98 73 97 68 99 / 20 20 10 10 20
ALBANY 96 73 97 67 98 / 20 20 10 10 20
VALDOSTA 94 73 97 68 97 / 20 20 20 20 20
CROSS CITY 92 75 95 72 96 / 30 20 30 20 30
APALACHICOLA 90 78 93 77 92 / 30 20 20 20 20
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GIBBS/MROCZKA/JAMSKI
000
FXUS62 KMLB 021855
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT/FRI...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF EC FL WITH AREAS
OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS INTO THIS EVENING SOUTH OF ORLANDO ND
THE CAPE...ISOLATED NORTH. ALL CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY
MIDNIGHT. AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO GET SHUNTED FARTHER
SOUTH BY FRI SO HAVE DRAWN POPS RANGING FROM 50% FAR SOUTH TO 30%
ORLANDO NORTHWARD. DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW
FOR STRONG HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING
THE LOW TO MID 90S MOST AREAS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE A BIT
WEAKER WHICH WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FINALLY MAKE
AN APPEARANCE AFTER BEING SHUT OUT THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SAT-SUN...LARGE CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY E/NE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN H25 JET MAX OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS/SW CANADA DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE
MID ATLC REGION. DLM NW FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL
PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH DOWN INTO N FL
WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT. A PREFRONTAL MOISTURE BAND OVER
THE FL PENINSULA WILL PRESS SOUTH ALONG WITH THE FRONT...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR A N/S BREAKDOWN FOR STORM COVERAGE...LOWER OVER THE
NRN COUNTIES...HIGHER OVER THE SOUTH.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED SO FAR TO THE SOUTH...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE...IF ANY...CAPPING IN THRU THE H85-H50 LYR. THIS WILL ALLOW
DIURNAL CONVECTION TO START RELATIVELY EARLY...WHICH WILL LIMIT SVR
STORM POTENTIAL. STILL...LCL STRONG CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AS A POOL OF COOL AIR (H70 TEMPS AROUND 7C...H50 TEMPS AROUND -7C)
WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROF AS IT PRESSES SOUTH. MAX/MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABV CLIMO AVG DUE TO THE SWRLY FLOW.
MON-WED...MID RANGE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WRT THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SHORT WAVE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ECMWF MAINTAINS THE BROAD LOW AS IT DRIFTS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A NEW (AND
SURPRISINGLY POTENT) SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE NATIONS MIDSECTION
BEFORE PUSHING IT OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.
EITHER WAY...WITH PERSISTENT TROFFING IN THE EAST...THE BERMUDA
RIDGE AXIS SHOULD REMAIN SUPPRESSED OVER THE FL STRAITS...RESULTING
IN A CONTINUED DLM W/SWRLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. WHILE
THIS WILL PREVENT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM PUSHING UP FROM THE
CARIBBEAN...MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE GOMEX WILL SUPPORT SCT DIURNAL
POPS THAT WILL PACK OVER THE ERN PENINSULA FROM MID AFTN THRU EARLY
EVENING. SWRLY FLOW WILL KEEP MAX/MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M90S AND
L/M70S...RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.AVIATION...
BULK OF CONVECTION MOVING OFFSHORE THE COAST SO SHOULD SEE A
RETURN TO VFR CONDS ALL TAF SITES BY 21Z DESPITE SOME LINGERING
STRATIFORM RAIN MLB SOUTH. COULD SEE PATCHY IFR/MVFR CIGS AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT MAINLY SOUTH OF MCO BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS.
&&
.MARINE...
FRI-MON...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DRIFT NE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES/FL STRAITS...RESULTING IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SWRLY DLM
FLOW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA/SW ATLC. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE A
BIT WEAKER THOUGH ALLOWING THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP
EACH AFTN. THE LIMITED FETCH LENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
KEEP WIND WAVES AOB 2FT NEARSHORE...AOB 3FT OFFSHORE.
FURTHERMORE...ANY SWELL COMPONENT THAT TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN
THE ERN SEABOARD AS THE STORM MOVES OFFSHORE WILL BE BROKEN UP BY
THE OFFSHORE WINDS. THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL GENERATE CHOPPY...
SHORT PERIOD SEAS OVER THE OPEN ATLC FROM TIME TO TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 75 93 75 92 / 20 30 20 20
MCO 75 94 75 95 / 20 40 20 30
MLB 72 92 73 91 / 30 40 20 30
VRB 74 90 74 92 / 40 40 20 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KELLY
RADAR....WEITLICH
000
FXUS62 KMFL 021852
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
252 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO NUDGE INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND IT CURRENTLY IS
NORTH OF NASSAU BUT JUST SOUTH OF KEY WEST... AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ITS SLOW NORTHWARD TREK THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES... A TROUGH CONTINUES TO EVER SO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST AND SLOWLY FILLS. A SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND CURRENTLY IS ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY.
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO S FL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, THEN TRAVEL UP TO NORTH OF THE LAKE THEN SOUTH AGAIN BY
MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW FAIRLY LIGHT AND ALLOW
FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG BOTH COASTS. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
ALSO BE ALLOWED TO SLIGHTLY DECREASE DURING THIS TIME FRAME, BUT
PWATS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY LESS THAN
2". THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A SLIGHT BIT OF MID LEVEL COOLING
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY, BUT WITH SEA BREEZES PUSHING INLAND MOST
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE PALM
BEACH COAST... WHICH WILL STILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
AND STILL UNDER THE S-SW FLOW. WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND
SLIGHTLY LESS PWAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONVECTION WILL BE LIKE A MORE
NORMAL SUMMER PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...NUMEROUS TSRA DEVELOPING OVER INTERIOR AND MOVING
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS SO HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR TSRA
CONDITIONS FROM 18-21Z ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS. IFR IS POSSIBLE,
BUT WILL BE BRIEF. WILL CONTINUE WITH VCTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KAPF. /DG
&&
.MARINE...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT BACK AND FORTH FROM THE
STRAIGHTS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND BACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP S FL IN A FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW WITH
WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS, OUTSIDE OF
TSRA, THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 89 76 91 / 60 70 40 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 89 78 89 / 50 60 40 50
MIAMI 77 90 78 90 / 40 60 40 50
NAPLES 76 90 76 92 / 40 60 20 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...04/AT
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...57/DG
000
FXUS62 KJAX 021840
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
235 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE GULF COAST. H2O VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVER THE N 1/2 OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE CUTTING ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND S AL. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE E CAROLINAS ACROSS S CENTRAL GA
AND INTO S AL. FORCING FROM THE SFC FRONT AND THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING A DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION WITH
LIGHTNING DETECTED N OF KABY. WEAK SUBSIDENCE NOTED AT 500MB ON
THE KJAX AND KTAE 12Z SOUNDINGS. WITH MODEST SW SFC FLOW...TEMPS
RANGE FROM NEAR 90 OVER THE S ZONES TO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE N.
.SHORT TERM...BEST MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE S ZONES.
HOWEVER...LOW AND MID-LEVEL FORCING ENCROACHING FROM THE NW SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLD CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO OUR NW ZONES
LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. AS THIS FORCING BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE...LOW END CHANCE TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS SE GA AND EXTREME NE FL DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
TIMING WILL BE A HUGE FACTOR AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE WANING BY
THEN.
BETTER CHANCES OF POPS OVER NE FL AND EXTREME SE GA ON FRI AS
STRONGER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO ENTER THE AREA FROM THE NW DURING
MAX DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE STILL CAPPED THE POPS AT AROUND 30
PERCENT DUE TO CONTINUED DRY AIR ALOFT. EVEN DRIER AIR PROGGED BY
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. HAVE REDUCED POPS TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER COASTAL SE GA AND MUCH OF NE FL WITH LOW END
CHANCE OVER OUR SE ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THRU PERIOD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND A FEW LOCALES
IN THE UPPER 90S. SW FLOW LEAD TO A LATE ATLC SEABREEZE AND LITTLE
RELIEF FROM HEAT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...FRONT N OF THE AREA AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL
LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP AREA-WIDE DURING MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS...AND LOWER OVERALL THICKNESSES...WILL LEAD
TO MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONTINUES WITH VCTS FOR NOW BY 21Z-22Z. HAVE ELECTED
TO INSERT TEMPO GROUPS FOR GNV...JAX...SSI AND VQQ FOR TSRA BASED ON
MODEL GUIDANCE AND RADAR IMAGERY. VIS IMAGERY EARLIER TODAY SHOWED
INCREASED CU FIELD OVER SRN GA WHICH SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED OF
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SCT TSRA DEVELOPING AND SHIFTING
ESE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ENDED TSRA BY ABOUT 02Z. INSERTED MVFR
BR FOR VQQ FOR NOW BUT ANTICIPATE PREVAILING VFR INTO FRI.
&&
.MARINE...ANTICIPATE ANOTHER NOCTURNAL WIND INCREASE OVER OFFSHORE
WATERS AND WILL HEADLINE A SCEC. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SINKS SWD
NEXT 48 HRS WHICH WILL DECREASE OVERALL PRES GRADIENT SO NIGHTLY
SURGE FRI NIGHT MAY NOT A SUPPORT ANOTHER REPEAT OF TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NWD/BECOMES DIFFUSE BY SUN WHICH WILL
SETUP PREVAILING AND INCREASING SWLY FLOW AGAIN WITH SCEC HEADLINES
POSSIBLE AGAIN...MAINLY AT NIGHT AND IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 71 96 68 97 / 20 20 10 10
SSI 77 94 76 91 / 30 20 20 20
JAX 75 96 72 96 / 30 30 30 20
SGJ 75 92 75 91 / 20 30 30 20
GNV 73 95 73 95 / 20 30 20 20
OCF 74 94 73 94 / 20 30 20 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
CARROLL/SHASHY/MCALLISTER
000
FXUS62 KMFL 021725
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
122 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.AVIATION...NUMEROUS TSRA DEVELOPING OVER INTERIOR AND MOVING
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS SO HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR TSRA
CONDITIONS FROM 18-21Z ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS. IFR IS POSSIBLE,
BUT WILL BE BRIEF. WILL CONTINUE WITH VCTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KAPF.
&&
.UPDATE...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS S FL THIS MORNING
WITH THE PWAT ON THE MFL MORNING SOUNDING STILL AT 2.22". THE SW
FLOW HAS WEAKENED A BIT AND WITH HEATING INTO THE LOW 90S EXPECTED
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND WITH SCT TO
NUM SHRA AND TSRA. WITH THE SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND THE SW FLOW OFF THE SURFACE A WEAK AND BRIEF
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, BUT THE LIKELINESS OF OCCURRENCE IS
EXTREMELY LOW.
ALSO...EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG THE LAKE
AREA (AND POINTS N) SO DECIDED TO BUMP POPS TO CATEGORICAL AS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GET GOING SOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. /TINGLER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
BROKEN DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AND THERE
ARE A FEW EMBEDDED SHRA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SO PLACED VCSH IN
KAPF RIGHT AT 12Z. CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN FIRE UP AFT 14Z TO 16Z
TODAY BUT EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME AND
HAVE PLACED VCTS IN ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS
WEAKENED AND THIS MAY ALLOW EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO SET UP LATE
THURSDAY BUT IT WILL NOT PUSH INLAND VERY FAR AND WILL GET PUSHED
BACK OUT TO SEA BEFORE 00Z.
CURRENTLY...AN OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL FLA HAS BECOME
STATIONARY IN THE SE GULF OF MEX AND NE ACROSS MAINLAND MONROE...NW
MIAMI-DADE AND CENTRAL AND E BROWARD COUNTIES. THIS BOUNDARY HALTED
OVER THE AREA AS THE PREVAILING SSW FLOW HALTED THE SE MOVEMENT OF
THE OUTFLOW. THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS RAMPING UP WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITH SOME TRAINING OF PRECIPITATION
ECHOES WITH SOME RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR. LOOKING UPSTREAM
INTO THE SE GULF OF MEX...THIS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING.
DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA SLOWLY
FILLING AND LIFTING NE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE 50H RIDGE OVER THE S
ATLC/CENTRAL CARIB TO LIFT N WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING OVER S FLA. THIS WILL ALLOW AN E COAST SEA BREEZE FOR THE SE
COAST BUT WILL KEEP THE SAME SEA BREEZE NEAR THE PALM BEACH COAST.
WITH A SW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING...THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD CONVERGENCE
WITH CHANCES OF RAIN HIGHER E COAST. ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
DIVES INTO THE UPPER VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES...DEEPENING THE
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND...IN TURN...NUDGING THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER S FLA S AGAIN...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE FOLLOWING ON
SATURDAY. THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST
AND THE WESTERLY STEERING WINDS PERSIST THOUGH WEAKENING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINS THAN HAS BEEN
SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO SLOWER TSTM MOVEMENT. WEAK SHORT
WAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY TO ENHANCE CONVECTION WHICH WILL
GO ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. BUT ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND SOME MID LEVEL COOLING
INCREASES INSTABILITY AS WELL. MAX/MIN TEMPS SEASONAL.
EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE/UPPER
RIDGE MAY BUILD BACK N OVER S FLA NEXT WEEK WITH MORE STABLE/DRIER
CONDITIONS BUT ALSO DEVELOPING A DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL
REVERSE THE DIURNAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN BACK TO AN E TO W PATTERN.
BUT THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE WAFFLED ON THIS IDEA THE PAST 2 DAYS
SO...WE`LL WAIT AND SEE.
MARINE...SSW WINDS BECOMING 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS DECREASING
TO LESS THAN 4 FEET ALL AREA TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS
BECOME MORE SE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 74 89 74 / 70 30 60 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 75 89 75 / 60 30 60 30
MIAMI 91 75 90 76 / 60 30 60 30
NAPLES 90 76 89 76 / 70 30 50 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...04/AT
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...57/DG
000
FXUS62 KTBW 021722
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
122 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
TROUGH...ENHANCING LIFT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW
LIFTS OUT...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH TO THE EAST WITH SOME DRIER
AIR ENTERING THE REGION FOR TOMORROW AND INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. RISING HEIGHTS WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FRIDAY POPS TO BE LIKELY IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED POPS
ELSEWHERE. BY SATURDAY POPS DROP FURTHER WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER THE NATURE COAST AND LOW TO MID SCATTERED
POPS CENTRAL TO S.
FLOODING POTENTIAL REMAINS WITH SATURATED GROUNDS AND MORE RAIN
MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE GULF AND INTO INLAND LOCATIONS. FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MORE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING AS WELL AS BRINGING RIVER LEVELS UP EVEN FURTHER.
MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY THEN
INCREASING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY WITH HIGH HEAT
INDEXES POSSIBLE. MIN TEMPS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL.
.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT-THU)...UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE STATE
THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN BECOME ZONAL MONDAY. THEN ANOTHER SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE
WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING
SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA AND MOVING SOME UPPER ENERGY OVER THE
STATE. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS
SOUTH FL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. GENERALLY S/SW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WITH THE UPPER PATTERN IN
PLACE...WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FROM SRQ SOUTH. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPO MVFR TO LCL IFR
CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE E GULF AS RIDGE SLOWLY
SHIFTS NWARD FROM THE FL STRAITS TONIGHT TO THE S CENTRAL FL PENINSULA
AND SE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR RETURN TO SW FLOW. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUT THEY CAN BE
BRIEFLY HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 90 78 92 / 40 50 20 30
FMY 75 91 76 94 / 30 60 30 40
GIF 75 93 76 96 / 40 50 20 30
SRQ 76 89 76 91 / 40 50 20 30
BKV 73 92 73 94 / 30 40 20 20
SPG 79 89 80 92 / 40 50 20 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DE SOTO-HARDEE-
HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-
SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...40/CARLISLE
MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/DAVIS
LONG TERM/AVIATION...24/COLSON
000
FXUS62 KMLB 021443
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1043 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE DISCUSSION...
BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENT FL TODAY. MORNING
CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS PCP WATER AROUND 2 INCHES...SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR HAS WORKED SOUTHWARD FROM N FL.
SO THIS WILL FOCUS HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (60-70%) FROM ORLANDO
SOUTH. WESTERLY GRADIENT WIND WILL DECREASE A BIT...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. THE SEA BREEZE WOULD REMAIN PINNED
TO THE COAST...IF IT DEVELOPS...BUT WOULD PROVIDE A BOOST TO
STORMS THAT COLLIDE WITH IT.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS AT MCO/ORL/SFB/LEE/DAB WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND BECOME
VFR NLT 16Z. HEATING WILL FOLLOW WHICH WILL SPARK SCT STORMS BY
AFTN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 30 KT GUSTS AND BRIEF IFR VSBYS. HIGHEST
COVERAGE LOOKS SOUTH OF MCO.
&&
.MARINE...
OFFSHORE (W/SW) FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS SEAS NEAR SHORE...UP TO
4 FT WELL OFFSHORE. THE STRONGER OVERNIGHT GRADIENT WINDS (15-20
KNOTS) ARE DECREASING BASED ON NOAA BUOYS 009 AND 010 SO WILL
REMOVE THE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE COULD DEVELOP IN THE LATE
AFTN NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 91 75 93 76 / 40 20 40 20
MCO 91 76 92 75 / 60 30 40 20
MLB 90 73 90 74 / 60 30 50 30
VRB 89 72 89 74 / 70 30 50 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
KELLY
000
FXUS62 KMFL 021358
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
958 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS S FL THIS MORNING
WITH THE PWAT ON THE MFL MORNING SOUNDING STILL AT 2.22". THE SW
FLOW HAS WEAKENED A BIT AND WITH HEATING INTO THE LOW 90S EXPECTED
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND WITH SCT TO
NUM SHRA AND TSRA. WITH THE SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND THE SW FLOW OFF THE SURFACE A WEAK AND BRIEF
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, BUT THE LIKELINESS OF OCCURRENCE IS
EXTREMELY LOW.
ALSO...EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG THE LAKE
AREA (AND POINTS N) SO DECIDED TO BUMP POPS TO CATEGORICAL AS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GET GOING SOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. /TINGLER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
BROKEN DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AND THERE
ARE A FEW EMBEDDED SHRA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SO PLACED VCSH IN
KAPF RIGHT AT 12Z. CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN FIRE UP AFT 14Z TO 16Z
TODAY BUT EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME AND
HAVE PLACED VCTS IN ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS
WEAKENED AND THIS MAY ALLOW EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO SET UP LATE
THURSDAY BUT IT WILL NOT PUSH INLAND VERY FAR AND WILL GET PUSHED
BACK OUT TO SEA BEFORE 00Z.
CURRENTLY...AN OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL FLA HAS BECOME
STATIONARY IN THE SE GULF OF MEX AND NE ACROSS MAINLAND MONROE...NW
MIAMI-DADE AND CENTRAL AND E BROWARD COUNTIES. THIS BOUNDARY HALTED
OVER THE AREA AS THE PREVAILING SSW FLOW HALTED THE SE MOVEMENT OF
THE OUTFLOW. THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS RAMPING UP WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITH SOME TRAINING OF PRECIPITATION
ECHOES WITH SOME RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR. LOOKING UPSTREAM
INTO THE SE GULF OF MEX...THIS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING.
DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA SLOWLY
FILLING AND LIFTING NE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE 50H RIDGE OVER THE S
ATLC/CENTRAL CARIB TO LIFT N WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING OVER S FLA. THIS WILL ALLOW AN E COAST SEA BREEZE FOR THE SE
COAST BUT WILL KEEP THE SAME SEA BREEZE NEAR THE PALM BEACH COAST.
WITH A SW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING...THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD CONVERGENCE
WITH CHANCES OF RAIN HIGHER E COAST. ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
DIVES INTO THE UPPER VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES...DEEPENING THE
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND...IN TURN...NUDGING THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER S FLA S AGAIN...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE FOLLOWING ON
SATURDAY. THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST
AND THE WESTERLY STEERING WINDS PERSIST THOUGH WEAKENING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINS THAN HAS BEEN
SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO SLOWER TSTM MOVEMENT. WEAK SHORT
WAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY TO ENHANCE CONVECTION WHICH WILL
GO ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. BUT ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND SOME MID LEVEL COOLING
INCREASES INSTABILITY AS WELL. MAX/MIN TEMPS SEASONAL.
EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE/UPPER
RIDGE MAY BUILD BACK N OVER S FLA NEXT WEEK WITH MORE STABLE/DRIER
CONDITIONS BUT ALSO DEVELOPING A DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL
REVERSE THE DIURNAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN BACK TO AN E TO W PATTERN.
BUT THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE WAFFLED ON THIS IDEA THE PAST 2 DAYS
SO...WE`LL WAIT AND SEE.
MARINE...SSW WINDS BECOMING 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS DECREASING
TO LESS THAN 4 FEET ALL AREA TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS
BECOME MORE SE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 74 89 74 / 70 30 60 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 75 89 75 / 60 30 60 30
MIAMI 91 75 90 76 / 60 30 60 30
NAPLES 90 76 89 76 / 70 30 50 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...04/AT
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...57/DG
000
FXUS62 KJAX 021346
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
946 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS STILL
AFFECTING THE CWA OVER NRN FL...SLOWLY DISSIPATING. LARGE SCALE
PICTURE SHOWS LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH SWATH OF
MOISTURE CONFINED OVER CENTRAL FL AND POINTS SWD. SUBSIDENCE/DRY
AIR IS NOTED OVER SE GA AND PORTIONS OF NE FL THAT HELPED
SUSTAINED/PRODUCE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED OVER MS AND AL WHICH MODELS
HINT AT COMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BEST POPS SEEMED CONFINED OVER OUR SRN ZONES CLOSER TO DEEPEST
MOISTURE BUT MAY TWEAK THIS DOWN FURTHER BASED ON WV IMAGERY
SHOWING DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO MOVE ESEWD. UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS ABOUT HOW STRONG AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BE ONCE IT
MOVES INTO AN UNSTABLE AFTERNOON ENVIRONMENT. MODELS SHOW
INCREASING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WILL CONT
WITH ABOVE GUIDANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE 30-40% RANGE WITH LOWEST
POPS AROUND 10-20% N OF WAYCROSS. JAX SOUNDING SHOWED PWAT OF 1.5
INCHES AND MODIFIED CAPE OF 4200J AND LI OF -8 FOR TEMP/DEWPOINT
OF 95/73 SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLD STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
DAMAGING WINDS.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER SE GA TO START...MAX TEMPS THERE IN
THE UPPER 90S LOOK POSSIBLE WITH MID 90S MOSTLY IN NE FL. HAVE
NUDGE TEMPS UP OVER MARION-FLAGLER COUNTIES. HEAT INDICES APPEAR
TO MAX OUT AROUND 105-109...SLIGHTLY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CONDS.
&&
.AVIATION...NARROW AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUED TO AFFECT
JAX...CRG AND VQQ AT THIS TIME IN THE IFR TO LOW END MVFR RANGE.
THIS SHOULD END WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH VFR EXPECTED
THEREAFTER. VCTS FORECAST FOR TAFS EXCEPT A TEMPO GROUP FOR GNV
STARTING 16Z. AT THIS TIME BASED ON LATEST VIS...THUNDERSTORMS MAY
NOT INITIATE NEAR TAFS UNTIL AFTER 19Z.
&&
.MARINE...OBSERVATIONS SHOW W TO SW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT AND SEAS
3 FT OR LESS. CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 97 71 96 70 / 20 20 30 10
SSI 94 77 92 78 / 20 20 20 20
JAX 96 74 95 73 / 30 30 30 20
SGJ 92 75 91 75 / 30 30 40 30
GNV 93 73 94 73 / 40 30 40 20
OCF 91 73 94 74 / 50 30 40 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/MCALLISTER
000
FXUS62 KTAE 021344
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
944 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM EAST TO WEST ALONG A LINE JUST NORTH OF
ALBANY AND DOTHAN AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. OBSERVATIONS SHOWED MAINLY LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA AND A DECENT DEWPOINT
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. MODELS
INDICATE THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF COAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE MORNING TAE SOUNDING SHOWED
THE PWAT AT 1.53 AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE PROFILE. THE LOCALLY RAN WRF DID INDICATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. ANY SHOWERS
OR STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD GENERALLY BE BRIEF CONSIDERING
THE VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
WILL BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
GRIDS WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.
WHILE THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS LOW ON RAIN
CHANCES...THE 00Z RUN OF THE LOCAL WRF MODEL SUGGESTS IT WILL BE A
MORE ACTIVE DAY FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FL TERMINALS.
FOR THIS REASON...HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR IN TSRA AT
PFN AND TLH FROM 18Z TO 24Z. FOR DHN...ABY AND VLD...HAVE SCT-BKN
CB CLOUDS FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GIBBS/MROCZKA/JAMSKI
000
FXUS62 KKEY 021336
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
936 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...
A SURFACE RIDGE HAS DRIFTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...CAUSING WINDS TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY THIS
MORNING. WHILE SPEEDS HAVE BEEN DROPPING OFF ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS...A LANDBREEZE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE EXTREME UPPER KEYS WITH
LIGHT WEST WINDS OBSERVED AT MOLASSAS REEF. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN FLORIDA BAY AND OUT
BEYOND CARYSFORT REEF. A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO OBSERVED OVER GULF
WATERS WELL NORTH OF KEY WEST.
THE MORNING KEY WEST SOUNDING SHOWED SLIGHT WARMING IN LAYERS BETWEEN
900 AND 550 MB...WITH SOUTH WINDS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN 24 HOURS AGO
EXTENDING UP THROUGH 750 MB. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS CALCULATED AT
1.84 INCHES...WITH MOST OF THE DRYING OCCURRING FROM 950 MB THROUGH
575 MB. NOT SURPRISINGLY CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS INDICATED THAT
CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING MAY BE A LITTLE OUT OF REACH THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM...REST OF TODAY
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL SLOWLY BRING DRYER AIR
ALOFT INTO THE OUTER STRAITS. GOES SOUNDING INDICATED PRECIPITABLE
WATERS MAY BE LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL CUBA. IT IS
LIKELY A ZONE UPDATE WILL BE REQUIRED TO ADJUST POPS DOWNWARD TODAY
AS WELL AS IMPROVE SKY CONDITION AFTER SOME OF THE AREAS OF
ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRROCUMULUS DECREASE.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SOUTH WINDS ARE DECREASING WITH RECENT REPORTS INDICATING SPEEDS
7 TO 9 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME VARIABLE WINDS ARE OCCURRING
NEAR KEY LARGO AND EASTERN FLORIDA BAY. EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY
BECOME SOUTH ALL LOCATIONS TODAY. WINDS WILL BACK TO EAST BY FRIDAY
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS ALL THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
ISLAND TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND/OR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINALS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 180 DEGREES AROUND 6 KNOTS...THEN
BECOMING MORE EAST OVERNIGHT.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........JR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DAF
DATA COLLECTION.......ROSS
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KTBW 021311
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
911 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...ANOTHER WET DAY ON TAP AS CONVECTION FIRING IN E GULF
THIS MORNING MOVING ASHORE INTO THE SUNCOAST. UPPER TROF AXIS
REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH VORT MAX AND JET STREAK MOVING OVERHEAD
AS SEEN IN WV SAT IMAGERY. SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE FL
STRAITS WITH DEEP SW FLOW OVER THE AREA. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWING THIS
DEEP FLOW WITH PWATS AT NEARLY 2 AND A QUARTER INCHES...LIS MINUS 8
AND 4000 CAPE. SO MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE
AND ADDITIONAL DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
LATER THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FLOODING
POTENTIAL CONTINUES WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND ADDITIONAL
AREAL COVERAGE OF 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN SOME LOCALLY UP TO 5 INCHES
STILL POSSIBLE EXACERBATE ALREADY FLOODING RIVERS...SMALL
STREAMS...AND URBAN AREAS. FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES 10 PM TONIGHT.
CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATE RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES AS WELL
WITH THIS PERSISTENT SW-W FLOW SO BEACH GOERS NEED TO USE CAUTION
IF ENTERING WATER. GRIDS AND FORECASTS ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAUSING TEMPO MVFR TO LCL
IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...GRADIENT SLIGHTLY RELAXING THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SW-W FLOW OVER THE E GULF LATEST OFFSHORE BUOY REPORTS
HAVE WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS NEAR
CONVECTION AND SEAS 2-4 FT. WINDS AND SEAS TO HOLD ON THIS RANGE
REST OF TODAY BEFORE WEAKENING FURTHER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS HIGHER NEAR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 86 77 90 78 / 90 40 50 20
FMY 87 75 91 76 / 80 30 60 20
GIF 88 75 92 76 / 80 40 50 20
SRQ 86 76 89 76 / 90 40 50 20
BKV 88 73 91 73 / 60 30 40 20
SPG 86 79 89 80 / 90 40 50 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-
HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE...25/DAVIS
AVIATION...24/COLSON
000
FXUS62 KMFL 021121
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
721 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
BROKEN DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AND THERE
ARE A FEW EMBEDDED SHRA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SO PLACED VCSH IN
KAPF RIGHT AT 12Z. CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN FIRE UP AFT 14Z TO 16Z
TODAY BUT EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME AND
HAVE PLACED VCTS IN ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS
WEAKENED AND THIS MAY ALLOW EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO SET UP LATE
THURSDAY BUT IT WILL NOT PUSH INLAND VERY FAR AND WILL GET PUSHED
BACK OUT TO SEA BEFORE 00Z.
&&
CURRENTLY...AN OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL FLA HAS BECOME
STATIONARY IN THE SE GULF OF MEX AND NE ACROSS MAINLAND MONROE...NW
MIAMI-DADE AND CENTRAL AND E BROWARD COUNTIES. THIS BOUNDARY HALTED
OVER THE AREA AS THE PREVAILING SSW FLOW HALTED THE SE MOVEMENT OF
THE OUTFLOW. THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS RAMPING UP WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITH SOME TRAINING OF PRECIPITATION
ECHOES WITH SOME RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR. LOOKING UPSTREAM
INTO THE SE GULF OF MEX...THIS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING.
DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA SLOWLY
FILLING AND LIFTING NE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE 50H RIDGE OVER THE S
ATLC/CENTRAL CARIB TO LIFT N WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING OVER S FLA. THIS WILL ALLOW AN E COAST SEA BREEZE FOR THE SE
COAST BUT WILL KEEP THE SAME SEA BREEZE NEAR THE PALM BEACH COAST.
WITH A SW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING...THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD CONVERGENCE
WITH CHANCES OF RAIN HIGHER E COAST. ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
DIVES INTO THE UPPER VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES...DEEPENING THE
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND...IN TURN...NUDGING THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER S FLA S AGAIN...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE FOLLOWING ON
SATURDAY. THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST
AND THE WESTERLY STEERING WINDS PERSIST THOUGH WEAKENING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINS THAN HAS BEEN
SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO SLOWER TSTM MOVEMENT. WEAK SHORT
WAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY TO ENHANCE CONVECTION WHICH WILL
GO ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. BUT ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND SOME MID LEVEL COOL
-ING INCREASES INSTABILITY AS WELL. MAX/MIN TEMPS SEASONAL.
.EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE/UPPER
RIDGE MAY BUILD BACK N OVER S FLA NEXT WEEK WITH MORE STABLE/DRIER
CONDITIONS BUT ALSO DEVELOPING A DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL
REVERSE THE DIURNAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN BACK TO AN E TO W PATTERN.
BUT THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE WAFFLED ON THIS IDEA THE PAST 2 DAYS
SO...WE`LL WAIT AND SEE.
&&
.MARINE...SSW WINDS BECOMING 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS DECREASING
TO LESS THAN 4 FEET ALL AREA TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS
BECOME MORE SE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 74 89 74/ 60 30 60 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 75 89 75/ 60 30 60 30
MIAMI 91 75 90 76/ 60 30 60 30
NAPLES 90 76 89 76/ 60 30 50 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...15/JR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...30/KOB
000
FXUS62 KKEY 021041 AAA
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
641 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED OUR COASTAL WATERS FORECAST. TWO CONSECUTIVE
OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS FAR ABOVE WHAT WE
EXPECTED -- THE THIRD MORNING IN A ROW THIS HAS OCCURRED. SORRY FOR
ANY INCONVENIENCE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009/
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LIGHT SOUTH BREEZES.
OUR RADAR SHOWED A CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
UPPER KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS AT PRESS TIME. MOST TOPS WERE
AROUND 40 THOUSAND AND LIGHTNING WAS FREQUENT. MOVEMENT WAS TOWARD
THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.
&&
.ANALYSIS AND FORECASTS...
OUR SITUATION IS CHANGING SLOWLY. HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN SITUATED
OVER CUBA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND IS NOW DRIFTING NORTH...OR JUST
EXPANDING THROUGH THE STRAITS. THIS IS BACKING OUR WINDS INTO THE
SOUTH WHILE DECREASING SPEEDS AT THE SAME TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO WE EXPECT A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND REGIME FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY SUNDAY OR
MONDAY EAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.
WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING WEAK OR ABSENT...LOCAL AND REGIONAL FORCING
CAN PREDOMINATE. OUR AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST WITH PW >2"...AND IS
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH K-INDEX IN THE 30`S AND LI`S -4 TO -8.
THIS SHOWS WE ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DEEP CONVECTION AND LACK ONLY A
TRIGGER. MOREOVER...WITH LAYER-MEAN AIRFLOW SO LIGHT CELLS WILL MOVE
SLOWLY AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS VERY POSSIBLE ONCE IT GETS STARTED.
TYPICALLY THE TRIGGER IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM AN EARLIER
STORM...OR SOME MAINLAND EFFECT.
THIS WILL BE OUR SETUP THROUGH THE COMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT WILL BE
WARM AND HUMID WITH NOT MUCH OF A BREEZE -- SO A LITTLE RAIN MIGHT BE
WELCOME. IT IS A DIFFICULT FORECASTING ENVIRONMENT HOWEVER AS THERE
IS SO LITTLE TO KEY ON. OH WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD TODAY ON ALL KEYS WATERS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT OUR GULF WATERS OFF SHORE MAINLAND MONROE WILL BE FAVORED
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE STRAITS AND THE
BAY RELATIVELY QUIET.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
ISLAND TERMINALS. WOULD EXPECT A QUIET PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN AND MOST OF THE MORNING
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SCATTERED
ONCE AGAIN BY AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS POINT...BUT TIMELY
AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED IF NECESSARY. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS. &&
.TEMPS AND POPS...
KEY WEST 89 80 89 80 / 30 20 20 20
MARATHON 91 80 91 80 / 30 20 20 20
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........DFM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....JACOBSON
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KMLB 020822
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
422 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY...REMNANTS OF MCS THAT PROPAGATED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PENINSULA YESTERDAY WAS NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP IF THE STATE. THE
LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN THE DIVERGENT RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET
SITUATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BUT CIRRUS DECK HAS BEEN
THINNING.
BAND OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BETWEEN SOUTHEAST U.S. FRONTAL
TROUGH AND RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE HIGHEST MOISTURE IS SHOWN BY THE NAM/GFS
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA. THE MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT
NORTHWARD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION TODAY AS LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE
NUDGES SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. HOWEVER...
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE PENINSULA SHOULD LIMIT THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS SHOULD SET UP A
MODEST GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN
THE SOUTH.
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PENINSULA
AGAIN TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE MORE HEATING THAN YESTERDAY SO THIS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE MORE VIGOROUS. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL SHOULD BE OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AGAIN AS REPEAT
SHOWERS/STORMS PUSH IN OFF THE GULF...BUT DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
INITIAL CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
INTERIOR/EAST PART OF PENINSULA.
PRESENTLY THERE IS MUCH LESS CONVECTION ALONG/OFFSHORE WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SO EXPECT THAT THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE A LITTLE LATER TODAY IN EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THEREFORE WE WILL NOT SEE THE ANOMALOUS HIGH TEMPS THAT
OCCURRED YESTERDAY IN LAKE/ORANGE COUNTIES (LOWER 80S).
TONIGHT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE
EVENING HOURS THEN DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT.
FRI-SUN...LARGE CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY E/NE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN H25 JET MAX OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS/SW CANADA DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE
MID ATLC REGION. DLM NW FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL
PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH DOWN INTO N FL
WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT. A PREFRONTAL MOISTURE BAND OVER
THE FL PENINSULA WILL PRESS SOUTH ALONG WITH THE FRONT...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR A N/S BREAKDOWN FOR STORM COVERAGE...LOWER OVER THE
NRN COUNTIES...HIGHER OVER THE SOUTH.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED SO FAR TO THE SOUTH...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE...IF ANY...CAPPING IN THRU THE H85-H50 LYR. THIS WILL ALLOW
DIURNAL CONVECTION TO START RELATIVELY EARLY...WHICH WILL LIMIT SVR
STORM POTENTIAL. STILL...LCL STRONG CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AS A POOL OF COOL AIR (H70 TEMPS AROUND 7C...H50 TEMPS AROUND -7C)
WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROF AS IT PRESSES SOUTH. MAX/MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABV CLIMO AVG DUE TO THE SWRLY FLOW.
MON-WED...MID RANGE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WRT THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SHORT WAVE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ECMWF MAINTAINS THE BROAD LOW AS IT DRIFTS NE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS A NEW (AND
SURPRISINGLY POTENT) SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE NATIONS MIDSECTION
BEFORE PUSHING IT OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.
EITHER WAY...WITH PERSISTENT TROFFING IN THE EAST...THE BERMUDA
RIDGE AXIS SHOULD REMAIN SUPPRESSED OVER THE FL STRAITS...RESULTING
IN A CONTINUED DLM W/SWRLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. WHILE
THIS WILL PREVENT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM PUSHING UP FROM THE
CARIBBEAN...MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE GOMEX WILL SUPPORT SCT DIURNAL
POPS THAT WILL PACK OVER THE ERN PENINSULA FROM MID AFTN THRU EARLY
EVENING. SWRLY FLOW WILL KEEP MAX/MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M90S AND
L/M70S...RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.AVIATION...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRATUS CEILINGS EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT A PERIOD OF HEATING TO FOLLOW THAT AND IGNITE
SCATTERED STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BRINGING GUSTS TO 30 KT...
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
&&
.MARINE...THE EARLY MORNING MAY START OUT WITH 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE
AND NECESSITATE AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE. THEN THROUGH TONIGHT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY EASE AND CAUSE THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. EXPECT OFFSHORE MOVING
STORMS TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AGAIN...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
BEING SOUTH OF THE CAPE.
FRI-MON...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DRIFT NE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES/FL STRAITS...RESULTING IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SWRLY DLM
FLOW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA/SW ATLC. THE LIMITED FETCH LENGTH OF
THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP WIND WAVES AOB 2FT NEARSHORE...AOB
3FT OFFSHORE. FURTHERMORE...ANY SWELL COMPONENT THAT TRIES TO WORK
ITS WAY DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD AS THE STORM MOVES OFFSHORE WILL BE
BROKEN UP BY THE OFFSHORE WINDS. THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL GENERATE
CHOPPY...SHORT PERIOD SEAS OVER THE OPEN ATLC FROM TIME TO TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 91 75 93 74 / 40 20 50 30
MCO 91 76 93 74 / 60 30 60 30
MLB 90 73 91 73 / 60 30 60 40
VRB 89 72 91 73 / 70 30 60 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM....BRAGAW
000
FXUS62 KKEY 020753
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
353 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LIGHT SOUTH BREEZES.
OUR RADAR SHOWED A CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
UPPER KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS AT PRESS TIME. MOST TOPS WERE
AROUND 40 THOUSAND AND LIGHTNING WAS FREQUENT. MOVEMENT WAS TOWARD
THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.
&&
.ANALYSIS AND FORECASTS...
OUR SITUATION IS CHANGING SLOWLY. HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN SITUATED
OVER CUBA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND IS NOW DRIFTING NORTH...OR JUST
EXPANDING THROUGH THE STRAITS. THIS IS BACKING OUR WINDS INTO THE
SOUTH WHILE DECREASING SPEEDS AT THE SAME TIME.
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO WE EXPECT A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND REGIME FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY SUNDAY OR
MONDAY EAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL.
WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING WEAK OR ABSENT...LOCAL AND REGIONAL FORCING
CAN PREDOMINATE. OUR AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST WITH PW >2"...AND IS
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH K-INDEX IN THE 30`S AND LI`S -4 TO -8.
THIS SHOWS WE ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DEEP CONVECTION AND LACK ONLY A
TRIGGER. MOREOVER...WITH LAYER-MEAN AIRFLOW SO LIGHT CELLS WILL MOVE
SLOWLY AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS VERY POSSIBLE ONCE IT GETS STARTED.
TYPICALLY THE TRIGGER IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM AN EARLIER
STORM...OR SOME MAINLAND EFFECT.
THIS WILL BE OUR SETUP THROUGH THE COMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT WILL BE
WARM AND HUMID WITH NOT MUCH OF A BREEZE -- SO A LITTLE RAIN MIGHT BE
WELCOME. IT IS A DIFFICULT FORECASTING ENVIRONMENT HOWEVER AS THERE
IS SO LITTLE TO KEY ON. OH WELL.
&&
.MARINE...
WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD TODAY ON ALL KEYS WATERS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT OUR GULF WATERS OFF SHORE MAINLAND MONROE WILL BE FAVORED
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE STRAITS AND THE
BAY RELATIVELY QUIET.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
ISLAND TERMINALS. WOULD EXPECT A QUIET PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN AND MOST OF THE MORNING
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SCATTERED
ONCE AGAIN BY AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS POINT...BUT TIMELY
AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED IF NECESSARY. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS. &&
.TEMPS AND POPS...
KEY WEST 89 80 89 80 / 30 20 20 20
MARATHON 91 80 91 80 / 30 20 20 20
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........DFM
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....JACOBSON
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KTAE 020715
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 AM EDT THU JUL 02 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AT UPPER LEVELS...
THE LARGE SCALE CONUS PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED WITH A SLIGHT
EWD SHIFT THRU TONIGHT. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED BY RIDGING ACROSS THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND PLAINS STATES AND A LONGWAVE TROUGHING INTO
THE EAST WITH AXIS FROM GREAT LAKES SWD INTO WRN FL PANHANDLE.
TROUGH IS ANCHORED BY AN UNSEASONABLY LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
SPINNING ACROSS LAKE HURON. CWA RESIDES ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS TROUGH. SERIES OF VORT MAXES TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND SOUTHEAST U.S. INCLUDING CWA WHICH WILL ENHANCE LIFT.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HRS...EXPECT SOME DEAMPLIFICATION. THE LOW
GRADUALLY LIFT NE AND BEGIN TO OPEN UP ACROSS UPPER ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND TROUGH WEAKENS SHIFTING EWD TO ERN SEABOARD AND WEAKEN
THRU SAT WITH RISING HEIGHTS INCHING EWD INTO CWA. THIS ALLOWS
UPSTREAM RIDGE TO FLATTEN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THRU SW CONUS AND
NWLY STEERING FLOW TO ADVECT DRIER AIR OF CWA.
AT LOWER LEVELS...
MSAS INDICATES THAT REMNANTS OF OLD SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST
GULF SEEMS TO HAVE WEAKENED. ANOTHER RELATIVELY DRY FRONT (BASICALLY
ANOTHER MOISTURE GRADIENT) WAS NOTED FROM LOW NY/NJ SSW TO ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF AL/GA. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OBSERVED ACROSS CNTRL
GA/SE ALA. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL SPREAD A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE
SWD. FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS GA AND AL LATER
TODAY AND STALL NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND
REMAINS THERE OVERNIGHT AS WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG BOUNDARY INVCNTY OF
JAX. ABOVE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION LATER
TODAY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS (BUT ESPECIALLY WRF) SHOW RIDGE BUILDING
OVER S FL WITH BAND OF MOISTURE OVER NRN GULF OF MEX SLIDING SLOWLY
BACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SETS UP ALONG THE BIG BEND AREA AND ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
TODAY...
SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS SHOW MVFR CONDS EARLY ACROSS ERN BIG
BEND/ADJACENT GA COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...NAM AND ESPECIALLY MAV SHOW
VERY DRY DAY. HOWEVER BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
FOCUS ALONG THE NRN SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. ALSO...LATEST WRF WHICH CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL IMPLIES THAT
RESIDUAL GULF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ENERGIZED BY BAND OF MOISTURE
MOVING NWD AND WILL INTERACT WITH GULF BREEZES TO LOCALLY ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE. NAM AND ESPECIALLY MAV HAVE A HISTORY OF UNDER
FORECASTING THIS SEASON. SO WILL DISCOUNT MAV/GFS DRY POPS...LEAN
TOWARDS WRF AND GO WITH SCT POPS.
BIG QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS DURING MID-LATE AFTN INTO EVENING.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL MOVE UNDER WSW STEERING FLOW FROM
ADJACENT GULF WATERS TO ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY SE BIG
BEND. WHILE DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK...WITH ANY PASSING
SHORT WAVE ENERGY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTY MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE AND A FEW ISOLD SVR
TSTMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY NEAR SEABREEZE.
THEREFORE...WILL BE FORECASTING HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE POPS. BEST
CHANCES FOR MID AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS (30-50% POPS WITH NW-SE
GRADIENT) WILL BE ALONG OUR SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES FAVORED BY
WEST/NW STEERING FLOW (COASTAL AND EASTERN FL BIG BEND).
WITH ADDED CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL TWEAK DOWN INHERITED MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ERN SITES. STILL...AWAY FROM STORMS...WEST TO
SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HOT MAX TEMPS INTO
THE MID/UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDEX READINGS INTO THE 100-105 RANGE.
TONIGHT...LATEST WRF LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN PREV RUN WITH CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY OVER WATER AND LARGELY ENDS CONVECTION BY SUNSET FROM
NW-SE. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF. THEREFORE WILL EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOP OFFSHORE WITH THE DEVELOPING LAND BREEZE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WILL GO WITH 30-50 N-S POP GRADIENT UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN 20-30 POP
GRADIENT. TROPICAL AIRMASS ACROSS NERN FL WILL SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
FOG/STRATUS WITH VSBYS IN THE 3-5SM MAINLY ACRS INLAND AREAS.
FRIDAY...
SHAPING UP TO BE PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...HOWEVER IT IS STILL
DISCERNIBLE IN THE PROGGED PRESSURE PATTERNS. THEREFORE THE LOW
LEVEL FOCUS ADDED TO THE TYPICAL SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE SHOULD
RESULT IN A SCATTERING OF STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE. 20-50 POP
GRADIENT WITH HIGHEST POPS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE ALONG OUR FAVORED
SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES UNDER W/NW FLOW. CONTINUED VERY WARM
(MID 90S)...BUT LIKELY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN ON THURSDAY WITH
THE BETTER ORGANIZED CU FIELD AND COOLING EFFECT OF ANY SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...
30 PCT POP ACROSS THE BOARD WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER TROUGH ALONG
ERN SEABOARD WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
ON ITS HEELS BY ANOTHER TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST SUNDAY TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS THEN EJECTS TROUGH OFFSHORE AND EXPANDS TOWARD THE OH
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. SURFACE LOW OVER LOWER OH VALLEY
MOVES EWD SUNDAY WITH TRAILING FRONT STALLING EAST-WEST ACROSS CNTRL
PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA/SC EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH A PREVAILING SWLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN TANDEM WITH SEA
BREEZES AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTN/EVE
CONVECTION EACH DAY. ACTIVITY MAY BE ACCENTUATED BY THE APPROACHING
FRONT FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN EITHER CASE...POPS WILL BE
AT NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY JULY. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT MODERATE BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AT TLH AND VLD
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON PERSISTENCE...WILL FCST MVFR TO IFR VSBYS/CIGS
AT THESE TERMINALS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
PFN. AFTER THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...EXPECT VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THURSDAY WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND
10 KNOTS. WHILE THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS LOW ON RAIN
CHANCES...THE 00Z RUN OF THE LOCAL WRF MODEL SUGGESTS IT WILL BE A
MORE ACTIVE DAY FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FL TERMINALS.
FOR THIS REASON...HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR IN TSRA AT
PFN AND TLH FROM 18Z TO 24Z. FOR DHN...ABY AND VLD...HAVE SCT-BKN CB
CLOUDS FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...A STALLED FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL
PRODUCE GENERALLY MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE ELEVATED THAN WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED
FOR EARLY JULY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TODAY THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 95 75 96 72 / 40 40 30 20
PANAMA CITY 94 79 93 77 / 40 40 30 20
DOTHAN 98 73 96 72 / 30 30 20 20
ALBANY 97 73 97 70 / 30 20 20 20
VALDOSTA 96 73 96 72 / 40 40 30 20
CROSS CITY 93 74 93 74 / 40 40 40 20
APALACHICOLA 93 79 93 77 / 40 40 30 20
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/SYNOPSIS...BLOCK
AVIATION/FIRE WX/LONG TERM...JAMSKI
000
FXUS62 KJAX 020701
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SHORT TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE MOVING BACK NORTH TODAY
INTO NE FL/SE GA AS UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES STARTS MOVING EAST
AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER S FL. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT OVER N GA
WILL SINK SOUTH RESULTING IN SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
SE GA BY EVENING. MOIST SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND KEEPING EAST COAST SEABREEZE AT THE BEACHES WITH SURFACE
COLD FRONT STALLING OVER SE GA. WILL CAP POPS AT 30 PERCENT OVER
NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY AS LINGERING DRY MID LEVEL AIR
WILL CUT DOWN ON AREAL COVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH AND TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP A MOIST SW FLOW OVER
THE AREA. WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE TEMPS AND POPS WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS IN BR/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE AT FL TAF SITES
THROUGH 12Z (ESPECIALLY AT KGNV AND KVQQ)...FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDITIONS. WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN VCTS WORDING FOR LOCAL TERMINALS...
EXCEPT FOR KGNV WHERE TEMPO GROUP WILL BE INSERTED WITH 12Z PACKAGE
AS SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TODAY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A KGNV-KSGJ LINE.
&&
.MARINE...A PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS EACH NIGHT DUE TO NOCTURNAL INFLUENCES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 97 71 96 70 / 20 20 30 10
SSI 94 77 92 78 / 20 20 20 20
JAX 97 74 95 73 / 30 30 30 20
SGJ 91 75 91 75 / 30 30 40 30
GNV 93 73 94 73 / 30 30 40 20
OCF 90 73 94 74 / 50 30 40 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ZIBURA/ZAPPE/
000
FXUS62 KTBW 020645
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
245 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
...ANOTHER WET DAY OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SATURDAY)...CUTOFF LOW CONTINUES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE L/W
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL ENHANCE
LIFT OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. U/L LOW WILL
BEGIN TO OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ON FRIDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY
PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL ALLOW
DRIER AIR ALOFT TO ADVECT OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO INCREASE SUBSIDENCE OVER
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL...AND THE
CHANCE OF RAIN FALLING BELOW CLIMATIC NORMALS.
VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. SOME DRIER AIR HAS WORKED IT`S WAY OVER
THE EXTREME NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WHERE POPS WILL BE LOWER TODAY
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. PCPW VALUES REMAIN WELL OVER 2 INCHES...AND
COMBINED WITH LIFT PROVIDED BY U/L ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH AND U/L DIFFLUENCE...ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY
UNSTABLE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TODAY
FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH TO FORT MYERS. CONVERGENT BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP BACK NORTH
TOWARDS TAMPA BAY DURING THE MORNING AS U/L DIFFLUENCE SEEMS TO BE
FOCUSED IN THIS REGION. VERY DIFFICULT QPF FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OFF
TAMPA BAY BY SUNRISE ADVECTING ONSHORE AND EXPANDING SOUTHEAST. MAIN
THREAT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES...AND LOCALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES. FLOOD WATCH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW
LYING AREAS LIKELY. SIGNIFICANT RISES WILL CONTINUE ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS IN THE TAMPA BAY AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. WATERSPOUTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED SHORT LIVED TORNADO AFTER THEY MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST TWO DAYS. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...AT LEAST WE STILL HAVE
SOME CONTINUITY TO WORK WITH IN THE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK. THROUGH
MONDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH IN SHOWING A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE...SURFACE AND ALOFT...ACROSS SOUTH OR PERHAPS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THIS WILL PROVIDE US WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS THAN WHAT
WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING LATELY...BUT AFTERNOON STORMS ARE STILL
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. BY TUESDAY...THE
ECMWF BEGINS TO DIG A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
ONCE AGAIN. THIS PUSHES A FRONT ALL THE WAY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WITH
A RATHER POTENT BAND OF PRECIPITATION SETTLING IN ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS JUST MOVES A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON TUESDAY AND OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A BIT OF A ROLE REVERSAL FROM
YESTERDAY WHEN THE GFS WAS DIGGING THE TROUGH TOO DEEPLY AND THE
ECMWF WAS LESS ROBUST. I WILL STICK WITH CONTINUITY AND
CLIMATOLOGY...ALLOWING A WEAKER TROUGH TO PASS BY NORTH OF THE
REGION AROUND DAY 6 OR 7...HAVING LITTLE IF ANY REAL IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER.
MODEL POPS ARE IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE...AND OUR FORECAST IS
ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THOSE POPS. I WILL TRIM BACK POPS OVER CHARLOTTE
AND LEE COUNTIES FOR SUNDAY...BUT JUST A BIT...GOING FROM 50 TO 40.
OTHERWISE...I PREFER TO REMAIN NEAR 40 PERCENT...WHICH IS CLOSE TO
AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
I DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME MID 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIME FRAME AND MAINLY
AWAY FROM THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST ONCE AGAIN AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE AND MOVE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL HIT THE MID
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THE HARDEST WHEN SOME IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 86 77 90 78 / 90 40 50 20
FMY 87 75 91 76 / 80 30 60 20
GIF 88 75 92 76 / 80 40 50 20
SRQ 86 76 89 76 / 90 40 50 20
BKV 88 73 91 73 / 60 30 40 20
SPG 86 79 89 80 / 90 40 50 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR
HERNANDO...PASCO...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...MANATEE...
SARASOTA...DESOTO...HARDEE...AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...EO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...EJ
000
FXUS62 KMFL 020624
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
224 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
CURRENTLY...AN OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL FLA HAS BECOME
STATIONARY IN THE SE GULF OF MEX AND NE ACROSS MAINLAND MONROE...NW
MIAMI-DADE AND CENTRAL AND E BROWARD COUNTIES. THIS BOUNDARY HALTED
OVER THE AREA AS THE PREVAILING SSW FLOW HALTED THE SE MOVEMENT OF
THE OUTFLOW. THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS RAMPING UP WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITH SOME TRAINING OF PRECIPITATION
ECHOES WITH SOME RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR. LOOKING UPSTREAM
INTO THE SE GULF OF MEX...THIS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING.
DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA SLOWLY
FILLING AND LIFTING NE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE 50H RIDGE OVER THE S
ATLC/CENTRAL CARIB TO LIFT N WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING OVER S FLA. THIS WILL ALLOW AN E COAST SEA BREEZE FOR THE SE
COAST BUT WILL KEEP THE SAME SEA BREEZE NEAR THE PALM BEACH COAST.
WITH A SW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING...THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD CONVERGENCE
WITH CHANCES OF RAIN HIGHER E COAST. ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
DIVES INTO THE UPPER VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES...DEEPENING THE
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND...IN TURN...NUDGING THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER S FLA S AGAIN...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE FOLLOWING ON
SATURDAY. THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST
AND THE WESTERLY STEERING WINDS PERSIST THOUGH WEAKENING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINS THAN HAS BEEN
SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO SLOWER TSTM MOVEMENT. WEAK SHORT
WAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY TO ENHANCE CONVECTION WHICH WILL
GO ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. BUT ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND SOME MID LEVEL COOL
-ING INCREASES INSTABILITY AS WELL. MAX/MIN TEMPS SEASONAL.
.EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE/UPPER
RIDGE MAY BUILD BACK N OVER S FLA NEXT WEEK WITH MORE STABLE/DRIER
CONDITIONS BUT ALSO DEVELOPING A DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL
REVERSE THE DIURNAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN BACK TO AN E TO W PATTERN.
BUT THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE WAFFLED ON THIS IDEA THE PAST 2 DAYS
SO...WE`LL WAIT AND SEE.
&&
.MARINE...SSW WINDS BECOMING 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS DECREASING
TO LESS THAN 4 FEET ALL AREA TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS
BECOME MORE SE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 74 89 74/ 60 30 60 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 75 89 75/ 60 30 60 30
MIAMI 91 75 90 76/ 60 30 60 30
NAPLES 90 76 89 76/ 60 30 50 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...15/JR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...30/KOB
000
FXUS62 KMFL 020524
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
124 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OVERCAST DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AND THERE ARE A FEW EMBEDDED SHRA
SO HAVE LEFT VCSH IN THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. CONVECTION WILL
ONCE AGAIN FIRE UP AFT 14Z TO 16Z THURSDAY BUT EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME AND HAVE PLACED VCTS IN ALL
SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS WEAKENED AND THIS MAY
ALLOW EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO SET UP LATE THURSDAY BUT IT WILL
NOT PUSH INLAND VERY FAR AND WILL GET PUSHED BACK OUT TO SEA
BEFORE 00Z.
30/KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 823 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2009/
UPDATE...
NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
RESIDES FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO NAPLES AND THE ADJACENT GULF
WATERS...AND CONTINUES TO SAG STEADILY ESE AS IT IS PUSHED BY AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH. BEHIND
THIS AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TRAILS
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST INTO THE GULF. OTHER ACTIVITY IS MOVING
NE TOWARDS SW FL FROM THE KEYS...AND STILL OTHER ACTIVITY MOVING N
OFF CUBA IS COMING THROUGH THE FL STRAITS. WHILE THERE SHOULD BE
SOME TENDENCY FOR SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACTIVITY AS THE EVENING WEARS
ON...IT IS MOVING TOWARDS THE SERN METRO AREAS WHICH HAD A LOT OF
HEATING BUT RELATIVE LACK OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
DEEP/MOIST TROPICAL SW FLOW WE ARE IN...ALONG WITH SEVERAL BATCHES
OF CONVECTION AND OUTFLOWS MOVING THIS WAY...HAVE INCREASED THE
POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GULF COASTAL AREAS COULD
SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF AT LEAST SHOWERS OVERNIGHT DUE TO PERSISTENT
SWRLY FLOW OFF THE GULF.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
MOVING STEADILY WITH LITTLE OR NO TRAINING OF CELLS SO FAR.
/STRASSBERG
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2009/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER, THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS THIS EVENING APPEAR TO BE
IN THE KPBI AND KAPF AREAS. WENT WITH TEMPO CONDITIONS TO A HIGH
IFR CONDITION IN STORMS TIL 03Z. KEPT IN VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS
REST OF TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL
BUILD BY THURSDAY MORNING SO A SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR THE EAST TERMINALS AND MOSTLY SOUTH OF KPBI. CHCS OF
RW/TSTMS WILL BE LESS ON THURSDAY THAN TODAY DUE TO A BIT MORE
STABLE AIR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2009/
DISCUSSION...THE PATTERN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS SIMILAR TO
THE SET-UP FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS` WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
STRAIGHTS AND A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE AHEAD OF A NEAR COMPLETELY WASHED OUT FRONT
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS PATTERN WILL SLOWLY
CHANGE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST AND LIFTS THE UPPER TROUGH OUT AND AWAY
FROM THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD IN
AND PWATS TO DROP BELOW OR TO AROUND 2" ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA... HOWEVER EVEN AS THIS OCCURS THURSDAY AND INTO FRI A
FAIRLY ROBUST S WV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FL AND SLOWLY ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY KEEPING THE AREA UNDER DIVERGENCE
ALOFT AND SLIGHT COOLING IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS MAY JUST
CONCENTRATE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WHERE DAYTIME HEATING WILL THE
BEST...THE INTERIOR... DUE TO THE LIGHT SURFACE FLOW ALLOWING THE
SEA BREEZES TO PUSH INLAND. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE MAY STAY
NORTH OF THE AREA TO ALLOW A MORE NORMAL PATTERN, HOWEVER GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF YET ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG
THE EAST US WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE STRAIGHTS AGAIN.
AVIATION...TSRA IS CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION
AT THIS TIME WITH NO IMMINENT RISKS TO THE TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH TSRA
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WHERE
STRONG HEATING AND CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED...DUE TO DIFFICULTIES IN
TIMING/LOCATION...WILL MAINTAIN JUST VCTS...GOING TO VCSH
OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN VCTS FOR TOMORROW. ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS...BUT LIKELY FOR 15
MIN OR LESS GIVEN FAST STORMS MOVEMENT EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS AT OR
ABOVE 30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS. /DG
MARINE...A FAIRLY LIGHT WIND REGIME IS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD
WITH SEAS AT OR BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS AT OR BELOW 15KTS... EXCEPT
INSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 75 90 76 / 60 30 60 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 77 90 77 / 50 30 50 30
MIAMI 91 76 91 77 / 40 20 40 30
NAPLES 90 75 90 75 / 60 20 50 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
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