[top]
000
FXUS62 KFFC 040255 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1050 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.UPDATE...
DRY AIR MASS FOR EARLY JULY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REALIZE FORECAST
LOWS. THE MAV GUIDANCE IS WAY TOO COLD...SO CURRENT FORECAST LEANS
TOWARD MET MOS AND THAT LOOKS GOOD. NO POPS THROUGH 00Z SUN.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES PLANNED.
19
&&
.PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 620 PM EDT...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
BUILDS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS WEAKENS. A
SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
ROTATE OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS TO NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW AND INCREASED CHANCE OF POPS
BEGINNING TOMORROW EVENING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. THE SURFACE FRONT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND
WARMER AIR OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 90S TOMORROW AND SUNDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN
LINE AND WILL TAKE A BLEND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FRONT REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA ON MONDAY. THE
EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE AS GFS DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. ECMWF AND CANADIAN IN BETTER AGREEMENT
ALTHOUGH ALL SCENARIOS KEEP CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WANES
AFTER WEDNESDAY AS IT DEPENDS UPON WHETHER THE SURFACE HIGH CAN SET
UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC PER THE ECMWF AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
WILL SET UP PER GFS. HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
12
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW MID CLOUDS
DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNSET. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. WIND LIGHT
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WEST SOUTHWEST 10KT BY 15Z SATURDAY.
49
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 64 92 69 89 69 / 0 5 20 40 30
ATLANTA 68 88 72 89 71 / 0 5 20 40 30
BLAIRSVILLE 57 85 63 79 63 / 5 10 60 50 30
CARTERSVILLE 59 91 65 87 66 / 10 10 40 50 30
COLUMBUS 67 96 74 94 75 / 0 0 5 30 30
GAINESVILLE 65 87 69 85 69 / 5 10 50 50 40
MACON 64 96 71 96 73 / 0 5 10 30 40
ROME 61 93 70 89 70 / 10 10 50 50 30
PEACHTREE CITY 60 91 63 89 69 / 0 5 10 30 30
VIDALIA 68 98 70 98 75 / 0 0 5 30 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
12/41/19
[top]
000
FXUS62 KCHS 040219
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1019 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE DISSIPATING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING FROM
THE NORTH FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE SEABREEZE HAS PUSHED THROUGH KCHS BUT REMAINS JUST W OF
KNBC THIS EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT SITS NEAR EXTREME SERN SC. THIS HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE
PRETTY MUCH PINNED TO THE GA COAST. SFC DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE
70S E OF THE FRONT TO TO 50S/60S W OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT AND KEEP THE AREA RAIN-FREE. LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 60S FAR INLAND WITH MID/UPPER 70S AT THE
BEACHES.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO LOWER THE LOW
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD AGAIN MIX
DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DESPITE
A SLIGHTLY EARLIER AND STRONGER SEABREEZE AND A LATE AFTERNOON
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO BRUSH PAST SOUTHERN SC...THE CAP AND DRY LOW-
LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE ONE EXCEPTION IS RIGHT ALONG THE GA COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL
BE HIGHER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE.
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MID-CLOUDS LATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT POOR AGREEMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE AREA WILL
EXPERIENCE UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF
THE AREA COULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND OF THE SEA BREEZE. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...THE WESTERLY FLOW AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA...AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH
IT DROPS THROUGH IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE
CANADIAN IS THE QUICKEST TO PROGRESS THE FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE SIMILAR STALLING THE FRONT
OUT OVER THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WAVE OR WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...WITH AGAIN SOME
DIFFERENCES IN ALL MODELS REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING.
AS FOR THE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST...EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS
THE FRONT BEGINS TO DROP INTO THE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE LINGERING
FRONT...HOWEVER THE GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD.
AS THE FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE ALLOWING THE FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA AND STALL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
BUILD FROM THE NORTH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH EACH
DAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RISING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD FOR KCHS
AND KSAV. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...PATCHY MVFR
GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR BOTH
TERMINALS...YET POTENTIAL IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
LATEST TAF SET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED IN
BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH A SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE. STRONG
NOCTURNAL WIND SURGES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
RJB
[top]
000
FXUS62 KCAE 032328
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
728 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WV LOOP SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS
WITH A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACRS THE ERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT LINGERS ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT...TIME SECTIONS
INDICATE A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LLJ..EXPECT NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND WILL STAY NEAR
CONSENSUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE THAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACRS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER ACRS THE CWA ON SAT...HOWEVER BY SUN/SUN NIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NW. THE
INCREASING MOISTURE AND APPROACHING FRONT WILL INCREASE THE CHC
FOR SHRA/TSRA FROM LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. TIME SECTIONS
SHOW A RATHER DRY ATMOSPHERE ON SAT...BUT MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE SUN/SUN NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE WITH
TEMPS/POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL GENERALLY STAY NEAR
CONSENSUS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE THAT A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL DEVELOP ACRS
THE ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE WEAKENING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY THEN SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK. THE MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING AND HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. 12Z RUN OF ECMWF IS SLOWEST OF THE GFS/NAM IN
PUSHING BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION BY WED. SREF POPS INDICATING
A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA SUN NIGHT/MON...THEN
ACRS THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA MON/MON NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MON/TUE. AS SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES S/EWD
AND SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE ERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MUCH OF MID/LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA...THEN GRADUALLY WARMING TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT
FOG IS LOW BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR MASS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CUMULUS. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCHS 032321
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
721 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE DISSIPATING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING FROM
THE NORTH FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE SEABREEZE HAS PUSHED THROUGH KCHS BUT REMAINS JUST W OF
KNBC THIS EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT SITS NEAR EXTREME SERN SC. THIS HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE
PINNED TO THE GA COAST. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 50S TODAY ON THE W SIDE OF THE FRONT. DRY WEATHER AND
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 60S FAR INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST BY
DAYBREAK SAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD AGAIN MIX
DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DESPITE
A SLIGHTLY EARLIER AND STRONGER SEABREEZE AND A LATE AFTERNOON
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO BRUSH PAST SOUTHERN SC...THE CAP AND DRY LOW-
LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE ONE EXCEPTION IS RIGHT ALONG THE GA COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL
BE HIGHER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE.
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MID-CLOUDS LATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT POOR AGREEMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE AREA WILL
EXPERIENCE UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF
THE AREA COULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND OF THE SEA BREEZE. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...THE WESTERLY FLOW AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA...AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH
IT DROPS THROUGH IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE
CANADIAN IS THE QUICKEST TO PROGRESS THE FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE SIMILAR STALLING THE FRONT
OUT OVER THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WAVE OR WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...WITH AGAIN SOME
DIFFERENCES IN ALL MODELS REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING.
AS FOR THE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST...EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS
THE FRONT BEGINS TO DROP INTO THE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE LINGERING
FRONT...HOWEVER THE GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD.
AS THE FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE ALLOWING THE FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA AND STALL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
BUILD FROM THE NORTH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH EACH
DAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RISING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD FOR KCHS
AND KSAV. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...PATCHY MVFR
GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR BOTH
TERMINALS...YET POTENTIAL IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
LATEST TAF SET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED IN
BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH A SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE. STRONG
NOCTURNAL WIND SURGES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
RJB
000
FXUS62 KFFC 032213
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
610 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
BUILDS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS WEAKENS. A
SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
ROTATE OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS TO NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW AND INCREASED CHANCE OF POPS
BEGINNING TOMORROW EVENING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. THE SURFACE FRONT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND
WARMER AIR OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 90S TOMORROW AND SUNDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN
LINE AND WILL TAKE A BLEND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA ON MONDAY. THE
EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE AS GFS DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. ECMWF AND CANADIAN IN BETTER AGREEMENT
ALTHOUGH ALL SCENARIOS KEEP CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WANES
AFTER WEDNESDAY AS IT DEPENDS UPON WHETHER THE SURFACE HIGH CAN SET
UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC PER THE ECMWF AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
WILL SET UP PER GFS. HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW MID CLOUDS
DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNSET. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. WIND LIGHT
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WEST SOUTHWEST 10KT BY 15Z SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 64 92 69 89 69 / 0 5 20 40 30
ATLANTA 68 88 72 89 71 / 0 5 20 40 30
BLAIRSVILLE 57 85 63 79 63 / 5 10 60 50 30
CARTERSVILLE 59 91 65 87 66 / 10 10 40 50 30
COLUMBUS 67 96 74 94 75 / 0 0 5 30 30
GAINESVILLE 65 87 69 85 69 / 5 10 50 50 40
MACON 64 96 71 96 73 / 0 5 10 30 40
ROME 61 93 70 89 70 / 10 10 50 50 30
PEACHTREE CITY 60 91 63 89 69 / 0 5 10 30 30
VIDALIA 68 98 70 98 75 / 0 0 5 30 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
12/41
000
FXUS62 KCHS 032020
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
420 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING FROM THE NORTH FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE SEABREEZE REMAINS PINNED TO THE COAST TODAY DUE TO 10 KTS OF
WESTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SFC DEWPOINTS N OF
THE FRONT...STALLED ALONG THE SC COAST SW INTO SOUTHERN GA...HAVE
MIXED DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S TODAY. DRY WEATHER AND CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
MID 60S FAR INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK SAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST AND THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD AGAIN MIX
DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DESPITE
A SLIGHTLY EARLIER AND STRONGER SEABREEZE AND A LATE AFTERNOON
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO BRUSH PAST SOUTHERN SC...THE CAP AND DRY LOW-
LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE ONE EXCEPTION IS RIGHT ALONG THE GA COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL
BE HIGHER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE.
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MID-CLOUDS LATE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT POOR AGREEMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE AREA WILL
EXPERIENCE UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...A DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF
THE AREA COULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND OF THE SEA BREEZE. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...THE WESTERLY FLOW AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA...AND THE EXTENT TO WHICH
IT DROPS THROUGH IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE
CANADIAN IS THE QUICKEST TO PROGRESS THE FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE SIMILAR STALLING THE FRONT
OUT OVER THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WAVE OR WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...WITH AGAIN SOME
DIFFERENCES IN ALL MODELS REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING.
AS FOR THE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST...EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS
THE FRONT BEGINS TO DROP INTO THE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCES ALOFT. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE LINGERING
FRONT...HOWEVER THE GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD.
AS THE FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFFSHORE ALLOWING THE FRONT
TO DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA AND STALL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
BUILD FROM THE NORTH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH EACH
DAY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RISING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD FOR KCHS AND
KSAV. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...PATCHY MVFR GROUND
FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR BOTH TERMINALS...YET
POTENTIAL IS NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED IN
BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH A SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL SEAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD DROP ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE. STRONG
NOCTURNAL WIND SURGES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
JRL/JAQ
000
FXUS62 KCAE 031924
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
324 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM / THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV LOOP SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS
WITH A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACRS THE ERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT LINGERS ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT...TIME SECTIONS
INDICATE A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LLJ..EXPECT NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS.
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS REASONABLY CLOSE AND WILL STAY NEAR
CONSENSUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE THAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACRS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER ACRS THE CWA ON SAT...HOWEVER BY SUN/SUN NIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NW. THE
INCREASING MOISTURE AND APPROACHING FRONT WILL INCREASE THE CHC
FOR SHRA/TSRA FROM LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. TIME SECTIONS
SHOW A RATHER DRY ATMOSPHERE ON SAT...BUT MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE SUN/SUN NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE WITH
TEMPS/POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL GENERALLY STAY NEAR
CONSENSUS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE THAT A BROAD UPPER TROF WILL DEVELOP ACRS
THE ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE WEAKENING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY THEN SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH/EAST OF THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK. THE MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING AND HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. 12Z RUN OF ECMWF IS SLOWEST OF THE GFS/NAM IN
PUSHING BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION BY WED. SREF POPS INDICATING
A HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA SUN NIGHT/MON...THEN
ACRS THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA MON/MON NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MON/TUE. AS SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES S/EWD
AND SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE ERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MUCH OF MID/LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA...THEN GRADUALLY WARMING TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 5
AND 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
SUNSET. EXPECT JUST SCATTERED CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE
OF LATE NIGHT FOG APPEARED LOW BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR MASS.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...
000
FXUS62 KFFC 031905
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
305 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
BUILDS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS WEAKENS. A
SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
ROTATE OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS TO NORTH GEORGIA TOMORROW AND INCREASED CHANCE OF POPS
BEGINNING TOMORROW EVENING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. THE SURFACE FRONT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND
WARMER AIR OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 90S TOMORROW AND SUNDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN
LINE AND WILL TAKE A BLEND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA ON MONDAY. THE
EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE AS GFS DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. ECMWF AND CANADIAN IN BETTER AGREEMENT
ALTHOUGH ALL SCENARIOS KEEP CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WANES
AFTER WEDNESDAY AS IT DEPENDS UPON WHETHER THE SURFACE HIGH CAN SET
UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC PER THE ECMWF AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
WILL SET UP PER GFS. HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 64 92 69 89 69 / 0 5 20 40 30
ATLANTA 68 88 72 89 71 / 0 5 20 40 30
BLAIRSVILLE 57 85 63 79 63 / 5 10 60 50 30
CARTERSVILLE 59 91 65 87 66 / 10 10 40 50 30
COLUMBUS 67 96 74 94 75 / 0 0 5 30 30
GAINESVILLE 65 87 69 85 69 / 5 10 50 50 40
MACON 64 96 71 96 73 / 0 5 10 30 40
ROME 61 93 70 89 70 / 10 10 50 50 30
PEACHTREE CITY 60 91 63 89 69 / 0 5 10 30 30
VIDALIA 68 98 70 98 75 / 0 0 5 30 40
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
12
000
FXUS62 KCAE 031734
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
134 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. ANOTHER FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM SUNDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING
HOURS. A FEW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. FRONT
SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO
THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN TO RISE BACK
TO MORE NORMAL READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES SLOWLY BEGINS TO MOVE OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY WITH A GENERAL WNW FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTING OVER OUR AREA. OLD FRONT REMAINS OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. MOISTURE INCREASES BY SATURDAY BUT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE RATHER LOW SO PLAN TO KEEP OVERALL
FORECAST DRY. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. BY SUNDAY...LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW CHANCE POP. MAX TEMPS AGAIN
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID- ATLANTIC
STATES WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OH VALLEY. SREF POPS INDICATING A HIGH
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY MONDAY. GFS KEEPS FRONT
IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATE INTO MID-WEEK BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE
REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY. OVERALL WILL GO WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS MONDAY...AND DECREASING TO 20-30 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FORECAST TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT NORTH WINDS BETWEEN 5
AND 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
SUNSET. EXPECT JUST SCATTERED CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE
OF LATE NIGHT FOG APPEARED LOW BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR MASS.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCHS 031733
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
133 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
STALL NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING FROM THE NORTH FOR THE
TAIL END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SC INTO
SOUTHEAST GA. MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED 10-15 KT OF WNW FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SEABREEZE PINNED TO THE
COAST WHILE SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MIXES DOWN DURING THE
DAY. A FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL BE HARD TO BREAK GIVEN
EXPECTED SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S DURING PEAK HEATING. THUS
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE WRF MODEL SUGGESTS A BIT OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS COULD SURGE
OFF THE ATLC INTO EXTREME COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING
BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE AND ON THE NE SIDE OF A WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRES REFLECTION OVER THE GEORGIA INTERSTATE CORRIDOR. WE
HAVE NOT ADDED ANY POP HIGHER THAN 10 PERCENT BUT WOULD NOT
BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A STRAY STORM SOMEWHERE ALONG COASTAL
CHARLESTON COUNTY DURING THE EVENING. THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BECOME ILL DEFINED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. A BIT OF LATE NIGHT PTCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE
U.S. 17 CORRIDOR BUT AGAIN POTENTIAL IS NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN TEXT OR GRIDDED PRODUCTS AT THIS POINT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM A FEW MID 60S WELL INLAND IN LOWER/MID 70S RIGHT
ON THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
SOLUTIONS THEN DIVERGING BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. GIVEN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
FRONTAL TIMING AND PROGRESSION THROUGH THE REGION...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
WEAK ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER
THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE CANADIAN IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS...WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY TAKING THE COLD
FRONT EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND
SUGGESTS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THEN
DISSIPATES FOR THE TAIL END OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A
GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND MORE PROGRESSIVE CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS...SO WILL LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARD THIS SOLUTION WITH THE
MORNING PACKAGE.
AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT GIVEN SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSING THE REGION AND MID TO UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS PUSHING
INLAND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. RAINFALL COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LOW TO MENTION
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
PRIMARILY ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ZONES. ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.
DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PROHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS
ACCORDINGLY. BELIEVE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN SOME BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
INCREASE POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE/LOW END LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN GOES DOWNHILL QUICKLY TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LACK OF ANY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON OVERALL
PATTERN EVOLUTION. WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A DECREASING TREND IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BECOME
MORE DOMINANT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THEN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD FOR KCHS AND
KSAV. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...PATCHY MVFR GROUND
FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR BOTH TERMINALS...YET
POTENTIAL IS NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE IN
BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHTER FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SEA BREEZE OVER INTRACOASTAL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON TAP TONIGHT
WITH SEAS MAINLY BELOW 2-3 FT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER
THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT THEN
BEGINNING TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. EXPECT A
FAIRLY GOOD NOCTURNAL SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCHS 031448
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1048 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
STALL NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING FROM THE NORTH FOR THE
TAIL END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SC INTO
SOUTHEAST GA. MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED 10-15 KT OF WNW FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SEABREEZE PINNED TO THE
COAST WHILE SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MIXES DOWN DURING THE
DAY. A FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL BE HARD TO BREAK GIVEN
EXPECTED SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S DURING PEAK HEATING. THUS
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE WRF MODEL SUGGESTS A BIT OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS COULD SURGE
OFF THE ATLC INTO EXTREME COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING
BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE AND ON THE NE SIDE OF A WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRES REFLECTION OVER THE GEORGIA INTERSTATE CORRIDOR. WE
HAVE NOT ADDED ANY POP HIGHER THAN 10 PERCENT BUT WOULD NOT
BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A STRAY STORM SOMEWHERE ALONG COASTAL
CHARLESTON COUNTY DURING THE EVENING. THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BECOME ILL DEFINED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. A BIT OF LATE NIGHT PTCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE
U.S. 17 CORRIDOR BUT AGAIN POTENTIAL IS NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN TEXT OR GRIDDED PRODUCTS AT THIS POINT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM A FEW MID 60S WELL INLAND IN LOWER/MID 70S RIGHT
ON THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
SOLUTIONS THEN DIVERGING BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. GIVEN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
FRONTAL TIMING AND PROGRESSION THROUGH THE REGION...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
WEAK ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER
THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE CANADIAN IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS...WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY TAKING THE COLD
FRONT EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND
SUGGESTS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THEN
DISSIPATES FOR THE TAIL END OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A
GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND MORE PROGRESSIVE CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS...SO WILL LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARD THIS SOLUTION WITH THE
MORNING PACKAGE.
AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT GIVEN SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSING THE REGION AND MID TO UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS PUSHING
INLAND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. RAINFALL COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LOW TO MENTION
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
PRIMARILY ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ZONES. ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.
DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PROHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS
ACCORDINGLY. BELIEVE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN SOME BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
INCREASE POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE/LOW END LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN GOES DOWNHILL QUICKLY TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LACK OF ANY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON OVERALL
PATTERN EVOLUTION. WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A DECREASING TREND IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BECOME
MORE DOMINANT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THEN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KSAV AND KCHS. CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY INVOF EITHER AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING GIVEN STRONG CAP AND POOR MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR
UPDRAFTS. SEA BREEZE WILL BE MORE PINNED IN CHATHAM COUNTY THAN IN
CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON BUT BOTH TERMINALS CAN EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND RELATIVELY LATE SEA BREEZE PASSAGES.
TOWARD DAWN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY...AT LEAST PTCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
AT BOTH AIRPORTS. WE HAVE INTRODUCED 6SM BR MENTIONS AFTER 06Z/04
TO INTRO THE POSSIBILITY WITH A LIGHT N OR NE SURFACE FLOW POTENTIAL.
WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG IS UNLIKELY AS CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE REACHED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE IN
BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHTER FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SEA BREEZE OVER INTRACOASTAL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON TAP TONIGHT
WITH SEAS MAINLY BELOW 2-3 FT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER
THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT THEN
BEGINNING TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. EXPECT A
FAIRLY GOOD NOCTURNAL SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
JRL
000
FXUS62 KCHS 031127
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
727 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
STALL NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING FROM THE NORTH FOR THE
TAIL END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM AROUND GEORGETOWN SOUTH CAROLINA TO
STATESBORO GEORGIA AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO SAG SE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY...EVENTUALLY STALLING AND BECOMING TANGLED UP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH DEEP LAYERED W
FLOW AND AFTERNOON SURFACE DEW POINTS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 60S MANY INLAND AREAS. DESPITE THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...
THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF CONVERGENCE BREAKING A DECENT MID LEVEL
CAP. THIS ALONG WITH 1000MB-500MB RH BELOW 45 PERCENT AND A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WERE ENOUGH REASONS TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST. OF COURSE WE CANNOT RULE OUT A LATE DAY ISOLATED SHOWER
OR TSTM SOMEWHERE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE QUITE CLOSE TO THE COAST...
BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE SEA BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH I-95 IN SE
GEORGIA PRIOR TO DUSK AND ONLY SLOW ADVANCEMENT TO THE N AROUND
CHARLESTON AS MEAN FLOW IS MUCH WEAKER TODAY. NO CHANGE TO VERY
WARM MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S SE SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOLID MID 90S
OVER SE GEORGIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE WRF MODEL SUGGESTS A BIT OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS COULD SURGE
OFF THE ATLC INTO EXTREME COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING
BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE AND ON THE NE SIDE OF A WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRES REFLECTION OVER THE GEORGIA INTERSTATE CORRIDOR. WE
HAVE NOT ADDED ANY POP HIGHER THAN 10 PERCENT BUT WOULD NOT
BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A STRAY STORM SOMEWHERE ALONG COASTAL
CHARLESTON COUNTY DURING THE EVENING. THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BECOME ILL DEFINED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. A BIT OF LATE NIGHT PTCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE
U.S. 17 CORRIDOR BUT AGAIN POTENTIAL IS NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN TEXT OR GRIDDED PRODUCTS AT THIS POINT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM A FEW MID 60S WELL INLAND IN LOWER/MID 70S RIGHT
ON THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
SOLUTIONS THEN DIVERGING BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. GIVEN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
FRONTAL TIMING AND PROGRESSION THROUGH THE REGION...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
WEAK ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER
THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE CANADIAN IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS...WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY TAKING THE COLD
FRONT EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND
SUGGESTS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THEN
DISSIPATES FOR THE TAIL END OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A
GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND MORE PROGRESSIVE CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS...SO WILL LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARD THIS SOLUTION WITH THE
MORNING PACKAGE.
AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT GIVEN SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSING THE REGION AND MID TO UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS PUSHING
INLAND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. RAINFALL COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LOW TO MENTION
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
PRIMARILY ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ZONES. ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.
DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PROHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS
ACCORDINGLY. BELIEVE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN SOME BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
INCREASE POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE/LOW END LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN GOES DOWNHILL QUICKLY TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LACK OF ANY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON OVERALL
PATTERN EVOLUTION. WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A DECREASING TREND IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BECOME
MORE DOMINANT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THEN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KSAV AND KCHS. CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY INVOF EITHER AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING GIVEN STRONG CAP AND POOR MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR
UPDRAFTS. SEA BREEZE WILL BE MORE PINNED IN CHATHAM COUNTY THAN IN
CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON BUT BOTH TERMINALS CAN EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND RELATIVELY LATE SEA BREEZE PASSAGES.
TOWARD DAWN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY...AT LEAST PTCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
AT BOTH AIRPORTS. WE HAVE INTRODUCED 6SM BR MENTIONS AFTER 06Z/04
TO INTRO THE POSSIBILITY WITH A LIGHT N OR NE SURFACE FLOW POTENTIAL.
WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG IS UNLIKELY AS CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE REACHED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE IN
BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
THERE IS STILL SOME JETTING LIKELY OCCURRING OVER OUR GEORGIA
WATERS BUT WRF FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 925 MB FLOW SUGGEST WE
CAN LOWER OUR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING. 15-20
KT FLOW FROM THE WSW WILL COME DOWN LATER THIS MORNING AROUND
GRAYS REEF SEAWARD AND SEAS WILL ALSO DIMINISH FROM 3-5 FT
TO 2-3 FT. OTHERWISE LIGHTER FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SEA BREEZE
OVER INTRACOASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ON TAP TONIGHT WITH SEAS MAINLY BELOW 2-3 FT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER
THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT THEN
BEGINNING TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. EXPECT A
FAIRLY GOOD NOCTURNAL SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCAE 031126
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
726 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...
MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. ANOTHER FRONT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING
HOURS. A FEW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT MOISTURE IS RATHER
LIMITED SO SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE
OBSERVED YESTERDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN TO RISE BACK TO MORE
NORMAL READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES SLOWLY BEGINS TO MOVE OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY WITH A GENERAL WNW FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTING OVER OUR AREA. OLD FRONT REMAINS OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. MOISTURE INCREASES BY SATURDAY BUT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE RATHER LOW SO PLAN TO KEEP OVERALL
FORECAST DRY. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. BY SUNDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW CHANCE POP. MAX TEMPS AGAIN
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID- ATLANTIC
STATES WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OH VALLEY. SREF POPS INDICATING A HIGH
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY MONDAY. GFS KEEPS FRONT
IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATE INTO MID-WEEK BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE
REDEVELOPS ACROS THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY. OVERALL WILL GO WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS MONDAY...AND DECREASING TO 20-30 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FORECAST TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE MODELS KEPT
THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
LIGHT NORTH WINDS. THERE WAS LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. EXPECT JUST
SCATTERED CUMULUS. THE CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT FOG APPEARED LOW
BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR MASS.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KFFC 030930 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH GEORGIA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY. THE 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CURRENTLY BACK ACROSS TEXAS NUDGES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE AREA
WIDE...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL GA WHERE
TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S. TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTH WILL BE SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED NOT ONLY BY ELEVATION BUT ALSO
BY INCREASING CLOUDS DUE TO SEVERAL APPROACHING NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVES. THE SUBSIDENT INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WANES BY
SUNDAY AS A LOW MOVES INTO KY/TN...SENDING A COLD FRONT INTO GA.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED AROUND 30-40 KT
AND CAPES INCREASE TO 1000-2000 J/KG. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS
GREATEST ACROSS NORTH GA...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD FRONT.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THAT FRONT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS FINALLY STALLING IT
EITHER ALONG THE GA/FL BORDER /AS PER THE ECMWF/ OR OVER SOUTH GA
/GFS/ BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK. MID/LATE NEXT WEEK MORE UNCERTAIN AS
PRECIP CHANCES HINGE ON STRENGTH OF A GREAT LAKES TO MID-ATLANTIC
HIGH AND EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH...THUS KEPT
SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS IN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
RRH
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH PERHAPS FEW-SCT CLOUDS DEVELOPING 6-8KFT
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WEAK
FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
NORTHWEST INCREASING 5-10KT THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERALLY BACK BELOW
5KT TONIGHT.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 92 64 92 68 93 / 0 0 5 10 40
ATLANTA 88 67 91 72 90 / 0 0 5 5 40
BLAIRSVILLE 82 58 85 65 82 / 0 0 10 30 50
CARTERSVILLE 88 57 92 64 90 / 0 0 5 20 50
COLUMBUS 94 67 95 73 94 / 0 0 0 5 30
GAINESVILLE 87 65 90 69 88 / 0 0 10 20 50
MACON 95 64 96 68 97 / 0 0 5 5 30
ROME 91 60 94 67 91 / 0 0 5 30 50
PEACHTREE CITY 89 57 92 64 91 / 0 0 0 5 40
VIDALIA 94 65 96 67 96 / 0 0 5 5 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCHS 030814
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
414 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
STALL NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING FROM THE NORTH FOR THE
TAIL END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOWING UP KCLX/KCAE RADAR IMAGERY
AS A FINE LINE EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY A DEW POINT DELINEATION
BOUNDARY. THIS WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SE INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA TODAY...STALLING LATE AND BECOMING TANGLED UP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. A MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH DEEP
LAYERED W FLOW AND AFTERNOON SURFACE DEW POINTS DIPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S MANY INLAND AREAS. DESPITE THE FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION...THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF CONVERGENCE TO BREAK A DECENT
MID LEVEL CAP AND 1000MB-500MB RH BELOW 45 PERCENT AND DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT WERE ENOUGH REASONS TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST.
OF COURSE WE CANNOT RULE OUT A LATE DAY ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE QUITE CLOSE TO THE COAST...BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE SEA BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH I-95 IN SE
GEORGIA PRIOR TO DUSK AND ONLY SLOW ADVANCEMENT TO THE N AROUND
CHARLESTON AS MEAN FLOW IS MUCH WEAKER TODAY. NO CHANGE TO VERY
WARM MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S SE SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOLID MID 90S
OVER SE GEORGIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE WRF MODEL SUGGESTS A BIT OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS COULD SURGE
OFF THE ATLC INTO EXTREME COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING
BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE AND ON THE NE SIDE OF A WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRES REFLECTION OVER THE GEORGIA INTERSTATE CORRIDOR. WE
HAVE NOT ADDED ANY POP HIGHER THAN 10 PERCENT BUT WOULD NOT
BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A STRAY STORM SOMEWHERE ALONG COASTAL
CHARLESTON COUNTY DURING THE EVENING. THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BECOME ILL DEFINED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. A BIT OF LATE NIGHT PTCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE
U.S. 17 CORRIDOR BUT AGAIN POTENTIAL IS NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN TEXT OR GRIDDED PRODUCTS AT THIS POINT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM A FEW MID 60S WELL INLAND IN LOWER/MID 70S RIGHT
ON THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
SOLUTIONS THEN DIVERGING BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. GIVEN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
FRONTAL TIMING AND PROGRESSION THROUGH THE REGION...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
WEAK ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVER
THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE CANADIAN IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS...WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY TAKING THE COLD
FRONT EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND
SUGGESTS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...THEN
DISSIPATES FOR THE TAIL END OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A
GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND MORE PROGRESSIVE CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS...SO WILL LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARD THIS SOLUTION WITH THE
MORNING PACKAGE.
AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT GIVEN SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRAVERSING THE REGION AND MID TO UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS PUSHING
INLAND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. RAINFALL COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LOW TO MENTION
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
PRIMARILY ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ZONES. ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY SATURDAY
EVENING...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.
DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PROHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY...SO HAVE SCALED BACK POPS
ACCORDINGLY. BELIEVE BETTER PROBABILITIES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT WHEN SOME BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
INCREASE POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE/LOW END LIKELY RANGE ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN GOES DOWNHILL QUICKLY TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LACK OF ANY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON OVERALL
PATTERN EVOLUTION. WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A DECREASING TREND IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BECOME
MORE DOMINANT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THEN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGY MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE DURING THE 06Z TAF CYCLE AT
BOTH KSAV AND KCHS. LIGHT AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN BUT
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS LOW. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY
INVOF EITHER AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN STRONG CAP
AND POOR MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR UPDRAFTS. SEA BREEZE WILL BE
MORE PINNED IN CHATHAM COUNTY THAN IN CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT BOTH TERMINALS CAN EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND
RELATIVELY LATE SEA BREEZE PASSAGES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
THERE IS STILL SOME JETTING LIKELY OCCURRING OVER OUR GEORGIA
WATERS BUT WRF FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 925 MB FLOW SUGGEST WE
CAN LOWER OUR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING. 15-20
KT FLOW FROM THE WSW WILL COME DOWN LATER THIS MORNING AROUND
GRAYS REEF SEAWARD AND SEAS WILL ALSO DIMINISH FROM 3-5 FT
TO 2-3 FT. OTHERWISE LIGHTER FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE SEA BREEZE
OVER INTRACOAST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ON TAP TONIGHT WITH SEAS MAINLY BELOW 2-3 FT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER
THE WATERS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT THEN
BEGINNING TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. EXPECT A
FAIRLY GOOD NOCTURNAL SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
JRJ
000
FXUS62 KFFC 030755
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
355 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH GEORGIA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY. THE 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CURRENTLY BACK ACROSS TEXAS NUDGES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE AREA
WIDE...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL GA WHERE
TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S. TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTH WILL BE SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED NOT ONLY BY ELEVATION BUT ALSO
BY INCREASING CLOUDS DUE TO SEVERAL APPROACHING NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVES. THE SUBSIDENT INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WANES BY
SUNDAY AS A LOW MOVES INTO KY/TN...SENDING A COLD FRONT INTO GA.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED AROUND 30-40 KT
AND CAPES INCREASE TO 1000-2000 J/KG. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS
GREATEST ACROSS NORTH GA...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COLD FRONT.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THAT FRONT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS FINALLY STALLING IT
EITHER ALONG THE GA/FL BORDER /AS PER THE ECMWF/ OR OVER SOUTH GA
/GFS/ BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK. MID/LATE NEXT WEEK MORE UNCERTAIN AS
PRECIP CHANCES HINGE ON STRENGTH OF A GREAT LAKES TO MID-ATLANTIC
HIGH AND EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR SOUTH...THUS KEPT
SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS IN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
RRH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 92 64 92 68 93 / 0 0 5 10 40
ATLANTA 88 67 91 72 90 / 0 0 5 5 40
BLAIRSVILLE 82 58 85 65 82 / 0 0 10 30 50
CARTERSVILLE 88 57 92 64 90 / 0 0 5 20 50
COLUMBUS 94 67 95 73 94 / 0 0 0 5 30
GAINESVILLE 87 65 90 69 88 / 0 0 10 20 50
MACON 95 64 96 68 97 / 0 0 5 5 30
ROME 91 60 94 67 91 / 0 0 5 30 50
PEACHTREE CITY 89 57 92 64 91 / 0 0 0 5 40
VIDALIA 94 65 96 67 96 / 0 0 5 5 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCAE 030708
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
308 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...
MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. ANOTHER FRONT AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING
HOURS. A FEW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT MOISTURE IS RATHER
LIMITED SO SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. FRONT SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE
OBSERVED YESTERDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BEGIN TO RISE BACK TO MORE
NORMAL READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES SLOWLY BEGINS TO MOVE OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY WITH A GENERAL WNW FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTING OVER OUR AREA. OLD FRONT REMAINS OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. MOISTURE INCREASES BY SATURDAY BUT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE RATHER LOW SO PLAN TO KEEP OVERALL
FORECAST DRY. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. BY SUNDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW CHANCE POP. MAX TEMPS AGAIN
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
UPPER TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID- ATLANTIC
STATES WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OH VALLEY. SREF POPS INDICATING A HIGH
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY MONDAY. GFS KEEPS FRONT
IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATE INTO MID-WEEK BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE
REDEVELOPS ACROS THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY. OVERALL WILL GO WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS MONDAY...AND DECREASING TO 20-30 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FORECAST TEMPS GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE AND MIXING SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
FURTHER DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCAE 030537
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
137 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...
MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. ANOTHER FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM
SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED BECAUSE OF THE COMBINATION OF
LITTLE MOISTURE AND DIURNAL COOLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED...WITH UPPER RIDGE TO
OUR WEST AND UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE US EAST COAST. EXPECT CONTINUED
DRY AND CAPPED CONDITIONS FOR OUR FA FRIDAY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT.
SOME UPPER IMPULSES IN A NW UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
SOME INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...TO AFFECT US BY LATE
SATURDAY. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION BY SAT AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. UPPER RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT WEST SOME...WHILE UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS A LITTLE OVER THE SE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO OUR REGION AND POSSIBLY
STALL OR ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH...AS A SERIES OF UPPER
IMPULSES/SURFACE WAVES MOVE BY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THE BOUNDARY AND BEST MOISTURE COULD SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR REGION
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE AND MIXING SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
FURTHER DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
000
FXUS62 KCHS 030536
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
136 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
FRIDAY...THEN WILL LINGER NEAR THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MID-EVENING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT BISECTS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH DEWPOINTS
RAPIDLY DROPPING OFF INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS TONIGHT BUT CURRENT MODEL PROGS SUGGEST THE
BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE JUST INLAND FROM THE BEACHES BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WHICH HELPED SPARK A QLCS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA EARLIER IS RAPIDLY SHEARING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST PER WATER VAPOR TRENDS WITH WEAK NVA NOTED IN ITS
WAKE. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS REMAIN ELEVATED AT THE COAST...SUSPECT
THE WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION INDUCED BY THE NVA ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
FAR INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S/ NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES. CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BY 1-2 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
PUSHED S/E OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...AS DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SE GA...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ENVIRONMENT TOO DRY TO
JUSTIFY POPS OVER 15 PERCENT/ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE
COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN GA AREAS COMBINED WITH
A LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE COULD SPUR ISOLATED STORMS. THUS INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE GA COAST. ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE SAT INTO SUN WHILE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TO THE EAST. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
DRIFT BACK NORTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING
BACK INTO THE 70S. FROM SUN THROUGH WED...THE FRONT WILL OSCILLATE
NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL SC DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY CONVECTION. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH WITH DEEP
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A WETTER PATTERN. MAINTAINED 30-40
POPS DURING THE DAY WITH 15-20 POPS DURING THE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS OF LOWER 90S WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE AS THE RESULT OF LOWER
THICKNESSES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A RETURN TO AN UPPER RIDGE
PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH THE FRONT OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS COULD
OCCUR AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR AS LATE AS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE DURING THE 06Z TAF CYCLE AT
BOTH KSAV AND KCHS. LIGHT AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN BUT
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS LOW. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY
INVOF EITHER AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN STRONG CAP
AND POOR MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR UPDRAFTS. SEA BREEZE WILL BE
MORE PINNED IN CHATHAM COUNTY THAN IN CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT BOTH TERMINALS CAN EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND
RELATIVELY LATE SEA BREEZE PASSAGES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
SAT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE MARINE FORECAST TONIGHT. DO
PLAN ON PULLING BACK THE ENDING TIME FOR THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
BY SEVERAL HOURS PER CURRENT MODEL TRENDS. STILL LOOKS LIKE WINDS
WILL PEAK 15-20 KT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 20-25 KT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE LEG.
THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WATERS AND WILL
WEAKEN FRIDAY. N/NE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SURGE TO 10-15 KNOTS ACROSS
NORTHERN WATERS FRIDAY MORNING...THEN THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
SHOULD DOMINATE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BEFORE
S/SW WINDS SURGE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...IN GENERAL THE WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN A RELAXED PRESSURE PATTERN/MORE TRANQUIL REGIME ACROSS
COASTAL WATERS...WITH WINDS/SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
MUCH OF FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL SEAS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE THE MAIN FEATURE. LOW-LEVEL JETTING AHEAD OF A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
AROUND 15 KT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 15 TO 20 KT OVER OFFSHORE
WATERS. SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AT TIMES.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR...MAINLY DUE TO WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ374.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KFFC 030146 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
945 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.UPDATE...
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE
CWA. VDI IS THE ONLY HOLDOUT WITH A 70 DEWPOINT...WITH DEWPOINTS AS
LOW AS THE 50S ACROSS N GA. FORECAST MIN TEMPS TONIGHT LOOK A LITTLE
COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT IN MOST PLACES ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER THAN OBSERVED THIS MORNING. WITH AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES LOWER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...WILL NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS
AT THIS TIME. NIL POPS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. SHRA/TSRA HAVE
REMAINED SOUTH OF OUR CWA BORDER. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
ZONES AT THIS TIME.
LOOKING AHEAD...DEEP UPPER TROUGH NE U.S. WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT
FRI...PUTTING THE SOUTHERN U.S. IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE WNW-NW FLOW SAT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FOR SUN WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING FROM THE
ARKLATEX REGION TOWARD THE SE U.S. AND AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. SPC ALREADY HAS N GA OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE SUN. MON SHOULD
STILL BE AN ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH PART OF THE CWA. A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. BY
MID-WEEK AND EXTENDED MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BUILDING THIS RIDGE
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN 2/3RD OF THE U.S. BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE CENTER DRIFTING INTO THE EASTERN TN VALLEY.
CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AND TEMPS WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY. IF THE
PATTERN ADVERTISED VERIFIES...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME NEAR
100-DEGREE TEMPS BY AROUND JULY 10TH OR SO.
19
&&
.PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 530 PM EDT...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE CWA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A SLIGHTLY
COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY THE H5 LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST BEGINS
LIFTING WHICH WILL START A MODERATING TREND FOR THE CWA FOR THE REST
OF THE SHORT TERM. SEVERAL RIPPLES IN THE H5 FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
MOISTURE AS THE SURFACE RETURN FLOW DOES NOT KICK IN UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER GFS DOES INDICATE MOISTURE ABOVE H8. WITH A
STRONG H5 SHORT WAVE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A CLAP OF THUNDER BUT AT THIS POINT DO
NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN INTERESTING DAY WITH A STRONG H5
SHORT WAVE...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...AND HIGH CAPES. A SERIES OF H5
SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
KEEPING A CHANCE OF TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS BUILDING EASTWARD FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THIS WILL LESSEN THE CHANCES OF
PRECIP AFTER WEDNESDAY.
17
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH GEORGIA CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD. ANY CONVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SCT 060-070 WILL BECOME FEW 060-070 OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRI
AM. SCT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN 18Z FRI. NW WINDS AT 9-10 KTS
WILL BECOME NNW AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT...THEN RETURN TO NW AROUND
10 KTS BY 17Z.
31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 65 91 66 92 68 / 0 0 0 20 30
ATLANTA 66 89 69 91 71 / 0 0 0 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 59 83 60 83 67 / 0 0 0 30 40
CARTERSVILLE 61 89 61 90 66 / 0 0 0 20 30
COLUMBUS 70 93 67 94 74 / 0 0 0 20 20
GAINESVILLE 64 88 66 89 68 / 0 0 0 20 30
MACON 66 94 66 97 70 / 0 0 0 20 20
ROME 61 90 62 92 70 / 0 0 0 20 30
PEACHTREE CITY 63 90 63 92 66 / 0 0 0 20 20
VIDALIA 74 94 71 97 71 / 0 0 0 10 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
17/31/19
000
FXUS62 KCAE 030124 AAA
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
924 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL COME THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...MAINTAINING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM SUNDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT AND POOLING DEWPOINTS JUST
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR AROUND THE CHARLOTTE AREA. WILL UPDATE
FORECAST TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE SHOWERS. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE INTO A DRIER AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST WITHIN A FEW HOURS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO
BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED...WITH UPPER RIDGE TO
OUR WEST AND UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE US EAST COAST. EXPECT CONTINUED
DRY AND CAPPED CONDITIONS FOR OUR FA FRIDAY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT.
SOME UPPER IMPULSES IN A NW UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
SOME INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...TO AFFECT US BY LATE
SATURDAY. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION BY SAT AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. UPPER RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT WEST SOME...WHILE UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS A LITTLE OVER THE SE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO OUR REGION AND POSSIBLY
STALL OR ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH...AS A SERIES OF UPPER
IMPULSES/SURFACE WAVES MOVE BY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THE BOUNDARY AND BEST MOISTURE COULD SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR REGION
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EAST OF THE AREA ALONG THE COAST. DRIER
AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA/CSRA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS RELAXING SO EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE EVENING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AFTER 03Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE NO FOG TONIGHT DUE TO DRY
AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCHS 030110
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
910 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
FRIDAY...THEN WILL LINGER NEAR THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MID-EVENING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT BISECTS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH DEWPOINTS
RAPIDLY DROPPING OFF INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS TONIGHT BUT CURRENT MODEL PROGS SUGGEST THE
BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE JUST INLAND FROM THE BEACHES BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE WHICH HELPED SPARK A QLCS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA EARLIER IS RAPIDLY SHEARING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST PER WATER VAPOR TRENDS WITH WEAK NVA NOTED IN ITS
WAKE. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS REMAIN ELEVATED AT THE COAST...SUSPECT
THE WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION INDUCED BY THE NVA ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
FAR INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S/ NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES. CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BY 1-2 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
PUSHED S/E OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...AS DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SE GA...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ENVIRONMENT TOO DRY TO
JUSTIFY POPS OVER 15 PERCENT/ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE
COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN GA AREAS COMBINED WITH
A LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE COULD SPUR ISOLATED STORMS. THUS INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE GA COAST. ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE SAT INTO SUN WHILE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TO THE EAST. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
DRIFT BACK NORTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING
BACK INTO THE 70S. FROM SUN THROUGH WED...THE FRONT WILL OSCILLATE
NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL SC DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY CONVECTION. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH WITH DEEP
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A WETTER PATTERN. MAINTAINED 30-40
POPS DURING THE DAY WITH 15-20 POPS DURING THE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS OF LOWER 90S WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE AS THE RESULT OF LOWER
THICKNESSES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A RETURN TO AN UPPER RIDGE
PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH THE FRONT OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS COULD
OCCUR AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR AS LATE AS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA. EXPECT SKIES TO BE CLEARING LATER TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AT BOTH TERMINALS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE WITH LEFT OVER
MOISTURE FROM THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY AT KSAV. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE
FOG TO BE VERY LIGHT AND PATCHY THUS DID NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE MARINE FORECAST TONIGHT. DO
PLAN ON PULLING BACK THE ENDING TIME FOR THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
BY SEVERAL HOURS PER CURRENT MODEL TRENDS. STILL LOOKS LIKE WINDS
WILL PEAK 15-20 KT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 20-25 KT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE LEG.
THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WATERS AND WILL
WEAKEN FRIDAY. N/NE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SURGE TO 10-15 KNOTS ACROSS
NORTHERN WATERS FRIDAY MORNING...THEN THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
SHOULD DOMINATE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BEFORE
S/SW WINDS SURGE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...IN GENERAL THE WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN A RELAXED PRESSURE PATTERN/MORE TRANQUIL REGIME ACROSS
COASTAL WATERS...WITH WINDS/SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
MUCH OF FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL SEAS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE THE MAIN FEATURE. LOW-LEVEL JETTING AHEAD OF A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
AROUND 15 KT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 15 TO 20 KT OVER OFFSHORE
WATERS. SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AT TIMES.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR...MAINLY DUE TO WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCHS 022341
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
741 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
FRIDAY...THEN WILL LINGER NEAR THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITES SHOWS TSTMS HAVE ORGANIZED INTO A WELL
DEFINED QLCS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THESE STORMS
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WITH ONLY THE FAR NORTHERN
FRINGES POSSIBLY BRUSHING PARTS OF MCINTOSH...LONG AND LIBERTY
COUNTIES. HAVE UPDATED OUR GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS TO LOWER POPS
SLIGHTLY AND TO REMOVE MENTION OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ALTHOUGH ELEVATED DCAPES AROUND 1400 J/KG SUGGEST A SEVERE TSTM
COULD STILL FIRE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...THE RISK APPEARS
VERY LIMITED ATTM. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND KCLX REFLECTIVITY
PRODUCTS SHOW THE SEA BREEZE HAS BECOME STATIONARY FROM BEAUFORT
NORTH THROUGH SUMMERVILLE AND SHULERVILLE. COULD STILL SEE AN
ISOLATED TSTM FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THESE AREAS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED...ALTHOUGH IT
DOES APPEAR MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
PUSHED S/E OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...AS DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SE GA...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ENVIRONMENT TOO DRY TO
JUSTIFY POPS OVER 15 PERCENT/ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE
COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN GA AREAS COMBINED WITH
A LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE COULD SPUR ISOLATED STORMS. THUS INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE GA COAST. ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE SAT INTO SUN WHILE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TO THE EAST. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
DRIFT BACK NORTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING
BACK INTO THE 70S. FROM SUN THROUGH WED...THE FRONT WILL OSCILLATE
NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL SC DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY CONVECTION. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH WITH DEEP
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A WETTER PATTERN. MAINTAINED 30-40
POPS DURING THE DAY WITH 15-20 POPS DURING THE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS OF LOWER 90S WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE AS THE RESULT OF LOWER
THICKNESSES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A RETURN TO AN UPPER RIDGE
PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH THE FRONT OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS COULD
OCCUR AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR AS LATE AS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA. EXPECT SKIES TO BE CLEARING LATER TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AT BOTH TERMINALS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE WITH LEFT OVER
MOISTURE FROM THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY AT KSAV. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE
FOG TO BE VERY LIGHT AND PATCHY THUS DID NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...S/SW WINDS SHOULD SURGE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS...20-25 KNOTS WILL SEAS APPROACHING 5-6
FT...BEYOND 20 NM. WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST...OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS S/SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KNOTS THIS
EVENING...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE W/NW AND WILL DIMINISH
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SINCE
12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THAT THE FOCUS FOR STRONGEST
W/SW WINDS WILL SHIFT E/SE AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...AND SINCE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY ALTER THE PRESSURE PATTERN/WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...OPTED NOT TO RAISE NEW SCA FOR
NEARSHORE WATERS FOR TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WATERS AND WILL WEAKEN
FRIDAY. N/NE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SURGE TO 10-15 KNOTS ACROSS
NORTHERN WATERS FRIDAY MORNING...THEN THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
SHOULD DOMINATE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BEFORE
S/SW WINDS SURGE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...IN GENERAL THE WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN A RELAXED PRESSURE PATTERN/MORE TRANQUIL REGIME ACROSS
COASTAL WATERS...WITH WINDS/SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
MUCH OF FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL SEAS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE THE MAIN FEATURE. LOW-LEVEL JETTING AHEAD OF A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
AROUND 15 KT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 15 TO 20 KT OVER OFFSHORE
WATERS. SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AT TIMES.
AFTERNOON SEABREEZES COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR...MAINLY DUE TO WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCAE 022325
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
725 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL COME THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...MAINTAINING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM SUNDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SC
COAST AND ACROSS S GA. NORTH OF THAT BOUNDARY...OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA (FA)...LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY AND
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE PREVENTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THERE APPEARS
TO BE ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH...STRETCHING THE
MOUNTAINS OF VA/NC WEST ACROSS KY/TN. VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING AN
UPPER IMPULSE MOVING SE ACROSS E TENN. THE PATH OF THIS IMPULSE
SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND ANY CONVECTION
THAT FORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY/MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR
NORTH. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR FA LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED...WITH UPPER RIDGE TO
OUR WEST AND UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE US EAST COAST. EXPECT CONTINUED
DRY AND CAPPED CONDITIONS FOR OUR FA FRIDAY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT.
SOME UPPER IMPULSES IN A NW UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
SOME INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...TO AFFECT US BY LATE
SATURDAY. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION BY SAT AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. UPPER RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT WEST SOME...WHILE UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS A LITTLE OVER THE SE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO OUR REGION AND POSSIBLY
STALL OR ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH...AS A SERIES OF UPPER
IMPULSES/SURFACE WAVES MOVE BY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THE BOUNDARY AND BEST MOISTURE COULD SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR REGION
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EAST OF THE AREA ALONG THE COAST. DRIER
AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA/CSRA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS RELAXING SO EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE EVENING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AFTER 03Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE NO FOG TONIGHT DUE TO DRY
AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCHS 022208
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
608 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
FRIDAY...THEN WILL LINGER NEAR THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITES SHOWS TSTMS HAVE ORGANIZED INTO A WELL
DEFINED QLCS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THESE STORMS
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WITH ONLY THE FAR NORTHERN
FRINGES POSSIBLY BRUSHING PARTS OF MCINTOSH...LONG AND LIBERTY
COUNTIES. HAVE UPDATED OUR GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS TO LOWER POPS
SLIGHTLY AND TO REMOVE MENTION OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ALTHOUGH ELEVATED DCAPES AROUND 1400 J/KG SUGGEST A SEVERE TSTM
COULD STILL FIRE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...THE RISK APPEARS
VERY LIMITED ATTM. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND KCLX REFLECTIVITY
PRODUCTS SHOW THE SEA BREEZE HAS BECOME STATIONARY FROM BEAUFORT
NORTH THROUGH SUMMERVILLE AND SHULERVILLE. COULD STILL SEE AN
ISOLATED TSTM FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THESE AREAS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED...ALTHOUGH IT
DOES APPEAR MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
PUSHED S/E OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...AS DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SE GA...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ENVIRONMENT TOO DRY TO
JUSTIFY POPS OVER 15 PERCENT/ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE
COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN GA AREAS COMBINED WITH
A LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE COULD SPUR ISOLATED STORMS. THUS INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE GA COAST. ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE SAT INTO SUN WHILE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TO THE EAST. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
DRIFT BACK NORTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING
BACK INTO THE 70S. FROM SUN THROUGH WED...THE FRONT WILL OSCILLATE
NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL SC DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY CONVECTION. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH WITH DEEP
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A WETTER PATTERN. MAINTAINED 30-40
POPS DURING THE DAY WITH 15-20 POPS DURING THE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS OF LOWER 90S WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE AS THE RESULT OF LOWER
THICKNESSES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A RETURN TO AN UPPER RIDGE
PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH THE FRONT OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS COULD
OCCUR AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR AS LATE AS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS FOR KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A DEWPOINT BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE ARE
MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT KSAV INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP NEAR THE SEA BREEZE IN THE KCHS
VICINITY. WILL AMEND TAFS AS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR NEAR TERM
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. THEN...GUIDANCE HINTS AT MVFR FOG AFTER 10Z
FOR BOTH SITES...AND WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IF RAIN
OCCURS THIS EVENING. YET...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN PATCHY
DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER N/NE FRIDAY UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. ANY PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON APPEAR
LOW AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...S/SW WINDS SHOULD SURGE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS...20-25 KNOTS WILL SEAS APPROACHING 5-6
FT...BEYOND 20 NM. WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST...OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS S/SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KNOTS THIS
EVENING...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE W/NW AND WILL DIMINISH
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SINCE
12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THAT THE FOCUS FOR STRONGEST
W/SW WINDS WILL SHIFT E/SE AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...AND SINCE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY ALTER THE PRESSURE PATTERN/WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...OPTED NOT TO RAISE NEW SCA FOR
NEARSHORE WATERS FOR TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WATERS AND WILL WEAKEN
FRIDAY. N/NE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SURGE TO 10-15 KNOTS ACROSS
NORTHERN WATERS FRIDAY MORNING...THEN THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
SHOULD DOMINATE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BEFORE
S/SW WINDS SURGE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...IN GENERAL THE WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN A RELAXED PRESSURE PATTERN/MORE TRANQUIL REGIME ACROSS
COASTAL WATERS...WITH WINDS/SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
MUCH OF FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL SEAS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE THE MAIN FEATURE. LOW-LEVEL JETTING AHEAD OF A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
AROUND 15 KT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 15 TO 20 KT OVER OFFSHORE
WATERS. SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AT TIMES.
AFTERNOON SEABREEZES COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR...MAINLY DUE TO WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KFFC 022137 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
537 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE CWA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A SLIGHTLY
COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY THE H5 LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST BEGINS
LIFTING WHICH WILL START A MODERATING TREND FOR THE CWA FOR THE REST
OF THE SHORT TERM. SEVERAL RIPPLES IN THE H5 FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
MOISTURE AS THE SURFACE RETURN FLOW DOES NOT KICK IN UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER GFS DOES INDICATE MOISTURE ABOVE H8. WITH A
STRONG H5 SHORT WAVE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A CLAP OF THUNDER BUT AT THIS POINT DO
NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN INTERESTING DAY WITH A STRONG H5
SHORT WAVE...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...AND HIGH CAPES. A SERIES OF H5
SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
KEEPING A CHANCE OF TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS BUILDING EASTWARD FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THIS WILL LESSEN THE CHANCES OF
PRECIP AFTER WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH GEORGIA CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD. ANY CONVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SCT 060-070 WILL BECOME FEW 060-070 OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRI
AM. SCT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN 18Z FRI. NW WINDS AT 9-10 KTS
WILL BECOME NNW AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT...THEN RETURN TO NW AROUND
10 KTS BY 17Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 65 91 66 92 68 / 0 0 0 20 30
ATLANTA 66 89 69 91 71 / 0 0 0 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 59 83 60 83 67 / 0 0 0 30 40
CARTERSVILLE 61 89 61 90 66 / 0 0 0 20 30
COLUMBUS 70 93 67 94 74 / 0 0 0 20 20
GAINESVILLE 64 88 66 89 68 / 0 0 0 20 30
MACON 66 94 66 97 70 / 0 0 0 20 20
ROME 61 90 62 92 70 / 0 0 0 20 30
PEACHTREE CITY 63 90 63 92 66 / 0 0 0 20 20
VIDALIA 74 94 71 97 71 / 0 0 0 10 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
17/31
000
FXUS62 KCHS 021942
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
342 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
FRIDAY...THEN WILL LINGER NEAR THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...EXTENDING FROM INLAND SECTIONS
OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION W/SW ACROSS AREAS JUST NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 16. FURTHER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED THE SEA BREEZE ATTEMPTING TO PUSH
INLAND FROM THE COAST...WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED AN
ELONGATED/POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE ADVANCING INTO W/SW GA AND
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THUNDERSTORMS HAD
ERUPTED WITHIN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY/CLOSE TO THE SHORTWAVE.
INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE SHORTWAVE ADVANCES E MULTICELL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT AREAS AHEAD OF THE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY
AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE SEA BREEZE. SBCAPES STARTING IN THE
3000-4000 J/KG RANGE...DOWNDRAFT CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND MID
LEVEL DRY AIR/WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS 11.5-12.5 KFT WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND
LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ENHANCE DEEP
MOIST UPDRAFTS. ADDED A MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO PUBLIC
PRODUCTS UNTIL 10 PM...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE SCENARIO COVERED
WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
WITH STABILIZATION DUE TO DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND
PRECIPITATION...COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WANE BY
LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PERSIST AHEAD OF THE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES/COASTAL WATERS WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS...LOCAL STRATUS/FOG COULD DEVELOP AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
FAVORED AREAS BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION EVENT UNFOLDS...THUS WILL
NOT MENTION ANY FOG WITHIN FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE FROM THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO
75-80F AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
PUSHED S/E OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...AS DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SE GA...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ENVIRONMENT TOO DRY TO
JUSTIFY POPS OVER 15 PERCENT/ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE
COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN GA AREAS COMBINED WITH
A LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE COULD SPUR ISOLATED STORMS. THUS INCLUDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE GA COAST. ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN LATE SAT INTO SUN WHILE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TO THE EAST. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
DRIFT BACK NORTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING
BACK INTO THE 70S. FROM SUN THROUGH WED...THE FRONT WILL OSCILLATE
NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL SC DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY CONVECTION. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH WITH DEEP
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A WETTER PATTERN. MAINTAINED 30-40
POPS DURING THE DAY WITH 15-20 POPS DURING THE NIGHT. SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS OF LOWER 90S WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE AS THE RESULT OF LOWER
THICKNESSES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A RETURN TO AN UPPER RIDGE
PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH THE FRONT OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS COULD
OCCUR AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR AS LATE AS THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS FOR KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A DEWPOINT BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE ARE
MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT KSAV INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP NEAR THE SEA BREEZE IN THE KCHS
VICINITY. WILL AMEND TAFS AS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR NEAR TERM
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. THEN...GUIDANCE HINTS AT MVFR FOG AFTER 10Z
FOR BOTH SITES...AND WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IF RAIN
OCCURS THIS EVENING. YET...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN PATCHY
DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER N/NE FRIDAY UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. ANY PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON APPEAR
LOW AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...S/SW WINDS SHOULD SURGE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS...20-25 KNOTS WILL SEAS APPROACHING 5-6
FT...BEYOND 20 NM. WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST...OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS S/SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KNOTS THIS
EVENING...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE W/NW AND WILL DIMINISH
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SINCE
12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGESTS THAT THE FOCUS FOR STRONGEST
W/SW WINDS WILL SHIFT E/SE AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...AND SINCE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD GREATLY ALTER THE PRESSURE PATTERN/WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...OPTED NOT TO RAISE NEW SCA FOR
NEARSHORE WATERS FOR TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WATERS AND WILL WEAKEN
FRIDAY. N/NE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SURGE TO 10-15 KNOTS ACROSS
NORTHERN WATERS FRIDAY MORNING...THEN THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
SHOULD DOMINATE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BEFORE
S/SW WINDS SURGE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...IN GENERAL THE WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN A RELAXED PRESSURE PATTERN/MORE TRANQUIL REGIME ACROSS
COASTAL WATERS...WITH WINDS/SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
MUCH OF FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL SEAS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH AN
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE THE MAIN FEATURE. LOW-LEVEL JETTING AHEAD OF A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
AROUND 15 KT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 15 TO 20 KT OVER OFFSHORE
WATERS. SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AT TIMES.
AFTERNOON SEABREEZES COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR...MAINLY DUE TO WIND GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCAE 021855
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL COME THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...MAINTAINING DRY
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM SUNDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SC
COAST AND ACROSS S GA. NORTH OF THAT BOUNDARY...OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA (FA)...LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY AND
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE PREVENTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THERE APPEARS
TO BE ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH...STRETCHING THE
MOUNTAINS OF VA/NC WEST ACROSS KY/TN. VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING AN
UPPER IMPULSE MOVING SE ACROSS E TENN. THE PATH OF THIS IMPULSE
SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND ANY CONVECTION
THAT FORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY/MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN JUST TO OUR
NORTH. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR FA LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED...WITH UPPER RIDGE TO
OUR WEST AND UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE US EAST COAST. EXPECT CONTINUED
DRY AND CAPPED CONDITIONS FOR OUR FA FRIDAY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT.
SOME UPPER IMPULSES IN A NW UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
SOME INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...TO AFFECT US BY LATE
SATURDAY. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION BY SAT AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. UPPER RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT WEST SOME...WHILE UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS A LITTLE OVER THE SE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO OUR REGION AND POSSIBLY
STALL OR ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH...AS A SERIES OF UPPER
IMPULSES/SURFACE WAVES MOVE BY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THE BOUNDARY AND BEST MOISTURE COULD SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR REGION
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 04Z-06Z
TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE FRONT AND DRY AIR WILL
KEEP WINDS UP TO 6-10 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD AND SHOULD KEEP
ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALSO...SURFACE
WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON 18Z-00Z. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DCM
AVIATION...TTH
000
FXUS62 KFFC 021807
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
207 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE CWA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A SLIGHTLY
COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY THE H5 LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST BEGINS
LIFTING WHICH WILL START A MODERATING TREND FOR THE CWA FOR THE REST
OF THE SHORT TERM. SEVERAL RIPPLES IN THE H5 FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
MOISTURE AS THE SURFACE RETURN FLOW DOES NOT KICK IN UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER GFS DOES INDICATE MOISTURE ABOVE H8. WITH A
STRONG H5 SHORT WAVE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A CLAP OF THUNDER BUT AT THIS POINT DO
NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN INTERESTING DAY WITH A STRONG H5
SHORT WAVE...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...AND HIGH CAPES. A SERIES OF H5
SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
KEEPING A CHANCE OF TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS BUILDING EASTWARD FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THIS WILL LESSEN THE CHANCES OF
PRECIP AFTER WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 65 91 66 92 68 / 0 0 0 20 30
ATLANTA 66 89 69 91 71 / 0 0 0 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 59 83 60 83 67 / 0 0 0 30 40
CARTERSVILLE 61 89 61 90 66 / 0 0 0 20 30
COLUMBUS 70 93 67 94 74 / 0 0 0 20 20
GAINESVILLE 64 88 66 89 68 / 0 0 0 20 30
MACON 66 94 66 97 70 / 0 0 0 20 20
ROME 61 90 62 92 70 / 0 0 0 20 30
PEACHTREE CITY 63 90 63 92 66 / 0 0 0 20 20
VIDALIA 74 94 71 97 71 / 0 0 0 10 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
17
000
FXUS62 KCHS 021743
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
143 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
THEN WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN
LINGER NEAR THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THURSDAY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A DEWPOINT BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED AN ELONGATED/POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AL APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
THESE FEATURES AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL GOVERN WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AS THE SURFACE BASED MIXED LAYER DEEPENS AND TAPS INTO VERY DRY
AIR EVIDENT WITHIN THE 12Z KFFC SOUNDING...INLAND DEWPOINTS SHOULD
FALL THROUGH THE 60S...PERHAPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...SHARPENING THE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL LIKELY STRETCH FROM THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION
W/SW ALONG THE INTERSTATE 16 CORRIDOR IN SE GA BY THAT TIME.
MEANWHILE...DUE TO A 15-25 KNOT OFFSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW WITHIN THE
SURFACE-850 MB LAYER...THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN PINNED TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH MUCH/ALL OF THE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS
SURGING INLAND EARLY THIS EVENING.
12Z SOUNDINGS REVEALED A STRONG CAP OVER THE REGION...EXCEEDING
5C AT KCHS AND KJAX. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE ONSET OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
EVENTUALLY...HEATING AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL WEAKEN THE CAP AND WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE-700 MB DEWPOINTS
GRADIENT...MOST LIKELY ACROSS SE GA TO START. CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT TO THE
COAST...AND A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL PUSH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
INTO COASTAL WATERS.
STRONG INSTABILITY...LOCALLY 3000-4000 J/KG NEAR THE SEA BREEZE...
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 15-20 KNOTS...DRY MID LEVEL AIR/WET BULB HEIGHTS
11.5-12.5 KFT AND DOWNDRAFT CAPES 1000-1500 J/KG SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLATED
DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CAP AND
LATE DAY DEVELOPMENT...LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE ACROSS
S COUNTIES. INLAND BEHIND THE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY/WELL AWAY FROM THE
SEA BREEZE...DO NOT EXPECT DEEP/MOIST CONVECTION TODAY.
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN. MAX TEMPS AWAY FROM THE
COAST WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. NEAR THE COAST...OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND LOWERS TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL RISE INTO THE 100-105F RANGE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE SEA BREEZE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXPAND N/NE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE INTO
COASTAL SC COUNTIES THIS EVENING. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
0Z-6Z FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.
THE DRIER AIR WILL PUSH DEEPER INTO THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVE AS
THE DEWPOINTS BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THOUGH THE
CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT OFFSHORE AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WILL HELP BRING ANY LINGERING SHWRS/TSTMS TO AN END BY
MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP SLGT CHC GOING FOR SRN PORTIONS AND THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVE. EXPECT LOW TEMPS ONCE AGAIN TO
AVERAGE FROM THE UPR 60S AND LWR 70S INLAND TO AROUND 80 AT THE
SHORES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT
OF THE ERN CONUS LATE FRI THROUGH SAT MRNG...GRADUALLY ALLOWING
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE NW. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE QUASI-STATIONARY INLAND FRONT TO MAKE BETTER PROGRESS TO
THE COAST. THAT BEING SAID...MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN AND
WEAK LEE SIDE SFC TROUGHS THAT FORM EACH MORNING AND SHIFTING TO
THE COAST EACH AFTN WILL HAVE LITTLE CHC OF WORKING WITH THE
SEABREEZE TO PRODUCE ANY CONVECTION. CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT...BUT BEST SHOT AGAIN RESIDES OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA
BOTH FRI AND SAT WHERE FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD BE A LITTLE BETTER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SRN PLAINS SUN WILL
OCCUR UNDER A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE ROCKIES AND THIS COMPLEX
SYSTEM WILL SHIFT E THROUGH THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND THE MID ATLC
STATES SUN-WED. DEEPENING MOISTURE...HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS AND
SEVERAL WAVES OF MID LVL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES OF SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION
BUT IT IS SAFE TO SAY A MORE ACTIVE WX PERIOD CAN BE EXPECTED.
HAVE NUDGED POPS INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS WITH 20 PERCENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWER THICKNESS
AND MORE CLOUD/RAIN COMPLICATIONS WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS DOWN TO THE
LWR 90S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS FOR KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT W/SW WINDS...DELAYING SEABREEZE PASSAGE UNTIL AFTER
20-21Z. KEPT A CB GROUP FOR KSAV STARTING AT 21Z AS ISOLATED/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IS
EXPECTED...IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT KSAV WILL BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED...
THUS WILL EXCLUDE ANY MENTION OF TSRA FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. GUIDANCE
HINTS AT MVFR FOG AFTER 10Z FOR BOTH SITES...AND WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. YET...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN PATCHY DUE TO
LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER N/NE FRIDAY UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. ANY PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON APPEAR LOW AT THIS
TIME AND WILL BE REEVALUATED AT THE NEXT TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
SAT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES.
&&
.MARINE...
THE PERSISTENT TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENT AND STRONG HEATING
OVER LAND WILL INCITE ANOTHER ROBUST SEA BREEZE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT WINDS TO RESPOND ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. TONIGHT...MAINTAINED THE ONGOING SCA FOR OUR OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS AS BOTH GFS/WRF SHOW STRONG JETTING/SURGING. THE DIFFERENCE
FOR TONIGHT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE DISPLACED BY A WEAKER GRADIENT JUST AHEAD OF A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SE TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SW FLOW IN THE 15-20 RANGE LATE TODAY
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKER WITHIN 20 NM TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
APPROACHES. THIS TREND MAY BE DELAYED FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING
AROUND GRAYS REEF AS THIS REGION IS FURTHER FROM THE BAGGIER
GRADIENT.
ON FRI...WE TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION OF KEEPING
THE FRONT FROM MAKING WHOLESALE HEADWAY THROUGH OUR WATERS. IT
PROBABLY WILL MAKE IT INTO CHARLESTON COUNTY BUT ANY FURTHER S IS
QUESTIONABLE. THE MAIN FLAVOR OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE A
TREND TOWARD LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS DESPITE SOME VARIABILITY IN
DIRECTIONS AND SEAS MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS.
WINDS AND SEAS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN BY MON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE MID ATLC REGION FROM THE W.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCAE 021721
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
121 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE CAROLINAS. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WHICH SPAWNED A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST TODAY WITH DRIER AIR PERSISTING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY TODAY WITH PWAT VALUES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE ONE
INCH MARK. COMBINE THAT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY
OR TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SITUATION WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO CHANGE AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN
SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BEGINS TO TRACK EASTWARD. ALTHOUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN US WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING
EASTWARD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES CONCERNING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HOWEVER
ALL MODELS AGREE ON THE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF AS THE GFS HAS MADE SOME
LARGE SCALE CHANGES OVER THE PAST RUN WHILE THE ECMWF HAS REMAINED
CONSISTENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE DURING THE LONG TERM...WITH THE GFS
BEING AN OUTLIER AS CHANGES OVER THE PAST RUN ARE SUSPECT. LONG
TERM FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD ECMWF WHICH BRINGS THE BOUNDARY INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND STALLS THE FEATURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE LONG TERM. AS SUCH HAVE INCREASED POPS AND CLOUDS
FOR THE LONG TERM WITH FEW OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 04Z-06Z
TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE FRONT AND DRY AIR WILL
KEEP WINDS UP TO 6-10 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD AND SHOULD KEEP
ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALSO...SURFACE
WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON 18Z-00Z. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...07
000
FXUS62 KCHS 021430
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1030 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
THEN WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN
LINGER NEAR THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THURSDAY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A DEWPOINT BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED AN ELONGATED/POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AL APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
THESE FEATURES AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL GOVERN WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AS THE SURFACE BASED MIXED LAYER DEEPENS AND TAPS INTO VERY DRY
AIR EVIDENT WITHIN THE 12Z KFFC SOUNDING...INLAND DEWPOINTS SHOULD
FALL THROUGH THE 60S...PERHAPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...SHARPENING THE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL LIKELY STRETCH FROM THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION
W/SW ALONG THE INTERSTATE 16 CORRIDOR IN SE GA BY THAT TIME.
MEANWHILE...DUE TO A 15-25 KNOT OFFSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW WITHIN THE
SURFACE-850 MB LAYER...THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL NOT
DEVELOP UNTIL EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN PINNED TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH MUCH/ALL OF THE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS
SURGING INLAND EARLY THIS EVENING.
12Z SOUNDINGS REVEALED A STRONG CAP OVER THE REGION...EXCEEDING
5C AT KCHS AND KJAX. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE ONSET OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
EVENTUALLY...HEATING AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL WEAKEN THE CAP AND WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE-700 MB DEWPOINTS
GRADIENT...MOST LIKELY ACROSS SE GA TO START. CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT TO THE
COAST...AND A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL PUSH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
INTO COASTAL WATERS.
STRONG INSTABILITY...LOCALLY 3000-4000 J/KG NEAR THE SEA BREEZE...
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 15-20 KNOTS...DRY MID LEVEL AIR/WET BULB HEIGHTS
11.5-12.5 KFT AND DOWNDRAFT CAPES 1000-1500 J/KG SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLATED
DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CAP AND
LATE DAY DEVELOPMENT...LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE ACROSS
S COUNTIES. INLAND BEHIND THE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY/WELL AWAY FROM THE
SEA BREEZE...DO NOT EXPECT DEEP/MOIST CONVECTION TODAY.
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN. MAX TEMPS AWAY FROM THE
COAST WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. NEAR THE COAST...OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND LOWERS TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL RISE INTO THE 100-105F RANGE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE SEA BREEZE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXPAND N/NE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE INTO
COASTAL SC COUNTIES THIS EVENING. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
0Z-6Z FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.
THE DRIER AIR WILL PUSH DEEPER INTO THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVE AS
THE DEWPOINTS BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THOUGH THE
CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT OFFSHORE AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WILL HELP BRING ANY LINGERING SHWRS/TSTMS TO AN END BY
MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP SLGT CHC GOING FOR SRN PORTIONS AND THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVE. EXPECT LOW TEMPS ONCE AGAIN TO
AVERAGE FROM THE UPR 60S AND LWR 70S INLAND TO AROUND 80 AT THE
SHORES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT
OF THE ERN CONUS LATE FRI THROUGH SAT MRNG...GRADUALLY ALLOWING
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE NW. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE QUASI-STATIONARY INLAND FRONT TO MAKE BETTER PROGRESS TO
THE COAST. THAT BEING SAID...MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN AND
WEAK LEE SIDE SFC TROUGHS THAT FORM EACH MORNING AND SHIFTING TO
THE COAST EACH AFTN WILL HAVE LITTLE CHC OF WORKING WITH THE
SEABREEZE TO PRODUCE ANY CONVECTION. CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT...BUT BEST SHOT AGAIN RESIDES OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA
BOTH FRI AND SAT WHERE FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD BE A LITTLE BETTER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SRN PLAINS SUN WILL
OCCUR UNDER A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE ROCKIES AND THIS COMPLEX
SYSTEM WILL SHIFT E THROUGH THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND THE MID ATLC
STATES SUN-WED. DEEPENING MOISTURE...HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS AND
SEVERAL WAVES OF MID LVL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES OF SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION
BUT IT IS SAFE TO SAY A MORE ACTIVE WX PERIOD CAN BE EXPECTED.
HAVE NUDGED POPS INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS WITH 20 PERCENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWER THICKNESS
AND MORE CLOUD/RAIN COMPLICATIONS WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS DOWN TO THE
LWR 90S.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH TONIGHT. RISK FOR
CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST FOR MOST
OF THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THUS ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE COASTAL TAF CORRIDOR... BUT PROBABLY TO THE S OF
KSAV. THE LATEST RUC AND LOCAL WRF MODELS SUGGEST MENTIONING A
LATE DAY FEW CB MENTION AT KSAV MAY NOT BE A BAD IDEA AT THIS
JUNCTURE...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE W AND SOME MORNING ACCAS SHOWING UP ON THE
FIRST VSBL SATELLITE IMAGES IN S GEORGIA.
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM NEAR THE TERMINALS 02Z-06Z/03 IN
PROXIMITY TO A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS BISECTING THE SEA
BREEZE/DEW POINT BOUNDARY. AGAIN....VERY SMALL CHANCES. LIGHTER
WINDS AT THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT COULD SPELL SOME LIGHT FOG
NEAR AN APPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGH...NOT ENOUGH SOLID EVIDENCE
FOR MENTIONS IN OUR TAFS AS YET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
SAT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES.
&&
.MARINE...
THE PERSISTENT TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENT AND STRONG HEATING
OVER LAND WILL INCITE ANOTHER ROBUST SEA BREEZE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT WINDS TO RESPOND ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z. TONIGHT...MAINTAINED THE ONGOING SCA FOR OUR OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS AS BOTH GFS/WRF SHOW STRONG JETTING/SURGING. THE DIFFERENCE
FOR TONIGHT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE DISPLACED BY A WEAKER GRADIENT JUST AHEAD OF A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SE TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SW FLOW IN THE 15-20 RANGE LATE TODAY
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKER WITHIN 20 NM TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
APPROACHES. THIS TREND MAY BE DELAYED FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING
AROUND GRAYS REEF AS THIS REGION IS FURTHER FROM THE BAGGIER
GRADIENT.
ON FRI...WE TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION OF KEEPING
THE FRONT FROM MAKING WHOLESALE HEADWAY THROUGH OUR WATERS. IT
PROBABLY WILL MAKE IT INTO CHARLESTON COUNTY BUT ANY FURTHER S IS
QUESTIONABLE. THE MAIN FLAVOR OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE A
TREND TOWARD LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS DESPITE SOME VARIABILITY IN
DIRECTIONS AND SEAS MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS.
WINDS AND SEAS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN BY MON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE MID ATLC REGION FROM THE W.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCHS 021121
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
721 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PERSIST
TODAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...STALLING OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THEN
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN
LINGER NEAR THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH ITS LONGWAVE
TROUGH EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE ERN 1/3 OF THE LOWER 48 WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TDA/ AT THE SFC...ANOTHER DAILY LEE SIDE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TWD THE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT
SLOWLY SAG S FROM THE UPSTATE TWD THE COAST...BUT IT LOOKS TO
REMAIN INLAND THROUGH THE DAY TDA AS THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPETUS TO PUSH IT TO THE COAST. THE AIRMASS REMAINS ON
THE DRY SIDE TDA WITH PWATS LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES. AM HAVING A
HARD TIME DEPICTING WHERE...IF ANY...TSTMS WOULD DEVELOP AS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND NAM MODELS ARE QUITE MEAGER WITH PRECIP.
CAPPING LOOKS STRONGEST OVER THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWFA AND THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWFA SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST PENETRATION OF THE
SEABREEZE. IN ADDITION...INSTABILITY IS A BIT MORE CONCENTRATED S.
AS FAR AS MESOSCALE MODELS...THE WELL-PERFORMING NSSL WRF
HIGHLIGHTS ISOLD CONVECTION MAINLY S OF INTERSTATE 16 SO THIS IS
WHERE SLGT CHC POPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED. BOTH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND NAM ALSO INDICATE A DECENT H5 SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH DUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWFA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS COULD WORK WITH THE
SEABREEZE AND BETTER INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SMALL CHC OF
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS. SPC HIGHLIGHTS MAINLY FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA FOR A 5 PERCENT CHC OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND...SO WILL ADD THIS
MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. BEST TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER
3 PM.
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN. MAX TEMPS AWAY FROM THE
COAST WILL BE IN THE MID 90S...WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING THE UPPER
90S. NEAR THE COAST...MID 80S TO ARND 90 SHOULD BE REACHED. WITH
DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CREEPING BACK TO 70...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE
TO ARND 100 DEGREES FOR MOST SPOTS AWAY FROM THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER SWATH OF DRIER AIR WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THIS
EVE AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THOUGH THE MEANDERING
INLAND FRONT WILL REMAIN W OF THE AREA THIS EVE...AVAILABLE ENERGY
FOR CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT OFFSHORE AND TE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WILL HELP BRING ANY LINGERING SHWRS/TSTMS TO AN END BY
MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP SLGT CHC GOING FOR SRN PORTIONS AND THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVE. EXPECT LOW TEMPS ONCE AGAIN TO
AVERAGE FROM THE UPR 60S AND LWR 70S INLAND TO AROUND 80 AT THE
SHORES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT
OF THE ERN CONUS LATE FRI THROUGH SAT MRNG...GRADUALLY ALLOWING
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE NW. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE QUASI-STATIONARY INLAND FRONT TO MAKE BETTER PROGRESS TO
THE COAST. THAT BEING SAID...MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN AND
WEAK LEE SIDE SFC TROUGHS THAT FORM EACH MORNING AND SHIFTING TO
THE COAST EACH AFTN WILL HAVE LITTLE CHC OF WORKING WITH THE
SEABREEZE TO PRODUCE ANY CONVECTION. CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT...BUT BEST SHOT AGAIN RESIDES OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA
BOTH FRI AND SAT WHERE FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD BE A LITTLE BETTER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SRN PLAINS SUN WILL
OCCUR UNDER A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE ROCKIES AND THIS COMPLEX
SYSTEM WILL SHIFT E THROUGH THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND THE MID ATLC
STATES SUN-WED. DEEPENING MOISTURE...HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS AND
SEVERAL WAVES OF MID LVL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES OF SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION
BUT IT IS SAFE TO SAY A MORE ACTIVE WX PERIOD CAN BE EXPECTED.
HAVE NUDGED POPS INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS WITH 20 PERCENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWER THICKNESS
AND MORE CLOUD/RAIN COMPLICATIONS WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS DOWN TO THE
LWR 90S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
TONIGHT. RISK FOR CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW AT BOTH
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED
CLOSE TO THE COAST FOR MOST OF THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THUS
ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COASTAL TAF CORRIDOR...
BUT PROBABLY TO THE S OF KSAV. THE LATEST RUC AND LOCAL WRF MODELS
SUGGEST MENTIONING A LATE DAY FEW CB MENTION AT KSAV MAY NOT BE
A BAD IDEA AT THIS JUNCTURE...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF A WEAK SHORT
WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE W AND SOME MORNING ACCAS
SHOWING UP ON THE FIRST VSBL SATELLITE IMAGES IN S GEORGIA.
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM NEAR THE TERMINALS 02Z-06Z/03 IN
PROXIMITY TO A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS BISECTING THE SEA
BREEZE/DEW POINT BOUNDARY. AGAIN....VERY SMALL CHANCES. LIGHTER
WINDS AT THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT COULD SPELL SOME LIGHT FOG
NEAR AN APPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGH...NOT ENOUGH SOLID EVIDENCE
FOR MENTIONS IN OUR TAFS AS YET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
SAT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES.
&&
.MARINE...
WE UPDATED OUR FORECAST AROUND DAWN THIS MORNING TO LOWER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES IN OUR MARINE FORECAST AREA AS OVERNIGHT SURGING
EBBS. A MAINLY SW FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER OCEAN
WATERS THIS MORNING AS LAND REGIONS WARM.
THE PERSISTENT TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENT WILL INCITE ANOTHER
ROBUST SEA BREEZE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT WINDS TO
RESPOND ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. TONIGHT...WE HAVE ISSUED
ANOTHER SCA FOR OUR OUTER GEORGIA WATERS AS BOTH GFS/WRF SHOW
STRONG JETTING/SURGING. THE DIFFERENCE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE COAST WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE DISPLACED BY A WEAKER
GRADIENT JUST AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SE
TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SW
FLOW IN THE 15-20 RANGE LATE TODAY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKER WITHIN
20 NM TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES. THIS TREND MAY BE
DELAYED FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING AROUND GRAYS REEF AS THIS REGION
IS FURTHER FROM THE BAGGIER GRADIENT.
ON FRI...WE TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION OF KEEPING
THE FRONT FROM MAKING WHOLESALE HEADWAY THROUGH OUR WATERS. IT
PROBABLY WILL MAKE IT INTO CHARLESTON COUNTY BUT ANY FURTHER S IS
QUESTIONABLE. THE MAIN FLAVOR OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE A
TREND TOWARD LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS DESPITE SOME VARIABILITY IN
DIRECTIONS AND SEAS MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS.
WINDS AND SEAS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN BY MON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE MID ATLC REGION FROM THE W.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCAE 021118
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
718 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE CAROLINAS. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WHICH SPAWNED A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST TODAY WITH DRIER AIR PERSISTING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY TODAY WITH PWAT VALUES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE ONE
INCH MARK. COMBINE THAT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY
OR TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SITUATION WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO CHANGE AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN
SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BEGINS TO TRACK EASTWARD. ALTHOUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN US WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING
EASTWARD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES CONCERNING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HOWEVER
ALL MODELS AGREE ON THE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF AS THE GFS HAS MADE SOME
LARGE SCALE CHANGES OVER THE PAST RUN WHILE THE ECMWF HAS REMAINED
CONSISTENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE DURING THE LONG TERM...WITH THE GFS
BEING AN OUTLIER AS CHANGES OVER THE PAST RUN ARE SUSPECT. LONG
TERM FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD ECMWF WHICH BRINGS THE BOUNDARY INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND STALLS THE FEATURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE LONG TERM. AS SUCH HAVE INCREASED POPS AND CLOUDS
FOR THE LONG TERM WITH FEW OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FURTHER DRYING BEHIND
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE. THE DRY AIR MASS AND MIXING
SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. USED THE MAV
AND MET MOS FOR THE WIND FORECAST.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KFFC 020958
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
558 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTING S OVER CENTRAL GA WILL GIVE SMALL CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR S COUNTIES OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DRIFTING TO S GA ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THE UPPER FLOW FOR POSSIBLE STRONGER SHORT WAVES THAN MODELS
INDICATING. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE TAKES CHARGE
ON FRIDAY AND THIS IS BEST SHOWN ON THE NAM.
HIGHS TEMPERATURES 2 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT 2 NIGHTS.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MUCH MORE UNSETTLED THIS PERIOD.
THE UPPER FLOW COULD BE MORE ACTIVE ON SATURDAY WITH NORTH GEORGIA
THE BEST POSSIBLE TARGET FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW STRONG THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE AND CAN ANY SHORT WAVES
AFFECT NORTH GEORGIA OR WILL THEY STAY TO THE NORTH. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTINUE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR SOME OF THE FORECAST AREA AS AN
UPPER TROUGH LINGERS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE DIFFERING WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS.
BDL
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NOT EXPECTING ANY LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RH TODAY BUT SOME RH`S COULD
GET BELOW 25 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL GA. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER
N GA AND MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GA MOUNTAINS. SOME
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. GENERALLY RH`S A LITTLE HIGHER
AND WINDS A LITTLE LESS FOR FRIDAY.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
SKIES VFR AND GENERALLY CLEAR ASIDE FROM A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 6-8KFT
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK COLD / QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
ALONG AN AUGUSTA-FORT BENNING LINE THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTH THROUGH TODAY SOMEWHAT ENHANCING THE MORE SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS
IN THAT AREA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF MCN/CSG
AS HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
RRH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 94 66 91 65 91 / 5 5 5 5 20
ATLANTA 91 68 89 68 90 / 5 5 5 5 20
BLAIRSVILLE 84 61 83 60 82 / 5 10 0 5 40
CARTERSVILLE 92 61 90 60 91 / 0 5 0 5 30
COLUMBUS 95 70 94 68 94 / 5 5 5 0 20
GAINESVILLE 89 67 87 67 87 / 0 5 0 5 30
MACON 97 67 95 64 96 / 5 5 5 0 20
ROME 92 64 90 63 91 / 0 5 0 5 40
PEACHTREE CITY 92 63 90 61 91 / 5 5 5 5 20
VIDALIA 97 71 95 70 95 / 10 10 10 0 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCAE 020800
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
400 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE CAROLINAS. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WHICH SPAWNED A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST TODAY WITH DRIER AIR PERSISTING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY TODAY WITH PWAT VALUES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE ONE
INCH MARK. COMBINE THAT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY
OR TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SITUATION WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO CHANGE AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN
SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BEGINS TO TRACK EASTWARD. ALTHOUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN US WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING
EASTWARD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES CONCERNING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HOWEVER
ALL MODELS AGREE ON THE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF AS THE GFS HAS MADE SOME
LARGE SCALE CHANGES OVER THE PAST RUN WHILE THE ECMWF HAS REMAINED
CONSISTENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE DURING THE LONG TERM...WITH THE GFS
BEING AN OUTLIER AS CHANGES OVER THE PAST RUN ARE SUSPECT. LONG
TERM FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD ECMWF WHICH BRINGS THE BOUNDARY INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY AND STALLS THE FEATURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE LONG TERM. AS SUCH HAVE INCREASED POPS AND CLOUDS
FOR THE LONG TERM WITH FEW OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FURTHER DRYING BEHIND
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE. THE DRY AIR MASS AND MIXING
SHOULD HELP PREVENT EARLY MORNING FOG. USED THE MAV AND MET MOS FOR
THE WIND FORECAST.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KFFC 020756
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
355 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTING S OVER CENTRAL GA WILL GIVE SMALL CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR S COUNTIES OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DRIFTING TO S GA ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THE UPPER FLOW FOR POSSIBLE STRONGER SHORT WAVES THAN MODELS
INDICATING. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE TAKES CHARGE
ON FRIDAY AND THIS IS BEST SHOWN ON THE NAM.
HIGHS TEMPERATURES 2 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT 2 NIGHTS.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MUCH MORE UNSETTLED THIS PERIOD.
THE UPPER FLOW COULD BE MORE ACTIVE ON SATURDAY WITH NORTH GEORGIA
THE BEST POSSIBLE TARGET FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW STRONG THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE AND CAN ANY SHORT WAVES
AFFECT NORTH GEORGIA OR WILL THEY STAY TO THE NORTH. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTINUE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR SOME OF THE FORECAST AREA AS AN
UPPER TROUGH LINGERS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE DIFFERING WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NOT EXPECTING ANY LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RH TODAY BUT SOME RH`S COULD
GET BELOW 25 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL GA. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER
N GA AND MAINLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GA MOUNTAINS. SOME
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. GENERALLY RH`S A LITTLE HIGHER
AND WINDS A LITTLE LESS FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 94 66 91 65 91 / 5 5 5 5 20
ATLANTA 91 68 89 68 90 / 5 5 5 5 20
BLAIRSVILLE 84 61 83 60 82 / 5 10 0 5 40
CARTERSVILLE 92 61 90 60 91 / 0 5 0 5 30
COLUMBUS 95 70 94 68 94 / 5 5 5 0 20
GAINESVILLE 89 67 87 67 87 / 0 5 0 5 30
MACON 97 67 95 64 96 / 5 5 5 0 20
ROME 92 64 90 63 91 / 0 5 0 5 40
PEACHTREE CITY 92 63 90 61 91 / 5 5 5 5 20
VIDALIA 97 71 95 70 95 / 10 10 10 0 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BDL
000
FXUS62 KCHS 020732
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
332 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PERSIST
TODAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT...STALLING OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THEN
RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN
LINGER NEAR THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH ITS LONGWAVE
TROUGH EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE ERN 1/3 OF THE LOWER 48 WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TDA/ AT THE SFC...ANOTHER DAILY LEE SIDE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TWD THE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT
SLOWLY SAG S FROM THE UPSTATE TWD THE COAST...BUT IT LOOKS TO
REMAIN INLAND THROUGH THE DAY TDA AS THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPETUS TO PUSH IT TO THE COAST. THE AIRMASS REMAINS ON
THE DRY SIDE TDA WITH PWATS LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES. AM HAVING A
HARD TIME DEPICTING WHERE...IF ANY...TSTMS WOULD DEVELOP AS THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND NAM MODELS ARE QUITE MEAGER WITH PRECIP.
CAPPING LOOKS STRONGEST OVER THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWFA AND THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWFA SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST PENETRATION OF THE
SEABREEZE. IN ADDITION...INSTABILITY IS A BIT MORE CONCENTRATED S.
AS FAR AS MESOSCALE MODELS...THE WELL-PERFORMING NSSL WRF
HIGHLIGHTS ISOLD CONVECTION MAINLY S OF INTERSTATE 16 SO THIS IS
WHERE SLGT CHC POPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED. BOTH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND NAM ALSO INDICATE A DECENT H5 SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH DUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWFA LATE THIS AFTN...AND THIS COULD WORK WITH THE
SEABREEZE AND BETTER INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A SMALL CHC OF
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS. SPC HIGHLIGHTS MAINLY FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA FOR A 5 PERCENT CHC OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND...SO WILL ADD THIS
MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. BEST TIMING LOOKS TO BE AFTER
3 PM.
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN. MAX TEMPS AWAY FROM THE
COAST WILL BE IN THE MID 90S...WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING THE UPR
90S. NEAR THE COAST...MID 80S TO ARND 90 SHOULD BE REACHED. WITH
DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CREEPING BACK TO 70...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE
TO ARND 100 DEGREES FOR MOST SPOTS AWAY FROM THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER SWATH OF DRIER AIR WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THIS
EVE AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THOUGH THE MEANDERING
INLAND FRONT WILL REMAIN W OF THE AREA THIS EVE...AVAILABLE ENERGY
FOR CONVECTION WILL ALSO SHIFT OFFSHORE AND TE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WILL HELP BRING ANY LINGERING SHWRS/TSTMS TO AN END BY
MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP SLGT CHC GOING FOR SRN PORTIONS AND THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVE. EXPECT LOW TEMPS ONCE AGAIN TO
AVERAGE FROM THE UPR 60S AND LWR 70S INLAND TO AROUND 80 AT THE
SHORES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT
OF THE ERN CONUS LATE FRI THROUGH SAT MRNG...GRADUALLY ALLOWING
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE FROM THE NW. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE QUASI-STATIONARY INLAND FRONT TO MAKE BETTER PROGRESS TO
THE COAST. THAT BEING SAID...MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN AND
WEAK LEE SIDE SFC TROUGHS THAT FORM EACH MORNING AND SHIFTING TO
THE COAST EACH AFTN WILL HAVE LITTLE CHC OF WORKING WITH THE
SEABREEZE TO PRODUCE ANY CONVECTION. CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT...BUT BEST SHOT AGAIN RESIDES OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA
BOTH FRI AND SAT WHERE FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD BE A LITTLE BETTER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SRN PLAINS SUN WILL
OCCUR UNDER A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE ROCKIES AND THIS COMPLEX
SYSTEM WILL SHIFT E THROUGH THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND THE MID ATLC
STATES SUN-WED. DEEPENING MOISTURE...HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS AND
SEVERAL WAVES OF MIDLVL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES OF SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION
BUT IT IS SAFE TO SAY A MORE ACTIVE WX PERIOD CAN BE EXPECTED.
HAVE NUDGED POPS INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS WITH 20 PERCENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWER THICKNESS
AND MORE CLOUD/RAIN COMPLICATIONS WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS DOWN TO THE
LWR 90S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. RISK FOR CONVECTION IS TOO LOW FOR CB MENTIONS AT EITHER
TERMINAL. SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST FOR MOST OF
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THUS ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE COASTAL CORRIDOR...BUT PROBABLY TO THE S OF KSAV.
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM NEAR THE TERMINALS 02Z-06Z/03 IN
PROXIMITY TO A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS BISECTING THE SEA
BREEZE/DEW POINT BOUNDARY. AGAIN....VERY SMALL CHANCES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
SAT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WE HAVE SEEN WINDS PEAKING NEAR 20 KT AT SEVERAL NEAR
SHORE OBSERVATIONS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY OCCURRING. WE
WILL MAINTAIN OUR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL ABOUT DAWN WHEN WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER IT FOR ALL OF OUR FORECAST WATERS.
A DECENT LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENT WILL INCITE ANOTHER ROBUST SEA
BREEZE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT WINDS TO RESPOND
ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
NEED ANOTHER SCA FOR OUR OUTER GEORGIA WATERS AS BOTH GFS/WRF
SHOW STRONG JETTING/SURGING. THE DIFFERENCE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE DISPLACED BY A
WEAKER GRADIENT JUST AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
SE TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
SW FLOW IN THE 15-20 RANGE LATE TODAY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKER
WITHIN 20 NM TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHES. THIS TREND
MAY BE DELAYED FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING AROUND GRAYS REEF AS
THIS REGION IS FURTHER FROM THE BAGGIER GRADIENT.
ON FRI...WE TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION OF KEEPING
THE FRONT FROM MAKING WHOLESALE HEADWAY THROUGH OUR WATERS. IT
PROBABLY WILL MAKE IT INTO CHARLESTON COUNTY BUT ANY FURTHER S IS
QUESTIONABLE. THE MAIN FLAVOR OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE A
TREND TOWARD LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS DESPITE SOME VARIABILITY IN
DIRECTIONS AND SEAS MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS.
WINDS AND SEAS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN BY MON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE MID ATLC REGION FROM THE W.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-
352-354-374.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCAE 020525
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
125 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE CAROLINAS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASING LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED
JUST WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND
POSITIVE LI/S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN A QUASI-STATIONARY PATTERN. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...BUT DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. EXPECT THE FLOW OVER SC TO
BECOME ZONAL BY MID WEEK. MINOR SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH BUT
POPS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FURTHER DRYING BEHIND
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE. THE DRY AIR MASS AND MIXING
SHOULD HELP PREVENT EARLY MORNING FOG. USED THE MAV AND MET MOS FOR
THE WIND FORECAST.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCHS 020521
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
121 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...STALLING OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY THEN RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL THEN LINGER NEAR THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NUDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A FEW DEGREES AS THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG NOCTURNAL JETTING AND AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRECLUDE COMPLETE
DECOUPLING. EXPECT LOWS FROM AROUND 70 FAR INTERIOR WITH UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT THE BEACHES. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY NOTED
OVER THE MIDLANDS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE CIRRUS
SHIELD OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST. CLEAR SKIES
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AN ARRAY OF 12Z GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST...DRAWING THE PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE LOCATED
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE RESULTING INCREASED INSTABILITY AND PROSPECTS FOR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH JUSTIFIES
A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DUE TO THE
LINGERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR/CAP...DELAYED START
OF POPS UNTIL 3 PM...AND CONSERVATIVELY LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 SINCE THIS CHANGE
REPRESENTS A SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS RAIN-FREE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM ADVERTISES A COMBINATION OF STRONG
INSTABILITY...MID LEVEL DRY AIR/RELATIVELY LOW WET BULB HEIGHTS
AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 20-25 KNOTS SUPPORTIVE OF MULTI-CELL
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND LARGE
HAIL ACROSS AT LEAST S/SE COUNTIES...PERHAPS EVEN SPREADING NE
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE SC COAST. HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY
BE REQUIRED FOR A LARGER AREA.
THURSDAY NIGHT...12Z PROGS OF 850-500 MB MOISTURE SUGGEST THAT
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE S/E WITH
TIME...PROBABLY ADVANCING INTO THE GULF STREAM AS DRIER
AIR/SUBSIDENCE SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
LOW TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TO AVERAGE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S INLAND TO AROUND 80F AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN GA AREAS AND
FRONTAL FORCING COULD SPUR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THOSE PARTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE HOT WEATHER WILL
PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST LATE SAT INTO SUN...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE N ALLOWING THE FRONT TO LIFT N AS WELL.
LOW TO MIDDLE 70S DEWPOINTS SHOULD RETURN WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL BEGIN TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE NW FLOW. LOWER THICKNESSES AND
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS TO THE LOWER 90S...BUT
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.
CONTINUED WITH POPS IN THE 30-40 PCNT RANGE DURING THE DAY AND
SLIGHT CHANCE AT NIGHT FROM SUN THROUGH WED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. RISK FOR CONVECTION IS TOO LOW FOR CB MENTIONS AT EITHER
TERMINAL. SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST FOR MOST OF
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THUS ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE COASTAL CORRIDOR...BUT PROBABLY TO THE S OF KSAV.
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM NEAR THE TERMINALS 02Z-06Z/03 IN
PROXIMITY TO A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS BISECTING THE SEA
BREEZE/DEW POINT BOUNDARY. AGAIN....VERY SMALL CHANCES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
SAT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MON IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
18Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS...AS HIGH AS 30-35 KNOTS IN THE
950-925 MB LAYER PER THE 12Z NAM...ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
THUS...EXPECT ANOTHER NOCTURNAL SURGE OF S/SW WINDS
TONIGHT...SUPPORTING GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OUTSIDE CHARLESTON
HARBOR. MAINTAINED THE ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS BEYOND 20 NM THROUGH 8 AM THURSDAY...AND
INTRODUCED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR NEARSHORE ZONES OUTSIDE THE
HARBOR FOR THE 6 PM TO 6 AM TIME FRAME.
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF AN INLAND COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH W/SW
SYNOPTIC GRADIENT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN GIVE WAY TO A VIGOROUS SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD ADVANCE INTO THE WATERS LATE. AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONG S/SW WINDS...LIKELY
CREATING SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS. THEN...WINDS SHOULD VEER TOWARD THE W/NW AND GRADUALLY
DIMINISH LATE.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SW FLOW WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AT NIGHTTIME IN
NOCTURNAL SURGING AND THE STRONGEST COASTAL WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-
352-354-374.
&&
$$
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